Quick Predictions

With proper Opening Day just a matter of hours away, I thought I'd quickly type up my predictions for team records, post-season picture and award winners. Last year I got exactly one of my end of season records correct (for the LA Dodgers), although I was one game away on a few teams and only really look stupid on my predictions for the Blue Jays, Angels and Giants. Let's see if I can do a bit better this season!

AL EAST
Team	Record
Boston Red Sox	93-69
Tampa Bay Rays	92-70
New York Yankees	84-78
Toronto Blue Jays	79-83
Baltimore Orioles	77-85

The loss of Ellsbury will hurt the Red Sox, but I think they have more than enough to challenge for the East title once again. Honestly, this is the hardest decision to predict, because any of the five teams could win 90 games if they put it together, so I've hedged my bets a bit. The Rays never seem to do as well as expected, and the Yankees seem to win despite their old age, so it wouldn't surprise me if they win 90 instead. I would be surprised if any of these teams get close to 100 wins.

AL CENTRAL
Team	Record
Detroit Tigers	97-65
Kansas City Royals	88-74
Cleveland Indians	86-76
Chicago White Sox	76-86
Minnesota Twins	67-95

The Tigers are the team to beat after swapping Fielder for Kinsler and making room for top prospect Nick Castellanos at the hot corner. I think Porcello is in for a breakout season, and wouldn't be surprised if Verlander gets back to Cy form. The Royals are a trendy sleeper pick, and whilst I see room for improvement, I don't think that rotation is strong enough to win the Central yet. I want the Indians to do well, but I just don't see how they can do it unless the line-up clicks. The White Sox and Twins will have fun battling for last place.

AL WEST
Team	Record
Oakland Athletics	95-67
Los Angeles Angels	90-72
Texas Rangers	83-81
Seattle Mariners	77-85
Houston Astros	61-101

I'm all-in on the Athletics this year, quite how they do it I'm not sure, but they put themselves in the hunt every season. I think the Rangers are going to be disappointing this year, just don't like their rotation at all beyond Cy favourite Yu Darvish, and he is struggling with injury to start the season. The Angels have to improve, they just have to, and the Mariners aren't going to be as bad as people think. Can the Astros avoid 100 losses?

NL EAST
Team	Record
Washington Nationals	97-65
Atlanta Braves	89-73
New York Mets	81-81
Miami Marlins	73-89
Philadelphia Phillies	70-92

I'm back on the Nationals band-wagon. Harper is primed for a huge season, and if they can stay healthy few teams can match Washington's all-round strength. The Braves rotation is a mess, but they still have a star-studded line-up and can beat up on the easy competition in this division. The Mets are one season away from being competitive, and might turn a few heads with a hot start. The Marlins and Phillies are only worth watching when Jose Fernandez and Cliff Lee are on the mound respectively.

NL CENTRAL
Team	Record
St. Louis Cardinals	99-63
Cincinatti Reds	92-70
Pittsburgh Pirates	86-76
Milwaukee Brewers	78-84
Chicago Cubs	66-96

The Cardinals just have so much depth, and so many good young arms that they're the best bet for 100 wins in the Majors this season. An incredible powerhouse of a franchise. The Reds lost Choo, but still have an underrated rotation and a strong enough line-up that they'll be there or thereabouts come September. Plus no more Dusty! Last season wasn't a complete fluke for the Pirates, but I don't see them winning 94 again. The Brewers and Cubs will both be bad, but at least the future is bright for Cubs fans - I'm really excited to see Baez hit the Majors.

NL WEST
Team	Record
Los Angeles Dodgers	96-66
Arizona Diamondbacks	85-77
San Francisco Giants	80-82
San Diego Padres	75-87
Colorado Rockies	68-94

Probably the weakest division in baseball, and if they can avoid another sluggish start, the Dodgers should coast to the title. The D-Backs always look like a team that should crack .500, but you don't expect much more, maybe Archie Bradley's promotion can push them over the edge. The Giants just aren't very good any more, but the Padres and Rockies are just worse.

ALCS: Tigers over Rays in 6

NLCS: Cardinals over Nationals in 7

WORLD SERIES: Cardinals over Tigers in 5

Awards

AL MVP: Mike Trout

NL MVP: Andrew McCutchen

AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander

NL Cy Young: Jose Fernandez

AL ROTY: Xander Bogaerts

NL ROTY: Travis D'Arnaud

Wacky prediction: George Springer comes up on June 1st, goes 20/20 the rest of the season and then gets wildly overhyped heading into 2015 (see Puig, Yasiel)

Dead cert: It's going to be another mental 162 game season. Enjoy it!

