Two weeks have passed since my last post, and two weeks are left (well, 13 days) in the MLB season. In most ways this is cause for concern - how can it have passed so quickly?! - but in every other way this is the best time of the season. The previous 150 games can be thrown away now. Either you're in contention or you're not, and if you are in contention, then every game has to be treated like a play-off game. As the Red Sox and Braves found out last season, there are 162 games for a reason. Even if you're on top after 161 it means nothing if you've fallen out of it after the next day.
Some teams can almost guarantee their spots in October baseball. The Nats can be pretty confident that they will have a favourable advantage going into their NLDS series, and the Braves, Giants and Rangers can all feel confident that their season won't last just 162 games. After that the waters become a little murkier. In the AL, the East and Central continue to be gripping. The Orioles refuse to quit, more recently winning a marathon 18 inning game that lasted well into the early hours before following that up with another sapping 11 inning victory. Their extra-inning and one-run records continue to be impeccable. However, the Yankees are doing what the Yankees do best - they are playing the spoiler role. As the O's try and continue their fairytale story, the Yanks keep grinding out wins keeping themselves at the forefront of the AL East picture. The Rays meanwhile have fallen out of contention. The return of Evan Longoria unable to mask the clear hitting deficiencies as Cy Young type seasons from David Price and Fernando Rodney appear to imminently become fruitless. In terms of schedules, the Orioles enjoy a reasonably easy final 13 games, with 6 against the Red Sox and 4 against the Blue Jays. The Yankees have a tough 3 game set against the Athletics, but finish the season against the Twins, Jays and Red Sox. Sweeps are going to be the key to the title.
In the Central, the twists and turns continue to take place. After the White Sox swept the Twins and the Tigers were only able to take two from the tribe, the Sox followed that up with a crucial victory over the Tigers on Monday. However, an unbelievable couple of days of hitting from MVP candidate Miguel Cabrera has given the Tigers new life, with the bogey-team Royals holding up the resurgent Sox. The Tigers still stand two games out in the Central, and a wildcard spot looks to be out of the question. But if the astonishing hitting of Cabrera can continue, the Tigers still have a chance in this division. The Tigers will also have the benefit of enjoying a cosy final week of the season against the Royals(2) and Twins whilst the White Sox will have tough series against the Angels and Rays as well as two sets with the Indians. Calling a winner in this division will be impossible.
In the West, the Rangers continue to set the pace but the Athletics continue to churn out victories. They remain just 4 games back in the hunt for the division title, and 3.5 games ahead of fellow division rivals Los Angeles Angels in the wildcard hunt. Their young rotation and resurgent hitting has showed no signs of slowing, and should the Rangers slip up over the last 10 games, the Athletics will have no problems with filling in at the top of the division. They won't have an easy time of it however, facing the Yankees, Rangers(2) and Mariners in their last 4 series. The Rangers will also have a tough few series, facing the Mariners, A's(2) and Angels, so neither side will have an easy finish to the season. The Angels continue to slide out of the play-off picture, although they are still clinging on to a wildcard hope by a thread. They will face the White Sox, Mariners(2) and Rangers and need to win at least 10 out of 12 if they want to reach the playoffs.
The NL wildcard picture is no clearer than it was two weeks ago. The Pirates have faltered and fallen out of contention but their spot has been taken by the flying Brewers, who have finally sorted out their bullpen issues and are riding another MVP-calibre season from Ryan Braun. They are just 2.5 games out of the wildcard race, and unlike the Cardinals have momentum behind them. The Cards are stalling, and with the Dodgers and Brewers breathing down their necks must put together a strong final 2 weeks. The Phillies and D-Backs both still have a sniff of the wildcard, but it looks like they'll need a good slice of fortune if they want to work their way into October baseball. The Cards have a cushy pair of series' against the Cubs and Astros, but finish the season against the Nats and Reds. They'll want to have breathing room going into those games. The Brewers have it the other way around. They face a tough 6 games against the Nats and Reds, but if they can take 4 of 6 they'll be confident going into the final 6 against the Astros and Padres. The Dodgers will also face the Reds, but follow that up with the Padres and Rockies before finishing up against the Giants. The D-Backs are perhaps best placed for a late run, with 6 games against the Rockies and 3 games against the Cubs sandwiching a 3 game series against the Giants.
It's set to be a fantastic finish to the season, and whichever teams do make the post-season will have earned their spot - you don't come out on top after 162 games unless you're a good side. Once you hit the play-offs it's anyone's game.
On an aside, I thought I'd string together my award winners as I currently think would be fair...
AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera
AL Cy Young: Fernando Rodney
AL Rookie of the Year: Mike Trout
AL Manager of the Year: Bob Melvin
NL MVP: Buster Posey
NL Cy Young: R.A. Dickey
NL Rookie of the Year: Bryce Harper
NL Manager of the Year: Davey Johnson
But there is still plenty of time for that to change. Feel free to disagree - I'd like to hear your thoughts!
Thursday 20 September 2012
Wednesday 5 September 2012
Breaking down the World Series contenders
So, with less than a month to go until post-season baseball is upon us, we have a good idea of who will and who won't be competing in three weeks time. There are some constants, with the Rangers, Yanks and Tigers all competing as expected. No-one would have expected the Nationals to sport the best record in baseball, the Athletics to be setting the wildcard pace or the Orioles to be pushing the Yankees into a fight for a post-season berth. In this post, I'll attempt to breakdown which teams are contenders and which teams are pretenders as far as vying for the elusive ring goes...
1. The Washington Nationals - 83-52
The story so far: Having already surpassed the franchise record for wins in a season, the sky is the limit for the multi-talented team in the nation's capital. Playing in the same division as the Phillies, Braves and revamped Marlins looked like being too tough a challenge to overcome for the Nats at the season's start, but they have been the most consistent team in the Majors to this point. The main reason is the super-consistent rotation. Strasburg has sparked, Gio Gonzalez sets the NL pace in wins and Jordan Zimmermann has continued his astonishing comeback from Tommy John surgery. Both Ross Detwiler and Edwin Jackson have winning records too, and have been performing admirably in recent games which suggests that even without their ace (who is being shut down after his next start) solid starting pitching will be the bread and butter for this team. With bat in hand, they have enjoyed strong seasons from Adam LaRoche, Ryan Zimmerman and Ian Desmond, whilst players like Michael Morse, Bryce Harper and Jayson Werth have all chimed in with timely hits.
