Winter Plans: Minnesota Twins

The 2014 Story

The Twins remain firmly in rebuild mode, with a bunch of below-average starters and a line-up that is inconsistent, although potent on it's day. It's 62-82 record currently leaves it on target to have a top five pick heading into next years draft which will be a bonus for a team that has a decent number of young players filtering up to the Major League level, and should be able to compete as soon as 2016 or 17. Brian Dozier has been a bright spot on offense, going 20/20 from the second base position, although he has slowed down since the all star break. Phil Hughes has proven to be an astute signing for the Twins, as he has cut his walk rate down to one of the best in the league, and his fly ball tendencies have held up much more favourably in expansive Target Field than in Yankee Stadium. With no other starter able to post an ERA lower than 4.27 however, this has been another disappointing year for Twins fans.

Major Potential Free Agents

Jared Burton ($3.6m option, $200k buyout)

The Twins have a pretty young roster, and the veterans they do have are locked up to long term deals. Burton hasn't had a great 2014 campaign, so it seems unlikely the Twins will exercise this option with their closer Glen Perkins locked up for the foreseeable future.

Off-Season Plan

Hitting: The Twins locked up Kurt Suzuki for the next couple of years a few weeks ago, and so he will presumably share time with Josmil Pinto in 2015. Pinto has shown flashes of offensive ability while Suzuki is a known asset so those two will be at least replacement level for the Twins. Joe Mauer's battles with injury have moved him out from behind the plate, but even at first base he has struggled to stay on the field and his bat has suffered as a consequence. The $23m a year contract he's signed to looks worse and worse every season, but the Twins will continue to roll him out at first base in 2015. Dozier will continue at second base as he remains pre-arbitration while Danny Santana has impressed enough at shortstop to continue there in 2015, with Eduardo Escobar a useful utility guy. Trevor Plouffe will be arbitration eligible once again but should remain at third base for the Twins as the bridge to uber-prospect Miguel Sano who has missed the entire season with Tommy John surgery but could see the Majors by the end of 2015.

In the outfield, Oswaldo Arcia has enough power and promise to be given the right field job once again, but a 30% strikeout rate and .576 OPS against left-handers suggests there are many areas of improvement for the 23 year old left-hander. Aaron Hicks elite walk rate and outstanding center field defense suggests he has a future in the Majors, although with non-existent power this season he remains a long way from the promise he showed as a prospect. With Byron Buxton battling injuries this season, his arrival in Minnesota has been delayed, likely until 2016 but he will be the future face of the franchise. The Twins have holes in left field and at designated hitter, but may choose to go with internal options like Jordan Schafer and Kennys Vargas in order to see what they have for the future, although a veteran signing like Nori Aoki or Jonny Gomes isn't out of the question.

Pitching: Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco will both return, signed to long term deals, while Kyle Gibson has shown enough flashes of potential to have an opening day rotation spot all but secured. Tommy Milone was an intriguing acquisition, not least because his skillset should thrive in spacious Target Field, so he should get a chance to be the teams primary left-handed starter provided he impresses in Spring Training. With both Trevor May and Alex Meyer having impressive seasons in AAA however, the Twins may choose to give their young players a chance in the hope they can turn into front-of-the-rotation starters by the time the Twins are looking to compete. Some bullpen arms like Matt Belisle, Ronald Belisario and Luke Hochevar may be pursued through free agency, but it seems highly unlikely that the Twins will make a major splash.

Trade Possibilities

The Twins have an outstanding farm system, but looking to build for the future, it would make no sense to deal away from that strength. Instead, they may look to deal veterans like Kurt Suzuki, Brian Dozier and Phil Hughes in an attempt to gain more young talent. Obviously they would love to get out of the Joe Mauer contract, but no team will want to take him on, and as the face of the team management wouldn't want to deal him away, as much as it makes sense from a baseball standpoint. Brian Dozier would earn a lot of interest on the trade market from teams like the Athletics, Orioles and Giants and if the Twins could get one of the Orioles big three pitching prospects or Andrew Susac from the Giants they should definitely pull the trigger. Phil Hughes has built up a lot of trade value with his impressive season and team-friendly contract, and so if the Twins can grab a couple of solid prospects they should be open to dealing him away.

Overview

The Twins are in full-on rebuild mode, and they have the farm system to make it work. They should give auditions to as many young players as possible in 2015, and look to deal away veterans when they can. With another solid draft class and some clever deals and signings, the Twins could be AL Central favourites by 2018, with the backbone of a dynasty.

Winter Plans: Detroit Tigers

The 2014 Story

The perennial AL Central favourites, the Tigers entered the season as World Series favourites in some peoples eyes, and their mid-season acquisition of David Price seemed to confirm they were the team to beat in the American League. However, things haven't quite gone entirely to plan. The KC Royals have spoiled the party since late July and with just 19 games left in the regular season, they are currently set to miss out on the play-offs altogether. KC has a two game lead in the division, although with a massive series starting today at Comerica that could all change very quickly. Meanwhile, the AL West currently has two wildcard teams in the A's and M's, so the Tigers are no surefire play-off team. Miguel Cabrera has been unable to replicate his MVP form, while Justin Verlander has lost the stuff that made him a top-of-the-rotation starter. Victor Martinez and Max Scherzer are both having monster years, but with both set to hit free agency, it could be a matter of now or never for this group of Tigers.

Major Potential Free Agents

Alex Avila, C
Torii Hunter, OF
Victor Martinez, 1B/DH
Max Scherzer, SP

There are a few major losses for the Tigers to deal with this Winter, with the most notable being AL Cy Young winner Max Scherzer who has followed up his tremendous 2013 performance with a superb 2014 campaign. He should earn himself a huge payday in free agency, and with $168m already guaranteed to Verlander through 2019, it seems unlikely the Tigers will have the resources to retain his services. I'm not really sure what the status of Alex Avila's contract is, as his vesting option for 2015 won't be met but the Tigers may be able to work out a deal as they did before the 2014 season at a decent discount. Both Hunter and Martinez are old players who have lost most of their value in the field, but Martinez has been one of the AL's best hitters this season, and his departure will leave a big void in the Detroit line-up.

Off-Season Plan

Hitting: If the Tigers do indeed allow Avila to walk, that will leave them a hole at catcher. 24 year old James McCann has had two straight good seasons at AA and AAA and is refined enough behind the plate to be given a chance in an everyday role next season, although the Tigers may choose to pursue the likes of David Ross or Geovany Soto as at least an insurance option. Cabrera and Kinsler are both locked up long term, while 2015 will see the return of Jose Iglesias who impressed with his magic glovework in 2013 and will presumably be given a chance once again to start everyday. In the outfield is where the Tigers will need to improve. With Austin Jackson departing via trade and Torii Hunter hitting free agency, the Tigers are more grateful than ever to have profited from the breakout of J.D. Martinez who has had a massive year with the Tigers, slashing .306/.351/.543 and looks like a steal for Detroit. Rajai Davis is under contract for 2015 but would ideally be used in a platoon, whilst the Tigers still need an everyday center fielder and DH.

An intriguing option for the Tigers would be Colby Rasmus, who has never managed to live up to his lofty expectations as a prospect. After a breakout 2013, Rasmus has taken a huge step back this season, striking out in nearly a third of his plate appearances and not even playing great defense in the outfield. B.J. Upton serves as an eerily similar comparison that will scare teams off, but if the Tigers can sign him to a 3 year deal without ridiculous money he's worth a gamble, with 5 WAR upside and platoon with Davis downside. Michael Cuddyer could be a nice option for the Tigers, as he can play right field and first base, and would give them a hitter with similar contact abilities to Torii Hunter. The likes of Jason Kubel, Jonny Gomes and Kendrys Morales all serve as DH options on the market who could play some games in the field too.

Pitching: The Tigers have five top quality starters in their rotation, and arguably they have the worst of the four locked up to the most expensive deal. Verlander will continue in their rotation, hopefully with some improved form as it is presumed he is battling some kind of injury this year. David Price has one more year of arbitration left and will spend it in Detroit unless the Tigers are out of the running by July and choose to deal him. Max Scherzer will depart and Drew Smyly has already moved to Tampa Bay, leaving the Tigers looking a bit more vulnerable for the future than they did to start the season, but if Anibal Sanchez can return to full strength from injury and Rick Porcello continues to improve, there will only be one spot up for grabs in 2015. Robbie Ray has been disappointing between AAA and the Majors so far this season, but Dave Dombrowski gave up Doug Fister to acquire him, so he will presumably be given another next shot in 2015. Alternatively, Kyle Lobstein has impressed in his short stint at the back end of the season. It's unlikely the Tigers will make a big splash in free agency, with extending Price probably a preferred option, but the likes of James Shields and Jon Lester would vault them into the best rotation in baseball conversations should they wish to go in that direction.

