Still a devastatingly long 4 months until the regular season is up and running once more, but as always I will refuse to be silenced by the lack of action on the field. With 2012 almost over, it is time for my early 'power-rankings' in which I will rank every Major League team from 1-30. As always there will be areas for disagreement and without a doubt these rankings will change between now and opening day.
1. Washington Nationals
Having lead the league with 98 wins last season, Washington have done nothing but improve their team so far this off-season. The one-year acquisition of Haren was a no-lose decision, and if Haren can give them 200 strong innings he will further bolster their chances at repeating. The trade for Denard Span solved the center-field and lead-off hitter problems and the likelihood that Bryce Harper will improve makes their line-up ever-more enticing to go with the return of underrated catcher Wilson Ramos. The chance of 800 innings from Strasburg, Gonzalez, Zimmermann and Haren make this team too strong to ignore at number 1.
2. Toronto Blue Jays
At this point, the 2012 season becomes irrelevant for the Blue Jays. They will be fielding an entirely different line-up and rotation in 2013, and will be fielding one of the best in the Majors at that. The lopsided trade with the Marlins allowed them to get their hands on two rotation work-horses (Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle) as well as one of the top lead-off hitters in the game (Jose Reyes). Jose Bautista will return from injury, Edwin Encarnacion will look to improve on a break-out 2012, Brett Lawrie looks set to put up huge numbers and Melky Cabrera will have a point to prove after a controversy-filled season. The rotation will be stud-filled with Johnson, Buehrle, Dickey, Brandon Morrow and Ricky Romero. They are the team to beat in the American League.
3. Cincinatti Reds
A 97-win team in 2012 and the acquisition of Shin-Soo Choo fills a void they struggled with this year at the lead-off spot. Votto will do what Votto does, Brandon Phillips was outstanding this season and Jay Bruce should continue to be strong in hitter-friendly GABP. Johnny Cueto is coming off the back of a Cy-calibre season and Mat Latos should improve. If it is successful, the move of Chapman from bullpen to rotation could be devastating and make the rotation one of the finest in the major-leagues. The Reds look very strong indeed.
4. Detroit Tigers
They arguably have the best hitter and best pitcher in baseball, but the team runs much deeper than just a pair of studs. A deep rotation featuring Verlander, Scherzer, Fister and the re-acquired Anibal Sanchez should be dominant in the AL Central and a line-up that underwhelmed in 2012 will be bolstered by Torii Hunter and Victor Martinez. Should cruise to another Central title (have I heard that before?)
5. San Francisco Giants
This is a really hard team to rank. They warrant a great deal of respect for winning 2 World Series titles in 3 years and having basically spent the off-season so far ensuring they have the same roster next season they are a good bet to repeat. However, I have doubts. Lincecum and Zito are still not great in their rotation despite excellent post-seasons, Marco Scutaro will not continue to hit .360 and the lynchpin of their line-up Buster Posey looks set to regress a little after his MVP season. However, the rotation is still enviable with Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner and Ryan Vogelsong heading it up, and I expect Brandon Belt to finally start to be a big impact bat in this line-up. Write them off at your peril.
6. Los Angeles Dodgers
Another team that is hard to rank, but the team just has the kind of depth GM's dream about. The acquisition of Greinke immediately propels the rotation towards one of the best in the NL, but the depth behind him and Kershaw is outstanding. Young Korean left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu is a bit of an enigma, but the Dodgers will be hoping he can provide the kind of impact Yu Darvish did for the Rangers. Behind him is the lambasted Josh Beckett and Chad Billingsley, but the Dodgers still have Ted Lilly, Chris Capuano and Aaron Harang to provide help. The line-up is full of potential with Adrian Gonzalez, Hanley Ramirez, Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier to be joined later in the season by Carl Crawford.
7. Atlanta Braves
The Braves were quietly excellent in 2012, winning 94 games and falling foul of the infield fly rule in the wildcard game with St Louis. Jason Heyward lived up to the hype that surrounded him as a rookie, and the further development of first-baseman Freddie Freeman gave the Braves plenty to look forward to. The off-season acquisition of B.J. Upton replaces Michael Bourn atop the line-up and young Andrelton Simmons looked superb in his short taste of big league action. The rotation received a massive boost with the dominance of Kris Medlen, and he should continue that excellence next season. Mike Minor, Brandon Beachy, Tim Hudson and Paul Maholm complete a strong rotation, whilst Craig Kimbrel should enjoy another dominant season in the 'pen.
8. Texas Rangers
Having claimed it would have a busy off-season, Texas has been disappointing so far in its exploits, losing Josh Hamilton and failing to find his replacement. Yu Darvish was superb in 2012, but the back-end of the rotation is full of question marks and a heavy burden will be on the shoulders of Adrian Beltre to provide the fire-power this line-up needs. Bounce-back seasons should be expected from Nelson Cruz and Ian Kinsler, although the Rangers are still to find a spot in the line-up for young sensation Jurickson Profar. The Rangers look one big arm and one big bat shy of being a dominant force once again.
9. Los Angeles Angels
As always, hype has been huge surrounding the Angels this off-season, as they once again stole the show with a swoop for Josh Hamilton. The idea of an Angels line-up based on himself, Pujols and Trout is enticing, but question marks surrounding Mark Trumbo and the departure of Kendrys Morales means the line-up is not very deep at all. After Jered Weaver, this is a team with little to show for in the rotation although the recent trade for Vargas shows that management want to fix that and C.J. Wilson should bounce back after a thoroughly disappointing 2012 season. This is a team with a lot of potential but a lot of holes.
10. St Louis Cardinals
Another team that is tough to predict, the Cardinals boast a line-up that is full of potential, especially if outfielders Carlos Beltran and Matt Holliday continue to hit well. Furcal and Molina both appear to have turned corners with the bat, and David Freese and Allen Craig are both potent bats. The rotation has a useful mix of experience and youth, as Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright will be workhorses and Shelby Miller and Trevor Rosenthal will push for rotation spots after superb bullpen work at the end of the 2012 season.
11. Tampa Bay Rays
This is a team that went 90-72 last season and was unfortunate to miss out on a play-off spot. The loss of B.J. Upton and James Shields will hurt, but Wil Myers is an outstanding hitting prospect and a rotation featuring Cy-Young winner David Price, Jeremy Hellickson and Matt Moore still has the potential to win a lot of games. Evan Longoria is back from injury and primed for an MVP season, Desmond Jennings should finally meet his potential and Ben Zobrist will continue to fly under the radar as a superb hitter. I like them a lot this season.
12. Oakland Athletics
The surprise package of the 2012 season, the Athletics showed that the young rotation could provide results sooner than anyone expected. An outfield packed with potential in Crisp, Reddick and Cespedes, the acquisition of Chris Young makes this team even stronger at the plate although the infield looks very weak indeed. The rotation took a hit with the exit of Brandon McCarthy but a front three of Milone/Parker/Anderson could prove to be stronger than expected. This team is no weaker than it was in 2012, so expect more magic in Oakland.
13. Arizona Diamondbacks
A team that always seems to be in contention, the D-Backs have had a wild off-season. The recent acquisition of Cody Ross adds another big name to a packed outfield that includes Justin Upton, Gerardo Parra, Jason Kubel and Adam Eaton. The infield is quietly good, with Cliff Pennington brought in to keep the seat warm for newly acquired Didi Gregorius. The rotation looks extremely strong despite the exit of Trevor Bauer, with Brandon McCarthy joining Ian Kennedy, Wade Miley, Trevor Cahill, Daniel Hudson, Patrick Corbin and Tyler Skaggs. Arizona has a huge number of pieces it could deal in the out-field, so I expect their line-up to change between now and opening day. This is a team that could be an outside bet for a big year though.
14. New York Yankees
No, I haven't forgotten about them, I just think they look extremely weak at the moment. Cano is the only reliable bat in the line-up, with Teixeira struggling and Granderson's K-rate rising to astronomic levels. Ichiro is on a down-ward slope and will likely be replaced at the lead-off spot by the returning Gardner. Sabathia and Kuroda are strong at the front of the rotation, but Pettite, Hughes and Nova do not inspire confidence at the back-end and the successful return of Rivera in the bullpen is not a certainty. They'll probably rise up my list as we head towards opening day, but this is a team with a lot of problems.
15. Milwaukee Brewers
Surprising as it may seem, the Brewers scored the most runs in the National League last season, despite the loss of Prince Fielder. They have been quiet during the off-season so far, as early rumours linking them to Hamilton proved fruitless. The outfield is quietly superb, with Braun, Aoki and the suddenly powerful Carlos Gomez playing superb defense and giving the line-up great depth. The corner infielders are strong, with both Aramis Ramirez and Corey Hart set to take advantage of Miller Field's friendly confines. Jean Segura is a good young player and Rickie Weeks should bounce back. In the rotation, they look weak behind Gallardo which holds them back, but if the bullpen can get over the 2012 horror-show they could turn some heads.
16. Boston Red Sox
Fresh off their worst season since 1965, the Red Sox has been revamped so far this off-season. The additions of Victorino and Napoli gives the line-up a shot in the arm, and Pedroia, Ellsbury and Middlebrooks will look to be big contributors. The rotation is flakey, with the suddenly hapless Jon Lester supported by Clay Buchholz, Felix Doubront and John Lackey. The addition of Joel Hanrahan gives the bullpen depth, but this team has a long way to go if it wants to compete.
17. Kansas City Royals
Although their trade for James Shields hurts them a lot in the long run, there is no denying it helps them a lot in the short run. Still a lot of question-marks in the rotation though, Ervin Santana needs to be his second-half self and Jeremy Guthrie is not an elite number 2. The loss of Wil Myers may hurt them in the out-field though, as Francoeur's production continues to slide. This team is going to need immense production from Hosmer, Moustakas and Salvador Perez if it wants to challenge for a play-off spot.
18. Philadelphia Phillies
The only reason they rank this high is because of their lights-out rotation. However, as Cliff Lee's record last season showed, dominant pitching is only as good as the hitting behind it. An outfield of Darin Ruf, Ben Revere and Domonic Brown inspires no confidence whatsoever, and the cornerstones of the offense Ryan Howard and Chase Utley appear to be past their prime. Having Michael Young playing 3rd won't help either. Need to pull off a big move before I see them contending.
19. Baltimore Orioles
This is perhaps a harsh ranking considering the Orioles have basically kept the exact same roster that won 93 games last season and took them to the brink of an ALCS showing. As has been pointed out by many however, the Orioles won so many games last season on the back of an astonishingly good bullpen and a unnerving capacity to win one-run or extra-inning games. I don't think that is a trait that can be learnt and repeated, and a rotation with no ace and a line-up that is highly dependent on the production of Adam Jones could be in for a rough season. This is the ranking I feel least confident about however.
20. Cleveland Indians
They won just 68 games last season, but I love the moves they have undertaken so far in the off-season. The rotation is still sketchy, with Masterson erratic and Ubaldo Jimenez struggling a lot. But Jason Kipnis and Carlos Santana lead a good core of young hitters that has been bolstered by the additions of Mark Reynolds and Drew Stubbs although the loss of Shin-Soo Choo will be hard to replace. The bullpen is also very strong, and whilst I think the Indians are at least a year or two away from competing, they are moving in the right direction.
21. Chicago White Sox
Again, this ranking may seem harsh after they pushed Detroit all the way this season, but the brutal truth is that they finished 4 games above .500 despite receiving a good deal of unlikely and probably unrepeatable production. Chris Sale is a legitimate ace and the retention of Jake Peavy was vital. The lower half of the rotation is questionable however, and I expect players like Alex Rios and Alejandro de Aza to struggle more after surprise 2012 breakouts. I just don't see this team competing with Detroit at all.
22. San Diego Padres
A surprise 76-win team in 2012, this young squad looked capable of fighting it out with the best towards the rear-end of the season. However, the young rotation still lacks any big names with Clayton Richard heading Edinson Volquez and Eric Stults. Andrew Cashner has an electric fastball but struggled to control it at times in 2012, and at spacious Petco, the Padres can ill-afford a leaky rotation. Chase Headley looked the real deal in 2012, and the Padres have done well to hold onto him, he should get some support from the likes of Carlos Quentin, Cameron Maybin and Yonder Alonso. Like with a lot of these young teams however, I expect them to fall short in the highly competitive NL West.
23. Chicago Cubs
The Cubs have made some shrewd moves so far this off-season and a rotation featuring Edwin Jackson, Jeff Samardzija and Matt Garza could be competitive. There are bright spots at the plate too, with Starlin Castro on the verge of breakout, Anthony Rizzo delivering on his lofty expectations after his call-up last season and Alfonso Soriano continuing an impressive renaissance. Beyond them, however, the team is extremely lacking in power bats, and whilst they could win more games than you think, they are still way short of a play-off spot.
24. Pittsburgh Pirates
Still lacking an ace, or anything that resembles an ace and the loss of Hanrahan is unlikely to make the 'pen any stronger. Unless James McDonald can pitch the whole 2013 season as he did the first few months of 2012 the Pirates will be shipping far too many runs to contend, and a line-up with no-one other than Andrew McCutchen is going to struggle to keep up. Another what-if season for the Pirates.
25. Seattle Mariners
Looked for a big bat all off-season and were only able to get the waning production of Kendrys Morales in exchange for 200 innings out of the rotation. Another young team that looked good at times in 2012, King Felix has a useful number 2 behind him in Iwakuma but unless players like Jesus Montero, Dustin Ackley and Justin Smoak can fulfil their potential it will be another season of struggle in the tough AL West. Their outfield is just paper thin.
26. Minnesota Twins
The worst team in a terrible division last season, and the acquisition of Vance Worley fails to fill the most obvious hole for the Twins which is the need for an ace. Josh Willingham is unlikely to continue his power surge, and Joe Mauer is probably going to be traded by the deadline, this team is a long way shy of being competitive.
27. New York Mets
Their 2015 rotation looks enviable, but unfortunately for Mets fans, the 2013 version still includes Frank Francisco and no R.A. Dickey. David Wright and Ike Davis are the only bright spots in the line-up for the Mets who may choose to bring enticing catching prospect Travis D'Arnaud up sooner rather than later. The only bright spot they'll have this season is the ability to beat up on the team next on this list.
28. Miami Marlins
This time last season, the Marlins were a new team, with the off-season acquisitions of Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle. This time the only reason to continue watching them is Giancarlo Stanton who will literally be forced to be the entire offensive output for this woeful team. The rotation has a few bright spots, but this is a team that will be playing with unhappy players in an empty stadium, maybe they'll rebuild again next season.
29. Colorado Rockies
Only due to the offensive prowess of Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez do the Rockies avoid the ignominy of being last on this list. There were some bright young players for Colorado in 2012, and Josh Rutledge, Wilin Rosario and Tyler Colvin will look to build off that. Unfortunately, the rotation still looks appalling and will be forced to play every other game at hitters paradise Coors Field.
30. Houston Astros
This franchise has been reborn in the off-season, with new uniforms, logos and mascots to match the new division. Unfortunately, the Astros will be the whipping boys of the AL West and look set for another season of trying to avoid being the worst team in baseball.
Sunday 30 December 2012
Saturday 8 December 2012
Fantasy: Pitcher Rankings
With the men standing at the plate sorted out in yesterday's blog post, let's now turn out attention to those atop the mound, 60 feet away. Pitchers tend to be separated into starting pitchers and relief pitchers in fantasy, so I'll give you my top 50 starters and top 20 relievers along with why I've ranked them where I have.
So, there you have it. Looking back I may have got some of the placements wrong, but hopefully you get an idea of which kind of guys I like more than usual and which I would stay well away from. Some similar articles to come in the new year I hope, and if anything big happens from a free agent or trade standpoint then I'll be sure to post my opinions. As always, comments are welcome!
First up, the work-horses of a baseball team: the starting pitchers
1. Justin Verlander
2. Clayton Kershaw
3. Stephen Strasburg
4. Felix Hernandez
5. David Price
6. Matt Cain
7. Cliff Lee
8. Cole Hamels
9. Zack Greinke
10. Jered Weaver
A formidable top 10. Any of these guys will serve as an excellent ace of both your fantasy rotation and their respective team's rotation. I've gone with Verlander as number 1 overall because of his insane consistency. He's thrown over 200 innings in each of the past 6 seasons and has just become better and better through those seasons. This years stats were extremely comparable to his 2011 MVP performance, and there is no better bet in baseball for 250 strikeouts, 15 wins, an ERA under 3 and WHIP under 1.1. Draft him with absolute confidence. King Felix, Kershaw and an innings-cap free Strasburg should all be fantastic in 2012, and David Price will have no problem backing up his Cy-Young winning season with another dominant year atop the Tampa Bay rotation.
Matt Cain rightly earns his spot at 6th with a downright dominant year for San Francisco, the ERA and WHIP were minuscule and the increasing strikeouts make him a legitimate fantasy number 1. Cliff Lee had a freakish year in the 'win' column, but otherwise his performances were as good as they always are. Greinke, Hamels and Weaver should continue to be dominant aces for their respective teams, although I do think they are a drop-off in consistency from the top 7.
11. Johnny Cueto
12. Madison Bumgarner
13. R.A. Dickey
14. C.C. Sabathia
15. Yu Darvish
16. Chris Sale
17. Kris Medlen
18. Matt Moore
19. Max Scherzer
20. Adam Wainwright
Cueto had a dominant 2012 season, but pitching in a horrible home park pushes him outside my top 10. Young southpaw Madison Bumgarner had another excellent season for San Francisco, and at the age of just 23 he's still improving. Dickey is likely to regress a little, but as a knuckle-ball pitcher he is as immune to the effects of age as anyone, so don't be scared that last year was a fluke. Sabathia will continue to be a workhorse for the Yankees whilst Matt Moore should put together a fine campaign for Tampa Bay as strike-outs will come easily but he needs to get better at getting ahead in the count - the astronomic .389 BAA on a 0-0 count is cause for concern.
