Thursday 31 March 2016

2016 Division Previews: AL Central

Having already previewed the American League West and the National League West, we today turn our attention back to the AL and the home of the World Series' champions: the AL Central. In 2015, the fairytale Kansas City Royals ran away with the division title, compiling 95 wins in the process - the most for any team outside the NL Central. The Minnesota Twins were a pleasant surprise in the division, staying in the wildcard race for much of September and finishing above .500 for the first time since 2010. The Indians, Tigers and White Sox were all hugely disappointing after failing to meet pre-season expectations, all struggling to put together a winning record despite talented rosters. Heading into 2016, the division appears to be wide open. After two seasons of making the World Series', the Royals look to be finally earning the respect they have wanted whilst the Tigers and White Sox made some serious Winter splashes to improve their rosters. The Twins have a young and promising team whilst the Indians young rotation has some of the most promising stuff in the Majors. Which team has the full package - or at least enough of it to take division spoils?

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Chicago White Sox (76-86)

Projected Opening Day Line-up
No. Name Position Projected 2016 AVG/OBP/SLG
1 Adam Eaton CF .277/.352/.400
2 Brett Lawrie 2B .255/.310/.406
3 Jose Abreu 1B .285/.352/.505
4 Todd Frazier 3B .255/.318/.449
5 Melky Cabrera DH .281/.325/.403
6 Austin Jackson LF .261/.315/.392
7 Alex Avila C .203/.321/.336
8 Avisail Garcia RF .265/.311/.394
9 Jimmy Rollins SS .236/.308/.376

Projected Opening Day Rotation

No. Name Projected 2016 Innings/Strikeouts/ERA
1 Chris Sale 196/241/2.99
2 Jose Quintana 196/166/3.73
3 Carlos Rodon 159/169/3.81
4 John Danks 166/114/4.88
5 Mat Latos 132/108/4.65

The White Sox sport an entirely revamped infield in 2016, but their primary weakness from 2015 remains: a team-wide inability to get on base with any kind of consistency. Adam Eaton is probably the best hitter on the team not named Jose Abreu, with strong contact and on-base skills that allow him to access his speed on the bases and a bit of power from the left-side. He's a good lead-off man. Brett Lawrie has done nothing but disappoint since his exciting 2011 debut and having been acquired by the White Sox he will be given a chance to showcase his reasonable right-handed power at second base. Ultimately though, he strikes out too much and walks too little. Abreu has been superb in two seasons in the Majors, although he declined almost everywhere last year (which was to be expected after his incredible 2014 campaign).

Frazier was the biggest acquisition of the off-season, in a three-team trade from the Reds, but he fell off the table after starting the season as one of the best third basemen in the league. He rarely walks and so unless he has good luck with BABIP or fly balls it's hard to see him put up an OBP north of .320. Austin Jackson and Alex Avila are both ex-Tigers that appear to be past their peak, but they will at least help out a previously woeful White Sox defense. Garcia is being given one last chance to come through on his top prospect status, but having compiled negative-two wins in his Major League career so far it doesn't look good whilst Jimmy Rollins will stave off retirement for one more season with below league-average offense and declining raw speed and power. There's some upside to this line-up, and big seasons from Cabrera and Frazier would make this line-up more formidable but right now this is not an intimidating offensive group.


The rotation is left-hand heavy, but that isn't really a problem when the guy leading it is one of the best pitchers in baseball. Chris Sale celebrates his 27th birthday today (Happy Birthday Chris!) and has improved season on season since 2011. His strikeout and walk rates were both stupidly elite in 2015, and an improved defense behind him will push that ERA well below 3. Health concerns continue to fade with every 200-inning season he logs, and at this point the sky is the limit for the talented southpaw. Behind him is the less regarded but extremely effective Jose Quintana who has compiled 13.4 wins above replacement over the past three seasons with 200 innings in each. He strikes hitters out, he doesn't walk many and he keeps the ball in the ballpark, he's a quiet but effective number two for this team.

Carlos Rodon didn't turn heads in the way that other young pitchers did in 2015, but he was absolute death to left-handed hitters and began to make strides with a change-up too. That fastball-slider combo gives him a relatively high floor and if he can harness his control and develop that change-up then he could be a number-one calibre starter. John Danks is boring but useful, in that he eats up innings with painfully average results and peripherals. He's not going to win many games single-handedly but he should quietly be a useful back-end option for the Sox. Mat Latos had a torrid 2015 season, bouncing from Miami to both LA teams with poor results everywhere. The raw stuff remains unchanged though, and on a bargain deal the change in scenery might allow him to get back to his impressive 2013 results. There isn't a lot of depth beyond these starters, but if the front three can stay healthy then this is a top quality staff.


David Robertson will lead the pen once again for the White Sox, and though his 2015 performance may look disappointing on the surface, Robertson's underlying stats - particularly strikeout and walk rates - remain elite. He had an issue with home runs which may persevere as a fly ball pitcher in a small ballpark but his leash will be long and he has the pure stuff to be a dominant ninth inning man. Jake Petricka will hope the revamped infield defense helps his cause as a groundball pitcher as his strikeout rate is far from elite, whilst Zach Duke will continue to serve as the primary leftie in the pen after a solid if unspectacular 2014 campaign.

Zach Putnam took a step back in 2015 after a dominant 2014 season, but the strikeout rate remains high and so an increase in groundballs and a bit of good fortune would make him a solid right-handed option at the back end of games. As with a lot of White Sox relievers though, the home run ball remains a concern. Nate Jones has struggled with injuries over the past two seasons, but flashed overpowering stuff in a short 2015 cameo and could have the best raw stuff outside Robertson in the 'pen, with a high-90's heater and low-90's slider. Overall, the bullpen has decent upside and if it can limit the home run ball it should be a reliable innings eater at the back end of games. There's some volatility in pretty much every arm in this bullpen, but an improved infield defense should help ease some of the pain on balls in play.

2016 Projection

There are a lot of people who are bullish on the White Sox' chances after an aggressive off-season, but I don't see a team that will be particularly improved from 2015. The line-up remains weak, dependent on the production of Jose Abreu and without guys who can get on base and score runs. The rotation is a real strength, behind Sale, Quintana and Rodon there is a lot of cause for optimism, especially as the latter develops, although the back-end of the group has considerable question marks over effectiveness and clubhouse chemistry. The bullpen is fine, with several bounceback candidates, but unless the likes of Cabrera, Frazier, Lawrie and Garcia can live up to their potential, this is a team that is going to fall behind in a competitive division.

Projected record: 83-79



Minnesota Twins (83-79)

Projected Opening Day Line-up

No. Name Position Projected 2016 AVG/OBP/SLG
1 Brian Dozier 2B .244/.318/.437
2 Joe Mauer 1B .276/.356/.387
3 Miguel Sano RF .249/.337/.491
4 Trevor Plouffe 3B .252/.315/.427
5 Eddie Rosario LF .256/.287/.415
6 Byung-Ho Park DH .266/.333/.463
7 Eduardo Escobar SS .256/.302/.409
8 Kurt Suzuki C .253/.305/.334
9 Byron Buxton CF .266/.310/.405

Projected Opening Day Rotation

No. Name Projected 2016 Innings/Strikeouts/ERA
1 Phil Hughes 167/129/4.10
2 Ervin Santana 142/104/4.51
3 Kyle Gibson 177/126/4.19
4 Tommy Milone 148/114/4.62
5 Ricky Nolasco 106/81/4.94

The Twins line-up will be led off by Brian Dozier who has enjoyed a fascinating career resurgence from non-prospect to all-star since 2010. Last year saw him mash a career-high 28 home runs, although with a drop off in walks and stolen bases his overall value fell slightly. He is far from a prototypical lead-off hitter and the second half decline last season is concerning, but Dozier provides a rare power/speed combination on the middle infield. Joe Mauer is rather a forgotten man, now plying a mediocre trade over at first base, and whilst a .270 average and .340 OBP is fine, the $180m contract looks worse by the year.

