Friday 29 August 2014

Winter Plans: Houston Astros


The 2014 Story

A record of 57-78 might not sound like anything to be proud of, but having failed to eclipse 56 wins since 2010, the Astros have showed clear and promising signs of improvement this season. In Jose Altuve, the team has found it's MVP, with the pint-sized infielder slashing an impressive .332/.369/.434 to go with devastating talent on the bases (49 steals from 56 attempts). Chris Carter has enjoyed a huge breakout, mashing 32 home runs and leading the league since the all-star break. Dexter Fowler has hit well after his arrival in the off-season and talented rookies George Springer and Jon Singleton have shown flashes of brilliance that make the future look bright. On the mound, the Astros have enjoyed a breakout season from Dallas Keuchel, with his 3.05 ERA and team-leading five complete games establishing the southpaw as the ace of the young staff. Collin McHugh has also emerged from irrelevance to make himself a legitimate big-league starter whilst the 'pen has held firm most of the year. The Astros haven't been good in 2014, but quietly they haven't been that bad either.

Major Potential Free Agents

None!

The Astros enter the winter without any real concerns in terms of losing free agents. Most of their players are yet to hit arbitration, while the few veteran players they're letting go of should be easily replaceable. That's not to say that this team doesn't have a lot of holes to fill...

Off-Season Plan

The Astros remain in rebuild mode, and with 2016 probably the year to target to be competitive, they should stay patient this off-season.

Hitting: With Jason Castro and Chris Carter hitting arbitration, the Astros might want to think about signing them to long-term deals or trading them away, especially Carter who has soared in trade value this season. Dexter Fowler provides a decent stop-gap option in the outfield, but with Springer and Delino DeShields making their way towards the Majors he's likely surplus to requirements in their long term plans. They should explore options to trade him away for a B-level prospect or two. Jonathan Villar has failed to impress in his short stints with the club, and with second base already filled and top prospect Carlos Correa likely to be arriving soon to fill the shortstop void, he may find himself either demoted or looking for a new team. Matt Dominguez has struggled at the plate for most of his big league career and defensive metrics aren't as keen on him this season as they were last year. It's unlikely the Astros will make anything other than minor dips into free agency for a couple of seasons however.

Pitching: On the rubber, the Astros will presumably return Feldman, Keuchel, McHugh and Oberholtzer to the rotation in 2015, with the final spot to be filled hopefully by Mike Foltynewicz, who struggled with command problems at AAA this year but has the raw stuff and build to be a solid member of the staff if he can develop further this winter. Brad Peacock offers a reliable but poor option, whilst Mark Appel will be an outside shot if he can continue his improvements in AA and Spring Training after having an abysmal start to the season. Chad Qualls is under contract for 2015, but at 36 years of age he serves no real purpose for the Astros so they should look to deal him this winter, even if they get nothing but salary relief in return. The Astros might be well served to try and follow the Chicago Cubs model of signing struggling pitchers to short contracts in the hope they can rediscover some form and trade value. Justin Masterson, Paul Maholm and Wandy Rodriguez are all potential bounceback candidates that could be acquired on the cheap.

Trade Possibilities

The Astros have spent a lot of time and money on developing a stellar farm system, and though they were unable to sign 2014 first overall pick Brady Aiken, they boast some top prospects. Rather than trade them away for value, the Astros would be better served trying to add to their collection. With few valuable pieces to trade away, they might not be able to bolster the farm much however, with Chris Carter likely the only trade candidate that would command anything close to a top prospect. However, if they can make some astute signings, they could be in a great position at the trade deadline next season to make a killing as the Cubs did with Samardzija, so don't rule out a few unexpected trades or signings. A player like Peter Bourjos on the Cardinals could likely be acquired cheap after he struggled this season, but he would fit nicely into the line-up as a platoon option in center field, and open up trade options with Dexter Fowler, Robbie Grossman or Jake Marisnick.

Overview

Astros fans have had to be extremely patient over the past few seasons as their team has struggled to put together a roster that is anything close to Major League calibre. With some top prospects starting to near the Major Leagues, and a front office that apparently is intent on competing soon, these fans will not have to wait much longer. I think the Astros will make some shrewd signings this winter, although a blockbuster trade would surprise me.

Thursday 28 August 2014

Winter Plans: Intro and Los Angeles Angels

With the regular season starting to wind down, and the pennant races heating up, teams that have lost hope for 2014 will be starting to turn an eye towards 2015. In this series of posts I will take an early look at what the winter plans for every team in the Major Leagues could, or rather should, be. At this point, trying to guess what might happen with regards to trades, free agency and line-ups is sheer speculation, but I'll try to keep my predictions as realistic and feasible as possible. I mean, I can't be worse than Jim Bowden right?!

We'll kick off the series in the AL West, and the current pace-setters both of the West and the American League, the Los Angeles Angels.

