The early goings to the season have been a lot of fun, with some teams and players on a ridiculous tear, whilst others appear to have signed in the season already. Everything can, and will, change over the next few months but having watched almost all teams play at least a few innings this season, I'd thought I'd chip in with my early season thoughts. I'll go division to division, starting in the AL with perhaps the most open division in baseball - the AL East.
Boston Red Sox - 13-6
Coming off a historically bad 2012 season in which the team won just 69 games, the rebuilt Sox have gotten off to a flyer in 2013. The main reason? Starting pitching. John Farrell has been credited with the jump in performance for Lester and Buchholz, and whilst his influence undoubtedly plays a part, I expected big bounceback seasons from the pair of them. I've watched them both pitch, and Lester's increased velocity is a real cause for optimism, as his cutter is causing right-handed hitters problems and his off-speed stuff continues to baffle lefties. Buchholz has always had excellent stuff, but so far this season he has combated his penchance for issuing walks with an amazing 94% strand rate. This number will go down, and subsequently his 0.90 ERA will go up, but he could still be due a monster season.
With the bat, Mike Napoli' production has been a pleasant surprise, as the hard hitting right-hander has taken full advantage of the friendly Fenway confines to post a .278/.321/.570 triple-slash with four home runs. The return of Ortiz will also provide a huge shot in the arm to this offense - it's easy to forget that he was posting a similar offensive stat line to Miguel Cabrera before injuries derailed his 2012 season. I see no reason why he can't hit .300 and challenge 30 home runs, even in his age-37 season. Ellsbury has wreaked havoc on the bases so far this season, and this offense has proven capable of keeping itself in games. It also helps that despite the injury to Joel Hanrahan, the bullpen has been lights out so far, with Junichi Tazawa impressing me in particular.
Baltimore Orioles - 11-8
I'm going to readily concede at this point that I haven't seen nearly as much of the Orioles as I should have, or would like to. Entering the season, many once again had them written off, despite their superb 2012 performance, and they have once again set out to prove the doubters wrong. Their record can largely thank the inspiring performances of Chris Davis, who has a .368/.457/.776 triple-slash and eight home runs to his name, building off a breakout season last year. Adam Jones has also hit well, and despite an injury to the ever-unlucky Brian Roberts, the offense has been one of the most productive in the AL.
The rotation hasn't actually been that impressive so far this season, as Wei-Yin Chen's 3.38 ERA leads the team. Both Jason Hammel and Chris Tillman have struggled a little, but I expect them to bounce back, and put up more stellar numbers. The bullpen has once again been superb, as Jim Johnson has closed out all eight opportunities granted to him and Darren O'Day has continued to be one of the best right-handed relievers in the Majors with his hard sinking fastball. Once top prospect Brian Matusz has had a few botched attempts to enter the big league rotation, but has finally found his groove as a left-handed reliever, using his hard breaking slider to allow just two hits in eight innings this season. If the rotation can sort out some issues, this staff will be very underrated.
New York Yankees - 11-9
Plenty of people were happy to write the Yankees off entering the season, but the ageing squad has set out to prove they still have life left in them, and sit above .500 at 3rd in the East. Robinson Cano has been as productive as ever, hitting .322 with 7 home runs, and he has received able support from the likes of Youkilis, Hafner and Wells. Ichiro's struggles and Jeter's setback continues to leave the line-up looking frail, but the bit-part pieces have contributed so far and the Yankees will hope they can at least make them competitive until the likes of Granderson and Teixeira return.
On the other hand, the rotation has been very impressive. CC Sabathia has been a bit disappointing, with a poor first start and rough outing against Tampa Bay exacerbating velocity concerns, but was fine in his other two starts, and his 3.34 ERA is not bad at all. 40 year old Andy Pettitte continues to turn back the clock, putting in several dominant outings on his way to a 2.22 ERA, and as long as he can stay on the field he should be productive. Hiroki Kuroda struggled a little with an injury in one start, but has continued to be one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball, firing a shutout against the Jays. Both Phil Hughes and Ivan Nova have struggled, which should surprise no-one, and the performances of the back-end of the rotation will hold back the quality of the top end. Mariano Rivera has once again turned back the years, saving all seven opportunities granted to him, although the bullpen hasn't been as dominant as the Yankees would have hoped.
Tampa Bay Rays - 10-11
The Rays have gotten off to a sluggish start so far this season, although after being 4-9 at one stage they have recovered well to a more respectable 10-11. The main reason for this slow start is the non-existent offense, as their .227 team average ranks 14th in the AL. Evan Longoria leads the team with 5 home runs, whilst the unexpected sparkplug has been glove-dominant first baseman James Loney who is hitting .327. Desmond Jennings has provided the speed with five steals, but a .298 OBP isn't really good enough for a lead-off hitter. These offensive woes make it strange that Wil Myers continues to battle away in triple-A, as the extra year of team control has been secured, so expect his arrival imminently.
