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Tuesday 17 April 2012
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Friday 6 April 2012
Division breakdown: AL East
So, with the baseball season underway following the 2 game series between the Mariners and As in Japan, I thought it would be time to update this blog more often and give it some more substance. As such, I'd started a 6-post series breaking down each division in the Majors starting with the American League East.
The AL East is a small division - just 5 teams - but a very competitive one. It consists of perennial World Series contenders Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees as well as Tampa Bay, Baltimore and Toronto, who have all improved massively in recent years. I'll do a team by team analysis, and then at the end how I expect the division to work out and which players will make a splash.
First off, the Baltimore Orioles. The club has been around as long as any team in the Majors, moving from Milwaukee to St Louis, and finally settling in Baltimore, where it has enjoyed most of its success. It has won three World Series' - 1966, 1970 and 1983, but since the retirement of future Hall-Of-Famer Cal Ripken in 2001, the franchise has struggled mightily, compiling losing records every season since 1998.
So, what went wrong? Well the club has a low payroll, particularly compared to high-spenders Red Sox and Yankees in the division, and as such rely on 'homegrown' players rather than big money signings. Their one notable signing of late was the arrival of Vladimir Guerrero from the Texas Rangers before the 2011 season to play DH, but after a woeful 69-93 season last year that left them bottom of the division, they'll be expecting more from their star slugger this year.
So, what for this year? Their strengths lie in hitting. Oriole Park promotes hitting as it is not huge, and hitters like Guerrero and Hardy should clear the wall several times this year. Star players can be found at center field in the form of Adam Jones the 26 year old hitter who had a career year last season, hitting .280 with 25 home runs and 83 RBI at the heart of the line-up. The other star hitter is 25 year old catcher Matt Wieters. Drafted 5th overall in the 2007 draft, Wieters was expected to be an all-star player in the Baltimore line-up. So far in his career he has failed to fully live up to expectations, but showed promising signs last season with a .262 average, 22 homers and 68 RBI. If he can put it all together this year, he could have an outstanding year for Baltimore.
However, Baltimore's weaknesses lie in their pitching. Without any real ace, the job of shutting down opposition line-ups is left to the likes of Jake Arrieta and Luis Ayala, and in such an offense-driven division, the rotation has struggled mightily over the last few seasons. The Orioles appear to have a strong minor-league system, but for the time being their woes look set to continue in the AL East.
So, next the Boston Red Sox. After showing the Yankees that they were more than willing to match their spending ways in the 2011 off season, many expected Boston to contend for the division, and maybe even the World Series. However, a season plagued with injuries ended in disaster, when they lost 18 of 24 games in September and inexplicably lost their grip on the AL wildcard to rivals Tampa Bay, finishing the season with a 90-72 record, and missing out on the postseason.
The strongest part of the team is without a doubt the batting line-up. The odd dimensions of Fenway Park do provide some benefit to hitters (particularly lefties), and the off-season additions of Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford looked like being division-winning moves. Last seasons star was undoubtedly Jacoby Ellsbury, who smoked .321 with 32 home runs and 110 runs leading off the line-up for the Red Sox, showing unpredicted power for the entire season. He also contributed with 39 stolen bases, nowhere near his career high of 70, and so should be considered one of the most complete 5-tool outfielders in baseball. Gonzalez was also strong last season, hitting .338 with 27 homers and 117 RBIs, and looks set to provide even more this season at the heart of one of the strongest line-ups in baseball. Other new signing, Carl Crawford struggled in his first season, but looks set to bounce back this year. He is likely to be pushed up the order, particularly against right handers, and a move back towards a .300 average and 50 stolen bases looks likely for the speedster.
As for pitching, the Red Sox lost elite closer Jonathan Papelbon to the Phillies over the off-season, and picked up Andrew Bailey from the As in a trade to fill that void. Lester, Beckett and Buchholz (coming back from injury) all look set to have 15 win seasons, but Lackey and Matsuzaka have it all to prove coming back from a weak season and a long injury spell respectively. Daniel Bard also looks set to complete his transition from bullpen to rotation, and if he can carry his power stuff over, he could be a good starter for Boston this year.
