Sunday 30 December 2012

Early 2013 Power Rankings

Still a devastatingly long 4 months until the regular season is up and running once more, but as always I will refuse to be silenced by the lack of action on the field. With 2012 almost over, it is time for my early 'power-rankings' in which I will rank every Major League team from 1-30. As always there will be areas for disagreement and without a doubt these rankings will change between now and opening day.

1. Washington Nationals

Having lead the league with 98 wins last season, Washington have done nothing but improve their team so far this off-season. The one-year acquisition of Haren was a no-lose decision, and if Haren can give them 200 strong innings he will further bolster their chances at repeating. The trade for Denard Span solved the center-field and lead-off hitter problems and the likelihood that Bryce Harper will improve makes their line-up ever-more enticing to go with the return of underrated catcher Wilson Ramos. The chance of 800 innings from Strasburg, Gonzalez, Zimmermann and Haren make this team too strong to ignore at number 1.

2. Toronto Blue Jays

At this point, the 2012 season becomes irrelevant for the Blue Jays. They will be fielding an entirely different line-up and rotation in 2013, and will be fielding one of the best in the Majors at that. The lopsided trade with the Marlins allowed them to get their hands on two rotation work-horses (Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle) as well as one of the top lead-off hitters in the game (Jose Reyes). Jose Bautista will return from injury, Edwin Encarnacion will look to improve on a break-out 2012, Brett Lawrie looks set to put up huge numbers and Melky Cabrera will have a point to prove after a controversy-filled season. The rotation will be stud-filled with Johnson, Buehrle, Dickey, Brandon Morrow and Ricky Romero. They are the team to beat in the American League.

3. Cincinatti Reds

A 97-win team in 2012 and the acquisition of Shin-Soo Choo fills a void they struggled with this year at the lead-off spot. Votto will do what Votto does, Brandon Phillips was outstanding this season and Jay Bruce should continue to be strong in hitter-friendly GABP. Johnny Cueto is coming off the back of a Cy-calibre season and Mat Latos should improve. If it is successful, the move of Chapman from bullpen to rotation could be devastating and make the rotation one of the finest in the major-leagues. The Reds look very strong indeed.

4. Detroit Tigers

They arguably have the best hitter and best pitcher in baseball, but the team runs much deeper than just a pair of studs. A deep rotation featuring Verlander, Scherzer, Fister and the re-acquired Anibal Sanchez should be dominant in the AL Central and a line-up that underwhelmed in 2012 will be bolstered by Torii Hunter and Victor Martinez. Should cruise to another Central title (have I heard that before?)

5. San Francisco Giants

This is a really hard team to rank. They warrant a great deal of respect for winning 2 World Series titles in 3 years and having basically spent the off-season so far ensuring they have the same roster next season they are a good bet to repeat. However, I have doubts. Lincecum and Zito are still not great in their rotation despite excellent post-seasons, Marco Scutaro will not continue to hit .360 and the lynchpin of their line-up Buster Posey looks set to regress a little after his MVP season. However, the rotation is still enviable with Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner and Ryan Vogelsong heading it up, and I expect Brandon Belt to finally start to be a big impact bat in this line-up. Write them off at your peril.

6. Los Angeles Dodgers

Another team that is hard to rank, but the team just has the kind of depth GM's dream about. The acquisition of Greinke immediately propels the rotation towards one of the best in the NL, but the depth behind him and Kershaw is outstanding. Young Korean left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu is a bit of an enigma, but the Dodgers will be hoping he can provide the kind of impact Yu Darvish did for the Rangers. Behind him is the lambasted Josh Beckett and Chad Billingsley, but the Dodgers still have Ted Lilly, Chris Capuano and Aaron Harang to provide help. The line-up is full of potential with Adrian Gonzalez, Hanley Ramirez, Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier to be joined later in the season by Carl Crawford.

7. Atlanta Braves

The Braves were quietly excellent in 2012, winning 94 games and falling foul of the infield fly rule in the wildcard game with St Louis. Jason Heyward lived up to the hype that surrounded him as a rookie, and the further development of first-baseman Freddie Freeman gave the Braves plenty to look forward to. The off-season acquisition of B.J. Upton replaces Michael Bourn atop the line-up and young Andrelton Simmons looked superb in his short taste of big league action. The rotation received a massive boost with the dominance of Kris Medlen, and he should continue that excellence next season. Mike Minor, Brandon Beachy, Tim Hudson and Paul Maholm complete a strong rotation, whilst Craig Kimbrel should enjoy another dominant season in the 'pen.

8. Texas Rangers

Having claimed it would have a busy off-season, Texas has been disappointing so far in its exploits, losing Josh Hamilton and failing to find his replacement. Yu Darvish was superb in 2012, but the back-end of the rotation is full of question marks and a heavy burden will be on the shoulders of Adrian Beltre to provide the fire-power this line-up needs. Bounce-back seasons should be expected from Nelson Cruz and Ian Kinsler, although the Rangers are still to find a spot in the line-up for young sensation Jurickson Profar. The Rangers look one big arm and one big bat shy of being a dominant force once again.

