A week or so since my last post, and it's time for me to update on what is going on in the League Championship Series'. In the AL side of the draw, it was a very one-sided affair, with the Detroit starting pitching blowing away tame Yankee slugging on their way to a 4-0 sweep and a World Series berth. On the National League side, the Cards moved into cruise control after a big victory against Tim Lincecum, but an astonishing game 5 performance from Barry Zito has once again given San Francisco new life.
The Yankees-Tigers series was expected to be a close one, but in the end it was embarrassingly one-sided. A strong game one performance from Doug Fister appeared to have sealed an early series lead for Detroit before Valverde blew the 9th inning lead, giving up 2 run home-runs to Ichiro and late-inning hero Raul Ibanez. However, Delmon Young's 12th inning go-ahead double put the Tigers ahead for good. Game two followed a similar plot-line, but with no 9th inning Detroit implosion. Anibal Sanchez cruised through 7 scoreless innings and Phil Coke did the rest despite a superb 11 strike-out performance from Hiroki Kuroda. The Yanks needed to win game 3, and got no easy break going up against likely Cy-Young winner Justin Verlander, who continued his remarkable post-season with 8.1 innings of one-run pitching as Phil Coke nailed down another save. In the final game, the Yankees hitting woes continued, as Max Scherzer gave 6 strong innings and the bullpen did the rest on their way to a brutal 4 game sweep.
The story of the series was the Yankees hitting - Cano struggled his way to one of the worst post-season slumps in Yankee history, Granderson struck out in more than half his at-bats, Nick Swisher continued his horrible drought with runners in scoring position and Alex Rodriguez's well documented struggles led to his benching for the final two games of the series. Only Ichiro and Ibanez showed that they could put together any sort of good hitting at the plate, but I think the emphasis is being placed way too much on the Yankees' struggles than on the excellence of the Tigers pitching. The dominance of Verlander is no surprise, but the superb work from Fister, Sanchez and Scherzer were the defining performances from the series, as the Yankees could never adapt. As hot as they are now, it's hard to bet against them going into the World Series.
On the other side of the draw, the Giants and Cardinals started off a big NLCS series, with both teams proving in the divisional series that they are comeback kings. In game 1 the Cardinal bats got to Bumgarner early, and the bullpen held onto the lead to give them a big early advantage. A superb pitching performance from Ryan Vogelsong in game 2 proved the difference as the Giants tied up the series in a game that was marred by a hard slide from Matt Holliday at 2nd base that roughed up Marco Scutaro and gave the series an extra edge. Game 3 was huge in terms of impact on the series, and it was the Cards that came out on top after a superb performance from Matt Lohse and a clutch 2 run homer from bench player Matt Carpenter. Trying to tie up the series was Tim Lincecum for the Giants, who had seemingly put a disastrous regular season behind him after a number of superb bullpen pitching performances. However, he got beat up by the Cardinals as Adam Wainwright cruised to a game 4 victory and a commanding 3-1 series lead. The series seemed to be over with much-maligned left-hander Barry Zito on the mound the next day...
Having pounded left-handed pitching during the regular season and in the post-season, Zito was generally seen as a pitcher who would be lucky to make it through 4 innings. However, the soft-throwing 33 year old came up with the performance of his career, baffling and fooling the Cardinals with 7.2 scoreless innings in which he showed that location will always trump power. His astonishing performance allowed the Giants bats to heat up, and with the series now at 3-2 heading back to San Francisco, the pressure is on the Cardinals to perform in game 6 or be faced with a supremely confident and crowd-backed Giants side in game 7. This looks certain to be yet another superb series, and with their recent history for post-season heroics, you wouldn't want to put your money against St Louis, no matter how deep a hole they find themselves in...
Saturday 20 October 2012
Friday 12 October 2012
5 Things We've Learnt from the Divisional Series
Yup, another list. A simply unbelievable October of baseball so far, and every game that could have been played in the Divisional Series' will be played. We will get 20 games of baseball, and what an 18 games they have been so far. The Giants launched probably the greatest NLDS comeback since it was incepted, as the Reds were beat on 3 consecutive days at home for the first time all year. They were led, as always, by the unbelievable Buster Posey, who's grand slam and throwing out of Bruce at 3rd base were two of the biggest plays of the game. Meanwhile, the A's pitted momentum, cinderella-story and the will of a nation against Verlander. And Verlander dominated them. The O's won another extra-inning game to pull their series back to 2-2, and Jayson Werth capped off a 13 pitch, 9th inning at-bat with a walk-off homer.