The verdict: This is a side that will be tough to beat in a 5 or 7 game series. Their starting rotation is deep, probably the deepest in baseball with the Phillies out of contention and Lincecum out of form. The line-up doesn't really contain any MVP-calibre hitters, but 1-9 in the line-up can all contribute. The only weakness may well be experience - this is a side that has never been involved in the post-season before, and other than Jayson Werth, the team lacks a player who post-season experience. However, in Ryan Zimmerman they have a natural leader, and the season will have instilled tons of belief in them. If they get on a roll in the post-season then look out.
2. The Cincinnati Reds - 83-54
The story so far: The Cincinnati Reds enjoyed a tumultuous 2011, which was hampered by poor pitching and inconsistent hitting as they compiled a losing record. When star slugger Joey Votto went down injured, fans could have been forgiven for thinking that a similar outcome would arise, but instead, the Reds have been resurgent, putting together the second best record in the Majors and going 32-16 in Votto's absence. Front of the rotation man Johnny Cueto is putting together a Cy Young calibre season despite pitching in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the Majors. His 17 victories leads the NL, as does his 2.58 ERA and his stellar work every 5 days has given the Reds a much needed rotation boost. At the back-end of games, Aroldis Chapman has been spectacular, and with the bats, Brandon Philips, Jay Bruce and Todd Frazier have all excelled in Votto's absence.
The verdict: This is a team that has flown under the radar so far this season, which speaks volumes of their sustained excellence. A fully fit Joey Votto will be a huge boost for them, and if Cueto can maintain his regular season excellence they will be a hard team to beat. The addition of Broxton to the bullpen backfired originally, but he has now settled into a groove, and he, Marshall and Chapman will prove an effective trio at the backend of games. The main weakness for the Reds continues to surround their starting pitching. The off-season acquisition of Mat Latos was a shrewd move, and he and Cueto should be dominant come the post-season. However, after them, a trio of Bronson Arroyo, Homer Bailey and Mike Leake does not inspire confidence, and they will need to be at the top of their games if the Reds want to win 5/7 game series.
3. The Texas Rangers - 80-55
The story so far: No surprises here. After two consecutive World Series appearances (and losses), the Rangers have once again come back with a vengeance, and once again they will be hard to beat come October. Hitting is always the name of the game in Arlington, and with Josh Hamilton finally able to put together a full season, the line-up continues to provide fireworks from 1 through 9. Adrian Beltre has been hotter than anyone in baseball over the last month, and the 1-2 punch of Ian Kinsler and Elvis Andrus hasn't failed to produce again. Michael Young and Mike Napoli have been disappointing, which only makes the prolific hitting more impressive, as players like Mitch Moreland and David Murphy have stepped up. On the rubber, the loss of CJ Wilson hasn't had too dramatic an effect, as leftie Matt Harrison has been superb for the Rangers. Rookie Yu Darvish has combined moments of brilliance with occasionally wild control, but the bullpen has once again been peerless, with Joe Nathan bouncing back from injury stronger than ever in the 9th inning role.
The verdict: The Rangers are a tough team to ignore and rightly so. A lineup containing Kinsler, Andrus, Hamilton, Beltre, Cruz, Young and Napoli is potentially devastating, and few rotations will be able to keep them off base. Starting pitching has once again been a problem for the Rangers, with Matt Harrison's excellence offset by the inconsistency of Yu Darvish and Derek Holland. Trade acquisition Ryan Dempster provides an experienced head to the pitching staff, but this is by no means a strong starting 5. If Texas are going to win, they are going to do so by outgunning their opponents - but there's nothing to suggest that won't work...
4. The San Francisco Giants - 77-59
The story so far: It's been a season of 'same-old' for Giants fans. Once again their starting rotation has been dominant, with Lincecum's dramatic fall from grace disguised brilliantly by impressive seasons from Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner and Ryan Vogelsong. And once again, the offense has been anaemic at times. Now disgraced NL hitting leader Melky Cabrera has been banned for the rest of the season, putting a big hole in the Giants line-up which will be tough to fill. The deadline acquisition of Hunter Pence has so far been unable to spark much life into the line-up, although the resurgent hitting of catching phenomenon Buster Posey deserves much praise. In the bullpen, closing games out has been a bit of a lottery at times with Brian Wilson out injured, with Casilla, Romo and now 'closer by committee' all getting chances to be the 9th inning man.
The verdict: The NL West has been as hard to guess as any division this season, but the Giants have finally stretched out a sizeable 4.5 game lead. Should they make the post-season, they will be a tough team to beat, as the experience from 2 years ago combined with excellent starting pitching make them a serious challenge over 5/7 games. Although their line-up is unlikely to scare many teams, they've proved that they can provide more than enough support for their pitchers and AT&T park suits their team perfectly. However, the one key difference between now and 2010 is Tim Lincecum. He has been dire all season on the mound, and will need to recapture his 2010 form if the Giants really want to take it all and if anyone can turn it around when they need him most, it's the two-time Cy Young winner.
5. The Baltimore Orioles - 76-59
The story so far: Ok, hands up who had the Orioles top of the AL East coming into the home straight? Well if your hand is up you're a liar or a time traveller, because this astonishing season from the Orioles has caught everyone by surprise. Most of Baltimore's success can be attributed to the 'clutch' trait - in extra inning games the Orioles are 12-2 and in 1 run games they are 24-7. These stats speak volumes of two things. That the Orioles are one of the top teams at coming up with key hits, and that their bullpen is absolutely shut-down. The Orioles are a team that does not rely on speed (they rank last in team steals) or average (they rank 21st in the Majors) but rather big hits. They rank T-5th in home runs, and do well in all 2-out or runners-on categories. Put simply, the Orioles have ridden their luck with the bat in hand. The pitching has been effective if not dominant - the rotation has chopped and changed frequently, but the bullpen has been the real strength for the Orioles this year. In close/late games, the ERA of 2.15 is best in the Majors, and Jim Johnson/Pedro Strop have been a dominant 1/2 punch at the business end of games.
