Baseball Podcasts

Living in the UK tends to greatly reduce your exposure to baseball, although this is improving with services like MLB.TV and the growing number of available podcasts. Podcasts are a fantastic way to keep abreast of baseball news, and with the number of shows to choose from, there is bound to be something there you like and want to listen to.

Two weeks ago, if you'd have put a gun to my head and told me I could only keep one podcast, I would have taken ESPN's 'Baseball Today' show. Hosted by Eric Karabell, the show also featured Keith Law and Mark Simon who co-hosted on alternate weeks, as well as frequent guests like David Schoenfield and Jayson Stark. Karabell's style was inoffensive, with years of podcast hosting under his belt he had an easy style that kept the show flowing and avoided awkward moments. The real genius of the show lay in the hands of Keith Law who is simply the finest writer in baseball. The podcast made me laugh, made me think and at the end made me a lot more knowledgeable. Of course, it ended up being too good to last when ESPN inexplicably axed the show a fortnight ago in favour of 'Baseball Tonight' with Buster Olney. As a result I began listening to other pods more frequently, and thought I'd write a piece in which I detail what each show has to offer...

ESPN: Baseball Tonight. Buster Olney hosts this podcast that is a basic spin-off of the nightly TV show. Olney is likeable and knowledgeable, but his speaking style is a bit awkward. This tends to be compounded by the fact he is forced to host by himself, and so has to fill the gaps between pre-recorded interviews with facts and news that could be found online or indeed on TV. If you want a 30 minute round-up of the news then Baseball Tonight is probably perfect, but it lacks charisma and personality and doesn't leave you wanting more. Whereas Baseball Today showed an openness or indeed a preference towards sabermetrics and other types of advances thinking, Baseball Tonight has a greater emphasis on traditional metrics and straight reporting.

Fangraphs Baseball. Much like it's website, the Fangraphs podcast is professional and interesting. Carson Cistulli's style takes a bit of getting used to, as his stop-start manner of speaking can sometimes mask his genuinely quick wit. The pod meanders a lot, but there is a stronger focus on sabermetrics and it's an intelligent view at news and stats. Probably not the best pod to jump straight into without any baseball knowledge, but it's got a lot to offer for the baseball fan.

Baseball America Podcast. Tends to be pretty hit and miss. Some of their shows have me gripped and enthralled, but a lot of them focus more on college baseball which doesn't interest me so much. They focus more on prospects than news and activities, but baseball fans who want to learn more will find this is a podcast that knows what it's talking about.

The Baseball Show with Rany & Joe. On the recommendation of other writers I gave this show a listen despite the fact it hasn't aired for four months now. The two hosts have a good deal of chemistry, and that is often the most important thing in a podcast. More simple view of baseball than the two pods listed above, but an easy listen and plenty of substance to keep you interested. Probably the strongest replacement for Baseball Today that I've found so far.

ESPN: Fantasy Focus Baseball. A guilty pleasure, if you will. The pod focuses solely on fantasy baseball, but is a thoroughly enjoyable listen. Matthew Berry knows his stuff, but has a tendency to ramble and I can see why some people find him annoying. Nate Ravitz is the underrated host who does a good job reigning Berry in and keeping the show on track. Full of cliquey jokes and probably takes a couple of episodes to get used to, but it makes me giggle.

CBSSports.com Fantasy Baseball Today. Another fantasy pod, this time from the boys at CBS. A dizzying number of people on the pod, some of whom don't have particularly pleasant voices, but they're interesting and knowledgeable on the whole. Chemistry between them isn't superb, but is good enough to keep you entertained whilst maybe teaching you a bit about fantasy players.

The Bases Loaded Podcast. A baseball pod produces by Brits?! I was a little wary when I first downloaded the podcast that it would be underwhelming but found myself pleasantly surprised. They've only produced one show so far, and whilst it battled severe sound quality issues (I genuinely couldn't hear half of the guests - and not just because of the Glaswegian accents!) it contained enough analysis and substance to keep me interested. If they can sort the sound issues out then this could be a successful show, which would be fantastic given it's produced by a bunch of fans living in the UK.


There are of course, a number of other podcasts available on iTunes or indeed by searching online. I suggest you download as many as possible, give them a listen and decide which ones you like and which ones you don't as my tastes will likely vary wildly from yours. In the mean time, I hope ESPN is able to come back to it's senses and resurrect the Baseball Today podcast, if only so I can get my daily fix of Keith Law!

