2012 Season
The Brewers got off to a terrible start to the 2012 season, reaching the all-star break at 40-45. By the end of August, they hadn't improved much, with a 63-68 record, but then went on an absolute tear in September but improved to a 79-73 over the first 21 games as they propelled themselves into the wildcard race. Ultimately they fell short, but it was reason for optimism. Ryan Braun continued to put up MVP-calibre numbers, and off-season acquisitions Aramis Ramirez and Norichika Aoki did well. However, the rotation was unable to get any kind of consistency and the bullpen was a disaster, chalking up 33 losses and numerous blown saves. Ultimately, it was a season that disappointed but left Brewers fans confident for this season after an 83-79 record meant they finished 3rd in the Central.
Off-Season Moves
IN: Michael Gonzalez, Tom Gorzelanny, Burke Badenhop.
OUT: Manny Parra, Livan Hernandez, Jose Veras, Francisco Rodriguez, Kameron Loe, Shaun Marcum, Nyjer Morgan
Overview: The one issue for the Brewers in 2012 was the bullpen, and they accordingly went and fixed this over the winter. Hernandez, Veras, Loe and Parra are all out, with Gonzalez, Gorzelanny and Badenhop essentially creating a whole new relief corps. The pre-season injuries to Corey Hart and Mat Gamel have left the Brewers thin at first base, but they appear happy to fill the void from within for the time being. Shaun Marcum has been a reliable innings-eater and Nyjer Morgan has been a platoon or bench bat who's fallen out of favour recently. The Brewers were, for a short period of time, linked with Josh Hamilton, but did not make any kind of major splash. For the time being, this isn't necessarily a bad thing, but the Brewers may decide to fill the offensive void left by Prince Fielder's departure sooner rather than later. Overall grade: 5/10.
| Expected Opening Day Line-up | ||
|---|---|---|
| Position | Player | Projected stat line (OBP/SLG/WAR) |
| RF | Norichika Aoki | .364/.433/2.2 |
| 2B | Rickie Weeks | .345/.429/3.2 |
| LF | Ryan Braun | .382/.568/5.9 |
| 3B | Aramis Ramirez | .350/.498/3.6 |
| C | Jonathan Lucroy | .346/.442/2.9 |
| CF | Carlos Gomez | .302/.407/2.2 |
| 1B | Hunter Morris | .291/.449/0.7 |
| SS | Jean Segura | .340/.388/2.4 |
| Expected rotation | ||
|---|---|---|
| Starter | Player | Projected stat line (IP/ERA/WAR) |
| 1 | Yovani Gallardo | 208/3.59/3.7 |
| 2 | Marco Estrada | 181/3.63/2.1 |
| 3 | Wily Peralta | 56/4.66/1.4 |
| 4 | Mike Fiers | 172/3.40/1.8 |
| 5 | Mark Rogers | 70/4.63/0.3 |
Position Players
This group of position players is led by Ryan Braun, the 2011 NL MVP who could and perhaps should have won the award last season if it weren't for the PED scandal from the season before. His triple-slash of .319/.391/.595 was almost a direct replica of the 2011 numbers and he actually hit eight more home-runs. He is arguably the best all-round player in baseball at the moment, and will once more be tasked with shouldering the offensive load in Milwaukee. Behind him is veteran third baseman Aramis Ramirez who was quietly superb in his first year as a Brewer, with a .300/.360/.540 triple-slash and a stonking 50 doubles. Their are health concerns as he enters his age 35 season, but he has been durable so far in the Major Leagues and will benefit from hitting behind Braun. Atop the line-up is the Japanese 31 year old speedster Norichika Aoki, who hit .288 with 30 steals in a superb first season, and he'll look to continue in his spark-plug role from the second half of the season.
Rickie Weeks endured some of the worst baseball of his life in the first half of the 2012 season, hitting .191 and slugging .343 prior to the all-star break with 100 strikeouts. However, he was able to get back on track in the second half, with a .261 average and a healthy reduction in K's. He'll need to prove that the first half was a fluke or could find himself slipping down and eventually out of the batting line-up. Jonathan Lucroy was having a superb year until he broke his hand in a freak accident, hitting .320 and slugging .513 to go with his excellent defense. Around him will be fill-in first baseman Hunter Morris and sophomore shortstop Jean Segura who began to take off in the month of September (.418 OBP) and has significant promise at the tender age of 22. Carlos Gomez also broke out somewhat in 2012, as he smacked 19 home runs and stole 37 bases despite a measly .305 OBP. If he can put up somewhat similar numbers in 2013, he could go some way to filling the team's offensive void. Overall, this is a unit with the potential to score a lot of runs at Miller Park, and if Ryan Braun can continue to put up MVP calibre numbers, he won't even need much help. Overall grade: 8/10.
