2012 Season
The 2012 season was, for the most part, highly successful for the Reds. On the offensive side of the ball, Joey Votto played just 111 games, but the Reds were able to get production from elsewhere, with Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce and rookie Todd Frazier all putting together strong offensive season. The rotation was led by NL Cy Young contender Johnny Cueto, who won 19 games to go with his 2.78 ERA and 5.8 WAR - a feat more incredible when you consider how hitter-friendly his home ballpark is. He was ably supported by Mat Latos, Homer Bailey and Bronson Arroyo, who formed one of the more durable rotations in the Majors. The bullpen was led by the lights-out Aroldis Chapman who put together an incredible season with 122 strikeouts and 38 saves in 71.2 innings, with his astonishing 3.6 WAR a testament to his 9th inning abilities. Ultimately, the season ended in disappointment as the Reds threw away a 2-0 NLDS lead and were left to rue what could have been after a 97-65 regular season.
Off-Season Moves
IN: Shin-Soo Choo, Jason Donald, Manny Parra, Miguel Olivo
OUT: Scott Rolen, Drew Stubbs, Didi Gregorius, Ryan Madson, Dioner Navarro
Overview: It was a simple, but effective season for the Reds as they addressed their only need from the 2012 season by bringing in a lead-off hitter in the form of Shin-Soo Choo. The lead-off spot had been contributing a .254 OBP in 2012, so there is no doubt that Choo is an offensive upgrade. His defense in center-field will be more shaky, and it may well force Jay Bruce to move over to center, or even force the early call-up of much-hyped prospect Billy Hamilton. The Reds saw a few big names walk out the door, but nothing that they would have really needed this season, so all in all they addressed their one need pretty comprehensively. Overall grade: 6/10
| Expected Opening Day Line-up | ||
|---|---|---|
| Position | Player | Projected stat line (OBP/SLG/WAR) |
| CF | Shin-Soo Choo | .374/.440/3.7 |
| 2B | Brandon Phillips | .327/.432/3.5 |
| 1B | Joey Votto | .422/.538/5.6 |
| LF | Ryan Ludwick | .327/.449/1.6 |
| RF | Jay Bruce | .342/.518/3.6 |
| 3B | Todd Frazier | .325/.476/2.4 |
| SS | Zack Cozart | .308/.415/2.8 |
| C | Ryan Hanigan | .367/.357/2.0 |
| Expected rotation | ||
|---|---|---|
| Starter | Player | Projected stat line (IP/ERA/WAR) |
| 1 | Johnny Cueto | 215/3.52/3.5 |
| 2 | Mat Latos | 208/3.16/3.8 |
| 3 | Homer Bailey | 210/3.86/2.7 |
| 4 | Bronson Arroyo | 218/3.88/0.7 |
| 5 | Aroldis Chapman | 67/2.42/2.5 |
Position Players
A quick look at this teams projections gives you a pretty good idea why they won 97 games last year. Choo has posted a career OBP of .381, and should be the perfect table-setter for this potent line-up, although every projection system has him down to be a horrible defensive center-fielder. Joey Votto is the clear stand-out bat in this line-up, with incredible line-drive rates leading to scary contact numbers - he has never hit below .297. This hitting ability is backed up by extraordinary plate discipline that saw him draw 94 walks in 111 games last season. He is a very good bet to lead the Majors in OBP. Some people seem to be waiting for Jay Bruce to truly break out, but I think we've seen all we're going to see him from so far. He has prodigious power, with 30 homers almost a certainty if he can stay healthy. He's never going to compete for a batting title with a career .255 average, but has shown an improvement in his plate discipline that should mean he gets on base most of the time. He could have a chance at 40 homers if he can become a less streaky hitters, and is certainly a big threat at the heart of the Reds line-up.
