2012 Season
For the Braves, the 2012 season had a special narrative, as it was the final year in the long, successful and ultimately hall-of-fame bound career of Chipper Jones. Even in his age 40 season, Chipper continued to play at an elite level, with a .387/.377/455 triple-slash in 112 game. The Braves 94-68 record was one of the finest in the Majors, but due to the success of the Nationals they were forced to settle with a wildcard spot. In the play-offs they fell victim to a controversial infield fly rule at the first hurdle and bowed out to the Cardinals. There were bright performances on this team though, particularly from third-year slugger Jason Heyward after a down year in 2011. His triple slash of .269/.335/479 with 27 homers showed he was beginning to meet the expectations he was given as a rookie. The breakout player on the mound was 27 year old right-hander Kris Medlen. The 5 foot 10 pitcher had excelled from the bullpen, but it was as a starter than Medlen really took off in 2012, logging 138 innings at a remarkable 1.57 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. From the bullpen, Craig Kimbrel solidified his reputation as the best closer in baseball, with 42 saves, a 1.01 ERA and mindblowing 16.66 K/9. Overall, it was a season that promised much but ultimately came up short in October.
Off-Season Moves
IN: B.J. Upton, Justin Upton, Gerald Laird, Jordan Walden, Chris Johnson
OUT: Michael Bourn, Matt Diaz, Eric Hinske, David Ross, Tommy Hanson, Martin Prado, Randall Delgado
Overview: A blockbuster off-season for the Braves. After signing B.J. Upton early in the off-season to fill the hole in center field, they went all out and brought in his brother Justin, in a trade I felt they came out on top in. The two Upton brothers have enormous potential, with 30 homer speed and power apiece. They've battled inconsistencies but there's no doubt in my mind that they make this team better. Jordan Walden is a nice arm to acquire, and if they can translate his 100mph stuff into outs he could be a bargain. The exit of Martin Prado will have been tough to stomach for many, as he had quietly turned into a superb contributor, but the arrival of two premier sluggers has arguably given the Braves the best outfield in baseball, both at the plate and in the field. Overall grade: 9/10.
| Expected Opening Day Line-up | ||
|---|---|---|
| Position | Player | Projected stat line (OBP/SLG/WAR) |
| SS | Andrelton Simmons | .351/.416/2.5 |
| RF | Jason Heyward | .360/.483/4.3 |
| LF | Justin Upton | .372/.492/3.3 |
| C | Brian McCann | .347/.467/3.6 |
| CF | B.J. Upton | .329/.436/3.8 |
| 1B | Freddie Freeman | .358/.481/3.0 |
| 2B | Dan Uggla | .341/.439/2.2 |
| 3B | Juan Francisco | .308/.502/1.4 |
| Expected rotation | ||
|---|---|---|
| Starter | Player | Projected stat line (IP/ERA/WAR) |
| 1 | Kris Medlen | 190/2.94/3.1 |
| 2 | Tim Hudson | 193/3.36/2.5 |
| 3 | Mike Minor | 189/3.76/2.3 |
| 4 | Paul Maholm | 198/4.00/2.2 |
| 5 | Julio Teheran | 149/4.23/1.0 |
Position Players
This highly talented group of position players is led by the aforementioned off-season acquisition Justin Upton. After putting up MVP-calibre numbers in 2011, Upton cooled off a little last year (although .280/.355/.430 isn't a terrible triple-slash). Some, or indeed much of this could be attributed to a thumb injury that hampered him all season and may have sapped him of some power. However, he is still aged just 25 and in my opinion has MVP-type seasons in the tank. Joining him is brother B.J. who spent the first eight years of his career in Tampa Bay before this switch. He's a streaky hitter, striking out a lot, but has an elite power/speed combination with 20+ homers and 30+ steals in both of the past two seasons. Last seasons drop in walks is concerning, but his elite defense and the possibility he is able to sustain some sort of consistency make him a great option in center field. Joining the two Upton brothers is Jason Heyward, who has quickly become the face of the franchise now. Like B.J. Upton he strikes out too much to sustain an elite average, but has shown decent plate discipline and the power showed up last season. He may well have an MVP season in him at some stage in his career; it's easy to forget he is just 23.