Darvish, Sale and Medlen are all pitchers I expect to push on from excellent 2012 seasons. Darvish and Sale have age and astonishing strikeout rates on their side, whilst Medlen's pinpoint accuracy is arguably the best in the major leagues. Scherzer could be a valuable sleeper in many leagues this year, his post all-star stats were on a par with rotation-mate Verlander, and it was only a horrific April performance that ruined his overall stats. He'll once again challenge for the Major League high in strikeouts.
21. Mat Latos
22. James Shields
23. Yovani Gallardo
24. Jordan Zimmermann
25. Roy Halladay
26. Jake Peavy
27. Aroldis Chapman
28. Hiroki Kuroda
29. Doug Fister
30. Brett Anderson
Latos should find a bit more consistency in the hitter-friendly confines of GABP this season, although his large spike in home runs last season from 16 to 25 is something owners will have to live with as a product of the stadium. Shields will be productive wherever he is playing, whilst Gallardo should be a consistent strikeout producer, even if you do have to live with the occasional shocking outing. Jordan Zimmermann had a quietly excellent season for the Nationals last season meaning he could go unnoticed in drafts. The strike-outs aren't elite, but his astonishing tendency to get out of trouble (.308 batting average against with none on/none out but .165 with men on and 2 outs or .105 with a man on 3rd and less than 2 outs) is a key asset. Finally Roy Halladay struggled at the back end of last season, and his diminished velocity is cause for concern.
I expect Peavy to regress after a sensational 2012 season, but he still obviously holds value. Chapman would be a bit of an enigma if he joins the rotation as expected, but you can be sure he'll strike-out a ton. I think they'll limit his innings if he does start, but if last year is anything to go by then he could have extraordinary numbers. Kuroda and Fister were both quietly excellent in 2012, and could be steals in the draft whilst others go after big name players. Brett Anderson showed glimpses of brilliance after returning from injury, and whilst the injury and lack of strikeouts are cause for concern, his immaculate control should mean cold slumps are a rarity.
31. Brandon Morrow
32. Wade Miley
33. Josh Johnson
34. Ian Kennedy
35. Ryan Vogelsong
36. Dan Haren
37. Anibal Sanchez
38. Derek Holland
39. Jeremy Hellickson
40. Jon Lester
I'm all in on Brandon Morrow next season. After struggles with injury in his first few seasons, then a struggle with consistency, Morrow was putting it all together last year until an injury once again plagued him and kept him out for half the year. The strikeouts are a given with Morrow, and I think his control is greatly increased meaning the ERA should stay at a reasonable level. Miley had a superb season, but I don't expect him to repeat and Josh Johnson should find a modicum of consistency with the Blue Jays. Vogelsong continues to be a revelation in fantasy, with his ERA remaining one of the best in the Major Leagues.
Haren should bounce back with the Nationals this year, although if you're expecting a repeat of 2011 you may be disappointed. Sanchez had an excellent stretch with the Tigers, but he is still erratic and as such will struggle with some poor performances that dampen the brilliance of others. Holland and Hellickson are both talented young pitchers who should win as many games as they lose and help you out with ERA and WHIP. Hellickson is a bit of a gamble, because he has no strikeouts to fall back on if hitters start picking the change-up. Lester can't do much worse than last season, although his seemingly nonchalant attitude to his poor performances last season leave a lot to be desired.
41. Jarrod Parker
42. C.J. Wilson
43. Jonathon Niese
44. Matt Harrison
45. Tim Lincecum
46. Edwin Jackson
47. Jeff Samardzija
48. Trevor Cahill
49. Tommy Hanson
50. James McDonald
Parker was superb despite being given the pressure of the no.1 spot in a rookie-filled Oakland rotation, and he should be able to carry that success into 2013. C.J. Wilson had a season to forget in 2012, and whilst I don't think the inconsistency problems will be easy to shake off he could be a late-round sleeper. Matt Harrison's upside is limited due to the lack of strikeouts, but he continues to be extremely efficient for the Rangers and is a good late pick. Lincecum continues to be someone I'd stay away from despite his post-season success from the bullpen. He just isn't the same pitcher as he was three years ago, and two seasons of woeful performances have persuaded me he is nothing more than a gamble this year.
Jackson and Samardzija are both heavy on strikeouts but have little consistency, and whilst they may be worth a gamble they are far from reliable. Cahill and Hanson should have solid seasons, but as always they are liable to a bad performance or two. James McDonald had a disastrous second half, but makes my list by virtue of his pre all-star break performances - if he can reconjure some of that magic he could yet be fantasy relevant.
And with a long list of starters out of the way, we can move on to relievers
1. Craig Kimbrel
2. Aroldis Chapman
3. Jonathan Papelbon
4. Fernando Rodney
5. Sergio Romo
6. Rafael Soriano
7. Joel Hanrahan
8. Greg Holland
9. Huston Street
10. Casey Janssen
11. Addison Reed
12. Jason Grilli
13. Brandon League
14. Mariano Rivera
15. Ryan Madson
16. Jason Motte
17. J.J. Putz
18. Brian Wilson
19. John Axford
20. Carlos Marmol
Craig Kimbrel is the clear number 1, but after his massive 2012 campaign and recent reinstatement in the closer role, Chapman has just as much upside. Papelbon earns number 3 on my chart because of his history, but last season was a big disappointment for him. Fernando Rodney will regress but still be a shutdown closer in my opinion. Sergio Romo has the potential to be an absolute stud with that deadly slider, although the rumours about an innings limit are slightly worrying.
Rafael Soriano will get plenty of opportunities in Washington, although he has two quality relievers breathing down his neck. Joel Hanrahan has struggled with command in recent seasons, but should have a reasonably tight grip on the job in Boston. Greg Holland proved he has the stuff and the mettle to be an efficient 9th inning man for the Royals whilst Huston Street looks dominant every time he avoids the DL - maybe this year he avoids it completely. Casey Janssen was superb as the fill-in closer last year, and seems to have the job in front of Sergio Santos.
Addison Reed should improve with experience, and Jason Grilli will finally get a chance at the ninth inning after making himself a dominant set-up man. Brandon League is a good reliever, but one slip-up may see him replaced by the much more effective Kenley Jansen. Rivera is a high risk pick after the injury this year, but I would love to see him back on the mound baffling hitters in what will likely be his final season. The new Angel Ryan Madson closes out the top 15, although with Ernesto Frieri waiting in the wings his leash may be extremely short in Anaheim.
Motte may have ranked in the top five on this list were it not for a pre-season injury that has him possibly thinking about season-ending surgery. Putz always seems one blown save away from losing his job before pulling it all back together, although he undoubtedly has the stuff to get a lot of strikeouts. Wilson needs to find a job before becoming fantasy relevant again, and after a full season with no work he is a definite risk. One year removed from being one of the top closers in baseball, Axford was simply horrible this year as he blew save after save for the Brewers. His stuff suggests he should turn that around. Marmol closes out my list because he currently has the job in Chicago, but he may be traded to a team with a better closer or dropped in favour of Fujikawa at any moment.
So, there you have it. Looking back I may have got some of the placements wrong, but hopefully you get an idea of which kind of guys I like more than usual and which I would stay well away from. Some similar articles to come in the new year I hope, and if anything big happens from a free agent or trade standpoint then I'll be sure to post my opinions. As always, comments are welcome!
Friday 7 December 2012
Fantasy: Hitter Rankings
One of the reasons I love baseball is the pure length of the season. I'm a big football, rugby and NFL fan too, but all those sports have small seasons with games at the weekend. Although they are more physically demanding sports, the same kind of commitment, perseverance and sheer fluctuations are not close to those in the world of Major League Baseball. Unfortunately, even with 162 games + a month of post-season action, you're still left with the depressing off-season over winter. Fortunately, I'm able to spend that time fantasising about free agency, trades and now fantasy baseball.
I've tried hard not to write any blog posts on fantasy, because I consider it a bit cheap and a bit easy. But then I remember that there are people who's jobs are based on fantasy sports - people I respect and have a lot of time for like Matthew Berry and Eric Karabell. So, I figured that nothing would block out the bitter cold from outside more than compiling a few lists. At each position I'll list the top 10 players and then briefly explain why they are in that order, and go through some notable inclusions or exemptions.
So, first off the board is catcher, arguably the most demanding position in all of sport
1. Buster Posey
2. Carlos Santana
3. Yadier Molina
4. Joe Mauer
5. Matt Wieters
6. Miguel Montero
7. Mike Napoli
8. Salvador Perez
9. Wilin Rosario
10. Jesus Montero
No surprises at number one, as Buster Posey will be a popular draft-day target in fantasy leagues coming off the back of an incredible MVP season. After that, I should point out, there is a significant drop-off. I simply don't feel confident at catcher this season, and not only because the position is so fragile in terms of injuries. Any between 2 and arguably 7 could warrant consideration to be the second catcher off the board. Santana struggled through the first half of 2012, before finishing off the season on a high. Molina was superb, and it's only by virtue of the fact defensive stats are not applicable to fantasy baseball that he is not higher. I'm not a big Joe Mauer fan, because his power is non-existent and he looks like he'll be playing in a weak Minnesota line-up. He should still be a good bet for a .300 average and 80 RBI/runs but temper any 2010 repeat expectations.
Napoli struggled this year, but is still an excellent bet for 20 homers with the Green Monster to aim for. I rate Salvador Perez extremely highly. He had a stonking 88.7% contact rate which means a high average is extremely sustainable and he has hit well over .300 in every year of his minor league career. He is well built so I think the power will come, and a season at the heart of an improving Royals line-up could provide superb mid-round value. Wilin Rosario had a big 2012 for the Rockies, cranking a team rookie record 28 home runs. He's a big boy, and the power is legit, but I'm not as keen on him as some might be. Unlike Perez, he has an extremely high strikeout rate, and if teams start feeding him more breaking pitches the average might plummet. He's still got insane power potential though, so if you need home runs from your back-stop look no further. Montero struggled a bit in 2012 with a new team, but with the walls coming in at Safeco and him being given more time to accommodate to major league pitching I expect a solid season from the young hitter.
First base is a position usually associated with great depth, but that simply isn't the case this year...
1. Joey Votto
2. Prince Fielder
3. Albert Pujols
4. Edwin Encarnacion
5. Billy Butler
6. Adrian Gonzalez
7. Allen Craig
8. Freddie Freeman
9. Paul Goldschmidt
10. Eric Hosmer
Typically a position with superb depth, first base is a weak position in 2013, particularly if you want consistency. The top three are all interchangeable in my opinion, I expect Votto will continue to be dominant, hitting for a high average, drawing walks and knocking out homers at will. Whilst I expect Fielder's power to increase next season, I don't think the .300 average is particularly sustainable although the 30 homers and 100 RBI are exactly what you want from a first baseman. Pujols should put up his usual stat line, but a regression in average seems likely and 30 home runs rather than 40 is what to expect. After the first three there is a significant drop-off in my opinion, and I would place Buster Posey at 4th if I was including catchers with 1B eligibility. Encarnacion's power is legitimate, although a slight regression is probably in order particularly in batting average. A year in that suddenly strong Blue Jays line-up will do no harm though. Butler proved last year that he can hit balls over the fence as well as into them - he might be easier to get than most on this list too due to being criminally underrated because of his DHing in my opinion.
Adrian Gonzalez continues to be an enigma - he continues to hit solidly for .300 every season and the power surges he sometimes has only serves to make the dry streaks more maddening. The Dodgers line-up looks stronger than ever next season, so I expect him to put up solid numbers. Freeman, Goldschmidt and Craig are all guys who have significant upside - Craig crushed the ball when healthy last year, Goldschmidt is primed for a breakout (and he has speed) and Freeman will be playing in a stronger line-up than ever. Hosmer can be placed with guys like Ike Davis, Anthony Rizzo and Adam LaRoche in a group of high-risk, high-reward players. I like Hosmer to bounce back in a big way this year, so he makes my top 10.
And now moving on to the traditionally weak second base
1. Robinson Cano
2. Ian Kinsler
3. Dustin Pedroia
4. Brandon Phillips
5. Aaron Hill
6. Ben Zobrist
7. Jason Kipnis
8. Jose Altuve
9. Rickie Weeks
10. Chase Utley
Again, there is a clear division at this position. Robinson Cano is number 1 here - and it's not even close. Despite getting off to a poor start, Cano soon picked up and once again became the most consistent second base in the Major Leagues - oh and did I mention he's missed just 12 games over the last 6 seasons combined. Preference really determines who you pick next. Although Kinsler struggled in 2012 I've gone for him because of his power/speed potential. The poor average appears to be something you'll have to live with. Pedroia struggled with injuries a bit this year, but the average is just so reliable around .300 and his 20 homer/20 steal potential never hurts. After that it's a bit of a gamble. Phillips was fantastic for the Reds when Votto went down injured and he provided help in every fantasy category meaning he garners 4th spot. Aaron Hill was actually 2nd in fantasy points at 2B this year, and the only reason he isn't higher is because this is the first time power and average have combined for him.
Zobrist is another reliable fantasy performer, although he's been unable to match his breakout 2009. He won't hit more than 20 homers, steal more than 20 bases or hit for an average higher than .300. But at the same time there is no surer bet in baseball for 15 homers, 15 steals and a .280 average and his positional eligibility makes him attractive too. Kipnis is someone I'd avoid if possible. He provides great stats in the stolen base department, but hit just .257 with 3 homers combined in July, August and September. Altuve has great speed, but he's literally the only major league quality hitter in that line-up. Weeks has significant bounce back potential but that average could be an absolute killer. Utley might be primed for one more big season as the Phillies look to defy the age barrier.
So, on to another position of typical scarcity: shortstop
1. Troy Tulowitzki
2. Jose Reyes
3. Hanley Ramirez
4. Starlin Castro
5. Ian Desmond
6. Elvis Andrus
7. Asdrubal Cabrera
8. Alcides Escobar
9. Jimmy Rollins
10. Derek Jeter
Tulowitzki only played 47 games this year and he didn't set the world alight in the limited time he had. I know, this is a big risk, but in my opinion it is a risk well worth taking. I still wouldn't take Tulowitzki until the second round, but I think he could be underrated because of this year. Across the three seasons before his low in average was .297 and in home runs was 27. Very few players, never mind short-stops in baseball can match that, so if Tulo can stay on the field for 150 games (not a given) he'll finish as the number 1 short-stop no doubt. That upside is so big, I'm willing to take the injury risk. The next 4 are pretty obvious, Castro is set for a big year and I think Desmond is another potentially underrated player - the power is completely legitimate although I don't know if he'll be so consistent.
As I've said, I think the Rangers would be wise to trade Andrus, although from a fantasy viewpoint staying at the top of their line-up is critical because steals and runs are pretty much his only commodities. I've never been a big Asdrubal Cabrera believer and I think last seasons 16 home runs are what to expect, not the freakish 25 from the year before. Escobar basically provides the same stats as Andrus but at a far cheaper price and both Rollins and Jeter are likely to regress but not enough to take them out of fantasy relevance assuming they stay injury free.
And, to complete the infield we head over to third base
1. Miguel Cabrera
2. Evan Longoria
3. Adrian Beltre
4. David Wright
5. Ryan Zimmerman
6. Chase Headley
7. Hanley Ramirez
8. Brett Lawire
9. Pablo Sandoval
10. Aramis Ramirez
Unlike the other infield positions, third base is once again very deep this year. Of course a repeat of his triple crown season is unlikely for Cabrera, but the fact remains that he is the best pure hitter in baseball. He will hit for a .300 average, 35 home runs, 115 RBI and he'll probably have change to spare too. Have no qualms drafting him number 1. I'm taking Longoria 2 despite the injury concerns, because I think he has an MVP season in him somewhere along the line and I'm going to want to ride it when it happens. Beltre is as consistent as they get at the hot corner, and Wright gets the nod over Zimmerman because of his consistency and surprising stolen base production.
This is where you know third base is deep, because MVP candidate Chase Headley is still on the board. Another criminally overrated player, I would have no hesitation before taking him over a big name like Ramirez. Spacious Petco limits his production, and I think 31 homers are unlikely to repeat, but Headley's performance this year was no fluke. Ramirez is another player I'd be happy to leave alone. His work rate is poor meaning he doesn't beat out ground balls he should, and he tends to get into frustrating slumps. He'll probably end up with 20 homers and 20 steals, but the average is going down and his temperament is not good. Lawrie is someone I preferred to leave alone with all the hype this season, but his speed/power combo contains a lot of upside so go after him this year. Don't overpay because of Sandoval's post-season performances, but if he can stay healthy all year he could turn a lot of heads.
So, now we turn it over to the outfield, which is obviously a lot deeper so I'll give you my top 30.
1. Mike Trout
2. Ryan Braun
3. Matt Kemp
4. Andrew McCutchen
5. Carlos Gonzalez
6. Giancarlo Stanton
7. Jose Bautista
8. Jason Heyward
9. Josh Hamilton
10. Justin Upton
11. Adam Jones
12. Matt Holliday
13. Austin Jackson
14. B.J. Upton
15. Yoenis Cespedes
16. Michael Bourn
17. Jay Bruce
18. Curtis Granderson
19. Jacoby Ellsbury
20. Bryce Harper
21. Shin-Soo Choo
22. Carlos Gomez
23. Josh Willingham
24. Alex Rios
25. Andre Ethier
26. Carlos Beltran
27. Nelson Cruz
28. Michael Morse
29. Josh Reddick
30. Melky Cabrera
Numbers 1 and 2 are clearly interchangeable on this list, I've gone with Trout because of the incredible power/speed/average potential although if you're expecting a 2012 repeat you may be a little disappointed. Don't be tempted to choose a sexy pick like McCutchen or Heyward over Braun - Braun is as consistent a player as they come and has proven he can hit 40 homers with or without Prince Fielder. Stanton is one to watch for me, his power potential is simply staggering. I expect Carlos Gonzalez to bounce back from a bit of a power drop in 2012 with the return of Troy Tulowitzki and he might drop down a few draft boards. Despite an injury-plagued season, Jose Bautista remains a top option, so again don't be scared to draft him. Temper expectations on Hamilton - in fact avoid if possible regardless of where he ends up. The way he ended the season left a sour taste in my mouth, although as always if he can stay on the field he will hit 30+ homers - just be prepared for icy cold droughts.