The bullpen is seemingly a weakness every season for Detroit, in stark contrast to the incredible success Kansas City has enjoyed. Joe Nathan is under contract for 2015, but hasn't been at his sharpest this season with a 5.04 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. Joba Chamberlain has been strong for Detroit this season but will hit free agency, while Phil Coke will also depart having served as the teams primary left hander for the past two years. The Tigers will have to make a few dips into free agency to bolster the 'pen, and the likes of David Robertson or Casey Janssen would be great additions, albeit at a hefty price. Luke Gregerson and Burke Badenhop represent alternative solutions that may come at a lower price, but I will be shocked if the Tigers don't acquire at least one top-end reliever through free agency.

Trade Possibilities

As he proved last winter by dealing Fielder and Fister, Dave Dombrowski isn't scared of pulling the trigger on big trades, but trying to predict them is an almost impossible task. With the fourth largest payroll in the Majors, there isn't a whole lot of room for salary flexibility, although with $26m leaving the team in the form of Victor Martinez and Torii Hunter, he could yet make a splash in free agency or via trade. The farm system has been somewhat ravaged by a series of trades and free agent signings, and looks set to compete for bottom spot in most team rankings, so Dombrowski doesn't have a lot of young talent to dangle in front of other teams. If they are willing to take on more money then either Matt Kemp or Andre Ethier could be acquired from the Dodgers without giving up much talent, but it's tough to imagine the Tigers would want to cripple the payroll with another large contract.

Overview

The Tigers have one of the most talented rosters in the Majors, and the departures of some key players this Winter isn't likely to change that fact. Dombrowski will be busy in free agency, and another blockbuster trade is never out of the question. However, with a lot of money locked up in older players, the window for the Tigers may be getting smaller, so they will have to be wary of keeping half an eye on the future too, to avoid finding themselves in a similar position to the Phillies three or four years down the line.

Winter Plans: Kansas City Royals

The 2014 Story

After remaining competitive for most of 2013 before fading down the stretch, the Royals were wary of making the same mistake this season. And thus far, they've done everything in their power to avoid it. They went on a magical run in late July and early August, winning 15 of 20 and storming from a .500 record on July 23rd, seven games back of the AL Central lead to a 72-56 record on August 23rd and a three game lead in the Central. They also played host to one of the great stories in baseball this season, and now have playoff odds rated at greater than 80% by the ESPN odds tracker. Alex Gordon has been the team's MVP, with his resurgent bat and mind-boggling defense in left field, but the most noticeable contribution has come from the bullpen. Their top three arms - Greg Holland, Wade Davis and Kelvin Herrera - have combined for a 1.21 ERA in 178 innings with 224 strikeouts. For comparison sake, Clayton Kershaw's numbers in the same categories are 1.70/169/202. This is a ridiculously good 'pen.

Major Potential Free Agents

Billy Butler, 1B/DH ($12.5m option, $1m buyout)
Norichika Aoki, OF
James Shields, SP
Wade Davis, RP ($7m team option)
Luke Hochevar, RP

The Royals see a few pretty major departures from the big league club this off-season, and face a couple of tough decisions. The Wil Myers/James Shields trade has been analysed ad finitum, but it's safe to say it hasn't backfired as spectacularly as some experts expected. Shields has been everything KC could have wanted in his two seasons with them, and should earn himself a decent payday. Aoki has been a useful left-handed outfielder who will be tough to replace, and Luke Hochevar was unfortunate to suffer a second torn ACL this pre-season after dominating out of the bullpen in 2013. The Wade Davis decision has been made tricky after his spectacular 2014 campaign, but $7m for an 80 inning reliever isn't good value for money so it would shock me if KC exercised their option. Billy Butler has declined at the plate and never really grown into the power we expected, and with no value in the field I expect KC to let him hit free agency too.

Off-Season Plan

Hitting: The Royals signed young backstop Salvador Perez to a long, cheap deal in the off-season, and based on his performances in the Majors so far they got incredible value. They may need to sign a back-up as Kratz will be arbitration eligible, but with plenty of options on the market that shouldn't be hard to do. Hosmer and Moustakas have struggled with injuries and inconsistency in equal measures, but will presumably be given further chances to reach their potential next season. The middle infield will once again be covered by Infante and Escobar, with Christian Colon likely serving a utility role. Gordon and Cain will cover left and center field, with Dyson serving as an excellent platoon option and pinch runner, but the new right field hole will need filling, preferably with a right-handed bat. Nelson Cruz is an expensive option, whilst someone like Delmon Young represents a cheaper but less skilled choice. With the DH role also open, the Royals could chase an option like Kendrys Morales, Victor Martinez or Corey Hart to help bolster the line-up, but they will have to pay accordingly.

Pitching: The Royals are stacked with quality young arms, both at the Major League level and in the minors. The loss of Shields will leave them without an ace, and though I'd love to see them chase a frontline starter like Shields, Lester or Scherzer in free agency it seems unlikely they would have the salary flexibility to do so. Brandon McCarthy, Ryan Vogelsong or a reunion with Ervin Santana are cheaper right-handed options they could turn to. Jason Vargas is signed for 2015, and will join youngsters Yordano Ventura and Danny Duffy who have impressed mightily so far this year. Jeremy Guthrie isn't a great option, but as the number five he's a solid choice who can chew some innings and throw a quality start when needed. Kyle Zimmer would have been ready to enter the rotation, but having struggled with injury for almost all of this season he'll need further seasoning in the Minors, at least to start 2015. If the Royals decide he's close then they may not make such an expensive dip into free agency, as he has huge number one starter upside. The Royals will need a few new bullpen options to support Holland, but they seem to have a knack for churning out great relief arms so that shouldn't be tough for Dayton Moore and co.

Trade Possibilities

With a fairly loaded minor league system, the Royals do have the option to trade for help. The Reds will likely look to shop a starter like Cueto or Latos, and the Royals could choose to pursue that option rather than free agency although they may have to give up Zimmer or Mondesi. To fill the spare outfield spot they could look into a trade with the Dodgers, whilst Alcides Escobar may be dealt at some point in 2015 to make room for Raul Mondesi who has impressed in the minors.

Overview

The Royals have a roster devoid of superstars but full of players that can help make a championship team. If Alex Gordon continues to perform at his MVP level, Eric Hosmer takes the jump we all expected and the young rotation continues to improve this could be a sleeper team for 2015 and beyond. With a significant amount of money leaving the payroll this winter, it would shock me if the Royals weren't active in the free agent market, and as he showed in the James Shields trade, Dayton Moore isn't afraid to give up young talent in order to win now.

Winter Plans: Cleveland Indians

The 2014 Story

In 2013, Cleveland had a superb season, winning 92 games and earning themselves a spot in the one-and-done wildcard game. With few changes made over the Winter, it wasn't outrageous to expect them to challenge in the AL Central again, but with a month left to go, their chances at the post-season are getting thinner and thinner. Five games back of the wildcard, it would take something like a 15-5 streak over the next few weeks to see the Indians sneak past the Tigers, Blue Jays and Yankees and steal that second wildcard berth. The Indians have enjoyed a monster season from Michael Brantley, who has used his sweet line drive swing to great effect slashing .312/.370/.496 with 18 home runs, and has undoubtedly been the MVP of the team. Jason Kipnis has disappointed after a big 2013 campaign, whilst Carlos Santana has warmed up after an awful start at the plate and a failed project at third base. Corey Kluber has come out of nowhere to be a legitimate Cy Young candidate, striking out a batter an inning on his way to a career best 2.58 ERA. However, with the post-season looking unlikely, this may be another lost season for a franchise on the cusp of competing.

Major Potential Free Agents

Mike Aviles, INF ($3.5m option, $250k buyout)

The Indians roster is actually nicely set up, with a very youthful core and most of it's top players (Brantley, Kipnis, Santana) tied up in long team-friendly deals. Mike Aviles is a useful, versatile player who can play pretty much anywhere on the field but catcher, and with the Indians forced to pay him $250k either way, it wouldn't surprise me if they choose to exercise this option, although $3.5m is expensive for a bench player who hasn't been particularly productive this season.

Off-Season Plan

Pitching: The pitching staff has found it's new ace in the form of 28 year old Kluber, who has come into his own this year with a strong, boring two-seam fastball, a 90mph cutter with ridiculous lateral movement and a low 80's curveball that grades out as one of the nastiest pitches in the Majors. Trevor Bauer has impressed in bursts this season, and if he can refine his command he has legitimate number two starter upside. Danny Salazar struggled mightily to start the season after his impressive 2013 cameo, but has come around more of late and should have a rotation spot provided he can pitch well in Spring. T.J. House has pitched well in his time with the big league club this season, and the team may decide he's worth an extended look next season, especially given that the team is lacking in left-handed starters. Carlos Carrasco has been outstanding in the second half, striking out a batter per inning along with a 2.94 ERA, and if his strides forward are legitimate he'll be a great addition for the Indians heading into 2015. The Indians could maybe do with some depth at the position, but I think they have enough talent to cobble together a usable starting five, assuming House remains a part of their plans. A back-end starter like Kevin Correia or Chris Young would be a decent addition to bolster them in case of injury.

