2012 Season
The 2012 season was a disappointing one for the Phillies, as they finished 81-81, well out of the race for the division and wildcard. The line-up was a disappointment throughout, with the notable exception of Carlos Ruiz who put up a .325/.394/540 triple-slash until he was injured and later suspended. Ryan Howard and Chase Utley battled injuries, whilst Cliff Lee suffered through one of the most unlucky seasons a starting pitcher can have, when despite a 3.16 ERA and 1.11 WHIP he accrued just 6 wins. His season was perhaps epitomised by an outing against the Giants where he blanked them for 10 innings and ended up with a no-decision. Overall, a year that failed to live up to expectations, and better things are expected in Philly.
Off-Season
IN: John Lannan, Mike Adams, Ben Revere, Michael Young, Delmon Young
OUT: Vance Worley, Juan Pierre, Nate Schierholtz, Placido Polanco
Overview: Not exactly a blockbuster off-season for the Phillies. I liked their trade for Revere, but with clear deficiencies in the outfield corners and at third base, management chose to fill them with two Young veterans (geddit?!). Delmon seems to have been around forever, but is incredibly just 27, and ironically entering his physical prime. His .267/.296/.411 triple-slash last season is far from inspiring, and he plays awful outfield defense. Michael at third base is without doubt a Ranger legend, but suffered from a poor season last year, with just a .312 OBP and .370 SLG, whilst there must be serious questions raised about his ability to handle the hot corner full time. Amaro's quip that he 'doesn't care about walks' but 'cares about production' must be cause for concern for Philly fans. Overall, it is an off-season that didn't have the big-spending some Phillies fans may have grown accustomed to, and even the more 'shrewd' signings make little sense to me. Overall grade: 2/10.
| Projected Opening Day Line-up | ||
|---|---|---|
| Position | Player | Projected stat line (OBP/SLG/WAR) |
| SS | Jimmy Rollins | .317/.411/3.3 |
| 3B | Michael Young | .343/.416/1.3 |
| 2B | Chase Utley | .372/.463/3.5 |
| 1B | Ryan Howard | .344/.494/0.9 |
| RF | Domonic Brown | .336/.433/2.1 |
| CF | Ben Revere | .331/.331/2.5 |
| LF | Laynce Nix | .298/.431/0.5 |
| C | Erik Kratz | .318/.460/1.5 |
| Projected rotation | ||
|---|---|---|
| Starter | Player | Projected stat line (IP/ERA/WAR) |
| 1 | Cole Hamels | 223/3.23/4.4 |
| 2 | Cliff Lee | 224/3.17/5.7 |
| 3 | Roy Halladay | 230/3.21/4.5 |
| 4 | Kyle Kendrick | 180/4.25/0.7 |
| 5 | John Lannan | 55/4.58/1.4 |
Position Players
Ryan Howard will be the leader of this group of position players, despite playing just 79 games in 2012 and putting up a feeble .219/.295/.423 triple-slash in those games. Howard is younger than he seems at 33, and I have to think last year was an anomaly because of his injury. His years of challenging the 50-homer mark are in the rear view mirror, although he still has prodigious power if he can stay healthy. His real challenge will be making enough contact and drawing enough walks to be productive even when he isn't mashing dingers. Atop the line-up is the dynamic veteran Rollins. As with Howard, some of his skills have declined, particularly his contact rates but he still has a terrific mixture of speed and power and plays a premier shortstop in the field. Completing the trifecta of wily veterans will be Chase Utley. He's struggled with injuries a bit in recent years, playing just 83 games last season, but there are few suggestions that he has lost his skillset. As with Rollins, the average took a dip, to .256 but he draws enough walks to continue to press for a .350 OBP or higher. Having not played a full season for a few years, it's tough to gauge what his power is like, but a 20 homer, 20 steal season wouldn't be out of the question assuming he is fully fit.
The outfield isn't terrific, although the acquisition of Revere was a wise one in my opinion. Revere plays outstanding defense in center field, and his .294 average and .333 OBP suggests he can reach base enough to take advantage of his speed. I think I'd play him atop the line-up rather than hidden down at 7. Domonic Brown has gotten off to a flyer so far in Spring Training, and having been seemingly ignored by the Phillies for several seasons, the once top-prospect should get a shot at an everyday role this year. Unfortunately, Delmon Young might steal some at-bats against lefties. Darin Ruf was the original plan for right field, but he has struggled mightily so far in Spring Training, so it seems it will be a Nix will share a platoon with John Mayberry for the time being. Erik Kratz gets his shot at an everyday role with Ruiz's suspension, but with a career .281 OBP, he won't be relied on for much production. Overall, this is a unit that lacks real star power, as Howard, Utley and Rollins have all passed their prime. The outfield is a bit of a mess, and it looks like it may be another year of frustration at the plate. Overall grade: 4/10.
Pitching
The real strength of this team lies on the mound. The team's ace has quietly become Cole Hamels, the 29 year-old southpaw who has put up video-game stats in the past couple of seasons. After a 6.2 win season in 2011, Hamels owned a 3.05 ERA and 1.12 WHIP to go with 216 strikeouts last season and vaulted himself into the top echelon of starters. Ably backing him up is fellow leftie Cliff Lee, who put up numbers right in line with his career stats other than in the win column last season. His K/BB rate is outstanding, with 207 strikeouts paired with just 28 walks last season. He suffered a bit on the home run ball, so if he can reduce the 11.8% HR/FB rate he should be in for another Cy-calibre season. Roy Halladay struggled last season, with a 4.49 ERA and 1.22 WHIP both way outside his career averages. At age 35, he may be starting to deteriorate, and his reduced velocity in Spring Training so far suggests the perennial Cy Young contender may be in line for a poor year. Kendrick and Lannan are both unspectacular innings-eaters who finish off a strong rotation.
The bullpen will once again look to Jonathan Papelbon to lead it after his solid first season in Philadelphia. His 2.44 ERA and 1.06 WHIP are right around where he'd be expected to be, and if he can replicate the 38 saves there will be few 9th inning issues for the Phillies. This year, he has a premier eighth-inning man before him in the form of Mike Adams who has made himself one of the finest set-up men in baseball. His 3.27 ERA and 1.39 WHIP were actually his highest since 2007, and he'll be hoping to have somewhat of a bounceback year in 2013. Chad Durbin had a strong season with the Braves last season, and will try to replicate his success this year, whilst Antonio Bastardo will return to being the primary left-hander in the 'pen after a hit-and-miss 2012 campaign. Overall, this pitching staff has a couple of ace-calibre starters, and enough innings-eaters and bullpen depth to keep the team in most games. The form of Halladay will be vital, but I don't think the pitching will be losing games for the Phillies this season. Overall grade: 7/10.
Prospects
The Phillies farm system is pretty weak, a result of poor drafting and a lot of trading in recent years. Cody Asche could earn some playing time at third base, although he's not a particularly big prospect, whilst Darin Ruf will get some playing time. Adam Morgan is probably their best prospect, and with injuries he could find his way into the rotation at some point this season whilst Kenny Giles could be an impact September call-up. Overall, it's a system without much depth or high-impact players, and the Phillies will be looking to bolster it with drafts and trades in coming seasons. Overall grade: 3/10.
Overview
Overall, this is a team that finished .500 last season and hasn't improved much since. The rotation has the potential to be deadly, but the line-up is full of veterans with question marks and failed prospects. It's always possible they make a big splash with a trade, but whilst they may keep pace in the East, I think they are clearly the third-best team at the moment.
Prediction: 83-79
Gif to Watch
I said Ben Revere played great defense, and this so-close catch would surely have been play of the year had he made it stick.
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