Winter Plans: Minnesota Twins

The 2014 Story

The Twins remain firmly in rebuild mode, with a bunch of below-average starters and a line-up that is inconsistent, although potent on it's day. It's 62-82 record currently leaves it on target to have a top five pick heading into next years draft which will be a bonus for a team that has a decent number of young players filtering up to the Major League level, and should be able to compete as soon as 2016 or 17. Brian Dozier has been a bright spot on offense, going 20/20 from the second base position, although he has slowed down since the all star break. Phil Hughes has proven to be an astute signing for the Twins, as he has cut his walk rate down to one of the best in the league, and his fly ball tendencies have held up much more favourably in expansive Target Field than in Yankee Stadium. With no other starter able to post an ERA lower than 4.27 however, this has been another disappointing year for Twins fans.

Major Potential Free Agents

Jared Burton ($3.6m option, $200k buyout)

The Twins have a pretty young roster, and the veterans they do have are locked up to long term deals. Burton hasn't had a great 2014 campaign, so it seems unlikely the Twins will exercise this option with their closer Glen Perkins locked up for the foreseeable future.

Off-Season Plan

Hitting: The Twins locked up Kurt Suzuki for the next couple of years a few weeks ago, and so he will presumably share time with Josmil Pinto in 2015. Pinto has shown flashes of offensive ability while Suzuki is a known asset so those two will be at least replacement level for the Twins. Joe Mauer's battles with injury have moved him out from behind the plate, but even at first base he has struggled to stay on the field and his bat has suffered as a consequence. The $23m a year contract he's signed to looks worse and worse every season, but the Twins will continue to roll him out at first base in 2015. Dozier will continue at second base as he remains pre-arbitration while Danny Santana has impressed enough at shortstop to continue there in 2015, with Eduardo Escobar a useful utility guy. Trevor Plouffe will be arbitration eligible once again but should remain at third base for the Twins as the bridge to uber-prospect Miguel Sano who has missed the entire season with Tommy John surgery but could see the Majors by the end of 2015.

In the outfield, Oswaldo Arcia has enough power and promise to be given the right field job once again, but a 30% strikeout rate and .576 OPS against left-handers suggests there are many areas of improvement for the 23 year old left-hander. Aaron Hicks elite walk rate and outstanding center field defense suggests he has a future in the Majors, although with non-existent power this season he remains a long way from the promise he showed as a prospect. With Byron Buxton battling injuries this season, his arrival in Minnesota has been delayed, likely until 2016 but he will be the future face of the franchise. The Twins have holes in left field and at designated hitter, but may choose to go with internal options like Jordan Schafer and Kennys Vargas in order to see what they have for the future, although a veteran signing like Nori Aoki or Jonny Gomes isn't out of the question.

Pitching: Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco will both return, signed to long term deals, while Kyle Gibson has shown enough flashes of potential to have an opening day rotation spot all but secured. Tommy Milone was an intriguing acquisition, not least because his skillset should thrive in spacious Target Field, so he should get a chance to be the teams primary left-handed starter provided he impresses in Spring Training. With both Trevor May and Alex Meyer having impressive seasons in AAA however, the Twins may choose to give their young players a chance in the hope they can turn into front-of-the-rotation starters by the time the Twins are looking to compete. Some bullpen arms like Matt Belisle, Ronald Belisario and Luke Hochevar may be pursued through free agency, but it seems highly unlikely that the Twins will make a major splash.

Trade Possibilities

The Twins have an outstanding farm system, but looking to build for the future, it would make no sense to deal away from that strength. Instead, they may look to deal veterans like Kurt Suzuki, Brian Dozier and Phil Hughes in an attempt to gain more young talent. Obviously they would love to get out of the Joe Mauer contract, but no team will want to take him on, and as the face of the team management wouldn't want to deal him away, as much as it makes sense from a baseball standpoint. Brian Dozier would earn a lot of interest on the trade market from teams like the Athletics, Orioles and Giants and if the Twins could get one of the Orioles big three pitching prospects or Andrew Susac from the Giants they should definitely pull the trigger. Phil Hughes has built up a lot of trade value with his impressive season and team-friendly contract, and so if the Twins can grab a couple of solid prospects they should be open to dealing him away.

Overview

The Twins are in full-on rebuild mode, and they have the farm system to make it work. They should give auditions to as many young players as possible in 2015, and look to deal away veterans when they can. With another solid draft class and some clever deals and signings, the Twins could be AL Central favourites by 2018, with the backbone of a dynasty.

