2012 Season
The Royals 2012 season promised much but was ultimately disappointed as they fell to a 72-90 record, that was only good for third in the division because of the weakness of the AL Central. Two months ultimately ruined the Royals season, as they went 13-34 in April and July. They lost 12 in a row at one stage early in the season, falling to a 3-14 record and were never able to truly recover. Eric Hosmer struggled with the bat in his sophomore campaign, whilst the rotation never really had any consistency. The star hitter for the Royals was DH Billy Butler who put up a .313/.373/.510 triple-slash with 29 homers whilst the young bullpen showed good promise, with Greg Holland filling the full-time closer role and young fireballer Kelvin Herrera providing another reliable option. Overall, however, it was a disappointing year, and the clear off-season report from the front office is that winning is now necessary.
Off-Season Moves
IN: James Shields, Wade Davis, Ervin Santana, George Kottaras
OUT: Wil Myers, Jeremy Jeffress, Jake Odorizzi, Joakim Soria
Overview: Royals front office was obviously told that the 'building for the future' plan was now over, and that it was time to start winning. Having spent several years meticulously and patiently building their farm system through trades and drafts, they traded one of their biggest prospects Wil Myers for James Shields and Wade Davis. Myers is a power-hitting outfielder who by all accounts is big league ready, but with the Royals struggling on the mound they traded him away for veteran Shields and workhorse Davis. Personally, I don't like the trade. I understand the desire to compete, but Myers had spent three years in the farm system and was ready to contribute now to the Royals line-up, and he could have easily become one of their best hitters. As it is, they've traded away a likely future all-star for an inconsistent 31 year old pitcher who has ace stuff. I would have been more patient. Santana bolsters the rotation too, although he'll need to prove it's his second half performances (3.58 and 3.68 ERA's in August and September) that are his real performances, not the ugly -1.5 WAR for the entire season. Overall grade: 3/10.
| Projected Opening Day Line-up | ||
|---|---|---|
| Position | Player | Projected stat line (OBP/SLG/WAR) |
| LF | Alex Gordon | .366/.457/3.7 |
| SS | Alcides Escobar | .314/.365/2.2 |
| DH | Billy Butler | .368/.490/2.9 |
| 3B | Mike Moustakas | .316/.455/3.0 |
| C | Salvador Perez | .329/.456/3.3 |
| 1B | Eric Hosmer | .342/.442/1.6 |
| RF | Jeff Francoeur | .314/.418/0.8 |
| CF | Lorenzo Cain | .332/.424/1.5 |
| 2B | Chris Getz | .327/.337/0.2 |
| Projected rotation | ||
|---|---|---|
| Starter | Player | Projected stat line (IP/ERA/WAR) |
| 1 | James Shields | 218/3.67/3.1 |
| 2 | Jeremy Guthrie | 197/4.20/0.8 |
| 3 | Ervin Santana | 205/4.04/0.3 |
| 4 | Wade Davis | 153/4.34/1.4 |
| 5 | Luis Mendoza | 193/4.62/0.5 |
Position Players
Aside from Billy Butler, the best hitter in this line-up is probably Alex Gordon. In the past couple of years, Gordon has quietly become one of the more consistent outfielders in baseball, with an average that challenges .300, enough walks to challenge a .375 OBP and around 60-70 extra-base hits. He also plays excellent defense out in left field, so if he can reduce the strikeouts, turn a few doubles into homers and keep that average close to .300 he'll be a stud this season. Alcides Escobar had a breakout season, hitting .293 and stealing 35 bases to go with his elite defense, although whether he can sustain that average without great plate discipline or power remains to be seen. Mike Moustakas struggled to get on base in 2012, striking out 124 times and posting just a .296 OBP. However, he was able to swat 20 homers and figures to be at the heart of the line-up against right handers.
Young catcher Salvador Perez has been a popular name on people's lips to start this season, as his excellent performances last year have begun to be recognised. He hit .301 with 11 homers in 76 games, thanks largely to a minuscule strikeout rate (he had as many home runs as strikeouts against left-handed pitchers last season) . Unlike other players with low strikeout rates, he makes hard contact however, consistently hitting line drives which fuels his high average. His work behind the plate is also excellent, as he threw out 15 of 40 stealers last year and led all catchers with five pickoffs. Hosmer had a disaster sophomore campaign but is just too good a young slugger to stay down for long, so I like him to bounce back this season (he's only 23!). Francoeur became a popular name to criticise in 2012, as he recorded a shocking -2.7 WAR whilst on a sizeable contract. He'll be a Royal again this season, and should at least improve back towards his 2011 offensive stats whilst retaining his cannon arm from right field. Lorenzo Cain promised a monster season in Spring Training last year, but once again struggled with injuries. If he can stay on the field, he's an impact player both at the plate and in the field. Overall, this is a line-up that has strengths, but a propensity to strike out. The young guys need to start taking big steps forward, or the lack of on-base specialists may begin to show. Overall grade: 5/10.