9. Los Angeles Angels

As always, hype has been huge surrounding the Angels this off-season, as they once again stole the show with a swoop for Josh Hamilton. The idea of an Angels line-up based on himself, Pujols and Trout is enticing, but question marks surrounding Mark Trumbo and the departure of Kendrys Morales means the line-up is not very deep at all. After Jered Weaver, this is a team with little to show for in the rotation although the recent trade for Vargas shows that management want to fix that and C.J. Wilson should bounce back after a thoroughly disappointing 2012 season. This is a team with a lot of potential but a lot of holes.

10. St Louis Cardinals

Another team that is tough to predict, the Cardinals boast a line-up that is full of potential, especially if outfielders Carlos Beltran and Matt Holliday continue to hit well. Furcal and Molina both appear to have turned corners with the bat, and David Freese and Allen Craig are both potent bats. The rotation has a useful mix of experience and youth, as Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright will be workhorses and Shelby Miller and Trevor Rosenthal will push for rotation spots after superb bullpen work at the end of the 2012 season.

11. Tampa Bay Rays

This is a team that went 90-72 last season and was unfortunate to miss out on a play-off spot. The loss of B.J. Upton and James Shields will hurt, but Wil Myers is an outstanding hitting prospect and a rotation featuring Cy-Young winner David Price, Jeremy Hellickson and Matt Moore still has the potential to win a lot of games. Evan Longoria is back from injury and primed for an MVP season, Desmond Jennings should finally meet his potential and Ben Zobrist will continue to fly under the radar as a superb hitter. I like them a lot this season.

12. Oakland Athletics

The surprise package of the 2012 season, the Athletics showed that the young rotation could provide results sooner than anyone expected. An outfield packed with potential in Crisp, Reddick and Cespedes, the acquisition of Chris Young makes this team even stronger at the plate although the infield looks very weak indeed. The rotation took a hit with the exit of Brandon McCarthy but a front three of Milone/Parker/Anderson could prove to be stronger than expected. This team is no weaker than it was in 2012, so expect more magic in Oakland.

13. Arizona Diamondbacks

A team that always seems to be in contention, the D-Backs have had a wild off-season. The recent acquisition of Cody Ross adds another big name to a packed outfield that includes Justin Upton, Gerardo Parra, Jason Kubel and Adam Eaton. The infield is quietly good, with Cliff Pennington brought in to keep the seat warm for newly acquired Didi Gregorius. The rotation looks extremely strong despite the exit of Trevor Bauer, with Brandon McCarthy joining Ian Kennedy, Wade Miley, Trevor Cahill, Daniel Hudson, Patrick Corbin and Tyler Skaggs. Arizona has a huge number of pieces it could deal in the out-field, so I expect their line-up to change between now and opening day. This is a team that could be an outside bet for a big year though.

14. New York Yankees

No, I haven't forgotten about them, I just think they look extremely weak at the moment. Cano is the only reliable bat in the line-up, with Teixeira struggling and Granderson's K-rate rising to astronomic levels. Ichiro is on a down-ward slope and will likely be replaced at the lead-off spot by the returning Gardner. Sabathia and Kuroda are strong at the front of the rotation, but Pettite, Hughes and Nova do not inspire confidence at the back-end and the successful return of Rivera in the bullpen is not a certainty. They'll probably rise up my list as we head towards opening day, but this is a team with a lot of problems.

15. Milwaukee Brewers

Surprising as it may seem, the Brewers scored the most runs in the National League last season, despite the loss of Prince Fielder. They have been quiet during the off-season so far, as early rumours linking them to Hamilton proved fruitless. The outfield is quietly superb, with Braun, Aoki and the suddenly powerful Carlos Gomez playing superb defense and giving the line-up great depth. The corner infielders are strong, with both Aramis Ramirez and Corey Hart set to take advantage of Miller Field's friendly confines. Jean Segura is a good young player and Rickie Weeks should bounce back. In the rotation, they look weak behind Gallardo which holds them back, but if the bullpen can get over the 2012 horror-show they could turn some heads.

16. Boston Red Sox

Fresh off their worst season since 1965, the Red Sox has been revamped so far this off-season. The additions of Victorino and Napoli gives the line-up a shot in the arm, and Pedroia, Ellsbury and Middlebrooks will look to be big contributors. The rotation is flakey, with the suddenly hapless Jon Lester supported by Clay Buchholz, Felix Doubront and John Lackey. The addition of Joel Hanrahan gives the bullpen depth, but this team has a long way to go if it wants to compete.

17. Kansas City Royals

Although their trade for James Shields hurts them a lot in the long run, there is no denying it helps them a lot in the short run. Still a lot of question-marks in the rotation though, Ervin Santana needs to be his second-half self and Jeremy Guthrie is not an elite number 2. The loss of Wil Myers may hurt them in the out-field though, as Francoeur's production continues to slide. This team is going to need immense production from Hosmer, Moustakas and Salvador Perez if it wants to challenge for a play-off spot.

18. Philadelphia Phillies

The only reason they rank this high is because of their lights-out rotation. However, as Cliff Lee's record last season showed, dominant pitching is only as good as the hitting behind it. An outfield of Darin Ruf, Ben Revere and Domonic Brown inspires no confidence whatsoever, and the cornerstones of the offense Ryan Howard and Chase Utley appear to be past their prime. Having Michael Young playing 3rd won't help either. Need to pull off a big move before I see them contending.