Why the Cincinatti Reds are right to move Aroldis Chapman to the rotation

At the end of last season, all the talk in baseball surrounded the Nationals decision to shut down Stephen Strasburg. Baseball writers, managers and fans all weighed in with their views, which basically weighed up the advantages of protecting a young pitcher's reconstructed elbow with the disadvantages of crippling the post-season chances of the Washington Nationals. For the record, I agreed with the decision of Nats GM Mike Rizzo, but that is a discussion for a different day. The reason I bring this debate up, is because it's equivalent in the pre-season is the Reds decision to move Chapman from the bullpen to the rotation. The debate has not been as heated as the Strasburg debate was, at least not yet, but as opening day approaches, the arguments are gathering momentum.

In 2012, Aroldis Chapman was good. In fact, he was historically good. He had always had the 100mph+ fastball that made fans stay to the end, but he began to perfect the finer arts of pitching, notably location. In 2011 he walked 41 batters in 50 innings, which contributed to a good-but-not-great 1.30 WHIP. In 2012, he walked just 23 guys in 71.2 innings, and although the hit rate remained remarkably consistent, he was able to transform his WHIP to an other-wordly 0.81. Quietly, he and Craig Kimbrel delivered two of the greatest closer seasons of all time. He struck out a ridiculous 122 hitters on his way to a 1.51 ERA and 38 saves, despite spending the first month of the season as the 8th-inning man. There's no question, he was one of the most dominant relief pitchers in baseball last season, which of course begs the question - if it ain't broke, why fix it?

The answer is, in my opinion, perfectly simple. As a reliever, Chapman's effectiveness is limited by the number of innings he pitches. Chapman pitched 71.2 innings in 2012, or in other words, he retired 215 batters. If he became a starter, he would pitch (perhaps not this year, but at some stage you'd like to think) up to 210 innings. 210 innings is, conveniently, almost three times as many as he threw in 2012. He would retire three times as many hitters, and for that reason would be so much more valuable. Yes, of course his WHIP and ERA would probably take a hit as a result of his need to dial back the fastball in order to pitch up to 100 times in an outing, but the simple fact is that starters are always more valuable than relievers, if they can successfully make the transition.

Some relievers don't have the stuff to be effective starters, but in short bursts can be successful out of the bullpen. Of course, some people believe this could be the case with Chapman. There's no doubt about it, he'll need to make adjustments. There's no chance he could throw 100mph more than 30 times in a game, and so he'll need to dial down the velocity and pitch closer to 95mph. He also threw his fastball 88% of the time according to baseball reference, and he'll have to change that once he's pitching at a velocity hitters can actually see. But any argument that Chapman doesn't have the stuff to be a starter is foolish. He started for Cuba for several years (and successfully too) before defecting to the US. He was the Reds best starter in Spring Training last year (even if it was only Spring Training) and it's easy to overlook the fact he has an excellent slider, made more effective by his fastball. He's re-introduced a splitter to his arsenal, and catcher Miguel Olivo was impressed by his change-up in pre-season work. There are bound to be growing pains, particularly concerning the increased workload. Chapman was forced to take 10 days off his throwing programme at the back-end of last season due to arm tiredness, and these kind of problems are likely to be exacerbated by a heavy workload. But there's no doubt in my mind that Chapman provides much more value to the Reds in the rotation than in the bullpen if he can be effective.

One point that is bizarrely being used as a reason not to move Chapman is that he has proven he has the mental toughness to handle the ninth inning. This idea is absurd on two counts. The first is the idea that pitching in the ninth inning is for some reason more difficult than any of the other eight innings in baseball. The role of closer itself goes against everything we know in baseball (that's a post for another time), and even if being a closer involved some sort of special trait, the Reds possess one of these rare breeds of pitchers who don't crumble in the 9th inning in the form of Jonathan Broxton who has 111 career saves to his name. If Chapman is able to successfully transition to the rotation, he becomes a pitcher who is three times more valuable for the Reds. If he is not, then they can move him back to the bullpen next season. It can be argued that with the Reds in contention now, it is not a time to be messing about stretching out Chapman's arm, as he can provide immediate value in the 'pen. But the Reds have been set up to contend for several years, and whilst they may not get the immediate returns in 2013, he'd become immeasurably more valuable as a starter in years to come.

Put simply, this is a gamble the Reds have to try on the decent chance that it pays off. Chapman will likely post an average stat-line this season, with an elite strikeout rate, but some trouble keeping the ball in the park (a problem that may be more poignant at GABP). However, he will become a better pitcher as he learns the trade, and with the raw stuff he has, he may become a Cy Young contender in future seasons - something that will be impossible whilst he is restricted to 70 innings in the bullpen. Chapman was paid by the Reds to become a starter, and whilst this move by GM Walt Jocketty is bold, it is necessary and correct.