Miguel Sano is a big-time prospect with huge power, and he mashed 18 home runs in just 80 games in a scintillating debut last season. His contact issues (35% strikeout rate) are a concern, but he walks a lot which is a promising sign for a rookie and if he can make adjustments to tap into that power more frequently he'll be the cornerstone of this line-up for years. Trevor Plouffe is a solid if unspectacular third baseman who may be shopped this season to make room for Sano at the hot corner, whilst Eddie Rosario has an intriguing power/speed blend but almost no on-base skills. Byung-ho Park projects as an absolute masher in the Majors, with 30 home run power and elite plate discipline that points towards OBPs north of .350. However, all new players to the league tend to require periods of adjustment and 2016 will be a test for the 29 year old first baseman. Eduardo Escobar has surprising pop for a small middle-infielder, but will be under pressure for his job from Danny Santana, a few more walks to go along with the extra-base power would make him a very serviceable shortstop. 

Kurt Suzuki offers little to no value at the plate at this point in his career and John Ryan Murphy should steal some playing time, whilst top prospect Byron Buxton comes with considerable expectations and elite defensive skills, but we haven't seen his bat impress since a monster 2013 campaign so this may well be another year of underwhelming performance, although at this stage just a healthy season would be a boost for the 22 year old. There is some upside to this team, with power and speed up the middle of the field and some big time power potential from Park and Sano. There remain considerable question marks though for a young team that strikes out a lot, and so 2016 may prove a season of adjustments and growing pains, although there are a lot of causes for optimism for Minnesota fans.


Phil Hughes had a historic 2014 campaign, setting a Major League record K-BB percentage, but he suffered for his elite control in 2015 as right-handed hitters especially tore him apart inside the strike zone. He doesn't have the swing-and-miss stuff to be an ace, but his utter disdain for walks means he should at least chew some innings without being dreadful although the outfield defense will need to be improved. Ervin Santana returned from suspension to pitch brilliantly in September after starting his season poorly. He has probably the most upside of anyone on this staff but is frustratingly inconsistent. Kyle Gibson plied an elite groundball rate to a solid 2015 campaign, and whilst his raw stuff suggest he could get strikeouts too he is yet to reflect that in his performances. He won't kill the Twins, but unless he turns that stuff into K's he's unlikely to be much of an impact starter either.

Tommy Milone is a soft-throwing leftie who always appears to be on the verge of a 1.1 inning, 9 earned run disaster but he mitigates the damage with a decent number of strikeouts, stinginess with walks and a spacious home ball park that should help his fly ball tendencies. Pencil him in for 150+ innings of forgettable 4.50 ERA performance. Ricky Nolasco has consistently underperformed his peripheral stats for several seasons now, and at this point he is no longer an improvement candidate. The Twins will likely roll him out for April and see if he can't showcase his 2011 stuff, but he's almost certainly going to be dropped from the rotation at some point in favour of exciting right-hander Jose Berrios. This is a rotation that already bores me before it's thrown a pitch, with journeyman options all-round that may provide innings and stability but won't be winning the Twins many games. Berrios is a huge talent who might become the best pitcher on the staff upon his call-up, but aside from him there is little to look forward to on the bump in Minnesota this year.


Glen Perkins is one of the least sexy closers in the game today, and unlike other southpaws who own ninth inning roles, he doesn't have overpowering stuff. That aside, he has been a surprisingly reliable closer for the Twins since 2013, saving between 32 and 36 games each season with an ERA that isn't too tough to swallow. He has a home run problem, even if a spacious ballpark, but he strikes out a hitter an inning, doesn't walk too many and is pretty much guaranteed the job as long as he doesn't implode. Kevin Jepsen was a nice back-end addition to the pen at the trade deadline last season and he filled in admirably for Perkins in a dominant second-half performance in Minnesota. He has some control issues, but gets strikeouts and will be a useful arm for the Twins.

Trevor May was converted to the bullpen in 2015 and took to the role with aplomb, his raw stuff playing up in short bursts as he struck out more than a hitter per inning. The Twins maintain they want to keep him as a starter in future, but he likely will be a bullpen piece at least in 2016. Casey Fien will be back this season, but his slow decline continued in 2015 with the strikeouts almost disappearing and the lack of ground-balls makes it hard to see where he will reliably get outs from. He's no longer a reliable option for the Twins. Fernando Abad will be the main leftie in the bullpen but he actually struggled with same-handed hitters last season and is far from a shutdown LOOGY. The bullpen has a couple of talented arms at top but little depth, and considering the state of the rotation it is going to be stretched to provide quality innings for the Twins this year.

2016 Projection

After their surprisingly strong 2015 campaign and considering their roster and upper-minors are loaded with talent, the Twins are a popular sleeper pick to have a big 2016 campaign but I think these predictions are premature. A lot of things had to go right for the Twins to even break .500 last year, and guys like Sano, Buxton and Rosario are bound to face some growing pains as Major League pitchers adjust. European-born slugger Max Kepler should make his MLB debut in 2016 which is exciting for baseball fans on this side of the pond, but to expect immediate impact would be naive. The line-up has some talent however, and it is the rotation that is the real Achilles heel of this young team. There is no recognisable ace, or even a number two on this staff, and outside Triple-A pitcher Jose Berrios there is no arm that has any significant upside. Innings-eaters are useful as a number four or five starter, but a rotation full of them is going to struggle, especially in a division as competitive as the Central.

The bullpen doesn't have the talent to win games on its own, and I think the Twins are going to find themselves looking at some ugly pitching ratios unless the likes of Ervin Santana and Tommy Milone had find consistency that they have been lacking for years. The Twins have a great core, and a lot of useful players that will play a part on winning teams but they're a pitcher or two short of the play-offs this season.

Projected record: 78-84




Cleveland Indians (81-80)

Projected Opening Day Line-up

No. Name Position Projected 2016 AVG/OBP/SLG
1 Jason Kipnis 2B .275/.346/.415
2 Francisco Lindor SS .275/.321/.417
3 Carlos Santana DH .244/.366/.431
4 Mike Napoli 1B .229/.337/.426
5 Marlon Byrd RF .250/.292/.413
6 Yan Gomes C .256/.298/.430
7 Tyler Naquin CF .229/.285/.349
8 Juan Uribe 3B .267/.312/.413
9 Rajai Davis LF .258/.302/.402

Projected Opening Day Rotation

No. Name Projected 2016 Innings/Strikeouts/ERA
1 Corey Kluber 202/217/3.21
2 Carlos Carrasco 173/193/3.08
3 Danny Salazar 178/195/3.49
4 Cody Anderson 142/89/4.38
5 Trevor Bauer 165/163/4.33

The Indians line-up will be jump-started by second baseman Jason Kipnis who suffered an up-and-down 2015 season but ended the season with strong average and on-base numbers, even if the power and speed was down from seasons past. At this point he is a good bet for a .280 average, .350 OBP and a handful of homers and steals which makes him a more than adequate table-setter on this team. Francisco Lindor set the world alight in 2015 and would have received more recognition if not for another American League rookie shortstop. His offensive numbers were unsustainable but they show an enormous ceiling for a talented defender who, if he can draw a few more walks and fill out into some power, will be a legitimate five-win players at his peak.

Carlos Santana had a down season for power, but his elite plate discipline makes him a good candidate to bounce back. Even with a .250 average, he walks enough to be an above average offensive performer and a return to 30-homer power would make him a middle-of-the-order threat. Mike Napoli is another good bet to bounce back after a rough season in Boston, his strong plate discipline and power threat make him a similar hitter to Santana, albeit with wider platoon splits. Marlon Byrd continues to define his age, providing right-handed power but not much else, and as a defensive liability in right field it's unlikely he'll play more than 80 games in this Indians line-up but a strong season would be a nice way to cap a successful career. Yan Gomes was bitten hard by the regression bug in 2015, and whilst his defensive and pitch framing abilities means he has value even when he's a black hole at the plate, a return to his 2013 and 2014 offensive statistics would be a huge boost for a team lacking in star power. 

Tyler Naquin is a surprise late addition to the opening day roster, a talented defender who is going to have to make significant adjustments to big league pitching, whilst loveable Juan Uribe will be given a chance to continue his offensive renaissance at third base, at least until Lonnie Chisenhall returns from the DL. Speedy Rajai Davis has seen age take a hit on his one elite skill, but he remains a lefty-killer who should make things happen on the bases. The injury to Michael Brantley leaves this line-up looking a little flat, with very few good bets to hit above .260, but there is some power here and the infield defense will be much improved by a full season of Lindor at shortstop.