The bullpen has been led this season by the impressive 25 year old Cody Allen, who impressed in the set-up role last year but has not performed the same implosion Vinnie Pestano did when forced into 9th inning duty. Allen has the stuff to close out games for this team until 2019, and it seems likely the Indians will give him every chance to do so. Bryan Shaw has served as his primary set-up man this season and his 2.26 ERA in 67 innings of work will certainly play for the Indians. Mark Rzepczynski will likely continue as Cleveland's primary left-hander, and though the bullpen will need a few additions to stretch it out, it won't need an entire revamp.

Hitting: Yan Gomes has taken to everyday catching duty with vigour, proving himself an above-average defensive asset behind the plate, and continuing to mash to the tune of an .826 OPS with 17 dingers. Gomes was tied up to a long term contract last winter that keeps him an Indian until at least 2019, with two more option years looking like good value assuming he can stick behind the plate as his body ages. Carlos Santana got off to a dreadful start this season, hitting .151 in April and then .169 in May. He looked to have turned it around by hitting over .300 in June and July, but has since started to struggled at the plate again. Fortunately, he is one of the league's most patient hitters, so despite a poor .230 batting average, his .360 OBP is borderline elite, and will continue to keep him in the line-up even when he struggles. His move out from behind the plate has diminished some of his value, but he's gone from a poor defensive catcher to an above average defensive first baseman, which will allow him to be productive at that position despite a peculiar offensive profile.

Kipnis has struggled, but it's tough to see this continuing, and 2015 could be the season he puts it all together and has an MVP campaign. Lonnie Chisenhall had a two week stretch earlier this season where he was almost Bondsian, and though he hasn't kept that up all year, his .821 OPS is beyond the club's wildest dreams entering the season, and though his defensive value is questionable at best, it would surprise me if he isn't the starting third baseman on opening day. The vacant hole at shortstop appears to have arrived at the perfect time for top prospect Francisco Lindor's arrival. Lindor should be an above average player from the moment he steps on the field thanks to his outstanding defense, and his solid line drive swing and approach at the plate suggests he could become a great top of the order hitting for the Indians as soon as 2016. This Indians infield has quietly morphed into one of the best in the game.

In the outfield, Michael Bourn has put up almost identical numbers to his disappointing 2013 campaign as injuries have plagued him again and he has lost a lot of the speed that provided him with his value on the bases and in the field. The Indians have him locked up for two more seasons, so will have to roll him out there in 2015, but they will be hoping he can somehow return to the 6 win player he proved to be in 2012. Michael Brantley's great strides at the plate all seem to be legit, and he'll enter the season as the lynchpin of the Indians line-up with his sweet left-handed swing. The Indians do have a hole to fill in right field however, and with a largely left-handed line-up, a decent right handed bopper would fit the bill nicely. Nelson Cruz represents an expensive but high-upside option, whilst Torii Hunter or Josh Willingham would likely come cheaper but with less offensive profile. The designated hitter is likely to be rotated between the Indians surplus infielders, like recent acquisition Zach Walters and 21 year old second-baseman Jose Ramirez. Victor Martinez would be an enticing option to pursue in free agency however, and would make their line-up one of the more dangerous in the American League

Trade Possibilities

The Indians have a surplus of quality infielders, and could probably look to deal some of that talent (Walters, Ramirez and Aguilar) for a decent right-handed slugger, especially one that could man an outfield corner. Scott Van Slyke of the Dodgers would be a great trade target to be part of a platoon as a righty bat that destroys left-handers. The Dodgers surplus of outfielders means the Indians would probably just have to give up one of their fringy infielders to secure his services. The Indians farm system isn't particularly stacked, especially if they promote Lindor, so acquiring top talent won't be easy, and with their limited payroll the Indians can't afford to take on too much salary.

Overview

The Indians have a balanced and youthful roster, and assuming some of their young players take steps forward next season, it's not hard to imagine them competing in the AL Central once again. Health permitting, there aren't a whole lot of moves the Indians can really make, although a decent outfielder should be their priority entering the winter. If Cleveland can make a couple of shrewd moves, this team is going to generate a lot of buzz entering 2015.

Winter Plans: Texas Rangers

The 2014 Story

When I scribbled my quick divisional previews on opening day this season, I said that I expected the Rangers to be disappointing and predicted them to finish with an 83-81 record. Which just goes to show how far they have really fallen. With a 53-85 record, Texas doesn't just have the worst record in the AL West, it has the worst record in all of baseball. The team has admittedly suffered from an incredible number of injuries, leaving the roster looking like a skeleton of the original plan, but Texas were expected to compete in the West and maybe go a long way in the play-offs. That said, if you're going to lose, you may as well lose spectacularly, and with Texas currently looking likely to secure the first overall pick in the 2015 draft, this could work out as a nice way to stock the farm.

Major Potential Free Agents

J.P. Arencibia, C
Alex Rios, OF ($13.5m option)
Colby Lewis, SP

The Rangers actually have a pretty youthful roster, although whether that is out of choice or desperation is probably a pertinent question. Rios was acquired late last season from the White Sox, and although he has hit pretty well this season (.282/.313/.402), it seems unlikely the Rangers will choose to exercise the option at this price, although stranger things have certainly happened. Colby Lewis is basically an innings eater, and if the Rangers want to contend next season then he shouldn't be a part of their rotation plans.

Off-Season Plan

Hitting: The J.P. Arencibia project behind the plate did not work out well, as his bat struggled and he ended up playing at first base, which is something of an insult to paying season ticket holders. The catcher of the future is presumably prospect Jorge Alfaro, but with a lot of work to be done in the minors, he won't be part of the Rangers plans until 2016 at the earliest. Robinson Chirinos and Tomas Telis are getting an extended audition to finish this season, with the former a decent defender and the latter a possibly above-average hitter but neither particularly polished. The Rangers would be well served to get a decent veteran from free agency to at least compliment whichever of the two makes a better impression, someone like David Ross potentially fits the bill. Fielder will man first base, health permitting, and Beltre and Andrus should form a solid left side of the infield. Rougned Odor has held his own at second base this season considering he's a 20 year old getting his first taste of Major League action, but he will surely be relegated to bench duty next season when uber-prospect Jurickson Profar returns.

Leonys Martin has proven himself to be a solid center fielder for the Rangers, playing strong defense, hitting righties at a good clip and stealing bases for fun. However, after another disappointing season against left-handers it seems obvious Martin would be best utilised in a platoon. Michael Choice doesn't seem to have the glove for center field, but his bat would profile well in a platoon with Martin. Alternatively, Chris Young will be available on the free agent market. Shin-Soo Choo will presumably slide over to right field if Rios departs, leaving a gap in left field which can be filled by another internal platoon (Robertson/Adduci) or via the external market with Melky Cabrera probably a little out of their price range but an ideal solution. The Rangers have a lot of high upside outfielders making their way through the system, but none are likely to make an impact in 2015.

Pitching: Yu Darvish will presumably anchor the Rangers rotation once more, and assuming health he should return to his dominant self. Derek Holland has spent most of 2014 on the DL, but if he can make a solid set of starts this September then he should be a lock for the opening day rotation next year. Matt Harrison is under contract for several more years, but after undergoing spinal fusion surgery earlier this season, his playing career looks to be in doubt so a return in 2015 cannot be banked on. Martin Perez started the season strong but unfortunately became victim to the Tommy John epidemic, and probably won't make a full recovery in time to be ready for the start of the season. Prospect 'Chi-Chi' Gonzalez has impressed at AA this season, and a good spring combined with the Rangers desperate need for starters could propel him into the conversation. With this many question marks it's hard not to imagine the Rangers delving into the free agent market assuming they are serious about competing, and depending on how much money they have available to spend, a top starter like Scherzer or Lester would give them a massive boost for 2015 and beyond. James Shields, Francisco Liriano and Ervin Santana are all cheaper options that could provide a lot of value to the club.

The Rangers are still looking for a dominant reliever to anchor their bullpen next season. Feliz has not possessed the same stuff since his return from TJ surgery, Alexi Ogando is dominant in bursts but has struggled with injuries. David Robertson and Francisco Rodriguez are top end options that could be acquired via free agency, so it wouldn't surprise me to see the Rangers make a move there or via trade.

Trade Possibilities

Rougned Odor's decent campaign at such a young age will likely have turned some heads in other front offices, and with a logjam on the infield the Rangers could deal him to a team with a hole at second base like the Yankees or Blue Jays for some pitching help. If they decide they want to go for a full rebuild it would make sense to deal Adrian Beltre, both to create room for top prospect Joey Gallo and to earn the Rangers some salary flexibility. Beltre would command a decent haul of prospects too, but the Rangers likely won't want to trade the leader of their franchise and arguably the best third baseman in the Majors. If they decide to give up some of their talent to compete now, then they could have more options, but with more teams competitive than ever it's tough to see which top players would be available.

Overview

The Rangers are coming off a cataclysmic disaster of a season, but the good news is that if they can get players healthy again then they have the talent to compete in 2015. Finances permitting, this team should be busy in free agency as they try to build a stronger rotation and bullpen, but with so much money locked up in the Fielder, Choo and Beltre deals, the Rangers may not have as much flexibility as they would want. This will be an interesting team to watch.