Fantasy: Pitchers to Avoid

Of course fantasy busts are not limited to hitters. The guys standing 60 feet away tend to be more prone to lengthy injuries, and can suffer shocking form swings from year to year (see Romero, Ricky). Who do I fancy suffering a loss of form this season?

Starting Pitchers - Jered Weaver, Gio Gonzalez, Chris Sale, Doug Fister and Matt Harvey

Jered Weaver is an ace; there is no denying that. The only reason he places in my list is the rank he is given. He is being taken around 7th or 8th for starting pitchers, sometimes higher, and I don't think he gives good value from that position. The main reason for that is his strikeout trend. Weaver struck out 142 hitters last year, which, whilst impressive, does not come close to matching those of the other aces. When Weaver is being taken before 200-strikeout guys like Hamels, Greinke and Lee I think he is being overrated. One reason he is ranked so highly is because you are paying for wins which, as we know, is impossible to guarantee. Sure he won 20 games last year and 18 the year before, but a regression towards 15 or even 12 is always possible, even with a line-up as potent as the Angels' behind him. He's a fly-ball pitcher which works in his favour at a large ballpark in Anaheim and with arguably the finest defensive outfield in baseball backing him up (Trout, Bourjos, Hamilton) so I don't think he'll struggle to get outs. I just think strikeouts are important when drafting your ace.

Gio Gonzalez took a huge step forward in 2012, improving his strikeout rate but more importantly reducing his walk rate. The former can be attributed to the move to the NL, whilst the latter is the main reason he was so successful. His walk rate of 9.3% is not superb, and is the main reason why I still have doubts, but the 207 strikeouts in 199 innings are legitimate. The other reason Gio looks set for regression is his home run to fly ball rate which was lower than should be expected in 2012, particularly given Nationals Park is not a pitchers haven. Gio will give you 200 K's and likely greater than 15 wins considering his team, but I expect a regression in his ERA and WHIP and so would warn you to stay away when pitchers like Bumgarner and Darvish are still available.

My concerns regarding Chris Sale almost entirely surround his health. He has a pitching motion that Keith Law described as 'the worst arm action on any big-league starter right now' and I'm concerned that he could break down at any moment. He was almost forced to move back to the bullpen early in 2012, and he was forced to miss a start with elbow soreness last year too. I think these kind of issues will plague Sale's entire career, and the possibility at DL time is stronger for him than any other starter. If you're willing to put up with that kind of risk then he's a good bet for strikeouts, decent WHIP and a strong ERA. I'm just too concerned that injuries are going to plague him.

Doug Fister is actually an underrated pitcher in my opinion, but talent on the mound does not equal talent in the fantasy world. Fister exhibits superb control, which means he has a sterling 1.79 walks per nine rate in his career. However, his stuff relies on sink, and as such he is not a big strikeout pitcher (somewhere around 150 K's would seem to be a good projection). His extreme ground-ball rate means that he should avoid giving up homers and keep his ERA in check but Detroit's woeful infield defense means his ERA and WHIP won't be as great as they should be. He might be more reliable over the course of the season than battery-mate Scherzer, but it's obvious which of the two has greater upside.

There's no doubt in my mind that Matt Harvey is set for a long and profitable major league career, but don't buy too much into his superb start with the Mets last season (including an electrifying debut). There is no doubt that he has fantastic stuff (just check out this fastball) but regression is sure to be in order. He has some control issues that need to be ironed out, and his 3.68 ERA and 1.31 WHIP from AAA last season show a stat line he is likely to normalise towards. He took Major League hitters by surprise with his devastating fastball/slider combination last season, but they will adapt quickly, so for every 6 inning, 1 run, 10 strikeout start he provides, there'll be a 4 inning, 6 run outing to go with it. If you're in a dynasty league, he's worth the hype, but I think he's being overrated in re-draft leagues.

Relief pitchers - Rafael Soriano, Joel Hanrahan and Ryan Madson

There's no doubt about it, Rafael Soriano is a highly talented relief pitcher who deserves a shot at the closer role for a contender having played second fiddle to Mariano Rivera for several seasons. However, you'd be foolish to think that Soriano is an elite closer. His K rate is actually worse than most major 9th inning men, although at around one strikeout per inning it is not woeful. His command in general is also far from elite, and I don't expect him to keep his ERA way below 3, so considering he's one of the first relievers off the board I'm leaving him alone.