Corey Kluber had a somewhat disappointing encore season as the Cy Young winner in 2015, with just nine wins and a 3.49 ERA but much of this regression can be blamed on the uselessness of his team-mates, both at the plate and in the field. His peripheral numbers - especially the walks and strikeouts - remain elite and with some more good luck in the home run department a return to 2014 numbers isn't out of the question. Carlos Carrasco followed up his dominant 2014 second half with a strong 2015 campaign, and there is reason to think he might improve. The strikeout rate continues to climb on the back of that wicked slider, and he suffered from atrocious bad luck on balls in play and home runs in 2015. He's a sleeper Cy Young candidate.

Danny Salazar perhaps has the best raw stuff of the lot, with an upper-90s fastball and devastating split-change up and after logging 185 innings last season he appears set to take another step forward this year. An improved walk rate and continuance of his rising ground-ball rate in front of an improving defense could see him post an ERA close to three. Cody Anderson had a quietly nice debut in 2015, although he relied on some home run and BABIP luck as his minuscule 4.34 K/9 ratio leaves him at the mercy of his usually atrocious defense. He has been a huge name in Spring Training however, showing up with a 96mph fastball which, if it can lead to more strikeouts, would make him a very attractive number four starter. Trevor Bauer has seemingly been a high-upside starter forever, but he's never been able to make it click in a full season. The stuff is there, but he struggles with both control issues and the home run ball. Reign on or both of these issues in and he has number two starter upside given the strikeouts. Overall this is a talented and exciting rotation, loaded with strikeout arms that have enormous ceiling, and Josh Tomlin is a terrific number six arm in case something goes wrong.


Cody Allen isn't a name that tends to excite people when it comes to shutdown closers but it should be. For three straight seasons now Allen has posted sub-3 ERA's over more than 69 innings with elite strikeout numbers, setting a career-best in 2015 for punchouts and home run prevention. He suffered a little thanks to a reduced strand rate, but there is no reason to think he won't be anything but dominant once again in 2016. Bryan Shaw is another bullpen workhorse who has racked up innings over the past few years, seemingly to the detriment of his stuff as the velocity ticked down some in 2015, but he has remained effective with enough punchouts and soft contact to work around a higher than usual WHIP. Assuming he can stay healthy, he should provide more of the same this year.

Zach McAllister made the transition from rotation to bullpen last year and made it brilliantly, showcasing plus stuff in short bursts with more than a strikeout per inning. He's a solid member of this group for 2016. Joba Chamberlain and Ross Detwiler are two veterans working with reduced stuff who may be useful in bullpen roles for Cleveland but have no business entering the game in high-leverage situations. Jeff Manship was an awesome fairytale story in 2015, posting an ERA under 1 after several years bouncing around from club to club with awful results. Regression is a given, but he should be a reliable member of the group. Overall, it's a strong bullpen, highlighted by Allen's rise to elite status, and given the outstanding state of the rotation, they should be given plenty of leads to hold.

2016 Projection

The Indians enter 2016 as a trendy pick to have a big season... which is exactly where they were this time last year. After a disappointing 2015 campaign, you would hope Francona and company have learned some lessons, and although the absence of Brantley is a big blow to this line-up, the improved infield and defense highlighted by Francisco Lindor as well as a couple of veteran acquisitions means the offense should score some runs and make more plays in the field. The rotation is dynamite, led by two legitimate aces in Kluber and Carrasco, and with three huge-upside young arms behind them this is a group that could even take another stride forward in 2016. Guys like Bauer and Salazar are yet to put it all together, but they don't have to particularly as the numbers three and four in the rotation, and if they do this could really be the best rotation in baseball. The bullpen is also solid, largely thanks to some astute rotation-to-pen transformations and the rise of Cody Allen, whilst the improved defense should have an effect on run prevention too.

Overall, the Indians are hard not to be optimistic about, and whilst there are some offensive issues to iron out, with the return of Brantley looking increasingly important, I think the strength of the rotation makes the Indians floor about a .500 team and I'm happy to believe they could challenge for the division.

Projected record: 88-74




Detroit Tigers (74-87)

Projected Opening Day Line-up

No. Name Position Projected 2016 AVG/OBP/SLG
1 Ian Kinsler 2B .277/.324/.411
2 Justin Upton LF .265/.348/.481
3 Miguel Cabrera 1B .306/.389/.517
4 J.D. Martinez RF .282/.340/.535
5 Victor Martinez DH .279/.338/.451
6 Nick Castellanos 3B .265/.314/.428
7 James McCann C .253/.288/.360
8 Jose Iglesias SS .275/.322/.343
9 Anthony Gose CF .247/.312/.351

Projected Opening Day Rotation

No. Name Projected 2016 Innings/Strikeouts/ERA
1 Jordan Zimmermann 182/137/4.02
2 Justin Verlander 165/141/3.89
3 Anibal Sanchez 144/134/3.94
4 Mike Pelfrey 113/60/4.95
5 Shane Greene 127/85/5.24

Ian Kinsler is now several years removed from his 30/30 peak, but he remains a consistent lead-off hitter who provides more value than most of the second basemen in the league. He combines wonderful contact skills with a willingness to run deep counts that means he walks almost as much as he strikes out. The speed and power is down, but a 15/15 season feels reachable, and if he can eek out a .330 OBP with it the Tigers will be very happy. Justin Upton was the biggest acquisition of the off-season for the Tigers, and his right-handed power will slot nicely into the line-up. He has made a lot of hard-hit contact in recent years, cutting down on infield pop ups and even stealing 19 bases in 2015 - his most in four years. If he can hit .270 he'll be a real asset with 30 homer power and enough walks to boost that OBP too.

Miguel Cabrera is a joy to watch, an incredibly consistent slugger who dealt with some injury issues last season but when fit is one of the finest pure hitters in baseball. J.D. Martinez laughed in the face of regression in 2015, mashing 38 home runs even when he took a step back in batting average, and at this point we just have to appreciate the incredible adjustments he made to go from failed prospect to one of the most feared sluggers in the American League. Victor Martinez has seen age catch up with him over the past twelve months, dealing with various ailments and putting up a -2 win season in 2015. When healthy, he can still hit for average with 20 home run power, but he is limited to designated hitter only duty and his speed offers little room for optimism when he hasn't got the line drives screaming.

Nick Castellanos is yet to live up to his top prospect hype with two fairly mediocre seasons at the plate to his name. At this point, his upside is .270 with twenty home runs but 2016 will likely be a year of further adjustments for the young third baseman. James McCann has little to no offensive upside, and although his arm grades out as elite his pitch framing skills were the worst in the Majors in 2015. Jose Iglesias' defense needs no justification, and though he doesn't need to hit to be a serviceable Major Leaguer, he has shown an ability to make contact and hit .300 which helps a team that has a few strikeout problems. Anthony Gose could use a little more on-base skills to allow him to access that elite speed although his defense makes him a useful asset in centre field either way.


The departure of David Price leaves the team without an obvious ace and Jordan Zimmermann was slightly disappointing in a Tigers uniform last year, although his peripheral numbers remain solid. ZiPS doesn't like him to rebound but I do, another season of mid-3's ERA feels about right to me, although he would have to take a significant step forward to be an ace. Justin Verlander's fall from grace was as inexplicable as it was fast, and his 2015 season looked like being another disaster when poor results met injury. However, upon his return he found that blazing fastball that carried him to a Cy Young award with much more dominant performance, and so his early season outings will bear watching as a healthy Verlander is a very useful Verlander.

Anibal Sanchez is in a similar boat, as his talent is unquestioned but non-stop shoulder woes have sidelined him for significant portions of the last two seasons. If he can stay on the field he has number two starter upside. Mike Pelfrey is reliable in that he can eat some innings but he has very little else to be excited about. The Tigers have mentioned moving him to the bullpen where his stuff could play up a la Wade Davis, but for the time being his presence is required in the rotation. Shane Greene completes the staff, and after regression in 2015 back towards his true skills, he will look to use his solid breaking stuff in order to reduce the impact on his fairly average fastball, but he isn't an awful back of the rotation option for a team that feels one starter short. Al Avila could be a busy GM at the trade deadline looking for pitching if this Tigers team is competitive.


