Wednesday 28 August 2013

Should Fernandez, Bundy and Harvey change the way we treat pitching prospects?

It has been a bittersweet season for fans of great young pitching (and let's be honest, who isn't?). Some of the game's top starters are barely out of nappies, as Matt Harvey and Jose Fernandez have been dominant in the NL East, Shelby Miller has been superb for the Cardinals, and even Clayton Kershaw is just 25 (how scary is that?). At the same time of course, we have seen how fragile pitchers are. Top prospect Dylan Bundy hurt his elbow before throwing a single regular season pitch and had to be shut down to have Tommy John surgery earlier this year. And in a cruel blow to the Mets, Matt Harvey tore his UCL last week and may have to follow Bundy down the path to surgery. These injuries serve as a constant reminder of how pitching is a violent activity, and regardless of impeccable mechanics, superb conditioning and strict pitch count control, pitchers can get hurt on any pitch.

So should this change the way we treat pitching prospects? Young players, particularly those drafted out of high school, tend to spend three or four seasons in the minor leagues. On many levels, this makes sense, as hitters and pitchers can adapt, improve and learn whilst facing similar competition. Young players just aren't skilled enough to play at the highest level. For the most part, this is true. However, Jose Fernandez has proven this season that playing at every level in the minor leagues isn't necessary to be an impactful major league player. Fernandez hasn't just held his own, he's been the best rookie in the Major Leagues this season, despite throwing a handful of innings above single-A. Actually, Fernandez hasn't just been one of the best rookies this season. He's been one of the best pitchers outright, with incredible ERA, WHIP and strikeout numbers, made more impressive by the fact he is just 21 years old.

Of course, Fernandez is the exception, rather than the rule, but the point stands. Should top pitching prospects be hurried to the Major Leagues so that they don't waste their innings in the minors? With the exception of a few pitchers (Verlander, Buehrle, Ryan etc.), all pitchers break down at some point, suggesting that there are a finite number of innings an arm can throw. Rather than throw 200 or 300 innings across three seasons in the minor leagues, prospects could throw 150 of those in the Major Leagues. Perhaps their command won't be fully refined and the breaking pitches will lag behind the fastball, but innings in the minors generates nothing for a team, whereas in the Major Leagues they will be productive, even if they're not as dominant as they could be.

After Bundy went down with injury earlier this season, much was made of the fact he threw an extortionate number of pitches in high school. Whilst there is nothing Major League teams can do to combat this, they can promote their pitchers to the big league club earlier, perhaps in a bullpen role to start with (as the Cardinals frequently do). Whilst these pitchers still have plenty of learning to do, they would be providing value with their innings, rather than using them in the minors where they don't help the team. The issue might not be as poignant for the top prospects, because guys like Strasburg, Gerrit Cole and Fernandez likely only throw a couple of hundred innings in the minors anyway as they are fast-tracked to the big league club. But prospects like Tampa Bay right-hander Chris Archer work away in the minors for years (Archer racked up 770 innings in the Minor Leagues before this season), and every pitch they throw could potentially lead to an injury that ends their career or drastically reduces their effectiveness.

Prospects, and particularly pitching prospects, tend to be wrapped in bubble-wrap and carefully tended well into their careers, as innings limits, pitch counts and better conditioning has become much more prominent in recent seasons thanks to high-profile blow-outs that occurred to talented youngsters like Mark Prior and Kerry Wood. And whilst these have undoubtedly contributed to a general reduction in arm injuries, the point still stands that pitching is dangerous and violent. Perhaps teams could learn a lesson from Miami (that sounds odd), and begin to promote their pitching prospects earlier, to ensure that they can gain as much value as possible from the finite number of innings an arm can throw.

In the mean time, let's hope for a full and speedy recovery for both Bundy and Harvey, because they make baseball much more exciting when they play. And let's continue to appreciate how incredible pitchers like Buehrle are (2,851 innings and counting), never mind once-in-a-generation work-horses like Nolan Ryan (5,386 innings in his illustrious career), because the truth is, every pitch can lead to a disastrous injury.