Atop the line-up is a player I have come to love in recent weeks. Simmons is widely regarded as one of, if not the best defensive shortstops in baseball, and on defense alone could be a Major League regular. However, he projects as more than a defensive specialist, having won a minor league hitting title. He has superb contact skills, enough that sustaining an average higher than .280 should be easy, and .300 seasons could be possible. He doesn't draw a lot of walks, but gets on base at a reasonable clip and has started to grow into some power and a little speed. He won't set the world alight, but atop this potent line-up he could be a valuable asset.
Brian McCann will start the season on the disabled list, but should be ready to take over shortly afterwards, and if he can stay healthy, he can be a highly productive hitter. Freddie Freeman's average dropped last year, but his plate discipline improved and he began to show he could have a good deal of power and at the age of 23 has room to grow. Juan Francisco will most likely be the left-handed half of a platoon with Chris Johnson, which should cover some of the offensive production lost in the Prado trade. Overall this is a unit with a lot of pop but a propensity to strike out. There'll be some games that resemble a home-run derby and some that have opposing pitchers racking up K's, but I think Braves fans have good reason to expect more of the former. Overall grade: 8/10.
Pitching
After taking over as a starter full time in July, Medlen not only adapted to the rotation, but thrived in it, striking out hitters at will and becoming one of the finest pitchers in the Majors. He doesn't have overpowering stuff, but his pinpoint control allows him to spot an excellent changeup (hitters swung and missed at 26% of them) and he keeps hitters off-balance with ease. Behind him will be veteran right-hander Tim Hudson, who will be entering his 15th season in the big leagues. Despite this, Hudson has shown no signs that age is catching up with him, with his 3.62 ERA and 1.21 WHIP going largely unnoticed in a fine season. Mike Minor had a disastrous start of the season, with ERA's of 4.68, 9.95 and 4.55 in the first three months of the season. The turnaround was dramatic though, with just 23 earned runs in his last 93.2 innings spanning across July, August and September. If he can continue in that rich vein of form he could be a valuable third starter. Maholm was solid in his time at Atlanta last year, but there will be pressure on Julio Teheran after an ugly season at AAA in which he posted a 5.08 ERA. If he is unable to adapt to big league hitters then he'll be the first player demoted when Brandon Beachy returns after Tommy John surgery.
The bullpen is led by the outstanding Craig Kimbrel, who looks like he could break any and every Major League record for relief pitchers with his overpowering stuff. Although Jonny Venters struggled a little in 2012 (1.52 WHIP), Eric O'Flaherty took up the lefty role with aplomb, with an ERA of 1.73 proving that 2011 was no fluke and that he is one of the most dominant relievers in the game. Jordan Walden will be a bit of a rebuilding job for the Braves, but if he can translate his stuff into outs he could be dominant in his own right. Christian Martinez, Luis Avilan and Cory Gearrin will be expected to carry the load in middle relief, and have proven they can do so consistently, so this 'pen should continue to be one of the best in baseball. Overall, I think the rotation lacks an ace if Medlen regresses, and they'll be hoping father time does not catch up to Tim Hudson. The bullpen is downright dominant however, and could even win games by themselves. Overall grade: 7/10.
Prospects
The Braves farm system is not particularly loaded, with the best prospect probably Julio Teheran who will make the jump to the Majors this season. Evan Gattis has beat up on minor league pitching in recent seasons, but likely won't be able to translate it to Major League success, although he may get a chance as a bench bat this season. Other than that, any talent left in the Braves system is a few seasons away, so they will be hoping the youngsters already on the big league club continue to produce at a high level. Overall grade: 4/10.
Overview
Having won 94 games last season, I think the Braves have improved their roster for this season. The loss of Jones is a big one, both off and on the field, but I think it will be the starting pitching that ultimately proves decisive for the Braves. If Medlen can continue to be dominant and the other pitchers can chip in with strong innings then the hitters and bullpen will do the rest. If the rotation is unable to find a groove then suddenly the strikeouts from the hitters may prove more costly and the Braves will be forced to scramble for a wildcard spot. Ultimately, I think they'll fall somewhere in between.
Prediction: 93-69
Gif to Watch
Remember how I said Andrelton Simmons was a pretty good defender? I wasn't joking...
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