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The 2014 Story

After two straight seasons of disappointment in 2012 and 2013 led to a grand total of zero play-off games, the Angels have righted the ship in a major way in 2014. Perennial MVP candidate Mike Trout has once again led the way after signing a six-year, 140 million dollar contract in the off-season, hitting .291/.378/.565 to date and reaching the 30 home run plateau last night. Albert Pujols has quelled any concerns about his sudden and stunning descent into mediocrity by hitting a respectable .276/.333/.469, but the real line-up boost has come from breakout candidate Kole Calhoun who has made the lead-off spot his own to the tune of an .816 OPS. Josh Hamilton has continued to struggle with injuries and form making his contract look increasingly bloated, whilst David Freese has provided few answers for the Halos at the hot corner.

On the rubber, the Angels have seen their biggest revelation, and the one major reason for it is the success of 26 year old flame-thrower Garrett Richards. Having struggled to secure his spot in the rotation ever since his call-up in 2011, Richards had come into his own this season as the ace of the staff with a 2.61 ERA and 8.75 K/9 until a devastating knee injury cut his season short. Hector Santiago and Matt Shoemaker have pitched well above their expected contributions this season, whilst Jered Weaver and CJ Wilson have done their best to combat declining repertoires. Highly touted young left-hander Tyler Skaggs was having a strong second stint with the Angels until an injury to his UCL resigned him to Tommy John surgery and likely ruled him out of the entire 2015 season. In the bullpen, Ernesto Frieri struggled in the closer role, and was then traded, but mid-season acquisition Huston Street has thrived in his place, saving 10 games with a 1.20 ERA since joining the Angels. Joe Smith, Fernando Salas and Mike Morin have also combined to turn a previous weakness into a strength this season.

Major Potential Free Agents

Huston Street, RP ($7m club option)

The Angels don't have many major players hitting free agency this winter, with their only real dilemma coming in the form of Huston Street. Considering the Angels struggles to find a consistent closer and the success of Street in 2014, it would surprise me if they didn't exercise this option given the obvious discount compared to market value. David Freese will be eligible for arbitration for the second year, and after agreeing to a $5m dollar deal this past winter, the Angels might be happy to cut ties this season depending on Freese's demands. Howie Kendrick and Chris Iannetta will both be entering the final years of team-friendly contracts, although how much money will be available for extensions remains to be seen.

Off-Season Plan

Assuming the Angels don't implode down the stretch, they'll make the play-offs, at least as a wildcard, and will have a decent chance to go deep, although the injury to Richards leaves them without a clear ace. After making major free agent splashes in 2011 (Pujols and C.J. Wilson) and 2012 (Hamilton) and given the state of the market this off-season, it's unlikely that they'll be particularly active this winter. However, there are still some holes to fill in the line-up, as well as a bullpen to fortify so they could make a few under the radar moves to boost their 2015 chances.

Pitching: Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson are both signed to long, expensive deals and will presumably retain their spots in the rotation given their diminishing trade value. Garrett Richards is expected to make a full recovery in time for opening day, and will assuredly shoot straight to the top of the pecking order when he does so. Hector Santiago has proven an extremely astute acquisition by the Halos, and will only hit arbitration this winter, so he'll most likely retain his spot. Matt Shoemaker has emerged as not only a viable fifth starter, but a valuable member of the rotation this season, and he'll stay extremely affordable until at least 2017. Assuming none of these starters suffer from injury, I expect the Angels to return the same starting five next year, with Skaggs unlikely to get back on a mound until 2016.

In the bullpen, the Halos will likely exercise their option on Huston Street and he will return to ninth inning duty. Jason Grilli will hit free agency, but given his declining effectiveness, this won't be a major factor for the Angels considering Fernando Salas, Mike Morin, Joe Smith and Kevin Jepsen will all be returning to the Angels 'pen next season. Vinnie Pestano and Cam Bedrosian are both high upside relievers that have disappointed this season but should have impacts in 2015. One area the Angels will need to find an upgrade is in left-handed relief, with Joe Thatcher hitting free agency. With arms like Phil Coke, Tom Gorzelanny and Andrew Miller hitting the market this winter, the Angels will presumably look for a cheap option to bolster their battery.

Hitting: The Angels boast one of the more dangerous line-ups in baseball, at least on paper, and with none of their stars hitting free agency this winter, it's hard to imagine them making much of a splash. David Freese has struggled in his time with the Angels (1.2 WAR this season), but assuming they can get him back at a reasonable discount he's probably their starting third baseman on opening day next season. Should they look for an upgrade, Chase Headley, Pablo Sandoval and ex-Angel Alberto Callaspo will all become available this winter. Other than at third base, the Angels have few areas that need upgrading, so will likely look for a left-handed partner to platoon CJ Cron as designated hitter and act as a bench option. Adam Dunn, Ichiro Suzuki and Nate Schierholtz will all be potential options for the Angels to consider. Other than that, it will be filling out the bench for the Angels, who have most positions locked down for the near future.