The verdict: As great as it has been to see the Orioles de-throne the Yankees, at least for a moment, one has to expect that regression will take place. They've put themselves in the best position possible to grab a post-season berth, and the new wildcard system may benefit them hugely. Their fate is likely to hinge on the next week. They play the Yankees and Rays in back-to-back series followed by a tough trip to Oakland. Their last 10 games however, are against the Red Sox and Blue Jays - two teams who have fallen out of contention in the East. Should the Orioles make the play-offs, it will be tough for them to compete without a reliable ace, but the toughness and depth of the team will make them a hard team to beat. One of the best stories of 2012, the Orioles will be hoping that their fairytale season isn't about to hit midnight.
6. The New York Yankees - 76-59
The story so far: What would October baseball be without the Yankees? Despite being plagued by injuries all season long, the Yanks just haven't gone away, and up until now have set the pace in the AL East. CC Sabathia, Alex Rodriguez, Brett Gardner, Mariano Rivera, Mark Teixeira, Michael Pineda, Andy Pettite and now Curtis Granderson have all spent time off the field, most of them extended stretches. Most teams' post-season hopes would have been dead and buried long ago with an injury list that comprehensive, but the Yankees are no ordinary team. Despite frequently lacklustre starting pitching, despite offensive woes and despite an ever-increasing injury list, the Yanks once again find themselves in the heat of the playoff race. Hate em or love em, you have to respect em.
The verdict: The most decorated team in baseball aren't the type to be content with a play-off appearance. Once they get there, they'll want the whole thing, and the heart and resolve of this team suggests they have the winning mentality they need. However, eventually injuries will catch up to you. Behind the unusually fragile CC Sabathia, the Yankees pitching staff is extremely weak. In a 7 game series they could find themselves struggling to keep pace with a high-powered offense. On the plus side, they boast one of the strongest line-ups in baseball. Granderson, Rodriguez, Cano, Teixeira, heck even Derek Jeter are capable of impacting a game at any time, and keeping a line-up like that quiet is easier said than done. First the Yankees need to make the playoffs however, and a kind last 7 games against the Twins and Blue Jays might be what is needed to get them there.
7. Oakland Athletics - 76-59
The story so far: We could quite easily play the 'hands-up' game here again. Completely gutting your rotation and bullpen and getting rid of your most productive hitter doesn't usually result in post-season runs, but then Billy Beane never did things the easy way. Having lost or traded away Gio Gonzalez, Trevor Cahill, Josh Outman, Andrew Bailey, and Josh Willingham, the A's were once again starting from scratch. Their best starter, Brett Anderson, was also recovering from Tommy John surgery and wasn't expected back until late this season. Instead, they took a punt on back-up Red Sox outfielder Josh Reddick and Cuban youtube sensation Yoenis Cespedes. Astonishingly, it worked. Jarrod Parker and Tommy Milone have been outstanding in their rookie season, Brett Anderson has slotted back into the rotation seamlessly and Josh Reddick and Yoenis Cespedes have been a revelation in the 3/4 holes.
The verdict: By far the best feel-good story in the Majors this season, the Athletics have overcome salary issues and a fire-sale of most of their team to put together a record better than the Angels and on a par with the Yankees. An astonishing 13 walk-off wins have contributed to their record, and for the neutrals, seeing the Athletics do so well is the perfect hollywood story. The A's still face a tough battle to reach the post-season, with the Rangers running away with the AL West, their only hope is to get in through one of the two wildcard spots. It would be a fair reward for what has been an incredible season.
8. Atlanta Braves - 76-60
The story so far: Another team that has rather flown under the radar, the Braves have been solid if unspectacular in compiling their 76-60 record, overshadowed rather by the unexpected success of the Nationals. The pitching has been solid, none more so that in recent weeks when the addition of Kris Medlen to the rotation paid off rather as he has strung together an incredible 36.1 innings without giving up an earned run. The hitting has also continued to churn along productively, as Jason Heyward begins to show off the raw talent he displayed in his rookie season and Freddie Freeman continues his steep upward ascent. The Braves also have a fairytale story on their side, as it is the final season of future hall-of-famer Chipper Jones's career. The talismanic third baseman has continued to be a clubhouse leader as well as a potent bat, and a post-season appearance is the least that he deserves in his swansong year.
The verdict: In many ways, the Braves are a 'boring' team. They're not made up of MVP/Cy Young candidates, but rather hard-working players like Michael Bourn, Martin Prado and Tim Hudson who do their job on a consistent basis. For many reasons, this is why the Braves could be a team to watch out for. They were deeply wounded by the terrible September they endured last season which resulted in them falling out of the post-season, and if they make it to October, they could easily stir up a surprise or two whilst they're there.
9. The Tampa Bay Rays - 75-61
The story so far: Any good feeling that had carried over from the end of last year's regular season to the beginning of this year's regular season evaporated quickly in Tampa Bay, as star slugger Evan Longoria went down injured early. Since then, the offense has failed mightily, with new signing Carlos Pena struggling at the plate and the bats even quieted to the extent of a perfect game. However, the pitching has been a bright point. Not as dominant as some billed them to be, but David Price has been superb, and James Shields/Jeremy Hellickson/Matt Moore all offer excellent stuff on a less consistent basis. Now that Evan Longoria is back the bats have started to pick up again, and the Rays are starting to sniff a repeat of last year as they try and spoil the Orioles party.
The verdict: If they reach the post-season, they're going to be a tough team to put away (as Texas found out last year). Their starting rotation is deep, the team ERA leads the major league and hitters like Longoria, Zobrist, BJ Upton and Matt Joyce are not to be under-estimated. However, they sit third in their division, and will need a strong September run in order to force themselves into the playoff picture. If anyone can do it then it is the Rays though.