David Price has struggled with inconsistencies in the early season goings, and he sports an expensive 5.52 ERA after five starts. The stuff is still there, but Price will need to locate better if he wants to repeat last year's Cy Young success. Behind him, the staff has been outstanding. Second year southpaw Matt Moore has been tremendous so far this season, with a 1.04 ERA and 29 strikeouts in 26 innings on his way to four wins. He is yet to truly address the walk issues, but this is a fine start to the year. Alex Cobb has also pitched very well, sporting just a 1.82 ERA and allowing just a single home run. Hellickson and Hernandez have bee indifferent, and personally I hope the Rays call up Chris Archer soon because he has shown the explosive stuff that could make him a future top of the rotation option.
Toronto Blue Jays - 9-13
Not many teams have been as disappointing so far this season as the Toronto Blue Jays. After the blockbuster off-season, hopes were sky high, but so far the team has only been able to prop up the AL East. The hitters have been awful, ranking last in the AL in team batting average, and the crushing loss of Jose Reyes will not fix that problem any time soon. Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista have struggled mightily, and though Brett Lawrie has returned from injury, he, Melky Cabrera and Emilio Bonifacio will need to start pulling their weight on this offense. J.P. Arencibia has been the lone bright spark in the line-up, crushing eight homers, but this hot streak won't last all season.
The team has been no better on the mound, with the rotation struggling mightily. J.A. Happ's 3.68 ERA leads the team, with R.A. Dickey still recovering after a couple of poor early starts as he sits on a 4.66 ERA. He should turn those fortunes around soon, but Mark Buehrle's struggles are more concerning, as his 6.35 ERA in five starts owes much to the 37 hits allowed in just 28 innings. Josh Johnson's stats are skewed by an awful outing against Detroit, but he has been far from pedigree so far this year, whilst Brandon Morrow has so far been unable to follow up from his breakout 2012 season. Casey Janssen has been very solid indeed at the back end of games, saving all six opportunities granted to him, but he is given few chances due to the poor performances from the starters. They'll need to turn that around if they want to get back on track.
Friday 26 April 2013
Monday 8 April 2013
Thoughts from DET-NYY and other games
One of the things that is so great about baseball, is that anything can happen in one game, one series or even one week. This time last season, the Mets were 6-2 and Omar Infante was one of the hottest hitters in baseball. By the end of the season, the Mets were 74-88 and Infante was nothing more than an above-average bottom of the line-up hitter. This year, it's Chris Davis going nuts with the bat, and the Colorado Rockies who are tied for the best record in baseball. Maybe they'll both go on to have surprise seasons, but you can't take anything from the first week of action. Of course, that is just what I'm about to do.
Tigers v Yankees
Having watched CC Sabathia struggle on opening day, I was intrigued to see how he would perform against a better offense in the form of the Detroit Tigers. Unsurprisingly, he quelled my concerns about velocity, with a fastball back up towards 93 and his usual dazzling array of off-speed offerings. He wasn't at his vintage best, striking out just four and recording just the single 1-2-3 inning, but he kept hitters off-balance, not allowing an extra-base hit, and ultimately did what he does best - won the game.
On the opposite side was the disappointing Justin Verlander. Verlander struggled to command his fastball all game, allowing it to run back over the plate and at 91-92, hitters were able to square it up. He did get unlucky, as Matt Tuiasosopo misplayed one hit, but he couldn't find his groove early in the game and never elevated the fastball velocity beyond the low nineties. Once he left the game, things got worse as the shaky Detroit bullpen allowed four more runs to score, with Phil Coke and Octavio Dotel both struggling.
I thought Kevin Youkilis had another good game, smoking a first inning double, drawing a walk and knocking in another run at the end. His best days are behind him, but he continues to be a productive clean-up hitter whilst injuries plague this line-up. The bottom third of the Yankees line-up is embarrassingly bad on paper, with Jayson Nix, Lyle Overbay and Francisco Cervelli simply not Major League calibre hitters. But they were productive yesterday, with the veteran Nix even homering. With Gardner and Cano struggling atop the line-up, the production of these bit-part players is crucial.
