2012 Season
2012 was an up and down season for the Rangers, in which the flashes of brilliance were always contrasted by maddening slumps. After holding a 13 game lead on June 30th, they contrived to throw it away down the stretch, and were pipped to the AL West post on the final day by the Athletics before losing the AL Wildcard game to the Orioles. They got off to a hot start in April, racking up a 19-6 record thanks largely to the performances of Josh Hamilton who had 21 home runs through the first two months. However, they failed to truly build off that hot start, and being swept by the A's in the final series completed a poor collapse. Hamilton was the main bright point of the season, although the performances of Yu Darvish who boasted a 3.90 ERA and 1.28 WHIP were also very promising. All in all, 2012 was a bit of a disappointment for the Rangers having visited back-to-back World Series, and they'll look to get back on track in 2013.
Off-Season Moves
IN: A.J. Pierzynski, Lance Berkman, Joakim Soria
OUT: Josh Hamilton, Ryan Dempster, Mike Adams, Mike Napoli, Michael Young, Scott Feldman, Koji Uehara
Overview: By their standards, this was a very quiet off-season for the Texas Rangers. They were heavily linked to Diamondbacks outfielder Justin Upton, but ultimately refused to give up one of their star shortstops and were beaten to him by the Braves. A.J. Pierzynski is coming off a career-best season, but both he and Lance Berkman are entering the twilight years of their career, and any production expectations ought to be tempered. Josh Hamilton's departure leaves a big hole in the line-up, and both Mike Adams and Kohi Uehara had been part of a successful bullpen that must fill the gaps. Overall, the Rangers let some key players go without truly filling their places, which may come back to hurt them this season. Overall grade: 3/10.
| Projected Opening Day Line-up | ||
|---|---|---|
| Position | Player | Projected stat line (OBP/SLG/WAR) |
| 2B | Ian Kinsler | .345/.445/4.5 |
| SS | Elvis Andrus | .349/.363/3.8 |
| DH | Lance Berkman | .389/.485/1.4 |
| 3B | Adrian Beltre | .338/.504/5.2 |
| RF | Nelson Cruz | .333/.489/2.5 |
| LF | David Murphy | .350/.437/2.1 |
| C | A.J. Pierzynski | .310/.422/2.3 |
| 1B | Mitch Moreland | .334/.451/1.1 |
| CF | Leonys Martin | .340/.451/1.7 |
| Projected rotation | ||
|---|---|---|
| Starter | Player | Projected stat line (IP/ERA/WAR) |
| 1 | Yu Darvish | 214/3.45/4.5 |
| 2 | Matt Harrison | 203/3.90/2.3 |
| 3 | Derek Holland | 187/3.99/1.3 |
| 4 | Alexi Ogando | 68/2.65/2.0 |
| 5 | Nick Tepesch | 49/4.71/0.2 |
Position Players
With the off-season departure of Josh Hamilton, much of the offensive burden will be placed upon the shoulders of Adrian Beltre. Beltre had a fine 2012 season, with a .321/.359/.561 triple-slash to go with 36 bombs and gold-glove calibre defense. Entering his age 34 season, he may be about to hit his downslope, but the Rangers will be hoping he has one more huge season in him. Atop the line-up, Ian Kinsler was not at his mercurial best in 2012, with a .256 average and .326 OBP that aren't really good enough for a lead-off hitter. He continues to show off a fine power/speed combination, with 19 homers and 21 steals, but he'll need to sustain an average around .270 and an OBP around .350 to fill the offensive void. Playing up the middle with him will be 24 year old Elvis Andrus, who has become one of the game's better shortstops. He posted his third consecutive season with an OBP above .340 last year, and whilst the power is non-existent he has good speed and plays superb defense.
New acquisition Lance Berkman will fill most of the DH role, at least against right-handers, and at the age of 37 it's hard to imagine he plays the field at all. He played just 32 games last season and is an injury risk, but he has excellent plate discipline that should allow him to sustain a high OBP even if the batting average isn't where it was. Nelson Cruz suffered from a poor season in 2012, hitting just .260 with 24 homers. He offers little value other than power, although the Rangers will be hoping he can bounceback and be a productive slugger. David Murphy has had a long wait for consistent playing time, but he was one of the Rangers' best hitters in 2012, putting up a monstrous .304/.380/.479 triple-slash woth 15 homers in 147 games. If he has the full time role this year, he could put up similar stats which would be a fine boost for this offense. Mitch Moreland is a power-hitting first baseman with extreme righty/lefty splits. He owns a good .271/.335/.468 triple-slash off right-handers, but that drops significantly to .232/.294/.328 off left-handers. Overall, this is a line-up that boasts a lot of power even without Josh Hamilton, but it does lack a consistently good bat outside of Adrian Beltre and it will rely on someone like David Murphy, Nelson Cruz or Ian Kinsler to put up monster numbers and carry this team. Overall grade: 7/10.
