Monday 28 April 2014

A Bright Future in Chicago

Cubs fans can be forgiven for being a bit pessimistic. Last time their team won the World Series, WAR was about to divide Europe, not the baseball world. Yes, it's been a century of pain for the 'loveable losers', but there's reason to believe that the Cubs fortunes are going to turn around - and turn around soon.

Much has already been made of the Cubs loaded minor league system. Keith Law ranked six of their prospects in the top 100 in baseball and had their system fourth overall in baseball. They have an impressive array of hitting prospects, two with genuine MVP ceilings, and in Anthony Rizzo and Starlin Castro they have a solid foundation for a strong line-up already at the Major League level. Pitching wise, there are still a lot of holes. C.J. Edwards represents the Cubs only strong starting pitching prospect, and other than trade candidate Jeff Samardzija and surprise breakout candidate Travis Wood, there's not a whole lot of talent at the Major League level.

But there's reason to think that the Cubs could have one of the best offenses in the National League, as soon as 2016. Starting at the Major League level, the Cubs have a couple of offensive talents that should be fixtures in the line-up for years to come. At first base, Anthony Rizzo hasn't quite lived up to the hype his excellent 2012 campaign promised, but he's shown decent power, an encouraging ability to take a walk, and so far in 2014 contact skills to go with it. He'll never be a 40 home run force, but if he can figure out how to hit lefties (career .617 OPS against southpaws) then he could be an OBP monster that plays great defense at first base and so far he looks best suited to be the leader of these prodigal young hitting talents.

Starlin Castro is a fascinating enigma at shortstop. Talent has never been a question for this highly skilled infielder, and having been in the Majors for over three full seasons, it's easy to forget that he is just 24 years old. However, after three great years between 2010 and 2012, Castro took a huge step back last season. He hit just .245 with an abysmal .631 OPS. Defense has never been Castro's calling card, meaning he actually put up negative WAR over 161 games last year. He was dogged by make-up and hustle questions as well, as manager Dale Sveum called him out for a lack of effort on several occasions. There's no question that Castro suffers inexplicable brain freezes on the field at times, leading to frustrating fielding errors and basepath blunders, but his bat is so talented that I saw him as a major trade candidate in the off-season, believing a change in scenery could do him a world of good. In the end, the Cubs kept him and got rid of manager Sveum, and in a small sample in 2014, it appears to have worked. He has hit .292 in the early going, and although his awful plate discipline prevents him from putting up high on-base figures, the four home runs suggest that Castro may be growing into some power. If he wants to avoid being traded or benched, it's vital that Castro have a big season and prove he's still part of the Cubs rebuilding project.

Of the other hitters at the Major League level, many are old or signed to short-term contracts, suggesting that their stay in Chicago may not be long-lived. Two more players worth keeping an eye on are Junior Lake and Mike Olt. Lake was something of a non-prospect coming up, but he quickly worked his way into the limelight last season when he had a monster couple of weeks immediately following his call-up. He regressed of course, but the end of season stat line (.284/.332/.428) was still impressive for a rookie campaign. Lake has good power to all fields, but is seemingly allergic to walks (a problem throughout the Cubs system) and has a lot of swing and miss to his game. If he can make adjustments, he could find himself patrolling left field for a few more years, but otherwise he may limit himself to a platoon role. Olt was much more of a prospect coming through the minors, but had a horrible beginning to 2013 in AAA, leading to a trade from the Rangers. Vision issues appeared to be at the forefront of his struggles, and after getting these fixed, he looked much more like the raker he had been earlier in his career. He strikes out a lot, and will never put up high averages, but if he can draw walks and hit home runs, he could potentially be a perfect platoon partner for Anthony Rizzo at first base.