19. Baltimore Orioles

This is perhaps a harsh ranking considering the Orioles have basically kept the exact same roster that won 93 games last season and took them to the brink of an ALCS showing. As has been pointed out by many however, the Orioles won so many games last season on the back of an astonishingly good bullpen and a unnerving capacity to win one-run or extra-inning games. I don't think that is a trait that can be learnt and repeated, and a rotation with no ace and a line-up that is highly dependent on the production of Adam Jones could be in for a rough season. This is the ranking I feel least confident about however.

20. Cleveland Indians

They won just 68 games last season, but I love the moves they have undertaken so far in the off-season. The rotation is still sketchy, with Masterson erratic and Ubaldo Jimenez struggling a lot. But Jason Kipnis and Carlos Santana lead a good core of young hitters that has been bolstered by the additions of Mark Reynolds and Drew Stubbs although the loss of Shin-Soo Choo will be hard to replace. The bullpen is also very strong, and whilst I think the Indians are at least a year or two away from competing, they are moving in the right direction.

21. Chicago White Sox

Again, this ranking may seem harsh after they pushed Detroit all the way this season, but the brutal truth is that they finished 4 games above .500 despite receiving a good deal of unlikely and probably unrepeatable production. Chris Sale is a legitimate ace and the retention of Jake Peavy was vital. The lower half of the rotation is questionable however, and I expect players like Alex Rios and Alejandro de Aza to struggle more after surprise 2012 breakouts. I just don't see this team competing with Detroit at all.

22. San Diego Padres

A surprise 76-win team in 2012, this young squad looked capable of fighting it out with the best towards the rear-end of the season. However, the young rotation still lacks any big names with Clayton Richard heading Edinson Volquez and Eric Stults. Andrew Cashner has an electric fastball but struggled to control it at times in 2012, and at spacious Petco, the Padres can ill-afford a leaky rotation. Chase Headley looked the real deal in 2012, and the Padres have done well to hold onto him, he should get some support from the likes of Carlos Quentin, Cameron Maybin and Yonder Alonso. Like with a lot of these young teams however, I expect them to fall short in the highly competitive NL West.

23. Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have made some shrewd moves so far this off-season and a rotation featuring Edwin Jackson, Jeff Samardzija and Matt Garza could be competitive. There are bright spots at the plate too, with Starlin Castro on the verge of breakout, Anthony Rizzo delivering on his lofty expectations after his call-up last season and Alfonso Soriano continuing an impressive renaissance. Beyond them, however, the team is extremely lacking in power bats, and whilst they could win more games than you think, they are still way short of a play-off spot.

24. Pittsburgh Pirates

Still lacking an ace, or anything that resembles an ace and the loss of Hanrahan is unlikely to make the 'pen any stronger. Unless James McDonald can pitch the whole 2013 season as he did the first few months of 2012 the Pirates will be shipping far too many runs to contend, and a line-up with no-one other than Andrew McCutchen is going to struggle to keep up. Another what-if season for the Pirates.

25. Seattle Mariners

Looked for a big bat all off-season and were only able to get the waning production of Kendrys Morales in exchange for 200 innings out of the rotation. Another young team that looked good at times in 2012, King Felix has a useful number 2 behind him in Iwakuma but unless players like Jesus Montero, Dustin Ackley and  Justin Smoak can fulfil their potential it will be another season of struggle in the tough AL West. Their outfield is just paper thin.

26. Minnesota Twins

The worst team in a terrible division last season, and the acquisition of Vance Worley fails to fill the most obvious hole for the Twins which is the need for an ace. Josh Willingham is unlikely to continue his power surge, and Joe Mauer is probably going to be traded by the deadline, this team is a long way shy of being competitive.

27. New York Mets

Their 2015 rotation looks enviable, but unfortunately for Mets fans, the 2013 version still includes Frank Francisco and no R.A. Dickey. David Wright and Ike Davis are the only bright spots in the line-up for the Mets who may choose to bring enticing catching prospect Travis D'Arnaud up sooner rather than later. The only bright spot they'll have this season is the ability to beat up on the team next on this list.

28. Miami Marlins

This time last season, the Marlins were a new team, with the off-season acquisitions of Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle. This time the only reason to continue watching them is Giancarlo Stanton who will literally be forced to be the entire offensive output for this woeful team. The rotation has a few bright spots, but this is a team that will be playing with unhappy players in an empty stadium, maybe they'll rebuild again next season.

29. Colorado Rockies

Only due to the offensive prowess of Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez do the Rockies avoid the ignominy of being last on this list. There were some bright young players for Colorado in 2012, and Josh Rutledge, Wilin Rosario and Tyler Colvin will look to build off that. Unfortunately, the rotation still looks appalling and will be forced to play every other game at hitters paradise Coors Field.

30. Houston Astros

This franchise has been reborn in the off-season, with new uniforms, logos and mascots to match the new division. Unfortunately, the Astros will be the whipping boys of the AL West and look set for another season of trying to avoid being the worst team in baseball.

Saturday 8 December 2012

Fantasy: Pitcher Rankings

With the men standing at the plate sorted out in yesterday's blog post, let's now turn out attention to those atop the mound, 60 feet away. Pitchers tend to be separated into starting pitchers and relief pitchers in fantasy, so I'll give you my top 50 starters and top 20 relievers along with why I've ranked them where I have.