So, without further ado - here's what we've learnt:
1. Baseball is amazing
Seriously. No other sport provides the same day-to-day drama, the knowledge that at any time a record could be broken, a play could do something so unbelievable it knocks the breath out of you. J.J. Hardy busting out of a slump to silence the Bronx. Jayson Werth cranking a mammoth walk off home-run. Buster Posey turning a 94 mph fastball around and into the upper deck in left field for a grand slam. Justin Verlander taking apart one of the most potent AL line-ups like he was playing a video game. What a sport.
2. Justin Verlander is the best pitcher we will ever see
'Justin Verlander can't pitch in the post-season'. 'He can't handle high-pressure games'. 'He only ever does well against weak line-ups'. Well guess what, in the biggest game of the season for the Tigers, Verlander threw a complete-game, 4 hit, 11 strike-out shutout of the Athletics in front of one of the best crowds in the Major Leagues, never mind millions of baying fans worldwide on tv. His fastball wasn't touching 100. But combined with a knee-buckling curve, off the table change-up and astonishing location, he simply dismantled the Athletics line-up. There is no-one better in the game right now, and I challenge whether we will see anyone with his kind of repertoire and ability in the next 50 years.
3. Home field advantage means nothing
If the Cardinals or Orioles clinch their respective spots in the championship series' tonight, it would match the post-season record of 5 road 'clinchers'. If they both win it would break it, before the CS and WS. Maybe the one-off 2-3 format is the reason - the team with the best record plays 2 games on the road before playing 3 on the trot back at home, but maybe teams have just found a way to negate home field advantage. Crowds are louder than ever before, but teams just aren't scared or intimidated by them.
4. Buster Posey is the National League MVP
There are two reasons for this. One is pure brilliance and another is pure wrong. There appear to be 4 possible candidates for the NL MVP. The two that bear comparison are Buster Posey and Yadier Molina. Molina has long been one of the most underrated catchers in the Major League. In fact, I think he is criminally underrated - the most underrated hitter in the entire majors. However, I think this inability to recognise his offensive prowess is offset by the fact that his defense is overrated. Hear me out now. He is the best defensive catcher in the league - I'm not denying that. But the extent to which he is the best defensive catcher is debatable. His regular season fielding percentage of .997 was second only to Brian McCann who caught 170 less innings. He allowed just 38 steals and threw out an incredible 35 runners. Posey was worse - but not a lot. He allowed way more steals (87) although he threw out 38 runners and his fielding percentage was 6 ticks worse despite allowing just 2 passed balls. Not all of these stats are of course attributable to the catcher, things like steals can be put on pitchers too. With the bat, Posey's output has been greater - again, not as much as people like to think. He has a greater average, runs, RBI and home run number, but not so much that it becomes a non-contest. Both players are extremely comparable, but Posey wins in my opinion because offensive out-put is generally more valuable and easier to put down to one player and because he was for most of the season the only hitter in the Giants line-up.
The depressing part of this, is that really Ryan Braun had the best season in the National League. His .319 average was just .17 worse than Posey and 8 ticks worse than McCutchen. He stole 30 bases, being caught just 7 times - McCutchen (who is generally considered a speedier player) stole just 20 and was thrown out 12 times. Molina stole a surprising amount for a catcher but obviously not on the level Braun did. In terms of counting stats, Braun's incredible 41 homers led the National League despite a lack of line-up protection. His 112 RBI fell a close 2nd to Chase Headley but his .595 slugging percentage fell second just to Giancarlo Stanton. His fielding isn't terrific, but it isn't lousy either. On the basis of production, and worth to his side, Braun should have serious consideration for MVP but he won't, because the writers who vote for the award will still be sore about his drug scandal from last season - despite the fact that it has had no influence over this, arguably more terrific, season.