Winter Plans: Seattle Mariners

The 2014 Story

The Seattle Mariners made the biggest free agent splash in the 2013 off-season, going out and signing perennial MVP candidate Robinson Cano to a mammoth 10 year, $240 million contract. The message they sent out was clear: the M's wanted to compete this year. So far this season, they have been something of a pleasant surprise, but forced to compete in what is likely the toughest division in baseball they have very little to show for it with one month left in the regular season. Their 73-63 record is good for just third in the AL West, and as things stand they are 1.5 games adrift in the wildcard race. The 5.5 game deficit to the Oakland A's is probably unbridgeable (admittedly stranger things have happened), but the Tigers and Royals are both within striking distance. The Yankees and Indians will both attempt to disrupt the M's hope of a wildcard spot, but with King Felix putting up a Cy Young calibre season and the line-up finally starting to click, the Mariners are in with a fighting chance for their first post-season berth since winning 116 games in 2001.

Major Potential Free Agents

Corey Hart, 1B
Kendrys Morales, 1B/DH
Chris Denorfia, OF
Hisashi Iwakuma, SP ($7m option)
Chris Young, SP

The Mariners don't see any huge departures from the club this winter, although they also won't get much in the way of salary relief. Corey Hart and Kendrys Morales are two of a plethora of first base/designated hitter types on the Mariners roster, and their departure will free up more playing time for the likes of Logan Morrison and Justin Smoak. Chris Denorfia was a mid-season acquisition who can hit lefties but not much else, whilst Chris Young has defied all the odds to give the M's 151 innings of strong pitching. Hisashi Iwakuma has pitched like an ace with the Mariners, so they will presumably exercise the option and keep him on board for another season, or perhaps sign an extension in the off-season.

Off-Season Plan

Hitting: The Mariners are sorted at three of the five positions on the diamond, with Zunino embedded behind the plate, Seager improving every season at the hot corner and Cano providing some pop at second base. At shortstop, the M's have been indecisive in previous seasons, trialling top prospect Nick Franklin but quickly moving on to Brad Miller when Franklin struggled. This season, Miller has been awful and Franklin traded, but in Chris Taylor the M's think they've found a possible answer. Taylor has hit well since joining the big league club, and though his defense is somewhat suspect, it's safe to presume he'll at least be starting there on opening day 2015 unless the M's go for broke and sign someone like Hanley Ramirez. The outfield has been strengthened this season by the acquisition of Austin Jackson. Jackson will be arbitration eligible this off-season, before becoming a free agent for 2016, so the M's may look to wrap him up to a long term deal. Dustin Ackley has finally found a home in left field and has begun to hit like he was expected to. The M's could do with another outfielder/designated hitter type, so someone like Nelson Cruz could be an attractive option for a line-up lacking in right-handed power, or Josh Willingham/Jonny Gomes if they wish to pursue a cheaper option.

Pitching: Felix Hernandez's massive contract that sees him locked up as an M until 2020 still looks pricey, but with King Felix asserting himself as the AL's best starter, it's not hard to see why he earned such a big payday. Iwakuma will be back, at least for 2015, and Roenis Elias has probably shown enough promise to pencil himself in for the starting five. Taijuan Walker and James Paxton are two high-ceiling prospects who have battled injury issues this season but should get a chance in the rotation assuming health. The M's could still use a back-end starter, at least as insurance, and so the likes of Kyle Kendrick, Ryan Vogelsong and Aaron Harang may be good fits for their spacious home ballpark. The bullpen will be led once again by Fernando Rodney, whilst Danny Farquhar and Tom Wilhelmsen will back him up. Charlie Furbush and Lucas Luetge will continue as the main left-handers, so it seems unlikely that the M's will make much of a foray into the free agent relief market.

Trade Possibilities

The M's don't have a particularly stacked minor league system, with their best prospects likely playing roles in the Majors next season. Danny Hultzen will try to make a return from serious shoulder surgery, whilst D.J,. Peterson is an exciting infield prospect, but neither will be able to command much in major league talent. If the M's fail to make the play-offs and decide to go for a mini rebuild, the likes of Iwakuma and Jackson could give them a decent haul of young talent, but with Cano and King Felix likely declining in the coming years their window of opportunity is getting smaller. If they want to bolster the team, then a trade for a starting pitcher is probably the best way to go, and the Reds will likely be looking to deal Latos or Cueto, so if the M's can put together an enticing enough package that could be a possibility. Marlon Byrd could also be a possible trade target to give the M's some right-handed pop, and given the Phillies need to rebuild and Byrd's poor contract they wouldn't have to give up too much in the way of prospects assuming Ruben Amaro Jr actually wants to improve his team. Zduriencik earned himself a large extension this week, but he's going to have to prove why by putting together a winning roster.

Overview

The M's have a good but not great team, and a quick glance at their players, salary and market suggests there aren't many ways for them t change that heading into 2015. There aren't many gaping holes in the roster, but a few shrewd moves in the outfield and pitching staff could put them in better shape if they want to compete with the A's and Angels. There's a lot of pressure on this team to compete now, but being able to do so looks unlikely to me.

Winter Plans: Oakland Athletics

The 2014 Story

After the Oakland A's shocked the baseball world two years running by winning the AL West despite a limited payroll, it has almost come as no surprise to see them setting the pace in their division once again in 2014. However, after disappointing early play-off exits in both the last two seasons, Billy Beane has gone to some lengths to ensure that his roster is in the best shape possible entering October. Mid-season acquisitions Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel haven't quite worked out as expected considering Oakland gave up their two very best prospects, including one of the best in baseball in the form of Addison Russell. However, his blockbuster trade with Boston saw Jon Lester join the A's on the trade deadline, and he has even acquired ageing left-handed slugger Adam Dunn to try and boost his team's post-season chances. The Angels have begun to stretch out a lead in the West, increasing the chances the A's will face a tough wildcard test, potentially against their nemesis Detroit, but this is a team that is built to win in 2014.

Major Potential Free Agents

Nick Punto, INF
Jed Lowrie, SS
Alberto Callaspo, 3B/2B
Jonny Gomes, LF
Sam Fuld, LF
Jason Hammel, SP
Jon Lester, SP
Luke Gregerson, RP

The one downside to going for broke in 2014 is that it will leave the A's with a pretty barren roster heading into 2015. It will however take $42m in salaries off the Oakland payroll leaving them with a reasonable amount of financial flexibility heading into the free agent market.

Off-Season Plan

Hitting: The A's will have a number of decisions to make on the infield, with their starting middle infielders both hitting free agency, and Josh Donaldson and Brandon Moss entering arbitration. Donaldson has been highly productive in his time with the A's, whilst a Moss/Freiman platoon at first base is one that should succeed. Up the middle, the trade to send away Russell leaves them devoid of internal options at least until 2016, but there are a few options they could look to in free agency. Kelly Johnson strikes me as a classic Billy Beane target as a versatile player with good on-base skills coming off a disappointing season so he should be reasonably affordable. At shortstop, a reunion with Stephen Drew wouldn't be out of the question, whilst JJ Hardy would represent a defensive upgrade with pop. In the outfield, Coco Crisp will man center-field provided he can stay healthy but the A's could do with a platoon partner for the disappointing Josh Reddick. Chris Denorfia would be a cheap option, although Nelson Cruz might be a target given the availability of the DH. The trade of Cespedes and impending free agency of Gomes leaves a hole in left field. Speedster Billy Burns is one of the most exciting prospects in the system, but whether he has the bat to stay in the line-up remains to be seen, so the A's might look for a free agent option, such as Sam Fuld or Melky Cabrera. The A's are going to be busy, and with Beane at the helm it's safe to expect the unexpected.

Pitching: The rotation will be anchored once again by young right-hander Sonny Gray who isn't arbitration eligible until 2017, whilst Jeff Samardzija has one more year of arbitration left that he will presumably see out in Oakland. Scott Kazmir has struggled in the second half, but is under contract for $11m in 2015 and has proven an astute signing after his unlikely comeback. Jesse Chavez will be on the roster once again for the A's in 2015, and after impressing as a back-end starter earlier this year he may get another chance to stick and save the A's some money. If the A's want to make a splash in free agency, then one of Shields, Scherzer or Lester will be a top target, but it seems unlikely the A's will want to guarantee more than around $40m, ruling out the latter two. More astute targets like former A's Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson seem likelier, although Francisco Liriano could be a good fit in their rotation provided he can be acquired at a reasonable price. In the bullpen, Sean Doolittle will continue as closer, ably supported by Ryan Cook and Eric O'Flaherty although the A's will need to replace Gregerson either internally or on the market.

Trade Possibilities

If there is one thing we can take away from this season, it is that Billy Beane is not scared to wheel-and-deal when he sees an opportunity present itself. With a decimated minor league system, he may struggle to put together the kind of package that could acquire him quality major leaguers, but Beane is unlikely to let a hurdle as trivial as that stop him from exploring his options. The Dodgers outfield surplus might be an area that he looks towards, as he would not have to give up much in the way of prospects for the likes of Ethier or Kemp provided the team can take on a decent amount of salary. One prospect that could build some value provided he stays healthy is Dillon Overton. Having signed way below slot in 2013 after the revelation that he would need Tommy John surgery, he has bounced back emphatically since his rehab this season, striking out 53 in 37 innings, albeit in the low minors.

