Are the Cleveland Indians for real?

Last season, the Detroit Tigers were hampered all season by a dogged chase from the Chicago White Sox, who stayed with them all the way into September until fading in the final few weeks. Few expected them to face as much trouble this season, but after two months they sit just 0.5 games clear in the AL Central. It's not the White Sox causing them problems this time, but the resurgent Cleveland Indians. Their 29-24 record is keeping pace with the AL front-runners and this is despite going 3-7 in their past 10 games. This is nothing new. At this point last season, the Indians were doing exactly the same thing as their 27-23 record was making them look like a competitive team. Ultimately they were very disappointing in the second half and ended up with an atrocious 68-94 record, barely avoiding the AL Central wooden spoon. What makes anyone think this year will be different?

Well, for starters, Terry Francona is a very, very good manager. After spending a year away from baseball following his sacking as manager of the Red Sox, Francona got back into managing at the helm of the Indians squad. Although their hot start can't be placed solely on the shoulders of the manager, Francona has clearly had some effect on the players, and more noticeably he has been a good in-game tactician. His team has been running wild on the bases, with 39 steals (good for fourth in the AL) despite having few obvious base-stealers outside the speedy Michael Bourn. His team also ranks fourth-last in the league in sacrifice bunts, and second in the league in home runs. The team isn't playing for three one-run innings, but for that one seven-run inning, as they did last night when they put seven two-out runs on the board in the fourth inning against the Reds.

Of course, Francona isn't the man at the dish driving those runs in, and the offense has been the main strong point for this team so far. Michael Bourn has been a sparkplug atop the line-up, hitting .311 with a .359 OBP and eight steals, despite missing two weeks with a hand injury. Heavy hitting catcher Carlos Santana has cooled off a bit after his .350 start, but a .284/.396/.503 triple-slash is heady production. Mark Reynolds has torn the leather off the ball so far in Cleveland, leading the team with 13 jacks and 41 runs batted in whilst fellow free agent acquisition Nick Swisher is doing everything asked of him with a .363 OBP. This is a team that hits for a lot of power, and draws a lot of walks. It also has great depth, with back-up catcher Yan Gomes demanding more playing time to go with his .319 average, and part-time players like Raburn, Stubbs and Aviles all contributing when needed. This might not be the best offense in the American League, but it's probably the most underrated.

And now onto the pitching staff. Justin Masterson has so far been a legitimate ace for the Tribe, going 8-3 with a 3.07 ERA and 83 strikeouts in just 82 innings. His 1.7 WAR is already nearing last seasons 2.0 mark as he has proven more able at keeping the ball in the yard. Left-handers still own a significant platoon advantage, but there's recent to think Masterson can continue being an effective workhorse. After him, however, things get a little more shaky. Zach McAllister has an impressive 3.08 ERA in 61.1 innings, but his xFIP of 4.48 shows he has gotten a little lucky with his strand rate and HR/FB rate. Whilst there's reason to think he can sustain an ERA around 4, I don't think he'll continue to be this effective all season, so regression seems pretty likely. Ubaldo Jimenez has been nothing short of atrocious in his time at Cleveland, and the 5.57 ERA this season is testament to that. His xFIP of 3.82 shows he's actually been unlucky this season, as the 17.8% HR/FB rate seems high, even for an erratic pitcher like Jimenez. The strikeouts are at least improving, as he has 53 K's in 51.2 innings, but even if Jimenez benefits from more luck, it's hard to think he'll ever return to his Rockies form.

In the bullpen, what started as a solid foundation has quickly crumbled in recent weeks, as closer Chris Perez has been sidelined with rotator cuff tendinitis, and his fill-in Vinnie Pestano has been unable to discover his usually dominant form after an injury that kept him sidelined earlier this month. Joe Smith has actually been a superb option, and is slowly earning the trust of his manager, which tends to happen when you own a 1.00 ERA and 19/5 K/BB ratio. The bullpen should improve, especially Pestano and Perez, though I still think the Indians would be wise to trade the latter as soon as they get a decent offer. Intriguing rookie Trevor Bauer has made a few spot-starts for the Indians, contrasting nigh-unhittable stuff with an inability to throw strikes. He should make the jump to the rotation full time at some point this season, but there's not much more impact to come from the minors unfortunately.