However, if there is any team in baseball that can rival the offensive power of the Red Sox, then it would have to be the neighbour New York Yankees. Boasting a line-up with offensive stars like Robinson Cano, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and Curtis Granderson, the Yankees are never lacking in offensive capability. Despite injury to offensive star Alex Rodriguez, and the loss of key pitcher Cliff Lee in the off season, the Yankees had another fine season in the AL East, winning 97 games and topping the division before being upset 3-2 in the ALDS.
Their strength lies in hitting, and no-one exemplifies this more than Mr. Consistent Robinson Cano. 7 straight seasons with an average over .270, the RBI count has increased above 100 the past two seasons and home runs have also increased up towards 30. At a position starved of any depth, Cano offers average and power, and may find himself at the heart of the Yankee line-up this season. Teixeira and A-Rod will provide power and RBI, and Jeter and Gardner should easily find their way on base to be knocked home by the power hitters behind them. It is a strong line-up, one of the strongest in baseball.
However, the pitching is still a weak point. Ace CC Sabathia continues to be dominant at the Bronx, but other than the giant lefty, the Yankees lack any real power. Last season this area improved, with the breakout of young thrower Ivan Nova, and the addition of Hiroki Kuroda and Michael Pineda over the off-season should solidify the rotation. Mariano Rivera will continue to close games well into his age-41 season, and will continue to do so with success. The Yankees should enjoy another season with 90+ wins, but if the pitching suffers a couple of injuries, rotation depth will be pushed to its limits.
The next team is the big unknown in the division. The Tampa Bay Rays enjoyed varied success last season, starting off badly with the loss of key slugger Evan Longoria, but with the maturation of key figures in the bullpen, the club put together a barnstorming second half of the season and managed to secure a wildcard spot on an incredible final day of the regular season. The team crashed out against the Texas Rangers in the ALDS, but they still ended on a high.
Unlike the Yankees, the line-up is not the strong area of the Rays team. Their main threat and club leader Evan Longoria will enter the season again expected to provide average, power and RBIs at the heart of the Rays line-up, but the highly-talented third baseman is one of the few players in baseball who can fulfil such expectations. Breakout hitter Desmond Jennings will be expected to live up to his 5-tool hype and carry on where he left off before his post-all-star slump. Other figures like BJ Upton and Matt Joyce will need to contribute if the Rays want to launch a serious assault at the division.
The main reason why the Rays can be considered strong candidates for the division is because of their awesome rotation. Last year was a fantastic season for 30 year old 'veteran' James Shields, who earned the nickname Complete Game James after an unbelievable 11 complete games last season. He and 26 year old lefty David Price will be expected to provide quality starts regularly for Tampa Bay. The two young members of the rotation are arguably two of the hottest young pitchers in the league. First is sophomore Jeremy Hellickson, who last season won 13 games with a 2.95 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP to earn the rookie of the year award. A dip in performance is expected after astronomic luck on BABIP last season, but the kid is sure to improve. Finally is one of the top young players in the league, rookie southpaw Matt Moore. In his first start against the Yankees he kept them scoreless through 5 innings, striking out 11 on his way. He then dominated against Texas in the ALDS, proving he was ready to translate his stuff to the majors. If he can live up to half the hype, he'll be a lights-out pitcher for the Rays this year.
And finally, the Toronto Blue Jays. The 'inbetweeners' of the AL East at the moment, they have a good squad, but not good enough yet to really challenge for the title. Last year they went exactly .500 with 81 wins and 81 losses, which in their league simply isn't good enough. But the team is improving behind a good, young core.
On the offensive side, the clear leader is perennial home run champion contender Jose Bautista, who last season hit 43 homers, one season removed from mashing a franchise best 54. He'll provide huge power at the heart of the line-up, and up and coming star Brett Lawrie will hope to gain from a great start to his big-league career last season with a strong sophomore campaign this time around. The team has massive power potential, even without 'Joey Bats' with players like Edwin Encarnacion, Kelly Johnson and Adam Lind all capable of hitting 25+ home runs. The problem is finding a reliable player to get on base in front of these big hitters, and the acquisition of Colby Rasmus from the St Louis Cardinals last season failed to address this problem, at least so far.
