2012 Season
After the embarrassing finish to the 2011 season, when the Red Sox contrived to throw away a healthy wildcard lead in September away on the final day of the season. Bobby Valentine took over as manager, and was an unmitigated disaster, upsetting Kevin Youkilis in April and generally upsetting most members of the clubhouse as the Red Sox lost 93 games, their worst record since 1965. A horrific 9-20 record in August sealed the fate of the Red Sox, who dealt Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett and Carl Crawford to the Dodgers on August 25th. Overall, it was a horrible disappointment of a season for the Red Sox, who will look to bounce back this year.
Off-Season Moves
IN: David Ross, Jonny Gomes, Shane Victorino, Koji Uehara, Ryan Dempster, Stephen Drew, Mike Napoli, Joel Hanrahan, John Farrell
OUT: Aaron Cook, James Loney, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Vicente Padilla, Scott Podsednik, Cody Ross, Mark Melancon, Bobby Valentine
Overview: Carrying on from their mid-season salary dump on the Dodgers, the Red Sox continued to completely revamp their roster. The focus was on bringing in 'good clubhouse guys' like David Ross and Jonny Gomes after reports that the clubhouse was a divided place with a 'toxic atmosphere'. Shane Victorino signed perhaps the worst contract of the off-season, agreeing to a three year, $39 million dollar contract despite not recording an OBP above .327 in any of the past three seasons and having almost sole value in his speed. The trade for Joel Hanrahan was an interesting one, as it was expected that Andrew Bailey would close after missing most of the 2012 season. I like the signings of Dempster and Napoli, as both are impact players that signed inexpensive contracts, and most of the main Red Sox departures can not be considered major losses. The Red Sox made a lot of noise, but didn't enter the market for any of the biggest free agents, though in retrospect saving the salary may have been a better idea. Overall grade: 6/10.
| Projected Opening Day Line-up | ||
|---|---|---|
| Position | Player | Projected stat line (OBP/SLG/WAR) |
| CF | Jacoby Ellsbury | .346/.436/2.9 |
| LF | Shane Victorino | .338/.418/3.4 |
| 2B | Dustin Pedroia | .367/.459/5.2 |
| 1B | Mike Napoli | .350/.498/2.0 |
| 3B | Will Middlebrooks | .316/.490/2.2 |
| DH | Jonny Gomes | .337/.441/0.6 |
| C | Jarrod Saltalamacchia | .309/.454/1.6 |
| RF | Jackie Bradley | .351/.419/2.1 |
| SS | Jose Iglesias | .285/.283/1.3 |
| Projected rotation | ||
|---|---|---|
| Starter | Player | Projected stat line (IP/ERA/WAR) |
| 1 | Jon Lester | 211/3.71/3.0 |
| 2 | Clay Buchholz | 205/3.64/1.5 |
| 3 | Ryan Dempster | 190/3.74/1.9 |
| 4 | Felix Doubront | 202/3.70/1.1 |
| 5 | John Lackey | 209/4.05/0.7 |
Position Players
With the departure of Adrian Gonzalez last season, the best player in this line-up is probably second baseman Dustin Pedroia. Pedroia has excellent contact rates, striking out very little, and that allows him to sustain an average north of .290, sometimes even .300. His good plate discipline allows him to maintain an OBP well above .350, and he has a good power/speed combo as he is a perennial 20/20 threat. His defense at second is also one of the best in the league. Atop the line-up will be left-handed Jacoby Ellsbury, who was unable to follow up his breakout 2011 season with a monster stat line as injuries reduced him to just 70 games. He posts a high average, with up to 40-steal speed, but there are significant question marks over his power potential, as the 32 home run 2011 campaign has been a major outlier so far. Mike Napoli played just 108 games for Texas last season, but was still able to crush 24 homers. Moving him to first base should reduce the injury risk, and with the green monster to aim for, Napoli could be in for a monster year.
Will Middlebrooks enjoyed surprising success as a rookie in 2012, hitting for a .288 average with a .509 slugging that was fuelled by 15 home runs. His season was cut short by wrist surgery, which is always a worry, and his total lack of patience at the plate suggests regression may be due. At the age of 24 he is still learning however, and should be a good source of power at the hot corner. Jonny Gomes offers no value on defense, but he does have prodigious power and has shown an ability to get on base even when the average is struggling. He is expected to lose his spot in the side once David Ortiz returns however. Jackie Bradley has enjoyed a whirlwind Spring Training (.433 average, two home runs) that has led to a spot on the opening day roster. He proved in the Minors he has excellent plate discipline, and plays elite defense in center field, so he will try to prove he is in the team to stay. Finally, Jose Iglesias is in the team purely for his glove, as he offers no value at the plate but will play slick, gold glove calibre defense up the middle with Pedroia until Stephen Drew's return from the concussion list. Overall, this line-up remains one of the stronger line-ups in the AL. Ortiz's health and form may prove crucial, but I think there are enough hitters in here to keep this team competitive in most games. Overall grade: 7/10.
