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To take a look at my predictions from last season, check out the article here. The predictions started well but get considerably worse, which I suppose is to be expected from truly bold calls. Hopefully I can be a little more successful this year, but with the usual disclaimer that these predictions are nothing more than fun hyperbole highlighting guys or teams I do or do not like this season.
1. Joc Pederson, not Kris Bryant, wins the NL Rookie of the Year award
Both players are uber-prospects who appear primed to have long and successful Major League careers, but I prefer Pederson for 2015. Bryant has earned more attention for his mind-boggling Spring performances as well as his monster 2014, but it is easy to forget that Pederson went 30/30 last season and should earn value through his defence in center field. The strikeouts are an issue for Pederson, but he has maintained a high walk rate throughout his Minor League career and given extended playing time on a strong Dodger team I think he could go 20/20 with more than adequate on-base numbers, enough to earn him the Rookie of the Year mantle.
2. Corey Kluber repeats as American League Cy Young winner
I am all in on Corey Kluber. Yes, he may be due bad luck on home runs, and batting average on balls in play, and his incredible run down the stretch last season (11 K/9, 1.73 ERA, 1.80 FIP - all league best in the second half - yes better than Kershaw) probably can't be expected to repeat itself. What is important to remember however, is that Corey Kluber's stuff is just absurd. His sinker has ridiculous movement, can be run up to 96 mph and frequently freezes left handed hitters with it's mesmerizing running action
If the sinker isn't getting the job done, Kluber also has a cutter at around 89mph that has absurd, almost slider-like movement.
Yes, the American League is stacked with great arms and the attrition rate of pitchers makes it hard to trust any of them to stay healthy never mind dominate, but I think Kluber has a great shot of repeating his dominant 2014 performance.
3. The Los Angeles Dodgers do not make the play-offs
I made this exact same prediction last season and was made to look pretty foolish, but why not go double or nothing. The Dodgers are widely considered contenders for the World Series once again, and it is not hard to see why with a stacked rotation and strong line-up. But bold predictions run against the grain, and I think this LA team could struggle if injuries hit the rotation. Greinke received his 'annual elbow injection', which is apparently a routine thing for him in the pre-season but still serves as concern in an era when pitcher breakdown is a 'when' rather than an 'if'. Hyun-Jin Ryu will start the season on the disabled list with shoulder issues whilst off-season acquisitions Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson both have considerable injury histories. The line-up also isn't as strong as it has been in seasons past. Rollins and Crawford appear set to top the line-up, two ageing sluggers who have seen their performances steadily decline over the past few seasons, whilst Grandal, Kendrick, Uribe and Pederson all have considerable question marks over their offensive profiles. Puig and Gonzalez should hit when healthy, but with some bad luck and poor performances, this could be a team that struggles more than we are used to seeing.
4. The Detroit Tigers do not come close
Much has been made of the Tigers roster recently, and there is little doubt to me that any comparisons to the Phillies are premature and ill-thought. Bold predictions should go out on a limb however, and with an ageing squad and a tough division, I think the Tigers will have a poor 2015. The line-up is anchored around Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez, two powerhouse sluggers who are both entering the decline stages of their respective careers whilst the outfield contains question marks over health as well as productivity. The pitching is the main area of concern however, as behind Price there are injury issues as well as performance question-marks and if Anibal Sanchez cannot shoulder a full workload of innings, there are going to be some very poor performers taking the mound for the Tigers in a lot of games. Add to that the chaos that continues to be the Tigers bullpen, and this might be a team that is a seller, rather than a buyer at the end of July.
5. Troy Tulowitzki puts up the most WAR in the National League
This one basically all comes down to health. There is little doubt that Tulowitzki is in an absolute league of his own when it comes to Major League shortstops, but his inability to stay healthy for a full season has been maddening considering his performances when on the field. I'm hoping this is the season he avoids health issues, puts together a monster offensive performance and is ultimately robbed of the MVP award because the Rockies are terrible.
6. Cole Hamels stays healthy but isn't traded
The Philadelphia Phillies are in obvious rebuilding mode, but despite some rumours of talks between themselves and other teams, they still haven't traded their most valuable asset. The general consensus is that, if healthy, Hamels is traded by the deadline, but judging from the lack of movement so far, no team values him in the same way Amaro does. In the end, with no deal providing enough value in return, the Phillies hold onto Hamels and instead look to deal him in the off-season after another stellar but wasted season.
7. Albert Pujols has his best offensive season since 2011
There's no doubt that Albert Pujols hall-of-fame career has begun something of a sharp slide in recent seasons, as his offensive performances have suffered a slide that began in 2011, punctuated by fewer walks, more strikeouts and less authoritative contact. In 2014 he had something of a comeback season, slugging 28 homers with a .272 batting average, but with his injuries now further behind him I think he's ready to prove that reports of his demise were premature. If he can draw a few more walks, I could see another 30+ homer, .400+ OBP season that harks back to his best seasons in a Cardinal uniform just one more time.
8. Joey Votto bounces back to lead the Majors in OBP
Joey Votto has received a great deal of flak in Cincinnati for his swing-averse method at the plate which involves him drawing an obscene amount of walks but not driving in many runs. Anyone with half a baseball brain knows that RBI are the result of opportunity rather than skill, and I think Votto rises above the useless debate to have another .300/.400/.500 season at the GABP. When healthy his line drive swing is one of the sweetest in baseball, and I think 20+ homers should be attainable once again, whilst his elite plate discipline makes him an easy bet to lead the league in on-base percentage.
9. Tony Cingrani dominates in the bullpen, making a 'lethal-lefty' combination with Aroldis Chapman
By all accounts, Cingrani was upset by the move from the rotation to the bullpen, but as a player who dominated so much on one pitch - his fastball - the move was probably inevitable. But allowed to crank the fastball up in one-inning stints, Cingrani enjoys extended success and makes a deadly end-game combination with fellow southpaw Aroldis Chapman.
10. Jonathan Lucroy gains traction as the sabermetric MVP selection
Lucroy earned himself some momentum as an MVP candidate last season, and ended up fourth in MVP voting, although he was generally considered a tier below the likes of Kershaw, McCutchen and Stanton. His .301/.373/.465 triple-slash is excellent for any position, never mind catcher and with a bump in home run to fly ball ratio as well as continuing development in walking more and striking out less, Lucroy could actually have a better season at the plate, especially in terms of counting stats. Add to that the fact that he is one of the best defensive catchers in the game, especially in terms of pitch framing, and he could generate considerable momentum as an MVP candidate. Just look at this sweet, sweet swing.
So there you have it! 10 wacky and wonderful predictions that will probably end up being completely wrong. Enjoy the baseball season!