The second tier is a mix of high-upside and reliable guys. Again, Matt Holliday is not a popular pick that will have fellow draftees crowing in your genius, but he can win fantasy leagues with his reliability. The average is always above .290 and the home run totals always catch you by surprise. He'll be criminally underrated on draft day, don't miss out on him. I expect Justin Upton to bounce back, although I won't be spending a really early pick on him. Cespedes, B.J. Upton and Austin Jackson are all guys who could easily finish the season in the top 10, so are potentially bargains if you manage to predict which one has a monster season. Two guys I would avoid if possible are in the low teens - Ellsbury and Granderson. Ellsbury was dire even when on the field last season, and rumours the Red Sox are trying to sell him doesn't inspire confidence. Granderson is an astonishing beneficiary of the right field porch at Yankee Stadium, but his strikeout rate just continues to rise (195 this year) so the average could be a killer. Don't like that the steals have dropped off the table either.
Bryce Harper probably stands out at 20, but as he showed in glimpses this year he's simply a phenomenal talent. I think it'll take a couple of years for the average to come round and the strike-outs to fall, but his power is undoubtedly an asset and he's a risk worth taking if you want some pop. Choo is another 'boring' pick, someone from the Ben Zobrist school of baseball with reliability in the steals, power and average department but the distinct lack of upside. Rios will not repeat his 2012 season, but still provides a lot of value, as does Carlos Beltran who's skills may be fading but his 32 homers this year are certainly not to be sniffed at. Cruz and Ethier offer upside as bounce-back candidates, whilst I've begrudgingly included Melky Cabrera on this list because I think he'll help you out in a lot of categories atop a suddenly strong Blue Jays line-up.
So, there you have it. My 7th December hitters rankings and early thoughts. Not a whole lot that is off-the-wall, but probably a few areas to dispute over, so obviously comment below if you disagree or heck, maybe even agree!
Pitchers to come at some stage over the weekend I hope.
Thursday 6 December 2012
3 Trades That Make Sense
Free agency has begun at quite a rate in the Major Leagues, and this years winter meetings promise to be as exciting as ever. Several free-agents have begun to move off the board, with B.J. Upton signing in Atlanta, Mike Napoli and Shane Victorino joining the Red Sox and the Nationals securing a one-year deal with Dan Haren. However, it is not just free agent signings that will be taking place this off-season. Trades are always hot-topic, and during the off-season this is no different. Some trades clearly benefit both sides whilst some leave fans and players alike scratching their head (ahem Marlins/Blue Jays). So which trades would make sense this off-season?
1. The Texas Rangers trade Elvis Andrus to the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for Justin Upton
This trade makes sense in my eyes for a number of reasons. Firstly, the Texas Rangers have top prospect Jurickson Profar playing elite short-stop at AAA, and scouts generally consider him major-league ready. The small glimpse we got of Profar in September last year was certainly enticing, and I'm willing to believe that he would not be much a of a downgrade at all with the bat in the Rangers line-up. They need to make room for him somehow, although whether they would prefer to deal away second baseman Ian Kinsler remains to be seen. Secondly, with the possible exit of Josh Hamilton (though I do think the Rangers will keep him), Texas will need an impact bat to slot into it's line-up. Upton had a down year in 2012, but he's still young and has incredible 5-tool potential. He'd be an immediate upgrade to the Ranger line-up. For the Diamondbacks, this fills a large hole at a shallow position at SS, and also creates room in their out-field for young star Adam Eaton. There has also reportedly been a dispute with Upton over his maturity, although the D-Backs maintain he is a key cog in their line-up. The Rangers have publicly said they will not be trading away either short-stop for Upton, but in my opinion (and especially if they are unable to sign Hamilton) the trade makes sense.
2. The Philadelphia Phillies trade Vance Worley to the Colorado Rockies in exchange for Dexter Fowler
As a Colorado fan I don't really love this trade, but it makes sense from a baseball viewpoint. I expect the Phillies to go hard after Bourn, but this trade may well be seen as a cheaper one - Fowler is under team control for another 3 years. Coming off the back of his best year in the Majors with a .300 clip from the lead-off spot, Fowler is one of the top players in the Rockies organisation, but they need starting pitching desperately. Worley is probably at the peak of his trade value, although he still provides excellent value for the Rockies and would help an ailing rotation. Fowler's home/road splits provide reason for concern, although the Reds are also said to be interested in securing his CF services.
3. The Minnesota Twins trade Josh Willingham to the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for James Shields
Having secured themselves a SS in Yunel Escobar, the Rays are still on the hunt for an impact bat to firm up their line-up. They have a plethora of pitching, and though Josh Willingham has just come off a career-year for the Twins, James Shields would likely be a pitcher of a calibre high enough to pique their interest. Aged 30, Shields is younger than you would expect for a pitcher with well over 1300 innings logged including 200+ over the past 6 seasons. He is extremely durable, and more recently has become one of the top pitchers in the American League, although he is said to be one of the most likely players to be traded this off-season. It is likely and maybe even possible that Shields ends up being traded away for a group of prospects, but this trade appears to answer immediate needs for both teams.
1. The Texas Rangers trade Elvis Andrus to the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for Justin Upton
This trade makes sense in my eyes for a number of reasons. Firstly, the Texas Rangers have top prospect Jurickson Profar playing elite short-stop at AAA, and scouts generally consider him major-league ready. The small glimpse we got of Profar in September last year was certainly enticing, and I'm willing to believe that he would not be much a of a downgrade at all with the bat in the Rangers line-up. They need to make room for him somehow, although whether they would prefer to deal away second baseman Ian Kinsler remains to be seen. Secondly, with the possible exit of Josh Hamilton (though I do think the Rangers will keep him), Texas will need an impact bat to slot into it's line-up. Upton had a down year in 2012, but he's still young and has incredible 5-tool potential. He'd be an immediate upgrade to the Ranger line-up. For the Diamondbacks, this fills a large hole at a shallow position at SS, and also creates room in their out-field for young star Adam Eaton. There has also reportedly been a dispute with Upton over his maturity, although the D-Backs maintain he is a key cog in their line-up. The Rangers have publicly said they will not be trading away either short-stop for Upton, but in my opinion (and especially if they are unable to sign Hamilton) the trade makes sense.
2. The Philadelphia Phillies trade Vance Worley to the Colorado Rockies in exchange for Dexter Fowler
As a Colorado fan I don't really love this trade, but it makes sense from a baseball viewpoint. I expect the Phillies to go hard after Bourn, but this trade may well be seen as a cheaper one - Fowler is under team control for another 3 years. Coming off the back of his best year in the Majors with a .300 clip from the lead-off spot, Fowler is one of the top players in the Rockies organisation, but they need starting pitching desperately. Worley is probably at the peak of his trade value, although he still provides excellent value for the Rockies and would help an ailing rotation. Fowler's home/road splits provide reason for concern, although the Reds are also said to be interested in securing his CF services.
3. The Minnesota Twins trade Josh Willingham to the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for James Shields
Having secured themselves a SS in Yunel Escobar, the Rays are still on the hunt for an impact bat to firm up their line-up. They have a plethora of pitching, and though Josh Willingham has just come off a career-year for the Twins, James Shields would likely be a pitcher of a calibre high enough to pique their interest. Aged 30, Shields is younger than you would expect for a pitcher with well over 1300 innings logged including 200+ over the past 6 seasons. He is extremely durable, and more recently has become one of the top pitchers in the American League, although he is said to be one of the most likely players to be traded this off-season. It is likely and maybe even possible that Shields ends up being traded away for a group of prospects, but this trade appears to answer immediate needs for both teams.
Thursday 29 November 2012
A (late) look back on the pre-season predictions
Well, a quick look back at that post from March provides a few chuckles and shakes of the head. They certainly were bold predictions, and for that reason a lot of them now seem laughable. Without further ado, let's look back...
1. Yovani Gallardo wins the Cy Young
Hmm. Not my best call. Gallardo got off to a terrible start, struggling through April with a 6.08 ERA. He began to turn this around after that, and only in September did his ERA rise above 4 again. However, final counting stats of 204 IP, a 3.66 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, a 16-9 record and 204 strikeouts are (whilst good) not Cy-calibre figures. His strikeout rate is still excellent, but he needs to work on consistency. Time is on his side, but for me to ever make a prediction involving him and Cy Young again, he is going to need to put together a full season of brilliance.
2. The Red Sox don't make the play-offs (again)
An excellent call on my part! Not only did the Red Sox fail to make the play-offs, they also contrived to finish bottom of the AL East with a pitiful 69-93 record. Bobby Valentine suffered immensely at the helm, and the early trade of Youkilis was only the start of a number of high-profile exits, as a blockbuster trade with the Dodgers saw Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford and Josh Beckett leave the club. Things can't get much worse for them in 2013, although they currently have a skeleton of a roster and will need to make big roster moves if they want to have a sniff at post-season baseball.
3. Giancarlo Stanton will win the home run crown
Almost a fantastic call. Sure, Stanton wasn't a nobody entering 2012, but his stock has risen immeasurably over the last 8 months as he put together a superb season for Miami. His final season total of 37 homers was not enough to challenge Miguel Cabrera's 44, but Stanton played just 123 games. Stanton may well have fulfilled this prediction but for an injury that sidelined him for the best part of a month and may have hampered him when he did take to the field. He is a physical freak, and despite playing in a massive stadium at the heart of a weak order he was one of the most punishing players in baseball. If he plays 160 games next season, he will smash this prediction - no way this seems all that bold now.
4. Lucas Duda becomes an elite outfielder
Hear that? It's embarrassment. Duda was horrible in 2012, failing to capitalize on what could possibly have been a full season at the heart of the Mets line-up. He started the season so poorly he was dropped to AAA in May, and failed to put it together whilst in the minors as evidenced by his weak final counting stats of .239 average with 15 homers and 57 RBI. The power has never been a problem, but Duda struck out far too much to hit for anything like a good average, and he will have to perform out of his skin in Spring Training if he wants to find himself on the Mets line-up card come opening day. Elite is a word bandied around far too much in my opinion, but in no realms of possibility could Duda be considered just that.
5. The Nationals go to the NLCS
From a terrible call to an excellent call. In the end, I fell just short in this prediction as the Nationals lost the 5-game NLDS and ultimately ended a superb year on a sour note. However, they finished the regular season with the best record in baseball, falling just shy of 100 wins. The pitching was the lynchpin of the side, and timely hitting from Zimmerman, Harper, Morse, LaRoche and Desmond among others made this team the best in the Majors, and they'll be bitterly disappointed they couldn't turn that into post-season success. However, they have a young side and should be a sure bet for another good year in 2013, it'll certainly be no bold prediction to see them play October baseball once more.
So there you have it. 3 excellent predictions and 2 extremely forgettable predictions. I had a lot of fun following these during the season, and will of course do the same thing in a few months time for 2013.
1. Yovani Gallardo wins the Cy Young
Hmm. Not my best call. Gallardo got off to a terrible start, struggling through April with a 6.08 ERA. He began to turn this around after that, and only in September did his ERA rise above 4 again. However, final counting stats of 204 IP, a 3.66 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, a 16-9 record and 204 strikeouts are (whilst good) not Cy-calibre figures. His strikeout rate is still excellent, but he needs to work on consistency. Time is on his side, but for me to ever make a prediction involving him and Cy Young again, he is going to need to put together a full season of brilliance.
2. The Red Sox don't make the play-offs (again)
An excellent call on my part! Not only did the Red Sox fail to make the play-offs, they also contrived to finish bottom of the AL East with a pitiful 69-93 record. Bobby Valentine suffered immensely at the helm, and the early trade of Youkilis was only the start of a number of high-profile exits, as a blockbuster trade with the Dodgers saw Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford and Josh Beckett leave the club. Things can't get much worse for them in 2013, although they currently have a skeleton of a roster and will need to make big roster moves if they want to have a sniff at post-season baseball.
3. Giancarlo Stanton will win the home run crown
Almost a fantastic call. Sure, Stanton wasn't a nobody entering 2012, but his stock has risen immeasurably over the last 8 months as he put together a superb season for Miami. His final season total of 37 homers was not enough to challenge Miguel Cabrera's 44, but Stanton played just 123 games. Stanton may well have fulfilled this prediction but for an injury that sidelined him for the best part of a month and may have hampered him when he did take to the field. He is a physical freak, and despite playing in a massive stadium at the heart of a weak order he was one of the most punishing players in baseball. If he plays 160 games next season, he will smash this prediction - no way this seems all that bold now.
4. Lucas Duda becomes an elite outfielder
Hear that? It's embarrassment. Duda was horrible in 2012, failing to capitalize on what could possibly have been a full season at the heart of the Mets line-up. He started the season so poorly he was dropped to AAA in May, and failed to put it together whilst in the minors as evidenced by his weak final counting stats of .239 average with 15 homers and 57 RBI. The power has never been a problem, but Duda struck out far too much to hit for anything like a good average, and he will have to perform out of his skin in Spring Training if he wants to find himself on the Mets line-up card come opening day. Elite is a word bandied around far too much in my opinion, but in no realms of possibility could Duda be considered just that.
5. The Nationals go to the NLCS
From a terrible call to an excellent call. In the end, I fell just short in this prediction as the Nationals lost the 5-game NLDS and ultimately ended a superb year on a sour note. However, they finished the regular season with the best record in baseball, falling just shy of 100 wins. The pitching was the lynchpin of the side, and timely hitting from Zimmerman, Harper, Morse, LaRoche and Desmond among others made this team the best in the Majors, and they'll be bitterly disappointed they couldn't turn that into post-season success. However, they have a young side and should be a sure bet for another good year in 2013, it'll certainly be no bold prediction to see them play October baseball once more.
So there you have it. 3 excellent predictions and 2 extremely forgettable predictions. I had a lot of fun following these during the season, and will of course do the same thing in a few months time for 2013.
Friday 2 November 2012
Breaking down free agency
Although for players, fans and coaches the season has just ended, 2013 is now starting for the GMs of every Major League team. The building of a World Series champion starts now, and whilst some teams (Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers) are perennial big spenders, it is often the shrewdest of moves that prove the most important.
Unlike last year, the number of 'big name' free agents is thin, with Josh Hamilton and Zack Greinke heading the respective hitting and pitching classes. Other big names include David Ortiz, Mike Napoli, Kyle Lohse, B.J. Upton, Michael Bourn, Delmon Young, Ichiro, Nick Swisher, Ryan Dempster, Adam LaRoche and Anibal Sanchez. As always there will be a number of trade rumours swirling too, not least around Arizona's young outfielder Justin Upton.
In terms of teams with money to spend, the Boston Red Sox have a huge amount of payroll free and several spots in a line-up to fill, so they may be active this winter. The Yankees are always looking to upgrade their roster, the Phillies will be active and you can expect both LA teams to try and build upon a high-spending 2012.
Josh Hamilton is perhaps the most intriguing free agent on the market. Aged 31, he's likely on the downward slope of his career, but as he proved in 2012 he still has plenty of pop in his bat. Off the field issues will always plague him, with his career almost over before it began due to alcohol and drug problems (see my blog post from a couple of years ago). Injuries are almost a guarantee with Hamilton too, and with his twilight years approaching, teams will be anxious that he spends more time on the field than off it. He'll likely command the highest price of all free agents too, but with good reason: in terms of raw upside there are few in baseball who can match him. His incredible power is simply unmatched, and in any ball-park he should be a lock for 30+ home runs as long as he garners 500 plate appearances. His fielding is much improved too, and he offers a good glove at any OF position, although at this stage in his career LF seems the most likely destination. I think any team would be foolish to offer him more than 3 or 4 years considering all of the question marks, but it wouldn't surprise me to see someone like the Yankees make a big money move.
Zack Greinke is another interesting name to watch during free agency. After a trade from the Brewers at the deadline this year, he was superb for the Angels in the second half and secured himself a lot of interest in the off-season. Off all the pitchers in free agency, Greinke is really the only 'ace' available, as he offers the possibility of 15-20 wins and 200 strike-outs for the next 5 seasons. Considering his fantastic half-season with them, I expect the Angels to do as much as they can to secure his services for another 3 or 4 years, but among others the Boston Red Sox are likely to be interested in him.
David Ortiz is an intriguing free agent should he hit the market. It was expected that the Red Sox would offer him another contract after two 1-year stints, but with nothing concrete yet, Ortiz may test the waters. Unlike most free agents, Ortiz is really restricted to the American League, as his services are really only useful from the Designated Hitter position. The Red Sox appear to be the best fit for Ortiz, although it wouldn't be surprising to see teams like the Angels or Blue Jays show interest. He's certainly a powerful bat that improves any line-up, and though his age is a minor concern, speed and defense have never been factors of his game, so he is about as oblivious to the effects as any player.
Two quality, young center-fielders are also likely to be popular names on the tongues of fans, as the speedy Michael Bourn and toolsy B.J. Upton will both be seeking new contracts and likely new homes this winter. Bourn enjoyed a spectacular season with the Braves, filling a big void as their lead-off hitter, and it is likely they will be keen to hold on to him for a few more years. B.J. Upton's time in Tampa Bay appears to finally have ended, and as far as upside goes, Upton could be an intriguing option, as his combination of speed, power and excellent defense make him a very attractive option for the top of a line-up card. I expect the Phillies to be interested in both players, with their center-field now vacant after the departure of Victorino.