In the rotation, the Blue Jays are growing in strength. They are led by ace Ricky Romero, who has quality pitches, but often fails to control it. When he's on his game, he can rival the best in baseball, but Toronto will look for greater consistency from him this season. He's backed up by strong young pitchers Brandon Morrow (who throws at 100mph consistently) and Henderson Alvarez (who will need to prove he has the stuff to play in the Bigs). In the bullpen they have a mixture of power and experience. The power is Casey Janssen and Sergio Santos, who will pitch at the back end of games and look to finish them off with powerful, strikeout pitches. The experience could come solely from Darren Oliver, the veteran left-hander who can call on 24 years of pitching experience but will likely be used in lefty v lefty situations this season.
So, who is going to end up where? I can't see past the Yankees winning the division unless they suffer key injuries in the rotation and bullpen. The Red Sox should be able to secure the wildcard this year, but they can't afford to slip up like last season, because the ever improving Rays will be snapping on their heels. If Tampa can keep players on the field and morale in the clubhouse high, they are the kind of team that could go on a long run that may well end up with a playoff spot. The Blue Jays will again improve, and might have a good run at the title next season, but they and the Orioles will be battling it out for 4th place again this season, as they suffer the misfortune of being placed in one of the toughest leagues in baseball.
Players to watch out for? I'll give you one from each team. From the Orioles, Matt Wieters. I finally back him to have a breakout season and be the bright spark in an otherwise drab lineup. 25 HRs and 80 RBI shouldn't be out of his reach. From the Red Sox, Adrian Gonzalez. I know what you're thinking, 'wow, big call there' but I think Gonzalez has a lot more to offer this season at Fenway. He could have easily added another 10 homers and 20 RBI to last years tally with a few more hits to right field, and I think he'll do that this year. From the Yankees, I'll back the old reliable Mariano Rivera to prove he's not out of gas yet with another superb season closing out games. Expect 40 or more from this once-in-a-lifetime player to cement his status as the greatest of all time. From the Rays I fancy Matt Moore to show he's the real deal and win Rookie of the Year with a 15 win, 200 K's season from the Rays rotation. He's a bit of a mystery at the moment, as we need to tell whether he can adjust to going through the same lineup 4 or 5 times, but if the Rays staff are to be believed, he's got the stuff to do it. And finally, from the Blue Jays I think Brett Lawrie will continue his star-studded start to his Major League career with a fine performance in his first full season. Something along the lines of 25 HR, 80 RBI and 25 steals wouldn't be out of reach for him.
The AL East is a small division - just 5 teams - but a very competitive one. It consists of perennial World Series contenders Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees as well as Tampa Bay, Baltimore and Toronto, who have all improved massively in recent years. I'll do a team by team analysis, and then at the end how I expect the division to work out and which players will make a splash.
First off, the Baltimore Orioles. The club has been around as long as any team in the Majors, moving from Milwaukee to St Louis, and finally settling in Baltimore, where it has enjoyed most of its success. It has won three World Series' - 1966, 1970 and 1983, but since the retirement of future Hall-Of-Famer Cal Ripken in 2001, the franchise has struggled mightily, compiling losing records every season since 1998.
So, what went wrong? Well the club has a low payroll, particularly compared to high-spenders Red Sox and Yankees in the division, and as such rely on 'homegrown' players rather than big money signings. Their one notable signing of late was the arrival of Vladimir Guerrero from the Texas Rangers before the 2011 season to play DH, but after a woeful 69-93 season last year that left them bottom of the division, they'll be expecting more from their star slugger this year.
So, what for this year? Their strengths lie in hitting. Oriole Park promotes hitting as it is not huge, and hitters like Guerrero and Hardy should clear the wall several times this year. Star players can be found at center field in the form of Adam Jones the 26 year old hitter who had a career year last season, hitting .280 with 25 home runs and 83 RBI at the heart of the line-up. The other star hitter is 25 year old catcher Matt Wieters. Drafted 5th overall in the 2007 draft, Wieters was expected to be an all-star player in the Baltimore line-up. So far in his career he has failed to fully live up to expectations, but showed promising signs last season with a .262 average, 22 homers and 68 RBI. If he can put it all together this year, he could have an outstanding year for Baltimore.
However, Baltimore's weaknesses lie in their pitching. Without any real ace, the job of shutting down opposition line-ups is left to the likes of Jake Arrieta and Luis Ayala, and in such an offense-driven division, the rotation has struggled mightily over the last few seasons. The Orioles appear to have a strong minor-league system, but for the time being their woes look set to continue in the AL East.