Pitching
Yu Darvish had a strong first season in the Majors, with a 3.90 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, butit was the end of the season that was most promising. After struggling with control issues for the first few months, it all clicked for Darvish in September as he walked just 7 hitters in 36 innings, and put up a 2.21 ERA. He has dazzling strikeout stuff, and if he can restrict the walks he could be a sleeper Cy Young candidate. Matt Harrison has continued to be a strong innings eater for Texas, as his 3.29 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 213 innings in 2012 gave him an astonishing 6.2 WAR. He doesn't have lots of strikeouts, which you would expect to lead to poor results in a hitter-friendly home park, but he keeps hitters off balance and lets the defense do the work. Derek Holland has long threatened to become an elite pitcher, but the 26 year old southpaw is yet to put it all together. Although he had 18 starts in which he restricted the opposition to less than three runs, he also had 10 in which he allowed more than five. If he can improve the consistency then he'll find the ERA drops from the high 4's to the high 3's. Alexi Ogando will once more make the transition from bullpen to rotation, having done so succesfully in 2011. Colby Lewis is out for the start of the season, so the fifth spot will likely be filled by Nick Tepesch or Robbie Ross to start the season after leading candidate Martin Perez broke his arm.
In the bullpen, the Rangers will once more call on veteran closer Joe Nathan to work the ninth inning, after his successful first year with the club. He saved 37 of 40 opportunities with a 2.80 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. His strikeout rate was right back to its old levels, and whilst he may be into his last few productive seasons at age 38, he still has plenty in the tank for this year. After the departure of Mike Adams, the role of main set-up man will go to the newly acquired Joakim Soria, who missed the entire 2012 season with Tommy John surgery. Prior to that, he had been one of the best closers in the league with the Kansas City Royals, so the Rangers will be hoping he can rediscover his old form. Josh Lindblom had an up and down season in 2012, but will try to find some consistency in Texas whilst the aforementioned Robbie Ross will be the main left hander in the 'pen. The rotation had strength at the top, and whilst I think Ogando and Holland are great at 3 and 4, the 5th starter role may prove problematic at the start of the season, preventing it from being one of the best rotations in the league. In the 'pen, I think they may be a bit weaker, with Nathan old now, and Soria still returning from his surgery. Overall grade: 7/10.
Prospects
The Rangers have a good deal of top talent, and most of it is at or near major league readiness. The top prospect in the game is the Rangers shortstop phenom Jurickson Profar, who will likely start the season in AAA with no hole in the infield, although he could be an impact player in case of injury of September call-up. Also blocked at his position is third base prospect Mike Olt, who spent some time at first base last year. His defensive talents are wasted over there, but with the hot corner role filled by Beltre, Olt will have to wait a little longer before showing off his talents in Texas on an everyday basis. Martin Perez has fallen in many scouts estimations as his plus stuff is yet to convert into results. At the age of 22, time is on his side but if he wants a spot in the rotation he'll need to earn it. Other than that, most prospects are further away, whilst Wilmer Font could earn a bullpen spot with his heavy fastball. Overall, this is a system that has a lot of power up front, but may slip down once those players reach the majors this season. A strong draft and some useful trading may be in order. Overall grade: 7/10.
Overview
The Rangers seem to contend every season, and despite the departure of Hamilton there is no reason to think they won't do the same again. Beltre leads a line-up that has a lot of potential, and if Martin and Murphy can hit well from the outfield it could score a lot of runs. I like the rotation a lot, especially once Colby Lewis returns from injury, and whilst there are issues in the bullpen I think this team can contend for the AL West title until the end.
Prediction: 91-71
Gif to Watch
Yu Darvish's stuff is explosive, but one of his most bizarre pitches is a two-seamer that has nigh-on screwball movement in towards right handers. Here he makes Howie Kendrick look silly on a 2-0 count.