Around the league
It was a woeful day for aces, as R.A. Dickey got jacked up by Will Middlebrooks and the rest of the Red Sox line-up. Dickey will come good eventually, but this is a disconcerting start to the season for the reigning NL Cy Young, as the Jays have stuttered out of the gate. David Price fared even worse, allowing eight runs in five innings as the Indians line-up exploded at Tropicana Field. Matt Cain had a nightmare fourth inning, as 14 hitters took to the plate as nine runs scored for the Cardinals. And finally, Cole Hamels allowed eight runs in 5.2 innings, punctuated by a Billy Butler grand slam. The end to that game was exciting, as the Phillies launched a ninth inning comeback, scoring four runs to reduce the deficit to 9-8 before Kelvin Herrera slammed the door with the winning run in scoring position. Jose Fernandez had probably the highlight of the Marlins season (and I don't mean so far) as he was dazzling on debut, striking out eight over five strong innings. The fastball sat between 95 and 97 all game, and he paired it with hard breaking balls and change-ups. Hitters will begin to catch up with him, but for now he looks set to put up Matt Harvey-esque numbers playing in spacious Marlins Park.
Play of the Day
Yesterday's play of the day came courtesy of Logan Schafer of the Milwaukee Brewers, who threw a strike from left field to gun down Miguel Montero.
Thursday 4 April 2013
Near Perfecto's: The guys who just missed
In baseball, there are few feats hard to accomplish than a perfect game. As the pitcher, you must retire all twenty seven hitters you face, without allowing a hit, without issuing a walk and all the time hoping that the defense is watertight or perhaps even better behind you. There's a reason there have only been 23 perfect games in baseball history, and Yu Darvish showed it perfectly on Tuesday night when having peerlessly retired 26 flailing Houston hitters, he gave up a base hit to the 27th batter. A remarkable performance, but one that will not go down in the history books. Such is the brutality of sport.
Of course, Darvish isn't the only pitcher to come close. Take a look at any pitcher who's thrown a no-hitter. They were denied their shot at immortality through walks, errors, hit by pitch, maybe even a strikeout pitch that got away from the catcher. And then there are the pitchers like Darvish, who have the hitters confounded until the ninth inning, even until the final batter. And one good swing, one misplay from a fielder and their dream is shattered, their performance was excellent, but not special, not perfect.
In history, there have been ten perfect games broken up with two outs in the ninth, an extraordinary stat when you consider there have only been 23 perfect games. For a fan, there is nothing more tense than the ninth inning of a perfect game - I sat wringing my hands as Felix Hernandez finished off his perfecto last August - so you can only imagine the pressure on the pitcher. When that 27th batter reaches, there is a moment of despair, of regret, but ultimately there is the wry smile and the shake of the head. What can you do?
So, looking back at those ten near perfectos, there are some really interesting cases. The oldest 26-out perfect game was in 1908, when George 'Hooks' Wiltse retired 26 Philadelphia Phillies before plunking their pitcher George McQuillan on a 2-2 count. Extraordinarily, the game was knotted at 0-0, and it was not until the 10th when Wiltse received a run of support and he ended up with a 10 inning no-hitter. Umpire Cy Rigler later admitted he should have called strike three on the 1-2 pitch to McQuillan, but alas Wiltse was forced to throw another, fateful pitch that cannoned into his opposite number.
Tommy Bridges came within one out of perfection in 1932, when Senators pinch hitter Dave Harris replaced the pitcher and lined a single into the outfield to break up the perfect game. It wouldn't be the last time Bridges took a no-hitter into the ninth only to lose it, doing the same thing the following season, again against the Senators. Bridges career was an astonishing one all-in-all, as he started his career retiring Babe Ruth, took a no-hitter and perfect game into the ninth, pitched a complete game in game 6 of the 1935 World Series, served in the army in the second World War before returning to baseball and winning another championship in 1945.
Billy Pierce also had a 26 out perfect game in 1958, against (who else) the Washington Senators. Pinch hitter Ed Fitz Gerald lined a double that fell fair by about a foot to break up the moment of history, the performance that would have been the first perfect game by a left hander since 1880. Pierce is somewhat of a White Sox legend, owning the franchise record for career strikeouts and making the all-star team seven times. His piece of immortality was ruined in 1958 however, when the first pitch curveball was sent flying the other way.
Milt Pappas fell one out shy of a perfect game on September 2nd 1972 against the San Diego Padres, when two close pitches on a 2-2 count to pinch hitter Larry Stahl were both called balls and he was forced to settle for a no-hitter. Pappas felt that both pitches should have been called strikes, and even decades later he has begrudged home plate umpire Bruce Froemming for those calls.
His namesake, Milt Wilcox came within one out of a perfect game on April 15, 1983 when pinch hitter Jerry Hairston Sr. lined a single to break up both the perfecto and no-no. The opposing manager on that day, Tony LaRussa was the man who had sent Hairston in to bat, and the man who made a career from clutch pinch hits tallied another one with a lined hit up the middle. Wilcox wasn't a future hall-of-famer, in fact he wasn't even the ace of the rotation. He was a number three who chewed up some effective innings for Detroit but had his moment of history stolen from him in 1983.
