2012 Season
The Baltimore Orioles had a fairytale season in 2012, as they and the Athletics surprised the entire American League with their strength. Baltimore's success owed much to it's record in one-run games, where it's 29-9 record (.763 win percentage) was the best since 1883. A large slice of this record was due to luck, but it's important to note that the bullpen was lights out last season, with Pedro Strop owning a 2.4 WAR in 66 innings of work and Jim Johnson saving 51 games with his extreme ground ball stuff. Adam Jones' league-leading seven home runs in late/close situations didn't hurt either, as the Orioles ended up 93-69 in the AL East, good enough for a wildcard spot. In the play-offs, they beat Texas in the wildcard game before suffering a tough loss in game 5 of the ALDS to the Yankees. Heading into the season, few had the Orioles destined for any better than 4th in the division, but in the end they fell just short of an ALCS appearance.
Off-Season Moves
IN: Trayvon Robinson, Jair Jurrjens, Alexi Casilla
OUT: Robert Andino, Mark Reynolds, Joe Saunders, Endy Chavez
Overview: After putting in such an unexpected run at the AL East crown in 2011, I expected the Orioles to at least make some noise in free agency, but they were disappointingly quiet. None of the acquisitions will serve as anything more than back-ups or injury fill-ins, with Alexi Casilla effectively replacing Andino as the infield utility man. Mark Reynolds had been a power bat for some time, but his poor contact ability and defense means his departure isn't terrible. Joe Saunders had been a reliable veteran who ate innings for the O's, but with top pitching prospects coming through his exit made sense. There are still holes in this team however, especially in the outfield, and the clever dealing I expected never happened. Overall grade: 2/10.
| Projected Opening Day Line-up | ||
|---|---|---|
| Position | Player | Projected stat line (OBP/SLG/WAR) |
| 2B | Brian Roberts | .345/.397/0.2 |
| LF | Nick Markakis | .369/.457/2.0 |
| CF | Adam Jones | .329/.478/3.6 |
| C | Matt Wieters | .341/.448/4.5 |
| 1B | Chris Davis | .340/.532/0.9 |
| SS | J.J. Hardy | .306/.422/3.5 |
| RF | Nate McLouth | .326/.400/1.2 |
| DH | Nolan Reimold | .340/.456/1.0 |
| 3B | Manny Machado | .315/.419/2.7 |
| Projected rotation | ||
|---|---|---|
| Starter | Player | Projected stat line (IP/ERA/WAR) |
| 1 | Jason Hammel | 161/4.30/2.5 |
| 2 | Wei-Yin Chen | 193/3.92/1.3 |
| 3 | Miguel Gonzalez | 174/3.67/0.3 |
| 4 | Jake Arrieta | 144/5.16/0.5 |
| 5 | Chris Tillman | 188/4.31/1.3 |
Position Players
This side's best hitter is standout center fielder Adam Jones, who had the best year of his career in 2012. He put up a .287/.334/.505 triple-slash with 32 round-trippers and 16 steals whilst playing outstanding center field defense. Some regression may be due, but the power-speed combination is real, and if he can cut down on the strikeouts the average should remain a strength. Catcher Matt Wieters entered the Majors with as much fanfare as any prospect in baseball, but he's yet to really hit his stride. Last seasons .249/.329/.435 stat line with 23 homers was solid, especially given his elite defense, but if he wants to meet those lofty expectations, he'll need to start making better contact. Brian Roberts played just 17 games in 2012, and was also injured in '11 and '10, so staying healthy will be an absolute priority. If he can get back to his pre-2010 form, with an OBP in the mid .350's and the speed to steal 20-30 bases he'll be a massive boost for this offense.
Nick Markakis put up a fine .298/.363/.471 triple-slash in 2012, but was only able to play 104 games, as a hamate bone problem and fractured thumb put him on the disabled list for the first time in his career. He's an extremely able hitter who hits for average, draws walks and has 15 home run power to go with it. If he can stay healthy all season, this Orioles line-up gets an instant boost. Chris Davis had his best season yet in 2012, playing a career high 139 games and putting up a .270/.326/.501 triple-slash with 33 homers. He still strikes out far too much to be a high average hitter, but with the departure of Mark Reynolds he will have a full time job and a chance to prove the power is legitimate. J.J. Hardy won his first gold glove in 2012, but actually had a poor season at the plate, with just a .238 average and .282 OBP. The 22 home runs were nice, but Hardy will need to bump up that average before he can become an elite shortstop. Nolan Reimold has also struggled with injuries and inconsistencies over the past few seasons, playing just 16 games in 2012, but he has the potential to hit for an average near .300 with some pop. This line-up depends a lot on the production of Adam Jones and Matt Wieters, and whilst it has a lot of upside if everyone stays healthy, that has been a real problem for the Orioles in recent years. Overall grade: 6/10.