Overview

The A's are built to win now, and with 2014 the priority, it's only natural that 2015 might suffer. There are going to be a lot of holes to fill if Oakland doesn't resign any of it's free agent-eligible players, and with a restricted payroll it is going to take some more Billy Beane magic to make up the gap to the Angels. If there's one thing we've learnt about the A's however, it's that you can never rule them out.

Winter Plans: Houston Astros

The 2014 Story

A record of 57-78 might not sound like anything to be proud of, but having failed to eclipse 56 wins since 2010, the Astros have showed clear and promising signs of improvement this season. In Jose Altuve, the team has found it's MVP, with the pint-sized infielder slashing an impressive .332/.369/.434 to go with devastating talent on the bases (49 steals from 56 attempts). Chris Carter has enjoyed a huge breakout, mashing 32 home runs and leading the league since the all-star break. Dexter Fowler has hit well after his arrival in the off-season and talented rookies George Springer and Jon Singleton have shown flashes of brilliance that make the future look bright. On the mound, the Astros have enjoyed a breakout season from Dallas Keuchel, with his 3.05 ERA and team-leading five complete games establishing the southpaw as the ace of the young staff. Collin McHugh has also emerged from irrelevance to make himself a legitimate big-league starter whilst the 'pen has held firm most of the year. The Astros haven't been good in 2014, but quietly they haven't been that bad either.

Major Potential Free Agents

None!

The Astros enter the winter without any real concerns in terms of losing free agents. Most of their players are yet to hit arbitration, while the few veteran players they're letting go of should be easily replaceable. That's not to say that this team doesn't have a lot of holes to fill...

Off-Season Plan

The Astros remain in rebuild mode, and with 2016 probably the year to target to be competitive, they should stay patient this off-season.

Hitting: With Jason Castro and Chris Carter hitting arbitration, the Astros might want to think about signing them to long-term deals or trading them away, especially Carter who has soared in trade value this season. Dexter Fowler provides a decent stop-gap option in the outfield, but with Springer and Delino DeShields making their way towards the Majors he's likely surplus to requirements in their long term plans. They should explore options to trade him away for a B-level prospect or two. Jonathan Villar has failed to impress in his short stints with the club, and with second base already filled and top prospect Carlos Correa likely to be arriving soon to fill the shortstop void, he may find himself either demoted or looking for a new team. Matt Dominguez has struggled at the plate for most of his big league career and defensive metrics aren't as keen on him this season as they were last year. It's unlikely the Astros will make anything other than minor dips into free agency for a couple of seasons however.

Pitching: On the rubber, the Astros will presumably return Feldman, Keuchel, McHugh and Oberholtzer to the rotation in 2015, with the final spot to be filled hopefully by Mike Foltynewicz, who struggled with command problems at AAA this year but has the raw stuff and build to be a solid member of the staff if he can develop further this winter. Brad Peacock offers a reliable but poor option, whilst Mark Appel will be an outside shot if he can continue his improvements in AA and Spring Training after having an abysmal start to the season. Chad Qualls is under contract for 2015, but at 36 years of age he serves no real purpose for the Astros so they should look to deal him this winter, even if they get nothing but salary relief in return. The Astros might be well served to try and follow the Chicago Cubs model of signing struggling pitchers to short contracts in the hope they can rediscover some form and trade value. Justin Masterson, Paul Maholm and Wandy Rodriguez are all potential bounceback candidates that could be acquired on the cheap.

Trade Possibilities

The Astros have spent a lot of time and money on developing a stellar farm system, and though they were unable to sign 2014 first overall pick Brady Aiken, they boast some top prospects. Rather than trade them away for value, the Astros would be better served trying to add to their collection. With few valuable pieces to trade away, they might not be able to bolster the farm much however, with Chris Carter likely the only trade candidate that would command anything close to a top prospect. However, if they can make some astute signings, they could be in a great position at the trade deadline next season to make a killing as the Cubs did with Samardzija, so don't rule out a few unexpected trades or signings. A player like Peter Bourjos on the Cardinals could likely be acquired cheap after he struggled this season, but he would fit nicely into the line-up as a platoon option in center field, and open up trade options with Dexter Fowler, Robbie Grossman or Jake Marisnick.

Overview

Astros fans have had to be extremely patient over the past few seasons as their team has struggled to put together a roster that is anything close to Major League calibre. With some top prospects starting to near the Major Leagues, and a front office that apparently is intent on competing soon, these fans will not have to wait much longer. I think the Astros will make some shrewd signings this winter, although a blockbuster trade would surprise me.

Winter Plans: Intro and Los Angeles Angels

With the regular season starting to wind down, and the pennant races heating up, teams that have lost hope for 2014 will be starting to turn an eye towards 2015. In this series of posts I will take an early look at what the winter plans for every team in the Major Leagues could, or rather should, be. At this point, trying to guess what might happen with regards to trades, free agency and line-ups is sheer speculation, but I'll try to keep my predictions as realistic and feasible as possible. I mean, I can't be worse than Jim Bowden right?!

We'll kick off the series in the AL West, and the current pace-setters both of the West and the American League, the Los Angeles Angels.

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The 2014 Story

After two straight seasons of disappointment in 2012 and 2013 led to a grand total of zero play-off games, the Angels have righted the ship in a major way in 2014. Perennial MVP candidate Mike Trout has once again led the way after signing a six-year, 140 million dollar contract in the off-season, hitting .291/.378/.565 to date and reaching the 30 home run plateau last night. Albert Pujols has quelled any concerns about his sudden and stunning descent into mediocrity by hitting a respectable .276/.333/.469, but the real line-up boost has come from breakout candidate Kole Calhoun who has made the lead-off spot his own to the tune of an .816 OPS. Josh Hamilton has continued to struggle with injuries and form making his contract look increasingly bloated, whilst David Freese has provided few answers for the Halos at the hot corner.

On the rubber, the Angels have seen their biggest revelation, and the one major reason for it is the success of 26 year old flame-thrower Garrett Richards. Having struggled to secure his spot in the rotation ever since his call-up in 2011, Richards had come into his own this season as the ace of the staff with a 2.61 ERA and 8.75 K/9 until a devastating knee injury cut his season short. Hector Santiago and Matt Shoemaker have pitched well above their expected contributions this season, whilst Jered Weaver and CJ Wilson have done their best to combat declining repertoires. Highly touted young left-hander Tyler Skaggs was having a strong second stint with the Angels until an injury to his UCL resigned him to Tommy John surgery and likely ruled him out of the entire 2015 season. In the bullpen, Ernesto Frieri struggled in the closer role, and was then traded, but mid-season acquisition Huston Street has thrived in his place, saving 10 games with a 1.20 ERA since joining the Angels. Joe Smith, Fernando Salas and Mike Morin have also combined to turn a previous weakness into a strength this season.

Major Potential Free Agents

Huston Street, RP ($7m club option)

The Angels don't have many major players hitting free agency this winter, with their only real dilemma coming in the form of Huston Street. Considering the Angels struggles to find a consistent closer and the success of Street in 2014, it would surprise me if they didn't exercise this option given the obvious discount compared to market value. David Freese will be eligible for arbitration for the second year, and after agreeing to a $5m dollar deal this past winter, the Angels might be happy to cut ties this season depending on Freese's demands. Howie Kendrick and Chris Iannetta will both be entering the final years of team-friendly contracts, although how much money will be available for extensions remains to be seen.

Off-Season Plan

Assuming the Angels don't implode down the stretch, they'll make the play-offs, at least as a wildcard, and will have a decent chance to go deep, although the injury to Richards leaves them without a clear ace. After making major free agent splashes in 2011 (Pujols and C.J. Wilson) and 2012 (Hamilton) and given the state of the market this off-season, it's unlikely that they'll be particularly active this winter. However, there are still some holes to fill in the line-up, as well as a bullpen to fortify so they could make a few under the radar moves to boost their 2015 chances.

Pitching: Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson are both signed to long, expensive deals and will presumably retain their spots in the rotation given their diminishing trade value. Garrett Richards is expected to make a full recovery in time for opening day, and will assuredly shoot straight to the top of the pecking order when he does so. Hector Santiago has proven an extremely astute acquisition by the Halos, and will only hit arbitration this winter, so he'll most likely retain his spot. Matt Shoemaker has emerged as not only a viable fifth starter, but a valuable member of the rotation this season, and he'll stay extremely affordable until at least 2017. Assuming none of these starters suffer from injury, I expect the Angels to return the same starting five next year, with Skaggs unlikely to get back on a mound until 2016.

In the bullpen, the Halos will likely exercise their option on Huston Street and he will return to ninth inning duty. Jason Grilli will hit free agency, but given his declining effectiveness, this won't be a major factor for the Angels considering Fernando Salas, Mike Morin, Joe Smith and Kevin Jepsen will all be returning to the Angels 'pen next season. Vinnie Pestano and Cam Bedrosian are both high upside relievers that have disappointed this season but should have impacts in 2015. One area the Angels will need to find an upgrade is in left-handed relief, with Joe Thatcher hitting free agency. With arms like Phil Coke, Tom Gorzelanny and Andrew Miller hitting the market this winter, the Angels will presumably look for a cheap option to bolster their battery.