10. The St Louis Cardinals - 74-62
The story so far: After last year's dream play-off run was sparked by a resurgent September, the Cardinals appear to be trying to pull off the same trick again, as they find themselves well out of the NL Central race and only just clinging on to the second wildcard spot. Last year's hero Chris Carpenter is shelved for the season, and so the ace of the rotation is now Adam Wainwright. Wainwright has been solid for the Cards, if not yet back to his sparkling best, but he is ably supported by the standout Kyle Lohse, Jaime Garcia and rookie Joe Kelly. Yadier Molina has had a career year on offense, and regular contributors Matt Holliday and Carlos Beltran have continued to make the Cards a line-up to fear. However, they have spent the whole season playing catch-up, thanks largely to weak pitching, and now find themselves in a scrap for a wildcard spot.
The verdict: Of the teams vying for the wildcard spots, the Cardinals are the team that look best placed to take one. However, with the streaking Dodgers breathing down their neck, one slip-up will cost the defending champions. The pivotal series will be a four game set between the Cards and Dodgers next weekend, and they face a tough final assignment against the Nats. Should the Cards reach the post-season, they will feel as though they can start afresh, and no team has the same kind of experience as the Cardinals after last season. However, the off-season loss of Albert Pujols might prove to be the decisive factor.
11. The Chicago White Sox - 73-62
The story so far: An ageing line-up, a rotation lacking an ace and a tough division meant that everything was stacked up against the White Sox entering this season. Resurgent hitting from Paul Konerko, Adam Dunn and Alex Rios combined with elite pitching from Chris Sale combined with the weak performances of the Tigers have stuck the White Sox atop the AL Central and in control of their own destiny. The hitting has been the main reason for the White Sox success, with Konerko, Dunn and Rios combining with De Aza and Ramirez to form a strong line-up. Chris Sale has turned into an ace from nowhere, and he, Peavy, Floyd and more recently Liriano form a strong rotation. At the back-end of games, Addison Reed has been highly impressive, and the trade for Brett Myers has bolstered their options for the 8th inning.
The verdict: All season it has only seemed to be a matter of time until the Tigers took over the AL Central lead, and after a series sweep last weekend they did indeed move into a tie for the lead. However, they have once again stuttered since then, and with the White Sox continuing to churn out the wins they are giving themselves every chance to take a post-season spot. A lot will depend on the hitting of Paul Konerko who is the key slugger in the line-up if they want to go deep in the post-season, although the pitching of Chris Sale has suggested that he can earn a win any time he steps on the mound.
12. The Los Angeles Angels - 73-63
The story so far: After splashing the cash in the off-season, acquiring Albert Pujols through free agency, the Angels expected to challenge the Rangers for the division title. However, despite one of the finest rookie seasons in MLB history from Mike Trout, their post-season berth is now in doubt. Jered Weaver has continued to pitch like an ace, with a 16-4 record and 2.86 ERA. However, Dan Haren has struggled so far this year, limping to a 9-10 record with a 4.58 ERA. C.J. Wilson has also struggled a little in his move from Texas, although his 11-9 record and 3.85 ERA are not bad for a no.3 starter. Ervin Santana has struggled mightily with his consistency, although he has recently begun to pitch more confidently and deadline acquisition Zack Greinke has put a sluggish start to his Angels career behind him. With the bat, Trout and Trumbo have been an explosive combination for most of the year, and with Albert Pujols entering his stride the team could start lighting up the sky. However, Kendrys Morales has for the most part struggled, and players like Erick Aybar and Peter Bourjos have not lived up to expectations
The verdict: Despite all these issues, the Angels are still just 3.5 games out of the wildcard hunt. A schedule including 5 games against the A's, 3 against the Tigers, 3 against the White Sox and 6 against the Tigers will make sure they are tested, but if they want to make the post-season they will need to win 2 of 3 from here out. The players in their lineup have the star quality necessary to go along way once they get to the playoffs, but getting there has so far proved to be a tougher challenge than expected.
13. The Detroit Tigers
The story so far: It's a mystery to many how Detroit still find themselves out of the playoffs this season. Verlander has pitched phenomenally, Scherzer has made the step up to the elite tier of pitchers often outdueling hid MVP team-mate, much-heralded 3-4 punch Cabrera and Fielder have both performed well - so where has it all gone wrong? The truth is that other than Verlander and Scherzer, the Tigers rotation has really struggled. No other pitchers have compiled winning records, as Fister and Porcello have struggled with inconsistency and the 5th starter's spot changing all the time. Detroit have also had their struggles with runners in scoring position, as pitchers have learnt that if they can restrict the damage of Cabrera and Fielder, there aren't many other potent bats in the line-up - they may be missing Victor Martinez more than they expected to.
The verdict: Despite their woes so far this season, I still fully expect to see the Tigers in the post-season, and I still fully expect them to go a long way when they get there. The key 4 game set comes next week against the White Sox, and they will need to repeat the sweep they undertook last weekend. Their last 10 games come up against the Twins and the Royals, and it is vital that they win at least 7 or 8 of those if they want to win their division. Verlander and Scherzer will prove a lethal combo in the playoffs however, and the bats are heating up at the right time. Look out!
14. The Los Angeles Dodgers - 73-64
The story so far: Like their cross-town rivals, the Dodgers splashed the cash in a 'now or never' bid to win a World Series. So far, the plan hasn't worked exactly as intended, as they are 4.5 games out of the division and 1.5 games out of the wildcard race. The acquisitions of Adrian Gonzalez, Hanley Ramirez and Shane Victorino have bolstered the line-up significantly, but in the pitching-heavy NL West, the Dodgers lack starters behind Clayton Kershaw and Chris Capuano, as Chad Billingsley, Aaron Harang and now Josh Beckett have all fought inconsistency. In the pen, the Dodgers have lost shutdown closer Kenley Jansen when they need him most, although Belisario and League have filled the void capably so far.
The verdict: When you look at the squad, you have to expect that they will comeback in September and find a way into the playoffs. However, there simply aren't any easy spots going in the NL at the moment. Atlanta and St Louis set the wildcard pace at the moment, and if one slips up then the Pirates could always jump in rather than the Dodgers. They face a really tough schedule over the next two weeks, as they will have to face the Giants, D-Backs, Cardinals, Nationals and Reds in succession. However, the season finishes with two more comfortable series against the Padres and Rockies. By the time they get there, however, the Dodgers may need to sweep them in order to clinch a post-season spot.