So, what can we expect from this point forward? So far the gutsy off-season moves have paid dividends as the hitters have been on fire. Their schedule to begin May is pretty friendly, although the three game set in Detroit should be a good tussle. Towards the end of the month, however, things get a lot trickier, as the Indians play the Tigers, Red Sox, Reds and Rays in consecutive series followed by tough match-ups with the Rangers and Nationals in June. If they can get through those games with first place still in their sights, then it will be time to take them seriously, but the rotation is due for regression and the bullpen is a bit of a mess. Besides, we've seen this script before, and it didn't end well for Indians fans.

Is David Ortiz a hall of famer?

There are few honours greater in baseball than being put in the hall of fame. There are 297 members of the hall of fame, ranging from imperious sluggers to nimble base-stealers to inspirational managers to game-changing umpires. In recent seasons, the hall of fame has become slightly farcical, embroiled in the steroid argument that seems destined to define a generation. It's hard to predict who will end up in the hall of fame when Barry Bonds is unable to make the grade, but the hall continues to serve as the ultimate benchmark of a successful career.

So, on to the player at question. David Ortiz has become the face of the Boston Red Sox franchise over the past few seasons, with his heroic post-season antics combining with his charismatic off-field persona to make a lovable veteran. At the age of 37, there is no doubt that Big Papi is in his twilight years, but as he is proving so far in 2013, he has plenty of production left in the tank with a .333 average and four homers. When his career is finally over, how will retrospect treat him? He's been an excellent player - an exceptional one at times - who has made the designated hitter position his own, but is he hall-of-fame worthy?

The Arguments For

Even the most staunch Yankee fan will concede that Ortiz can hit. He can flat out rake. He has a career batting average of .285 and a healthy career OBP of .380. Of course, slugging is the main part of his game, and a .548 slugging percentage and 405 career homers are testament to that. The 405 home runs would place him exactly 50th amongst hall of fame (and active) players, though you'd like to think another 30-60 should be feasible if has another two seasons left in him. Ortiz would rank 26th amongst hall of fame/active players, making him a worthy entrant on the basis of his bat.

Then of course, you have his post-season play. In 2003 he was the Red Sox best slugger in the post-season, as he almost guided them past the Yankees in an epic ALCS. In 2004, he was successful in doing so, taking the Red Sox to their first championship in 86 years on the back of his .409 average and five homers. His walk-off home run won the ALDS for the Red Sox, another walk off blast in game four and finally a walk-off single in game five of the incredible ALCS series, again against the Yankees. In the 2007 post-season he was once again instrumental as part of the Red Sox championship run. There is a reason he has been pronounced 'the greatest clutch hitter in Red Sox history'.

Finally, you have his name and image. Whilst David Ortiz's career stats speak for themselves, Big Papi has made himself into the face of the Red Sox franchise and has become a household name in baseball. He has likely become the most famous DH to play the game, and he is an enormously popular player amongst fans. As I'll discuss later, the PED link from earlier in his career will do him no favours, but he has done an excellent job of shaking off this image and becoming an ambassador for the game of baseball.

The Arguments Against

Although Papi's offensive stats may be comparably to the Hall of Fame, his WAR certainly is not. His career mark of 40.3 WAR would leave him 304th in history, barely above Rafael Furcal. Of course, the main reason for this is the total lack of defense to his game, as his entire career has been restricted to the designated hitter role. On bat alone, Ortiz may be a hall of fame candidate, but the fact that he's not even serviceable enough to play first base for a major league team tells us everything we need to know about his defense. And that's before we get started on his base-running value.

And being the DH doesn't just hold back his WAR and defensive metrics. There is something of a DH stigma amongst hall of fame voters, who have tended to ignore hit-only players. Edgar Martinez, a designated hitter who arguably boasts better offensive stats than David Ortiz is yet to get into the hall of fame, and was able to achieve just 36.5% of the vote in 2012 balloting. It's hard to imagine the voters swaying so much in favour of Ortiz after setting a precedent with Martinez (although voting with their brains is perhaps something the hall of fame voters choose not to do).

Finally, Big Papi's hall of fame case will be hindered by the steroid allegations levied at him earlier in his career. The New York Times revealed in 2009 that Ortiz had failed a drug test in 2003 along with roughly 100 other Major League players. The legitimacy of this claim has since been thrown into doubt, and Ortiz has strongly denied the allegations, but any link to PED's has generally been met with a fairly staunch policy by hall of fame voters (see Bonds, Barry among others). It's possible Ortiz has done enough since these allegations to repair his image, but the mere link will cause some to leave Ortiz off their ballot entirely.

So, what does he need to do?

