2012 Season
It was another lost season for the Colorado Rockies. They came out of it with the worst record in franchise history, narrowly avoided the ignominy of losing 100 games as they ended the season with a 64-98 record. The pitching rotation struggled mightily playing in the thin air of Coors Field, and the team actually tried a 4-man rotation on a 75 pitch limit at one stage. There were some bright spots, notably strong rookie performances from Wilin Rosario, Josh Rutledge and Jordan Pacheco, but the Rockies will be hoping the only way is up from here.
Off-Season Moves
IN: Wilton Lopez, Chris Volstad, Yorvit Torrealba, Ryan Wheeler, Walt Weiss
OUT: Alex White, Matt Reynolds, Jason Giambi, Jim Tracy
Overview: An eerily quiet off-season for the Rockies. The biggest move they made was likely getting rid of Jim Tracy and bringing in former player Walt Weiss to manage the team. Wilton Lopez gives them some help in the bullpen, but Alex White was a high-upside arm who could have been part of the rotation. Other than that it's the departure of some older players, and the arrival of some others. Maybe Yorvit Torrealba will help with Rosario's development. Overall grade: 2/10.
| Expected Opening Day Line-up | ||
|---|---|---|
| Position | Player | Projected stat line (OBP/SLG/WAR) |
| CF | Dexter Fowler | .369/.436/3.9 |
| 2B | Josh Rutledge | .308/.465/3.6 |
| LF | Carlos Gonzalez | .362/.516/4.9 |
| SS | Troy Tulowitzki | .372/.522/5.3 |
| RF | Michael Cuddyer | .333/.447/2.2 |
| 1B | Todd Helton | .383/.425/1.4 |
| C | Wilin Rosario | .303/.514/2.6 |
| 3B | Jordan Pacheco | .330/.402/1.4 |
| Expected rotation | ||
|---|---|---|
| Starter | Player | Projected stat line (IP/ERA/WAR) |
| 1 | Jhoulys Chacin | 163/3.92/1.2 |
| 2 | Jorge de la Rosa | 151/4.23/0.4 |
| 3 | Jeff Francis | 164/4.55/0.9 |
| 4 | Juan Nicasio | 106/4.25/1.4 |
| 5 | Drew Pomeranz | 134/4.96/1.0 |
Position Players
The strength of the team is clearly in the line-up. Troy Tulowitzki will be looking to bounce back from an injury-plagued 2012 season and once more establish himself as the top shortstop in the game. I like his chances of doing so, and apparently so do ZiPS who give him a healthy 5.3 WAR projection. I think Josh Rutledge's projections seem a little optimistic, although the WAR is bumped up by a surprising positive defensive rating projection, despite the fact he was pretty poor at shortstop last season.
I'd be surprised if Helton ends the season as the first baseman, as young slugger Tyler Colvin looked promising last season and should be given a chance against right-handed pitching, possibly in a platoon with Cuddyer too. Rosario will be a good bet to lead all catchers in the home run department, but his propensity for strikeouts and shoddy defense have the projection systems understandably wary. This is a line-up that strongly depends on the production of Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, which can be a weakness when one or both struggle with injuries, as was the case last year. If the Rockies are out of contention, expect the whole team to be shopped in August, because it's clear this team needs serious rebuilding work. Overall grade: 6/10.
Pitching
The rotation has long been an issue for this Colorado team. Pitching at Coors Field is extremely difficult, as breaking pitches don't break and routine fly balls just don't come down in the thin air. The clear issue with the rotation that can be discerned from the projections is a simple lack of innings. The rotation does not have a workhorse who can get through 200 innings year after year. Pomeranz is a decent talent who has yet to show he can convert his tools to success on the big league level. The Rockies will need him, Chacin and de la Rosa to be lights-out if they want a chance this season.
2012 was Rafael Betancourt's first full season in the closer role, and he performed his task admirably on his way to 31 saves with a 2.81 ERA. At age 37 he is unlikely to be the closer of the future for the Rockies, so he may become trade bait later in the season if he is able to keep up his success. New acquisition Wilton Lopez is a wiry arm in the pen, but doesn't have electric stuff whilst Rex Brothers will hope his stellar bullpen work in 2012 continues. The reliever to watch may well be Matt Belisle, who led the NL with 80 appearances last season on his way to a 2.1 win season - impressive for a bullpen man. Ultimately, the success of the pitching staff is going to be greatly limited due to the fact they play half their games at Coors Field. If they can keep themselves in with a chance in games then it's job done. Overall grade: 3/10
Prospects
There's only one name on people's lips in Colorado as far as prospects are concerned, and that is Nolan Arenado. He hit .285 with 12 homers in AA last season, although scouts reportedly said he was playing with little energy. He looks set to at least start the year in the minors. Tim Wheeler may be a bench outfielder for the Rockies this season, and left-hander Edwar Cabrera will be looking to improve his fastball command to match his plus changeup - if he can do so then he may be a nice surprise for the Rockies. The top prospects in this system are still a long way away though. Overall grade: 5/10
Overview
This is a team that looks like it's building for the future, but it doesn't yet have the farm system to be able to put an ETA on that contending team. Tulowitzki and Gonzalez give fans enough reasons to keep watching, but one or both may be on their way out soon if the team can't turn its fortunes around. The pitching is nowhere near good enough yet, and another season as NL West bottom-dwellers may be on the cards.
Prediction: 71-91
Gif to Watch
So... what does that GIF mean? Betancourt throws a fastball over the plate and Jason Castro fouls it off, right? However, this GIF is awesome when given a little perspective. That pitch from Betancourt was the furthest inside he pitched to a left handed batter up to August 31st, and possibly for the rest of the season. He simply peppers the outer half when pitching to left-handers, which might explain why he hasn't hit a batter since 2003, the longest streak in the Majors by far.
This GIF becomes more amazing when you compare Betancourt's heat map to left-handers:
with say, Jamey Wright's heat map to left-handers:
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