In 1988, Ron Robinson of the Cincinatti Reds had his shot at perfection stolen at the final hurdle when a 2-2 curve was lined into left field by pinch hitter Wallace Johnson. To make this disappointment worse, the next hitter would crank a home run and Robinson would be unable to finish the game, never to pitch a shutout in his career. "I think if I get that curveball down, I could have gotten it," Robinson said, "I'm really just glad to get the victory."
The next near perfecto would come just a year later, when 32 year old Dave Stieb struck out the first two hitters he faced in the ninth inning before giving up a two out double to Roberto Kelly. Stieb's no-hitter history is incredible. In 1985 he took a no hitter into the ninth inning before allowing back-to-back home runs and being removed from the game. Extraordinarily, in 1988 he had a no hitter with two outs in the ninth in back to back starts. On both occasions he took the hitter to two strikes, and on both occasions his heart was broken by a base hit. Fortunately, on September 2nd 1990, he finally got the job done, throwing the first (and, to date, only) no-hitter in Toronto Blue Jays history.
The next near perfecto was an extraordinary one. Brian Holman was pitching a gem on April 20th 1990, retiring the first 26 hitters he faced before Ken Phelps laced not just a hit, but a home run into right field. With one hit, Holman lost the perfect game, the no hitter and even the shutout. That turned out to be the final home run of Phelps' career, and Holman was never able to reach the same heights, having almost pitched the first no hitter in Seattle Mariners history, and against the World Champion Athletics too.
We come much closer to the present day for our next near-perfect game, and it was a performance that perhaps some of you remember. Mike Mussina retired the first 26 Boston Red Sox that came to the plate, before pinch hitter Carl Everett managed to bloop a 1-2 pitch into left field and ruin the chance at perfection. The performance is widely regarded as one of the most dominant in Yankees history, and it wasn't the first time Mussina flirted with perfection, havign retired the first 23 hitters he faced in 1998 against Detroit before giving up a double.
Perhaps the most infamous near perfecto was Armando Galarraga's. His name is now synonymous with his June 2nd 2010 performance in which the little-known right hander masterfully retired the first 26 hitters, and with just his 83rd pitch he induced a groundball to the right hand side. Miguel Cabrera fielded the ball well, steadied himself and threw to the covering Galarraga, only to find umpire Jim Joyce had ruled Jason Donald safe. On the field there was outrage from all - all except Galarraga, who smiled to himself - and upon instant replay it became clear that Joyce had blown the call and Donald had been out. The perfect game had been stolen from Galarraga in the cruelest way possible, and even today, some call it the '28 out perfect game'. Galarraga's reaction, both after the play when he had just a wry smile and after the game when he refused to blame Joyce, saying (ironically) 'nobody's perfect', drew plenty of praise, and Joyce's tearful apology made what could have been an ugly situation one that exemplified all that is great about sport.
And of course,the most recent near perfect game happened on April 2nd, when Yu Darvish ran through the Astros for 8.2 innings before a first pitch fastball was sent between his legs by Marwin Gonzalez. At the age of 26, Yu has plenty of time to try and give himself another opportunity, and personally I don't think he'll look back at this game at the end of his career with regret. As it is, 26 out perfect games have become something of a legend in baseball history. Perfect games are only so rare, and so hard, because it is so easy for one to slip from a pitcher's grip.
Of course, Darvish isn't the only pitcher to come close. Take a look at any pitcher who's thrown a no-hitter. They were denied their shot at immortality through walks, errors, hit by pitch, maybe even a strikeout pitch that got away from the catcher. And then there are the pitchers like Darvish, who have the hitters confounded until the ninth inning, even until the final batter. And one good swing, one misplay from a fielder and their dream is shattered, their performance was excellent, but not special, not perfect.
In history, there have been ten perfect games broken up with two outs in the ninth, an extraordinary stat when you consider there have only been 23 perfect games. For a fan, there is nothing more tense than the ninth inning of a perfect game - I sat wringing my hands as Felix Hernandez finished off his perfecto last August - so you can only imagine the pressure on the pitcher. When that 27th batter reaches, there is a moment of despair, of regret, but ultimately there is the wry smile and the shake of the head. What can you do?
So, looking back at those ten near perfectos, there are some really interesting cases. The oldest 26-out perfect game was in 1908, when George 'Hooks' Wiltse retired 26 Philadelphia Phillies before plunking their pitcher George McQuillan on a 2-2 count. Extraordinarily, the game was knotted at 0-0, and it was not until the 10th when Wiltse received a run of support and he ended up with a 10 inning no-hitter. Umpire Cy Rigler later admitted he should have called strike three on the 1-2 pitch to McQuillan, but alas Wiltse was forced to throw another, fateful pitch that cannoned into his opposite number.