15. The Pittsburgh Pirates - 71-64
The story so far: Another surprise team in the running, the Pirates are only one year removed from having the worst record in baseball. Behind MVP candidate Andrew McCutchen, the offense has improved drastically, and with A.J. Burnett turning it around after his move from the Bronx, they have been able to win games on a consistent basis. James McDonald was superb for the first half of the season, and though he has cooled down recently, his season line is still highly impressive (12-7, 3.90 ERA).
The verdict: Although they currently sit furthest out of the wildcard race, their schedule is by far the cosiest, as they have 6 games against the Astros, 6 games against the Cubs and 3 games against the Mets. If they can get on a roll they could still play a part in October baseball, although the weaknesses in their line-ups and lack of a legitimate ace makes me think that the Pirates aren't genuine contenders yet.
If I had to pick now, I would go with:
AL East winner: Yankees
AL Central winner: Tigers
AL West winner: Rangers
AL Wildcard 1: Rays
AL Wildcard 2: Athletics
NL East winner: Nationals
NL Central winner: Reds
NL West winner: Giants
NL Wildcard 1: Braves
NL Wildcard 2: Cardinals
So there you have it. I see both big-spenders from Los Angeles missing out, with the Tigers pipping the White Sox, and the Rays and Athletics holding off the Orioles on the last day of the season.
In terms of the World Series, I see the Rangers taking on the Giants in a 2010 replay, but this time the Rangers exact their revenge to make it 3rd time lucky. Hard to discount the Tigers though. Let's see how wrong I am!
1. The Washington Nationals - 83-52
The story so far: Having already surpassed the franchise record for wins in a season, the sky is the limit for the multi-talented team in the nation's capital. Playing in the same division as the Phillies, Braves and revamped Marlins looked like being too tough a challenge to overcome for the Nats at the season's start, but they have been the most consistent team in the Majors to this point. The main reason is the super-consistent rotation. Strasburg has sparked, Gio Gonzalez sets the NL pace in wins and Jordan Zimmermann has continued his astonishing comeback from Tommy John surgery. Both Ross Detwiler and Edwin Jackson have winning records too, and have been performing admirably in recent games which suggests that even without their ace (who is being shut down after his next start) solid starting pitching will be the bread and butter for this team. With bat in hand, they have enjoyed strong seasons from Adam LaRoche, Ryan Zimmerman and Ian Desmond, whilst players like Michael Morse, Bryce Harper and Jayson Werth have all chimed in with timely hits.
The verdict: This is a side that will be tough to beat in a 5 or 7 game series. Their starting rotation is deep, probably the deepest in baseball with the Phillies out of contention and Lincecum out of form. The line-up doesn't really contain any MVP-calibre hitters, but 1-9 in the line-up can all contribute. The only weakness may well be experience - this is a side that has never been involved in the post-season before, and other than Jayson Werth, the team lacks a player who post-season experience. However, in Ryan Zimmerman they have a natural leader, and the season will have instilled tons of belief in them. If they get on a roll in the post-season then look out.
2. The Cincinnati Reds - 83-54
The story so far: The Cincinnati Reds enjoyed a tumultuous 2011, which was hampered by poor pitching and inconsistent hitting as they compiled a losing record. When star slugger Joey Votto went down injured, fans could have been forgiven for thinking that a similar outcome would arise, but instead, the Reds have been resurgent, putting together the second best record in the Majors and going 32-16 in Votto's absence. Front of the rotation man Johnny Cueto is putting together a Cy Young calibre season despite pitching in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the Majors. His 17 victories leads the NL, as does his 2.58 ERA and his stellar work every 5 days has given the Reds a much needed rotation boost. At the back-end of games, Aroldis Chapman has been spectacular, and with the bats, Brandon Philips, Jay Bruce and Todd Frazier have all excelled in Votto's absence.
The verdict: This is a team that has flown under the radar so far this season, which speaks volumes of their sustained excellence. A fully fit Joey Votto will be a huge boost for them, and if Cueto can maintain his regular season excellence they will be a hard team to beat. The addition of Broxton to the bullpen backfired originally, but he has now settled into a groove, and he, Marshall and Chapman will prove an effective trio at the backend of games. The main weakness for the Reds continues to surround their starting pitching. The off-season acquisition of Mat Latos was a shrewd move, and he and Cueto should be dominant come the post-season. However, after them, a trio of Bronson Arroyo, Homer Bailey and Mike Leake does not inspire confidence, and they will need to be at the top of their games if the Reds want to win 5/7 game series.
3. The Texas Rangers - 80-55
The story so far: No surprises here. After two consecutive World Series appearances (and losses), the Rangers have once again come back with a vengeance, and once again they will be hard to beat come October. Hitting is always the name of the game in Arlington, and with Josh Hamilton finally able to put together a full season, the line-up continues to provide fireworks from 1 through 9. Adrian Beltre has been hotter than anyone in baseball over the last month, and the 1-2 punch of Ian Kinsler and Elvis Andrus hasn't failed to produce again. Michael Young and Mike Napoli have been disappointing, which only makes the prolific hitting more impressive, as players like Mitch Moreland and David Murphy have stepped up. On the rubber, the loss of CJ Wilson hasn't had too dramatic an effect, as leftie Matt Harrison has been superb for the Rangers. Rookie Yu Darvish has combined moments of brilliance with occasionally wild control, but the bullpen has once again been peerless, with Joe Nathan bouncing back from injury stronger than ever in the 9th inning role.
The verdict: The Rangers are a tough team to ignore and rightly so. A lineup containing Kinsler, Andrus, Hamilton, Beltre, Cruz, Young and Napoli is potentially devastating, and few rotations will be able to keep them off base. Starting pitching has once again been a problem for the Rangers, with Matt Harrison's excellence offset by the inconsistency of Yu Darvish and Derek Holland. Trade acquisition Ryan Dempster provides an experienced head to the pitching staff, but this is by no means a strong starting 5. If Texas are going to win, they are going to do so by outgunning their opponents - but there's nothing to suggest that won't work...