Winter Plans: Detroit Tigers

The 2014 Story

The perennial AL Central favourites, the Tigers entered the season as World Series favourites in some peoples eyes, and their mid-season acquisition of David Price seemed to confirm they were the team to beat in the American League. However, things haven't quite gone entirely to plan. The KC Royals have spoiled the party since late July and with just 19 games left in the regular season, they are currently set to miss out on the play-offs altogether. KC has a two game lead in the division, although with a massive series starting today at Comerica that could all change very quickly. Meanwhile, the AL West currently has two wildcard teams in the A's and M's, so the Tigers are no surefire play-off team. Miguel Cabrera has been unable to replicate his MVP form, while Justin Verlander has lost the stuff that made him a top-of-the-rotation starter. Victor Martinez and Max Scherzer are both having monster years, but with both set to hit free agency, it could be a matter of now or never for this group of Tigers.

Major Potential Free Agents

Alex Avila, C
Torii Hunter, OF
Victor Martinez, 1B/DH
Max Scherzer, SP

There are a few major losses for the Tigers to deal with this Winter, with the most notable being AL Cy Young winner Max Scherzer who has followed up his tremendous 2013 performance with a superb 2014 campaign. He should earn himself a huge payday in free agency, and with $168m already guaranteed to Verlander through 2019, it seems unlikely the Tigers will have the resources to retain his services. I'm not really sure what the status of Alex Avila's contract is, as his vesting option for 2015 won't be met but the Tigers may be able to work out a deal as they did before the 2014 season at a decent discount. Both Hunter and Martinez are old players who have lost most of their value in the field, but Martinez has been one of the AL's best hitters this season, and his departure will leave a big void in the Detroit line-up.

Off-Season Plan

Hitting: If the Tigers do indeed allow Avila to walk, that will leave them a hole at catcher. 24 year old James McCann has had two straight good seasons at AA and AAA and is refined enough behind the plate to be given a chance in an everyday role next season, although the Tigers may choose to pursue the likes of David Ross or Geovany Soto as at least an insurance option. Cabrera and Kinsler are both locked up long term, while 2015 will see the return of Jose Iglesias who impressed with his magic glovework in 2013 and will presumably be given a chance once again to start everyday. In the outfield is where the Tigers will need to improve. With Austin Jackson departing via trade and Torii Hunter hitting free agency, the Tigers are more grateful than ever to have profited from the breakout of J.D. Martinez who has had a massive year with the Tigers, slashing .306/.351/.543 and looks like a steal for Detroit. Rajai Davis is under contract for 2015 but would ideally be used in a platoon, whilst the Tigers still need an everyday center fielder and DH.

An intriguing option for the Tigers would be Colby Rasmus, who has never managed to live up to his lofty expectations as a prospect. After a breakout 2013, Rasmus has taken a huge step back this season, striking out in nearly a third of his plate appearances and not even playing great defense in the outfield. B.J. Upton serves as an eerily similar comparison that will scare teams off, but if the Tigers can sign him to a 3 year deal without ridiculous money he's worth a gamble, with 5 WAR upside and platoon with Davis downside. Michael Cuddyer could be a nice option for the Tigers, as he can play right field and first base, and would give them a hitter with similar contact abilities to Torii Hunter. The likes of Jason Kubel, Jonny Gomes and Kendrys Morales all serve as DH options on the market who could play some games in the field too.

Pitching: The Tigers have five top quality starters in their rotation, and arguably they have the worst of the four locked up to the most expensive deal. Verlander will continue in their rotation, hopefully with some improved form as it is presumed he is battling some kind of injury this year. David Price has one more year of arbitration left and will spend it in Detroit unless the Tigers are out of the running by July and choose to deal him. Max Scherzer will depart and Drew Smyly has already moved to Tampa Bay, leaving the Tigers looking a bit more vulnerable for the future than they did to start the season, but if Anibal Sanchez can return to full strength from injury and Rick Porcello continues to improve, there will only be one spot up for grabs in 2015. Robbie Ray has been disappointing between AAA and the Majors so far this season, but Dave Dombrowski gave up Doug Fister to acquire him, so he will presumably be given another next shot in 2015. Alternatively, Kyle Lobstein has impressed in his short stint at the back end of the season. It's unlikely the Tigers will make a big splash in free agency, with extending Price probably a preferred option, but the likes of James Shields and Jon Lester would vault them into the best rotation in baseball conversations should they wish to go in that direction.

The bullpen is seemingly a weakness every season for Detroit, in stark contrast to the incredible success Kansas City has enjoyed. Joe Nathan is under contract for 2015, but hasn't been at his sharpest this season with a 5.04 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. Joba Chamberlain has been strong for Detroit this season but will hit free agency, while Phil Coke will also depart having served as the teams primary left hander for the past two years. The Tigers will have to make a few dips into free agency to bolster the 'pen, and the likes of David Robertson or Casey Janssen would be great additions, albeit at a hefty price. Luke Gregerson and Burke Badenhop represent alternative solutions that may come at a lower price, but I will be shocked if the Tigers don't acquire at least one top-end reliever through free agency.