Thursday 22 August 2013

PEDs and A-Rod

Despite all the fantastic action taking place on the field, it has been hard to keep your eyes on the field in recent weeks if you've been keeping up with Major League Baseball. MLB's war on performance enhancing drugs (PED's) began with the biogenesis scandal, became serious when Tony Bosch was recruited, took a bizarre turn when Ryan Braun accepted a 65 game ban and almost concluded when twelve players were handed 50-game suspensions. Almost. But of course, the biggest name in this entire saga was Alex Rodriguez. The prodigiously talented third baseman who appealed against his huge 211 game suspension. In an almost surreal twist, Rodriguez returned from his hip injury at around the same time, and made his season debut on the same day he received this suspension. So where on earth do we begin?

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The use of performance enhancing drugs in baseball is nothing new. In 1889 pitcher Pud Galvin used a testosterone supplement, and the use of similar drugs has been wide and well documented ever since. Steroids only made it to baseball's banned substance list in 1991 and testing for PEDs wasn't available until 2003. Between 1995 and 2003, steroid use reached its peak (or at least so we believe) and subsequently offensive numbers sky-rocketed. Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa famously chased down Roger Maris' home run record in 1998 and Barry Bonds broke baseball altogether between 2001 and 2004. At the time, no-one batted an eyelid. Why would they? Baseball was the most exciting it had ever been. Stadiums were packed, revenues were soaring and interest was at an all-time high. Jose Canseco's 2005 book 'Juiced' suddenly discredited all these years of incredible offensive numbers, as Canseco detailed his use of steroids and suggested that the majority of other players were also users, including McGwire, Ivan Rodriguez and Jason Giambi. The book was highly controversial, and the issue of PEDs suddenly became baseball's biggest concern. Without calling Canseco a liar, his book also detailed Madonna's infatuation with him and claimed that he ran a 3.9 second 40-yard dash, which would be the fastest time ever recorded. Although steroids have only become major news over the past decade, their use has been frequent and widespread for well over half a century.

This season, performance enhancing drugs exploded onto national news when a list of players linked to the biogenesis clinic in Florida was revealed by the Miami New Times. The list seemed to implicate the listed players as having purchased performance enhancing substances from the now defunct clinic. Major League Baseball sued the clinic, and forced it's former owner, Tony Bosch, to co-operate with its investigations. Several months later, these investigations led to the suspensions for Braun, Rodriguez and twelve other players. MLB is yet to reveal the evidence it obtained in order to hand down these suspensions, although hopefully this evidence will come out as part of Alex Rodriguez's appeal process. Either way, the decision of MLB to trust Tony Bosch was an odd one, which highlighted Bud Selig's insatiable desire to combat the PED issue.

So where does that leave Rodriguez? He had previously admitted to PED use in 2003 when he was with the Rangers, but the more recent allegations leave his career in tatters. It's easy to forget that this is one of the most talented players ever to grace a baseball field. In 1996, as a 21 year old, Rodriguez hit .358 with a .414 OBP, 36 homers and 9.2 WAR and should have won the MVP award. There are some, almost scary parallels to a certain Mike Trout. The next season he regressed a little as his BABIP fell, but he was still worth 4.3 wins. He pushed his game up to another level in 1998, hitting 42 homers and stealing 46 bases along with a .310 average (becoming just the third player in history to join the 40/40 club). In 2000, he made the next leap, improving his walk rate from 9.8% to 14.9%, as he basically became the best player in baseball. Over the next decade, Rodriguez would continue to be one of the best players in the game, and as of writing he has compiled 111 wins above replacement in his career, with a .300 batting average and 649 career home runs. This isn't just a strong hall of fame case, this is a first ballot, slam dunk, sure-fire baseball great. But, of course, it's not. It's Alex Rodriguez.

So, what heinous crimes has he committed? Alex Rodriguez's use of performance enhancing drugs is beyond doubt - he admitted to steroid use in 2003, but Major League Baseball decided to go much further than the 50 game ban usually handed out to first time offenders and slapped him with a huge 211 game suspension, that would have seen him out of action through the 2014 season. This juiced up suspension was handed down on the grounds that Rodriguez attempted to 'cover-up his violations of the program by engaging in a course of conduct intended to obstruct and frustrate the Office of the Commissioner's investigation'. Whilst this would indeed warrant a larger penalty, it seems odd to hand down this suspension to Rodriguez and not Braun, who had a previous failed test and had furiously maintained his innocence after avoiding suspension with a loophole.