On the mound, the pitching gets thin after Zack Greinke with the exception of Kyle Lohse. The 33 year old right-hander enjoyed the best year of his career in 2012 with the Cardinals, leading the NL in ERA for much of the season and ending up as one of the front-runners for the Cy Young award. His command has been impeccable, and for the team that ends up acquiring him, there should be a good few years of ace-quality pitching from Lohse. If Zack Greinke signs early, expect the price of Lohse to increase significantly as he becomes the best available free-agent arm, although at the moment teams may be looking for a bargain as the big-spenders hold out in the hope of getting Greinke.
My free-agent predictions
Josh Hamilton - Rangers (although if they don't resign him then Yankees)
Zack Greinke - Angels
David Ortiz - Red Sox
Mike Napoli - Marlins (although the Nationals would make sense in my opinion)
Kyle Lohse - Blue Jays
BJ Upton - Phillies
Michael Bourn - Braves
Delmon Young - Twins
Ichiro - Yankees
Nick Swisher - Pirates
Ryan Dempster - Orioles
Adam LaRoche - Nationals
Anibal Sanchez - Tigers
Don't feel confident about any of them though...
Unlike last year, the number of 'big name' free agents is thin, with Josh Hamilton and Zack Greinke heading the respective hitting and pitching classes. Other big names include David Ortiz, Mike Napoli, Kyle Lohse, B.J. Upton, Michael Bourn, Delmon Young, Ichiro, Nick Swisher, Ryan Dempster, Adam LaRoche and Anibal Sanchez. As always there will be a number of trade rumours swirling too, not least around Arizona's young outfielder Justin Upton.
In terms of teams with money to spend, the Boston Red Sox have a huge amount of payroll free and several spots in a line-up to fill, so they may be active this winter. The Yankees are always looking to upgrade their roster, the Phillies will be active and you can expect both LA teams to try and build upon a high-spending 2012.
Josh Hamilton is perhaps the most intriguing free agent on the market. Aged 31, he's likely on the downward slope of his career, but as he proved in 2012 he still has plenty of pop in his bat. Off the field issues will always plague him, with his career almost over before it began due to alcohol and drug problems (see my blog post from a couple of years ago). Injuries are almost a guarantee with Hamilton too, and with his twilight years approaching, teams will be anxious that he spends more time on the field than off it. He'll likely command the highest price of all free agents too, but with good reason: in terms of raw upside there are few in baseball who can match him. His incredible power is simply unmatched, and in any ball-park he should be a lock for 30+ home runs as long as he garners 500 plate appearances. His fielding is much improved too, and he offers a good glove at any OF position, although at this stage in his career LF seems the most likely destination. I think any team would be foolish to offer him more than 3 or 4 years considering all of the question marks, but it wouldn't surprise me to see someone like the Yankees make a big money move.
Zack Greinke is another interesting name to watch during free agency. After a trade from the Brewers at the deadline this year, he was superb for the Angels in the second half and secured himself a lot of interest in the off-season. Off all the pitchers in free agency, Greinke is really the only 'ace' available, as he offers the possibility of 15-20 wins and 200 strike-outs for the next 5 seasons. Considering his fantastic half-season with them, I expect the Angels to do as much as they can to secure his services for another 3 or 4 years, but among others the Boston Red Sox are likely to be interested in him.
David Ortiz is an intriguing free agent should he hit the market. It was expected that the Red Sox would offer him another contract after two 1-year stints, but with nothing concrete yet, Ortiz may test the waters. Unlike most free agents, Ortiz is really restricted to the American League, as his services are really only useful from the Designated Hitter position. The Red Sox appear to be the best fit for Ortiz, although it wouldn't be surprising to see teams like the Angels or Blue Jays show interest. He's certainly a powerful bat that improves any line-up, and though his age is a minor concern, speed and defense have never been factors of his game, so he is about as oblivious to the effects as any player.
Two quality, young center-fielders are also likely to be popular names on the tongues of fans, as the speedy Michael Bourn and toolsy B.J. Upton will both be seeking new contracts and likely new homes this winter. Bourn enjoyed a spectacular season with the Braves, filling a big void as their lead-off hitter, and it is likely they will be keen to hold on to him for a few more years. B.J. Upton's time in Tampa Bay appears to finally have ended, and as far as upside goes, Upton could be an intriguing option, as his combination of speed, power and excellent defense make him a very attractive option for the top of a line-up card. I expect the Phillies to be interested in both players, with their center-field now vacant after the departure of Victorino.
On the mound, the pitching gets thin after Zack Greinke with the exception of Kyle Lohse. The 33 year old right-hander enjoyed the best year of his career in 2012 with the Cardinals, leading the NL in ERA for much of the season and ending up as one of the front-runners for the Cy Young award. His command has been impeccable, and for the team that ends up acquiring him, there should be a good few years of ace-quality pitching from Lohse. If Zack Greinke signs early, expect the price of Lohse to increase significantly as he becomes the best available free-agent arm, although at the moment teams may be looking for a bargain as the big-spenders hold out in the hope of getting Greinke.
My free-agent predictions
Josh Hamilton - Rangers (although if they don't resign him then Yankees)
Zack Greinke - Angels
David Ortiz - Red Sox
Mike Napoli - Marlins (although the Nationals would make sense in my opinion)
Kyle Lohse - Blue Jays
BJ Upton - Phillies
Michael Bourn - Braves
Delmon Young - Twins
Ichiro - Yankees
Nick Swisher - Pirates
Ryan Dempster - Orioles
Adam LaRoche - Nationals
Anibal Sanchez - Tigers
Don't feel confident about any of them though...
SF Giants: The making of champions
Just 2 years after clinching a remarkable World Series championship in Arlington, the Giants returned to the biggest stage in baseball and won it all again, crushing the hapless Tigers 4-0 in what turned out to be an underwhelming finale. As in 2010, the Giants were given few thoughts at the start of the season, and start of the post-season, but they continued to show that it is not big names and lusty hitting that wins rings...
In the eyes of many, the lack of a potent line-up would always restrict the win likelihood for a team endowed with strong starting pitching. When Tim Lincecum contrived to suffer the worst season of his professional career, a repeat of 2011 looked all too likely, when run support was a constant problem for a feeble hitting line-up in a cavernous ballpark. However, despite the struggling ways of Lincecum and inconsistent pitching of veteran left-hander Barry Zito, the rotation remained one of the best in the Major Leagues. Ace Matt Cain continued his meteoric rise in the NL, becoming one of the best starters in baseball, as highlighted by his perfect game against the Astros. Young left-hander Madison Bumgarner continued his stellar career so far with a string of big performances whilst veteran rightie Ryan Vogelsong built on a strong 2011 to show that he had really turned his career around and become one of the most underrated players in baseball.
On the offensive side of the diamond, there were still considerable deficiencies. The remarkable comeback of Buster Posey from a harrowing injury suffered at the plate last season was made more astonishing by an MVP calibre performance with the bat, after a stunning 2nd half of the season propelled him to a batting title. Young third baseman Pablo Sandoval continued to prove that when he's hot, he's one of the best pure hitters in baseball, but plate discipline and defensive issues always held him back. Young first baseman Brandon Belt finally got a full season to himself in the heart of the Giants order and after a slow start, he turned it around to become one of the more consistent players in the line-up. The mid-season acquisitions of Hunter Pence and Marco Scutaro proved pivotal, as the latter in particular had a sublime second half and post-season to become one of the first names on the team-sheet.
However, the real strengths of the team lay in defence and bullpen. Buster Posey was immaculate behind the plate despite worries he wouldn't be able to withstand the gruelling demands of a full season. Brandon Belt put in a gold-glove calibre show at 1st base, Marco Scutaro was excellent at second and Brandon Crawford was simply sublime at shortstop. The outfield was strong, led by superb center-fielder Angel Pagan who made the cavernous AT&T outfield his own. Although defense tends to be a stat that is easily overlooked on a game-to-game or series-to-series basis, the gulf in quality between the Giants and Tigers defense was evident in the World Series, when Giants infielders continued to rob the slow Tigers line-up. Out of the 'pen, Sergio Romo was simply unhittable all season in place of the injured Brian Wilson, and veterans like Jeremy Affeldt and Sergio Casilla combined with the sublime decision by Bruce Bochy to put Tim Lincecum in the bullpen for the playoffs to make an extremely tough bullpen to hit.
Once again, the Giants were able to prove that 120 million dollar players do not make a team. Excellent starting pitching, a shutdown bullpen, fantastic fielding and enough hitting can get the job done consistently, and when it comes to things like 'intangibles', the Giants seem to have them in excess. Not to mention the fact that AT&T Park is one of the most beautiful sports venues in the world.
In the eyes of many, the lack of a potent line-up would always restrict the win likelihood for a team endowed with strong starting pitching. When Tim Lincecum contrived to suffer the worst season of his professional career, a repeat of 2011 looked all too likely, when run support was a constant problem for a feeble hitting line-up in a cavernous ballpark. However, despite the struggling ways of Lincecum and inconsistent pitching of veteran left-hander Barry Zito, the rotation remained one of the best in the Major Leagues. Ace Matt Cain continued his meteoric rise in the NL, becoming one of the best starters in baseball, as highlighted by his perfect game against the Astros. Young left-hander Madison Bumgarner continued his stellar career so far with a string of big performances whilst veteran rightie Ryan Vogelsong built on a strong 2011 to show that he had really turned his career around and become one of the most underrated players in baseball.
On the offensive side of the diamond, there were still considerable deficiencies. The remarkable comeback of Buster Posey from a harrowing injury suffered at the plate last season was made more astonishing by an MVP calibre performance with the bat, after a stunning 2nd half of the season propelled him to a batting title. Young third baseman Pablo Sandoval continued to prove that when he's hot, he's one of the best pure hitters in baseball, but plate discipline and defensive issues always held him back. Young first baseman Brandon Belt finally got a full season to himself in the heart of the Giants order and after a slow start, he turned it around to become one of the more consistent players in the line-up. The mid-season acquisitions of Hunter Pence and Marco Scutaro proved pivotal, as the latter in particular had a sublime second half and post-season to become one of the first names on the team-sheet.
However, the real strengths of the team lay in defence and bullpen. Buster Posey was immaculate behind the plate despite worries he wouldn't be able to withstand the gruelling demands of a full season. Brandon Belt put in a gold-glove calibre show at 1st base, Marco Scutaro was excellent at second and Brandon Crawford was simply sublime at shortstop. The outfield was strong, led by superb center-fielder Angel Pagan who made the cavernous AT&T outfield his own. Although defense tends to be a stat that is easily overlooked on a game-to-game or series-to-series basis, the gulf in quality between the Giants and Tigers defense was evident in the World Series, when Giants infielders continued to rob the slow Tigers line-up. Out of the 'pen, Sergio Romo was simply unhittable all season in place of the injured Brian Wilson, and veterans like Jeremy Affeldt and Sergio Casilla combined with the sublime decision by Bruce Bochy to put Tim Lincecum in the bullpen for the playoffs to make an extremely tough bullpen to hit.
Once again, the Giants were able to prove that 120 million dollar players do not make a team. Excellent starting pitching, a shutdown bullpen, fantastic fielding and enough hitting can get the job done consistently, and when it comes to things like 'intangibles', the Giants seem to have them in excess. Not to mention the fact that AT&T Park is one of the most beautiful sports venues in the world.
Saturday 20 October 2012
LCS Breakdown
A week or so since my last post, and it's time for me to update on what is going on in the League Championship Series'. In the AL side of the draw, it was a very one-sided affair, with the Detroit starting pitching blowing away tame Yankee slugging on their way to a 4-0 sweep and a World Series berth. On the National League side, the Cards moved into cruise control after a big victory against Tim Lincecum, but an astonishing game 5 performance from Barry Zito has once again given San Francisco new life.
The Yankees-Tigers series was expected to be a close one, but in the end it was embarrassingly one-sided. A strong game one performance from Doug Fister appeared to have sealed an early series lead for Detroit before Valverde blew the 9th inning lead, giving up 2 run home-runs to Ichiro and late-inning hero Raul Ibanez. However, Delmon Young's 12th inning go-ahead double put the Tigers ahead for good. Game two followed a similar plot-line, but with no 9th inning Detroit implosion. Anibal Sanchez cruised through 7 scoreless innings and Phil Coke did the rest despite a superb 11 strike-out performance from Hiroki Kuroda. The Yanks needed to win game 3, and got no easy break going up against likely Cy-Young winner Justin Verlander, who continued his remarkable post-season with 8.1 innings of one-run pitching as Phil Coke nailed down another save. In the final game, the Yankees hitting woes continued, as Max Scherzer gave 6 strong innings and the bullpen did the rest on their way to a brutal 4 game sweep.
The story of the series was the Yankees hitting - Cano struggled his way to one of the worst post-season slumps in Yankee history, Granderson struck out in more than half his at-bats, Nick Swisher continued his horrible drought with runners in scoring position and Alex Rodriguez's well documented struggles led to his benching for the final two games of the series. Only Ichiro and Ibanez showed that they could put together any sort of good hitting at the plate, but I think the emphasis is being placed way too much on the Yankees' struggles than on the excellence of the Tigers pitching. The dominance of Verlander is no surprise, but the superb work from Fister, Sanchez and Scherzer were the defining performances from the series, as the Yankees could never adapt. As hot as they are now, it's hard to bet against them going into the World Series.
On the other side of the draw, the Giants and Cardinals started off a big NLCS series, with both teams proving in the divisional series that they are comeback kings. In game 1 the Cardinal bats got to Bumgarner early, and the bullpen held onto the lead to give them a big early advantage. A superb pitching performance from Ryan Vogelsong in game 2 proved the difference as the Giants tied up the series in a game that was marred by a hard slide from Matt Holliday at 2nd base that roughed up Marco Scutaro and gave the series an extra edge. Game 3 was huge in terms of impact on the series, and it was the Cards that came out on top after a superb performance from Matt Lohse and a clutch 2 run homer from bench player Matt Carpenter. Trying to tie up the series was Tim Lincecum for the Giants, who had seemingly put a disastrous regular season behind him after a number of superb bullpen pitching performances. However, he got beat up by the Cardinals as Adam Wainwright cruised to a game 4 victory and a commanding 3-1 series lead. The series seemed to be over with much-maligned left-hander Barry Zito on the mound the next day...
Having pounded left-handed pitching during the regular season and in the post-season, Zito was generally seen as a pitcher who would be lucky to make it through 4 innings. However, the soft-throwing 33 year old came up with the performance of his career, baffling and fooling the Cardinals with 7.2 scoreless innings in which he showed that location will always trump power. His astonishing performance allowed the Giants bats to heat up, and with the series now at 3-2 heading back to San Francisco, the pressure is on the Cardinals to perform in game 6 or be faced with a supremely confident and crowd-backed Giants side in game 7. This looks certain to be yet another superb series, and with their recent history for post-season heroics, you wouldn't want to put your money against St Louis, no matter how deep a hole they find themselves in...
The Yankees-Tigers series was expected to be a close one, but in the end it was embarrassingly one-sided. A strong game one performance from Doug Fister appeared to have sealed an early series lead for Detroit before Valverde blew the 9th inning lead, giving up 2 run home-runs to Ichiro and late-inning hero Raul Ibanez. However, Delmon Young's 12th inning go-ahead double put the Tigers ahead for good. Game two followed a similar plot-line, but with no 9th inning Detroit implosion. Anibal Sanchez cruised through 7 scoreless innings and Phil Coke did the rest despite a superb 11 strike-out performance from Hiroki Kuroda. The Yanks needed to win game 3, and got no easy break going up against likely Cy-Young winner Justin Verlander, who continued his remarkable post-season with 8.1 innings of one-run pitching as Phil Coke nailed down another save. In the final game, the Yankees hitting woes continued, as Max Scherzer gave 6 strong innings and the bullpen did the rest on their way to a brutal 4 game sweep.
The story of the series was the Yankees hitting - Cano struggled his way to one of the worst post-season slumps in Yankee history, Granderson struck out in more than half his at-bats, Nick Swisher continued his horrible drought with runners in scoring position and Alex Rodriguez's well documented struggles led to his benching for the final two games of the series. Only Ichiro and Ibanez showed that they could put together any sort of good hitting at the plate, but I think the emphasis is being placed way too much on the Yankees' struggles than on the excellence of the Tigers pitching. The dominance of Verlander is no surprise, but the superb work from Fister, Sanchez and Scherzer were the defining performances from the series, as the Yankees could never adapt. As hot as they are now, it's hard to bet against them going into the World Series.
On the other side of the draw, the Giants and Cardinals started off a big NLCS series, with both teams proving in the divisional series that they are comeback kings. In game 1 the Cardinal bats got to Bumgarner early, and the bullpen held onto the lead to give them a big early advantage. A superb pitching performance from Ryan Vogelsong in game 2 proved the difference as the Giants tied up the series in a game that was marred by a hard slide from Matt Holliday at 2nd base that roughed up Marco Scutaro and gave the series an extra edge. Game 3 was huge in terms of impact on the series, and it was the Cards that came out on top after a superb performance from Matt Lohse and a clutch 2 run homer from bench player Matt Carpenter. Trying to tie up the series was Tim Lincecum for the Giants, who had seemingly put a disastrous regular season behind him after a number of superb bullpen pitching performances. However, he got beat up by the Cardinals as Adam Wainwright cruised to a game 4 victory and a commanding 3-1 series lead. The series seemed to be over with much-maligned left-hander Barry Zito on the mound the next day...