Trade Possibilities

As he proved last winter by dealing Fielder and Fister, Dave Dombrowski isn't scared of pulling the trigger on big trades, but trying to predict them is an almost impossible task. With the fourth largest payroll in the Majors, there isn't a whole lot of room for salary flexibility, although with $26m leaving the team in the form of Victor Martinez and Torii Hunter, he could yet make a splash in free agency or via trade. The farm system has been somewhat ravaged by a series of trades and free agent signings, and looks set to compete for bottom spot in most team rankings, so Dombrowski doesn't have a lot of young talent to dangle in front of other teams. If they are willing to take on more money then either Matt Kemp or Andre Ethier could be acquired from the Dodgers without giving up much talent, but it's tough to imagine the Tigers would want to cripple the payroll with another large contract.

Overview

The Tigers have one of the most talented rosters in the Majors, and the departures of some key players this Winter isn't likely to change that fact. Dombrowski will be busy in free agency, and another blockbuster trade is never out of the question. However, with a lot of money locked up in older players, the window for the Tigers may be getting smaller, so they will have to be wary of keeping half an eye on the future too, to avoid finding themselves in a similar position to the Phillies three or four years down the line.

Winter Plans: Kansas City Royals

The 2014 Story

After remaining competitive for most of 2013 before fading down the stretch, the Royals were wary of making the same mistake this season. And thus far, they've done everything in their power to avoid it. They went on a magical run in late July and early August, winning 15 of 20 and storming from a .500 record on July 23rd, seven games back of the AL Central lead to a 72-56 record on August 23rd and a three game lead in the Central. They also played host to one of the great stories in baseball this season, and now have playoff odds rated at greater than 80% by the ESPN odds tracker. Alex Gordon has been the team's MVP, with his resurgent bat and mind-boggling defense in left field, but the most noticeable contribution has come from the bullpen. Their top three arms - Greg Holland, Wade Davis and Kelvin Herrera - have combined for a 1.21 ERA in 178 innings with 224 strikeouts. For comparison sake, Clayton Kershaw's numbers in the same categories are 1.70/169/202. This is a ridiculously good 'pen.

Major Potential Free Agents

Billy Butler, 1B/DH ($12.5m option, $1m buyout)
Norichika Aoki, OF
James Shields, SP
Wade Davis, RP ($7m team option)
Luke Hochevar, RP

The Royals see a few pretty major departures from the big league club this off-season, and face a couple of tough decisions. The Wil Myers/James Shields trade has been analysed ad finitum, but it's safe to say it hasn't backfired as spectacularly as some experts expected. Shields has been everything KC could have wanted in his two seasons with them, and should earn himself a decent payday. Aoki has been a useful left-handed outfielder who will be tough to replace, and Luke Hochevar was unfortunate to suffer a second torn ACL this pre-season after dominating out of the bullpen in 2013. The Wade Davis decision has been made tricky after his spectacular 2014 campaign, but $7m for an 80 inning reliever isn't good value for money so it would shock me if KC exercised their option. Billy Butler has declined at the plate and never really grown into the power we expected, and with no value in the field I expect KC to let him hit free agency too.

Off-Season Plan

Hitting: The Royals signed young backstop Salvador Perez to a long, cheap deal in the off-season, and based on his performances in the Majors so far they got incredible value. They may need to sign a back-up as Kratz will be arbitration eligible, but with plenty of options on the market that shouldn't be hard to do. Hosmer and Moustakas have struggled with injuries and inconsistency in equal measures, but will presumably be given further chances to reach their potential next season. The middle infield will once again be covered by Infante and Escobar, with Christian Colon likely serving a utility role. Gordon and Cain will cover left and center field, with Dyson serving as an excellent platoon option and pinch runner, but the new right field hole will need filling, preferably with a right-handed bat. Nelson Cruz is an expensive option, whilst someone like Delmon Young represents a cheaper but less skilled choice. With the DH role also open, the Royals could chase an option like Kendrys Morales, Victor Martinez or Corey Hart to help bolster the line-up, but they will have to pay accordingly.