After racking up 82 saves over the past two seasons with the Brewers, veteran closer Francisco Rodriguez takes his ever-changing gig to Motown this season, where he is the clear ninth inning option on an ageing relief staff. Rodriguez now has the seventh-most saves in Major League history with 386 and could ostensibly move up as high as fourth with a healthy and productive season. He might not be the flame throwing option he was in his youth but his change-up is a testament to how hard he has worked to change his game. Mark Lowe earned himself a multi-year deal after seeing a dramatic increase in strikeout rate in 2015 to go along with a stingy 1.96 BB/9 rate. An ERA under two is unlikely to repeat given his struggles with lefties, but he might be the second best arm in this Detroit bullpen.

Justin Wilson is a hard-throwing leftie who arrived from New York last season, and he has the stuff and endurance to be the primary southpaw for Ausmus. Expected closer-of-the-future Bruce Rondon suffered through a tumultuous 2015 campaign with on the field struggles and off the field issues contributing to being sent home early by Detroit, and it appears he will start 2016 in the Minors after failing to impress in Spring Training, although his stuff would be a bonus for the Tigers pen assuming he can get his head in the right place. Drew VerHagen and Blaine Hardy appear the likely candidate to close out the relief corps. The acquisitions of Rodriguez and Lowe will help patch up what was one of the worst bullpens in baseball last season, but this remains far from a dominant group.

2016 Projection

The Tigers have some real firepower in their line-up, and the top half can rival any other in the American League, although the health of guys like Cabrera and Martinez is going to be crucial as a lot of key players enter the decline stage of their careers. Gose and Iglesias are glove-first talents who will be a boost in the field, whilst a big year for Nick Castellanos would be a major bonus for a team that needs to have a big year on offense. The rotation has a few reasonable arms, but Verlander and Sanchez are ageing fast, whilst Greene and Pelfrey offer little upside other than innings-chewing. Young left-hander Daniel Norris will likely get a nod in the rotation at some point this season, and his development will be worth keeping an eye on, but at the moment this group of pitchers remains a weak point for the Tigers.

They're usually a competitive outfit, but I don't see a lot of talent on this team that could take them considerably further than they did in their awful 2015 campaign. A healthy Miggy, the arrival of Upton and a bounceback from the likes of Sanchez and Zimmermann should guarantee a winning record, but the Tigers don't look like a 90 win team and so may have to settle for wildcard chasing.

Projected record: 85-77




Kansas City Royals (95-67)

Projected Opening Day Line-up

No. Name Position Projected 2016 AVG/OBP/SLG
1 Alcides Escobar SS .266/.298/.350
2 Mike Moustakas 3B .256/.313/.426
3 Lorenzo Cain CF .284/.332/.416
4 Eric Hosmer 1B .288/.347/.437
5 Kendrys Morales DH .276/.336/.444
6 Salvador Perez C .271/.299/.430
7 Alex Gordon LF .261/.350/.419
8 Paulo Orlando RF .246/.277/.349
9 Omar Infante 2B .253/.278/.354

Projected Opening Day Rotation
No. Name Projected 2015 Innings/Strikeouts/ERA
1 Edinson Volquez 176/131/4.06
2 Yordano Ventura 175/164/3.70
3 Ian Kennedy 160/139/4.80
4 Chris Young 111/73/4.23
5 Kris Medlen 109/76/4.54

The Royals return almost an identical starting line-up the one that led them to the World Series several months ago, and it appears likely that Alcides Escobar will remain in the lead-off spot. Although his defense is wonderful, Escobar offers almost no value with the bat, with non-existent power and a total inability to draw walks which means he is a good bet for a sub-.300 OBP which is unacceptable for a lead-off hitter. Moustakas completely changed his game in a breakout 2015 campaign, adopting an all-fields approach which boosted his batting average but didn't diminish the power as he hit a career high 22 home runs. If he can maintain those adjustments there is no reason to think he can't outperform the ZiPS projection. 

Cain had a magical 2015 season after a breakout 2014 on his way to top-three MVP honours. The average is likely to take a dive as his reduced strikeout rate has not led to more walks, and the power surge may not be sustained but he remains an offensive force who plays elite center field defense. Hosmer had another solid campaign, hitting line drives, increasing his walk percentages and even knocking 18 home runs. He's a consistent performer who should be in line for a big year at the heart of this line-up.

Kendrys Morales had a revival at the plate in 2015, increasing his walks, decreasing the strikeouts and managing to hit a team-leading 22 home runs. The .290 average feels unsustainable but if he can stay healthy he is a good bet for 20 home runs and a .350 OBP. Salvador Perez has a reputation as an elite offensive catcher but he has precipitously declined in production since 2011 and was horrible at the plate last year despite a career high in home runs. He literally never walks, and his free swinging approach makes him very reliant on BABIP fortune. His defense will keep him in the line-up but unless he hits .300 again the bat isn't helping the team much. Alex Gordon elected to remain in Kansas City over the off-season, and his all-round game is an underrated asset to this team as gold glove defence in left field is matched by a solid contact/patience game at the plate. He won't pile up many home runs or steals but a .350 OBP is not to be sneezed at. 

Orlando will get the majority of starts in right field whilst Dyson returns from injury but he is an offensive black hole who may only outperform Omar Infante, the veteran second baseman who has fallen off a cliff in the last couple of years and could see his line-up spot poached by Christian Colon. Overall, the line-up has much of the same ability that took it to the World Series title in 2015, although several players are likely in line for some regression. In Escobar, Perez, Orlando and Infante they also have four very likely candidates to post OBP's below .300 so ignore commentators when they claim that this line-up has no weaknesses.


The rotation will be led by Edinson Volquez who carried his Pittsburgh-fuelled magic over to Kansas City last season and will be remembered for his heroic post-season performances under the most difficult of circumstances. At this point he remains a bit of an enigma, but after two straight solid seasons he should be a good bet for 200 innings that won't hurt KC with the occasional disaster start countered by spells of brilliance. Yordano Ventura had a disappointing first half for the Royals last year, and was ultimately demoted to AAA at one point, but he rediscovered his elite velocity and devastating breaking ball and was arguably their biggest asset on the mound in the post-season. The Royals will need him to make that step towards an ace this year.

Ian Kennedy was the biggest off-season acquisition, and despite a disastrous 2015 campaign there is reason for optimism as his home run problem was unsustainable and he retains decent strikeout stuff that should play up in front of the Royals elite defense. Chris Young continues to post the worst ground-ball percentage in the Majors but continues to make it work, and with Gordon, Cain and Dyson behind him there is no reason to think he won't see more fly balls hitting gloves than ever before. Kris Medlen appears to have beaten out Dillon Gee for the final rotation spot, but after two Tommy John surgeries he is an injury risk and his performances in the starting role have been inconsistent to say the least. It's a rotation that won't kill the Royals, but there is no clear ace unless Ventura makes an almighty leap forward and hoping for bounce-back years for Kennedy and Medlen feels wildly optimistic.


Wade Davis has proven himself as one of the best relievers in the business over the past two years, putting up video game numbers in 2015 on his way to 17 saves and a 0.94 ERA. The strikeouts actually fell off a bit from his ludicrous 2014 campaign and he gave up more fly balls and even the occasional home run but at this point it's simply nit-picking. Yes, Davis will likely regress from an ERA under one but he remains one of the best closers in the game. Joakim Soria returns to the Royals after a post-injury renaissance in recent years, and after an uptick in velocity last season he should be a more-than-capable eighth inning man who strikes hitters out and doesn't give up many walks. Kelvin Herrera has been a bullpen workhorse for the Royals in recent seasons, armed with a 100mph fastball that doesn't get him as many strikeouts as you would expect, his ability to keep the ball in the park works to the strength of his defense - he should be a useful asset again in 2016. 

Luke Hochevar's return from Tommy John surgery in 2015 was a little disappointing as the dominant stuff he had showcased in 2013 did not repeat itself, with a decline in strikeouts and some control issues. He remains a useful bullpen asset, but if he can find the magic of 2013 once again he would be one of the top relievers in the pen. Danny Duffy has been a serviceable starter for a while, but appears ready to be a part of the bullpen in 2016 where his stuff should play up as the primary left-hander and he could be in line for a huge season. Overall, the bullpen has an elite arm up top, depth in quality and considerable upside. It will once again be a strength for the Royals in 2016.