4. The San Francisco Giants - 77-59
The story so far: It's been a season of 'same-old' for Giants fans. Once again their starting rotation has been dominant, with Lincecum's dramatic fall from grace disguised brilliantly by impressive seasons from Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner and Ryan Vogelsong. And once again, the offense has been anaemic at times. Now disgraced NL hitting leader Melky Cabrera has been banned for the rest of the season, putting a big hole in the Giants line-up which will be tough to fill. The deadline acquisition of Hunter Pence has so far been unable to spark much life into the line-up, although the resurgent hitting of catching phenomenon Buster Posey deserves much praise. In the bullpen, closing games out has been a bit of a lottery at times with Brian Wilson out injured, with Casilla, Romo and now 'closer by committee' all getting chances to be the 9th inning man.
The verdict: The NL West has been as hard to guess as any division this season, but the Giants have finally stretched out a sizeable 4.5 game lead. Should they make the post-season, they will be a tough team to beat, as the experience from 2 years ago combined with excellent starting pitching make them a serious challenge over 5/7 games. Although their line-up is unlikely to scare many teams, they've proved that they can provide more than enough support for their pitchers and AT&T park suits their team perfectly. However, the one key difference between now and 2010 is Tim Lincecum. He has been dire all season on the mound, and will need to recapture his 2010 form if the Giants really want to take it all and if anyone can turn it around when they need him most, it's the two-time Cy Young winner.
5. The Baltimore Orioles - 76-59
The story so far: Ok, hands up who had the Orioles top of the AL East coming into the home straight? Well if your hand is up you're a liar or a time traveller, because this astonishing season from the Orioles has caught everyone by surprise. Most of Baltimore's success can be attributed to the 'clutch' trait - in extra inning games the Orioles are 12-2 and in 1 run games they are 24-7. These stats speak volumes of two things. That the Orioles are one of the top teams at coming up with key hits, and that their bullpen is absolutely shut-down. The Orioles are a team that does not rely on speed (they rank last in team steals) or average (they rank 21st in the Majors) but rather big hits. They rank T-5th in home runs, and do well in all 2-out or runners-on categories. Put simply, the Orioles have ridden their luck with the bat in hand. The pitching has been effective if not dominant - the rotation has chopped and changed frequently, but the bullpen has been the real strength for the Orioles this year. In close/late games, the ERA of 2.15 is best in the Majors, and Jim Johnson/Pedro Strop have been a dominant 1/2 punch at the business end of games.
The verdict: As great as it has been to see the Orioles de-throne the Yankees, at least for a moment, one has to expect that regression will take place. They've put themselves in the best position possible to grab a post-season berth, and the new wildcard system may benefit them hugely. Their fate is likely to hinge on the next week. They play the Yankees and Rays in back-to-back series followed by a tough trip to Oakland. Their last 10 games however, are against the Red Sox and Blue Jays - two teams who have fallen out of contention in the East. Should the Orioles make the play-offs, it will be tough for them to compete without a reliable ace, but the toughness and depth of the team will make them a hard team to beat. One of the best stories of 2012, the Orioles will be hoping that their fairytale season isn't about to hit midnight.
6. The New York Yankees - 76-59
The story so far: What would October baseball be without the Yankees? Despite being plagued by injuries all season long, the Yanks just haven't gone away, and up until now have set the pace in the AL East. CC Sabathia, Alex Rodriguez, Brett Gardner, Mariano Rivera, Mark Teixeira, Michael Pineda, Andy Pettite and now Curtis Granderson have all spent time off the field, most of them extended stretches. Most teams' post-season hopes would have been dead and buried long ago with an injury list that comprehensive, but the Yankees are no ordinary team. Despite frequently lacklustre starting pitching, despite offensive woes and despite an ever-increasing injury list, the Yanks once again find themselves in the heat of the playoff race. Hate em or love em, you have to respect em.
The verdict: The most decorated team in baseball aren't the type to be content with a play-off appearance. Once they get there, they'll want the whole thing, and the heart and resolve of this team suggests they have the winning mentality they need. However, eventually injuries will catch up to you. Behind the unusually fragile CC Sabathia, the Yankees pitching staff is extremely weak. In a 7 game series they could find themselves struggling to keep pace with a high-powered offense. On the plus side, they boast one of the strongest line-ups in baseball. Granderson, Rodriguez, Cano, Teixeira, heck even Derek Jeter are capable of impacting a game at any time, and keeping a line-up like that quiet is easier said than done. First the Yankees need to make the playoffs however, and a kind last 7 games against the Twins and Blue Jays might be what is needed to get them there.
7. Oakland Athletics - 76-59
The story so far: We could quite easily play the 'hands-up' game here again. Completely gutting your rotation and bullpen and getting rid of your most productive hitter doesn't usually result in post-season runs, but then Billy Beane never did things the easy way. Having lost or traded away Gio Gonzalez, Trevor Cahill, Josh Outman, Andrew Bailey, and Josh Willingham, the A's were once again starting from scratch. Their best starter, Brett Anderson, was also recovering from Tommy John surgery and wasn't expected back until late this season. Instead, they took a punt on back-up Red Sox outfielder Josh Reddick and Cuban youtube sensation Yoenis Cespedes. Astonishingly, it worked. Jarrod Parker and Tommy Milone have been outstanding in their rookie season, Brett Anderson has slotted back into the rotation seamlessly and Josh Reddick and Yoenis Cespedes have been a revelation in the 3/4 holes.
The verdict: By far the best feel-good story in the Majors this season, the Athletics have overcome salary issues and a fire-sale of most of their team to put together a record better than the Angels and on a par with the Yankees. An astonishing 13 walk-off wins have contributed to their record, and for the neutrals, seeing the Athletics do so well is the perfect hollywood story. The A's still face a tough battle to reach the post-season, with the Rangers running away with the AL West, their only hope is to get in through one of the two wildcard spots. It would be a fair reward for what has been an incredible season.