Pitching: The Royals are stacked with quality young arms, both at the Major League level and in the minors. The loss of Shields will leave them without an ace, and though I'd love to see them chase a frontline starter like Shields, Lester or Scherzer in free agency it seems unlikely they would have the salary flexibility to do so. Brandon McCarthy, Ryan Vogelsong or a reunion with Ervin Santana are cheaper right-handed options they could turn to. Jason Vargas is signed for 2015, and will join youngsters Yordano Ventura and Danny Duffy who have impressed mightily so far this year. Jeremy Guthrie isn't a great option, but as the number five he's a solid choice who can chew some innings and throw a quality start when needed. Kyle Zimmer would have been ready to enter the rotation, but having struggled with injury for almost all of this season he'll need further seasoning in the Minors, at least to start 2015. If the Royals decide he's close then they may not make such an expensive dip into free agency, as he has huge number one starter upside. The Royals will need a few new bullpen options to support Holland, but they seem to have a knack for churning out great relief arms so that shouldn't be tough for Dayton Moore and co.

Trade Possibilities

With a fairly loaded minor league system, the Royals do have the option to trade for help. The Reds will likely look to shop a starter like Cueto or Latos, and the Royals could choose to pursue that option rather than free agency although they may have to give up Zimmer or Mondesi. To fill the spare outfield spot they could look into a trade with the Dodgers, whilst Alcides Escobar may be dealt at some point in 2015 to make room for Raul Mondesi who has impressed in the minors.

Overview

The Royals have a roster devoid of superstars but full of players that can help make a championship team. If Alex Gordon continues to perform at his MVP level, Eric Hosmer takes the jump we all expected and the young rotation continues to improve this could be a sleeper team for 2015 and beyond. With a significant amount of money leaving the payroll this winter, it would shock me if the Royals weren't active in the free agent market, and as he showed in the James Shields trade, Dayton Moore isn't afraid to give up young talent in order to win now.

Winter Plans: Cleveland Indians

The 2014 Story

In 2013, Cleveland had a superb season, winning 92 games and earning themselves a spot in the one-and-done wildcard game. With few changes made over the Winter, it wasn't outrageous to expect them to challenge in the AL Central again, but with a month left to go, their chances at the post-season are getting thinner and thinner. Five games back of the wildcard, it would take something like a 15-5 streak over the next few weeks to see the Indians sneak past the Tigers, Blue Jays and Yankees and steal that second wildcard berth. The Indians have enjoyed a monster season from Michael Brantley, who has used his sweet line drive swing to great effect slashing .312/.370/.496 with 18 home runs, and has undoubtedly been the MVP of the team. Jason Kipnis has disappointed after a big 2013 campaign, whilst Carlos Santana has warmed up after an awful start at the plate and a failed project at third base. Corey Kluber has come out of nowhere to be a legitimate Cy Young candidate, striking out a batter an inning on his way to a career best 2.58 ERA. However, with the post-season looking unlikely, this may be another lost season for a franchise on the cusp of competing.

Major Potential Free Agents

Mike Aviles, INF ($3.5m option, $250k buyout)

The Indians roster is actually nicely set up, with a very youthful core and most of it's top players (Brantley, Kipnis, Santana) tied up in long team-friendly deals. Mike Aviles is a useful, versatile player who can play pretty much anywhere on the field but catcher, and with the Indians forced to pay him $250k either way, it wouldn't surprise me if they choose to exercise this option, although $3.5m is expensive for a bench player who hasn't been particularly productive this season.

Off-Season Plan

Pitching: The pitching staff has found it's new ace in the form of 28 year old Kluber, who has come into his own this year with a strong, boring two-seam fastball, a 90mph cutter with ridiculous lateral movement and a low 80's curveball that grades out as one of the nastiest pitches in the Majors. Trevor Bauer has impressed in bursts this season, and if he can refine his command he has legitimate number two starter upside. Danny Salazar struggled mightily to start the season after his impressive 2013 cameo, but has come around more of late and should have a rotation spot provided he can pitch well in Spring. T.J. House has pitched well in his time with the big league club this season, and the team may decide he's worth an extended look next season, especially given that the team is lacking in left-handed starters. Carlos Carrasco has been outstanding in the second half, striking out a batter per inning along with a 2.94 ERA, and if his strides forward are legitimate he'll be a great addition for the Indians heading into 2015. The Indians could maybe do with some depth at the position, but I think they have enough talent to cobble together a usable starting five, assuming House remains a part of their plans. A back-end starter like Kevin Correia or Chris Young would be a decent addition to bolster them in case of injury.

The bullpen has been led this season by the impressive 25 year old Cody Allen, who impressed in the set-up role last year but has not performed the same implosion Vinnie Pestano did when forced into 9th inning duty. Allen has the stuff to close out games for this team until 2019, and it seems likely the Indians will give him every chance to do so. Bryan Shaw has served as his primary set-up man this season and his 2.26 ERA in 67 innings of work will certainly play for the Indians. Mark Rzepczynski will likely continue as Cleveland's primary left-hander, and though the bullpen will need a few additions to stretch it out, it won't need an entire revamp.