Joel Hanrahan was traded to the Red Sox during the off-season, which in typical east-coast bias fashion meant he suddenly became more fantasy relevant. Hanrahan has been a closer for a couple of years now, but after a superb 2011 season, he regressed slightly last year although 36/40 for save chances is still elite. He'll strikeout hitters at a rate around 1 per inning, but last season control issues reared their head as he walked hitters at a rate worse than 4.5 per 9 innings. Moving to Fenway may give him a few more chances (but this is debatable) but the ballpark is definitely not going to help his WHIP or ERA and with a healthy Andrew Bailey breathing down his neck, Hanrahan may not have a long leash at all.

Finally, Ryan Madson will be the closer for the Angels this season after spending 2012 off the mound recovering from Tommy John Surgery. He was effective with the Phillies in 2011, but again his K rate is around 1 per inning which is fine, but not elite. His control is his greatest asset, but I have concerns about whether he'll miss enough bats to be effective for the Angels. With Ernesto Frieri so effective for large parts of last season, and Madson possibly missing the first couple of weeks of the season he may find himself consigned to a role that doesn't involve the 9th inning. He's high risk, and I'm not sure the reward would justify it.

Fantasy: Hitters to Avoid

Adrian Gonzalez. Jacoby Ellsbury. Tim Lincecum. Hunter Pence. Dan Haren. Eric Hosmer.

Nope, it's not just a typical game of 'name a random baseball player', but rather how your first six picks in a 2012 fantasy draft could have looked if you'd gotten it all wrong. It's human nature to forgot our mistakes ("A-Gon was a first round pick?!" "No-one took Pence that high did they?!") but using simple logic you can work out that for every player that performs above his expectations, there will be another player performing below expectations. These are the guys you want to avoid on draft day, the dreaded 'busts'. Sometimes it can be down to injury, other times horrible performance drop-offs. Who are the guys to stay away from this year?

Catcher - Victor Martinez

This prediction has a pretty good chance of backfiring, considering the fact that Martinez will be batting 5th in the Tigers line-up, behind perennial all-stars Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. I just think Martinez is too high up on draft boards considering he hasn't swung a bat since 2011. Before his injury, he was an absolute lock for a .300 average, 10-20 homers and in this Tigers line-up he could well cruise to 100 RBI. Whilst the injury shouldn't impact his contact ability, and it appears he will be spending all his time in the DH role, I think there is considerable risk both for re-injury and for regression. He is, by all means, a viable fantasy starter, but his current ranking in the top five catchers by many people seems too high.

First base - Albert Pujols

Well if you're going to go out on a limb, you may as well make it a big limb. Pujols is considered by many if not all to be the number one first baseman available, and that is what I have an issue with. Pujols had a disastrous April last season, but turned it around and ended up logging his typical stat-lines - 30 homers, 100 RBI and a .285 average. However, he was forced to make adjustments. Pujols bat speed has decreased, and as a consequence he is being forced to start his swing earlier. He's a good enough hitter that bad pitches will still be punished, but his traditionally elite eye at the plate (92 walks was his lowest mark between '05 and '10) will start to suffer and he'll strikeout a fair bit more. This of course, will lead to a drop off in average; I think somewhere between .280 and .290 can be expected. He'll probably hit 30 home runs, but again the days of pushing 40 are in the rear-view mirror. He's a fine fantasy option, but I'm leaving him alone in the first round and drafting someone with more upside and reliability.

Second base - Jason Kipnis

Kipnis got off to an absolute flyer in 2012, stealing 20 bases from his first 21 attempts. In the second half of the season, however, he began to slow down, both at the plate and on the bases. He's a category filler, as he has 20-homer potential with the bat, and 30-steal potential with his legs, and those are the kind of stats that are hard to find at second base. If you're league counts walks or OBP then he becomes a good performer there too, as his 10% walk rate attests to. However, his .257 average ended as a bit of an eyesore, and his second half performance comes as a concern. If he falls down draft boards then he is well worth a flyer, but at his current ranking I think you'd be better off with Zobrist or Brandon Phillips.

Third base - Hanley Ramirez

Hanley is eligible at both third base and shortstop this season, and whilst he'll likely provide more value at shortstop I'm listing him as my 'bust' at third base. With Ramirez you're simply drafting for something we haven't seen since 2010. After posting excellent stats in the average category during his first few seasons in the Majors, his ability to get the ball in play has collapsed since then, with a .243 and .257 average in the pst two seasons respectively. Ramirez's speed has also become less of a factor, with his 50 steal seasons in '06 and '07 now firmly in the past. His power is unlikely to play up at Dodger Stadium, and whilst he did play better there than at Marlins Stadium I think his likely slash-line will be something like .260/.320/.430 with 20 homer and 20 steal ability. He's still a fine option either at third or short, but don't kid yourself that he'll provide value anywhere near the third round where he's being drafted this year.