So, next the Boston Red Sox. After showing the Yankees that they were more than willing to match their spending ways in the 2011 off season, many expected Boston to contend for the division, and maybe even the World Series. However, a season plagued with injuries ended in disaster, when they lost 18 of 24 games in September and inexplicably lost their grip on the AL wildcard to rivals Tampa Bay, finishing the season with a 90-72 record, and missing out on the postseason.
The strongest part of the team is without a doubt the batting line-up. The odd dimensions of Fenway Park do provide some benefit to hitters (particularly lefties), and the off-season additions of Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford looked like being division-winning moves. Last seasons star was undoubtedly Jacoby Ellsbury, who smoked .321 with 32 home runs and 110 runs leading off the line-up for the Red Sox, showing unpredicted power for the entire season. He also contributed with 39 stolen bases, nowhere near his career high of 70, and so should be considered one of the most complete 5-tool outfielders in baseball. Gonzalez was also strong last season, hitting .338 with 27 homers and 117 RBIs, and looks set to provide even more this season at the heart of one of the strongest line-ups in baseball. Other new signing, Carl Crawford struggled in his first season, but looks set to bounce back this year. He is likely to be pushed up the order, particularly against right handers, and a move back towards a .300 average and 50 stolen bases looks likely for the speedster.
As for pitching, the Red Sox lost elite closer Jonathan Papelbon to the Phillies over the off-season, and picked up Andrew Bailey from the As in a trade to fill that void. Lester, Beckett and Buchholz (coming back from injury) all look set to have 15 win seasons, but Lackey and Matsuzaka have it all to prove coming back from a weak season and a long injury spell respectively. Daniel Bard also looks set to complete his transition from bullpen to rotation, and if he can carry his power stuff over, he could be a good starter for Boston this year.
However, if there is any team in baseball that can rival the offensive power of the Red Sox, then it would have to be the neighbour New York Yankees. Boasting a line-up with offensive stars like Robinson Cano, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and Curtis Granderson, the Yankees are never lacking in offensive capability. Despite injury to offensive star Alex Rodriguez, and the loss of key pitcher Cliff Lee in the off season, the Yankees had another fine season in the AL East, winning 97 games and topping the division before being upset 3-2 in the ALDS.
Their strength lies in hitting, and no-one exemplifies this more than Mr. Consistent Robinson Cano. 7 straight seasons with an average over .270, the RBI count has increased above 100 the past two seasons and home runs have also increased up towards 30. At a position starved of any depth, Cano offers average and power, and may find himself at the heart of the Yankee line-up this season. Teixeira and A-Rod will provide power and RBI, and Jeter and Gardner should easily find their way on base to be knocked home by the power hitters behind them. It is a strong line-up, one of the strongest in baseball.
However, the pitching is still a weak point. Ace CC Sabathia continues to be dominant at the Bronx, but other than the giant lefty, the Yankees lack any real power. Last season this area improved, with the breakout of young thrower Ivan Nova, and the addition of Hiroki Kuroda and Michael Pineda over the off-season should solidify the rotation. Mariano Rivera will continue to close games well into his age-41 season, and will continue to do so with success. The Yankees should enjoy another season with 90+ wins, but if the pitching suffers a couple of injuries, rotation depth will be pushed to its limits.
The next team is the big unknown in the division. The Tampa Bay Rays enjoyed varied success last season, starting off badly with the loss of key slugger Evan Longoria, but with the maturation of key figures in the bullpen, the club put together a barnstorming second half of the season and managed to secure a wildcard spot on an incredible final day of the regular season. The team crashed out against the Texas Rangers in the ALDS, but they still ended on a high.
Unlike the Yankees, the line-up is not the strong area of the Rays team. Their main threat and club leader Evan Longoria will enter the season again expected to provide average, power and RBIs at the heart of the Rays line-up, but the highly-talented third baseman is one of the few players in baseball who can fulfil such expectations. Breakout hitter Desmond Jennings will be expected to live up to his 5-tool hype and carry on where he left off before his post-all-star slump. Other figures like BJ Upton and Matt Joyce will need to contribute if the Rays want to launch a serious assault at the division.