First up, the work-horses of a baseball team: the starting pitchers

1. Justin Verlander
2. Clayton Kershaw
3. Stephen Strasburg
4. Felix Hernandez
5. David Price
6. Matt Cain
7. Cliff Lee
8. Cole Hamels
9. Zack Greinke
10. Jered Weaver

A formidable top 10. Any of these guys will serve as an excellent ace of both your fantasy rotation and their respective team's rotation. I've gone with Verlander as number 1 overall because of his insane consistency. He's thrown over 200 innings in each of the past 6 seasons and has just become better and better through those seasons. This years stats were extremely comparable to his 2011 MVP performance, and there is no better bet in baseball for 250 strikeouts, 15 wins, an ERA under 3 and WHIP under 1.1. Draft him with absolute confidence. King Felix, Kershaw and an innings-cap free Strasburg should all be fantastic in 2012, and David Price will have no problem backing up his Cy-Young winning season with another dominant year atop the Tampa Bay rotation.

Matt Cain rightly earns his spot at 6th with a downright dominant year for San Francisco, the ERA and WHIP were minuscule and the increasing strikeouts make him a legitimate fantasy number 1. Cliff Lee had a freakish year in the 'win' column, but otherwise his performances were as good as they always are. Greinke, Hamels and Weaver should continue to be dominant aces for their respective teams, although I do think they are a drop-off in consistency from the top 7.

11. Johnny Cueto
12. Madison Bumgarner
13. R.A. Dickey
14. C.C. Sabathia
15. Yu Darvish
16. Chris Sale
17. Kris Medlen
18. Matt Moore
19. Max Scherzer
20. Adam Wainwright

Cueto had a dominant 2012 season, but pitching in a horrible home park pushes him outside my top 10. Young southpaw Madison Bumgarner had another excellent season for San Francisco, and at the age of just 23 he's still improving. Dickey is likely to regress a little, but as a knuckle-ball pitcher he is as immune to the effects of age as anyone, so don't be scared that last year was a fluke. Sabathia will continue to be a workhorse for the Yankees whilst Matt Moore should put together a fine campaign for Tampa Bay as strike-outs will come easily but he needs to get better at getting ahead in the count - the astronomic .389 BAA on a 0-0 count is cause for concern.

Darvish, Sale and Medlen are all pitchers I expect to push on from excellent 2012 seasons. Darvish and Sale have age and astonishing strikeout rates on their side, whilst Medlen's pinpoint accuracy is arguably the best in the major leagues. Scherzer could be a valuable sleeper in many leagues this year, his post all-star stats were on a par with rotation-mate Verlander, and it was only a horrific April performance that ruined his overall stats. He'll once again challenge for the Major League high in strikeouts.

21. Mat Latos
22. James Shields
23. Yovani Gallardo
24. Jordan Zimmermann
25. Roy Halladay
26. Jake Peavy
27. Aroldis Chapman
28. Hiroki Kuroda
29. Doug Fister
30. Brett Anderson

Latos should find a bit more consistency in the hitter-friendly confines of GABP this season, although his large spike in home runs last season from 16 to 25 is something owners will have to live with as a product of the stadium. Shields will be productive wherever he is playing, whilst Gallardo should be a consistent strikeout producer, even if you do have to live with the occasional shocking outing. Jordan Zimmermann had a quietly excellent season for the Nationals last season meaning he could go unnoticed in drafts. The strike-outs aren't elite, but his astonishing tendency to get out of trouble (.308 batting average against with none on/none out but .165 with men on and 2 outs or .105 with a man on 3rd and less than 2 outs) is a key asset. Finally Roy Halladay struggled at the back end of last season, and his diminished velocity is cause for concern.

I expect Peavy to regress after a sensational 2012 season, but he still obviously holds value. Chapman would be a bit of an enigma if he joins the rotation as expected, but you can be sure he'll strike-out a ton. I think they'll limit his innings if he does start, but if last year is anything to go by then he could have extraordinary numbers. Kuroda and Fister were both quietly excellent in 2012, and could be steals in the draft whilst others go after big name players. Brett Anderson showed glimpses of brilliance after returning from injury, and whilst the injury and lack of strikeouts are cause for concern, his immaculate control should mean cold slumps are a rarity.

31. Brandon Morrow
32. Wade Miley
33. Josh Johnson
34. Ian Kennedy
35. Ryan Vogelsong
36. Dan Haren
37. Anibal Sanchez
38. Derek Holland
39. Jeremy Hellickson
40. Jon Lester

I'm all in on Brandon Morrow next season. After struggles with injury in his first few seasons, then a struggle with consistency, Morrow was putting it all together last year until an injury once again plagued him and kept him out for half the year. The strikeouts are a given with Morrow, and I think his control is greatly increased meaning the ERA should stay at a reasonable level. Miley had a superb season, but I don't expect him to repeat and Josh Johnson should find a modicum of consistency with the Blue Jays. Vogelsong continues to be a revelation in fantasy, with his ERA remaining one of the best in the Major Leagues.