Tommy Bridges came within one out of perfection in 1932, when Senators pinch hitter Dave Harris replaced the pitcher and lined a single into the outfield to break up the perfect game. It wouldn't be the last time Bridges took a no-hitter into the ninth only to lose it, doing the same thing the following season, again against the Senators. Bridges career was an astonishing one all-in-all, as he started his career retiring Babe Ruth, took a no-hitter and perfect game into the ninth, pitched a complete game in game 6 of the 1935 World Series, served in the army in the second World War before returning to baseball and winning another championship in 1945.
Billy Pierce also had a 26 out perfect game in 1958, against (who else) the Washington Senators. Pinch hitter Ed Fitz Gerald lined a double that fell fair by about a foot to break up the moment of history, the performance that would have been the first perfect game by a left hander since 1880. Pierce is somewhat of a White Sox legend, owning the franchise record for career strikeouts and making the all-star team seven times. His piece of immortality was ruined in 1958 however, when the first pitch curveball was sent flying the other way.
Milt Pappas fell one out shy of a perfect game on September 2nd 1972 against the San Diego Padres, when two close pitches on a 2-2 count to pinch hitter Larry Stahl were both called balls and he was forced to settle for a no-hitter. Pappas felt that both pitches should have been called strikes, and even decades later he has begrudged home plate umpire Bruce Froemming for those calls.
His namesake, Milt Wilcox came within one out of a perfect game on April 15, 1983 when pinch hitter Jerry Hairston Sr. lined a single to break up both the perfecto and no-no. The opposing manager on that day, Tony LaRussa was the man who had sent Hairston in to bat, and the man who made a career from clutch pinch hits tallied another one with a lined hit up the middle. Wilcox wasn't a future hall-of-famer, in fact he wasn't even the ace of the rotation. He was a number three who chewed up some effective innings for Detroit but had his moment of history stolen from him in 1983.
In 1988, Ron Robinson of the Cincinatti Reds had his shot at perfection stolen at the final hurdle when a 2-2 curve was lined into left field by pinch hitter Wallace Johnson. To make this disappointment worse, the next hitter would crank a home run and Robinson would be unable to finish the game, never to pitch a shutout in his career. "I think if I get that curveball down, I could have gotten it," Robinson said, "I'm really just glad to get the victory."
The next near perfecto would come just a year later, when 32 year old Dave Stieb struck out the first two hitters he faced in the ninth inning before giving up a two out double to Roberto Kelly. Stieb's no-hitter history is incredible. In 1985 he took a no hitter into the ninth inning before allowing back-to-back home runs and being removed from the game. Extraordinarily, in 1988 he had a no hitter with two outs in the ninth in back to back starts. On both occasions he took the hitter to two strikes, and on both occasions his heart was broken by a base hit. Fortunately, on September 2nd 1990, he finally got the job done, throwing the first (and, to date, only) no-hitter in Toronto Blue Jays history.
The next near perfecto was an extraordinary one. Brian Holman was pitching a gem on April 20th 1990, retiring the first 26 hitters he faced before Ken Phelps laced not just a hit, but a home run into right field. With one hit, Holman lost the perfect game, the no hitter and even the shutout. That turned out to be the final home run of Phelps' career, and Holman was never able to reach the same heights, having almost pitched the first no hitter in Seattle Mariners history, and against the World Champion Athletics too.
We come much closer to the present day for our next near-perfect game, and it was a performance that perhaps some of you remember. Mike Mussina retired the first 26 Boston Red Sox that came to the plate, before pinch hitter Carl Everett managed to bloop a 1-2 pitch into left field and ruin the chance at perfection. The performance is widely regarded as one of the most dominant in Yankees history, and it wasn't the first time Mussina flirted with perfection, havign retired the first 23 hitters he faced in 1998 against Detroit before giving up a double.
Perhaps the most infamous near perfecto was Armando Galarraga's. His name is now synonymous with his June 2nd 2010 performance in which the little-known right hander masterfully retired the first 26 hitters, and with just his 83rd pitch he induced a groundball to the right hand side. Miguel Cabrera fielded the ball well, steadied himself and threw to the covering Galarraga, only to find umpire Jim Joyce had ruled Jason Donald safe. On the field there was outrage from all - all except Galarraga, who smiled to himself - and upon instant replay it became clear that Joyce had blown the call and Donald had been out. The perfect game had been stolen from Galarraga in the cruelest way possible, and even today, some call it the '28 out perfect game'. Galarraga's reaction, both after the play when he had just a wry smile and after the game when he refused to blame Joyce, saying (ironically) 'nobody's perfect', drew plenty of praise, and Joyce's tearful apology made what could have been an ugly situation one that exemplified all that is great about sport.
