So, Spring Training is nearly (finally) over, muscles have been flexed and it is time to get down to the nitty-gritty of a 162-game season, culminating in a new wildcard one game playoff and then the usual playoff scenario, at the end of which one team will be crowned champion.
The usual names have been put in the hat - the Phillies, Yankees, Red Sox and Rangers, but this year looks more open than ever. Can the reigning champion Cardinals put together another strong season without their star slugger Albert Pujols? And will his new team, the Los Angeles Angels turn a few heads in the AL West after their busy off-season? What about the Tigers, a team many pick to be World Series favourites after the resurgence of Verlander last year and the arrival of Prince Fielder to add some pop to an already potent line-up?
Well, here are my 5 bold predictions for the upcoming season, we'll see how close I get later on...:
1. Yovani Gallardo wins the Cy Young
I said they'd be bold didn't I? This is a guy who finally put it all together last season. He went 17-10 with a 3.52 ERA, making him a fair shout for the top arm in the Brewers rotation (which includes Zack Grienke). He threw 207 innings of work, so obviously has the durability, and also struck out 207 hitters at a clip of 1 every inning. That is an astounding stat considering his age (just turned 26) and the fact he hadn't broken out like that over his last few seasons. He also had a 1.21 groundout to flyout ratio, suggesting that when he doesn't strike out a batter, he keeps the ball on the ground. Every season he has improved - cutting his walks and increasing his strikeouts. Not only that, but he hit with a .221 average over 68 at bats - better than Adam Dunn. The kid is an athlete, and he's on the verge of greatness.
2. The Red Sox don't make the playoffs (again)
After their epic meltdown in September last year, you would hope the Red Sox would learn from their mistakes and not be complacent this season. Not only that, but they acquired Andrew Bailey to fill the closer role and should get a bounceback season from the likes of Crawford and Youkilis. However, they're playing in the AL East, one of the toughest divisions in the Majors, and I just see Tampa Bay having a fantastic year. Boston's pitching won't hold up, and their batting will crumble when they need it most, and another frustrating year will end in agony.
3. Giancarlo Stanton will win the home run crown
Mike, Giancarlo, whatever you want to call him, the kid can rake. He is just 22 years of age, and he's already hit 56 homers in his two seasons in the majors. Not only that, but he's moving to a field with a shorter left field wall. Not only that but he has more line-up protection than ever before. Still not convinced? On pitches inside the strike zone, Stanton has hit .336 with 45 home runs. It's not a matter of his hitting ability, it's whether he has the patience to wait for a good pitch. That will come with age. So will more power (bear in mind that of his 34 home runs last season, 15 were no doubters (most in Majors) and his average long ball went 416 feet). This kid is a frighteningly good prospect, and I think he crushes the ball this year.
4. Lucas Duda becomes an elite outfielder
Who? I hear you say. Duda. He joined the Mets big-league side at the end of last season and was quietly good, hitting for a .292 average with 10 homers and 50 RBI. That was only over the course of 301 at bats, and his spot in the outfield at Citi now looks secure. This spring, coaches have been singling out Duda consistently. They praised his swing, and now must praise him on a consistent basis as he continues to set a rapid pace in Spring Training (including an opposite field homer off Strasburg). He won't be absolutely lights out, but I think a .300, 25 home run, 90 RBI season isn't out of the question for him, and it would propel him into the top category for his position.
5. The Nationals go to the NLCS
The NL East is a tough division, and I don't see anyone but the Phillies winning it, but the new wildcard really benefits teams like the Nationals. I don't see the Braves doing so well this year, and I think the Nats are a good shout for 85 or 90 wins, which may well be enough to take them to the playoffs. They have a good rotation, behind the potent arm of Stephen Strasburg, and last years quiet performer Jordan Zimmermann. They should also be expecting bounce back seasons from Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth, so if Morse's form can continue, this could be a side that upsets the pack a bit in the playoffs - if they get there.