Hitting: The Angels boast one of the more dangerous line-ups in baseball, at least on paper, and with none of their stars hitting free agency this winter, it's hard to imagine them making much of a splash. David Freese has struggled in his time with the Angels (1.2 WAR this season), but assuming they can get him back at a reasonable discount he's probably their starting third baseman on opening day next season. Should they look for an upgrade, Chase Headley, Pablo Sandoval and ex-Angel Alberto Callaspo will all become available this winter. Other than at third base, the Angels have few areas that need upgrading, so will likely look for a left-handed partner to platoon CJ Cron as designated hitter and act as a bench option. Adam Dunn, Ichiro Suzuki and Nate Schierholtz will all be potential options for the Angels to consider. Other than that, it will be filling out the bench for the Angels, who have most positions locked down for the near future.

Trade Possibilities

The Angels have a depleted farm system after seasons of trading away their best talent as well as poor drafting and developing. Taylor Lindsey and Kaleb Cowart are two infield prospects with upside, but both have a lot of developing left in the minors and are unlikely to demand much attention in trade talks. I'd be surprised if the Angels make anything other than minor moves this off-season, and it's likely to be that way for the foreseeable future given the massive and lengthy contracts they've handed out to Pujols, Hamilton and C.J. Wilson as well as the depleted state of their farm. With several players entering the last season of their contracts, the Angels may look to extend some players, or indeed trade them away, but given how competitive they've been this season, I think the Angels will wait until at least June 2015 to really assess their roster.

Overview

The Angels are unlikely to do much this winter, and in their defense, why should they. The team that's been touted as one of the best in the AL has finally come through on the promises this year, and with a line-up that boasts a lot of potential and a rotation that is finally consistent and productive, it would take a number of injuries or mishaps for the Halos to make much noise this off-season.

Austin Jackson and Perfection

One of the great features of baseball is that every game starts with a clean slate. You never quite know what's going to happen. Sure, the Los Angeles Dodgers will probably beat the San Diego Padres tonight, because one team is 71-57 and has Clayton Kershaw on the mound and the other team is 59-66 and is sending Tyson Ross to the hill. But there's a reason they play the game. There's a reason that, as the great Earl Weaver once said, 'you've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance'. On any given night, in any given at-bat, the unexpected can happen, and as a baseball fan, it's this slim chance that keeps us glued to our seat. Sure, it's not often that we get to see something remarkable, something almost unexplainable, but that's what makes this game so special.

Armando Galarraga entered his start on June 2nd 2010 with some pressure on his shoulders. As Rod Allen said during Galarraga's warm up, he needed to earn the number five spot in the rotation. He'd made just three appearances that season, and was hanging on to his rotation spot by a thread. The game started innocuously enough, Galarraga's pitches had life and he was controlling them well, but he wasn't exactly dominant. The Indians weren't hitting the ball hard, and when they did, it was right at the defense. Suddenly, Galarraga had retired 18 in a row without breaking a sweat. When he coasted through the seventh and eighth innings without reaching a two-ball count on any of the six hitters, it suddenly looked like Armando Galarraga, the 28 year old journeyman, was about to complete a feat that had been done just 20 times in baseball history: a perfect game.

Enter the ninth. At the plate, Mark Grudzielanek, a journeyman shortstop who had enjoyed a long and profitable major league career, that would ultimately end just a week after this game. Grudzielanek hammered the first pitch... and this happened

Without the context, this is an incredible catch, the kind that will make highlight reels and SportsCenter Top 10 and sports writers and fans tweet excitedly. With the context, this is probably one of the best catches you will ever see, and the kind of moment that can make a baseball fan for life. Let's break down the catch.

If you ask most major league hitters where they would like a pitch to be, I guarantee it's not far from that spot. Belt high, right over the middle of the plate, this is a mistake by Galarraga, one of the few he made. The catcher sets up on the inside of the plate, and Galarraga just misses his spot. And to Grudzielanek's credit, he punished it. This was easily the hardest hit ball all night for the Indians. For once, it wasn't right at one of the Tiger position players, it was headed to the left-center field gap, and deep. This is a screengrab of the above gif right after the camera angle changes.

The outfield is shaded to the opposite field, meaning that Austin Jackson, the Tigers center fielder actually starts on the wrong side of the field, and has to go back over to left-center field in order to make the catch. It also looks like he was playing pretty shallow, which is unsurprising given Grudzielanek had a career .393 slugging percentage. I've crudely drawn on a red dot in the approximate place Jackson makes the catch. To my best estimations, there is about five and a half seconds between the moment the ball makes contact with Grudzielanek's bat and the moment it nestles in Jackson's glove. At this point in the play, Jackson has already made several strides towards the ball, so he obviously got a pretty good jump, but he still has well over 100 feet of ground to make up in order to make a play on the ball, never mind the fact he has to judge the trajectory and the distance.

Ultimately, Jackson either misjudges the flight of the ball or has too much distance to cover. His route to the ball wasn't perfect, but it was damn close. Unfortunately, Jackson is right handed, so his glove is on the wrong side to make a good attempt at a catch, to even get his glove on the ball would take an incredible feat of hand-eye co-ordination. In the end, probably out of sheer desperation, Jackson throws his glove out in hope.

Maybe he could have tried a backhanded dive, but he hadn't slowed down from his top velocity and with his back to home plate he would have been looking at some kind of Jim Edmonds-esque miracle to manage to get the ball in his glove having already covered a lot more real estate than Edmonds did. So Jackson flung his glove out and somehow, somehow the ball stuck. The Tigers dugout went berserk, the stadium left it's feet and Armando Galarraga cracked a wry smile. Ultimately, this game would go down in history for all the wrong reasons when Jim Joyce blew the call on the 27th out, costing Galarraga his perfect game, and likely costing Jackson a genuine argument in greatest catch of all time discussions.

Jackson has never managed to live up to his hype as a prospect, and the fielding metrics actually rate him as a below average defender over the past couple of seasons. On June 2nd 2010 however, he made one of the greatest catches, given the circumstances, in baseball history and earned himself immortality with five and a half seconds of magic.

A Bright Future in Chicago

Cubs fans can be forgiven for being a bit pessimistic. Last time their team won the World Series, WAR was about to divide Europe, not the baseball world. Yes, it's been a century of pain for the 'loveable losers', but there's reason to believe that the Cubs fortunes are going to turn around - and turn around soon.

Much has already been made of the Cubs loaded minor league system. Keith Law ranked six of their prospects in the top 100 in baseball and had their system fourth overall in baseball. They have an impressive array of hitting prospects, two with genuine MVP ceilings, and in Anthony Rizzo and Starlin Castro they have a solid foundation for a strong line-up already at the Major League level. Pitching wise, there are still a lot of holes. C.J. Edwards represents the Cubs only strong starting pitching prospect, and other than trade candidate Jeff Samardzija and surprise breakout candidate Travis Wood, there's not a whole lot of talent at the Major League level.

But there's reason to think that the Cubs could have one of the best offenses in the National League, as soon as 2016. Starting at the Major League level, the Cubs have a couple of offensive talents that should be fixtures in the line-up for years to come. At first base, Anthony Rizzo hasn't quite lived up to the hype his excellent 2012 campaign promised, but he's shown decent power, an encouraging ability to take a walk, and so far in 2014 contact skills to go with it. He'll never be a 40 home run force, but if he can figure out how to hit lefties (career .617 OPS against southpaws) then he could be an OBP monster that plays great defense at first base and so far he looks best suited to be the leader of these prodigal young hitting talents.

Starlin Castro is a fascinating enigma at shortstop. Talent has never been a question for this highly skilled infielder, and having been in the Majors for over three full seasons, it's easy to forget that he is just 24 years old. However, after three great years between 2010 and 2012, Castro took a huge step back last season. He hit just .245 with an abysmal .631 OPS. Defense has never been Castro's calling card, meaning he actually put up negative WAR over 161 games last year. He was dogged by make-up and hustle questions as well, as manager Dale Sveum called him out for a lack of effort on several occasions. There's no question that Castro suffers inexplicable brain freezes on the field at times, leading to frustrating fielding errors and basepath blunders, but his bat is so talented that I saw him as a major trade candidate in the off-season, believing a change in scenery could do him a world of good. In the end, the Cubs kept him and got rid of manager Sveum, and in a small sample in 2014, it appears to have worked. He has hit .292 in the early going, and although his awful plate discipline prevents him from putting up high on-base figures, the four home runs suggest that Castro may be growing into some power. If he wants to avoid being traded or benched, it's vital that Castro have a big season and prove he's still part of the Cubs rebuilding project.