Pitching
Jon Lester had a rough year in 2012, posting just a 4.82 ERA and 0.4 WAR after four consecutive seasons with a WAR greater than four. He's been lights-out in Spring Training so far, and I think he should be due a bounceback season as the workhorse of this rotation. Clay Buchholz made a successful return from injury in 2012, but was quite rusty at the start of the season, which ruined his overall stat line. A high in ERA of 3.72 in the months following May showed he was returning to form, and his spring stats suggest he may go back to his sparkling best. Ryan Dempster was one of the best pitchers in baseball for the first few months of 2012, posting a dazzling 2.25 ERA with the Cubs. After his trade to the Rangers, he began to fall apart a bit, but he is a reliable innings eater who should keep his ERA under control and keep the Sox in every game he starts. Felix Doubront had an up-and-down 2012 season, as his good start was ruined by a poor record in August and September. He has great strikeout stuff, and I think he could make a large stride forward this season as the fourth man in the rotation. John Lackey had an embarrassing season with the Red Sox last year, with a 6.41 ERA and -2.1 WAR. Reports are that he has turned up this year in much better shape, but there is no chance he will survive the year if he can't turn those stats around fast.
The bullpen will be led by newly acquired Joel Hanrahan, who had posted 76 saves in the past couple of seasons with the Pirates. He has a heavy fastball and sinker, but suffers from bad control issues that led to a 1.27 WHIP last season. In the less forgiving confines of Fenway, he'll need to stop walking hitters or he risks losing his job. Right behind him will be Andrew Bailey, who injured himself just days before the start of the 2012 season, and struggled upon his return in September. He still has the stuff that allowed him to save 75 games between 2009 and 2011, but if he wants the closer job back he'll need to bring that WHIP down to sub-one levels. Koji Uehara has spectacular stuff from the bullpen, but has been forced to battle recurring injuries over the past few seasons. If he can stay healthy he'll be an absolute steal for Boston, but that has been a big ask recently. Alfredo Aceves saved 25 games as the Red Sox interim closer last season, but struggled with command and homers, as he posted a 5.36 ERA. Junichi Tazawa was one of the highlights of the season for the Red Sox in 2012, as he carried a 1.43 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 44 innings, guaranteeing himself a shot towards the end of games. Breslow and Andrew Miller will serve as the primary left-handers, whilst Daniel Bard will look to regain his pre-2012 form after a botched rotation switch last season. The bullpen was a real area of weakness in 2012 for Boston, as only Colorado and Milwaukee blew more saves. With a strong rotation in front of them, and a more balanced staff in the 'pen, I like this staff to keep Boston in most games this year. Overall grade: 7/10.
Prospects
The top prospect in this Red Sox system, is hard-hitting shortstop Xander Bogaerts. There are questions over his defensive ability at short, but the bat is legitimate, and he has a chance to be a rare power-hitting shortstop as long as his game continues to develop. Whilst he likely won't make the team until next year at the earliest, Jackie Bradley will be the main impact prospect this season for Boston provided he gets regular at-bats. Allen Webster is their top pitching prospect, and he's probably closest to big league ready for this team, and could fill John Lackey's rotation spot if he struggles. Other than that, most talent in this system is a while away from the Majors, but the Red Sox greater focus on farm improvements in recent years has paid dividends. Overall grade: 5/10.
Overview
One look at this team tells you that it's not a 93-loss team, but they contrived to lose that many last season despite an equally strong roster. I think the rotation bounces back, and both Lester and Buchholz should be reliable innings-eaters with sub-4 ERA's. The bullpen is still a bit of a wildcard, but as long as Aceves is kept away from high pressure situations it should be an effective staff. The line-up looks weak without Ortiz's presence, but if Ellsbury can rediscover his 2011 form and a couple of the free agent signing step up big, this team should challenge all the way into September (before collapsing again).
Prediction: 86-76
Gif to Watch
If ever a GIF summed up a team's season, it would be this moment of athleticism from Kelly Shoppach
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