5. Ace > Depth
Much was made of the decision by the Washington Nationals to cut their phenomenon Stephen Strasburg's season short despite the fact he was one of the main reasons they were going to the play-offs for the first time in the young team's history. One of the key points made in defence of Mike Rizzo was that Washington has excellent pitching depth. This is undeniable - Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, Edwin Jackson and Ross Detwiler are all capable starters. But the divisional series' have shown that an ace is much greater than depth. The obvious example is Justin Verlander - he essentially carried his team into the ALCS with his two starts. On the flip side, Oakland had no obvious ace - Jarrod Parker is a good and highly talented young pitcher, but not someone you would want to entrust in a must-win game. The Giants rode 6 strong innings from potential Cy Young candidate Matt Cain to victory, as the Reds were forced to rue what could have been with their ace (Johnny Cueto) sidelined. Tonight's pitching match-up between Sabathia and Hammel seems to be a no-brainer. When it comes to winner-takes-all 5 or 7 game series, an ace is absolutely crucial. If you can get two wins from your key starter, then it makes the job incredibly simple for the other games - just win 2 of the other 5. That's why, despite all their struggles during the regular season, you could never count the Tigers out.
So, without further ado - here's what we've learnt:
1. Baseball is amazing
Seriously. No other sport provides the same day-to-day drama, the knowledge that at any time a record could be broken, a play could do something so unbelievable it knocks the breath out of you. J.J. Hardy busting out of a slump to silence the Bronx. Jayson Werth cranking a mammoth walk off home-run. Buster Posey turning a 94 mph fastball around and into the upper deck in left field for a grand slam. Justin Verlander taking apart one of the most potent AL line-ups like he was playing a video game. What a sport.
2. Justin Verlander is the best pitcher we will ever see
'Justin Verlander can't pitch in the post-season'. 'He can't handle high-pressure games'. 'He only ever does well against weak line-ups'. Well guess what, in the biggest game of the season for the Tigers, Verlander threw a complete-game, 4 hit, 11 strike-out shutout of the Athletics in front of one of the best crowds in the Major Leagues, never mind millions of baying fans worldwide on tv. His fastball wasn't touching 100. But combined with a knee-buckling curve, off the table change-up and astonishing location, he simply dismantled the Athletics line-up. There is no-one better in the game right now, and I challenge whether we will see anyone with his kind of repertoire and ability in the next 50 years.
3. Home field advantage means nothing
If the Cardinals or Orioles clinch their respective spots in the championship series' tonight, it would match the post-season record of 5 road 'clinchers'. If they both win it would break it, before the CS and WS. Maybe the one-off 2-3 format is the reason - the team with the best record plays 2 games on the road before playing 3 on the trot back at home, but maybe teams have just found a way to negate home field advantage. Crowds are louder than ever before, but teams just aren't scared or intimidated by them.
4. Buster Posey is the National League MVP
There are two reasons for this. One is pure brilliance and another is pure wrong. There appear to be 4 possible candidates for the NL MVP. The two that bear comparison are Buster Posey and Yadier Molina. Molina has long been one of the most underrated catchers in the Major League. In fact, I think he is criminally underrated - the most underrated hitter in the entire majors. However, I think this inability to recognise his offensive prowess is offset by the fact that his defense is overrated. Hear me out now. He is the best defensive catcher in the league - I'm not denying that. But the extent to which he is the best defensive catcher is debatable. His regular season fielding percentage of .997 was second only to Brian McCann who caught 170 less innings. He allowed just 38 steals and threw out an incredible 35 runners. Posey was worse - but not a lot. He allowed way more steals (87) although he threw out 38 runners and his fielding percentage was 6 ticks worse despite allowing just 2 passed balls. Not all of these stats are of course attributable to the catcher, things like steals can be put on pitchers too. With the bat, Posey's output has been greater - again, not as much as people like to think. He has a greater average, runs, RBI and home run number, but not so much that it becomes a non-contest. Both players are extremely comparable, but Posey wins in my opinion because offensive out-put is generally more valuable and easier to put down to one player and because he was for most of the season the only hitter in the Giants line-up.