8. Atlanta Braves - 76-60
The story so far: Another team that has rather flown under the radar, the Braves have been solid if unspectacular in compiling their 76-60 record, overshadowed rather by the unexpected success of the Nationals. The pitching has been solid, none more so that in recent weeks when the addition of Kris Medlen to the rotation paid off rather as he has strung together an incredible 36.1 innings without giving up an earned run. The hitting has also continued to churn along productively, as Jason Heyward begins to show off the raw talent he displayed in his rookie season and Freddie Freeman continues his steep upward ascent. The Braves also have a fairytale story on their side, as it is the final season of future hall-of-famer Chipper Jones's career. The talismanic third baseman has continued to be a clubhouse leader as well as a potent bat, and a post-season appearance is the least that he deserves in his swansong year.
The verdict: In many ways, the Braves are a 'boring' team. They're not made up of MVP/Cy Young candidates, but rather hard-working players like Michael Bourn, Martin Prado and Tim Hudson who do their job on a consistent basis. For many reasons, this is why the Braves could be a team to watch out for. They were deeply wounded by the terrible September they endured last season which resulted in them falling out of the post-season, and if they make it to October, they could easily stir up a surprise or two whilst they're there.
9. The Tampa Bay Rays - 75-61
The story so far: Any good feeling that had carried over from the end of last year's regular season to the beginning of this year's regular season evaporated quickly in Tampa Bay, as star slugger Evan Longoria went down injured early. Since then, the offense has failed mightily, with new signing Carlos Pena struggling at the plate and the bats even quieted to the extent of a perfect game. However, the pitching has been a bright point. Not as dominant as some billed them to be, but David Price has been superb, and James Shields/Jeremy Hellickson/Matt Moore all offer excellent stuff on a less consistent basis. Now that Evan Longoria is back the bats have started to pick up again, and the Rays are starting to sniff a repeat of last year as they try and spoil the Orioles party.
The verdict: If they reach the post-season, they're going to be a tough team to put away (as Texas found out last year). Their starting rotation is deep, the team ERA leads the major league and hitters like Longoria, Zobrist, BJ Upton and Matt Joyce are not to be under-estimated. However, they sit third in their division, and will need a strong September run in order to force themselves into the playoff picture. If anyone can do it then it is the Rays though.
10. The St Louis Cardinals - 74-62
The story so far: After last year's dream play-off run was sparked by a resurgent September, the Cardinals appear to be trying to pull off the same trick again, as they find themselves well out of the NL Central race and only just clinging on to the second wildcard spot. Last year's hero Chris Carpenter is shelved for the season, and so the ace of the rotation is now Adam Wainwright. Wainwright has been solid for the Cards, if not yet back to his sparkling best, but he is ably supported by the standout Kyle Lohse, Jaime Garcia and rookie Joe Kelly. Yadier Molina has had a career year on offense, and regular contributors Matt Holliday and Carlos Beltran have continued to make the Cards a line-up to fear. However, they have spent the whole season playing catch-up, thanks largely to weak pitching, and now find themselves in a scrap for a wildcard spot.
The verdict: Of the teams vying for the wildcard spots, the Cardinals are the team that look best placed to take one. However, with the streaking Dodgers breathing down their neck, one slip-up will cost the defending champions. The pivotal series will be a four game set between the Cards and Dodgers next weekend, and they face a tough final assignment against the Nats. Should the Cards reach the post-season, they will feel as though they can start afresh, and no team has the same kind of experience as the Cardinals after last season. However, the off-season loss of Albert Pujols might prove to be the decisive factor.
11. The Chicago White Sox - 73-62
The story so far: An ageing line-up, a rotation lacking an ace and a tough division meant that everything was stacked up against the White Sox entering this season. Resurgent hitting from Paul Konerko, Adam Dunn and Alex Rios combined with elite pitching from Chris Sale combined with the weak performances of the Tigers have stuck the White Sox atop the AL Central and in control of their own destiny. The hitting has been the main reason for the White Sox success, with Konerko, Dunn and Rios combining with De Aza and Ramirez to form a strong line-up. Chris Sale has turned into an ace from nowhere, and he, Peavy, Floyd and more recently Liriano form a strong rotation. At the back-end of games, Addison Reed has been highly impressive, and the trade for Brett Myers has bolstered their options for the 8th inning.
The verdict: All season it has only seemed to be a matter of time until the Tigers took over the AL Central lead, and after a series sweep last weekend they did indeed move into a tie for the lead. However, they have once again stuttered since then, and with the White Sox continuing to churn out the wins they are giving themselves every chance to take a post-season spot. A lot will depend on the hitting of Paul Konerko who is the key slugger in the line-up if they want to go deep in the post-season, although the pitching of Chris Sale has suggested that he can earn a win any time he steps on the mound.
12. The Los Angeles Angels - 73-63
The story so far: After splashing the cash in the off-season, acquiring Albert Pujols through free agency, the Angels expected to challenge the Rangers for the division title. However, despite one of the finest rookie seasons in MLB history from Mike Trout, their post-season berth is now in doubt. Jered Weaver has continued to pitch like an ace, with a 16-4 record and 2.86 ERA. However, Dan Haren has struggled so far this year, limping to a 9-10 record with a 4.58 ERA. C.J. Wilson has also struggled a little in his move from Texas, although his 11-9 record and 3.85 ERA are not bad for a no.3 starter. Ervin Santana has struggled mightily with his consistency, although he has recently begun to pitch more confidently and deadline acquisition Zack Greinke has put a sluggish start to his Angels career behind him. With the bat, Trout and Trumbo have been an explosive combination for most of the year, and with Albert Pujols entering his stride the team could start lighting up the sky. However, Kendrys Morales has for the most part struggled, and players like Erick Aybar and Peter Bourjos have not lived up to expectations
The verdict: Despite all these issues, the Angels are still just 3.5 games out of the wildcard hunt. A schedule including 5 games against the A's, 3 against the Tigers, 3 against the White Sox and 6 against the Tigers will make sure they are tested, but if they want to make the post-season they will need to win 2 of 3 from here out. The players in their lineup have the star quality necessary to go along way once they get to the playoffs, but getting there has so far proved to be a tougher challenge than expected.