Pitching
Jason Hammel had a breakout season in 2012 with the Orioles, posting a 3.43 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, although he made just 20 starts as knee surgery in July slowed him down. Wei-Yin Chen was also a pleasant surprise in his first year in an Orioles uniform, as he owned a 4.02 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 192 innings, becoming somewhat of a workhorse in the rotation. The strikeout rate is healthy, and if he can cut down on the home runs he may see that ERA dip into the mid-3's. Miguel Gonzalez started 15 games last season for the Orioles, and owned an impressive 3.25 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, although some regression is likely in order as hitters begin to adapt to his style and sequence. Jake Arrieta struggled in 2012, with a 6.20 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 114 innings. He does have decent strikeout stuff, but he'll need to reduce the hit rate or he'll find himself thrown out of the rotation. The 5th spot will go to Chris Tillman who had a big season in 2012, with a 2.93 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 85 innings. Tillman had always promised a breakout season, but it finally came to fruition last season and he'll look to continue that this year, with a possible uptick in strikeouts on the horizon.
Last season, the Orioles bullpen was one of the best in the Majors, with 29 year old Jim Johnson leading the way. Unlike most closers, Johnson does not have great strikeout stuff, but he produces a ton of groundballs and gave up just three homers in 68 innings. Repeating the 51 save stat may be tough, but he should continue to be an effective end-game option. Pedro Strop also had a great season as Johnson's main set-up man, with a 2.44 ERA and 1.34 WHIP as part of a 2 win season. He was particularly effective with his knockout curveball that limited opponents to a .148 average. Darren O'Day also had a great first season in Baltimore, as his heavy sinker paved the way for a 2.28 ERA and 0.94 WHIP as he boasted a 7-1 record out of the bullpen. Luis Ayala, Troy Patton and Brian Matusz are likely to complete a formidable bullpen that will try to repeat last years heroics. Overall, the pitching rotation lacks a legitimate ace, although if Chris Tillman can continue his fine form he may be the stud innings-eater the Orioles have long been searching for. As long as the rotation can keep the team in games, the bullpen should be able to complete the job, as a good assortment of arms will try to build off last year's success. Overall grade: 6/10.
Prospects
The two biggest prospects in this Orioles system are a pair of dominant right-handed starters. The further developed of this pair is Dylan Bundy, who tore apart the minors last year despite being told not to use his best pitch whilst he works on his off-speed stuff. His fastball command and velocity are excellent, and his cutter is one of the best pitches in the minors. He's still a bit raw, but if he can polish off the breaking pitches and change-ups in the early part of this season he'll find his way into the rotation before long. Like Bundy, Kevin Gausman went with the fourth overall pick (but in 2012) and he was mighty impressive in his short time in the Minors last season. He also dominated hitters in Spring Training this year, with an excellent fastball, hard-breaking slider and true out-pitch change-up that allows him to put lefties away with ease. He still needs a fair amount of developing, but the idea of him and Bundy leading the big league rotation in 2014 and beyond is a scary one for other AL East teams. Third-base prospect Jonathan Schoop has also turned some heads, in the minors and in the WBC, and he projects to make a formidable left-side of the infield with Machado. Other than those three prospects, the Orioles are lacking real depth, but with the way they have drafted in recent years this could be a farm system that shoots up the rankings soon. Overall grade: 6/10.
Overview
There's no doubt about it, the Orioles needed a large slice of luck to win 93 games last season. But to dismiss them as a fluke or a one-year wonder would be insulting a team that has quietly improved recently. The line-up has the potential to battle it out with most others in the American League, and whilst the rotation is far from dominant, there are some high-upside arms coming through the system that could make this team highly competitive sooner rather than later. With the AL East so competitive this season, I don't think they'll repeat the 2012 heroics. But I don't think they'll embarrass themselves either.
Prediction: 77-85
Gif to Watch
Tied game, top of the ninth inning. Two outs and a man at second, with one of the most dangerous AL hitters at the plate in the form of Evan Longoria. He hits a slow chopper down the third base line, and 20 year old Manny Machado charges and scoops it up bare-handed. Even if he makes an accurate, off-balance throw, Longoria might be safe, and if he misses the bag, Rich Thompson will come home to score. So what he does is...