So, now we delve into the minor leagues, and we start with one of the most exciting prospects in the game today. Javier Baez was the story of spring training, launching mammoth bombs seemingly every day, as he made a very strong case to start the season in the Majors. In the end, he was sent to AAA where he has actually struggled, both with injuries and at the plate. There's no question that he can hit however, with incredible bat speed that allows him to sustain high averages and hit for a lot more power than his frame would suggest possible. He has the tools to handle shortstop, and although he suffers from occasional brain-cramps and accusations that he's not showing enough effort (much like the aforementioned Castro) he looks set to be a fixture in the Cubs line-up in seasons to come. He likely won't get the call-up until June at the earliest, but there's reason to think that with a bit of experience and refinement, Baez could be an MVP candidate.

The Cubs turned some heads last Summer when they took college third baseman Kris Bryant at number two overall in the draft over dominant right-hander Jonathan Gray. In retrospect, that decision looks 100% vindicated, as Bryant has done nothing but tear the leather off the ball since becoming a professional. Bryant's bat speed isn't anywhere near as explosive as Baez's, but at 6 foot 5 and with huge hip rotation, power has never been an issue for Bryant. He slugged .688 once in the Cubs organisation last season, then .727 in the AFL and he already has five homers to start this season. With his slow bat speed, strikeouts may be a problem, and he'll likely be more of a .260/.270 hitter than a 200 hit machine. However, unlike almost all of the other prospects in the system, Bryant has shown he's not scared to work the count and take his walks, so high OBPs look likely for this right-handed monster. In his prime, this could be a 40 home run, .400 OBP stud who takes home an MVP award before it's all said and done. Despite being drafted less than a year ago, Bryant looks major league ready now, and could be up before Baez. Cubs fans, enjoy.

Jorge Soler was actually the more highly regarded Cuban defector when he and Yasiel Puig arrived in the States, and although projecting that kind of ability for him would be foolish, it's pretty clear we have a top prospect on our hands in this talented right fielder. His 2013 campaign was cut short when he broke a bone in his leg fouling a pitch off himself, and his 2014 campaign has been 1 at bat so far, as he left the first game with a hamstring injury, and is currently rehabbing. Once he gets healthy however, the Cubs are looking at a player with easy power and enough bat speed to sustain high averages. Drawing walks will need to become part of his game, but assuming he can do that there's reason to think Soler could be an elite middle-of-the-order bat that can do damage at the plate, on the bases and in the field. Staying healthy is a priority at the moment, with a possible 2015 arrival in the Majors.

Albert Almora is the youngest of the Cubs position player prospects, at just 19 years of age, but scouts have raved about his polish from the moment he has turned pro. He's an outstanding defensive center fielder, getting incredible reads off the bat thanks to his above average instincts that allow him to make up for a lack of speed. With the bat, he doesn't have the same kind of upside as the aforementioned prospects, but makes hard contact, and enough of it to think he could be a solid performer at the dish with some power once he fills out his body. Again, plate discipline is an issue, but he looks set to be a regular in at least some capacity for Chicago in the future.

Arismendy Alcantara hasn't received the same kind of hype as the other Cubs prospects, but all he's done is hit since becoming a professional. In the field his usual position is second base, but he has the ability to play a number of positions well and could end up a super utility player for the Cubs in a similar mould to Ben Zobrist. He has decent power, and good speed on the bases that could one day make him a 20/20 prospect on the middle infield, a rare commodity nowadays. In 2013 he showed a promising ability to take a walk, but so far in 2014 he has taken a big step back in that department at AAA, with just a 2.3% BB rate. He might be closest to the Majors of all the prospects, and considering he's the fifth best hitting prospect in this system, that's a pretty nice position to be in for the Cubs front office.

Overall, this is a franchise that has plenty to look forward to, particularly at the plate. If these highly heralded prospects continue their meteoric rise to the Majors and learn how to take a walk on the way, we could be looking at one of the Major League's most explosive offense, and one that could dominate the NL Central for several years. A couple of major splashes in the pitching free agent pool, and hey, maybe we'll see a World Series in Chicago in the next 106 years!