13. The Detroit Tigers
The story so far: It's a mystery to many how Detroit still find themselves out of the playoffs this season. Verlander has pitched phenomenally, Scherzer has made the step up to the elite tier of pitchers often outdueling hid MVP team-mate, much-heralded 3-4 punch Cabrera and Fielder have both performed well - so where has it all gone wrong? The truth is that other than Verlander and Scherzer, the Tigers rotation has really struggled. No other pitchers have compiled winning records, as Fister and Porcello have struggled with inconsistency and the 5th starter's spot changing all the time. Detroit have also had their struggles with runners in scoring position, as pitchers have learnt that if they can restrict the damage of Cabrera and Fielder, there aren't many other potent bats in the line-up - they may be missing Victor Martinez more than they expected to.
The verdict: Despite their woes so far this season, I still fully expect to see the Tigers in the post-season, and I still fully expect them to go a long way when they get there. The key 4 game set comes next week against the White Sox, and they will need to repeat the sweep they undertook last weekend. Their last 10 games come up against the Twins and the Royals, and it is vital that they win at least 7 or 8 of those if they want to win their division. Verlander and Scherzer will prove a lethal combo in the playoffs however, and the bats are heating up at the right time. Look out!
14. The Los Angeles Dodgers - 73-64
The story so far: Like their cross-town rivals, the Dodgers splashed the cash in a 'now or never' bid to win a World Series. So far, the plan hasn't worked exactly as intended, as they are 4.5 games out of the division and 1.5 games out of the wildcard race. The acquisitions of Adrian Gonzalez, Hanley Ramirez and Shane Victorino have bolstered the line-up significantly, but in the pitching-heavy NL West, the Dodgers lack starters behind Clayton Kershaw and Chris Capuano, as Chad Billingsley, Aaron Harang and now Josh Beckett have all fought inconsistency. In the pen, the Dodgers have lost shutdown closer Kenley Jansen when they need him most, although Belisario and League have filled the void capably so far.
The verdict: When you look at the squad, you have to expect that they will comeback in September and find a way into the playoffs. However, there simply aren't any easy spots going in the NL at the moment. Atlanta and St Louis set the wildcard pace at the moment, and if one slips up then the Pirates could always jump in rather than the Dodgers. They face a really tough schedule over the next two weeks, as they will have to face the Giants, D-Backs, Cardinals, Nationals and Reds in succession. However, the season finishes with two more comfortable series against the Padres and Rockies. By the time they get there, however, the Dodgers may need to sweep them in order to clinch a post-season spot.
15. The Pittsburgh Pirates - 71-64
The story so far: Another surprise team in the running, the Pirates are only one year removed from having the worst record in baseball. Behind MVP candidate Andrew McCutchen, the offense has improved drastically, and with A.J. Burnett turning it around after his move from the Bronx, they have been able to win games on a consistent basis. James McDonald was superb for the first half of the season, and though he has cooled down recently, his season line is still highly impressive (12-7, 3.90 ERA).
The verdict: Although they currently sit furthest out of the wildcard race, their schedule is by far the cosiest, as they have 6 games against the Astros, 6 games against the Cubs and 3 games against the Mets. If they can get on a roll they could still play a part in October baseball, although the weaknesses in their line-ups and lack of a legitimate ace makes me think that the Pirates aren't genuine contenders yet.
If I had to pick now, I would go with:
AL East winner: Yankees
AL Central winner: Tigers
AL West winner: Rangers
AL Wildcard 1: Rays
AL Wildcard 2: Athletics
NL East winner: Nationals
NL Central winner: Reds
NL West winner: Giants
NL Wildcard 1: Braves
NL Wildcard 2: Cardinals
So there you have it. I see both big-spenders from Los Angeles missing out, with the Tigers pipping the White Sox, and the Rays and Athletics holding off the Orioles on the last day of the season.
In terms of the World Series, I see the Rangers taking on the Giants in a 2010 replay, but this time the Rangers exact their revenge to make it 3rd time lucky. Hard to discount the Tigers though. Let's see how wrong I am!
Saturday 1 September 2012
Why Buster Posey is the MVP
When Melky Cabrera was banned for 50 games after testing positive for high levels of testosterone, the entire baseball world rallied around Andrew McCutchen who became the only player with a chance to reel in Melky Cabrera's batting average lead. That a title so prestigious and meaningful could go to a convicted doper is a fatal flaw in itself, but fans and players had no option but to hope that 'Cutch' could keep up his hot-hitting ways. Cabrera's .346 average is astronomic and even though McCutchen has hit at an impressive clip of .312 since the all-star break, he has found his average falling. However, a dark horse has entered the race since the break, and as you've probably guessed from the title of the post, it is San Francisco catching sensation Buster Posey who has found himself thrown not only into the Batting Title race but also the MVP race with McCutchen. Since the all-star break, Posey has smacked the leather off the ball, hitting at a .400 clip and filling the offensive void left by none other than Melky Cabrera.
There are many reasons to think that Posey will not get close to Cabrera and McCutchen. Primarily because Posey's .329 average is still a far cry from the .346 of Cabrera but also because a .400 average is simply unsustainable; at some stage Posey will surely slow down. Even if he is unable to claim the batting title, I believe that the MVP award would not go amiss. Posey's home run totals trail those of McCutchen at the moment, although his RBI totals match him. Despite his incredible raw athleticism, McCutchen is also a bit of a liability in the field - his -6 UZR makes him technically a below-average defensive center-fielder. Although Posey has thrown out just 25% of would-be base-stealers, his total of 28 ranks second in the league. Posey also must be given credit for handling one of the finest rotations in baseball - Cain, Bumgarner and Vogelsong have all been elite this season, and Posey also caught Cain's perfect game. In terms of game-calling and defensive prowess, there are few catchers with the same skill-set as Posey, and when you add this to elite offensive numbers at a position that usually provides lacklustre hitting ability you have yourself (in my opinion) the best player in the league.
Not only this, but Posey is just 25. His best years may well be ahead of him. Playing at AT&T Park does remove plenty of his power potential, but Posey could easily be a lock for a .300 average, 30 home runs and 100 RBI every season for the next 5 years. He earned himself a World Series ring in his very first season, and at the rate he is hitting, he may find he has a couple more in 10 years time.
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