Haren should bounce back with the Nationals this year, although if you're expecting a repeat of 2011 you may be disappointed. Sanchez had an excellent stretch with the Tigers, but he is still erratic and as such will struggle with some poor performances that dampen the brilliance of others. Holland and Hellickson are both talented young pitchers who should win as many games as they lose and help you out with ERA and WHIP. Hellickson is a bit of a gamble, because he has no strikeouts to fall back on if hitters start picking the change-up. Lester can't do much worse than last season, although his seemingly nonchalant attitude to his poor performances last season leave a lot to be desired.

41. Jarrod Parker
42. C.J. Wilson
43. Jonathon Niese
44. Matt Harrison
45. Tim Lincecum
46. Edwin Jackson
47. Jeff Samardzija
48. Trevor Cahill
49. Tommy Hanson
50. James McDonald

Parker was superb despite being given the pressure of the no.1 spot in a rookie-filled Oakland rotation, and he should be able to carry that success into 2013. C.J. Wilson had a season to forget in 2012, and whilst I don't think the inconsistency problems will be easy to shake off he could be a late-round sleeper. Matt Harrison's upside is limited due to the lack of strikeouts, but he continues to be extremely efficient for the Rangers and is a good late pick. Lincecum continues to be someone I'd stay away from despite his post-season success from the bullpen. He just isn't the same pitcher as he was three years ago, and two seasons of woeful performances have persuaded me he is nothing more than a gamble this year.

Jackson and Samardzija are both heavy on strikeouts but have little consistency, and whilst they may be worth a gamble they are far from reliable. Cahill and Hanson should have solid seasons, but as always they are liable to a bad performance or two. James McDonald had a disastrous second half, but makes my list by virtue of his pre all-star break performances - if he can reconjure some of that magic he could yet be fantasy relevant.

And with a long list of starters out of the way, we can move on to relievers

1. Craig Kimbrel
2. Aroldis Chapman
3. Jonathan Papelbon
4. Fernando Rodney
5. Sergio Romo
6. Rafael Soriano
7. Joel Hanrahan
8. Greg Holland
9. Huston Street
10. Casey Janssen
11. Addison Reed
12. Jason Grilli
13. Brandon League
14. Mariano Rivera
15. Ryan Madson
16. Jason Motte
17. J.J. Putz
18. Brian Wilson
19. John Axford
20. Carlos Marmol

Craig Kimbrel is the clear number 1, but after his massive 2012 campaign and recent reinstatement in the closer role, Chapman has just as much upside. Papelbon earns number 3 on my chart because of his history, but last season was a big disappointment for him. Fernando Rodney will regress but still be a shutdown closer in my opinion. Sergio Romo has the potential to be an absolute stud with that deadly slider, although the rumours about an innings limit are slightly worrying.

Rafael Soriano will get plenty of opportunities in Washington, although he has two quality relievers breathing down his neck. Joel Hanrahan has struggled with command in recent seasons, but should have a reasonably tight grip on the job in Boston. Greg Holland proved he has the stuff and the mettle to be an efficient 9th inning man for the Royals whilst Huston Street looks dominant every time he avoids the DL - maybe this year he avoids it completely. Casey Janssen was superb as the fill-in closer last year, and seems to have the job in front of Sergio Santos.

Addison Reed should improve with experience, and Jason Grilli will finally get a chance at the ninth inning after making himself a dominant set-up man. Brandon League is a good reliever, but one slip-up may see him replaced by the much more effective Kenley Jansen. Rivera is a high risk pick after the injury this year, but I would love to see him back on the mound baffling hitters in what will likely be his final season. The new Angel Ryan Madson closes out the top 15, although with Ernesto Frieri waiting in the wings his leash may be extremely short in Anaheim.

Motte may have ranked in the top five on this list were it not for a pre-season injury that has him possibly thinking about season-ending surgery. Putz always seems one blown save away from losing his job before pulling it all back together, although he undoubtedly has the stuff to get a lot of strikeouts. Wilson needs to find a job before becoming fantasy relevant again, and after a full season with no work he is a definite risk. One year removed from being one of the top closers in baseball, Axford was simply horrible this year as he blew save after save for the Brewers. His stuff suggests he should turn that around. Marmol closes out my list because he currently has the job in Chicago, but he may be traded to a team with a better closer or dropped in favour of Fujikawa at any moment.


So, there you have it. Looking back I may have got some of the placements wrong, but hopefully you get an idea of which kind of guys I like more than usual and which I would stay well away from. Some similar articles to come in the new year I hope, and if anything big happens from a free agent or trade standpoint then I'll be sure to post my opinions. As always, comments are welcome!

Friday 7 December 2012

Fantasy: Hitter Rankings

One of the reasons I love baseball is the pure length of the season. I'm a big football, rugby and NFL fan too, but all those sports have small seasons with games at the weekend. Although they are more physically demanding sports, the same kind of commitment, perseverance and sheer fluctuations are not close to those in the world of Major League Baseball. Unfortunately, even with 162 games + a month of post-season action, you're still left with the depressing off-season over winter. Fortunately, I'm able to spend that time fantasising about free agency, trades and now fantasy baseball.

I've tried hard not to write any blog posts on fantasy, because I consider it a bit cheap and a bit easy. But then I remember that there are people who's jobs are based on fantasy sports - people I respect and have a lot of time for like Matthew Berry and Eric Karabell. So, I figured that nothing would block out the bitter cold from outside more than compiling a few lists. At each position I'll list the top 10 players and then briefly explain why they are in that order, and go through some notable inclusions or exemptions.