Having pounded left-handed pitching during the regular season and in the post-season, Zito was generally seen as a pitcher who would be lucky to make it through 4 innings. However, the soft-throwing 33 year old came up with the performance of his career, baffling and fooling the Cardinals with 7.2 scoreless innings in which he showed that location will always trump power. His astonishing performance allowed the Giants bats to heat up, and with the series now at 3-2 heading back to San Francisco, the pressure is on the Cardinals to perform in game 6 or be faced with a supremely confident and crowd-backed Giants side in game 7. This looks certain to be yet another superb series, and with their recent history for post-season heroics, you wouldn't want to put your money against St Louis, no matter how deep a hole they find themselves in...
Friday 12 October 2012
5 Things We've Learnt from the Divisional Series
Yup, another list. A simply unbelievable October of baseball so far, and every game that could have been played in the Divisional Series' will be played. We will get 20 games of baseball, and what an 18 games they have been so far. The Giants launched probably the greatest NLDS comeback since it was incepted, as the Reds were beat on 3 consecutive days at home for the first time all year. They were led, as always, by the unbelievable Buster Posey, who's grand slam and throwing out of Bruce at 3rd base were two of the biggest plays of the game. Meanwhile, the A's pitted momentum, cinderella-story and the will of a nation against Verlander. And Verlander dominated them. The O's won another extra-inning game to pull their series back to 2-2, and Jayson Werth capped off a 13 pitch, 9th inning at-bat with a walk-off homer.
So, without further ado - here's what we've learnt:
1. Baseball is amazing
Seriously. No other sport provides the same day-to-day drama, the knowledge that at any time a record could be broken, a play could do something so unbelievable it knocks the breath out of you. J.J. Hardy busting out of a slump to silence the Bronx. Jayson Werth cranking a mammoth walk off home-run. Buster Posey turning a 94 mph fastball around and into the upper deck in left field for a grand slam. Justin Verlander taking apart one of the most potent AL line-ups like he was playing a video game. What a sport.
2. Justin Verlander is the best pitcher we will ever see
'Justin Verlander can't pitch in the post-season'. 'He can't handle high-pressure games'. 'He only ever does well against weak line-ups'. Well guess what, in the biggest game of the season for the Tigers, Verlander threw a complete-game, 4 hit, 11 strike-out shutout of the Athletics in front of one of the best crowds in the Major Leagues, never mind millions of baying fans worldwide on tv. His fastball wasn't touching 100. But combined with a knee-buckling curve, off the table change-up and astonishing location, he simply dismantled the Athletics line-up. There is no-one better in the game right now, and I challenge whether we will see anyone with his kind of repertoire and ability in the next 50 years.
3. Home field advantage means nothing
If the Cardinals or Orioles clinch their respective spots in the championship series' tonight, it would match the post-season record of 5 road 'clinchers'. If they both win it would break it, before the CS and WS. Maybe the one-off 2-3 format is the reason - the team with the best record plays 2 games on the road before playing 3 on the trot back at home, but maybe teams have just found a way to negate home field advantage. Crowds are louder than ever before, but teams just aren't scared or intimidated by them.
4. Buster Posey is the National League MVP
There are two reasons for this. One is pure brilliance and another is pure wrong. There appear to be 4 possible candidates for the NL MVP. The two that bear comparison are Buster Posey and Yadier Molina. Molina has long been one of the most underrated catchers in the Major League. In fact, I think he is criminally underrated - the most underrated hitter in the entire majors. However, I think this inability to recognise his offensive prowess is offset by the fact that his defense is overrated. Hear me out now. He is the best defensive catcher in the league - I'm not denying that. But the extent to which he is the best defensive catcher is debatable. His regular season fielding percentage of .997 was second only to Brian McCann who caught 170 less innings. He allowed just 38 steals and threw out an incredible 35 runners. Posey was worse - but not a lot. He allowed way more steals (87) although he threw out 38 runners and his fielding percentage was 6 ticks worse despite allowing just 2 passed balls. Not all of these stats are of course attributable to the catcher, things like steals can be put on pitchers too. With the bat, Posey's output has been greater - again, not as much as people like to think. He has a greater average, runs, RBI and home run number, but not so much that it becomes a non-contest. Both players are extremely comparable, but Posey wins in my opinion because offensive out-put is generally more valuable and easier to put down to one player and because he was for most of the season the only hitter in the Giants line-up.
The depressing part of this, is that really Ryan Braun had the best season in the National League. His .319 average was just .17 worse than Posey and 8 ticks worse than McCutchen. He stole 30 bases, being caught just 7 times - McCutchen (who is generally considered a speedier player) stole just 20 and was thrown out 12 times. Molina stole a surprising amount for a catcher but obviously not on the level Braun did. In terms of counting stats, Braun's incredible 41 homers led the National League despite a lack of line-up protection. His 112 RBI fell a close 2nd to Chase Headley but his .595 slugging percentage fell second just to Giancarlo Stanton. His fielding isn't terrific, but it isn't lousy either. On the basis of production, and worth to his side, Braun should have serious consideration for MVP but he won't, because the writers who vote for the award will still be sore about his drug scandal from last season - despite the fact that it has had no influence over this, arguably more terrific, season.
5. Ace > Depth
Much was made of the decision by the Washington Nationals to cut their phenomenon Stephen Strasburg's season short despite the fact he was one of the main reasons they were going to the play-offs for the first time in the young team's history. One of the key points made in defence of Mike Rizzo was that Washington has excellent pitching depth. This is undeniable - Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, Edwin Jackson and Ross Detwiler are all capable starters. But the divisional series' have shown that an ace is much greater than depth. The obvious example is Justin Verlander - he essentially carried his team into the ALCS with his two starts. On the flip side, Oakland had no obvious ace - Jarrod Parker is a good and highly talented young pitcher, but not someone you would want to entrust in a must-win game. The Giants rode 6 strong innings from potential Cy Young candidate Matt Cain to victory, as the Reds were forced to rue what could have been with their ace (Johnny Cueto) sidelined. Tonight's pitching match-up between Sabathia and Hammel seems to be a no-brainer. When it comes to winner-takes-all 5 or 7 game series, an ace is absolutely crucial. If you can get two wins from your key starter, then it makes the job incredibly simple for the other games - just win 2 of the other 5. That's why, despite all their struggles during the regular season, you could never count the Tigers out.
So, without further ado - here's what we've learnt:
1. Baseball is amazing
Seriously. No other sport provides the same day-to-day drama, the knowledge that at any time a record could be broken, a play could do something so unbelievable it knocks the breath out of you. J.J. Hardy busting out of a slump to silence the Bronx. Jayson Werth cranking a mammoth walk off home-run. Buster Posey turning a 94 mph fastball around and into the upper deck in left field for a grand slam. Justin Verlander taking apart one of the most potent AL line-ups like he was playing a video game. What a sport.
2. Justin Verlander is the best pitcher we will ever see
'Justin Verlander can't pitch in the post-season'. 'He can't handle high-pressure games'. 'He only ever does well against weak line-ups'. Well guess what, in the biggest game of the season for the Tigers, Verlander threw a complete-game, 4 hit, 11 strike-out shutout of the Athletics in front of one of the best crowds in the Major Leagues, never mind millions of baying fans worldwide on tv. His fastball wasn't touching 100. But combined with a knee-buckling curve, off the table change-up and astonishing location, he simply dismantled the Athletics line-up. There is no-one better in the game right now, and I challenge whether we will see anyone with his kind of repertoire and ability in the next 50 years.
3. Home field advantage means nothing
If the Cardinals or Orioles clinch their respective spots in the championship series' tonight, it would match the post-season record of 5 road 'clinchers'. If they both win it would break it, before the CS and WS. Maybe the one-off 2-3 format is the reason - the team with the best record plays 2 games on the road before playing 3 on the trot back at home, but maybe teams have just found a way to negate home field advantage. Crowds are louder than ever before, but teams just aren't scared or intimidated by them.
4. Buster Posey is the National League MVP
There are two reasons for this. One is pure brilliance and another is pure wrong. There appear to be 4 possible candidates for the NL MVP. The two that bear comparison are Buster Posey and Yadier Molina. Molina has long been one of the most underrated catchers in the Major League. In fact, I think he is criminally underrated - the most underrated hitter in the entire majors. However, I think this inability to recognise his offensive prowess is offset by the fact that his defense is overrated. Hear me out now. He is the best defensive catcher in the league - I'm not denying that. But the extent to which he is the best defensive catcher is debatable. His regular season fielding percentage of .997 was second only to Brian McCann who caught 170 less innings. He allowed just 38 steals and threw out an incredible 35 runners. Posey was worse - but not a lot. He allowed way more steals (87) although he threw out 38 runners and his fielding percentage was 6 ticks worse despite allowing just 2 passed balls. Not all of these stats are of course attributable to the catcher, things like steals can be put on pitchers too. With the bat, Posey's output has been greater - again, not as much as people like to think. He has a greater average, runs, RBI and home run number, but not so much that it becomes a non-contest. Both players are extremely comparable, but Posey wins in my opinion because offensive out-put is generally more valuable and easier to put down to one player and because he was for most of the season the only hitter in the Giants line-up.
The depressing part of this, is that really Ryan Braun had the best season in the National League. His .319 average was just .17 worse than Posey and 8 ticks worse than McCutchen. He stole 30 bases, being caught just 7 times - McCutchen (who is generally considered a speedier player) stole just 20 and was thrown out 12 times. Molina stole a surprising amount for a catcher but obviously not on the level Braun did. In terms of counting stats, Braun's incredible 41 homers led the National League despite a lack of line-up protection. His 112 RBI fell a close 2nd to Chase Headley but his .595 slugging percentage fell second just to Giancarlo Stanton. His fielding isn't terrific, but it isn't lousy either. On the basis of production, and worth to his side, Braun should have serious consideration for MVP but he won't, because the writers who vote for the award will still be sore about his drug scandal from last season - despite the fact that it has had no influence over this, arguably more terrific, season.
5. Ace > Depth
Much was made of the decision by the Washington Nationals to cut their phenomenon Stephen Strasburg's season short despite the fact he was one of the main reasons they were going to the play-offs for the first time in the young team's history. One of the key points made in defence of Mike Rizzo was that Washington has excellent pitching depth. This is undeniable - Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, Edwin Jackson and Ross Detwiler are all capable starters. But the divisional series' have shown that an ace is much greater than depth. The obvious example is Justin Verlander - he essentially carried his team into the ALCS with his two starts. On the flip side, Oakland had no obvious ace - Jarrod Parker is a good and highly talented young pitcher, but not someone you would want to entrust in a must-win game. The Giants rode 6 strong innings from potential Cy Young candidate Matt Cain to victory, as the Reds were forced to rue what could have been with their ace (Johnny Cueto) sidelined. Tonight's pitching match-up between Sabathia and Hammel seems to be a no-brainer. When it comes to winner-takes-all 5 or 7 game series, an ace is absolutely crucial. If you can get two wins from your key starter, then it makes the job incredibly simple for the other games - just win 2 of the other 5. That's why, despite all their struggles during the regular season, you could never count the Tigers out.
Saturday 6 October 2012
NLDS October 6
Well, that was a wild first year for the new wildcard system. The Braves finally lost a game with Medlen on the mound, but it was not without its controversy. A call went their way early on, when David Ross was granted a very late time-out on a pitch he went on to strike out on. The pitch was thrown again and Ross plunked it into the left field seats. But the biggest call came in the 8th inning, when with men on 1st and 2nd, rookie Andrelton Simmons hit a shallow pop-up into left field. With the short-stop Kozma back-pedalling and left-fielder Holliday hurrying in, there was some confusion which ended with them leaving it for each other and allowing the Braves to load the bases. However, a second before the ball had hit the turf, left-field umpire Sam Holbrook had called on the infield fly rule, meaning that the batter was called out. The call was not a good one, the catch was clearly anything but regulation. However, the response by the Braves fans, who threw bottles and other debris onto the pitch, was undignified. The Cardinals went on to close the game out, although it was being played under protest.
The other game was less controversial, but no less surprising. Leftie Joe Saunders gave up just one run over 5.1 innings and the shut-down Orioles 'pen did the rest to leave me 0-2 from my picks so far. Soon to be free-agent Josh Hamilton received boos from the Texas faithful after striking out in his final at-bat, and the final 14 days of the season proved to be very forgetful indeed for the Rangers who perhaps got complacent atop the AL West.
But there's no rest in October, and we have the first games of the NLDS taking place today. In the first game we have a juicy match-up between the surprise AL West winners Oakland and the resurgent AL Central victors Tigers. The Tigers will send their ace, Justin Verlander, out to the mound to face off against one of the Oakland rookies - Jarrod Parker. The Oakland line-up has a tendency to strike out a lot, so Verlander may rack up some K's, but his post-season record in his career so far does not match up to his stellar regular season record. Parker has been the most reliable of Oakland's rookie rotation so far this season, but he will have his work cut out if he wants to shut down this red hot Detroit offense powered by triple-crown winner Miguel Cabrera. The heralded A's power will also be limited by the spacious outfield of Comerica Park, so they may have to revert to more small-ball and base stealing if they want to score runs on Verlander.
My prediction: 5-3 Detroit
On the National League side of the draw, two NL heavy-weights will do battle in the late game. The Giants quietly put together an excellent season, with Cain, Bumgarner and Vogelsong making up for Lincecum's misgivings and Buster Posey compiling an MVP calibre season with the second half omission of Melky Cabrera. It will be the 28 year old right-hander on the mound for the Giants, who put together the best campaign of his career with 16 wins, a 2.79 ERA and 193 punch-outs as well as a perfecto back in June. However, he will have to face off against another Cy-Young candidate in the Reds break-out ace Johnny Cueto. The 26 year old right-hander has been superb for the Cincinatti side this year, putting together 19 wins and a 2.78 ERA despite pitching half his games in the most hitter-friendly park in the National League. Both line-ups are good without being destructive, and in the cavernous AT&T park this could easily turn into a fascinating pitchers duel. I'll give the nod to the Reds though, because their hitting is slightly stronger and their bull-pen can match-up to that of the Giants. Should be fascinating game though.
My prediction: 2-1 Cincinatti
The other game was less controversial, but no less surprising. Leftie Joe Saunders gave up just one run over 5.1 innings and the shut-down Orioles 'pen did the rest to leave me 0-2 from my picks so far. Soon to be free-agent Josh Hamilton received boos from the Texas faithful after striking out in his final at-bat, and the final 14 days of the season proved to be very forgetful indeed for the Rangers who perhaps got complacent atop the AL West.
But there's no rest in October, and we have the first games of the NLDS taking place today. In the first game we have a juicy match-up between the surprise AL West winners Oakland and the resurgent AL Central victors Tigers. The Tigers will send their ace, Justin Verlander, out to the mound to face off against one of the Oakland rookies - Jarrod Parker. The Oakland line-up has a tendency to strike out a lot, so Verlander may rack up some K's, but his post-season record in his career so far does not match up to his stellar regular season record. Parker has been the most reliable of Oakland's rookie rotation so far this season, but he will have his work cut out if he wants to shut down this red hot Detroit offense powered by triple-crown winner Miguel Cabrera. The heralded A's power will also be limited by the spacious outfield of Comerica Park, so they may have to revert to more small-ball and base stealing if they want to score runs on Verlander.
My prediction: 5-3 Detroit
On the National League side of the draw, two NL heavy-weights will do battle in the late game. The Giants quietly put together an excellent season, with Cain, Bumgarner and Vogelsong making up for Lincecum's misgivings and Buster Posey compiling an MVP calibre season with the second half omission of Melky Cabrera. It will be the 28 year old right-hander on the mound for the Giants, who put together the best campaign of his career with 16 wins, a 2.79 ERA and 193 punch-outs as well as a perfecto back in June. However, he will have to face off against another Cy-Young candidate in the Reds break-out ace Johnny Cueto. The 26 year old right-hander has been superb for the Cincinatti side this year, putting together 19 wins and a 2.78 ERA despite pitching half his games in the most hitter-friendly park in the National League. Both line-ups are good without being destructive, and in the cavernous AT&T park this could easily turn into a fascinating pitchers duel. I'll give the nod to the Reds though, because their hitting is slightly stronger and their bull-pen can match-up to that of the Giants. Should be fascinating game though.
My prediction: 2-1 Cincinatti
Thursday 4 October 2012
Wildcard Previews
Though it feels like Mike Trout's season debut was last week, and that there's surely still time for the Orioles and A's to finally prove they're the Orioles and A's, the season is over. Another crazy season full of twists and turns, with the final day proving once again that if you don't play hard for 162 games, you may as well not bother. Not quite the drama and excitement of 2011's Game 162, but the Athletics astonishing comeback culminating in an AL West crown was a deserving prize for a simply astonishing season. The Yankees secured yet another AL East crown, and the enticing AL Wildcard play-off game was decided - Texas v Baltimore. Throughout this post-season I will attempt to post regularly with previews, write-ups and opinion, and if there's any kind of interest I may even try live-blogging a game...
So, onto the games. The first season with the new wildcard system looks like being a gripping one, with the one game 'winner-takes-all' mentality sure to be crushing for teams who will have their whole season potentially decided by a bad hop or missed call at first base. In the American league, the Rangers will find themselves playing in a game they would never have thought they would be competing in. Having dominated the AL West for 161 games of the year, they found themselves pipped to the post and forced to play an extra game to make their way into the play-off bracket once again. They will find themselves up against the red-hot Baltimore Orioles led by ex-Ranger Chris Davis who has been on a ridiculous homer-streak over the last week. Buck Showalter has taught his team to treat every game like a play-off, but there is no doubt that they will bring extreme intensity to Friday's match-up, and the Rangers would be foolish to take them lightly.