Hitting: Yan Gomes has taken to everyday catching duty with vigour, proving himself an above-average defensive asset behind the plate, and continuing to mash to the tune of an .826 OPS with 17 dingers. Gomes was tied up to a long term contract last winter that keeps him an Indian until at least 2019, with two more option years looking like good value assuming he can stick behind the plate as his body ages. Carlos Santana got off to a dreadful start this season, hitting .151 in April and then .169 in May. He looked to have turned it around by hitting over .300 in June and July, but has since started to struggled at the plate again. Fortunately, he is one of the league's most patient hitters, so despite a poor .230 batting average, his .360 OBP is borderline elite, and will continue to keep him in the line-up even when he struggles. His move out from behind the plate has diminished some of his value, but he's gone from a poor defensive catcher to an above average defensive first baseman, which will allow him to be productive at that position despite a peculiar offensive profile.

Kipnis has struggled, but it's tough to see this continuing, and 2015 could be the season he puts it all together and has an MVP campaign. Lonnie Chisenhall had a two week stretch earlier this season where he was almost Bondsian, and though he hasn't kept that up all year, his .821 OPS is beyond the club's wildest dreams entering the season, and though his defensive value is questionable at best, it would surprise me if he isn't the starting third baseman on opening day. The vacant hole at shortstop appears to have arrived at the perfect time for top prospect Francisco Lindor's arrival. Lindor should be an above average player from the moment he steps on the field thanks to his outstanding defense, and his solid line drive swing and approach at the plate suggests he could become a great top of the order hitting for the Indians as soon as 2016. This Indians infield has quietly morphed into one of the best in the game.

In the outfield, Michael Bourn has put up almost identical numbers to his disappointing 2013 campaign as injuries have plagued him again and he has lost a lot of the speed that provided him with his value on the bases and in the field. The Indians have him locked up for two more seasons, so will have to roll him out there in 2015, but they will be hoping he can somehow return to the 6 win player he proved to be in 2012. Michael Brantley's great strides at the plate all seem to be legit, and he'll enter the season as the lynchpin of the Indians line-up with his sweet left-handed swing. The Indians do have a hole to fill in right field however, and with a largely left-handed line-up, a decent right handed bopper would fit the bill nicely. Nelson Cruz represents an expensive but high-upside option, whilst Torii Hunter or Josh Willingham would likely come cheaper but with less offensive profile. The designated hitter is likely to be rotated between the Indians surplus infielders, like recent acquisition Zach Walters and 21 year old second-baseman Jose Ramirez. Victor Martinez would be an enticing option to pursue in free agency however, and would make their line-up one of the more dangerous in the American League

Trade Possibilities

The Indians have a surplus of quality infielders, and could probably look to deal some of that talent (Walters, Ramirez and Aguilar) for a decent right-handed slugger, especially one that could man an outfield corner. Scott Van Slyke of the Dodgers would be a great trade target to be part of a platoon as a righty bat that destroys left-handers. The Dodgers surplus of outfielders means the Indians would probably just have to give up one of their fringy infielders to secure his services. The Indians farm system isn't particularly stacked, especially if they promote Lindor, so acquiring top talent won't be easy, and with their limited payroll the Indians can't afford to take on too much salary.

Overview

The Indians have a balanced and youthful roster, and assuming some of their young players take steps forward next season, it's not hard to imagine them competing in the AL Central once again. Health permitting, there aren't a whole lot of moves the Indians can really make, although a decent outfielder should be their priority entering the winter. If Cleveland can make a couple of shrewd moves, this team is going to generate a lot of buzz entering 2015.

Winter Plans: Texas Rangers

The 2014 Story

When I scribbled my quick divisional previews on opening day this season, I said that I expected the Rangers to be disappointing and predicted them to finish with an 83-81 record. Which just goes to show how far they have really fallen. With a 53-85 record, Texas doesn't just have the worst record in the AL West, it has the worst record in all of baseball. The team has admittedly suffered from an incredible number of injuries, leaving the roster looking like a skeleton of the original plan, but Texas were expected to compete in the West and maybe go a long way in the play-offs. That said, if you're going to lose, you may as well lose spectacularly, and with Texas currently looking likely to secure the first overall pick in the 2015 draft, this could work out as a nice way to stock the farm.

Major Potential Free Agents

J.P. Arencibia, C
Alex Rios, OF ($13.5m option)
Colby Lewis, SP

The Rangers actually have a pretty youthful roster, although whether that is out of choice or desperation is probably a pertinent question. Rios was acquired late last season from the White Sox, and although he has hit pretty well this season (.282/.313/.402), it seems unlikely the Rangers will choose to exercise the option at this price, although stranger things have certainly happened. Colby Lewis is basically an innings eater, and if the Rangers want to contend next season then he shouldn't be a part of their rotation plans.