So, first off the board is catcher, arguably the most demanding position in all of sport

1. Buster Posey
2. Carlos Santana
3. Yadier Molina
4. Joe Mauer
5. Matt Wieters
6. Miguel Montero
7. Mike Napoli
8. Salvador Perez
9. Wilin Rosario
10. Jesus Montero

No surprises at number one, as Buster Posey will be a popular draft-day target in fantasy leagues coming off the back of an incredible MVP season. After that, I should point out, there is a significant drop-off. I simply don't feel confident at catcher this season, and not only because the position is so fragile in terms of injuries. Any between 2 and arguably 7 could warrant consideration to be the second catcher off the board. Santana struggled through the first half of 2012, before finishing off the season on a high. Molina was superb, and it's only by virtue of the fact defensive stats are not applicable to fantasy baseball that he is not higher. I'm not a big Joe Mauer fan, because his power is non-existent and he looks like he'll be playing in a weak Minnesota line-up. He should still be a good bet for a .300 average and 80 RBI/runs but temper any 2010 repeat expectations. 

Napoli struggled this year, but is still an excellent bet for 20 homers with the Green Monster to aim for. I rate Salvador Perez extremely highly. He had a stonking 88.7% contact rate which means a high average is extremely sustainable and he has hit well over .300 in every year of his minor league career. He is well built so I think the power will come, and a season at the heart of an improving Royals line-up could provide superb mid-round value. Wilin Rosario had a big 2012 for the Rockies, cranking a team rookie record 28 home runs. He's a big boy, and the power is legit, but I'm not as keen on him as some might be. Unlike Perez, he has an extremely high strikeout rate, and if teams start feeding him more breaking pitches the average might plummet. He's still got insane power potential though, so if you need home runs from your back-stop look no further. Montero struggled a bit in 2012 with a new team, but with the walls coming in at Safeco and him being given more time to accommodate to major league pitching I expect a solid season from the young hitter.

First base is a position usually associated with great depth, but that simply isn't the case this year...

1. Joey Votto
2. Prince Fielder
3. Albert Pujols
4. Edwin Encarnacion
5. Billy Butler
6. Adrian Gonzalez
7. Allen Craig
8. Freddie Freeman
9. Paul Goldschmidt
10. Eric Hosmer

Typically a position with superb depth, first base is a weak position in 2013, particularly if you want consistency. The top three are all interchangeable in my opinion, I expect Votto will continue to be dominant, hitting for a high average, drawing walks and knocking out homers at will. Whilst I expect Fielder's power to increase next season, I don't think the .300 average is particularly sustainable although the 30 homers and 100 RBI are exactly what you want from a first baseman. Pujols should put up his usual stat line, but a regression in average seems likely and 30 home runs rather than 40 is what to expect. After the first three there is a significant drop-off in my opinion, and I would place Buster Posey at 4th if I was including catchers with 1B eligibility. Encarnacion's power is legitimate, although a slight regression is probably in order particularly in batting average. A year in that suddenly strong Blue Jays line-up will do no harm though. Butler proved last year that he can hit balls over the fence as well as into them - he might be easier to get than most on this list too due to being criminally underrated because of his DHing in my opinion.

Adrian Gonzalez continues to be an enigma - he continues to hit solidly for .300 every season and the power surges he sometimes has only serves to make the dry streaks more maddening. The Dodgers line-up looks stronger than ever next season, so I expect him to put up solid numbers. Freeman, Goldschmidt and Craig are all guys who have significant upside - Craig crushed the ball when healthy last year, Goldschmidt is primed for a breakout (and he has speed) and Freeman will be playing in a stronger line-up than ever. Hosmer can be placed with guys like Ike Davis, Anthony Rizzo and Adam LaRoche in a group of high-risk, high-reward players. I like Hosmer to bounce back in a big way this year, so he makes my top 10.

And now moving on to the traditionally weak second base

1. Robinson Cano
2. Ian Kinsler
3. Dustin Pedroia
4. Brandon Phillips
5. Aaron Hill
6. Ben Zobrist
7. Jason Kipnis
8. Jose Altuve
9. Rickie Weeks
10. Chase Utley

Again, there is a clear division at this position. Robinson Cano is number 1 here - and it's not even close. Despite getting off to a poor start, Cano soon picked up and once again became the most consistent second base in the Major Leagues - oh and did I mention he's missed just 12 games over the last 6 seasons combined. Preference really determines who you pick next. Although Kinsler struggled in 2012 I've gone for him because of his power/speed potential. The poor average appears to be something you'll have to live with. Pedroia struggled with injuries a bit this year, but the average is just so reliable around .300 and his 20 homer/20 steal potential never hurts. After that it's a bit of a gamble. Phillips was fantastic for the Reds when Votto went down injured and he provided help in every fantasy category meaning he garners 4th spot. Aaron Hill was actually 2nd in fantasy points at 2B this year, and the only reason he isn't higher is because this is the first time power and average have combined for him.