Trade Possibilities

The Angels have a depleted farm system after seasons of trading away their best talent as well as poor drafting and developing. Taylor Lindsey and Kaleb Cowart are two infield prospects with upside, but both have a lot of developing left in the minors and are unlikely to demand much attention in trade talks. I'd be surprised if the Angels make anything other than minor moves this off-season, and it's likely to be that way for the foreseeable future given the massive and lengthy contracts they've handed out to Pujols, Hamilton and C.J. Wilson as well as the depleted state of their farm. With several players entering the last season of their contracts, the Angels may look to extend some players, or indeed trade them away, but given how competitive they've been this season, I think the Angels will wait until at least June 2015 to really assess their roster.

Overview

The Angels are unlikely to do much this winter, and in their defense, why should they. The team that's been touted as one of the best in the AL has finally come through on the promises this year, and with a line-up that boasts a lot of potential and a rotation that is finally consistent and productive, it would take a number of injuries or mishaps for the Halos to make much noise this off-season.

Thursday 21 August 2014

Austin Jackson and Perfection

One of the great features of baseball is that every game starts with a clean slate. You never quite know what's going to happen. Sure, the Los Angeles Dodgers will probably beat the San Diego Padres tonight, because one team is 71-57 and has Clayton Kershaw on the mound and the other team is 59-66 and is sending Tyson Ross to the hill. But there's a reason they play the game. There's a reason that, as the great Earl Weaver once said, 'you've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance'. On any given night, in any given at-bat, the unexpected can happen, and as a baseball fan, it's this slim chance that keeps us glued to our seat. Sure, it's not often that we get to see something remarkable, something almost unexplainable, but that's what makes this game so special.

Armando Galarraga entered his start on June 2nd 2010 with some pressure on his shoulders. As Rod Allen said during Galarraga's warm up, he needed to earn the number five spot in the rotation. He'd made just three appearances that season, and was hanging on to his rotation spot by a thread. The game started innocuously enough, Galarraga's pitches had life and he was controlling them well, but he wasn't exactly dominant. The Indians weren't hitting the ball hard, and when they did, it was right at the defense. Suddenly, Galarraga had retired 18 in a row without breaking a sweat. When he coasted through the seventh and eighth innings without reaching a two-ball count on any of the six hitters, it suddenly looked like Armando Galarraga, the 28 year old journeyman, was about to complete a feat that had been done just 20 times in baseball history: a perfect game.

Enter the ninth. At the plate, Mark Grudzielanek, a journeyman shortstop who had enjoyed a long and profitable major league career, that would ultimately end just a week after this game. Grudzielanek hammered the first pitch... and this happened


Without the context, this is an incredible catch, the kind that will make highlight reels and SportsCenter Top 10 and sports writers and fans tweet excitedly. With the context, this is probably one of the best catches you will ever see, and the kind of moment that can make a baseball fan for life. Let's break down the catch.


If you ask most major league hitters where they would like a pitch to be, I guarantee it's not far from that spot. Belt high, right over the middle of the plate, this is a mistake by Galarraga, one of the few he made. The catcher sets up on the inside of the plate, and Galarraga just misses his spot. And to Grudzielanek's credit, he punished it. This was easily the hardest hit ball all night for the Indians. For once, it wasn't right at one of the Tiger position players, it was headed to the left-center field gap, and deep. This is a screengrab of the above gif right after the camera angle changes.


The outfield is shaded to the opposite field, meaning that Austin Jackson, the Tigers center fielder actually starts on the wrong side of the field, and has to go back over to left-center field in order to make the catch. It also looks like he was playing pretty shallow, which is unsurprising given Grudzielanek had a career .393 slugging percentage. I've crudely drawn on a red dot in the approximate place Jackson makes the catch. To my best estimations, there is about five and a half seconds between the moment the ball makes contact with Grudzielanek's bat and the moment it nestles in Jackson's glove. At this point in the play, Jackson has already made several strides towards the ball, so he obviously got a pretty good jump, but he still has well over 100 feet of ground to make up in order to make a play on the ball, never mind the fact he has to judge the trajectory and the distance.

Ultimately, Jackson either misjudges the flight of the ball or has too much distance to cover. His route to the ball wasn't perfect, but it was damn close. Unfortunately, Jackson is right handed, so his glove is on the wrong side to make a good attempt at a catch, to even get his glove on the ball would take an incredible feat of hand-eye co-ordination. In the end, probably out of sheer desperation, Jackson throws his glove out in hope.


Maybe he could have tried a backhanded dive, but he hadn't slowed down from his top velocity and with his back to home plate he would have been looking at some kind of Jim Edmonds-esque miracle to manage to get the ball in his glove having already covered a lot more real estate than Edmonds did. So Jackson flung his glove out and somehow, somehow the ball stuck. The Tigers dugout went berserk, the stadium left it's feet and Armando Galarraga cracked a wry smile. Ultimately, this game would go down in history for all the wrong reasons when Jim Joyce blew the call on the 27th out, costing Galarraga his perfect game, and likely costing Jackson a genuine argument in greatest catch of all time discussions.

Jackson has never managed to live up to his hype as a prospect, and the fielding metrics actually rate him as a below average defender over the past couple of seasons. On June 2nd 2010 however, he made one of the greatest catches, given the circumstances, in baseball history and earned himself immortality with five and a half seconds of magic.