Shortstop - Starlin Castro

Some appear ready to suggest Castro is primed for a jump into the top tier of shortstops and maybe even become number one. Having played in the Majors for three years now, it's easy to forget that Castro is just 22 years of age, and likely only starting to scratch his power potential. Whilst I think Castro is improving, and that he is destined to be the number one shortstop in fantasy in the coming seasons, I don't think that season is now. After posting an average above .300 and an OBP above .340 in both of his first two season, Castro actually took a step back last season with an average at .283 and OBP at .323. He continued to show improvements in power, with 14 home runs, and I think he could 20 home runs at his peak. The speed continues to be a big part of his game, with 25 steals last season, although being thrown out 13 times is not impressive, and he came under stick from his own manager at times for bone-headed play on the bases or in the field, suggesting he may not get the green light as frequently. He should hit for .280 with the possibility for .300 or .310, but his plate discipline suggests a run at the batting title is unlikely to be imminent. And whilst 15 homer and 25 steals are fine production at the position, I think you can find that kind of value several rounds later in the form of Ian Desmond. Certainly he does not deserve to go at the same time as Jose Reyes, so I'd suggest avoiding him and allowing someone else to take on the hype.

Outfield - Josh Hamilton, Curtis Granderson and Desmond Jennings

Josh Hamilton was one of the nicest surprises in fantasy land last season, as he lived up to his billing as a devastating power hitter, slugging 43 homers and managing to stay healthy for (almost) the whole season. The move to Anaheim has boosted his stock in some ways (hitting behind Trout and Pujols never hurt anyone) but reduced it in others (Angel Stadium is a hitters park, compared to the sluggers paradise in Arlington). But what concerns me the most is the way Hamilton finished in Texas. He hit just 16 homers after the all-star break, compared to 27 before it and saw a worrying fall in his walk rate coincide with an increase in strikeout rate. After putting together three consecutive seasons with strikeouts below 100, Hamilton struck out an eye-opening 162 times in 2012. He was able to hit for a .285 average, and with more walks then ever before but there are so many concerns. I think the average will plummet to somewhere around .260-.270, and whilst there's no holding back that power, injury issues remain a concern for Hamilton. He could repeat 2012 and make me look silly, but I'm avoiding him in the first few rounds if I can.

I have never been a big Curtis Granderson fan, which may explain partly why I'll be staying well away from him in drafts this season, but the stats are there to back me up. Granderson's value is no secret. He uses the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium to his advantage more than anyone else in the league, and subsequently is an annual threat for 40 homers. He has also proved remarkably durable in centre-field throughout his career, despite putting significant demands on his body. The reason I'm so low on Granderson is the batting average and the strikeouts. Granderson has never been a contact guy, but he took that to the extreme last season, hitting for a pitiful .232. Whilst this was somewhat salvaged by his 75 walks, there is no denying that his ability to get the ball in play has severely diminished. It's possible that he bounces back a bit, but he'll have to prove he can hit breaking balls. He hit .296 off fastballs in 2012 but a laughable .175 off breaking pitches. His 195 strikeouts also challenged for the league lead. Not only that, but his speed has faded slowly but surely from his game as he stole just 10 bases last season. You're paying only for power, and for that reason I think you can do much better when he's ranked around the 40 overall mark (Matt Holliday for example).

Desmond Jennings seems to be ranked among the top 25 outfielders because of the general belief that this will surely be the year he breaks out. At least that's the only explanation I can think of, as his career high in average is .246, in home runs is 13 and in strikeouts is 120. Admittedly, Jennings does have great speed, swiping 31 bags in 33 attempts last season, but other than that he has few tools to speak of. He entered the league with 5 tool potential and it appears unlikely he'll ever be able to live up to that potential. Until he's able to hit for a .300 average with 20 home-run power and 30 steal potential I'll be leaving him well alone when he's ranked around other outfielders like Choo, Prado and Austin Jackson.

Fantasy: Pitching Sleepers

Whilst trying to predict anything has a degree of uncertainty to it, predicting which hitters will have good seasons tends to be easier than picking pitchers. This is because hitters tend to have much greater control over their stats (they can suffer from terrible BABIP luck, but over the course of 162 games, most stat-lines normalise in the end). The opposite can occur for pitchers, primarily because one of the key fantasy stats - wins - is largely determined by the run support a pitcher gets. Cliff Lee was historically unlucky last season as his 3.16 ERA and 1.11 WHIP carried him to a measly 6 wins whilst A.J. Burnett's 3.51 ERA and 1.24 WHIP were enough for 16 wins.