2016 Projection

There is not a lot different about this Royals team compared to the one that won 95 games in the regular season and then went on to be World Champs in 2015. Yet it's hard to buy into them repeating that success. The line-up has strength, but no elite slugger unless Lorenzo Cain repeats his fantastic 2015, and there are several below replacement level hitters who are going to damage this team's run scoring ability. The pitching staff isn't great, there's no clear number one, there are injury risks and there's not a lot of depth if guys struggle or get hurt. But all these things have been true of the Royals for three years now and they keep winning games. The small-ball tactics on offense where they steal bases, string hits together and put pressure on the opposition defence has continued to work well and guys like Hosmer, Moustakas and Gordon are underrated performers. 

The defense is absurdly good, all across the infield but especially in the outfield and there is undoubted value in Salvador Perez's super-human ability to catch 145 games a season. The bullpen looks likely to continue to be a real asset, Wade Davis is one of the best late-inning options in baseball and Soria, Herrera, Duffy and Hochevar round out one of the deepest groups in the American League. When I look at the roster in isolation it's hard to see them winning more than 81 games, but they've proven they can win despite not loading up the roster with conventional talent. And who am I to bet against the Royals Devil Magic? With Ned Yost at the helm, anything is possible.

Projected record: 90-72




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The AL Central will once again be a tough division to predict. All five teams have competitive rosters that should keep this division close deep into the season. Although the White Sox have one of the best rotations in baseball there are some real line-up weaknesses that could prevent this team from fulfilling its potential, although if Sale, Quintana and Rodon are as good as they can be it might not matter. The Twins have exciting young players, especially in Sano, Buxton and Berrios but 2016 feels a year too soon, even after their promising 2015 campaign. The Tigers have a potent line-up but there are question marks in the rotation with regards to health and in the bullpen with regards to effectiveness. They could blow away my projection and win 95 games but they could come last in the division for the second year in a row. The Indians rotation is loaded with high-upside arms that should strike out a whole bunch of hitters, but the line-up has question marks and the absence of Brantley could prove costly in early season contests. 

The Royals enter the year as champions and are hard to bet against, but on paper that line-up has a lot of weak spots and the rotation is paper thin. I think ultimately we're going to see a really close September division battle, and with two wildcard spots available too we may see teams missing out by one or two games. Predicting a winner is nearly impossible, but after their 2015 magic it would seem foolish to give the Royals any other mantle but favourite.

Monday 28 March 2016

2016 Division Previews: NL West

Welcome back to the 2016 division previews! After taking a look at the Western division in the American League in the last post, we move on to their National League counterparts today. In 2015, the division proved something of an anticlimax, as the much fancied Dodgers ran away with the division, winning 92 games and securing the NL West title by eight games. The Giants and D-Backs both fielded competitive teams but were ultimately well short of the wildcard race, whilst the Padres and especially Rockies struggled greatly. Heading into this season, the Dodgers once again are the favourites to win the division, although having won the World Series' in 2010, 2012 and 2014, the Giants will be hoping that the even year magic continues. The D-Backs made arguably the biggest splash of the off-season by acquiring Zack Greinke and they look set to compete this season, whilst the Padres and Rockies appear off the pace, but could they spring a surprise this year?

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Los Angeles Dodgers (92-70)

Projected Opening Day Line-up

No. Name Position Projected 2016 AVG/OBP/SLG
1 Carl Crawford LF .270/.311/.401
2 Howie Kendrick 2B .285/.328/.406
3 Justin Turner 3B .294/.358/.460
4 Adrian Gonzalez 1B .270/.330/.450
5 Yasiel Puig RF .276/.350/.471
6 Corey Seager SS .266/.311/.447
8 Yasmani Grandal C .233/.344/.416
9 Joc Pederson CF .220/.337/.414

Projected Opening Day Rotation

No. Name Projected 2016 Innings/Strikeouts/ERA
1 Clayton Kershaw 215/265/2.01
2 Kenta Maeda 177/162/3.20
3 Scott Kazmir 168/162/3.38
4 Alex Wood 169/139/3.74
5 Mike Bolsinger 143/134/3.84

This is a Dodgers line-up that is deep and full of impact talent. The Spring Training injury to Andre Ethier thrusts Carl Crawford into the spotlight as the everyday left-fielder against right-handed pitching, and Crawford will attempt to turn his miserable form over the past few seasons around. If he can cut down the strikeouts and draw a few more walks, he could at least be a reasonable stand in to start the year whilst Van Slyke handles lefties. Kendrick is reliable if unspectacular at second base, whilst the shocking rise of Justin Turner must be taken seriously after two superb seasons, and the ZiPS projections remain particularly bullish heading into 2016. Adrian Gonzalez is the epitome of consistency at the heart of the Dodger line-up, something that can not be said for right-field enigma Yasiel Puig. Puig struggled with injuries and off-the-field issues in 2015, but his talent on it is unquestionable. If he can focus on baseball he has all-star talent, but reports claim that the Dodgers patience is wearing thin. Corey Seager has drawn a lot of headlines as the number one prospect in baseball heading into this season, and he has a great chance to make a name for himself with the everyday job at shortstop. Joc Pederson flashed signs of brilliance in a tumultuous rookie campaign, but if he can strikeout a bit less then his patience, power and speed could make him a sneaky four-win player. The Dodgers line-up, especially when Ethier returns, boasts impact players from top-to-bottom, and if guys like Seager, Puig and Pederson could take a stride forward this easily has the making of the one of the top hitting teams in the Majors.

What more is there to say about Clayton Kershaw? He is the greatest pitcher on the planet, has been since 2011 really and seems only to be getting better - he posted a career best K/9 over 11 in 2016 on his way to the first 300 strikeout season since 2002. Oh and he just turned 28 last week. Kenta Maeda will be an intriguing pitcher to watch, especially to start the season as most reports don't see his stuff as plus but his command is special, although how quickly he adapts to the Majors will be important if he is going to serve as the number two starter. Scott Kazmir's 2015 season was a tale of two stories in Oakland and Houston, but in the National League I would expect him to bounce back well if he can stay healthy. The back-end of the rotation has been battered about in the pre-season, with Brett Anderson undergoing back surgery, Hyun-Jin Ryu's comeback delayed and Mike Bolsinger suffering a strained oblique, with Brandon McCarthy already out until mid-season on his comeback from Tommy John surgery. Alex Wood is healthy, but had limited success with the Dodgers last year as the hitters got used to his funky delivery, whilst Bolsinger will look to make the most of his rotation chance, as he was impressive in limited action in 2015 despite a sub-90mph fastball. The depth of this rotation will really be tested as the season goes on, although the return of Ryu could be a great shot in the arm at the end of April. Ultimately, the health of one man is all that matters though as Kershaw's brilliance on the mound makes him an ace and a number two starter all wrapped up in one precocious left arm.

The bullpen will be headlined by Kenley Jansen for the fourth straight season, and this consistency is one of the hallmarks of Jansen's game. Oh, along with strikeouts. Tons and tons of strikeouts. After another dominant 2015 campaign, I see no reason why Jansen won't prove one of the top ninth-inning options in the game again this season with his ridiculous mid-90's cutter mowing down line-ups across the National League. Chris Hatcher struggled in the first half of 2015 but was dominant after he returned from injury in August and should be the primary set-up man in the LA bullpen. Pedro Baez had a nice breakout season in 2015, armed with a 97mph fastball and he'll join lefty specialist Luis Avilan as two key pieces in the staff. Yimi Garcia, Carlos Frias and J.P. Howell appear poised to close out the bullpen, and though there are some weak spots beneath Jansen, the dominant right-hander's presence is enough to grade this 'pen out as at least solid, especially given the rotation strength in front of them.