The depressing part of this, is that really Ryan Braun had the best season in the National League. His .319 average was just .17 worse than Posey and 8 ticks worse than McCutchen. He stole 30 bases, being caught just 7 times - McCutchen (who is generally considered a speedier player) stole just 20 and was thrown out 12 times. Molina stole a surprising amount for a catcher but obviously not on the level Braun did. In terms of counting stats, Braun's incredible 41 homers led the National League despite a lack of line-up protection. His 112 RBI fell a close 2nd to Chase Headley but his .595 slugging percentage fell second just to Giancarlo Stanton. His fielding isn't terrific, but it isn't lousy either. On the basis of production, and worth to his side, Braun should have serious consideration for MVP but he won't, because the writers who vote for the award will still be sore about his drug scandal from last season - despite the fact that it has had no influence over this, arguably more terrific, season.
5. Ace > Depth
Much was made of the decision by the Washington Nationals to cut their phenomenon Stephen Strasburg's season short despite the fact he was one of the main reasons they were going to the play-offs for the first time in the young team's history. One of the key points made in defence of Mike Rizzo was that Washington has excellent pitching depth. This is undeniable - Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, Edwin Jackson and Ross Detwiler are all capable starters. But the divisional series' have shown that an ace is much greater than depth. The obvious example is Justin Verlander - he essentially carried his team into the ALCS with his two starts. On the flip side, Oakland had no obvious ace - Jarrod Parker is a good and highly talented young pitcher, but not someone you would want to entrust in a must-win game. The Giants rode 6 strong innings from potential Cy Young candidate Matt Cain to victory, as the Reds were forced to rue what could have been with their ace (Johnny Cueto) sidelined. Tonight's pitching match-up between Sabathia and Hammel seems to be a no-brainer. When it comes to winner-takes-all 5 or 7 game series, an ace is absolutely crucial. If you can get two wins from your key starter, then it makes the job incredibly simple for the other games - just win 2 of the other 5. That's why, despite all their struggles during the regular season, you could never count the Tigers out.
Saturday 6 October 2012
NLDS October 6
Well, that was a wild first year for the new wildcard system. The Braves finally lost a game with Medlen on the mound, but it was not without its controversy. A call went their way early on, when David Ross was granted a very late time-out on a pitch he went on to strike out on. The pitch was thrown again and Ross plunked it into the left field seats. But the biggest call came in the 8th inning, when with men on 1st and 2nd, rookie Andrelton Simmons hit a shallow pop-up into left field. With the short-stop Kozma back-pedalling and left-fielder Holliday hurrying in, there was some confusion which ended with them leaving it for each other and allowing the Braves to load the bases. However, a second before the ball had hit the turf, left-field umpire Sam Holbrook had called on the infield fly rule, meaning that the batter was called out. The call was not a good one, the catch was clearly anything but regulation. However, the response by the Braves fans, who threw bottles and other debris onto the pitch, was undignified. The Cardinals went on to close the game out, although it was being played under protest.
The other game was less controversial, but no less surprising. Leftie Joe Saunders gave up just one run over 5.1 innings and the shut-down Orioles 'pen did the rest to leave me 0-2 from my picks so far. Soon to be free-agent Josh Hamilton received boos from the Texas faithful after striking out in his final at-bat, and the final 14 days of the season proved to be very forgetful indeed for the Rangers who perhaps got complacent atop the AL West.
But there's no rest in October, and we have the first games of the NLDS taking place today. In the first game we have a juicy match-up between the surprise AL West winners Oakland and the resurgent AL Central victors Tigers. The Tigers will send their ace, Justin Verlander, out to the mound to face off against one of the Oakland rookies - Jarrod Parker. The Oakland line-up has a tendency to strike out a lot, so Verlander may rack up some K's, but his post-season record in his career so far does not match up to his stellar regular season record. Parker has been the most reliable of Oakland's rookie rotation so far this season, but he will have his work cut out if he wants to shut down this red hot Detroit offense powered by triple-crown winner Miguel Cabrera. The heralded A's power will also be limited by the spacious outfield of Comerica Park, so they may have to revert to more small-ball and base stealing if they want to score runs on Verlander.