But of course, that won't stop me from picking guys I think provide you with value!

Starting pitchers - Stephen Strasburg, Roy Halladay, Matt Moore, Lance Lynn, Josh Beckett

What?! Stephen Strasburg?! How can he possibly be a sleeper candidate? Yes, it's true he's ranked in the top 5 of pretty much anyone's starting pitcher ranks, and it's highly likely he's off the board within the first 2 or 3 rounds. But I still think he can provide tremendous value. Last years numbers (with an innings cap) were Cy Young quality, as he won 15 games with an ERA of 3.16 and WHIP of 1.15. His 197 strikeouts came at an 11.13 K/9 rate which is the best among starters. He gave up just 136 hits but hurt himself a bit with walks. This year, the shackles are off, and if he can reduce the walks he has an excellent chance at finishing the year as the number one fantasy pitcher. Whilst it's impossible to predict wins, it's hard to imagine him struggling when he's playing for the Washington Nationals. Strasburg is rated 24th on ESPN, but I think he could return top 15 value.

Prior to 2012, Halladay was automatic. Four straight seasons of more than 17 wins, an ERA under 2.79 and WHIP under 1.15. He'd struck out more than 200 in each season, and had compiled a mind-boggling 29.3 WAR in that time. 2012 provided a bump in the road however, as injuries cost him time and he was far from dominant when on the mound. His velocity has fallen in recent years, and there are good reasons to believe his days of Cy Young calibre performance are over. However, that's not to say that Halladay has fallen from fantasy relevance. He can still be a dominant pitcher on his day, and to ignore years of outstanding production because of one injury-plagued season would be foolish. He seems to have recovered during the off-season, and if he can come anywhere close to his 2011 performance then the 76th placed ranking on ESPN will be an absolute bargain.

After an enticing couple of late-season starts for the Rays in 2011, Matt Moore was a popular name on draft day in 2012. Ultimately, his rookie season was disappointing, as his 1.35 WHIP and 3.81 ERA were underwhelming. Control issues were his downfall, as 81 free passes were issued and he pitches just one game with zero walks. However, there are plenty of reasons for optimism. His fastball velocity was just fine, and this was part of the reason he was able to strike out 175 batters in 177 innings. He was also closely monitored by the Rays, who seemingly wanted to prevent him from taking on a huge workload. This season, he may have more innings to work with, and if he can control the walks, could strike out a batter-per-inning with an ERA in the low 3's. The upside alone is reason to take him before the 87th ranking he is given by ESPN.

Lance Lynn was a pleasant surprise for fantasy players last season, especially in the first half. His 18 wins were a bolt from the blue, and he was able to strike out more than a batter per inning. Late season issues with stamina and control saw him demoted to the bullpen, but a rotation spot is his for the taking this year, especially after Chris Carpenter's setback. There are some concerns that 2012 was a fluke, particularly in the wins department (it is extremely unlikely he repeats that total), but there are plenty of causes for optimism. Lynn has turned up for Spring Training 20 pounds lighter, which should allow him to carry a heavier workload and pitch deeper into games. The K's are certainly no fluke, and whilst the ERA and WHIP levels won't be elite, he looks like he is in fantastic shape and could prove a key cog both for the Cardinals and fantasy teams. He'll be drafted around the same time as Anibal Sanchez, Jonathan Niese and Jon Lester - make sure you snap him up.

Finally we have the much maligned Josh Beckett. Beckett is believed to have been a big part of the spectacular failure of the Red Sox last year with his clubhouse antics, and his pitching struggled after a bounceback 2011. However, it is important to note that Beckett pitched a lot better when he was traded to the Dodgers. He owned a 2.93 ERA with them, and the strikeout rate was much improved. Whilst he is unlikely to repeat his 2011 success, pitching in Dodger Stadium will be a lot easier than Fenway, and the strong run support should be there. If he can continue doing what he did late in 2012, he could have real value from his ranking of 236 overall on ESPN.