10 Bold Predictions for the 2014 Season

It's that time of the year again! Spring training is well under way, opening day is tantalisingly close, and it wouldn't feel like baseball without putting my wacky predictions out there for the upcoming season. I haven't been particularly accurate with my guesses over the last couple of seasons but I guess that's why they call them bold. These aren't supposed to be precise estimates for the upcoming season, but should at least give you an idea of which teams/players I like, and which I do not.

1. The Kansas City Royals win the AL Central

Maybe this isn't such a bold call - after all, they were in touching distance of the Tigers into September last season. But I think most people expect the Tigers to stroll to another title, and that Cleveland will be their main challenge. I like Kansas City's line-up a lot. Aoki is a prototypical lead-off hitter who'll be a sparkplug atop the line-up. I think Eric Hosmer is primed for a monster season, Alex Gordon will have another big year and Mike Moustakas will finally take a step forward. Billy Butler and Sal Perez are both statistical monsters too. There's a lot to like in this line-up. Pitching wise, James Shields is going to have a big load on his shoulders with the departure of Ervin Santana, but Vargas, Guthrie and Chen should at least be reliable innings eaters, and I think top prospects Yordano Ventura and Kyle Zimmer will have big impacts in the second half.

2. The Los Angeles Dodgers miss the playoffs

The main reason this prediction is bold is because the NL West has suddenly become the weakest division in baseball. The Dodgers were the only team to finish above .500 last season, and their unbelievable second half dominance leads most people to believe they'll repeat as NL West champs. I'm not so sure. The line-up is packed with promise, led by talented youngster Yasiel Puig, but also has a lot of question marks. Puig and Ramirez are due for some regression, and the outfield has platoon and injury concerns, not least with Matt Kemp who is still trying to get back from an ankle issue. Kershaw and Greinke will anchor a strong rotation, but Ryu might get hit around now line-ups are familiar with his stuff and Haren and Maholm have question marks over their production. This team could easily win 100 games, but you've got to be bold.

3. Giancarlo Stanton hits 50 home runs

Yeah, I'm doing that again. Since his arrival in the Majors several years ago I have been a huge believer in Giancarlo Stanton's ability, and this year is no different. He took something of a step back last season, hitting just .249 with 24 homers in an injury-riddled season. He has only played 150 games once in a season, and those injury problems will be a worry again for the Marlins this season. But when healthy he has prodigious power as he showed in 2012, and he'll be keen to prove he can lead this young team. I'm just hoping he can stay on the field. And if you've ever seen a more majestic home run than this you can count yourself lucky:

4. Jose Fernandez wins the Cy Young award

And the Marlins win the World Series! Ok, maybe this one is a bit of a stretch, but in case you didn't notice it, Fernandez was really good last year. No, not good for a 20 year old rookie, but good for any pitcher in any league. He had a 2.19 ERA and minuscule 0.98 WHIP on his way to more than a strikeout per inning and a well deserved rookie of the year title. It's hard to imagine him bettering those stats, and he only earned third place in Cy Young voting. But what if he gets better? For a start he'll probably pitch a few more innings, maybe bump up from 172 innings to around 190 if he can stay healthy. This should allow him to rack up more strikeouts and maybe more wins as he goes deeper into games. Furthermore, Fernandez was the best pitcher in baseball in the second half of 2013, with a ridiculous 1.32 ERA. He's said he wants to challenge an ERA of 1.95 this season, and you know what, I think the talented 21 year old could.

5. Yordano Ventura and Danny Salazar are the best pitchers in the AL Central

The AL Central is stacked with quality arms, from Detroit's incredible front three to the perennially underrated Chris Sale. So why do I think that two untried youngsters will dominate this division? Danny Salazar put up some eye-popping numbers in his small big league stint last season, with a 3.12 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and better than a strikeout per inning. He also did this to Miguel Cabrera:

Maybe the scariest thing, is that some metrics see room for improvement. Stolen from Jared Cross's ESPN article is this incredible stat: 'According to xxFIP, Salazar's 2013 season was the best performance by any starting pitcher in the PITCHf/x era (since 2007, that is) who faced at least 200 batters. In short, based on the most granular numbers available, as well as his repertoire, we can't rule out the possibility that Salazar is the best pitcher in baseball right now. He might be about to show it.'