Of the other hitters at the Major League level, many are old or signed to short-term contracts, suggesting that their stay in Chicago may not be long-lived. Two more players worth keeping an eye on are Junior Lake and Mike Olt. Lake was something of a non-prospect coming up, but he quickly worked his way into the limelight last season when he had a monster couple of weeks immediately following his call-up. He regressed of course, but the end of season stat line (.284/.332/.428) was still impressive for a rookie campaign. Lake has good power to all fields, but is seemingly allergic to walks (a problem throughout the Cubs system) and has a lot of swing and miss to his game. If he can make adjustments, he could find himself patrolling left field for a few more years, but otherwise he may limit himself to a platoon role. Olt was much more of a prospect coming through the minors, but had a horrible beginning to 2013 in AAA, leading to a trade from the Rangers. Vision issues appeared to be at the forefront of his struggles, and after getting these fixed, he looked much more like the raker he had been earlier in his career. He strikes out a lot, and will never put up high averages, but if he can draw walks and hit home runs, he could potentially be a perfect platoon partner for Anthony Rizzo at first base.

So, now we delve into the minor leagues, and we start with one of the most exciting prospects in the game today. Javier Baez was the story of spring training, launching mammoth bombs seemingly every day, as he made a very strong case to start the season in the Majors. In the end, he was sent to AAA where he has actually struggled, both with injuries and at the plate. There's no question that he can hit however, with incredible bat speed that allows him to sustain high averages and hit for a lot more power than his frame would suggest possible. He has the tools to handle shortstop, and although he suffers from occasional brain-cramps and accusations that he's not showing enough effort (much like the aforementioned Castro) he looks set to be a fixture in the Cubs line-up in seasons to come. He likely won't get the call-up until June at the earliest, but there's reason to think that with a bit of experience and refinement, Baez could be an MVP candidate.

The Cubs turned some heads last Summer when they took college third baseman Kris Bryant at number two overall in the draft over dominant right-hander Jonathan Gray. In retrospect, that decision looks 100% vindicated, as Bryant has done nothing but tear the leather off the ball since becoming a professional. Bryant's bat speed isn't anywhere near as explosive as Baez's, but at 6 foot 5 and with huge hip rotation, power has never been an issue for Bryant. He slugged .688 once in the Cubs organisation last season, then .727 in the AFL and he already has five homers to start this season. With his slow bat speed, strikeouts may be a problem, and he'll likely be more of a .260/.270 hitter than a 200 hit machine. However, unlike almost all of the other prospects in the system, Bryant has shown he's not scared to work the count and take his walks, so high OBPs look likely for this right-handed monster. In his prime, this could be a 40 home run, .400 OBP stud who takes home an MVP award before it's all said and done. Despite being drafted less than a year ago, Bryant looks major league ready now, and could be up before Baez. Cubs fans, enjoy.

Jorge Soler was actually the more highly regarded Cuban defector when he and Yasiel Puig arrived in the States, and although projecting that kind of ability for him would be foolish, it's pretty clear we have a top prospect on our hands in this talented right fielder. His 2013 campaign was cut short when he broke a bone in his leg fouling a pitch off himself, and his 2014 campaign has been 1 at bat so far, as he left the first game with a hamstring injury, and is currently rehabbing. Once he gets healthy however, the Cubs are looking at a player with easy power and enough bat speed to sustain high averages. Drawing walks will need to become part of his game, but assuming he can do that there's reason to think Soler could be an elite middle-of-the-order bat that can do damage at the plate, on the bases and in the field. Staying healthy is a priority at the moment, with a possible 2015 arrival in the Majors.

Albert Almora is the youngest of the Cubs position player prospects, at just 19 years of age, but scouts have raved about his polish from the moment he has turned pro. He's an outstanding defensive center fielder, getting incredible reads off the bat thanks to his above average instincts that allow him to make up for a lack of speed. With the bat, he doesn't have the same kind of upside as the aforementioned prospects, but makes hard contact, and enough of it to think he could be a solid performer at the dish with some power once he fills out his body. Again, plate discipline is an issue, but he looks set to be a regular in at least some capacity for Chicago in the future.

Arismendy Alcantara hasn't received the same kind of hype as the other Cubs prospects, but all he's done is hit since becoming a professional. In the field his usual position is second base, but he has the ability to play a number of positions well and could end up a super utility player for the Cubs in a similar mould to Ben Zobrist. He has decent power, and good speed on the bases that could one day make him a 20/20 prospect on the middle infield, a rare commodity nowadays. In 2013 he showed a promising ability to take a walk, but so far in 2014 he has taken a big step back in that department at AAA, with just a 2.3% BB rate. He might be closest to the Majors of all the prospects, and considering he's the fifth best hitting prospect in this system, that's a pretty nice position to be in for the Cubs front office.

Overall, this is a franchise that has plenty to look forward to, particularly at the plate. If these highly heralded prospects continue their meteoric rise to the Majors and learn how to take a walk on the way, we could be looking at one of the Major League's most explosive offense, and one that could dominate the NL Central for several years. A couple of major splashes in the pitching free agent pool, and hey, maybe we'll see a World Series in Chicago in the next 106 years!

Quick Predictions

With proper Opening Day just a matter of hours away, I thought I'd quickly type up my predictions for team records, post-season picture and award winners. Last year I got exactly one of my end of season records correct (for the LA Dodgers), although I was one game away on a few teams and only really look stupid on my predictions for the Blue Jays, Angels and Giants. Let's see if I can do a bit better this season!

AL EAST
Team	Record
Boston Red Sox	93-69
Tampa Bay Rays	92-70
New York Yankees	84-78
Toronto Blue Jays	79-83
Baltimore Orioles	77-85

The loss of Ellsbury will hurt the Red Sox, but I think they have more than enough to challenge for the East title once again. Honestly, this is the hardest decision to predict, because any of the five teams could win 90 games if they put it together, so I've hedged my bets a bit. The Rays never seem to do as well as expected, and the Yankees seem to win despite their old age, so it wouldn't surprise me if they win 90 instead. I would be surprised if any of these teams get close to 100 wins.

AL CENTRAL
Team	Record
Detroit Tigers	97-65
Kansas City Royals	88-74
Cleveland Indians	86-76
Chicago White Sox	76-86
Minnesota Twins	67-95

The Tigers are the team to beat after swapping Fielder for Kinsler and making room for top prospect Nick Castellanos at the hot corner. I think Porcello is in for a breakout season, and wouldn't be surprised if Verlander gets back to Cy form. The Royals are a trendy sleeper pick, and whilst I see room for improvement, I don't think that rotation is strong enough to win the Central yet. I want the Indians to do well, but I just don't see how they can do it unless the line-up clicks. The White Sox and Twins will have fun battling for last place.

AL WEST
Team	Record
Oakland Athletics	95-67
Los Angeles Angels	90-72
Texas Rangers	83-81
Seattle Mariners	77-85
Houston Astros	61-101

I'm all-in on the Athletics this year, quite how they do it I'm not sure, but they put themselves in the hunt every season. I think the Rangers are going to be disappointing this year, just don't like their rotation at all beyond Cy favourite Yu Darvish, and he is struggling with injury to start the season. The Angels have to improve, they just have to, and the Mariners aren't going to be as bad as people think. Can the Astros avoid 100 losses?

NL EAST
Team	Record
Washington Nationals	97-65
Atlanta Braves	89-73
New York Mets	81-81
Miami Marlins	73-89
Philadelphia Phillies	70-92

I'm back on the Nationals band-wagon. Harper is primed for a huge season, and if they can stay healthy few teams can match Washington's all-round strength. The Braves rotation is a mess, but they still have a star-studded line-up and can beat up on the easy competition in this division. The Mets are one season away from being competitive, and might turn a few heads with a hot start. The Marlins and Phillies are only worth watching when Jose Fernandez and Cliff Lee are on the mound respectively.

NL CENTRAL
Team	Record
St. Louis Cardinals	99-63
Cincinatti Reds	92-70
Pittsburgh Pirates	86-76
Milwaukee Brewers	78-84
Chicago Cubs	66-96

The Cardinals just have so much depth, and so many good young arms that they're the best bet for 100 wins in the Majors this season. An incredible powerhouse of a franchise. The Reds lost Choo, but still have an underrated rotation and a strong enough line-up that they'll be there or thereabouts come September. Plus no more Dusty! Last season wasn't a complete fluke for the Pirates, but I don't see them winning 94 again. The Brewers and Cubs will both be bad, but at least the future is bright for Cubs fans - I'm really excited to see Baez hit the Majors.

NL WEST
Team	Record
Los Angeles Dodgers	96-66
Arizona Diamondbacks	85-77
San Francisco Giants	80-82
San Diego Padres	75-87
Colorado Rockies	68-94

Probably the weakest division in baseball, and if they can avoid another sluggish start, the Dodgers should coast to the title. The D-Backs always look like a team that should crack .500, but you don't expect much more, maybe Archie Bradley's promotion can push them over the edge. The Giants just aren't very good any more, but the Padres and Rockies are just worse.

