2012 Season
After an impressive 2011 campaign, in which the team finished second in the AL Central with an 80-82 record, hopes were high that this young club could take the next step. After reaching the all-star break at 44-41, the club was ready for a late push towards contention, but a disastrous second half record of 24-53 gave them an ugly overall record of 68-94, good for fourth in the division. Ultimately, this collapse led to the dismissal of Manny Acta, with the 5-24 record in August a particular eye-sore. There were bright spots, with Jason Kipnis showing flashes of his potential in his first full season, hitting 14 homers and swiping 31 bases, whilst Carlos Santana established himself as the side's best hitter on offense with a .252/.365/.420 triple-slash to go with 18 homers. Ultimately however, the rotation was a liability and the offense lacked fire-power as a team that promised so much fell so disastrously short.
Off-Season Moves
IN: Terry Francona, Mark Reynolds, Mike Avilies, Michael Bourn, Nick Swisher, Drew Stubbs, Trevor Bauer
OUT: Travis Hafner, Casey Kotchman, Jack Hannahan, Jason Donald, Shin-Soo Choo
Overview: A monster off-season for the Ohio club. The signing of Terry Francona made sense; he was widely considered the best manager on the market. They have completely revamped the offense, with free agent signings Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn the two biggest splashes. It sounds odd to say it, but I think Swisher was underrated with the Yankees, as his OBP is consistently well over .350 and he has 20-25 home run power. Bourn gives this team an excellent defensive outfield, but also a replacement lead-off hitter, and whilst his skills have declined a bit he's still a perennial 50-steal threat. Stubbs struggled to find any consistency with the bat in Cincinnati, although if the Indians can find a way to turn his sub-.220 average around they have a 20/40 threat in their ranks. The loss of Choo was a big one, but the acquisition of Bauer in return makes a lot of sense as he is a stud pitching prospect that should address the starting needs. Overall, this was a bold and generally excellent off-season for the Indians, as they bolstered the entire squad without overpaying. Overall grade: 9/10.
| Projected Opening Day Line-up | ||
|---|---|---|
| Position | Player | Projected stat line (OBP/SLG/WAR) |
| CF | Michael Bourn | .344/.363/3.7 |
| SS | Asdrubal Cabrera | .341/.430/3.2 |
| 2B | Jason Kipnis | .351/.429/2.6 |
| RF | Nick Swisher | .362/.458/2.4 |
| C | Carlos Santana | .383/.476/4.4 |
| 1B | Mark Reynolds | .336/.463/0.8 |
| LF | Michael Brantley | .344/.379/2.2 |
| 3B | Lonnie Chisenhall | .310/.433/1.6 |
| DH | Drew Stubbs | .319/.386/1.2 |
| Projected rotation | ||
|---|---|---|
| Starter | Player | Projected stat line (IP/ERA/WAR) |
| 1 | Justin Masterson | 204/4.01/2.9 |
| 2 | Ubaldo Jimenez | 170/3.97/2.3 |
| 3 | Brett Myers | 79/3.76/2.3 |
| 4 | Zach McAllister | 170/4.50/1.3 |
| 5 | Scott Kazmir | 56/5.98/-0.3 |
Position Players
The best player in this line-up is Carlos Santana, the 26 year old switch hitting catcher. Although he took a step forward in average and OBP in 2012, he actually took a step back in power after his 27 homer 2011 season. There's no doubt he has a lot of pop from both sides of the plate, and he'll likely be one of the best slugging backstops in the Majors for years to come. The one area of his game in which he excels is his plate discipline, as he drew 91 walks in 2012, contributing to an OBP more than 100 points above his average. Bill James projections has him improving further in 2013, and if he can up the average and power a bit he could be right up there with Posey. Asdrubal Cabrera regressed a little from his monster 2011 numbers, but with a .270/.338/.423 triple-slash he was far from hopeless at the plate. Swisher looks likely to hit clean-up this season, and whilst he may have some power sapped away from the comfortable confines of Yankee Stadium (particularly given he hit 19 of his 24 homers from the left side in 2012) he should be a reliable producer.