Off-Season Plan

Hitting: The J.P. Arencibia project behind the plate did not work out well, as his bat struggled and he ended up playing at first base, which is something of an insult to paying season ticket holders. The catcher of the future is presumably prospect Jorge Alfaro, but with a lot of work to be done in the minors, he won't be part of the Rangers plans until 2016 at the earliest. Robinson Chirinos and Tomas Telis are getting an extended audition to finish this season, with the former a decent defender and the latter a possibly above-average hitter but neither particularly polished. The Rangers would be well served to get a decent veteran from free agency to at least compliment whichever of the two makes a better impression, someone like David Ross potentially fits the bill. Fielder will man first base, health permitting, and Beltre and Andrus should form a solid left side of the infield. Rougned Odor has held his own at second base this season considering he's a 20 year old getting his first taste of Major League action, but he will surely be relegated to bench duty next season when uber-prospect Jurickson Profar returns.

Leonys Martin has proven himself to be a solid center fielder for the Rangers, playing strong defense, hitting righties at a good clip and stealing bases for fun. However, after another disappointing season against left-handers it seems obvious Martin would be best utilised in a platoon. Michael Choice doesn't seem to have the glove for center field, but his bat would profile well in a platoon with Martin. Alternatively, Chris Young will be available on the free agent market. Shin-Soo Choo will presumably slide over to right field if Rios departs, leaving a gap in left field which can be filled by another internal platoon (Robertson/Adduci) or via the external market with Melky Cabrera probably a little out of their price range but an ideal solution. The Rangers have a lot of high upside outfielders making their way through the system, but none are likely to make an impact in 2015.

Pitching: Yu Darvish will presumably anchor the Rangers rotation once more, and assuming health he should return to his dominant self. Derek Holland has spent most of 2014 on the DL, but if he can make a solid set of starts this September then he should be a lock for the opening day rotation next year. Matt Harrison is under contract for several more years, but after undergoing spinal fusion surgery earlier this season, his playing career looks to be in doubt so a return in 2015 cannot be banked on. Martin Perez started the season strong but unfortunately became victim to the Tommy John epidemic, and probably won't make a full recovery in time to be ready for the start of the season. Prospect 'Chi-Chi' Gonzalez has impressed at AA this season, and a good spring combined with the Rangers desperate need for starters could propel him into the conversation. With this many question marks it's hard not to imagine the Rangers delving into the free agent market assuming they are serious about competing, and depending on how much money they have available to spend, a top starter like Scherzer or Lester would give them a massive boost for 2015 and beyond. James Shields, Francisco Liriano and Ervin Santana are all cheaper options that could provide a lot of value to the club.

The Rangers are still looking for a dominant reliever to anchor their bullpen next season. Feliz has not possessed the same stuff since his return from TJ surgery, Alexi Ogando is dominant in bursts but has struggled with injuries. David Robertson and Francisco Rodriguez are top end options that could be acquired via free agency, so it wouldn't surprise me to see the Rangers make a move there or via trade.

Trade Possibilities

Rougned Odor's decent campaign at such a young age will likely have turned some heads in other front offices, and with a logjam on the infield the Rangers could deal him to a team with a hole at second base like the Yankees or Blue Jays for some pitching help. If they decide they want to go for a full rebuild it would make sense to deal Adrian Beltre, both to create room for top prospect Joey Gallo and to earn the Rangers some salary flexibility. Beltre would command a decent haul of prospects too, but the Rangers likely won't want to trade the leader of their franchise and arguably the best third baseman in the Majors. If they decide to give up some of their talent to compete now, then they could have more options, but with more teams competitive than ever it's tough to see which top players would be available.

Overview

The Rangers are coming off a cataclysmic disaster of a season, but the good news is that if they can get players healthy again then they have the talent to compete in 2015. Finances permitting, this team should be busy in free agency as they try to build a stronger rotation and bullpen, but with so much money locked up in the Fielder, Choo and Beltre deals, the Rangers may not have as much flexibility as they would want. This will be an interesting team to watch.