Pitching
This pitching staff hasn't had a true ace since mid-2011 when it traded Zack Greinke to the Brewers, but it got something like an ace when the Royals acquired James Shields in the off-season. Shields was poor in 2010 (5.18 ERA) but downright dominant in 2011 (2.82). His true value is somewhere in between, and the Royals will be happy if he can replicate his 2012 stat line, with 227 innings pitched, a 3.52 ERA and 223 K's. He pitches deep into games, and the Royals will be hoping he wins 15+ as their number one guy. Jeremy Guthrie was actually a lot better after being traded to the Royals from the Rockies, with a 3.16 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 14 starts. His ERA is probably going to be somewhere closer to 4, but he should be a solid innings eater. Wade Davis has moved between the rotation and the bullpen in recent seasons for Tampa Bay, but looks set to be the Royals fourth starter this year. His stuff isn't overpowering, but he can be a solid workhorse who won't hurt the team. Finishing off the rotation will be Luis Mendoza, who beat Bruce Chen to the fifth spot in Spring Training. Mendoza improved after the all-star break last season, but won't win many games on his own and needs to reduce his walk rate in order to become a reliable fifth starter.
After Jonathan Broxton's mid-season trade last year, Greg Holland took over the full time closer role and pitched well, saving 16 games with a 2.96 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. His strikeout rate is monstrous (91 K's in 67 innings) though he'll need to cut down on the walks before he can become a truly elite 9th inning option. Kelvin Herrera looks set to be his main set-up man, after posting a strong 2.35 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 84 innings last year. His average fastball speed was 98.6 miles per hour last season, and it is the fastball/change-up combination that has made him so deadly. The lefty specialist will be 5 foot 7 inch 23 year old Tim Collins, who spent most of his early career convincing scouts he could be an effective pitcher despite his small frame. He was excellent for the Royals in 2012, with a 3.36 ERA and 93 strikeouts in 69 innings and he'll look to continue that fine work this season. Aaron Crow and Bruce Chen look like other likely candidates to finish off this bullpen, one of the more underrated relief corps in the American League. Overall, the pitching staff is still the clear weakness on this team. Shields is a big upgrade, but all four other pitchers have issues, and getting to the 6th or 7th inning with the game on the line may be tough to do. If they are able to do that, however, they have the relievers to see the game through. Excitingly, all of these late inning guys are pretty young, so further growth could be expected. Overall grade: 3/10.
Prospects
The Royals have drafted and developed superbly over the last few seasons, which is the main reason why they still have a strong system despite graduating Hosmer, Moustakas, Perez, Holland and Herrera as well as trading Wil Myers and Mike Montgomery over the past couple of seasons. The stud prospect is right-hand pitcher Kyle Zimmer who has a plus fastball to go with an excellent curveball and above-average changeup. He's had some lofty comparisons made by scouts, and could be the ace the Royals have been seeking for years. Their other top prospect is toolsy outfielder Bubba Starling who's yet to really fulfil the potential he was given on draft day. He's a speedy runner who has excellent raw power and can man center field capably. However, he has struggled with strikeouts, although if he is able to adapt a little over the next couple of seasons, he could become a very productive slugger. For 2013, John Lamb may be a rotation option in the second half after recovering from 2011 Tommy John surgery and Yordano Ventura and Sam Selman may find their way into the bullpen at some stage. The top prospect, Wil Myers is no longer part of the system, and KC will look to fill that hole with a strong draft. Overall grade: 6/10.
Overview
The Royals didn't live up to some of the expectations given to them last season, and whilst I think the off-season moves has made the team worse in the long run, there is no denying that they should have a positive impact for 2013. If Shields can be a legitimate ace, and the rest of the rotation can piece together 700 innings with a sub-four ERA then this team could remain in contention up until September, but ultimately they are still a season or two away from truly competing.
Prediciction: 77-85
Gif to Watch
The GIF for the Royals in this preview is a mad game ending play against the Cardinals. The Royals kick the ball around the infield allowing Greene to scamper home for the game-tying run except that Moustakas throws an absolute strike from the dugout and Quintero applies a tag for a wild final out.