Relief pitchers - Sergio Romo, Huston Street and David Hernandez

Having spent the best part of three seasons refining his craft as the best set-up man in baseball, Sergio Romo finally made the jump to closer at the end of the 2012 season and quickly established himself as one of the premier 9th inning men in the league. The Giants rolled with a 'closer-by-committee' set-up for the majority of the season, as Romo, Santiago Casilla and Javier Lopez picked up saves amongst others. In September and the post-season, Bochy began to lean towards the enigmatic Romo, and his faith was repaid as Romo was lights-out. With the departure of Brian Wilson, Romo appears to be the closer going forward, and armed with a devastating slider and immaculate control, he should be as good a bet as any to nail down any chances he is given. He'd rank easily as one of my top five closer options for this season; draft him at will.

Having spent three seasons closing out games at hitter-friendly Coors, Street made perhaps the biggest ballpark jump possible when he moved to the expansive confines of Petco Park. Street missed a month at the start of the season, and then missed six weeks in August and September. Staying healthy has been an issue for Street his entire career, but there is no doubting his stuff. He didn't blow a save all season in 2012 until the final game of the year. He had a miniscule ERA and WHIP and struck out guys at rate better than a K per inning. If Street can stay on the field he could provide top five value, so take advantage of his 17th placed rank among relief pitchers on ESPN.

Finally we come to a deep sleeper in David Hernandez. Hernandez has shown the kind of improvement that managers dream about over the past four seasons. In 2009 he had a 5.42 ERA and 1.62 WHIP, this improved to a 4.31 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 2010, then a 3.38 ERA and 1.14 WHIP as part of an impressive 2011 campaign before becoming one of the finest set-up men in baseball in 2012 as he pulled a 2.50 ERA and 1.02 WHIP on his way to 25 holds. He struck out an impressive 98 hitters in 68 innings thanks largely to his devastating slider: in 112 appearances ending in the slider in 2012, batters hit just .088 with 71 strikeouts. If you're in a league that counts holds he could be a key performer, and even if you're not then shaky early season outings from J.J. Putz could mean Hernandez is breathing down his neck for the closer job before long. Ranked 42nd among relief pitchers by ESPN, he is definitely worth a flyer at the end of drafts.

Fantasy: Hitter Sleepers

Pitchers and catchers have reported, and with them the buzz surrounding opening day is starting to increase. Of course for fantasy baseball players, the season starts well before opening day. Pretty much every fantasy site out there have their own rankings, and generally drafts will follow the rankings provided. The job of a wise fantasy player is to determine where the value lies - or in some cases doesn't lie. Fantasy is all about getting value from your draft picks.

To put this into context I'll use an example. Say you drafted both Miguel Cabrera and Chase Headley. Miguel Cabrera hit .330 with 44 homers, 139 RBI and was ranked in the top 3 of any player rater, regardless of scoring system. Chase Headley hit .286 with 31 homers and 115 RBI on his way to 14th on the ESPN player rater. Cabrera is clearly the better player. However, Cabrera was drafted in the first round of every single fantasy league. Headley would have been lucky to make a roster as his average draft position clocked in at 232.9. Cabrera is the better player, but Headley is the better value.

So who is this years Chase Headley?

Catcher - Salvador Perez

This is not the first and likely won't be the last time I mentioned this young man's name. Salvador Perez is the 22 year old catcher for the Kansas City Royals. Perez was on the periphery of the fantasy radar last season, but an injury meant he missed the start of the season and was often overlooked in drafts. Those managers canny enough to draft him or pick him up off the free agents profited. Perez hit .301 with a .328 OBP and provided a bit of pop with 11 home runs. Those stats were compiled over the course of 76 games, meaning over the course of a season Perez could have 20 home run power. Warning signs flash when you see that Perez draws few walks (just 12 last season), but his high average is fuelled by an astonishing strikeout rate. His 10.2% rate in the Majors is no fluke - it is right in line with his minor-league rate - and his 24.2% line-drive rate shows that he hits the ball often and hits the ball hard. He is listed at 6"3 and 240 pounds, so power is just starting to mature. If Perez can stay healthy, he will make an absolute mockery of his ranking as the 203rd overall player according to ESPN.

First baseman - Paul Konerko

Unlike Perez, Konerko's name is unlikely to be a trendy one on draft day. The slugger from Chicago is now 36 years old, and is surely on the back-end of his career. However, Konerko's skill set has never been one likely to regress with age. Ultimately, Konerko is unlikely to have a high ceiling, the seasons of 40 homers are probably in the rear-view mirror now but he is still an extremely reliable fantasy provider. He has hit greater than .298 and more than 26 homers each of the past 3 seasons, and he also draws a lot of walks meaning he is even more valuable in leagues that count OBP. Konerko will likely split time between first base and DH meaning injury risks should be reasonably limited. He's proved durable throughout his career, playing less than 142 games on just 2 occasions over the past 14 seasons. If he plays 150 games, he could well hit .300 with 30 home runs and 70 walks, which would be outstanding value from someone ranked 139th overall by ESPN, particular considering first base is shallower than usual this season.