Zobrist is another reliable fantasy performer, although he's been unable to match his breakout 2009. He won't hit more than 20 homers, steal more than 20 bases or hit for an average higher than .300. But at the same time there is no surer bet in baseball for 15 homers, 15 steals and a .280 average and his positional eligibility makes him attractive too. Kipnis is someone I'd avoid if possible. He provides great stats in the stolen base department, but hit just .257 with 3 homers combined in July, August and September. Altuve has great speed, but he's literally the only major league quality hitter in that line-up. Weeks has significant bounce back potential but that average could be an absolute killer. Utley might be primed for one more big season as the Phillies look to defy the age barrier.

So, on to another position of typical scarcity: shortstop

1. Troy Tulowitzki
2. Jose Reyes
3. Hanley Ramirez
4. Starlin Castro
5. Ian Desmond
6. Elvis Andrus
7. Asdrubal Cabrera
8. Alcides Escobar
9. Jimmy Rollins
10. Derek Jeter

Tulowitzki only played 47 games this year and he didn't set the world alight in the limited time he had. I know, this is a big risk, but in my opinion it is a risk well worth taking.  I still wouldn't take Tulowitzki until the second round, but I think he could be underrated because of this year. Across the three seasons before his low in average was .297 and in home runs was 27. Very few players, never mind short-stops in baseball can match that, so if Tulo can stay on the field for 150 games (not a given) he'll finish as the number 1 short-stop no doubt. That upside is so big, I'm willing to take the injury risk. The next 4 are pretty obvious, Castro is set for a big year and I think Desmond is another potentially underrated player - the power is completely legitimate although I don't know if he'll be so consistent.

As I've said, I think the Rangers would be wise to trade Andrus, although from a fantasy viewpoint staying at the top of their line-up is critical because steals and runs are pretty much his only commodities. I've never been a big Asdrubal Cabrera believer and I think last seasons 16 home runs are what to expect, not the freakish 25 from the year before. Escobar basically provides the same stats as Andrus but at a far cheaper price and both Rollins and Jeter are likely to regress but not enough to take them out of fantasy relevance assuming they stay injury free.

And, to complete the infield we head over to third base

1. Miguel Cabrera
2. Evan Longoria
3. Adrian Beltre
4. David Wright
5. Ryan Zimmerman
6. Chase Headley
7. Hanley Ramirez
8. Brett Lawire
9. Pablo Sandoval
10. Aramis Ramirez

Unlike the other infield positions, third base is once again very deep this year. Of course a repeat of his triple crown season is unlikely for Cabrera, but the fact remains that he is the best pure hitter in baseball. He will hit for a .300 average, 35 home runs, 115 RBI and he'll probably have change to spare too. Have no qualms drafting him number 1. I'm taking Longoria 2 despite the injury concerns, because I think he has an MVP season in him somewhere along the line and I'm going to want to ride it when it happens. Beltre is as consistent as they get at the hot corner, and Wright gets the nod over Zimmerman because of his consistency and surprising stolen base production.

This is where you know third base is deep, because MVP candidate Chase Headley is still on the board. Another criminally overrated player, I would have no hesitation before taking him over a big name like Ramirez. Spacious Petco limits his production, and I think 31 homers are unlikely to repeat, but Headley's performance this year was no fluke. Ramirez is another player I'd be happy to leave alone. His work rate is poor meaning he doesn't beat out ground balls he should, and he tends to get into frustrating slumps. He'll probably end up with 20 homers and 20 steals, but the average is going down and his temperament is not good. Lawrie is someone I preferred to leave alone with all the hype this season, but his speed/power combo contains a lot of upside so go after him this year. Don't overpay because of Sandoval's post-season performances, but if he can stay healthy all year he could turn a lot of heads.

So, now we turn it over to the outfield, which is obviously a lot deeper so I'll give you my top 30.

1. Mike Trout
2. Ryan Braun
3. Matt Kemp
4. Andrew McCutchen
5. Carlos Gonzalez
6. Giancarlo Stanton
7. Jose Bautista
8. Jason Heyward
9. Josh Hamilton
10. Justin Upton
11. Adam Jones
12. Matt Holliday
13. Austin Jackson
14. B.J. Upton
15. Yoenis Cespedes
16. Michael Bourn
17. Jay Bruce
18. Curtis Granderson
19. Jacoby Ellsbury
20. Bryce Harper
21. Shin-Soo Choo
22. Carlos Gomez
23. Josh Willingham
24. Alex Rios
25. Andre Ethier
26. Carlos Beltran
27. Nelson Cruz
28. Michael Morse
29. Josh Reddick
30. Melky Cabrera

Numbers 1 and 2 are clearly interchangeable on this list, I've gone with Trout because of the incredible power/speed/average potential although if you're expecting a 2012 repeat you may be a little disappointed. Don't be tempted to choose a sexy pick like McCutchen or Heyward over Braun - Braun is as consistent a player as they come and has proven he can hit 40 homers with or without Prince Fielder. Stanton is one to watch for me, his power potential is simply staggering. I expect Carlos Gonzalez to bounce back from a bit of a power drop in 2012 with the return of Troy Tulowitzki and he might drop down a few draft boards. Despite an injury-plagued season, Jose Bautista remains a top option, so again don't be scared to draft him. Temper expectations on Hamilton - in fact avoid if possible regardless of where he ends up. The way he ended the season left a sour taste in my mouth, although as always if he can stay on the field he will hit 30+ homers - just be prepared for icy cold droughts.