Mark Reynolds regressed a little from his usual standards in 2012, as the homer count fell from 37 to 23. The .221 batting average level doesn't look likely to bounce up any time soon, and though the high walk rate allows him to maintain a respectable OBP, he'll need to hit for more pop in 2013 because he is not a plus defender. Michael Brantley was actually a fine performer in 2012, with a .288/.348/.402 triple-slash. He doesn't have much in the way of power or speed, but gets on base and plays good defense in the outfield. Lonnie Chisenhall was once a top prospect, but has had to contend with injuries and a time-share with Jack Hannahan over the past couple of seasons. With Hannahan now out of the way, the job is Chisenhall's to lose, but last year's .268/.311/.430 triple-slash will need to improve. Overall, this is a line-up with quite a bit of power, and I think it will be more productive than last season. If guys like Santana and Kipnis can become all-stars then this could be a line-up that is quietly excellent. Overall rating: 7/10.
Pitching
The pitching was a real disappointment in 2012 for the Indians, with a 5.25 ERA in the rotation. Justin Masterson had a superb 2011 season, but suffered greatly with inconsistency in 2012, bringing his hard sinking fastball one week and hanging sliders the next. He still has a good groundball to flyball ratio, but will need to bring that ugly ERA down towards 3 and be this teams ace. Behind him will be Ubaldo Jimenez, who had a WAR of -1 in 2012. With 17 losses he was a major disappointment, and his Cy Young days in the Rockies rotation seem to be behind him. The projection system appears to have him bouncing back, but he'll need to correct his horrific walk issues. Brett Myers spent the entire 2012 season in a relief role, but has been stretched out to earn a spot in the Cleveland rotation. His stuff isn't lights-out, but he should eat some innings without hurting the team. Zach McAllister showed signs of promise in his first season as part of the rotation, but he'll look to improve the 4.24 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. Reducing the 19 homers should be a priority. Kazmir's comeback story is a nice one, but he should just be a stop-gap option until Bauer is ready to enter the rotation.
The bullpen will once again lean on Chris Perez to be the closer, after a 39 save 2012 campaign. The ERA and WHIP aren't world-beating at 3.59 and 1.13 respectively, but he has become a pretty reliable option at the end of games. Pitching the eighth inning will be one of the top set-up options in baseball in the form of 28 year-old Vinnie Pestano. He carried on from a dominant 2011 campaign by sporting a 2.57 ERA and 1.10 WHIP to go with 36 holds and 76 K's. Opponents hit just .167 off his slider, and there are no signs that he'll be any less effective this season. Newly acquired veteran Matt Albers had a solid 2012 season across two organisations, with a 2.39 ERA in 60 innings. The team will be hoping Nick Hagadone can get over his poor 2012 performance to become the bullpen's main left-hander with the departure of Tony Sipp, but that is one area in which the bullpen is weak. Both Bryan Shaw and Scott Barnes will also be part of a much improved bullpen that struggled with its workload in 2012. Overall, this is a weak pitching staff. The rotation has holes from 1 through 5, and unless Masterson can find some consistency and Jimenez at least reduces his ERA by a couple of runs the rotation will be weak again. The 'pen has some nice options at the end of games, but if it is put in a hole by the starters, it will not have much of a chance to make a difference. Overall grade: 3/10.
Prospects
The main prospect for 2012 will be pitching prodigy Trevor Bauer. Bauer fell out with the D-Backs management during his short stay in the Majors, and there are some concerns over his make-up and his ability to listen to others. In terms of his stuff, however, there are no doubts, with a fastball running up to 97mph, a hard-breaking curveball and a good idea of how to attack hitters. He needs work on attacking the strike zone, but he could become a legitimate ace. The 2012 first round pick Francisco Lindor impressed all scouts with his work at A-level ball, and he looks like he might have a chance to become an excellent everyday shortstop who could grow into power, speed and gold glove defense. The Indians are stacked for shortstop prospects, with five in their top 10 prospects including Lindor. For 2013, there is little more to look forward to other than Bauer's arrival however, and the Indians will need to draft well again this season before this system can become a real strength. Overall grade: 4/10.
Overview
On paper, this is a team that should exceed it's 68-94 record from a year ago. The line-up has plenty of above average everyday players, with guys like Santana, Kipnis, Bourn, Cabrera and Swisher all competent at the plate. In the rotation, there are still serious question marks, but I think Masterson will improve and Bauer will be an upgrade when he makes it to the Majors. For all their off-season moves they aren't really close to competing with the Tigers, but they're heading in the right direction.
Prediction: 79-83
Gif to Watch
One reason fans are excited to see Bauer reach the Majors is his incredible repertoire of pitches. He throws up to seven different pitches at different times, and one of the more bizarre of those pitches is his 'reverse slider':
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