ALCS: Tigers over Rays in 6

NLCS: Cardinals over Nationals in 7

WORLD SERIES: Cardinals over Tigers in 5

Awards

AL MVP: Mike Trout

NL MVP: Andrew McCutchen

AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander

NL Cy Young: Jose Fernandez

AL ROTY: Xander Bogaerts

NL ROTY: Travis D'Arnaud

Wacky prediction: George Springer comes up on June 1st, goes 20/20 the rest of the season and then gets wildly overhyped heading into 2015 (see Puig, Yasiel)

Dead cert: It's going to be another mental 162 game season. Enjoy it!

10 Bold Predictions for the 2014 Season

It's that time of the year again! Spring training is well under way, opening day is tantalisingly close, and it wouldn't feel like baseball without putting my wacky predictions out there for the upcoming season. I haven't been particularly accurate with my guesses over the last couple of seasons but I guess that's why they call them bold. These aren't supposed to be precise estimates for the upcoming season, but should at least give you an idea of which teams/players I like, and which I do not.

1. The Kansas City Royals win the AL Central

Maybe this isn't such a bold call - after all, they were in touching distance of the Tigers into September last season. But I think most people expect the Tigers to stroll to another title, and that Cleveland will be their main challenge. I like Kansas City's line-up a lot. Aoki is a prototypical lead-off hitter who'll be a sparkplug atop the line-up. I think Eric Hosmer is primed for a monster season, Alex Gordon will have another big year and Mike Moustakas will finally take a step forward. Billy Butler and Sal Perez are both statistical monsters too. There's a lot to like in this line-up. Pitching wise, James Shields is going to have a big load on his shoulders with the departure of Ervin Santana, but Vargas, Guthrie and Chen should at least be reliable innings eaters, and I think top prospects Yordano Ventura and Kyle Zimmer will have big impacts in the second half.

2. The Los Angeles Dodgers miss the playoffs

The main reason this prediction is bold is because the NL West has suddenly become the weakest division in baseball. The Dodgers were the only team to finish above .500 last season, and their unbelievable second half dominance leads most people to believe they'll repeat as NL West champs. I'm not so sure. The line-up is packed with promise, led by talented youngster Yasiel Puig, but also has a lot of question marks. Puig and Ramirez are due for some regression, and the outfield has platoon and injury concerns, not least with Matt Kemp who is still trying to get back from an ankle issue. Kershaw and Greinke will anchor a strong rotation, but Ryu might get hit around now line-ups are familiar with his stuff and Haren and Maholm have question marks over their production. This team could easily win 100 games, but you've got to be bold.

3. Giancarlo Stanton hits 50 home runs

Yeah, I'm doing that again. Since his arrival in the Majors several years ago I have been a huge believer in Giancarlo Stanton's ability, and this year is no different. He took something of a step back last season, hitting just .249 with 24 homers in an injury-riddled season. He has only played 150 games once in a season, and those injury problems will be a worry again for the Marlins this season. But when healthy he has prodigious power as he showed in 2012, and he'll be keen to prove he can lead this young team. I'm just hoping he can stay on the field. And if you've ever seen a more majestic home run than this you can count yourself lucky:

4. Jose Fernandez wins the Cy Young award

And the Marlins win the World Series! Ok, maybe this one is a bit of a stretch, but in case you didn't notice it, Fernandez was really good last year. No, not good for a 20 year old rookie, but good for any pitcher in any league. He had a 2.19 ERA and minuscule 0.98 WHIP on his way to more than a strikeout per inning and a well deserved rookie of the year title. It's hard to imagine him bettering those stats, and he only earned third place in Cy Young voting. But what if he gets better? For a start he'll probably pitch a few more innings, maybe bump up from 172 innings to around 190 if he can stay healthy. This should allow him to rack up more strikeouts and maybe more wins as he goes deeper into games. Furthermore, Fernandez was the best pitcher in baseball in the second half of 2013, with a ridiculous 1.32 ERA. He's said he wants to challenge an ERA of 1.95 this season, and you know what, I think the talented 21 year old could.

5. Yordano Ventura and Danny Salazar are the best pitchers in the AL Central

The AL Central is stacked with quality arms, from Detroit's incredible front three to the perennially underrated Chris Sale. So why do I think that two untried youngsters will dominate this division? Danny Salazar put up some eye-popping numbers in his small big league stint last season, with a 3.12 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and better than a strikeout per inning. He also did this to Miguel Cabrera:

Maybe the scariest thing, is that some metrics see room for improvement. Stolen from Jared Cross's ESPN article is this incredible stat: 'According to xxFIP, Salazar's 2013 season was the best performance by any starting pitcher in the PITCHf/x era (since 2007, that is) who faced at least 200 batters. In short, based on the most granular numbers available, as well as his repertoire, we can't rule out the possibility that Salazar is the best pitcher in baseball right now. He might be about to show it.'

As for Yordano Ventura, I'm going off nothing but hope and naivety. There's no question that Ventura has talent. The slight of frame fireballer can dial his fastball up and beyond 100mph and has one of the filthiest breaking balls you're likely to see. His command and third pitch needs work, but the first few times he faces teams he could blow right through them. If KC want to compete this season, they're going to need Ventura and Zimmer to be impact arms as soon as they hit the Majors.

6. Cliff Lee strikes out 100 hitters looking and walks less than 25

And remains criminally underrated. Lee's name never comes up under discussions of the Majors best pitcher, in fact he's barely been considered his team's best pitcher for several seasons. But what we're seeing in Cliff Lee is a pitcher who has perfected his craft. Lee's stuff is not dominating. On scouting measurements, none of his pitches would rate as plus. His fastball is pretty straight without much velocity, his breaking pitches are decent but not baffling and his change-up is nothing better than solid. Yet Lee continues to whiff hitters at ridiculous rates, and the clear reason is because his control is about four light years ahead of any other pitcher in the game. He struck out 220 hitters last season, almost exactly one per inning, including an incredible 93 called strikeouts. He walked 32. He compiled 7.3 WAR, an astonishing number for a pitcher who, with all due respect, is fairly unexciting. Philly fans might not have a lot to look forward to, but Cliff Lee should be one of them.

7. Mike Trout puts up 13 WAR

Didn't we all think he would regress last season? Instead as every other Angel struggled, Trout was once again the best all-round player in baseball, raising his game to a different level, drawing an AL leading 110 walks. He looked at a lot of strike threes last season, which no doubt contributed to all the walks, but with him promising to be more aggressive early in the count, we could see an increase in counting stats. Trout's power is immense and his steals and defense should bounce back. He's slashing .414/.460/.828 this Spring. With 160 games under his belt, why couldn't he put up the best season in baseball history?

8. Jason Heyward finishes in the top 5 of MVP voting

In 2010, Heyward burst into baseball with a fantastic rookie season, slashing .277/.393/.456 and putting up 4.6 WAR. After a down season in 2011, he bounced back in 2012, but my most estimations 2013 was another disappointing year for the talented right fielder. The good thing is, all signs point to positive regression, as long as he can stay healthy. Heyward's line drive rate of 21.4% was a career high, and suggests that he was unlucky with the .281 batting average on balls in play. If that number jumps up closer to .300, or maybe even goes beyond to around .320, then we'll see an increase in his average from .254 to something more like .270, .280 or if he gets lucky, even .300. His strikeout rate is on its way down, and his walk rate has remained impressive, so he should get on base a lot, and the increase in at-bats from hitting lead-off will allow him to pad his home run and stolen base numbers. Heyward is still just 24 years old, and has shown underrated signs of improvement in recent seasons. This is the year he puts it all together.

9. But counterpart Bryce Harper takes the MVP award

21. That is how old Bryce Harper will be for the entirety of the 2014 season. Immeasurably talented, the only thing that has held Harper back is his injury history, after an ugly collision with the wall hampered his playing time last season. When he's on the field, he's an absolute force, and I think this year he's able to stay healthy and put up the kind of video game numbers scouts have always predicted from him. His walk and strikeout rates are elite, so he should be able to sustain an average at least around .275, and he has extraordinary raw power, so in 150 games he should be able to hit 30 if not challenge 40 home runs. The Nats have shown they are happy to let him steal, so 20 swiped bags shouldn't be out of the question, and his defense in right field has never been an issue. If Harper can stay healthy, look out.

10. Edwin Encarnacion has a better season than Miguel Cabrera

So to put it another way, I see E5 competing for the AL MVP title. I don't really know how, but Encarnacion's massive 2013 season was overlooked by most people. He garnered just a couple of 8th/9th placed votes in MVP voting, and isn't being considered in the same league as Cabrera. But Encarnacion is one of the best all-round hitters in the Majors. He put together a .272/.370/.534 triple-slash last season with 36 home runs. Oh yeah, and he walked 82 times and struck out just 62(!!!) times. This BB:K rate is simply unparalleled, and the fact it's done by a guy with incredible power is simply unfathomable. His BABIP was actually pretty low last season, and whilst he'll never be a high BABIP guy, why couldn't he hit .290, challenge a .400 OBP and hit something like 40 homers again. That's Miggy-esque. Oh, and any excuse to pull this GIF out:

So, there you have it. I'm not expecting to get these predictions bang on, but they should give you some kind of idea of who I like and who I don't this season. If I can get something like 3 or 4 right then I'll consider it pretty successful!