The second tier is a mix of high-upside and reliable guys. Again, Matt Holliday is not a popular pick that will have fellow draftees crowing in your genius, but he can win fantasy leagues with his reliability. The average is always above .290 and the home run totals always catch you by surprise. He'll be criminally underrated on draft day, don't miss out on him. I expect Justin Upton to bounce back, although I won't be spending a really early pick on him. Cespedes, B.J. Upton and Austin Jackson are all guys who could easily finish the season in the top 10, so are potentially bargains if you manage to predict which one has a monster season. Two guys I would avoid if possible are in the low teens - Ellsbury and Granderson. Ellsbury was dire even when on the field last season, and rumours the Red Sox are trying to sell him doesn't inspire confidence. Granderson is an astonishing beneficiary of the right field porch at Yankee Stadium, but his strikeout rate just continues to rise (195 this year) so the average could be a killer. Don't like that the steals have dropped off the table either.

Bryce Harper probably stands out at 20, but as he showed in glimpses this year he's simply a phenomenal talent. I think it'll take a couple of years for the average to come round and the strike-outs to fall, but his power is undoubtedly an asset and he's a risk worth taking if you want some pop. Choo is another 'boring' pick, someone from the Ben Zobrist school of baseball with reliability in the steals, power and average department but the distinct lack of upside. Rios will not repeat his 2012 season, but still provides a lot of value, as does Carlos Beltran who's skills may be fading but his 32 homers this year are certainly not to be sniffed at. Cruz and Ethier offer upside as bounce-back candidates, whilst I've begrudgingly included Melky Cabrera on this list because I think he'll help you out in a lot of categories atop a suddenly strong Blue Jays line-up.


So, there you have it. My 7th December hitters rankings and early thoughts. Not a whole lot that is off-the-wall, but probably a few areas to dispute over, so obviously comment below if you disagree or heck, maybe even agree!

Pitchers to come at some stage over the weekend I hope.

Thursday 6 December 2012

3 Trades That Make Sense

Free agency has begun at quite a rate in the Major Leagues, and this years winter meetings promise to be as exciting as ever. Several free-agents have begun to move off the board, with B.J. Upton signing in Atlanta, Mike Napoli and Shane Victorino joining the Red Sox and the Nationals securing a one-year deal with Dan Haren. However, it is not just free agent signings that will be taking place this off-season. Trades are always hot-topic, and during the off-season this is no different. Some trades clearly benefit both sides whilst some leave fans and players alike scratching their head (ahem Marlins/Blue Jays). So which trades would make sense this off-season?

1. The Texas Rangers trade Elvis Andrus to the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for Justin Upton

This trade makes sense in my eyes for a number of reasons. Firstly, the Texas Rangers have top prospect Jurickson Profar playing elite short-stop at AAA, and scouts generally consider him major-league ready. The small glimpse we got of Profar in September last year was certainly enticing, and I'm willing to believe that he would not be much a of a downgrade at all with the bat in the Rangers line-up. They need to make room for him somehow, although whether they would prefer to deal away second baseman Ian Kinsler remains to be seen. Secondly, with the possible exit of Josh Hamilton (though I do think the Rangers will keep him), Texas will need an impact bat to slot into it's line-up. Upton had a down year in 2012, but he's still young and has incredible 5-tool potential. He'd be an immediate upgrade to the Ranger line-up. For the Diamondbacks, this fills a large hole at a shallow position at SS, and also creates room in their out-field for young star Adam Eaton. There has also reportedly been a dispute with Upton over his maturity, although the D-Backs maintain he is a key cog in their line-up. The Rangers have publicly said they will not be trading away either short-stop for Upton, but in my opinion (and especially if they are unable to sign Hamilton) the trade makes sense.

2. The Philadelphia Phillies trade Vance Worley to the Colorado Rockies in exchange for Dexter Fowler

As a Colorado fan I don't really love this trade, but it makes sense from a baseball viewpoint. I expect the Phillies to go hard after Bourn, but this trade may well be seen as a cheaper one - Fowler is under team control for another 3 years. Coming off the back of his best year in the Majors with a .300 clip from the lead-off spot, Fowler is one of the top players in the Rockies organisation, but they need starting pitching desperately. Worley is probably at the peak of his trade value, although he still provides excellent value for the Rockies and would help an ailing rotation. Fowler's home/road splits provide reason for concern, although the Reds are also said to be interested in securing his CF services.

3. The Minnesota Twins trade Josh Willingham to the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for James Shields

Having secured themselves a SS in Yunel Escobar, the Rays are still on the hunt for an impact bat to firm up their line-up. They have a plethora of pitching, and though Josh Willingham has just come off a career-year for the Twins, James Shields would likely be a pitcher of a calibre high enough to pique their interest. Aged 30, Shields is younger than you would expect for a pitcher with well over 1300 innings logged including 200+ over the past 6 seasons. He is extremely durable, and more recently has become one of the top pitchers in the American League, although he is said to be one of the most likely players to be traded this off-season. It is likely and maybe even possible that Shields ends up being traded away for a group of prospects, but this trade appears to answer immediate needs for both teams.