2012 Season
The 2012 season was a dream come true for the Nationals. After being historically bad in 2008 and 2009, losing 100+ games both seasons, they came storming back last year, winning 98 games and taking the NL East title. In the postseason, they came within three outs of the NLCS, but were defeated by the St. Louis Cardinals. Stephen Strasburg had his first full season in the rotation after his return from Tommy John surgery and was outstanding, although the decision to shut him down after 160 innings may have overshadowed this slightly. Bryce Harper also made his highly-anticipated Major League debut, and followed it up with a fine season, with a .270/.340/.477 triple-slash and 22 homers. Ian Desmond also had a fine season at the plate, whilst the rotation of Strasburg/Gonzalez/Zimmermann/Jackson/Detwiler proved formidable. Overall, it was a fine season for the Nationals, and they will have been disappointed not to go further in the postseason.
Off-Season Moves
IN: Denard Span, Dan Haren, Rafael Soriano, Zach Duke
OUT: Sean Burnett, Edwin Jackson, Michael Morse, Chien-Ming Wang, Tom Gorzelanny
Overview: The Nationals didn't have many needs to address heading into the 2013 season, but they made a few moves anyway. Denard Span will play center field and likely bat lead-off, giving them some extra speed and allowing Harper to play left field full time. Dan Haren was a nice addition on a one-year deal, as his nightmare 2012 season could be down to injury rather than lack of stuff. The team already had two good 9th inning options in Tyler Clippard and Drew Storen, but they gave Soriano a two-year deal to give them a deadly trifecta for the back-end of games. Sean Burnett and Tom Gorzelanny were excellent from the bullpen last season, but none of the departures are serious losses for this team, so if anything they appear to have improved. Overall grade: 6/10.
| Projected Opening Day Line-up | ||
|---|---|---|
| Position | Player | Projected stat line (OBP/SLG/WAR) |
| CF | Denard Span | .350/.379/2.9 |
| RF | Jayson Werth | .367/.440/1.9 |
| LF | Bryce Harper | .347/.476/4.7 |
| 3B | Ryan Zimmerman | .359/.486/4.2 |
| 1B | Adam LaRoche | .334/.471/1.7 |
| SS | Ian Desmond | .326/.445/3.3 |
| 2B | Danny Espinosa | .327/.434/2.9 |
| C | Wilson Ramos | .324/.426/1.7 |
| Projected rotation | ||
|---|---|---|
| Starter | Player | Projected stat line (IP/ERA/WAR) |
| 1 | Stephen Strasburg | 208/2.68/4.4 |
| 2 | Gio Gonzalez | 202/3.21/4.6 |
| 3 | Jordan Zimmermann | 190/3.32/2.9 |
| 4 | Ross Detwiler | 183/3.98/1.5 |
| 5 | Dan Haren | 218/3.47/3.2 |
Position Players
This is a team full of talent throughout the line-up, and with every player projected to have WAR higher than 1.7 it's easy to see why they won 98 games last season. The leader of the team is third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, who's younger than he seems at 28. He had a good year in 2012, with a .282/.346/.478 triple-slash line, although that partly disguises the full story. He struggled with a shoulder injury through the first part of the year, spending a couple of weeks on the DL and slugging .345, .357 and .336 in April, May and June with a total of 5 home runs. On June 24th he received a cortisone shot for the pain, and immediately began to crush the ball, slugging .752 in July with 10 round-trippers. He hit .319 in the second half, with 17 homers, and a jump in OPS from .694 to .945. If the shoulder issue is now behind him, he could be primed to put up monster stats.
The other big weapon in this offense is 20 year-old Bryce Harper, who struggled through a poor July and August to finish the season on a tear, slugging .651 in September. This propensity for quick adjustment is something that has been with him throughout his minor league career, and is one reason scouts believe he is a future MVP winner. He has prodigious power for a player his age, hitting 22 home runs last season, and 40 homer years may be on the horizon sooner rather than later. Managing his emotions may be an issue, with the world at his feet at the tender age of 20, but Nationals fans have reasons to be ecstatic when this name is set to be pencilled in at number three in the line-up for the next 5 years and beyond.