My prediction: 5-3 Detroit
On the National League side of the draw, two NL heavy-weights will do battle in the late game. The Giants quietly put together an excellent season, with Cain, Bumgarner and Vogelsong making up for Lincecum's misgivings and Buster Posey compiling an MVP calibre season with the second half omission of Melky Cabrera. It will be the 28 year old right-hander on the mound for the Giants, who put together the best campaign of his career with 16 wins, a 2.79 ERA and 193 punch-outs as well as a perfecto back in June. However, he will have to face off against another Cy-Young candidate in the Reds break-out ace Johnny Cueto. The 26 year old right-hander has been superb for the Cincinatti side this year, putting together 19 wins and a 2.78 ERA despite pitching half his games in the most hitter-friendly park in the National League. Both line-ups are good without being destructive, and in the cavernous AT&T park this could easily turn into a fascinating pitchers duel. I'll give the nod to the Reds though, because their hitting is slightly stronger and their bull-pen can match-up to that of the Giants. Should be fascinating game though.
My prediction: 2-1 Cincinatti
The other game was less controversial, but no less surprising. Leftie Joe Saunders gave up just one run over 5.1 innings and the shut-down Orioles 'pen did the rest to leave me 0-2 from my picks so far. Soon to be free-agent Josh Hamilton received boos from the Texas faithful after striking out in his final at-bat, and the final 14 days of the season proved to be very forgetful indeed for the Rangers who perhaps got complacent atop the AL West.
But there's no rest in October, and we have the first games of the NLDS taking place today. In the first game we have a juicy match-up between the surprise AL West winners Oakland and the resurgent AL Central victors Tigers. The Tigers will send their ace, Justin Verlander, out to the mound to face off against one of the Oakland rookies - Jarrod Parker. The Oakland line-up has a tendency to strike out a lot, so Verlander may rack up some K's, but his post-season record in his career so far does not match up to his stellar regular season record. Parker has been the most reliable of Oakland's rookie rotation so far this season, but he will have his work cut out if he wants to shut down this red hot Detroit offense powered by triple-crown winner Miguel Cabrera. The heralded A's power will also be limited by the spacious outfield of Comerica Park, so they may have to revert to more small-ball and base stealing if they want to score runs on Verlander.
My prediction: 5-3 Detroit
On the National League side of the draw, two NL heavy-weights will do battle in the late game. The Giants quietly put together an excellent season, with Cain, Bumgarner and Vogelsong making up for Lincecum's misgivings and Buster Posey compiling an MVP calibre season with the second half omission of Melky Cabrera. It will be the 28 year old right-hander on the mound for the Giants, who put together the best campaign of his career with 16 wins, a 2.79 ERA and 193 punch-outs as well as a perfecto back in June. However, he will have to face off against another Cy-Young candidate in the Reds break-out ace Johnny Cueto. The 26 year old right-hander has been superb for the Cincinatti side this year, putting together 19 wins and a 2.78 ERA despite pitching half his games in the most hitter-friendly park in the National League. Both line-ups are good without being destructive, and in the cavernous AT&T park this could easily turn into a fascinating pitchers duel. I'll give the nod to the Reds though, because their hitting is slightly stronger and their bull-pen can match-up to that of the Giants. Should be fascinating game though.
My prediction: 2-1 Cincinatti
Thursday 4 October 2012
Wildcard Previews
Though it feels like Mike Trout's season debut was last week, and that there's surely still time for the Orioles and A's to finally prove they're the Orioles and A's, the season is over. Another crazy season full of twists and turns, with the final day proving once again that if you don't play hard for 162 games, you may as well not bother. Not quite the drama and excitement of 2011's Game 162, but the Athletics astonishing comeback culminating in an AL West crown was a deserving prize for a simply astonishing season. The Yankees secured yet another AL East crown, and the enticing AL Wildcard play-off game was decided - Texas v Baltimore. Throughout this post-season I will attempt to post regularly with previews, write-ups and opinion, and if there's any kind of interest I may even try live-blogging a game...