The main reason why the Rays can be considered strong candidates for the division is because of their awesome rotation. Last year was a fantastic season for 30 year old 'veteran' James Shields, who earned the nickname Complete Game James after an unbelievable 11 complete games last season. He and 26 year old lefty David Price will be expected to provide quality starts regularly for Tampa Bay. The two young members of the rotation are arguably two of the hottest young pitchers in the league. First is sophomore Jeremy Hellickson, who last season won 13 games with a 2.95 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP to earn the rookie of the year award. A dip in performance is expected after astronomic luck on BABIP last season, but the kid is sure to improve. Finally is one of the top young players in the league, rookie southpaw Matt Moore. In his first start against the Yankees he kept them scoreless through 5 innings, striking out 11 on his way. He then dominated against Texas in the ALDS, proving he was ready to translate his stuff to the majors. If he can live up to half the hype, he'll be a lights-out pitcher for the Rays this year.
And finally, the Toronto Blue Jays. The 'inbetweeners' of the AL East at the moment, they have a good squad, but not good enough yet to really challenge for the title. Last year they went exactly .500 with 81 wins and 81 losses, which in their league simply isn't good enough. But the team is improving behind a good, young core.
On the offensive side, the clear leader is perennial home run champion contender Jose Bautista, who last season hit 43 homers, one season removed from mashing a franchise best 54. He'll provide huge power at the heart of the line-up, and up and coming star Brett Lawrie will hope to gain from a great start to his big-league career last season with a strong sophomore campaign this time around. The team has massive power potential, even without 'Joey Bats' with players like Edwin Encarnacion, Kelly Johnson and Adam Lind all capable of hitting 25+ home runs. The problem is finding a reliable player to get on base in front of these big hitters, and the acquisition of Colby Rasmus from the St Louis Cardinals last season failed to address this problem, at least so far.
In the rotation, the Blue Jays are growing in strength. They are led by ace Ricky Romero, who has quality pitches, but often fails to control it. When he's on his game, he can rival the best in baseball, but Toronto will look for greater consistency from him this season. He's backed up by strong young pitchers Brandon Morrow (who throws at 100mph consistently) and Henderson Alvarez (who will need to prove he has the stuff to play in the Bigs). In the bullpen they have a mixture of power and experience. The power is Casey Janssen and Sergio Santos, who will pitch at the back end of games and look to finish them off with powerful, strikeout pitches. The experience could come solely from Darren Oliver, the veteran left-hander who can call on 24 years of pitching experience but will likely be used in lefty v lefty situations this season.
So, who is going to end up where? I can't see past the Yankees winning the division unless they suffer key injuries in the rotation and bullpen. The Red Sox should be able to secure the wildcard this year, but they can't afford to slip up like last season, because the ever improving Rays will be snapping on their heels. If Tampa can keep players on the field and morale in the clubhouse high, they are the kind of team that could go on a long run that may well end up with a playoff spot. The Blue Jays will again improve, and might have a good run at the title next season, but they and the Orioles will be battling it out for 4th place again this season, as they suffer the misfortune of being placed in one of the toughest leagues in baseball.
Players to watch out for? I'll give you one from each team. From the Orioles, Matt Wieters. I finally back him to have a breakout season and be the bright spark in an otherwise drab lineup. 25 HRs and 80 RBI shouldn't be out of his reach. From the Red Sox, Adrian Gonzalez. I know what you're thinking, 'wow, big call there' but I think Gonzalez has a lot more to offer this season at Fenway. He could have easily added another 10 homers and 20 RBI to last years tally with a few more hits to right field, and I think he'll do that this year. From the Yankees, I'll back the old reliable Mariano Rivera to prove he's not out of gas yet with another superb season closing out games. Expect 40 or more from this once-in-a-lifetime player to cement his status as the greatest of all time. From the Rays I fancy Matt Moore to show he's the real deal and win Rookie of the Year with a 15 win, 200 K's season from the Rays rotation. He's a bit of a mystery at the moment, as we need to tell whether he can adjust to going through the same lineup 4 or 5 times, but if the Rays staff are to be believed, he's got the stuff to do it. And finally, from the Blue Jays I think Brett Lawrie will continue his star-studded start to his Major League career with a fine performance in his first full season. Something along the lines of 25 HR, 80 RBI and 25 steals wouldn't be out of reach for him.
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