Under the collective bargaining agreement (CBA), agreed to by all players, Rodriguez is able to appeal this suspension, and play games whilst his appeal is heard. Exactly the same thing happened last season, when Melky Cabrera continued to play for the Giants whilst he appealed his suspension for PED use. Unlike Rodriguez's appeal, his case took place behind closed doors. This time, however, there is outrage. A number of players have criticised the fact that Rodriguez is able to play, apparently unaware that they agreed to this process themselves. Rodriguez is doing nothing more than following the procedure afforded to him by Major League Baseball. As a consequence, he has had the ball thrown at him by Ryan Dempster, and possibly may face further retribution in the coming weeks.

But this problem goes a lot further than Alex Rodriguez. Performance enhancing drugs have been in the news for a while now, and the argument reached a head last season when a number of hall of fame voters claimed they would never vote for Bonds, Sosa, Clemens etc. due to the steroid allegations levied against them. Whilst the use of PED's should be frowned upon, this feels like an attempt by baseball writers to rewrite the history of the game. Regardless of how he did it, Bonds broke the home run record and put together some of the greatest offensive seasons we have ever seen. To ignore his contributions to the game seems naive and stubborn. Even worse, players like Mike Piazza, who have never been linked absolutely to performance enhancing substances were failing to make the cut, as some writers decided not to vote for 'suspected users'. This argument came up again this season, when an ESPN poll revealed that a number of fans and pundits viewed Roger Maris original record of 61 home runs in a season as the real record. This black-inking of Sosa, McGwire and Bonds is ludicrous.

To start with, we have no idea what kind of effects PED's have on production. As David Schoenfield explained in this interesting article, there is little to no doubt that steroids have some impact on production. If they didn't help, players wouldn't take them. But it's impossible to work out how much of an impact they have. And the impact is almost certainly going to be less than most fans would like to believe. Steroids increase strength, which in turn can increase bat speed. In theory, this leads to more power - but how much more? Steroids certainly won't have any effect on plate discipline, on contact rates, on fly ball rates etc. Of course, it's a shame that talented players like Bonds, McGwire and Rodriguez felt the need to take PEDs and muddy the waters in the way they have. But to completely black out their incredible performance without any consideration into what effects the PEDs actually had seems premature and poorly informed. Not only that, but the greats of the past were probably juiced up on amphetamines, and all sorts of other performance enhancing drugs that weren't tested for. Heck, you can take adderall with no repercussions as a major league baseball player if you can get your hands on a prescription.

But the biggest shame of all? Well, that's not hard to find. In a season filled with spectacular baseball, as the Pirates look to make the play-offs for the first time since 1992, and look to put together a winning record for the first time in 20 seasons. Jose Fernandez, Yasiel Puig, Shelby Miller, Wil Myers et al are having remarkable rookie seasons, challenging not only for their respective rookie of the year awards, but possibly for MVP and Cy Young awards. Clayton Kershaw is putting together possibly the greatest pitching season since 1999 Pedro Martinez. These should be the headlines. These should be the discussions. But the continued focus on Alex Rodriguez and performance enhancing drugs doesn't allow that to happen. If this were the end of performance enhancing drugs, perhaps that would be ok. But it's not. Drugs have been used since 1890, and they'll continue to be used, no matter what suspensions Bud Selig hands down. That's the depressing truth. So, let's concentrate on baseball, please?

Friday 16 August 2013

Looking back at my predictions

Hindsight is a wonderful thing, and though making my bold predictions each season is a lot of fun, it can be pretty painful looking back at my woeful guesswork once the season reaches the close. Although divisions, awards and stat-lines aren't completely decided yet, we have a pretty good idea of how the season is going to play out. How did my bold predictions fare?

1. The Yankees lose 90 games

After getting off to a terrific start behind Vernon Wells' monster April, the Yankees have slipped out of the play-off race in recent weeks and currently sit just two games above .500. My pre-season prediction of an 80-82 record may prove a good call, but losing 90 games looks out of the question at the moment.

2. Giancarlo Stanton leads the majors in home runs

The one year I don't choose him will be the year he stays healthy and productive... Stanton struggled with an injury for a couple of months earlier this season, and hasn't been nearly as productive when on the field, with just 13 homers in 75 games. The lack of line-up protection, and lack of incentive to perform at the top of his game may play a role, but the persistent knee problems and tendency to blow hot and cold are bigger concerns for me.