The Pitching Match-Up
The Rangers will have rookie sensation Yu Darvish taking to the hill for their critical game against a team he has not yet faced in his Major League career. After battling control issues for the first half of the season, Darvish has reigned in his walk rate and with it he has seen a marked improvement in his production. The effects of fatigue seemed to kick-in late in the season, and his ERA in fact is higher post all-star (4.26) than before (3.59). Although his sometimes erratic performances make him a risky starter, if anyone on the team could be called an ace it would have to be Darvish thanks to his astonishing strikeout rates. If the Orioles are patient then they have a chance to get Darvish out early, but if he has his control he could rack up the strikeouts and earn his team a massive W...
As for the Orioles, they will be turning to veteran left-hander Joe Saunders. He has plenty of experience against Texas, but none of it particularly inspiring - he has a 6.48 ERA in 11 starts there. The Orioles' starting pitching is perhaps weaker than that of Texas, but in this game they will simply be looking for 5 or 6 strong innings before handing the game over to the shut-down bullpen. Johnson has gone 4-0 with a 2.11 ERA and has the advantage of never facing the Rangers. They have arguably the most potent line-up in baseball, so it may well end up being a matter of which side can score more runs.
My guess - Rangers win 6-2
On the National League side of the diamond, it is two familiar foes. After having their season ruined by a resurgent September from the St Louis Cardinals last season, the Braves will be back for vengeance. They will have a strong wave of public support on their side due to the popularity of Chipper Jones who is playing his final games in the Major Leagues. Backed by able hitting from young sluggers Freddie Freeman and Jason Heyward as well as speedster Michael Bourn, the Braves have been able to compile one of the best records in the NL. With a shutdown closer they will be tough to score against late on in games. However, St Louis have once again been silently good. Overshadowed by the Reds in the Central and without Albert Pujols, they have used timely hitting from players like Matt Holliday, Allen Craig and Carlos Beltran to fuel themselves once again into the World Series race, and as we know they can turn wildcard into ring very easily...
The Pitching Match-Up
The Braves will be sending arguably the most dominant pitcher in the game right now out to the mound for this critical game, with break-out star Kris Medlen getting the nod. Although he was originally supposed to be in the Braves 'pen as a reliever, his comeback from Tommy John surgery had proven successful and he got into the rotation in July. Since then, his rise has been meteoric, as he put together 40.1 innings without an earned. He is also part of a Major League record - the Braves have won 23 straight games that Medlen has started. Although his stuff isn't overpowering, his location and control is simply outstanding, and his change-up currently has a 'whiff' rate of 44% which is among the highest in the league for starting pitchers.
Facing a tough task for the Cardinals will be right-hander Kyle Lohse who has simply sparkled at the front of the rotation for the defending champions. Without veteran Chris Carpenter and a returning from surgery Chris Carpenter, there appeared to be a hole at the front of their rotation which Lohse has filled seamlessly. He has put together a Cy-Young calibre season, recording a 16-3 record and 2.86 ERA, quietly proving to be one of the best pitchers in the league. The Braves hitters have been struggling at the plate recently, and if anyone is going to be able to keep them stifled it will be the break-out young ace. I expect this to be a very low-scoring game, and critical things like errors and steals may prove decisive. Perhaps the biggest factor working for the Braves however is the mere fact that Medlen is on the mound - they will be hoping his astonishing 'win' streak will continue through October.
My guess - Braves win 2-1
So, there you have it. They should be a great couple of games (shame about the unsociable UK start times) and I don't think it would be an overstatement to say that the winner of either game could easily be viewed as a World Series favourite...
Thursday 20 September 2012
How it stands: Two weeks to go
Two weeks have passed since my last post, and two weeks are left (well, 13 days) in the MLB season. In most ways this is cause for concern - how can it have passed so quickly?! - but in every other way this is the best time of the season. The previous 150 games can be thrown away now. Either you're in contention or you're not, and if you are in contention, then every game has to be treated like a play-off game. As the Red Sox and Braves found out last season, there are 162 games for a reason. Even if you're on top after 161 it means nothing if you've fallen out of it after the next day.
Some teams can almost guarantee their spots in October baseball. The Nats can be pretty confident that they will have a favourable advantage going into their NLDS series, and the Braves, Giants and Rangers can all feel confident that their season won't last just 162 games. After that the waters become a little murkier. In the AL, the East and Central continue to be gripping. The Orioles refuse to quit, more recently winning a marathon 18 inning game that lasted well into the early hours before following that up with another sapping 11 inning victory. Their extra-inning and one-run records continue to be impeccable. However, the Yankees are doing what the Yankees do best - they are playing the spoiler role. As the O's try and continue their fairytale story, the Yanks keep grinding out wins keeping themselves at the forefront of the AL East picture. The Rays meanwhile have fallen out of contention. The return of Evan Longoria unable to mask the clear hitting deficiencies as Cy Young type seasons from David Price and Fernando Rodney appear to imminently become fruitless. In terms of schedules, the Orioles enjoy a reasonably easy final 13 games, with 6 against the Red Sox and 4 against the Blue Jays. The Yankees have a tough 3 game set against the Athletics, but finish the season against the Twins, Jays and Red Sox. Sweeps are going to be the key to the title.
In the Central, the twists and turns continue to take place. After the White Sox swept the Twins and the Tigers were only able to take two from the tribe, the Sox followed that up with a crucial victory over the Tigers on Monday. However, an unbelievable couple of days of hitting from MVP candidate Miguel Cabrera has given the Tigers new life, with the bogey-team Royals holding up the resurgent Sox. The Tigers still stand two games out in the Central, and a wildcard spot looks to be out of the question. But if the astonishing hitting of Cabrera can continue, the Tigers still have a chance in this division. The Tigers will also have the benefit of enjoying a cosy final week of the season against the Royals(2) and Twins whilst the White Sox will have tough series against the Angels and Rays as well as two sets with the Indians. Calling a winner in this division will be impossible.
In the West, the Rangers continue to set the pace but the Athletics continue to churn out victories. They remain just 4 games back in the hunt for the division title, and 3.5 games ahead of fellow division rivals Los Angeles Angels in the wildcard hunt. Their young rotation and resurgent hitting has showed no signs of slowing, and should the Rangers slip up over the last 10 games, the Athletics will have no problems with filling in at the top of the division. They won't have an easy time of it however, facing the Yankees, Rangers(2) and Mariners in their last 4 series. The Rangers will also have a tough few series, facing the Mariners, A's(2) and Angels, so neither side will have an easy finish to the season. The Angels continue to slide out of the play-off picture, although they are still clinging on to a wildcard hope by a thread. They will face the White Sox, Mariners(2) and Rangers and need to win at least 10 out of 12 if they want to reach the playoffs.
The NL wildcard picture is no clearer than it was two weeks ago. The Pirates have faltered and fallen out of contention but their spot has been taken by the flying Brewers, who have finally sorted out their bullpen issues and are riding another MVP-calibre season from Ryan Braun. They are just 2.5 games out of the wildcard race, and unlike the Cardinals have momentum behind them. The Cards are stalling, and with the Dodgers and Brewers breathing down their necks must put together a strong final 2 weeks. The Phillies and D-Backs both still have a sniff of the wildcard, but it looks like they'll need a good slice of fortune if they want to work their way into October baseball. The Cards have a cushy pair of series' against the Cubs and Astros, but finish the season against the Nats and Reds. They'll want to have breathing room going into those games. The Brewers have it the other way around. They face a tough 6 games against the Nats and Reds, but if they can take 4 of 6 they'll be confident going into the final 6 against the Astros and Padres. The Dodgers will also face the Reds, but follow that up with the Padres and Rockies before finishing up against the Giants. The D-Backs are perhaps best placed for a late run, with 6 games against the Rockies and 3 games against the Cubs sandwiching a 3 game series against the Giants.
It's set to be a fantastic finish to the season, and whichever teams do make the post-season will have earned their spot - you don't come out on top after 162 games unless you're a good side. Once you hit the play-offs it's anyone's game.
On an aside, I thought I'd string together my award winners as I currently think would be fair...
AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera
AL Cy Young: Fernando Rodney
AL Rookie of the Year: Mike Trout
AL Manager of the Year: Bob Melvin
NL MVP: Buster Posey
NL Cy Young: R.A. Dickey
NL Rookie of the Year: Bryce Harper
NL Manager of the Year: Davey Johnson
But there is still plenty of time for that to change. Feel free to disagree - I'd like to hear your thoughts!
Some teams can almost guarantee their spots in October baseball. The Nats can be pretty confident that they will have a favourable advantage going into their NLDS series, and the Braves, Giants and Rangers can all feel confident that their season won't last just 162 games. After that the waters become a little murkier. In the AL, the East and Central continue to be gripping. The Orioles refuse to quit, more recently winning a marathon 18 inning game that lasted well into the early hours before following that up with another sapping 11 inning victory. Their extra-inning and one-run records continue to be impeccable. However, the Yankees are doing what the Yankees do best - they are playing the spoiler role. As the O's try and continue their fairytale story, the Yanks keep grinding out wins keeping themselves at the forefront of the AL East picture. The Rays meanwhile have fallen out of contention. The return of Evan Longoria unable to mask the clear hitting deficiencies as Cy Young type seasons from David Price and Fernando Rodney appear to imminently become fruitless. In terms of schedules, the Orioles enjoy a reasonably easy final 13 games, with 6 against the Red Sox and 4 against the Blue Jays. The Yankees have a tough 3 game set against the Athletics, but finish the season against the Twins, Jays and Red Sox. Sweeps are going to be the key to the title.
In the Central, the twists and turns continue to take place. After the White Sox swept the Twins and the Tigers were only able to take two from the tribe, the Sox followed that up with a crucial victory over the Tigers on Monday. However, an unbelievable couple of days of hitting from MVP candidate Miguel Cabrera has given the Tigers new life, with the bogey-team Royals holding up the resurgent Sox. The Tigers still stand two games out in the Central, and a wildcard spot looks to be out of the question. But if the astonishing hitting of Cabrera can continue, the Tigers still have a chance in this division. The Tigers will also have the benefit of enjoying a cosy final week of the season against the Royals(2) and Twins whilst the White Sox will have tough series against the Angels and Rays as well as two sets with the Indians. Calling a winner in this division will be impossible.
In the West, the Rangers continue to set the pace but the Athletics continue to churn out victories. They remain just 4 games back in the hunt for the division title, and 3.5 games ahead of fellow division rivals Los Angeles Angels in the wildcard hunt. Their young rotation and resurgent hitting has showed no signs of slowing, and should the Rangers slip up over the last 10 games, the Athletics will have no problems with filling in at the top of the division. They won't have an easy time of it however, facing the Yankees, Rangers(2) and Mariners in their last 4 series. The Rangers will also have a tough few series, facing the Mariners, A's(2) and Angels, so neither side will have an easy finish to the season. The Angels continue to slide out of the play-off picture, although they are still clinging on to a wildcard hope by a thread. They will face the White Sox, Mariners(2) and Rangers and need to win at least 10 out of 12 if they want to reach the playoffs.
The NL wildcard picture is no clearer than it was two weeks ago. The Pirates have faltered and fallen out of contention but their spot has been taken by the flying Brewers, who have finally sorted out their bullpen issues and are riding another MVP-calibre season from Ryan Braun. They are just 2.5 games out of the wildcard race, and unlike the Cardinals have momentum behind them. The Cards are stalling, and with the Dodgers and Brewers breathing down their necks must put together a strong final 2 weeks. The Phillies and D-Backs both still have a sniff of the wildcard, but it looks like they'll need a good slice of fortune if they want to work their way into October baseball. The Cards have a cushy pair of series' against the Cubs and Astros, but finish the season against the Nats and Reds. They'll want to have breathing room going into those games. The Brewers have it the other way around. They face a tough 6 games against the Nats and Reds, but if they can take 4 of 6 they'll be confident going into the final 6 against the Astros and Padres. The Dodgers will also face the Reds, but follow that up with the Padres and Rockies before finishing up against the Giants. The D-Backs are perhaps best placed for a late run, with 6 games against the Rockies and 3 games against the Cubs sandwiching a 3 game series against the Giants.
It's set to be a fantastic finish to the season, and whichever teams do make the post-season will have earned their spot - you don't come out on top after 162 games unless you're a good side. Once you hit the play-offs it's anyone's game.
On an aside, I thought I'd string together my award winners as I currently think would be fair...
AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera
AL Cy Young: Fernando Rodney
AL Rookie of the Year: Mike Trout
AL Manager of the Year: Bob Melvin
NL MVP: Buster Posey
NL Cy Young: R.A. Dickey
NL Rookie of the Year: Bryce Harper
NL Manager of the Year: Davey Johnson
But there is still plenty of time for that to change. Feel free to disagree - I'd like to hear your thoughts!
Wednesday 5 September 2012
Breaking down the World Series contenders
So, with less than a month to go until post-season baseball is upon us, we have a good idea of who will and who won't be competing in three weeks time. There are some constants, with the Rangers, Yanks and Tigers all competing as expected. No-one would have expected the Nationals to sport the best record in baseball, the Athletics to be setting the wildcard pace or the Orioles to be pushing the Yankees into a fight for a post-season berth. In this post, I'll attempt to breakdown which teams are contenders and which teams are pretenders as far as vying for the elusive ring goes...
1. The Washington Nationals - 83-52
The story so far: Having already surpassed the franchise record for wins in a season, the sky is the limit for the multi-talented team in the nation's capital. Playing in the same division as the Phillies, Braves and revamped Marlins looked like being too tough a challenge to overcome for the Nats at the season's start, but they have been the most consistent team in the Majors to this point. The main reason is the super-consistent rotation. Strasburg has sparked, Gio Gonzalez sets the NL pace in wins and Jordan Zimmermann has continued his astonishing comeback from Tommy John surgery. Both Ross Detwiler and Edwin Jackson have winning records too, and have been performing admirably in recent games which suggests that even without their ace (who is being shut down after his next start) solid starting pitching will be the bread and butter for this team. With bat in hand, they have enjoyed strong seasons from Adam LaRoche, Ryan Zimmerman and Ian Desmond, whilst players like Michael Morse, Bryce Harper and Jayson Werth have all chimed in with timely hits.
The verdict: This is a side that will be tough to beat in a 5 or 7 game series. Their starting rotation is deep, probably the deepest in baseball with the Phillies out of contention and Lincecum out of form. The line-up doesn't really contain any MVP-calibre hitters, but 1-9 in the line-up can all contribute. The only weakness may well be experience - this is a side that has never been involved in the post-season before, and other than Jayson Werth, the team lacks a player who post-season experience. However, in Ryan Zimmerman they have a natural leader, and the season will have instilled tons of belief in them. If they get on a roll in the post-season then look out.
2. The Cincinnati Reds - 83-54
The story so far: The Cincinnati Reds enjoyed a tumultuous 2011, which was hampered by poor pitching and inconsistent hitting as they compiled a losing record. When star slugger Joey Votto went down injured, fans could have been forgiven for thinking that a similar outcome would arise, but instead, the Reds have been resurgent, putting together the second best record in the Majors and going 32-16 in Votto's absence. Front of the rotation man Johnny Cueto is putting together a Cy Young calibre season despite pitching in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the Majors. His 17 victories leads the NL, as does his 2.58 ERA and his stellar work every 5 days has given the Reds a much needed rotation boost. At the back-end of games, Aroldis Chapman has been spectacular, and with the bats, Brandon Philips, Jay Bruce and Todd Frazier have all excelled in Votto's absence.
The verdict: This is a team that has flown under the radar so far this season, which speaks volumes of their sustained excellence. A fully fit Joey Votto will be a huge boost for them, and if Cueto can maintain his regular season excellence they will be a hard team to beat. The addition of Broxton to the bullpen backfired originally, but he has now settled into a groove, and he, Marshall and Chapman will prove an effective trio at the backend of games. The main weakness for the Reds continues to surround their starting pitching. The off-season acquisition of Mat Latos was a shrewd move, and he and Cueto should be dominant come the post-season. However, after them, a trio of Bronson Arroyo, Homer Bailey and Mike Leake does not inspire confidence, and they will need to be at the top of their games if the Reds want to win 5/7 game series.
3. The Texas Rangers - 80-55
The story so far: No surprises here. After two consecutive World Series appearances (and losses), the Rangers have once again come back with a vengeance, and once again they will be hard to beat come October. Hitting is always the name of the game in Arlington, and with Josh Hamilton finally able to put together a full season, the line-up continues to provide fireworks from 1 through 9. Adrian Beltre has been hotter than anyone in baseball over the last month, and the 1-2 punch of Ian Kinsler and Elvis Andrus hasn't failed to produce again. Michael Young and Mike Napoli have been disappointing, which only makes the prolific hitting more impressive, as players like Mitch Moreland and David Murphy have stepped up. On the rubber, the loss of CJ Wilson hasn't had too dramatic an effect, as leftie Matt Harrison has been superb for the Rangers. Rookie Yu Darvish has combined moments of brilliance with occasionally wild control, but the bullpen has once again been peerless, with Joe Nathan bouncing back from injury stronger than ever in the 9th inning role.
The verdict: The Rangers are a tough team to ignore and rightly so. A lineup containing Kinsler, Andrus, Hamilton, Beltre, Cruz, Young and Napoli is potentially devastating, and few rotations will be able to keep them off base. Starting pitching has once again been a problem for the Rangers, with Matt Harrison's excellence offset by the inconsistency of Yu Darvish and Derek Holland. Trade acquisition Ryan Dempster provides an experienced head to the pitching staff, but this is by no means a strong starting 5. If Texas are going to win, they are going to do so by outgunning their opponents - but there's nothing to suggest that won't work...
4. The San Francisco Giants - 77-59
The story so far: It's been a season of 'same-old' for Giants fans. Once again their starting rotation has been dominant, with Lincecum's dramatic fall from grace disguised brilliantly by impressive seasons from Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner and Ryan Vogelsong. And once again, the offense has been anaemic at times. Now disgraced NL hitting leader Melky Cabrera has been banned for the rest of the season, putting a big hole in the Giants line-up which will be tough to fill. The deadline acquisition of Hunter Pence has so far been unable to spark much life into the line-up, although the resurgent hitting of catching phenomenon Buster Posey deserves much praise. In the bullpen, closing games out has been a bit of a lottery at times with Brian Wilson out injured, with Casilla, Romo and now 'closer by committee' all getting chances to be the 9th inning man.