The way I see it, Ortiz does not get into the hall of fame if he retires today. If he can push up towards and maybe even past 500 career home runs it will be a major step in the right direction, and another excellent post-season or two would do no harm to his case. His bat is still very productive, even if his body is breaking down, so if he can stay on the field he could yet have a few big seasons left in him. Continuing to mould his image as the face of the Red Sox franchise will help too, and it's certainly possible that in five years time we are talking about an almost certain hall of fame candidate.

However, what is really needed is a change in the mindset of hall of fame voters. For as long as the stigma is attached to the designated hitter position and there is a total reluctance to go near players with links to PEDs, Ortiz does not stand a chance. The 2012 voting results highlighted what a farce the hall has become, and it is going to take a change of mindset before players like Ortiz are even considered. His case will be an interesting one to watch when the time comes, but for now we can enjoy watching him tear the leather off the ball in the Red Sox jersey for a few more seasons.

Early Thoughts: AL Central

A month in the books across baseball, and with some teams defying expectations in a good way - hello Rockies - there are others that have been so unimaginably bad that it's hard to think we liked them so much in the pre-season - hey Angels and Blue Jays. It's always tough to read too much into the first month of a season, but here are my early season thoughts of the AL Central representatives:


Kansas City Royals - 15-10

The Royals made a gutsy (and in my opinion, bad) trade in the off-season when they acquired James Shields and laid down a marker that the new mantra was 'win now'. So far, they have been quietly impressive, despite awful starts from youngsters Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas. They've hit .250 and .176 respectively and have combined for zero home runs and just ten RBI. The two guys billed to be future heart of the order hitters have been nothing but disappointing so far. However, Alex Gordon has continued to impress, hitting .323 with some pop, whilst Alcides Escobar has set out to prove that 2012 was no fluke, stealing five bases to go with the .290 average. Billy Butler and Sal Perez are yet to really heat up, but this line-up has been able to manufacture enough runs to win so far.

The area that needed improvement heading into the season was the rotation, and to the credit of the front office, it has been a lot better so far. James Shields has been exactly what they expected from him; a 3.09 ERA and nearly a strikeout per inning, although the run support hasn't been there for him yet as he is stuck with just one win. Somewhat surprisingly, Ervin Santana has been the pick of the starters, with a 2.00 ERA on his way to three wins. Jeremy Guthrie has also been rock solid, with a 3.06 ERA in 32 innings, whilst Wade Davis has recovered from an early season shocker to be a reliable innings eater. The bullpen suffered a little wobble on the road-trip to Philadelphia, but Greg Holland has settled back into the closer's role, with 6 saves in 7 opportunities, whilst Kelvin Herrera has actually struggled of late. Pint-sized reliever Tim Collins continues to defy the doubts scouts had about his size on his way to a lights-out 1.00 ERA at a K per inning as he keeps all left-handed bats quiet.


Detroit Tigers - 15-11

Coming into the year, the consensus AL Central pick was the Detroit Tigers. Partly because they're an excellent team, and partly because the AL Central is the worst division in baseball. So far, the Tigers have profited from the latter, as their 15 wins has kept them near the top of the division. That's not to say that they've played badly of course, with reigning AL MVP Miguel Cabrera hitting .367 with a .442 OBP and veteran Torii Hunter continues to rake with a .375 average through the first month (partly fuelled by a mind-blowing .442 BABIP since the 2012 all-star break). Prince Fielder has jacked six home runs and leads the team with 19 walks, whilst Austin Jackson continues to cement his spot as one of the best center fielders and lead-off hitters in baseball. This line-up is fearsome.

On the mound, the Tigers have a devastating top four on paper, and this fact was highlighted by Anibal Sanchez's ridiculous 17 strikeout performance against the Braves - he is the fourth starter. Verlander hasn't been vintage, which is kind of ridiculous to say considering he owns a 1.95 ERA. It says a lot of how much we expect of him that I hadn't been impressed with what I had seen. Scherzer continues to be a strikeout machine, although his 4.02 ERA shows how he can be inconsistent at times. Fister has been solid but after a strong spring training showing, Rick Porcello has been awful, with an 8.84 ERA and with Drew Smyly impressing out of the bullpen, it's surely a matter of time until Porcello is replaced. I'd like to see him given a chance on a team that actually has an infield defense, but the once-top prospect has been nothing but disappointing in recent seasons. The bullpen was shaky in early season goings, with Phil Coke, Bruce Rondon and Joaquin Benoit all given chances to seize the role, but ultimately the Tigers decided to stick with the devil they know and acquired Jose Valverde. Valverde's stuff is pretty awful, but he has the much-desired 'proven closer' tag, and will get a fair share of chances on this team.