Winter Plans: Seattle Mariners

The 2014 Story

The Seattle Mariners made the biggest free agent splash in the 2013 off-season, going out and signing perennial MVP candidate Robinson Cano to a mammoth 10 year, $240 million contract. The message they sent out was clear: the M's wanted to compete this year. So far this season, they have been something of a pleasant surprise, but forced to compete in what is likely the toughest division in baseball they have very little to show for it with one month left in the regular season. Their 73-63 record is good for just third in the AL West, and as things stand they are 1.5 games adrift in the wildcard race. The 5.5 game deficit to the Oakland A's is probably unbridgeable (admittedly stranger things have happened), but the Tigers and Royals are both within striking distance. The Yankees and Indians will both attempt to disrupt the M's hope of a wildcard spot, but with King Felix putting up a Cy Young calibre season and the line-up finally starting to click, the Mariners are in with a fighting chance for their first post-season berth since winning 116 games in 2001.

Major Potential Free Agents

Corey Hart, 1B
Kendrys Morales, 1B/DH
Chris Denorfia, OF
Hisashi Iwakuma, SP ($7m option)
Chris Young, SP

The Mariners don't see any huge departures from the club this winter, although they also won't get much in the way of salary relief. Corey Hart and Kendrys Morales are two of a plethora of first base/designated hitter types on the Mariners roster, and their departure will free up more playing time for the likes of Logan Morrison and Justin Smoak. Chris Denorfia was a mid-season acquisition who can hit lefties but not much else, whilst Chris Young has defied all the odds to give the M's 151 innings of strong pitching. Hisashi Iwakuma has pitched like an ace with the Mariners, so they will presumably exercise the option and keep him on board for another season, or perhaps sign an extension in the off-season.

Off-Season Plan

Hitting: The Mariners are sorted at three of the five positions on the diamond, with Zunino embedded behind the plate, Seager improving every season at the hot corner and Cano providing some pop at second base. At shortstop, the M's have been indecisive in previous seasons, trialling top prospect Nick Franklin but quickly moving on to Brad Miller when Franklin struggled. This season, Miller has been awful and Franklin traded, but in Chris Taylor the M's think they've found a possible answer. Taylor has hit well since joining the big league club, and though his defense is somewhat suspect, it's safe to presume he'll at least be starting there on opening day 2015 unless the M's go for broke and sign someone like Hanley Ramirez. The outfield has been strengthened this season by the acquisition of Austin Jackson. Jackson will be arbitration eligible this off-season, before becoming a free agent for 2016, so the M's may look to wrap him up to a long term deal. Dustin Ackley has finally found a home in left field and has begun to hit like he was expected to. The M's could do with another outfielder/designated hitter type, so someone like Nelson Cruz could be an attractive option for a line-up lacking in right-handed power, or Josh Willingham/Jonny Gomes if they wish to pursue a cheaper option.

Pitching: Felix Hernandez's massive contract that sees him locked up as an M until 2020 still looks pricey, but with King Felix asserting himself as the AL's best starter, it's not hard to see why he earned such a big payday. Iwakuma will be back, at least for 2015, and Roenis Elias has probably shown enough promise to pencil himself in for the starting five. Taijuan Walker and James Paxton are two high-ceiling prospects who have battled injury issues this season but should get a chance in the rotation assuming health. The M's could still use a back-end starter, at least as insurance, and so the likes of Kyle Kendrick, Ryan Vogelsong and Aaron Harang may be good fits for their spacious home ballpark. The bullpen will be led once again by Fernando Rodney, whilst Danny Farquhar and Tom Wilhelmsen will back him up. Charlie Furbush and Lucas Luetge will continue as the main left-handers, so it seems unlikely that the M's will make much of a foray into the free agent relief market.

Trade Possibilities

The M's don't have a particularly stacked minor league system, with their best prospects likely playing roles in the Majors next season. Danny Hultzen will try to make a return from serious shoulder surgery, whilst D.J,. Peterson is an exciting infield prospect, but neither will be able to command much in major league talent. If the M's fail to make the play-offs and decide to go for a mini rebuild, the likes of Iwakuma and Jackson could give them a decent haul of young talent, but with Cano and King Felix likely declining in the coming years their window of opportunity is getting smaller. If they want to bolster the team, then a trade for a starting pitcher is probably the best way to go, and the Reds will likely be looking to deal Latos or Cueto, so if the M's can put together an enticing enough package that could be a possibility. Marlon Byrd could also be a possible trade target to give the M's some right-handed pop, and given the Phillies need to rebuild and Byrd's poor contract they wouldn't have to give up too much in the way of prospects assuming Ruben Amaro Jr actually wants to improve his team. Zduriencik earned himself a large extension this week, but he's going to have to prove why by putting together a winning roster.

Overview

The M's have a good but not great team, and a quick glance at their players, salary and market suggests there aren't many ways for them t change that heading into 2015. There aren't many gaping holes in the roster, but a few shrewd moves in the outfield and pitching staff could put them in better shape if they want to compete with the A's and Angels. There's a lot of pressure on this team to compete now, but being able to do so looks unlikely to me.