And of course,the most recent near perfect game happened on April 2nd, when Yu Darvish ran through the Astros for 8.2 innings before a first pitch fastball was sent between his legs by Marwin Gonzalez. At the age of 26, Yu has plenty of time to try and give himself another opportunity, and personally I don't think he'll look back at this game at the end of his career with regret. As it is, 26 out perfect games have become something of a legend in baseball history. Perfect games are only so rare, and so hard, because it is so easy for one to slip from a pitcher's grip.
Tuesday 2 April 2013
Five guys primed for a breakout season
Predicting breakout seasons can be tough. Sometimes all the signs seem to point to a monster year at the plate, and four months later the guy you picked has been demoted to triple-A because he can barely break the Mendoza line. If you expect a guy to hit .300, then it becomes an unimpressive feat (see Mauer, Joe), but if you expect him to hit .250 then it's an extraordinary breakout (see Bautista, Jose circa 2011). Some popular breakout names last year went on to have big years (Mike Trout, Stephen Strasburg, Mike Minor) but some were far from impressive (Eric Hosmer, Jesus Montero). Who do I see making the next step this season?
1. Matt Moore, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
A popular breakout name as a rookie last season, Matt Moore was solid if unspectacular in the Rays rotation. A 3.81 ERA and 1.35 WHIP weren't quite the numbers people cited when predicting a big season, but for a 22 year old pitcher in the AL East it's not bad at all. The strikeout rate was healthy at 8.88 K/9 and if he can reduce the walks (81 in 177 innings) I think he could easily fill the void left by James Shields. His Cy Young seasons probably aren't arriving in the next couple of years, but he could easily become a top starter with that stud defense behind him.
2. Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City Royals
Hosmer struggled mightily as a sophomore last year, hitting just .232 with 14 home runs. He was mighty unlucky, particularly in April when he had an extraordinarily low .190 BABIP. From there, he began to throw away his plate discipline as he searched for a higher average and the season was ultimately lost. He still has the same tools that had scouts raving a year ago, and I think he can bounce back for the Royals this year and put up a .280/.340/.440 triple-slash.
3. Andrelton Simmons, SS, Atlanta Braves
It doesn't matter what Simmons does at the plate this season, he is still going to be the best defensive shortstop in the National League. He's simply superb in the field, but don't be fooled into thinking he is a glove-only player who will hit ninth and barely scrape together a .280 OBP. He won a batting title in the Minors and will be hitting leadoff for a high powered Braves offense. He was a monster for the Netherlands in the WBC, and I think he could easily score 100 runs whilst hitting around .280 with patience and a bit of power/speed. He's primed for greatness.
4. Carlos Santana, C, Cleveland Indians
This is a slightly odd choice, because Santana has made himself into one of the better catchers in the league already, what kind of room is there for growth? I think there's plenty. Santana has never been a high average guy, hitting .252 last season, but he has elite plate discipline, drawing 91 walks to give himself a .365 OBP. Batters with his kind of patience generally develop better average because pitchers begin to throw more strikes, and his raw power doesn't need explaining, as he has 45 homers over the past two seasons. If he can up the average to around .275, you're talking about a player with 25 home run power, a .370 OBP and elite defense behind the plate.
5. Jean Segura, SS, Milwaukee Brewers
Segura isn't about to win the MVP award, or a batting title for that matter. But he is a solid player who should be a lock for 3 or 4 wins a season for several years. The defense is solid at shortstop, and he has an excellent hit tool, with line drive power that should let him hit for average even if the home run total is unlikely to surpass 10. He's also got enough speed to be a perennial 20 steal threat, and maybe even coast into the 30s in his peak, so whilst he's not a particularly sexy name to back for a big season, I think he'll go under the radar as one of the Brewers better starters.
The guys who just missed
Jesus Montero - It was kind of him or Hosmer from the bounceback candidates, and even with the Safeco fences in I'm not sure he'll be a much better hitter.
Domonic Brown - I like the ability, and I like the potential, but you just don't know when the Phillies are going to decide they don't like him again and send him to AAA.
Jackie Bradley/Jedd Gyorko - Obvious guys who built up some buzz in Spring Training, but don't expect all-stars.
Wil Myers/Oscar Taveras/Zack Wheeler/Gerrit Cole/Jurickson Profar - I expect all these guys to make it to the big leagues at some point this year, and be impact players when they do make it, but it's impossible to guess when they'll be called up. I'd guess Myers is the first to get called up, but injuries to any team could open a hole.