Young catcher Salvador Perez has been a popular name on people's lips to start this season, as his excellent performances last year have begun to be recognised. He hit .301 with 11 homers in 76 games, thanks largely to a minuscule strikeout rate (he had as many home runs as strikeouts against left-handed pitchers last season) . Unlike other players with low strikeout rates, he makes hard contact however, consistently hitting line drives which fuels his high average. His work behind the plate is also excellent, as he threw out 15 of 40 stealers last year and led all catchers with five pickoffs. Hosmer had a disaster sophomore campaign but is just too good a young slugger to stay down for long, so I like him to bounce back this season (he's only 23!). Francoeur became a popular name to criticise in 2012, as he recorded a shocking -2.7 WAR whilst on a sizeable contract. He'll be a Royal again this season, and should at least improve back towards his 2011 offensive stats whilst retaining his cannon arm from right field. Lorenzo Cain promised a monster season in Spring Training last year, but once again struggled with injuries. If he can stay on the field, he's an impact player both at the plate and in the field. Overall, this is a line-up that has strengths, but a propensity to strike out. The young guys need to start taking big steps forward, or the lack of on-base specialists may begin to show. Overall grade: 5/10.
Pitching
This pitching staff hasn't had a true ace since mid-2011 when it traded Zack Greinke to the Brewers, but it got something like an ace when the Royals acquired James Shields in the off-season. Shields was poor in 2010 (5.18 ERA) but downright dominant in 2011 (2.82). His true value is somewhere in between, and the Royals will be happy if he can replicate his 2012 stat line, with 227 innings pitched, a 3.52 ERA and 223 K's. He pitches deep into games, and the Royals will be hoping he wins 15+ as their number one guy. Jeremy Guthrie was actually a lot better after being traded to the Royals from the Rockies, with a 3.16 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 14 starts. His ERA is probably going to be somewhere closer to 4, but he should be a solid innings eater. Wade Davis has moved between the rotation and the bullpen in recent seasons for Tampa Bay, but looks set to be the Royals fourth starter this year. His stuff isn't overpowering, but he can be a solid workhorse who won't hurt the team. Finishing off the rotation will be Luis Mendoza, who beat Bruce Chen to the fifth spot in Spring Training. Mendoza improved after the all-star break last season, but won't win many games on his own and needs to reduce his walk rate in order to become a reliable fifth starter.
After Jonathan Broxton's mid-season trade last year, Greg Holland took over the full time closer role and pitched well, saving 16 games with a 2.96 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. His strikeout rate is monstrous (91 K's in 67 innings) though he'll need to cut down on the walks before he can become a truly elite 9th inning option. Kelvin Herrera looks set to be his main set-up man, after posting a strong 2.35 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 84 innings last year. His average fastball speed was 98.6 miles per hour last season, and it is the fastball/change-up combination that has made him so deadly. The lefty specialist will be 5 foot 7 inch 23 year old Tim Collins, who spent most of his early career convincing scouts he could be an effective pitcher despite his small frame. He was excellent for the Royals in 2012, with a 3.36 ERA and 93 strikeouts in 69 innings and he'll look to continue that fine work this season. Aaron Crow and Bruce Chen look like other likely candidates to finish off this bullpen, one of the more underrated relief corps in the American League. Overall, the pitching staff is still the clear weakness on this team. Shields is a big upgrade, but all four other pitchers have issues, and getting to the 6th or 7th inning with the game on the line may be tough to do. If they are able to do that, however, they have the relievers to see the game through. Excitingly, all of these late inning guys are pretty young, so further growth could be expected. Overall grade: 3/10.
Prospects
The Royals have drafted and developed superbly over the last few seasons, which is the main reason why they still have a strong system despite graduating Hosmer, Moustakas, Perez, Holland and Herrera as well as trading Wil Myers and Mike Montgomery over the past couple of seasons. The stud prospect is right-hand pitcher Kyle Zimmer who has a plus fastball to go with an excellent curveball and above-average changeup. He's had some lofty comparisons made by scouts, and could be the ace the Royals have been seeking for years. Their other top prospect is toolsy outfielder Bubba Starling who's yet to really fulfil the potential he was given on draft day. He's a speedy runner who has excellent raw power and can man center field capably. However, he has struggled with strikeouts, although if he is able to adapt a little over the next couple of seasons, he could become a very productive slugger. For 2013, John Lamb may be a rotation option in the second half after recovering from 2011 Tommy John surgery and Yordano Ventura and Sam Selman may find their way into the bullpen at some stage. The top prospect, Wil Myers is no longer part of the system, and KC will look to fill that hole with a strong draft. Overall grade: 6/10.
Overview
The Royals didn't live up to some of the expectations given to them last season, and whilst I think the off-season moves has made the team worse in the long run, there is no denying that they should have a positive impact for 2013. If Shields can be a legitimate ace, and the rest of the rotation can piece together 700 innings with a sub-four ERA then this team could remain in contention up until September, but ultimately they are still a season or two away from truly competing.
Prediciction: 77-85
Gif to Watch
The GIF for the Royals in this preview is a mad game ending play against the Cardinals. The Royals kick the ball around the infield allowing Greene to scamper home for the game-tying run except that Moustakas throws an absolute strike from the dugout and Quintero applies a tag for a wild final out.
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