Second baseman - Danny Espinosa

Traditionally, second base has been a weak fantasy position, and this year is no exception. The only complete player is Robinson Cano and he won't last past the first round. Kinsler is a bounceback candidate, but unlikely to provide value higher than the 3rd round. Guys like Zobrist or Phillips can provide reasonable all-round stats, but after that the going gets really tough. Danny Espinosa is someone I like as a late flyer, provided you have studs in other areas. Espinosa's average is a real eyesore (career average of .239), and whilst the walks are increasing there are no signs that the average is going to turn around any time soon. If you can get other high-average guys though, Espinosa can still provide real value in the counting categories. He hit 21 homers in 2011 and 17 last year, to go with 17 steals in 2011 and 20 steals in 2012. 20/20 ability is not easy to find nowadays, and playing in the vaunted Nationals line-up will help his counting stats. If you can handle an average around the .240 to .250 mark, and some deeply frustrating cold streaks, Espinosa could provide great value from his 135th overall rank on ESPN.

Third baseman - Aramis Ramirez

The 34 year old slugger is unlikely to elicit any attention on draft day, but might be a key cog in a championship-winning team. The move to Miller Park had little impact on his production, although hitting behind Ryan Braun brings obvious benefits. Power has never been hard to come by for Ramirez, but despite a down year in 2010 when he hit .241, he's kept his average above .289 in 8 of the previous 9 seasons. A .290 average and 25 home runs - where is the drawback? Well Ramirez doesn't steal many bases or draw many walks but his strikeout rate is manageable and if a few of the 50 doubles he hit last season fly over the fence (see Billy Butler 2011 and then Billy Butler 2012) then he could truly be an elite option at 3B.

Shortstop - Ian Desmond

2 for 2 for the Nationals infield. Desmond broke out in a big way last season, hitting .292 with 25 homers and 21 steals. This was despite missing 20 games that could possibly have made him one of the top options last season at SS. The average came as a bit of a surprise, but there is no reason not to think he can sustain an average around .270 or .280 with the possibility of repeating. Nationals Park is hitter friendly, so Desmond could hit 30 homers in that Nationals line-up, and the speed continues to be a surprising benefit for fantasy owners. I see a .270 average with 20 homers and 20 steals as the floor for Desmond, and you'll likely not get that kind of production from Hanley Ramirez. He's ranked 65th overall on ESPN but could easily provide value way above that ranking, especially considering the position scarcity.

Outfield - Matt Holliday, Melky Cabrera, Ichiro

Three outfielders, and hopefully a few that are spaced out in draft rankings. Matt Holliday makes the list for one simple reason: consistency. Matt Holliday has never had a batting average lower than .290. Over the last 9 years, he has never had an OBP lower than .379. He is a lock for 25-30 homers if he plays the full season, and batting third in a potent line-up should provide him with ample opportunity for RBI and runs. The only part of the scorecard Holliday won't fill up is the stolen bases department, but he is exactly the kind of player who will guide your team to a championship - let him make a mockery of his 47th overall ranking on ESPN.

Melky Cabrera certainly isn't the most popular name in the Major Leagues at the moment, when his MVP calibre season came to an abrupt halt in 2012 after he tested positive for PEDs. He served his suspension and has now signed with the potent Toronto Blue Jays. Regardless of his cheating ways, Melky was setting a hot pace in 2012, hitting .346 with 11 homers and 13 steals until his season was cut short. Whilst that inflated average will likely be unsustainable, Melky could be a good bet to hit around .300, and in the stacked Jays line-up, he could stack up some runs and steals. The 99th ranking on ESPN seems to be a little affected by the PED suspension - don't let that faze you.

Finally we finish with another veteran of the game in Ichiro Suzuki. Ichiro was having a poor season with the Mariners until he was traded to the Yankees, but after that he looked like his old self, hitting .322 with 14 steals and 5 homers in 67 games. It's unlikely he'll hit well over .322 as his speed has faded with age, but Ichiro continues to have enough skills to be fantasy relevant. The main reason he could provide value is the stadium he plays in - the short porch in right field could turn hits that would be doubles at Safeco into home runs, so don't be surprised if he's able to hit 15 home runs. Don't expect MVP calibre stats from Ichiro, but at 193rd in the ESPN rankings, he can certainly provide value.