So, onto the games. The first season with the new wildcard system looks like being a gripping one, with the one game 'winner-takes-all' mentality sure to be crushing for teams who will have their whole season potentially decided by a bad hop or missed call at first base. In the American league, the Rangers will find themselves playing in a game they would never have thought they would be competing in. Having dominated the AL West for 161 games of the year, they found themselves pipped to the post and forced to play an extra game to make their way into the play-off bracket once again. They will find themselves up against the red-hot Baltimore Orioles led by ex-Ranger Chris Davis who has been on a ridiculous homer-streak over the last week. Buck Showalter has taught his team to treat every game like a play-off, but there is no doubt that they will bring extreme intensity to Friday's match-up, and the Rangers would be foolish to take them lightly.
The Pitching Match-Up
The Rangers will have rookie sensation Yu Darvish taking to the hill for their critical game against a team he has not yet faced in his Major League career. After battling control issues for the first half of the season, Darvish has reigned in his walk rate and with it he has seen a marked improvement in his production. The effects of fatigue seemed to kick-in late in the season, and his ERA in fact is higher post all-star (4.26) than before (3.59). Although his sometimes erratic performances make him a risky starter, if anyone on the team could be called an ace it would have to be Darvish thanks to his astonishing strikeout rates. If the Orioles are patient then they have a chance to get Darvish out early, but if he has his control he could rack up the strikeouts and earn his team a massive W...
As for the Orioles, they will be turning to veteran left-hander Joe Saunders. He has plenty of experience against Texas, but none of it particularly inspiring - he has a 6.48 ERA in 11 starts there. The Orioles' starting pitching is perhaps weaker than that of Texas, but in this game they will simply be looking for 5 or 6 strong innings before handing the game over to the shut-down bullpen. Johnson has gone 4-0 with a 2.11 ERA and has the advantage of never facing the Rangers. They have arguably the most potent line-up in baseball, so it may well end up being a matter of which side can score more runs.
My guess - Rangers win 6-2
On the National League side of the diamond, it is two familiar foes. After having their season ruined by a resurgent September from the St Louis Cardinals last season, the Braves will be back for vengeance. They will have a strong wave of public support on their side due to the popularity of Chipper Jones who is playing his final games in the Major Leagues. Backed by able hitting from young sluggers Freddie Freeman and Jason Heyward as well as speedster Michael Bourn, the Braves have been able to compile one of the best records in the NL. With a shutdown closer they will be tough to score against late on in games. However, St Louis have once again been silently good. Overshadowed by the Reds in the Central and without Albert Pujols, they have used timely hitting from players like Matt Holliday, Allen Craig and Carlos Beltran to fuel themselves once again into the World Series race, and as we know they can turn wildcard into ring very easily...
The Pitching Match-Up
The Braves will be sending arguably the most dominant pitcher in the game right now out to the mound for this critical game, with break-out star Kris Medlen getting the nod. Although he was originally supposed to be in the Braves 'pen as a reliever, his comeback from Tommy John surgery had proven successful and he got into the rotation in July. Since then, his rise has been meteoric, as he put together 40.1 innings without an earned. He is also part of a Major League record - the Braves have won 23 straight games that Medlen has started. Although his stuff isn't overpowering, his location and control is simply outstanding, and his change-up currently has a 'whiff' rate of 44% which is among the highest in the league for starting pitchers.
Facing a tough task for the Cardinals will be right-hander Kyle Lohse who has simply sparkled at the front of the rotation for the defending champions. Without veteran Chris Carpenter and a returning from surgery Chris Carpenter, there appeared to be a hole at the front of their rotation which Lohse has filled seamlessly. He has put together a Cy-Young calibre season, recording a 16-3 record and 2.86 ERA, quietly proving to be one of the best pitchers in the league. The Braves hitters have been struggling at the plate recently, and if anyone is going to be able to keep them stifled it will be the break-out young ace. I expect this to be a very low-scoring game, and critical things like errors and steals may prove decisive. Perhaps the biggest factor working for the Braves however is the mere fact that Medlen is on the mound - they will be hoping his astonishing 'win' streak will continue through October.
My guess - Braves win 2-1
So, there you have it. They should be a great couple of games (shame about the unsociable UK start times) and I don't think it would be an overstatement to say that the winner of either game could easily be viewed as a World Series favourite...
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