As for Yordano Ventura, I'm going off nothing but hope and naivety. There's no question that Ventura has talent. The slight of frame fireballer can dial his fastball up and beyond 100mph and has one of the filthiest breaking balls you're likely to see. His command and third pitch needs work, but the first few times he faces teams he could blow right through them. If KC want to compete this season, they're going to need Ventura and Zimmer to be impact arms as soon as they hit the Majors.

6. Cliff Lee strikes out 100 hitters looking and walks less than 25

And remains criminally underrated. Lee's name never comes up under discussions of the Majors best pitcher, in fact he's barely been considered his team's best pitcher for several seasons. But what we're seeing in Cliff Lee is a pitcher who has perfected his craft. Lee's stuff is not dominating. On scouting measurements, none of his pitches would rate as plus. His fastball is pretty straight without much velocity, his breaking pitches are decent but not baffling and his change-up is nothing better than solid. Yet Lee continues to whiff hitters at ridiculous rates, and the clear reason is because his control is about four light years ahead of any other pitcher in the game. He struck out 220 hitters last season, almost exactly one per inning, including an incredible 93 called strikeouts. He walked 32. He compiled 7.3 WAR, an astonishing number for a pitcher who, with all due respect, is fairly unexciting. Philly fans might not have a lot to look forward to, but Cliff Lee should be one of them.

7. Mike Trout puts up 13 WAR

Didn't we all think he would regress last season? Instead as every other Angel struggled, Trout was once again the best all-round player in baseball, raising his game to a different level, drawing an AL leading 110 walks. He looked at a lot of strike threes last season, which no doubt contributed to all the walks, but with him promising to be more aggressive early in the count, we could see an increase in counting stats. Trout's power is immense and his steals and defense should bounce back. He's slashing .414/.460/.828 this Spring. With 160 games under his belt, why couldn't he put up the best season in baseball history?

8. Jason Heyward finishes in the top 5 of MVP voting

In 2010, Heyward burst into baseball with a fantastic rookie season, slashing .277/.393/.456 and putting up 4.6 WAR. After a down season in 2011, he bounced back in 2012, but my most estimations 2013 was another disappointing year for the talented right fielder. The good thing is, all signs point to positive regression, as long as he can stay healthy. Heyward's line drive rate of 21.4% was a career high, and suggests that he was unlucky with the .281 batting average on balls in play. If that number jumps up closer to .300, or maybe even goes beyond to around .320, then we'll see an increase in his average from .254 to something more like .270, .280 or if he gets lucky, even .300. His strikeout rate is on its way down, and his walk rate has remained impressive, so he should get on base a lot, and the increase in at-bats from hitting lead-off will allow him to pad his home run and stolen base numbers. Heyward is still just 24 years old, and has shown underrated signs of improvement in recent seasons. This is the year he puts it all together.

9. But counterpart Bryce Harper takes the MVP award

21. That is how old Bryce Harper will be for the entirety of the 2014 season. Immeasurably talented, the only thing that has held Harper back is his injury history, after an ugly collision with the wall hampered his playing time last season. When he's on the field, he's an absolute force, and I think this year he's able to stay healthy and put up the kind of video game numbers scouts have always predicted from him. His walk and strikeout rates are elite, so he should be able to sustain an average at least around .275, and he has extraordinary raw power, so in 150 games he should be able to hit 30 if not challenge 40 home runs. The Nats have shown they are happy to let him steal, so 20 swiped bags shouldn't be out of the question, and his defense in right field has never been an issue. If Harper can stay healthy, look out.

10. Edwin Encarnacion has a better season than Miguel Cabrera

So to put it another way, I see E5 competing for the AL MVP title. I don't really know how, but Encarnacion's massive 2013 season was overlooked by most people. He garnered just a couple of 8th/9th placed votes in MVP voting, and isn't being considered in the same league as Cabrera. But Encarnacion is one of the best all-round hitters in the Majors. He put together a .272/.370/.534 triple-slash last season with 36 home runs. Oh yeah, and he walked 82 times and struck out just 62(!!!) times. This BB:K rate is simply unparalleled, and the fact it's done by a guy with incredible power is simply unfathomable. His BABIP was actually pretty low last season, and whilst he'll never be a high BABIP guy, why couldn't he hit .290, challenge a .400 OBP and hit something like 40 homers again. That's Miggy-esque. Oh, and any excuse to pull this GIF out:

So, there you have it. I'm not expecting to get these predictions bang on, but they should give you some kind of idea of who I like and who I don't this season. If I can get something like 3 or 4 right then I'll consider it pretty successful!