The verdict: The NL West has been as hard to guess as any division this season, but the Giants have finally stretched out a sizeable 4.5 game lead. Should they make the post-season, they will be a tough team to beat, as the experience from 2 years ago combined with excellent starting pitching make them a serious challenge over 5/7 games. Although their line-up is unlikely to scare many teams, they've proved that they can provide more than enough support for their pitchers and AT&T park suits their team perfectly. However, the one key difference between now and 2010 is Tim Lincecum. He has been dire all season on the mound, and will need to recapture his 2010 form if the Giants really want to take it all and if anyone can turn it around when they need him most, it's the two-time Cy Young winner.
5. The Baltimore Orioles - 76-59
The story so far: Ok, hands up who had the Orioles top of the AL East coming into the home straight? Well if your hand is up you're a liar or a time traveller, because this astonishing season from the Orioles has caught everyone by surprise. Most of Baltimore's success can be attributed to the 'clutch' trait - in extra inning games the Orioles are 12-2 and in 1 run games they are 24-7. These stats speak volumes of two things. That the Orioles are one of the top teams at coming up with key hits, and that their bullpen is absolutely shut-down. The Orioles are a team that does not rely on speed (they rank last in team steals) or average (they rank 21st in the Majors) but rather big hits. They rank T-5th in home runs, and do well in all 2-out or runners-on categories. Put simply, the Orioles have ridden their luck with the bat in hand. The pitching has been effective if not dominant - the rotation has chopped and changed frequently, but the bullpen has been the real strength for the Orioles this year. In close/late games, the ERA of 2.15 is best in the Majors, and Jim Johnson/Pedro Strop have been a dominant 1/2 punch at the business end of games.
The verdict: As great as it has been to see the Orioles de-throne the Yankees, at least for a moment, one has to expect that regression will take place. They've put themselves in the best position possible to grab a post-season berth, and the new wildcard system may benefit them hugely. Their fate is likely to hinge on the next week. They play the Yankees and Rays in back-to-back series followed by a tough trip to Oakland. Their last 10 games however, are against the Red Sox and Blue Jays - two teams who have fallen out of contention in the East. Should the Orioles make the play-offs, it will be tough for them to compete without a reliable ace, but the toughness and depth of the team will make them a hard team to beat. One of the best stories of 2012, the Orioles will be hoping that their fairytale season isn't about to hit midnight.
6. The New York Yankees - 76-59
The story so far: What would October baseball be without the Yankees? Despite being plagued by injuries all season long, the Yanks just haven't gone away, and up until now have set the pace in the AL East. CC Sabathia, Alex Rodriguez, Brett Gardner, Mariano Rivera, Mark Teixeira, Michael Pineda, Andy Pettite and now Curtis Granderson have all spent time off the field, most of them extended stretches. Most teams' post-season hopes would have been dead and buried long ago with an injury list that comprehensive, but the Yankees are no ordinary team. Despite frequently lacklustre starting pitching, despite offensive woes and despite an ever-increasing injury list, the Yanks once again find themselves in the heat of the playoff race. Hate em or love em, you have to respect em.
The verdict: The most decorated team in baseball aren't the type to be content with a play-off appearance. Once they get there, they'll want the whole thing, and the heart and resolve of this team suggests they have the winning mentality they need. However, eventually injuries will catch up to you. Behind the unusually fragile CC Sabathia, the Yankees pitching staff is extremely weak. In a 7 game series they could find themselves struggling to keep pace with a high-powered offense. On the plus side, they boast one of the strongest line-ups in baseball. Granderson, Rodriguez, Cano, Teixeira, heck even Derek Jeter are capable of impacting a game at any time, and keeping a line-up like that quiet is easier said than done. First the Yankees need to make the playoffs however, and a kind last 7 games against the Twins and Blue Jays might be what is needed to get them there.
7. Oakland Athletics - 76-59
The story so far: We could quite easily play the 'hands-up' game here again. Completely gutting your rotation and bullpen and getting rid of your most productive hitter doesn't usually result in post-season runs, but then Billy Beane never did things the easy way. Having lost or traded away Gio Gonzalez, Trevor Cahill, Josh Outman, Andrew Bailey, and Josh Willingham, the A's were once again starting from scratch. Their best starter, Brett Anderson, was also recovering from Tommy John surgery and wasn't expected back until late this season. Instead, they took a punt on back-up Red Sox outfielder Josh Reddick and Cuban youtube sensation Yoenis Cespedes. Astonishingly, it worked. Jarrod Parker and Tommy Milone have been outstanding in their rookie season, Brett Anderson has slotted back into the rotation seamlessly and Josh Reddick and Yoenis Cespedes have been a revelation in the 3/4 holes.
The verdict: By far the best feel-good story in the Majors this season, the Athletics have overcome salary issues and a fire-sale of most of their team to put together a record better than the Angels and on a par with the Yankees. An astonishing 13 walk-off wins have contributed to their record, and for the neutrals, seeing the Athletics do so well is the perfect hollywood story. The A's still face a tough battle to reach the post-season, with the Rangers running away with the AL West, their only hope is to get in through one of the two wildcard spots. It would be a fair reward for what has been an incredible season.
8. Atlanta Braves - 76-60
The story so far: Another team that has rather flown under the radar, the Braves have been solid if unspectacular in compiling their 76-60 record, overshadowed rather by the unexpected success of the Nationals. The pitching has been solid, none more so that in recent weeks when the addition of Kris Medlen to the rotation paid off rather as he has strung together an incredible 36.1 innings without giving up an earned run. The hitting has also continued to churn along productively, as Jason Heyward begins to show off the raw talent he displayed in his rookie season and Freddie Freeman continues his steep upward ascent. The Braves also have a fairytale story on their side, as it is the final season of future hall-of-famer Chipper Jones's career. The talismanic third baseman has continued to be a clubhouse leader as well as a potent bat, and a post-season appearance is the least that he deserves in his swansong year.
The verdict: In many ways, the Braves are a 'boring' team. They're not made up of MVP/Cy Young candidates, but rather hard-working players like Michael Bourn, Martin Prado and Tim Hudson who do their job on a consistent basis. For many reasons, this is why the Braves could be a team to watch out for. They were deeply wounded by the terrible September they endured last season which resulted in them falling out of the post-season, and if they make it to October, they could easily stir up a surprise or two whilst they're there.
9. The Tampa Bay Rays - 75-61
The story so far: Any good feeling that had carried over from the end of last year's regular season to the beginning of this year's regular season evaporated quickly in Tampa Bay, as star slugger Evan Longoria went down injured early. Since then, the offense has failed mightily, with new signing Carlos Pena struggling at the plate and the bats even quieted to the extent of a perfect game. However, the pitching has been a bright point. Not as dominant as some billed them to be, but David Price has been superb, and James Shields/Jeremy Hellickson/Matt Moore all offer excellent stuff on a less consistent basis. Now that Evan Longoria is back the bats have started to pick up again, and the Rays are starting to sniff a repeat of last year as they try and spoil the Orioles party.
The verdict: If they reach the post-season, they're going to be a tough team to put away (as Texas found out last year). Their starting rotation is deep, the team ERA leads the major league and hitters like Longoria, Zobrist, BJ Upton and Matt Joyce are not to be under-estimated. However, they sit third in their division, and will need a strong September run in order to force themselves into the playoff picture. If anyone can do it then it is the Rays though.
10. The St Louis Cardinals - 74-62
The story so far: After last year's dream play-off run was sparked by a resurgent September, the Cardinals appear to be trying to pull off the same trick again, as they find themselves well out of the NL Central race and only just clinging on to the second wildcard spot. Last year's hero Chris Carpenter is shelved for the season, and so the ace of the rotation is now Adam Wainwright. Wainwright has been solid for the Cards, if not yet back to his sparkling best, but he is ably supported by the standout Kyle Lohse, Jaime Garcia and rookie Joe Kelly. Yadier Molina has had a career year on offense, and regular contributors Matt Holliday and Carlos Beltran have continued to make the Cards a line-up to fear. However, they have spent the whole season playing catch-up, thanks largely to weak pitching, and now find themselves in a scrap for a wildcard spot.
The verdict: Of the teams vying for the wildcard spots, the Cardinals are the team that look best placed to take one. However, with the streaking Dodgers breathing down their neck, one slip-up will cost the defending champions. The pivotal series will be a four game set between the Cards and Dodgers next weekend, and they face a tough final assignment against the Nats. Should the Cards reach the post-season, they will feel as though they can start afresh, and no team has the same kind of experience as the Cardinals after last season. However, the off-season loss of Albert Pujols might prove to be the decisive factor.
11. The Chicago White Sox - 73-62
The story so far: An ageing line-up, a rotation lacking an ace and a tough division meant that everything was stacked up against the White Sox entering this season. Resurgent hitting from Paul Konerko, Adam Dunn and Alex Rios combined with elite pitching from Chris Sale combined with the weak performances of the Tigers have stuck the White Sox atop the AL Central and in control of their own destiny. The hitting has been the main reason for the White Sox success, with Konerko, Dunn and Rios combining with De Aza and Ramirez to form a strong line-up. Chris Sale has turned into an ace from nowhere, and he, Peavy, Floyd and more recently Liriano form a strong rotation. At the back-end of games, Addison Reed has been highly impressive, and the trade for Brett Myers has bolstered their options for the 8th inning.
The verdict: All season it has only seemed to be a matter of time until the Tigers took over the AL Central lead, and after a series sweep last weekend they did indeed move into a tie for the lead. However, they have once again stuttered since then, and with the White Sox continuing to churn out the wins they are giving themselves every chance to take a post-season spot. A lot will depend on the hitting of Paul Konerko who is the key slugger in the line-up if they want to go deep in the post-season, although the pitching of Chris Sale has suggested that he can earn a win any time he steps on the mound.
12. The Los Angeles Angels - 73-63
The story so far: After splashing the cash in the off-season, acquiring Albert Pujols through free agency, the Angels expected to challenge the Rangers for the division title. However, despite one of the finest rookie seasons in MLB history from Mike Trout, their post-season berth is now in doubt. Jered Weaver has continued to pitch like an ace, with a 16-4 record and 2.86 ERA. However, Dan Haren has struggled so far this year, limping to a 9-10 record with a 4.58 ERA. C.J. Wilson has also struggled a little in his move from Texas, although his 11-9 record and 3.85 ERA are not bad for a no.3 starter. Ervin Santana has struggled mightily with his consistency, although he has recently begun to pitch more confidently and deadline acquisition Zack Greinke has put a sluggish start to his Angels career behind him. With the bat, Trout and Trumbo have been an explosive combination for most of the year, and with Albert Pujols entering his stride the team could start lighting up the sky. However, Kendrys Morales has for the most part struggled, and players like Erick Aybar and Peter Bourjos have not lived up to expectations
The verdict: Despite all these issues, the Angels are still just 3.5 games out of the wildcard hunt. A schedule including 5 games against the A's, 3 against the Tigers, 3 against the White Sox and 6 against the Tigers will make sure they are tested, but if they want to make the post-season they will need to win 2 of 3 from here out. The players in their lineup have the star quality necessary to go along way once they get to the playoffs, but getting there has so far proved to be a tougher challenge than expected.
13. The Detroit Tigers
The story so far: It's a mystery to many how Detroit still find themselves out of the playoffs this season. Verlander has pitched phenomenally, Scherzer has made the step up to the elite tier of pitchers often outdueling hid MVP team-mate, much-heralded 3-4 punch Cabrera and Fielder have both performed well - so where has it all gone wrong? The truth is that other than Verlander and Scherzer, the Tigers rotation has really struggled. No other pitchers have compiled winning records, as Fister and Porcello have struggled with inconsistency and the 5th starter's spot changing all the time. Detroit have also had their struggles with runners in scoring position, as pitchers have learnt that if they can restrict the damage of Cabrera and Fielder, there aren't many other potent bats in the line-up - they may be missing Victor Martinez more than they expected to.
The verdict: Despite their woes so far this season, I still fully expect to see the Tigers in the post-season, and I still fully expect them to go a long way when they get there. The key 4 game set comes next week against the White Sox, and they will need to repeat the sweep they undertook last weekend. Their last 10 games come up against the Twins and the Royals, and it is vital that they win at least 7 or 8 of those if they want to win their division. Verlander and Scherzer will prove a lethal combo in the playoffs however, and the bats are heating up at the right time. Look out!
14. The Los Angeles Dodgers - 73-64
The story so far: Like their cross-town rivals, the Dodgers splashed the cash in a 'now or never' bid to win a World Series. So far, the plan hasn't worked exactly as intended, as they are 4.5 games out of the division and 1.5 games out of the wildcard race. The acquisitions of Adrian Gonzalez, Hanley Ramirez and Shane Victorino have bolstered the line-up significantly, but in the pitching-heavy NL West, the Dodgers lack starters behind Clayton Kershaw and Chris Capuano, as Chad Billingsley, Aaron Harang and now Josh Beckett have all fought inconsistency. In the pen, the Dodgers have lost shutdown closer Kenley Jansen when they need him most, although Belisario and League have filled the void capably so far.
The verdict: When you look at the squad, you have to expect that they will comeback in September and find a way into the playoffs. However, there simply aren't any easy spots going in the NL at the moment. Atlanta and St Louis set the wildcard pace at the moment, and if one slips up then the Pirates could always jump in rather than the Dodgers. They face a really tough schedule over the next two weeks, as they will have to face the Giants, D-Backs, Cardinals, Nationals and Reds in succession. However, the season finishes with two more comfortable series against the Padres and Rockies. By the time they get there, however, the Dodgers may need to sweep them in order to clinch a post-season spot.
15. The Pittsburgh Pirates - 71-64
The story so far: Another surprise team in the running, the Pirates are only one year removed from having the worst record in baseball. Behind MVP candidate Andrew McCutchen, the offense has improved drastically, and with A.J. Burnett turning it around after his move from the Bronx, they have been able to win games on a consistent basis. James McDonald was superb for the first half of the season, and though he has cooled down recently, his season line is still highly impressive (12-7, 3.90 ERA).
The verdict: Although they currently sit furthest out of the wildcard race, their schedule is by far the cosiest, as they have 6 games against the Astros, 6 games against the Cubs and 3 games against the Mets. If they can get on a roll they could still play a part in October baseball, although the weaknesses in their line-ups and lack of a legitimate ace makes me think that the Pirates aren't genuine contenders yet.
If I had to pick now, I would go with:
AL East winner: Yankees
AL Central winner: Tigers
AL West winner: Rangers
AL Wildcard 1: Rays
AL Wildcard 2: Athletics
NL East winner: Nationals
NL Central winner: Reds
NL West winner: Giants
NL Wildcard 1: Braves
NL Wildcard 2: Cardinals
So there you have it. I see both big-spenders from Los Angeles missing out, with the Tigers pipping the White Sox, and the Rays and Athletics holding off the Orioles on the last day of the season.
In terms of the World Series, I see the Rangers taking on the Giants in a 2010 replay, but this time the Rangers exact their revenge to make it 3rd time lucky. Hard to discount the Tigers though. Let's see how wrong I am!
1. The Washington Nationals - 83-52
The story so far: Having already surpassed the franchise record for wins in a season, the sky is the limit for the multi-talented team in the nation's capital. Playing in the same division as the Phillies, Braves and revamped Marlins looked like being too tough a challenge to overcome for the Nats at the season's start, but they have been the most consistent team in the Majors to this point. The main reason is the super-consistent rotation. Strasburg has sparked, Gio Gonzalez sets the NL pace in wins and Jordan Zimmermann has continued his astonishing comeback from Tommy John surgery. Both Ross Detwiler and Edwin Jackson have winning records too, and have been performing admirably in recent games which suggests that even without their ace (who is being shut down after his next start) solid starting pitching will be the bread and butter for this team. With bat in hand, they have enjoyed strong seasons from Adam LaRoche, Ryan Zimmerman and Ian Desmond, whilst players like Michael Morse, Bryce Harper and Jayson Werth have all chimed in with timely hits.
The verdict: This is a side that will be tough to beat in a 5 or 7 game series. Their starting rotation is deep, probably the deepest in baseball with the Phillies out of contention and Lincecum out of form. The line-up doesn't really contain any MVP-calibre hitters, but 1-9 in the line-up can all contribute. The only weakness may well be experience - this is a side that has never been involved in the post-season before, and other than Jayson Werth, the team lacks a player who post-season experience. However, in Ryan Zimmerman they have a natural leader, and the season will have instilled tons of belief in them. If they get on a roll in the post-season then look out.
2. The Cincinnati Reds - 83-54
The story so far: The Cincinnati Reds enjoyed a tumultuous 2011, which was hampered by poor pitching and inconsistent hitting as they compiled a losing record. When star slugger Joey Votto went down injured, fans could have been forgiven for thinking that a similar outcome would arise, but instead, the Reds have been resurgent, putting together the second best record in the Majors and going 32-16 in Votto's absence. Front of the rotation man Johnny Cueto is putting together a Cy Young calibre season despite pitching in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the Majors. His 17 victories leads the NL, as does his 2.58 ERA and his stellar work every 5 days has given the Reds a much needed rotation boost. At the back-end of games, Aroldis Chapman has been spectacular, and with the bats, Brandon Philips, Jay Bruce and Todd Frazier have all excelled in Votto's absence.