Winter Plans: Oakland Athletics

The 2014 Story

After the Oakland A's shocked the baseball world two years running by winning the AL West despite a limited payroll, it has almost come as no surprise to see them setting the pace in their division once again in 2014. However, after disappointing early play-off exits in both the last two seasons, Billy Beane has gone to some lengths to ensure that his roster is in the best shape possible entering October. Mid-season acquisitions Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel haven't quite worked out as expected considering Oakland gave up their two very best prospects, including one of the best in baseball in the form of Addison Russell. However, his blockbuster trade with Boston saw Jon Lester join the A's on the trade deadline, and he has even acquired ageing left-handed slugger Adam Dunn to try and boost his team's post-season chances. The Angels have begun to stretch out a lead in the West, increasing the chances the A's will face a tough wildcard test, potentially against their nemesis Detroit, but this is a team that is built to win in 2014.

Major Potential Free Agents

Nick Punto, INF
Jed Lowrie, SS
Alberto Callaspo, 3B/2B
Jonny Gomes, LF
Sam Fuld, LF
Jason Hammel, SP
Jon Lester, SP
Luke Gregerson, RP

The one downside to going for broke in 2014 is that it will leave the A's with a pretty barren roster heading into 2015. It will however take $42m in salaries off the Oakland payroll leaving them with a reasonable amount of financial flexibility heading into the free agent market.

Off-Season Plan

Hitting: The A's will have a number of decisions to make on the infield, with their starting middle infielders both hitting free agency, and Josh Donaldson and Brandon Moss entering arbitration. Donaldson has been highly productive in his time with the A's, whilst a Moss/Freiman platoon at first base is one that should succeed. Up the middle, the trade to send away Russell leaves them devoid of internal options at least until 2016, but there are a few options they could look to in free agency. Kelly Johnson strikes me as a classic Billy Beane target as a versatile player with good on-base skills coming off a disappointing season so he should be reasonably affordable. At shortstop, a reunion with Stephen Drew wouldn't be out of the question, whilst JJ Hardy would represent a defensive upgrade with pop. In the outfield, Coco Crisp will man center-field provided he can stay healthy but the A's could do with a platoon partner for the disappointing Josh Reddick. Chris Denorfia would be a cheap option, although Nelson Cruz might be a target given the availability of the DH. The trade of Cespedes and impending free agency of Gomes leaves a hole in left field. Speedster Billy Burns is one of the most exciting prospects in the system, but whether he has the bat to stay in the line-up remains to be seen, so the A's might look for a free agent option, such as Sam Fuld or Melky Cabrera. The A's are going to be busy, and with Beane at the helm it's safe to expect the unexpected.

Pitching: The rotation will be anchored once again by young right-hander Sonny Gray who isn't arbitration eligible until 2017, whilst Jeff Samardzija has one more year of arbitration left that he will presumably see out in Oakland. Scott Kazmir has struggled in the second half, but is under contract for $11m in 2015 and has proven an astute signing after his unlikely comeback. Jesse Chavez will be on the roster once again for the A's in 2015, and after impressing as a back-end starter earlier this year he may get another chance to stick and save the A's some money. If the A's want to make a splash in free agency, then one of Shields, Scherzer or Lester will be a top target, but it seems unlikely the A's will want to guarantee more than around $40m, ruling out the latter two. More astute targets like former A's Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson seem likelier, although Francisco Liriano could be a good fit in their rotation provided he can be acquired at a reasonable price. In the bullpen, Sean Doolittle will continue as closer, ably supported by Ryan Cook and Eric O'Flaherty although the A's will need to replace Gregerson either internally or on the market.

Trade Possibilities

If there is one thing we can take away from this season, it is that Billy Beane is not scared to wheel-and-deal when he sees an opportunity present itself. With a decimated minor league system, he may struggle to put together the kind of package that could acquire him quality major leaguers, but Beane is unlikely to let a hurdle as trivial as that stop him from exploring his options. The Dodgers outfield surplus might be an area that he looks towards, as he would not have to give up much in the way of prospects for the likes of Ethier or Kemp provided the team can take on a decent amount of salary. One prospect that could build some value provided he stays healthy is Dillon Overton. Having signed way below slot in 2013 after the revelation that he would need Tommy John surgery, he has bounced back emphatically since his rehab this season, striking out 53 in 37 innings, albeit in the low minors.

Overview

The A's are built to win now, and with 2014 the priority, it's only natural that 2015 might suffer. There are going to be a lot of holes to fill if Oakland doesn't resign any of it's free agent-eligible players, and with a restricted payroll it is going to take some more Billy Beane magic to make up the gap to the Angels. If there's one thing we've learnt about the A's however, it's that you can never rule them out.