2016 Projection

The Dodgers have been a popular World Series pick for several years now and 2016 is no different in that regard. The pieces are there for this team to make a deep pennant run, and it's hard to look past them for the division title although the retooled Giants and D-Backs will certainly have something to say. If the line-up can stay healthy and some of the young hitters make strides then this is a team that will score runs, whilst Kershaw leads a staff that assuming it can avoid more catastrophic injury luck has depth and talent. I think the Dodgers are the best shot at 100 wins in the division given the upside of their roster, but if the likes of Gonzalez, Kershaw and Jansen struggle this is suddenly a team lacking consistent star-power. If we're being honest though, such a scenario is almost impossible to imagine, pencil the Dodgers in for a fourth division title in as many years.

Projected record: 93-69



San Diego Padres (74-88)

Projected Opening Day Line-up

No. Name Position Projected 2016 AVG/OBP/SLG
1 Jon Jay LF .254/.331/.334
2 Cory Spangenberg 2B .260/.312/.399
3 Wil Myers 1B .259/.330/.431
4 Matt Kemp RF .261/.317/.421
5 Yangervis Solarte 3B .262/.313/.388
6 Derek Norris C .247/.318/.399
7 Alexei Ramirez SS .260/.290/.370
8 Melvin Upton CF .215/.287/.362

Projected Opening Day Rotation

No. Name Projected 2016 Innings/Strikeouts/ERA
1 James Shields 186/181/3.54
2 Andrew Cashner 156/128/3.87
3 Tyson Ross 178/182/3.24
4 Robbie Erlin 125/96/4.92
5 Colin Rea 119/88/4.25

The Padres line-up is a weird and wonderful mix of high-upside former top prospects and forgotten journeymen, but you have to really squint to see much to get excited about here. Jon Jay has shown an ability to hit and get on base but not much else - not an awful combination for a lead-off guy provided he is fully over his injuries. Spangenberg is in a similar mould, but without elite contact skills he might be hard pressed to repeat an impressive 2015 campaign. I still believe in Wil Myers raw ability, but his wrist issues make it very hard to trust him to stay on the field, whilst the new first base position poses its own challenges. Matt Kemp is easily the best bat on this team, and health providing could be in line for a monster season as he actually got unlucky on balls in play last year. I think he'll outperform that depressed ZiPS projection. Solarte had a nice year, and will be given every chance to make the third base position his whilst Derek Norris can mash lefties but struggles to get on base against right-handers. Melvin Upton had his best half-season in a while in 2015, but his strikeout woes are well documented whilst Alexei Ramirez appears to be struggling with age-related decline and needs a big season to revitalise his career. This team has some upside, especially in the heart of the line-up, but has a major problem getting on base and Kemp aside really lacks anyone who could remotely be considered a consistent star.

James Shields had a bizarre 2015 campaign, striking out way more hitters than he ever had previously but also walking too many and giving up a surprising number of home runs given his move to spacious Petco Park. Before that, he was one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball, and I think he should be given the benefit of the doubt for another solid year in 2016 - maybe not an ace but about as reliable a number two starter as they come. Andrew Cashner has always promised to put it all together, with a mid-90s fastball and several useable breaking pitches, but he gives up hard contact and struggles with walks and injuries. Maybe it'll click in 2016, but all signs point towards another solid but unspectacular year. Tyson Ross has been on the cusp of ace-hood since 2014, with one of the best sliders in baseball and he's a popular sleeper Cy Young pick early in the pre-season. Ultimately however, his control needs a little tinkering and the fastball/sinker combination doesn't have power to blow hitters away. Nonetheless, he is a fine number three who has considerable upside. After these three, the water is murkier as Erlin, Rea and Pomeranz battle for the final spots in the rotation. All three have some upside, but ultimately look like AAA players who could eat some innings but won't win many games single-handedly for this team. Innings-eating might be enough from the fourth and fifth starters, but on a rotation lacking a true ace there is very little upside at the back of this group. It's a serviceable group, with some quality at the front, but given the weakness of the line-up there could be very few wins spread between these three at the top of the rotation.

Fernando Rodney has something of a history for outrageous comebacks to relevance, with his magical 2012 season standing out like a sore thumb, but even the biggest Rodney believer (most likely Fernando himself) will find it hard to see much upside in the 39 year old this season. He'll start the year with the closer's gig and could ostensibly run away with it, but with reduced velocity diminishing the effectiveness of his hammer change-up, he likely won't replace Craig Kimbrel in terms of results. Kevin Quackenbush, owner of an elite name, is likely first in line should the Fernando Rodney experience prove too much for Padres leadership, and his 2015 season showed he can be at least a serviceable reliever, better home run luck would make him a good one. Brandon Maurer flashed an absurdly effective change-up in 2015, but his strikeout numbers remained pedestrian and despite rumours of his return to the rotation he will start 2016 attempting to turn his good raw stuff into an effective relief arsenal. Brandon Morrow's story is one of incredible promise but inevitable injury heartbreak, and despite some success out of the rotation last season he will likely start in the bullpen and attempt to get one (please, just one) healthy season under his belt. The stuff if there if the injury bug stays away. Nick Vincent is a reliable bullpen arm who will make up part of the late-inning contingency, whilst Cory Luebke, who hasn't thrown meaningful innings since an impressive 2011 season, will attempt to resurrect his career out of the pen. Rodney aside, this is a pen with some injury-prone upside and reasonably reliable right-handed options. It's not the weakest part of the team, but it's hardly a strength.

2016 Projection

A.J. Preller has proven himself a GM who absolutely loves a trade, and if the Padres are going to compete this season he is going to need to work some real magic at the negotiating table. This line-up is weak, likely the weakest in the division, and relies on the upside of players who have battled injuries or inconsistencies for several seasons. The rotation has a promising front three but falls off the table from there, whilst the bullpen has some interesting reclamation projects but lacks the power arms that could earn this team a few wins over the course of the season. The Kimbrel trade bolstered the farm somewhat, but there is little immediate impact to be found in the Minors, and so this is a team that hasn't committed to a rebuild but probably should. If everything goes right, the likes of Myers, Kemp and Upton will show off the potential they flashed in years past, whilst Cashner and Ross make the jump and become legitimate number one starters. Such a scenario is unlikely, and one where injuries plague a team that is full of broken stars and doom it to 100 losses appears just as likely. I'll split the difference, the Padres won't be a pushover but they're not going to contend in a competitive division.

Projected record: 73-89



San Francisco Giants (84-78)

Projected Opening Day Line-up
No. Name Position Projected 2016 AVG/OBP/SLG
1 Denard Span CF .280/.333/.387
2 Joe Panik 2B .277/.331/.383
3 Matt Duffy 3B .275/.322/.403
4 Buster Posey C .305/.368/.462
5 Hunter Pence RF .265/.320/.430
6 Brandon Crawford SS .249/.314/.408
7 Brandon Belt 1B .265/.340/.450
8 Angel Pagan LF .267/.311/.358

Projected Opening Day Rotation

No. Name Projected 2016 Innings/Strikeouts/ERA
1 Madison Bumgarner 210/216/2.70
2 Johnny Cueto 207/178/2.87
3 Jeff Samardzija 196/180/3.31
4 Jake Peavy 141/112/3.66
5 Matt Cain 102/83/4.25

The Giants line-up will be led by off-season acquisition Denard Span who has struggled with injuries in recent seasons, but if healthy is a solid contact hitter who may have some speed left in his legs. Joe Panik was an enormously impressive four-win player in just 100 games last season, and his elite contact skills and defense make him quietly one of the best second basemen in the league, if he can hit .300 with an OBP north of .350 again he could prove one of the biggest assets in the Giants line-up. Matt Duffy had a breakout season, doing a little bit of everything he showcased in 2014 on his way to a solid season with the bat, and whilst perhaps not a prototypical three-hitter, he's a solid option for the Giants. Buster Posey requires no analysis, as his position as the Majors' best catcher is unquestioned at this point. If he can get back to 20+ homer power he could make a run at MVP honors once again. Pence is in line for a big bounceback season assuming he can stay healthy, whilst Crawford is expected to regress from his monster 2015 by ZiPS but the power looked real and his defense has never been in question. Belt should have another solid season as a .280 hitter with 20+ bombs whilst Angel Pagan is really the only weak spot in a line-up that has a lot of impressive contact hitters. This is also a team that prides itself on elite defense, especially on the infield so there's a lot to like for Giants fans heading into this season on the offensive side of the diamond.