New acquisition Lance Berkman will fill most of the DH role, at least against right-handers, and at the age of 37 it's hard to imagine he plays the field at all. He played just 32 games last season and is an injury risk, but he has excellent plate discipline that should allow him to sustain a high OBP even if the batting average isn't where it was. Nelson Cruz suffered from a poor season in 2012, hitting just .260 with 24 homers. He offers little value other than power, although the Rangers will be hoping he can bounceback and be a productive slugger. David Murphy has had a long wait for consistent playing time, but he was one of the Rangers' best hitters in 2012, putting up a monstrous .304/.380/.479 triple-slash woth 15 homers in 147 games. If he has the full time role this year, he could put up similar stats which would be a fine boost for this offense. Mitch Moreland is a power-hitting first baseman with extreme righty/lefty splits. He owns a good .271/.335/.468 triple-slash off right-handers, but that drops significantly to .232/.294/.328 off left-handers. Overall, this is a line-up that boasts a lot of power even without Josh Hamilton, but it does lack a consistently good bat outside of Adrian Beltre and it will rely on someone like David Murphy, Nelson Cruz or Ian Kinsler to put up monster numbers and carry this team. Overall grade: 7/10.
Pitching
Yu Darvish had a strong first season in the Majors, with a 3.90 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, butit was the end of the season that was most promising. After struggling with control issues for the first few months, it all clicked for Darvish in September as he walked just 7 hitters in 36 innings, and put up a 2.21 ERA. He has dazzling strikeout stuff, and if he can restrict the walks he could be a sleeper Cy Young candidate. Matt Harrison has continued to be a strong innings eater for Texas, as his 3.29 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 213 innings in 2012 gave him an astonishing 6.2 WAR. He doesn't have lots of strikeouts, which you would expect to lead to poor results in a hitter-friendly home park, but he keeps hitters off balance and lets the defense do the work. Derek Holland has long threatened to become an elite pitcher, but the 26 year old southpaw is yet to put it all together. Although he had 18 starts in which he restricted the opposition to less than three runs, he also had 10 in which he allowed more than five. If he can improve the consistency then he'll find the ERA drops from the high 4's to the high 3's. Alexi Ogando will once more make the transition from bullpen to rotation, having done so succesfully in 2011. Colby Lewis is out for the start of the season, so the fifth spot will likely be filled by Nick Tepesch or Robbie Ross to start the season after leading candidate Martin Perez broke his arm.
In the bullpen, the Rangers will once more call on veteran closer Joe Nathan to work the ninth inning, after his successful first year with the club. He saved 37 of 40 opportunities with a 2.80 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. His strikeout rate was right back to its old levels, and whilst he may be into his last few productive seasons at age 38, he still has plenty in the tank for this year. After the departure of Mike Adams, the role of main set-up man will go to the newly acquired Joakim Soria, who missed the entire 2012 season with Tommy John surgery. Prior to that, he had been one of the best closers in the league with the Kansas City Royals, so the Rangers will be hoping he can rediscover his old form. Josh Lindblom had an up and down season in 2012, but will try to find some consistency in Texas whilst the aforementioned Robbie Ross will be the main left hander in the 'pen. The rotation had strength at the top, and whilst I think Ogando and Holland are great at 3 and 4, the 5th starter role may prove problematic at the start of the season, preventing it from being one of the best rotations in the league. In the 'pen, I think they may be a bit weaker, with Nathan old now, and Soria still returning from his surgery. Overall grade: 7/10.
Prospects
The Rangers have a good deal of top talent, and most of it is at or near major league readiness. The top prospect in the game is the Rangers shortstop phenom Jurickson Profar, who will likely start the season in AAA with no hole in the infield, although he could be an impact player in case of injury of September call-up. Also blocked at his position is third base prospect Mike Olt, who spent some time at first base last year. His defensive talents are wasted over there, but with the hot corner role filled by Beltre, Olt will have to wait a little longer before showing off his talents in Texas on an everyday basis. Martin Perez has fallen in many scouts estimations as his plus stuff is yet to convert into results. At the age of 22, time is on his side but if he wants a spot in the rotation he'll need to earn it. Other than that, most prospects are further away, whilst Wilmer Font could earn a bullpen spot with his heavy fastball. Overall, this is a system that has a lot of power up front, but may slip down once those players reach the majors this season. A strong draft and some useful trading may be in order. Overall grade: 7/10.
Overview
The Rangers seem to contend every season, and despite the departure of Hamilton there is no reason to think they won't do the same again. Beltre leads a line-up that has a lot of potential, and if Martin and Murphy can hit well from the outfield it could score a lot of runs. I like the rotation a lot, especially once Colby Lewis returns from injury, and whilst there are issues in the bullpen I think this team can contend for the AL West title until the end.
Prediction: 91-71
Gif to Watch
Yu Darvish's stuff is explosive, but one of his most bizarre pitches is a two-seamer that has nigh-on screwball movement in towards right handers. Here he makes Howie Kendrick look silly on a 2-0 count.
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