Brandon Phillips has seen his counting stats decline a little in recent years, but he continues to get on base at a decent clip, play lights-out defense and perhaps most importantly stay healthy with seven straight seasons of 140+ games under his belt. Todd Frazier will be looking to build off an impressive rookie campaign in which he hit .273 and slugged .498 now that he has a full-time role at third base all to himself. The sleeper in this line-up is catcher Ryan Hanigan, who quietly had a great season behind the plate in Cincinnati. His .365 OBP was the highlight stat, and whilst the power is non-existent he plays great defense to go with it. He might be overtaken in the pecking order at some point by young catcher Devin Mesoraco, but Hanigan is not a drain on the team's production. Overall this is a team that not only has the 4-5 win guys, but the 2-3 win guys to back them up. The addition of Choo filled a major hole, and I see no reason why this line-up can't be one of the best in baseball again. Overall grade: 8/10.
Pitching
The Reds pitching staff allowed the fewest runs in the NL last season, despite pitching in a hitter-friendly home park. The rotation was a point of real strength, with Johnny Cueto putting together the best season of his career to lead it. His ERA has been incredibly low for both of the past two seasons, and although he doesn't have great strikeout stuff, he doesn't give up free passes and is able to keep fly balls in the park. Mat Latos might be ready for a big season in the Reds rotation, whilst Homer Bailey will try to kick on after a 2012 that was highlighted by a late-season no-hitter. Aroldis Chapman's move to the rotation has not been without its controversy but I believe it is the right move if he is able to transition successfully. Something tells me that management will get cold feet and move him back to the bullpen as soon as possible, but he is too special a pitcher to be restricted to 70 innings of work per year.
The move to the rotation for Chapman does weaken the bullpen though. The Reds signed Jonathan Broxton to an extension, and he will start the season as their closer. He has a good deal of 9th inning experience, but isn't a particularly gifted pitcher, although if he can repeat the 27 saves from last season then the Reds will be happy. Sean Marshall showed at times last season that he can be a dominant reliever from the 'pen, and he will be the main left-hander for the Reds this season. After a rough April, Sam LeCure was terrific for the Reds, and Logan Ondrusek will be hoping it's the zero earned runs he allowed in April that can repeat itself, rather than the more erratic rest of season performances. Overall, this is a rotation with strength from 1 to 5, and a bullpen that should be able to repeat their fine performances from a year ago. Overall grade: 9/10.
Prospects
The main guy in the Reds system for the 2013 season with be electric center-fielder Billy Hamilton, who broke a baseball record by stealing 155 bases in the Minor Leagues last season. He is making the transition from shortstop to the outfield, but assuming he can avoid becoming the next Dee Gordon and make enough contact to exploit his speed, he could easily be an impact player in the second half for the Reds. The other player to watch out for is left-hander Tony Cingrani. He has been downright dominant in his Minor League career so far, striking out 261 batters and allowing just 137 hits in 200 innings over the past couple of seasons. There is no spot for him in the rotation at the moment, but the Reds may choose to put him in the bullpen or call him up in case of injury. Overall grade: 7/10
Overview
This is a team that could become a dynasty. It's rotation is stacked with excellent pitchers, the line-up has studs that are ably backed by above average position players and the farm system will be providing new talent where needed. The health of Joey Votto will, as always, be a critical factor, but I see no reason why this team shouldn't be favourites for the NL Central, and possibly even an outside bet for a World Series appearance.
Prediction: 99-63
Gif to Watch
I'm afraid I'm going to have to cheat a little and show two GIFs at this point, but they're worth it, I promise.
Well that looks worth it right? You came here looking for dazzling defensive plays, jaw-dropping curveballs and ridiculous home runs. This GIF, or perhaps the story surrounding it, is one of the coolest pieces of baseball trivia I've learnt this year. That pop-up by Joey Votto was just his second infield pop-up since the end of the 2009 season. Since 2009, there have been two more perfect games than Joey Votto infield pop-ups. To put that stat into perspective, Albert Pujols has hit more than 280 infield fly balls in his career. Not only that, but supposedly Joey Votto has only pulled a foul ball into the stands once in his major league career. But that stat is so absurd it doesn't bear thinking about.
The second GIF is, fortunately for you heat-lovers, a return to the norm:
That Aroldis Chapman fastball is nigh-on unhittable. And whilst he'll need to develop the off-speed stuff to become an elite starter, I like his chances with raw stuff like that.
No comments:
Post a Comment