MadBum will once again lead the rotation, and after setting career bests in strikeout and walk rates it almost looks like he is getting better and better. At the age of just 26, it appears that only an injury could slow one of the most talented pitchers in the Majors. Johnny Cueto had a bizarre 2015 season, performing disastrously after his trade to the Royals before turning in several hit and miss starts in the post-season. He was rewarded with a huge contract by the Giants over the off-season, and his ERA since 2011 remains the second-best in the Majors. ZiPS likes him to rebound, especially in a spacious home-park with NL line-ups to face, but he will certainly be an interesting pitcher to watch in the early season action. Jeff Samardzija also struggled mightily last season, seeing a precipitous drop in strikeout rate whilst he was hit harder than ever before. He has the stuff and durability to be a solid number three starter, but he comes with a degree of volatility that may make Giants fans nervous. Jake Peavy appears to be declining rapidly as a top-flight starter, but if he's healthy he should at least be a solid innings-eater for the Giants and he has impressive results as an NL starter in recent years. Matt Cain has struggled with injuries and inconsistent results in previous seasons, but now fully healthy it will be interesting to see if he can rebound to his pre-2014 levels of performance. ZiPS doesn't like him to do so, and the stuff has almost certainly deteriorated so his rotation spot may come under threat at some point.

Santiago Casilla had a nice 2015 campaign as the Giants closer, increasing his strikeout rate on his way to 38 saves in the regular season. The job will once more be his to lose, but at age 35 and with questionable peripheral stats he will have to perform well right out of the gate to be the Giants ninth-inning man all year. Sergio Romo is perhaps the most recognisable name in the Giants 'pen, and he returned to dominating form in 2015, generating his most swings and misses since 2011 whilst trading some fly-balls for ground-balls and restricting the home runs that had plagued him in 2014. He's probably the most talented arm in this pen, with a wipeout slider that gives right-handed hitters fits, but he'll be the eighth-inning man, at least to start the year. Hunter Strickland is another talented right-hander, possessing a fastball that touches 100mph and at the age of 27 he could be expected to take another stride forward this season and become a reliable late-game option for Bruce Bochy. The retirement of Jeremy Affeldt may push left-hander Javier Lopez into more work as the primary southpaw in the bullpen, but having logged less than 40 innings over the past four years as a one-out guy, Lopez likely won't play a much larger role this year. Chris Heston will be the long-man in the bullpen as well as the first option should the rotation require patching up, and he had a very solid 2015 campaign that should make him a Yusmeiro Petit-esque option for the Giants. Overall, the bullpen is solid, with three quality right-handed options although perhaps a dearth of depth and stuff lower down. If the rotation can find the form it has been missing in Spring, this staff has more than enough quality to close out most leads.

2016 Projection

The Giants seemingly always field a competitive roster, and in Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner they have a superstar on the line-up and on the mound. The line-up is full of contact-first hitters who will be tough to strike out, and if the likes of Span, Pence and Pagan can bounce back it could actually be one of the more potent line-ups in the National League. On the bump, Bumgarner will once again be expected to shoulder a super-human workload, but if anyone can it is the talented leftie. Cueto and Samardzija both have considerable question marks over their performance but both should be poised to rebound from disappointing 2015 campaigns, whilst Peavy/Cain/Heston should be good for 400 solid innings between them, which is really all you can ask for at the back end. A new bullpen piece might be a target come the trade deadline, but in Romo the Giants have one of the best right-handed relief options in the game, so I see no reason why this bullpen can't be an asset for the team. Overall, the Giants have put a very solid team together, and assuming good health I see no reason why they can't push the Dodgers for the division but those rotation question marks mean they may have to settle for a wildcard race.

Projected record: 85-77



Colorado Rockies (68-94)

Projected Opening Day Line-up

No. Name Position Projected 2016 AVG/OBP/SLG
1 Charlie Blackmon CF .285/.336/.438
2 D.J. LeMahieu 2B .287/.335/.382
3 Carlos Gonzalez LF .274/.332/.528
4 Nolan Arenado 3B .287/.324/.530
5 Gerardo Parra RF .292/.335/.422
6 Ben Paulsen 1B .260/.313/.451
7 Nick Hundley C .274/.316/.427
8 Trevor Story SS .244/.308/.441

Projected Opening Day Rotation

No. Name Projected 2016 Innings/Strikeouts/ERA
1 Jorge De La Rosa 143/112/4.22
2 Chad Bettis 139/114/4.55
3 Jordan Lyles 107/69/4.66
4 Tyler Chatwood 53/38/4.61
5 Jon Gray 141/118/4.49

The Rockies line-up is always a tough one to judge, as Coors Field can make even the most average of hitter look impressive with the high altitude contributing to impressive home run rates and the spacious outfields almost guaranteeing a high average on balls in play. Charlie Blackmon has been accused of being a product of Coors, but his ability to put the ball in play, get on base and then steal a bag once he is there has stood up over two seasons now. D.J. LeMahieu is an elite defensive second baseman, and his high-contact approach at the plate has also been highly effective in recent seasons, although it's a fairly empty average. Carlos Gonzalez has one of the prettiest swings in baseball, but his increasingly alarming platoon splits should really prevent him from being an everyday player. Arenado is one of the most talented third basemen in the game today, an incredibly gifted defender who was an offensive monster last season, piling up 89 extra-base hits and 130 RBI. He rarely takes a walk, restricting his on-base value, but he's a rare shining beacon of hope in this desolate Rockies team. Parra was a big off-season signing who should provide four wins of value through his above average offense and great defense, but Ben Paulsen and Nick Hundley are both starkly average players who will rely on Coors-inflated stat-lines. Jose Reyes' impending court sentence and possible suspension will likely rule him out at least the start of the season, allowing the Rockies to have a look at long-time prospect Trevor Story who has slowed his production as he gets closer to the Majors but remains the presumed long-term replacement for Troy Tulowitzki.

Jorge De La Rosa is a solid starting pitcher, but a far cry from an ace, and whilst a healthy season from him would be a huge boost for the Rockies, he isn't going to be able to carry this staff. Chad Bettis was a pleasant 2015 surprise for Colorado, piling up a decent number of strikeouts and groundballs which is basically all you can do at Coors, but he is projected to regress by ZiPS this season. Jordan Lyles has seemingly been around for ages, but at age 25 he remains young. Unfortunately, he has never been a particularly good or healthy starter, and whilst the high groundball rate is promising, a full season of work will likely expose some flaws in the young right-handers arsenal. Tyler Chatwood has thrown just 34 innings in professional baseball since 2013, and whilst he was a useful pitcher back then, it remains a massive question mark as to how healthy he can be, how productive his stuff is and how many innings he can offer this team over the course of the season. Young flamethrower Jon Gray is an exciting prospect for Rockies fans, and whilst his 2015 statistics weren't eye-popping, the peripheral strikeout and walk statistics show that he has the stuff to last in the Majors. His development in 2016 will be vitally important for the future of the rotation, especially considering how weak this 2015 version is.

Colorado made a big splash in the off-season trade market by sending talented outfielder Corey Dickerson over to Tampa Bay in exchange for quality lefty reliever Jake McGee. McGee appears poised to start the season as the Rockies closer, and his elite strikeout rate will make him a viable option, even if a few more fly balls leave the park at Coors Field. Jason Motte was another free agent acquisition, and though Motte is no longer the potent strikeout weapon he was several years ago, if he is fully healthy he should be a reliable late-inning option for the Rockies. Chad Qualls was also acquired in the off-season, and is a bog standard reliever who likely will not provide the Rockies with much more than innings-eating skills, although the high ground-ball rate makes him a better fit for Coors than many other pitchers. After a disastrous 2014 campaign, Boone Logan bounced back somewhat in 2015, although in the last year of a three-year deal he would have to have some kind of 2016 season to represent any kind of value on that contract. At this point, he appears to be a lefty specialist in the Rockies' pen assuming he can stay on the field, and whilst that gives him more impressive strikeout rates and reduces the home run bug that struck him two years ago, it gives him limited value in this group. Miguel Castro was one of the key pieces in the Troy Tulowitzki trade and he may be given a chance in relief at some point this season, although Colorado would be wise to at least try and utilise him as a starter considering the elite stuff he flashed in 2014. 