3. Yu Darvish wins the Cy Young

Well, this wasn't a bad call. Darvish's 2.64 ERA is fourth in the American League, whilst he leads the Majors with a ridiculous 207 strikeouts in 153 innings. The 12-5 record is good, but he is probably playing second fiddle to Max Scherzer in the Cy Young race thanks to his ridiculous 17-1 record. If Darvish can be strong down the stretch and guide the Rangers into the post-season, he could be my best prediction so far.

4. The Nationals win 110 games

Wow. At 59-61, Washington has been one of the most disappointing teams in baseball, and look certain to miss out on the play-offs, never mind challenge this lofty wins total. My worst prediction, and by quite some way.

5. Adam Dunn has more strikeouts than any pitcher in baseball

Adam Dunn has actually cut down on his strikeouts this season, and whilst he may challenge the 200 mark once again, he won't even lead hitters in this category, never mind pitchers. Chris Carter and Mike Napoli are the front-runners, but don't look like challenging Darvish.

Not a lot to love there... how about my five breakout candidates?

1. Matt Moore, SP, Tampa Bay Rays

If you just look at win-loss record, you could be fooled into thinking Moore has taken great strides this season, as his 14-3 record is one of the best in the Majors. In reality, Moore has battled more inconsistency, as the strikeouts are barely better than league average and his control problems continue to put runners on base. The .212 average against is solid, but if Moore is going to become the next Kershaw, he needs to improve his fastball command and get access to his devastating change-up and curveball.

2. Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City Royals

For a couple of months this looked like a terrible call, as Hosmer scuffled at the plate, hitting one homer in April and May whilst slugging just .333. After George Brett's installation as hitting coach, Hosmer suddenly came alive, hitting .303/.347/.541 in June with six homers and .324/.351/.495 in July with four more dingers. He's suffered from another power outage so far in July, but the .295 average is solid and he has shown at least glimpses of the promise he showed in his rookie season.

3. Andrelton Simmons, SS, Atlanta Braves

As I wrote at the beginning of the season, Simmons is going to be the best defensive shortstop in the National League. In fact, he's going to be the best defensive player in the Major Leagues, possibly even the best in history. Much has been made of Simmons ridiculous range, instincts, glove and of course arm at shortstop, and whilst the bat has been disappointing (.284 OBP, .360 SLG), Simmons has still accrued 2.9 wins above replacement, thanks entirely to his ridiculous defense.

4. Carlos Santana, C, Cleveland Indians

Santana got off to a rip-roaring start, hitting .389/.476/.722 in April. However, he hit just .200 with little power in May and has continued to struggle for power since, with just nine homers since April. His elite plate discipline allows him to draw walks even when his bat isn't firing, which is extremely useful, but it appears he will never hit above .250, and the 27 homer 2011 season may have been an outlier.

5. Jean Segura, SS, Milwaukee Brewers

My best call of the five, Segura has been excellent for the Brewers this season, putting up a .309/.344/.456 triple-slash and 4.2 WAR. His plate discipline is questionable, but Segura makes plenty of contact and has stolen 35 bases this season, as well as flashing some pop with twelve homers. He's struggled a little more in the past few months, particularly in the power department, but appears to have the skills to be a five win player with some consistency, which is a major coup for the Brewers who acquired him in return for Zack Greinke last season.

And finally, who did I pick to win their respective divisions?

AL East - Toronto Blue Jays

If I'm going to strike out in the NL East, I may as well make it the AL East too...

AL Central - Detroit Tigers

No surprises that the Tigers are having another strong season, and they've pulled away from the pack more in recent weeks.

AL West - Texas Rangers

The Rangers hold a slim lead at the moment, but once again have the Athletics breathing right down their neck.

NL East - Washington Nationals

The only reason they're second in the division is because the Mets, Phillies and Marlins are even worse.

NL Central - Cincinnati Reds

The Reds are having a strong season, with a 69-52 record, but right now they are just third in the division, as the surprise Pirates and consistent Cardinals continue to impress. There will be three teams in the post-season from this division.

NL West - San Francisco Giants

The Giants have been woeful this season, as Madison Bumgarner has been there only reliable starter and the offense has been extremely weak. They currently sit last in the division with a 53-67 record.


So overall, not a brilliant set of predictions! They play 162 games for a reason, and the NL Central race in particular will be fascinating to watch, but I don't expect any of these poor guesses to come true.