Pitching
Jason Hammel had a breakout season in 2012 with the Orioles, posting a 3.43 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, although he made just 20 starts as knee surgery in July slowed him down. Wei-Yin Chen was also a pleasant surprise in his first year in an Orioles uniform, as he owned a 4.02 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 192 innings, becoming somewhat of a workhorse in the rotation. The strikeout rate is healthy, and if he can cut down on the home runs he may see that ERA dip into the mid-3's. Miguel Gonzalez started 15 games last season for the Orioles, and owned an impressive 3.25 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, although some regression is likely in order as hitters begin to adapt to his style and sequence. Jake Arrieta struggled in 2012, with a 6.20 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 114 innings. He does have decent strikeout stuff, but he'll need to reduce the hit rate or he'll find himself thrown out of the rotation. The 5th spot will go to Chris Tillman who had a big season in 2012, with a 2.93 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 85 innings. Tillman had always promised a breakout season, but it finally came to fruition last season and he'll look to continue that this year, with a possible uptick in strikeouts on the horizon.
Last season, the Orioles bullpen was one of the best in the Majors, with 29 year old Jim Johnson leading the way. Unlike most closers, Johnson does not have great strikeout stuff, but he produces a ton of groundballs and gave up just three homers in 68 innings. Repeating the 51 save stat may be tough, but he should continue to be an effective end-game option. Pedro Strop also had a great season as Johnson's main set-up man, with a 2.44 ERA and 1.34 WHIP as part of a 2 win season. He was particularly effective with his knockout curveball that limited opponents to a .148 average. Darren O'Day also had a great first season in Baltimore, as his heavy sinker paved the way for a 2.28 ERA and 0.94 WHIP as he boasted a 7-1 record out of the bullpen. Luis Ayala, Troy Patton and Brian Matusz are likely to complete a formidable bullpen that will try to repeat last years heroics. Overall, the pitching rotation lacks a legitimate ace, although if Chris Tillman can continue his fine form he may be the stud innings-eater the Orioles have long been searching for. As long as the rotation can keep the team in games, the bullpen should be able to complete the job, as a good assortment of arms will try to build off last year's success. Overall grade: 6/10.
Prospects
The two biggest prospects in this Orioles system are a pair of dominant right-handed starters. The further developed of this pair is Dylan Bundy, who tore apart the minors last year despite being told not to use his best pitch whilst he works on his off-speed stuff. His fastball command and velocity are excellent, and his cutter is one of the best pitches in the minors. He's still a bit raw, but if he can polish off the breaking pitches and change-ups in the early part of this season he'll find his way into the rotation before long. Like Bundy, Kevin Gausman went with the fourth overall pick (but in 2012) and he was mighty impressive in his short time in the Minors last season. He also dominated hitters in Spring Training this year, with an excellent fastball, hard-breaking slider and true out-pitch change-up that allows him to put lefties away with ease. He still needs a fair amount of developing, but the idea of him and Bundy leading the big league rotation in 2014 and beyond is a scary one for other AL East teams. Third-base prospect Jonathan Schoop has also turned some heads, in the minors and in the WBC, and he projects to make a formidable left-side of the infield with Machado. Other than those three prospects, the Orioles are lacking real depth, but with the way they have drafted in recent years this could be a farm system that shoots up the rankings soon. Overall grade: 6/10.
Overview
There's no doubt about it, the Orioles needed a large slice of luck to win 93 games last season. But to dismiss them as a fluke or a one-year wonder would be insulting a team that has quietly improved recently. The line-up has the potential to battle it out with most others in the American League, and whilst the rotation is far from dominant, there are some high-upside arms coming through the system that could make this team highly competitive sooner rather than later. With the AL East so competitive this season, I don't think they'll repeat the 2012 heroics. But I don't think they'll embarrass themselves either.
Prediction: 77-85
Gif to Watch
Tied game, top of the ninth inning. Two outs and a man at second, with one of the most dangerous AL hitters at the plate in the form of Evan Longoria. He hits a slow chopper down the third base line, and 20 year old Manny Machado charges and scoops it up bare-handed. Even if he makes an accurate, off-balance throw, Longoria might be safe, and if he misses the bag, Rich Thompson will come home to score. So what he does is...
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