2016 Projection

The Rockies have a few exciting players in their line-up, most notably in the form of young third baseman Nolan Arenado who is must-watch TV at the plate and in the field. Unfortunately, the line-up also contains several overpaid veterans with limited ceilings, and although the return of Reyes will ensure this is a high-scoring offense, it doesn't appear that it will be enough to carry this team to many victories. The rotation is, as always, a mess, with a couple of solid innings-eaters attempting to lead the way and a lot of ground-ball first guys who are set to struggle considerably in the unforgiving Colorado climate, as well as a number of injury risks. Jon Gray has a bright future, and the Rockies need to prioritise his development this season, although guys like De La Rosa and Bettis could generate some trade value with strong first-halves. The bullpen is hardly lights out, but in McGee they at least have a solid ninth-inning arm, although at Coors any fly ball pitcher is at risk of imploding. Simply put, this is a team in need of a rebuild, and the pitiful return for Troy Tulowitzki was not a good way to go about achieving that. Guys like Gonzalez, Blackmon and De La Rosa are going to be heavily shopped come the deadline, and whilst some exciting action is sure to come out of Coors this season it could be a while until Denver gets to see post-season baseball once again.

Projected record: 69-93




Arizona Diamondbacks (79-83)

Projected Opening Day Line-up

No. Name Position Projected 2016 AVG/OBP/SLG
1 Jean Segura 2B .267/.300/.361
2 A.J. Pollock CF .293/.345/.461
3 Paul Goldschmidt 1B .288/.397/.523
4 David Peralta RF .293/.347/.485
5 Welington Castillo C .249/.314/.418
6 Jake Lamb 3B .247/.314/.390
7 Socrates Brito LF .259/.287/.382
8 Nick Ahmed SS .243/.287/.354

Projected Opening Day Rotation

No. Name Projected 2016 Innings/Strikeouts/ERA
1 Zack Greinke 191/174/2.78
2 Shelby Miller 185/156/3.65
3 Patrick Corbin 129/105/3.71
4 Robbie Ray 152/143/3.86
5 Rubby De La Rosa 163/132/4.36

The D-Backs line-up stands out as a real stars and scrubs project, with some incredible talent at the heart of it but some real black holes lower down. Jean Segura appears set to start the season as the lead-off hitter, although Chris Owings will be breathing down his neck. Segura has been awful with the bat ever since his amazing half-a-season in 2013, unable to sustain a high average and totally averse to drawing even a single walk. With his speed also on the decline, he really shouldn't be in with a shot at the lead-off job but brainless decisions are nothing new for the Diamondbacks. A.J. Pollock was simply fantastic last season, mashing 19 home runs and stealing 40 bases, and ZiPS likes him to put up a fairly similar season in 2016. Paul Goldschmidt is maybe the most consistent hitter in baseball, an incredible study in offense who is sure to have another MVP calibre season as the league's best first baseman. David Peralta's meteoric rise has continued unabated with a fantastic 2015 campaign, and ZiPS is extremely bullish on his projection for the coming season. After these three superstars, things begin to fall apart. Castillo has good right-handed pop but little else, Lamb and Brito are both promising youngsters that will likely face a year of development and adjustments, whilst Nick Ahmed is a glove-first shortstop who appears to face an uphill battle to post an OBP north of .300. There is of course some upside to these players - this is a young line-up entering its peak in the next few years - but considering the talent at the heart of the team, the supporting cast feel like a bit of a let down.

Zack Greinke was the biggest name to move this off-season after an unbelievable 2015 campaign, and it was something of a shock when he landed on the Diamondbacks. Regression from the ERA well under 2 is to be expected, but 200 more ace-like innings seems guaranteed for the consistent right-hander. Shelby Miller appears poised for some regression of his own, especially considering the homer-prone Chase Field he now starts half of his games at. A newly developed change-up and increased strikeout rates provide cause for optimism however, and the D-Backs will be hoping for another big year for the young righty. Patrick Corbin provided just about the dream return from Tommy John surgery, with increased fastball velocity and even improved command. His innings will almost certainly be limited, but if he can stay healthy he has number one starter upside and will be a fascinating pitcher to watch in the early season proceedings. Robbie Ray had a nice 2015 campaign, and enters 2016 aged just 24. If he can cut the walk rate, he could be in for a huge season as his platoon splits are off-set by his plus changeup. Rubby De La Rosa has been a very hyped and very disappointing starter for several seasons now, and though the 95mph fastball and hard breaking slider provide reasons for optimism, I would have to see a full season of results from him before I believe it. As the number five starter though, he has undoubted upside. Zack Godley and Archie Bradley provide depth, although the latter's 2015 struggles have rather tampered his upside from his top prospect status several seasons ago.

Brad Ziegler had a fantastic 2015 season, saving 30 games with a 1.85 ERA, all despite striking out just 36 in 68 innings. The reason was his superb groundball rate of 73% thanks to his hard sinking submarine action which limits fly-balls and encourages double plays. He'll lead the D-Backs bullpen once again, and though the low rate of strikeouts suggests regression, if he can continue his knack for inducing ground balls then there is no reason he can't be successful. Tyler Clippard is almost the polar opposite of Ziegler - his pitiful 2015 groundball rate of 21.2% was worst in the Majors - but he is a similarly effective reliever thanks to a devastating change-up. Although not quite as good in 2015 as he was the year before, he remains a top option at the back end of games, and even if a few more fly balls leave the yard in cosy Chase Field, his strikeout propensity makes him a consistent performer regardless of the team. Daniel Hudson made a wonderful return from three years of injuries in 2015 as an elite relief option in the Arizona 'pen and he looks set to continue that role in 2016. A few less walks and more BABIP/home run luck could see him make the jump to elite relief option. Andrew Chafin will be the primary lefty in the pen, whilst Josh Collmenter and Randall Delgado are more than capable long-relief/spot start options for the D-Backs. The bullpen isn't elite, but it has depth and talented arms, which assuming the rotation is improved from last season is all that will be required.

2016 Projection

I'm quietly optimistic about this Diamondbacks team. In Goldschmidt they have a legitimate MVP candidate, whilst Pollock and Peralta are both good bets to put up quiet four-win seasons or more in the outfield. The rest of the line-up has question marks, but if one or more of the likes of Segura, Owings, Ahmed, Lamb and Brito can make the step-up and outperform expectations this has the making of a team that can score a lot of runs. Quietly, they outscored the Dodgers in 2015. The rotation was a bit of a mess last season (Collmenter was opening day starter) but in the front office's defense they have gone out and changed that with the Greinke and Miller acquisitions whilst the dominating return of Corbin bodes very well for both his and the team's future. If the front five in that squad can stay healthy, that could be a strong rotation in a division that boasts considerable pitching depth. Chip Hale hasn't proved himself a particularly talented manager, and the D-Backs have a weird obsession with making terrible personnel decisions but the talent on this roster is adequate to compete for the division. With the Dodgers and Giants also at full strength, it's almost certain that one of the three teams will disappoint but Arizona has the talent to compete all the way into September. I think they'll have a big year.

Projected record: 89-73




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The NL West is lining up to be a fascinating and competitive division in 2016 with at least three teams in line for a record above .500. The Dodgers remain the team to beat, with a potent line-up and shockingly deep pitching staff but the Giants have a loaded roster and the D-Backs have some star players who could take this team to their first playoff berth since 2011. The Rockies look set for another season at the bottom of the division, and if the team struggles in the first half expect a real clearance of the talent on the roster around the trade deadline. At this point, the team may as well go into full rebuild mode and retool with some high draft picks as they did in 2015. The Padres continue to insist on a pretence of competitiveness, but a line-up stuffed with high-risk players and a rotation with very little depth leaves much to be desired. Ultimately, any of the top three teams could run away with this division making it very hard to predict, but the Dodgers just have too much talent on both sides of the field not to be favourites. I think the Giants rotation could be its undoing, although Cueto and Samardzija are both not long removed from four-win seasons. The D-Backs are a real enigma - they could win anything between 75 and 95 games - but ultimately I think this is the beginning of the window for a young team with a lot of upside. It could be one year too early for a group of players that are still learning on the go. Here's hoping for some crucial September tilts, a narrative where Kershaw, Greinke and Bumgarner are leading their respective teams to the division crown would be some kind of story to follow.