Minnesota Twins - 12-12

The Twins had several games cancelled in the early season goings thanks to bitterly cold weather in Minnesota. When on the field, the team has been able to scratch together a hand .500 record. Joe Mauer has been the lynchpin at the plate, hitting .287 with a pair of home runs, but the meagre 8 RBI must be cause for concern. Josh Willingham has once again been the main power source, smiting five big flies and his 16 walks lead the team. The line-up is still far from impressive however, as bit-part players like Mastroianni, Parmelee and Plouffe have struggled. Aaron Hicks shocking early showings led to his demotion, whilst rookie Oswaldo Arcia may be one to watch for the future.

The rotation was the main areas of weakness I identified in the pre-season, but after a shaky start it has begun to put together some better showings of late. Kevin Correia has been the ace, with three wins and a 2.23 ERA in 36 innings of work. His low K rate suggests this is likely a lucky start, but the Twins will take all the luck they can get this season. Vance Worley and Mike Pelfrey have both been disastrous so far this season, with a 7.22 and 7.66 ERA respectively. However, the bullpen has been pretty solid, with closer Glen Perkins saving all six opportunities granted to him as well as striking out a hitter per inning. A brief look at the stats suggests this team is outperforming itself, and whilst there are some bright sparks, this rotation just isn't good enough to allow them to contend.

Cleveland Indians - 12-13

The Cleveland Indians made some noise in the pre-season, signing several free agents, but despite a four game winning streak they find themselves with a below-.500 record in fourth place of the AL Central after the first month. The .270 team average is fourth in the AL, and the star performer with the bat has been switch-hitting catcher Carlos Santana, who's .395 average leads the Majors. He's also jacked five home runs and has 13 walks to the 16 strikeouts, so a monster season may be in order for the 26 year old. Ryan Raburn is hitting .364 at the moment, thanks largely to a ridiculous past few days in which he has gone 12-for-14 with four home runs and Michael Bourn was hitting well until he suffered a hand injury sliding into first base (who knew that was a bad idea?).

Unfortunately, for all the promise shown on offense, this team continues to be dire on the mound. Justin Masterson continues to frustrate, as every unhittable outing is followed by a weak one, and his 3.12 ERA may well go up further in the coming weeks. Ubaldo Jimenez is continuing to prove that his days as an effective pitcher are over, with a 7.13 ERA, although Brett Myers has been even worse as his ERA heads north of 8. Despite having nothing to work with, the bullpen has actually been pretty effective. Chris Perez has just a 1.13 ERA, but he has had a laughable four save opportunities. Vinnie Pestano, Joe Smith and Bryan Shaw help form a pretty handy bullpen, and Trevor Bauer has shown promise that is outmatched only by his wildness in his two spot starts in the Majors (13 walks in 10 innings).

Chicago White Sox - 11-15

The bottom-dwellers of the AL Central is the weak hitting White Sox, whose .231 team batting average is second worst in the AL. The sole bright spot on offense has been third baseman Conor Gillaspie, although his 6:18 walk:strikeout rate suggests that regression from his .323 average is due. Adam Dunn has continued to prove that walks, strikeouts and home runs are all you need, as his .141 average is barely even a surprise any more despite the fact he has mashed six home runs. Alex Rios and Alejandro De Aza have shown promise, but both need to provide more to get this offense rolling. Paul Konerko has also been mightily disappointing, hitting just .237.

In direct contrast to the Indians, the White Sox success has largely been due to their rotation. I tend not to watch White Sox games in order to avoid the insufferable Hawk Harrelson, but was able to watch Chris Sale recently, and despite his awkward arm action and subsequent injury risks, he continues to look like a bona fide ace. He got roughed up by the Indians in a recent start, but the 3.83 ERA is by no means disastrous when he is rolling along at a strikeout per inning, although he has thrown 40 innings already in the young season. Jake Peavy leads the starters with a 3.38 ERA and Jose Quintana has been impressive on his way to a 2-0 record. Gavin Floyd's 5.18 ERA is disappointing, but if he can cut down on the walks that number should fall. After being shaky in the closer's role last season, Addison Reed has been fairly untouchable this season so far, with a 1.50 ERA whilst saving 9 saves in as many opportunities. Jesse Crain and Matt Thornton have also been effective out of the 'pen, though Nate Jones has been struggling so far.