Jayson Werth was quietly good at the end of last season, as he posted a .300/.387/.440 triple-slash in 81 games. If he can produce like that he'll be a valuable hitter at the top of the line-up. Ian Desmond broke out in 2012, hitting .292 with 25 homers and 21 steals despite missing 22 games. He doesn't walk a lot and the strikeout rate is a concern, but if he can come close to repeating those stats he'll be a stud. Catcher Wilson Ramos was able to play just 25 games in 2012 until a torn ACL ended his year prematurely. He has the potential to be a valuable player, but will likely form a timeshare with Kurt Suzuki whilst he regains his strength. Overall, this team has impact in the middle and depth throughout the line-up, and though there are a few question marks, they should score enough runs to be competitive with anyone. Overall grade: 7/10.
Pitching
The pitching is led by phenomenon Stephen Strasburg. His raw stuff is potentially the best in the league, with a fastball that runs up towards triple digits, a filthy breaking ball and an unfair change up. His 3.16 ERA and 1.15 WHIP to go with 197 strikeouts in 159 innings last season were a taste of his potential, and with the shackles possibly off this year, the upside is unfathomable. The 208 inning projection from Bill James seems a little high, and I expect he'll follow a similar trajectory to battery mate Jordan Zimmermann who was kept on a leash in 2012 and threw 195 innings. After performing on the periphery of ace-calibre in 2010 and 2011 with the Athletics, Gonzalez made the jump towards Cy-Young-esque stats last year, with a 2.89 ERA and 1.13 WHIP on his way to 21 wins. A big factor in this was his improved command, although his incredible low 5.8% HR/FB rate may have something to do with it, and could be cause for regression this year. Ross Detwiler was quietly superb as the number five starter in Washington last year, with a 3.40 ERA. He throws his heavy fastball an incredible 80% of the time, and it is effective against lefties in particular, limiting them to a .170 batting average. If he can improve the secondary stuff, he could be even better
The bullpen is loaded with talent, and the newly acquired Rafael Soriano will get a chance to be the permanent ninth-inning option. He saved 42 games in Mariano Rivera's absence last season, with a 2.26 ERA and 1.17 WHIP and should be a good bet for another high save total behind this high powered offense. Setting him up will be deadly right-handers Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard. Storen returned from injury to pitch in 37 games last season, and pitched well, with a 2.37 ERA and 0.99 WHIP, although his blown save in the NLDS game five may haunt him for a while. Clippard was considered one of the best set-up men in baseball heading into 2012, but was elevated to the role of closer with the injury to Storen. He excelled in the role, saving 32 games with great strikeout rates, and he'll be another reliable option in the seventh or eighth inning. Surprisingly, both he and Storen are actually more effective against left-handers, which may explain the decision to seemingly carry just one left-handed reliever on the roster this year. Also in the 'pen will be Craig Stammen, Ryan Mattheus and the hard-throwing Henry Rodriguez, with Zach Duke the sole leftie. Overall, this is a rotation with impact at the top and depth in the fourth and fifth starters. The bullpen is outstanding too, and having been one of the finest staffs in 2012, I see no reason that will change this year. Overall grade: 9/10.
Prospects
The Nationals two best prospects, Strasburg and Harper have graduated in recent years, but this is still a system with a lot of impact talent. The biggest name is probably Anthony Rendon, who has flashed glimpses of a superb all-round package at third base, but has struggled with injuries a lot. His path to the Majors is also blocked by Ryan Zimmerman, but he may find his way into the team in September or earlier depending on injuries. Christian Garcia may find his way onto the team as a reliever, but he has battled severe injury problems in recent seasons. Other than that, the big talent in Washington is a few seasons away yet, although with the big league club in its current shape there aren't many holes to fill anyway. Overall grade: 5/10.
Overview
This is a team that rather surprisingly won 98 games in 2012, but when you break down the team it is filled with valuable hitters and pitchers. Bryce Harper could be ready to put up huge numbers, and if Ryan Zimmerman's post-cortisone form continues he could be an MVP candidate. Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez provide a devastating one-two punch in the rotation, and the bullpen has three top-end relievers to call on at the end of games. I think this team competes throughout the season, and ultimately sets the pace in the NL once more. The post-season is a lottery, but this team is as good a bet as any to take home a World Series ring.
Prediction: 100-62
Gif to Watch
Strasburg's fastball and curveball are the ones that sell the seats, but his changeup is perhaps his best pitch against lefties.
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