Pitching
The ace of the rotation is undoubtedly Yovani Gallardo, who has continued to dance on the periphery of elite pitchers. His strikeout rate is superb, having struck out hitters at a rate of 1 per inning in every year in the Majors. The spike in walks from 59 to 81 is cause for concern however, especially as he actually became more stingy in the hits department. One season he may well put it all together, and with the exit of Zack Greinke the Brewers may well be hoping that season is sooner rather than later. Behind him, is a bizarre mix of pitchers. Marco Estrada continues to be an enigma on the mound. He doesn't have powerful stuff, with a fringy fastball and a few average-to-plus pitches, but plus command. Typically, pitchers like him tend to struggle in small parks due to the low strikeout rates, but Estrada has incredible strikeout rates, matching those of his rotation partner Yovani Gallardo. The WHIP should stay low, and with a bit of luck he will keep the ERA down too and be a valuable number 2 for the Brewers.
Wily Peralta is, perhaps, his polar opposite. Blessed with outstanding raw stuff, including a fastball in the mid-90s and a slider and changeup to complement it, he was unable to force his way into the Brewers rotation in 2012 and struggled with command problems at AAA. Presuming he can command the strike zone a little better, he could have the raw stuff to strike out hitters at will. Mike Fiers made his way into the 2012 rotation at the end of May, and immediately dazzled, allowing 16 earned runs in his first 13 starts. His bizarre release point, almost directly above his head allows him to attack hitters from a different angle, and his huge 12-6 curve proved to be tough to hit. He struggled a little more from mid-August onwards, but I'm willing to put that down to fatigue rather than poor stuff, so he could be a sleeper in this rotation.
In the bullpen, John Axford will get another chance at the closer role. In 2011 he was outstanding, saving 46 games with an ERA below 2. In 2012 he struggled mightily, largely thanks to an astonishing 19.2 HR/FB percentage. Despite striking out hitters at a break-neck pace, he still blew nine saves and possessed an ugly 4.67 ERA by the end of the season, although saved 13 of his last 14 games. He should be able to bounce back, and will be supported by Tom Gorzelanny who impressed for the Nationals last season with a 2.88 ERA. Michael Gonzalez, Jim Henderson and Burke Badenhop will all provide assistance out of the 'pen, and assuming they can avoid total meltdown again, this should be an area of great improvement in 2013. Overall, this is a pitching staff that has the potential to be great, but not a whole lot of depth after the Greinke trade. The bullpen still has a number of question marks, but should bounce back after its disastrous 2012 showings. Overall grade: 6/10.
Prospects
The aforementioned Wily Peralta is the only stand-out prospect in the Brewers system and should be given the chance to lock down a rotation spot this season. First baseman Hunter Morris will be filling in for the injured Corey Hart, and had a fine season in AA last year (.357 OBP and .563 SLG), although his ability to stick on the big league team is doubtful. Mark Rogers may well start the year in the rotation, although there are concerns about his healthy, and at age 26 with four surgeries under his belt it is easy to see why. Other than that, it will be limited to possible bullpen jobs for the likes of Tyler Thornburg, and the future of the Brewers organisation is reportedly not particularly bright, although for this year that may not be so apparent. Overall rating: 7/10.
Overview
This team was on the whole underwhelming in 2012, and I think a rebound can be expected this season. The hitting was actually a strength last year, and though injury to Hart weakens the line-up a bit, a full year of production from Lucroy will be a bonus, and Rickie Weeks should bounce back. The rotation is going to be very swing and miss, literally, with strikeouts racking up but a fair amount of rough outings. If the bullpen can improve I like this team to do better, but with the NL Central as competitive as it is at the moment, they'll probably be playing for a wildcard spot.
Prediction: 86-76
Gif to Watch
I could show you a GIF of Mike Fiers' crazy arm slot, or maybe a fine double play turned by Weeks and Segura, but this play is crazy enough to have me open-mouthed. Jean Segura is the man hustling round the bases, and yes, that's the Chicago Cubs booting it around the infield.
For those of you wondering, the Brewers didn't blow the save in this game...
No comments:
Post a Comment