Opening Day Thoughts: SF v LAD and BOS v NYY
After Houston's upset opening night victory against the Rangers, baseball kicked off for 24 teams yesterday on Opening Day. I watched the opening five or six innings of the Red Sox v Yankees game and almost all of the Giants v Dodgers game, so here are my thoughts:
Red Sox v Yankees
I thought Jon Lester looked very solid indeed, working five innings of two-run ball with seven strikeouts. The fastball looked sharp, up as high as 97, and the cutter kept right-handed hitters off balance. He did struggle a little with command, throwing 96 pitches in the game, and will be disappointed to have allowed a two-run single to Cervelli on a 1-2 count. But on the basis of yesterday's game, Lester should put his disappointing 2012 campaign behind him.
The other left-hander on the mound, C.C. Sabathia laboured through his five innings of work, uncharacteristically walking four batters and giving up four runs. The one thing that stuck out to me was his inability to rear back and throw his fastball at 95 as he has been able to in the past. The two-run single he gave up to Victorino was on a pitch that he simply didn't throw as hard (or far enough inside) as he wanted to. He's traditionally struggled on opening day, and the change-up was fooling right-handed hitters regularly, but it wasn't the start he would have wanted.
Jackie Bradley Jr. had a fine debut out in left field for the Red Sox, drawing three walks and making a spectacular run saving catch to rob Cano of extra bases. Whilst plate discipline is a key part of his game, and his second inning walk in particular was impressive, it's worth bearing in mind that with Jose Iglesias hitting behind him he is almost filling the same role as the 8th hitter in an NL line-up. Sabathia seemed to find a hole in his swing when going down and in, so that may be an area pitchers look to exploit.
Kevin Youkilis got a mixed reception each time he walked to the plate, but he hit two hard balls in his first two plate appearances. One was hauled in by Victorino whilst one put Youkilis on second and led to the Yankees only runs of the game. There will be some pressure on Youk to be a big performer for this depleted Yankee line-up, and whilst some of his skills have depreciated, I like him to have a decent year.
Giants v Dodgers
The star of the show was undisputably Clayton Kershaw, who delivered the go-ahead home-run on his way to a complete-game shutout as he crushed the Giants. He gave up just four hits in the game, two on infield hits that could possibly have been outs and two to Pablo Sandoval. His fastball was located well, sitting in the low nineties, and his curveball was as sharp as ever, giving left-handed hitters fits. He was my pick for Cy Young (him or Cliff Lee) and last night's performance was Cy Young calibre.
I couldn't help but notice how big Pablo Sandoval looked. He's never been a small guy, but he is in no type of athletic shape at the moment, as far as I can see. He roped a couple of hits in the game, and getting bat on ball has never been an issue for him, but I can't help but think he'd be a much more complete player if he shed 40 pounds. His lateral mobility at third base is approximately equal to that of a small minibus, and the final play of the game would have been an infield hit or a bang-bang play for most hitters - Sandoval was out by a couple of steps. He'd also be a more durable hitter if he shed some weight, and as the announcers pointed out, he'd probably earn himself a more handsome contract extension too. Food for thought (not for consumption) for the Kung Fu Panda.
I was a little surprised that Matt Cain was pulled from a 0-0 game after 6 innings, I felt on 93 pitches he could have gone another inning. Whilst Kontos looked good in the seventh inning, I was surprised he stayed out there to start the eighth, when he isn't really a premier reliever in a bullpen that is fresher than it'll ever be. You can never expect to surrender a home run to a pitcher, but Kontos stuck a fastball down the middle and Kershaw put a good swing on it. He was then left out there without a mound visit and immediately gave up an opposite field double to Crawford. The key play came next when Ellis popped up the bunt and Posey dropped a potential double play diving out in front of the plate. It was a tough out, but you'd expect Posey to make it. After that, the 'pen collapsed as Casilla unnecessarily walked Kemp, Affeldt plunked Adrian Gonzalez and two productive outs suddenly made it 4-0.
Other Thoughts
Bryce Harper showed off his flair for the dramatic, crushing two mistake breaking balls for home runs as Strasburg was able to subdue Stanton and a bunch of minor leaguers for seven innings. Justin Upton homered in his first game as a Brave, as they defeated the Phillies despite Chase Utley falling a double shy of the cycle. John Axford blew another save, giving up a game tying homer to Dexter Fowler, but he was bailed out by his hitters as the Brewers won in 10 innings. And the hero for the Angels was... Chris Iannetta who had all three RBI as they defeated the Reds in an opening day interleague match-up.
Tonight's Slate
David Price makes his first start against the Orioles at the Trop and R.A. Dickey makes his first start as a Blue Jay against the Indians. The pick of the games is probably the Giants-Dodgers match-up, as Madison Bumgarner will do battle with debutant Hyun-Jin Ryu.
Play of the Day
Yesterday's play of the day goes to Pedro Florimon of the Minnesota Twins, who made this fine play to retire Miguel Cabrera.