The verdict: This is a team that has flown under the radar so far this season, which speaks volumes of their sustained excellence. A fully fit Joey Votto will be a huge boost for them, and if Cueto can maintain his regular season excellence they will be a hard team to beat. The addition of Broxton to the bullpen backfired originally, but he has now settled into a groove, and he, Marshall and Chapman will prove an effective trio at the backend of games. The main weakness for the Reds continues to surround their starting pitching. The off-season acquisition of Mat Latos was a shrewd move, and he and Cueto should be dominant come the post-season. However, after them, a trio of Bronson Arroyo, Homer Bailey and Mike Leake does not inspire confidence, and they will need to be at the top of their games if the Reds want to win 5/7 game series.
3. The Texas Rangers - 80-55
The story so far: No surprises here. After two consecutive World Series appearances (and losses), the Rangers have once again come back with a vengeance, and once again they will be hard to beat come October. Hitting is always the name of the game in Arlington, and with Josh Hamilton finally able to put together a full season, the line-up continues to provide fireworks from 1 through 9. Adrian Beltre has been hotter than anyone in baseball over the last month, and the 1-2 punch of Ian Kinsler and Elvis Andrus hasn't failed to produce again. Michael Young and Mike Napoli have been disappointing, which only makes the prolific hitting more impressive, as players like Mitch Moreland and David Murphy have stepped up. On the rubber, the loss of CJ Wilson hasn't had too dramatic an effect, as leftie Matt Harrison has been superb for the Rangers. Rookie Yu Darvish has combined moments of brilliance with occasionally wild control, but the bullpen has once again been peerless, with Joe Nathan bouncing back from injury stronger than ever in the 9th inning role.
The verdict: The Rangers are a tough team to ignore and rightly so. A lineup containing Kinsler, Andrus, Hamilton, Beltre, Cruz, Young and Napoli is potentially devastating, and few rotations will be able to keep them off base. Starting pitching has once again been a problem for the Rangers, with Matt Harrison's excellence offset by the inconsistency of Yu Darvish and Derek Holland. Trade acquisition Ryan Dempster provides an experienced head to the pitching staff, but this is by no means a strong starting 5. If Texas are going to win, they are going to do so by outgunning their opponents - but there's nothing to suggest that won't work...
4. The San Francisco Giants - 77-59
The story so far: It's been a season of 'same-old' for Giants fans. Once again their starting rotation has been dominant, with Lincecum's dramatic fall from grace disguised brilliantly by impressive seasons from Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner and Ryan Vogelsong. And once again, the offense has been anaemic at times. Now disgraced NL hitting leader Melky Cabrera has been banned for the rest of the season, putting a big hole in the Giants line-up which will be tough to fill. The deadline acquisition of Hunter Pence has so far been unable to spark much life into the line-up, although the resurgent hitting of catching phenomenon Buster Posey deserves much praise. In the bullpen, closing games out has been a bit of a lottery at times with Brian Wilson out injured, with Casilla, Romo and now 'closer by committee' all getting chances to be the 9th inning man.
The verdict: The NL West has been as hard to guess as any division this season, but the Giants have finally stretched out a sizeable 4.5 game lead. Should they make the post-season, they will be a tough team to beat, as the experience from 2 years ago combined with excellent starting pitching make them a serious challenge over 5/7 games. Although their line-up is unlikely to scare many teams, they've proved that they can provide more than enough support for their pitchers and AT&T park suits their team perfectly. However, the one key difference between now and 2010 is Tim Lincecum. He has been dire all season on the mound, and will need to recapture his 2010 form if the Giants really want to take it all and if anyone can turn it around when they need him most, it's the two-time Cy Young winner.
5. The Baltimore Orioles - 76-59
The story so far: Ok, hands up who had the Orioles top of the AL East coming into the home straight? Well if your hand is up you're a liar or a time traveller, because this astonishing season from the Orioles has caught everyone by surprise. Most of Baltimore's success can be attributed to the 'clutch' trait - in extra inning games the Orioles are 12-2 and in 1 run games they are 24-7. These stats speak volumes of two things. That the Orioles are one of the top teams at coming up with key hits, and that their bullpen is absolutely shut-down. The Orioles are a team that does not rely on speed (they rank last in team steals) or average (they rank 21st in the Majors) but rather big hits. They rank T-5th in home runs, and do well in all 2-out or runners-on categories. Put simply, the Orioles have ridden their luck with the bat in hand. The pitching has been effective if not dominant - the rotation has chopped and changed frequently, but the bullpen has been the real strength for the Orioles this year. In close/late games, the ERA of 2.15 is best in the Majors, and Jim Johnson/Pedro Strop have been a dominant 1/2 punch at the business end of games.
The verdict: As great as it has been to see the Orioles de-throne the Yankees, at least for a moment, one has to expect that regression will take place. They've put themselves in the best position possible to grab a post-season berth, and the new wildcard system may benefit them hugely. Their fate is likely to hinge on the next week. They play the Yankees and Rays in back-to-back series followed by a tough trip to Oakland. Their last 10 games however, are against the Red Sox and Blue Jays - two teams who have fallen out of contention in the East. Should the Orioles make the play-offs, it will be tough for them to compete without a reliable ace, but the toughness and depth of the team will make them a hard team to beat. One of the best stories of 2012, the Orioles will be hoping that their fairytale season isn't about to hit midnight.
6. The New York Yankees - 76-59
The story so far: What would October baseball be without the Yankees? Despite being plagued by injuries all season long, the Yanks just haven't gone away, and up until now have set the pace in the AL East. CC Sabathia, Alex Rodriguez, Brett Gardner, Mariano Rivera, Mark Teixeira, Michael Pineda, Andy Pettite and now Curtis Granderson have all spent time off the field, most of them extended stretches. Most teams' post-season hopes would have been dead and buried long ago with an injury list that comprehensive, but the Yankees are no ordinary team. Despite frequently lacklustre starting pitching, despite offensive woes and despite an ever-increasing injury list, the Yanks once again find themselves in the heat of the playoff race. Hate em or love em, you have to respect em.
The verdict: The most decorated team in baseball aren't the type to be content with a play-off appearance. Once they get there, they'll want the whole thing, and the heart and resolve of this team suggests they have the winning mentality they need. However, eventually injuries will catch up to you. Behind the unusually fragile CC Sabathia, the Yankees pitching staff is extremely weak. In a 7 game series they could find themselves struggling to keep pace with a high-powered offense. On the plus side, they boast one of the strongest line-ups in baseball. Granderson, Rodriguez, Cano, Teixeira, heck even Derek Jeter are capable of impacting a game at any time, and keeping a line-up like that quiet is easier said than done. First the Yankees need to make the playoffs however, and a kind last 7 games against the Twins and Blue Jays might be what is needed to get them there.
7. Oakland Athletics - 76-59
The story so far: We could quite easily play the 'hands-up' game here again. Completely gutting your rotation and bullpen and getting rid of your most productive hitter doesn't usually result in post-season runs, but then Billy Beane never did things the easy way. Having lost or traded away Gio Gonzalez, Trevor Cahill, Josh Outman, Andrew Bailey, and Josh Willingham, the A's were once again starting from scratch. Their best starter, Brett Anderson, was also recovering from Tommy John surgery and wasn't expected back until late this season. Instead, they took a punt on back-up Red Sox outfielder Josh Reddick and Cuban youtube sensation Yoenis Cespedes. Astonishingly, it worked. Jarrod Parker and Tommy Milone have been outstanding in their rookie season, Brett Anderson has slotted back into the rotation seamlessly and Josh Reddick and Yoenis Cespedes have been a revelation in the 3/4 holes.
The verdict: By far the best feel-good story in the Majors this season, the Athletics have overcome salary issues and a fire-sale of most of their team to put together a record better than the Angels and on a par with the Yankees. An astonishing 13 walk-off wins have contributed to their record, and for the neutrals, seeing the Athletics do so well is the perfect hollywood story. The A's still face a tough battle to reach the post-season, with the Rangers running away with the AL West, their only hope is to get in through one of the two wildcard spots. It would be a fair reward for what has been an incredible season.
8. Atlanta Braves - 76-60
The story so far: Another team that has rather flown under the radar, the Braves have been solid if unspectacular in compiling their 76-60 record, overshadowed rather by the unexpected success of the Nationals. The pitching has been solid, none more so that in recent weeks when the addition of Kris Medlen to the rotation paid off rather as he has strung together an incredible 36.1 innings without giving up an earned run. The hitting has also continued to churn along productively, as Jason Heyward begins to show off the raw talent he displayed in his rookie season and Freddie Freeman continues his steep upward ascent. The Braves also have a fairytale story on their side, as it is the final season of future hall-of-famer Chipper Jones's career. The talismanic third baseman has continued to be a clubhouse leader as well as a potent bat, and a post-season appearance is the least that he deserves in his swansong year.
The verdict: In many ways, the Braves are a 'boring' team. They're not made up of MVP/Cy Young candidates, but rather hard-working players like Michael Bourn, Martin Prado and Tim Hudson who do their job on a consistent basis. For many reasons, this is why the Braves could be a team to watch out for. They were deeply wounded by the terrible September they endured last season which resulted in them falling out of the post-season, and if they make it to October, they could easily stir up a surprise or two whilst they're there.
9. The Tampa Bay Rays - 75-61
The story so far: Any good feeling that had carried over from the end of last year's regular season to the beginning of this year's regular season evaporated quickly in Tampa Bay, as star slugger Evan Longoria went down injured early. Since then, the offense has failed mightily, with new signing Carlos Pena struggling at the plate and the bats even quieted to the extent of a perfect game. However, the pitching has been a bright point. Not as dominant as some billed them to be, but David Price has been superb, and James Shields/Jeremy Hellickson/Matt Moore all offer excellent stuff on a less consistent basis. Now that Evan Longoria is back the bats have started to pick up again, and the Rays are starting to sniff a repeat of last year as they try and spoil the Orioles party.
The verdict: If they reach the post-season, they're going to be a tough team to put away (as Texas found out last year). Their starting rotation is deep, the team ERA leads the major league and hitters like Longoria, Zobrist, BJ Upton and Matt Joyce are not to be under-estimated. However, they sit third in their division, and will need a strong September run in order to force themselves into the playoff picture. If anyone can do it then it is the Rays though.
10. The St Louis Cardinals - 74-62
The story so far: After last year's dream play-off run was sparked by a resurgent September, the Cardinals appear to be trying to pull off the same trick again, as they find themselves well out of the NL Central race and only just clinging on to the second wildcard spot. Last year's hero Chris Carpenter is shelved for the season, and so the ace of the rotation is now Adam Wainwright. Wainwright has been solid for the Cards, if not yet back to his sparkling best, but he is ably supported by the standout Kyle Lohse, Jaime Garcia and rookie Joe Kelly. Yadier Molina has had a career year on offense, and regular contributors Matt Holliday and Carlos Beltran have continued to make the Cards a line-up to fear. However, they have spent the whole season playing catch-up, thanks largely to weak pitching, and now find themselves in a scrap for a wildcard spot.
The verdict: Of the teams vying for the wildcard spots, the Cardinals are the team that look best placed to take one. However, with the streaking Dodgers breathing down their neck, one slip-up will cost the defending champions. The pivotal series will be a four game set between the Cards and Dodgers next weekend, and they face a tough final assignment against the Nats. Should the Cards reach the post-season, they will feel as though they can start afresh, and no team has the same kind of experience as the Cardinals after last season. However, the off-season loss of Albert Pujols might prove to be the decisive factor.
11. The Chicago White Sox - 73-62
The story so far: An ageing line-up, a rotation lacking an ace and a tough division meant that everything was stacked up against the White Sox entering this season. Resurgent hitting from Paul Konerko, Adam Dunn and Alex Rios combined with elite pitching from Chris Sale combined with the weak performances of the Tigers have stuck the White Sox atop the AL Central and in control of their own destiny. The hitting has been the main reason for the White Sox success, with Konerko, Dunn and Rios combining with De Aza and Ramirez to form a strong line-up. Chris Sale has turned into an ace from nowhere, and he, Peavy, Floyd and more recently Liriano form a strong rotation. At the back-end of games, Addison Reed has been highly impressive, and the trade for Brett Myers has bolstered their options for the 8th inning.
The verdict: All season it has only seemed to be a matter of time until the Tigers took over the AL Central lead, and after a series sweep last weekend they did indeed move into a tie for the lead. However, they have once again stuttered since then, and with the White Sox continuing to churn out the wins they are giving themselves every chance to take a post-season spot. A lot will depend on the hitting of Paul Konerko who is the key slugger in the line-up if they want to go deep in the post-season, although the pitching of Chris Sale has suggested that he can earn a win any time he steps on the mound.
12. The Los Angeles Angels - 73-63
The story so far: After splashing the cash in the off-season, acquiring Albert Pujols through free agency, the Angels expected to challenge the Rangers for the division title. However, despite one of the finest rookie seasons in MLB history from Mike Trout, their post-season berth is now in doubt. Jered Weaver has continued to pitch like an ace, with a 16-4 record and 2.86 ERA. However, Dan Haren has struggled so far this year, limping to a 9-10 record with a 4.58 ERA. C.J. Wilson has also struggled a little in his move from Texas, although his 11-9 record and 3.85 ERA are not bad for a no.3 starter. Ervin Santana has struggled mightily with his consistency, although he has recently begun to pitch more confidently and deadline acquisition Zack Greinke has put a sluggish start to his Angels career behind him. With the bat, Trout and Trumbo have been an explosive combination for most of the year, and with Albert Pujols entering his stride the team could start lighting up the sky. However, Kendrys Morales has for the most part struggled, and players like Erick Aybar and Peter Bourjos have not lived up to expectations
The verdict: Despite all these issues, the Angels are still just 3.5 games out of the wildcard hunt. A schedule including 5 games against the A's, 3 against the Tigers, 3 against the White Sox and 6 against the Tigers will make sure they are tested, but if they want to make the post-season they will need to win 2 of 3 from here out. The players in their lineup have the star quality necessary to go along way once they get to the playoffs, but getting there has so far proved to be a tougher challenge than expected.
13. The Detroit Tigers
The story so far: It's a mystery to many how Detroit still find themselves out of the playoffs this season. Verlander has pitched phenomenally, Scherzer has made the step up to the elite tier of pitchers often outdueling hid MVP team-mate, much-heralded 3-4 punch Cabrera and Fielder have both performed well - so where has it all gone wrong? The truth is that other than Verlander and Scherzer, the Tigers rotation has really struggled. No other pitchers have compiled winning records, as Fister and Porcello have struggled with inconsistency and the 5th starter's spot changing all the time. Detroit have also had their struggles with runners in scoring position, as pitchers have learnt that if they can restrict the damage of Cabrera and Fielder, there aren't many other potent bats in the line-up - they may be missing Victor Martinez more than they expected to.
The verdict: Despite their woes so far this season, I still fully expect to see the Tigers in the post-season, and I still fully expect them to go a long way when they get there. The key 4 game set comes next week against the White Sox, and they will need to repeat the sweep they undertook last weekend. Their last 10 games come up against the Twins and the Royals, and it is vital that they win at least 7 or 8 of those if they want to win their division. Verlander and Scherzer will prove a lethal combo in the playoffs however, and the bats are heating up at the right time. Look out!
14. The Los Angeles Dodgers - 73-64
The story so far: Like their cross-town rivals, the Dodgers splashed the cash in a 'now or never' bid to win a World Series. So far, the plan hasn't worked exactly as intended, as they are 4.5 games out of the division and 1.5 games out of the wildcard race. The acquisitions of Adrian Gonzalez, Hanley Ramirez and Shane Victorino have bolstered the line-up significantly, but in the pitching-heavy NL West, the Dodgers lack starters behind Clayton Kershaw and Chris Capuano, as Chad Billingsley, Aaron Harang and now Josh Beckett have all fought inconsistency. In the pen, the Dodgers have lost shutdown closer Kenley Jansen when they need him most, although Belisario and League have filled the void capably so far.
The verdict: When you look at the squad, you have to expect that they will comeback in September and find a way into the playoffs. However, there simply aren't any easy spots going in the NL at the moment. Atlanta and St Louis set the wildcard pace at the moment, and if one slips up then the Pirates could always jump in rather than the Dodgers. They face a really tough schedule over the next two weeks, as they will have to face the Giants, D-Backs, Cardinals, Nationals and Reds in succession. However, the season finishes with two more comfortable series against the Padres and Rockies. By the time they get there, however, the Dodgers may need to sweep them in order to clinch a post-season spot.
15. The Pittsburgh Pirates - 71-64
The story so far: Another surprise team in the running, the Pirates are only one year removed from having the worst record in baseball. Behind MVP candidate Andrew McCutchen, the offense has improved drastically, and with A.J. Burnett turning it around after his move from the Bronx, they have been able to win games on a consistent basis. James McDonald was superb for the first half of the season, and though he has cooled down recently, his season line is still highly impressive (12-7, 3.90 ERA).
The verdict: Although they currently sit furthest out of the wildcard race, their schedule is by far the cosiest, as they have 6 games against the Astros, 6 games against the Cubs and 3 games against the Mets. If they can get on a roll they could still play a part in October baseball, although the weaknesses in their line-ups and lack of a legitimate ace makes me think that the Pirates aren't genuine contenders yet.
If I had to pick now, I would go with:
AL East winner: Yankees
AL Central winner: Tigers
AL West winner: Rangers
AL Wildcard 1: Rays
AL Wildcard 2: Athletics
NL East winner: Nationals
NL Central winner: Reds
NL West winner: Giants
NL Wildcard 1: Braves
NL Wildcard 2: Cardinals
So there you have it. I see both big-spenders from Los Angeles missing out, with the Tigers pipping the White Sox, and the Rays and Athletics holding off the Orioles on the last day of the season.
In terms of the World Series, I see the Rangers taking on the Giants in a 2010 replay, but this time the Rangers exact their revenge to make it 3rd time lucky. Hard to discount the Tigers though. Let's see how wrong I am!
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