Red Sox v Yankees
I thought Jon Lester looked very solid indeed, working five innings of two-run ball with seven strikeouts. The fastball looked sharp, up as high as 97, and the cutter kept right-handed hitters off balance. He did struggle a little with command, throwing 96 pitches in the game, and will be disappointed to have allowed a two-run single to Cervelli on a 1-2 count. But on the basis of yesterday's game, Lester should put his disappointing 2012 campaign behind him.
The other left-hander on the mound, C.C. Sabathia laboured through his five innings of work, uncharacteristically walking four batters and giving up four runs. The one thing that stuck out to me was his inability to rear back and throw his fastball at 95 as he has been able to in the past. The two-run single he gave up to Victorino was on a pitch that he simply didn't throw as hard (or far enough inside) as he wanted to. He's traditionally struggled on opening day, and the change-up was fooling right-handed hitters regularly, but it wasn't the start he would have wanted.
Jackie Bradley Jr. had a fine debut out in left field for the Red Sox, drawing three walks and making a spectacular run saving catch to rob Cano of extra bases. Whilst plate discipline is a key part of his game, and his second inning walk in particular was impressive, it's worth bearing in mind that with Jose Iglesias hitting behind him he is almost filling the same role as the 8th hitter in an NL line-up. Sabathia seemed to find a hole in his swing when going down and in, so that may be an area pitchers look to exploit.
Kevin Youkilis got a mixed reception each time he walked to the plate, but he hit two hard balls in his first two plate appearances. One was hauled in by Victorino whilst one put Youkilis on second and led to the Yankees only runs of the game. There will be some pressure on Youk to be a big performer for this depleted Yankee line-up, and whilst some of his skills have depreciated, I like him to have a decent year.
Giants v Dodgers
The star of the show was undisputably Clayton Kershaw, who delivered the go-ahead home-run on his way to a complete-game shutout as he crushed the Giants. He gave up just four hits in the game, two on infield hits that could possibly have been outs and two to Pablo Sandoval. His fastball was located well, sitting in the low nineties, and his curveball was as sharp as ever, giving left-handed hitters fits. He was my pick for Cy Young (him or Cliff Lee) and last night's performance was Cy Young calibre.
I couldn't help but notice how big Pablo Sandoval looked. He's never been a small guy, but he is in no type of athletic shape at the moment, as far as I can see. He roped a couple of hits in the game, and getting bat on ball has never been an issue for him, but I can't help but think he'd be a much more complete player if he shed 40 pounds. His lateral mobility at third base is approximately equal to that of a small minibus, and the final play of the game would have been an infield hit or a bang-bang play for most hitters - Sandoval was out by a couple of steps. He'd also be a more durable hitter if he shed some weight, and as the announcers pointed out, he'd probably earn himself a more handsome contract extension too. Food for thought (not for consumption) for the Kung Fu Panda.
I was a little surprised that Matt Cain was pulled from a 0-0 game after 6 innings, I felt on 93 pitches he could have gone another inning. Whilst Kontos looked good in the seventh inning, I was surprised he stayed out there to start the eighth, when he isn't really a premier reliever in a bullpen that is fresher than it'll ever be. You can never expect to surrender a home run to a pitcher, but Kontos stuck a fastball down the middle and Kershaw put a good swing on it. He was then left out there without a mound visit and immediately gave up an opposite field double to Crawford. The key play came next when Ellis popped up the bunt and Posey dropped a potential double play diving out in front of the plate. It was a tough out, but you'd expect Posey to make it. After that, the 'pen collapsed as Casilla unnecessarily walked Kemp, Affeldt plunked Adrian Gonzalez and two productive outs suddenly made it 4-0.
Other Thoughts
Bryce Harper showed off his flair for the dramatic, crushing two mistake breaking balls for home runs as Strasburg was able to subdue Stanton and a bunch of minor leaguers for seven innings. Justin Upton homered in his first game as a Brave, as they defeated the Phillies despite Chase Utley falling a double shy of the cycle. John Axford blew another save, giving up a game tying homer to Dexter Fowler, but he was bailed out by his hitters as the Brewers won in 10 innings. And the hero for the Angels was... Chris Iannetta who had all three RBI as they defeated the Reds in an opening day interleague match-up.
Tonight's Slate
David Price makes his first start against the Orioles at the Trop and R.A. Dickey makes his first start as a Blue Jay against the Indians. The pick of the games is probably the Giants-Dodgers match-up, as Madison Bumgarner will do battle with debutant Hyun-Jin Ryu.
Play of the Day
Yesterday's play of the day goes to Pedro Florimon of the Minnesota Twins, who made this fine play to retire Miguel Cabrera.
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