Wednesday 20 March 2013

30 in 30: Oakland Athletics

Two teams down as we scout the AL West, and we now preview one of the biggest surprises of the 2012 season - the Oakland Athletics.

2012 Season

2012 was a fairytale year for the A's as a team that was widely billed to struggle to keep pace in the division not only kept pace, but pipped the Rangers to the finish and secured the AL West title. Despite trailing Texas  by 13 games on June 30th, they took the AL West lead on the final day. Cuban import Yoenis Cespedes had a fine rookie season, with a .292/.356/.505 triple-slash whilst Josh Reddick had somewhat of a breakout season in right field, hitting 32 home runs despite a weak .305 OBP. On the mound, the rookie combination of Parker, Milone and A.J. Griffin was excellent, whilst the bullpen was formidable with the mixture of Balfour, Cook and Doolittle doing the job at the back end of games. In the post-season they lost game five of the ALDS to the Detroit Tigers, but overall the season was a huge triumph for the low spenders on the west coast.

Off-Season

IN: Hiroyuki Nakajima, Chris Young, Jed Lowrie, John Jaso
OUT: Cliff Pennington, Brandon McCarthy, Stephen Drew, Jonny Gomes, Chris Carter

Overview: The Oakland A's will never be big spenders in the free agent market, but they always seem to draft and sign cleverly, and this off-season was no exception. Nakajima appears to be a defensive whiz who can't hit, but he was cheaply signed from Japan on the off chance it paid off. Young was spurned by the Diamondbacks, but is superb on defense and still has value with the bat. The departure of McCarthy will hurt, but the A's have the pitching depth to make up the lost innings. Overall grade: 5/10.



Projected Opening Day Line-up
PositionPlayerProjected stat line (OBP/SLG/WAR)
CFCoco Crisp.327/.392/2.2
3BJed Lowrie.344/.447/1.5
LFYoenis Cespedes.364/.515/3.3
1BBrandon Moss.335/.486/1.3
RFJosh Reddick.311/.470/2.0
DHSeth Smith.339/.447/0.8
CJohn Jaso.364/.392/2.0
2BScott Sizemore.314/.361/0.8
SSHiroyuki Nakajima.320/.366/2.1



Projected rotation
StarterPlayerProjected stat line (IP/ERA/WAR)
1Brett Anderson172/3.61/1.3
2Bartolo Colon127/4.11/1.8
3Jarrod Parker207/3.52/3.8
4Tommy Milone178/3.59/3.5
5A.J. Griffin100/3.24/1.9

Position Players

The A's broke their own mould in the 2011 off-season, spending big money (by their standards) on Cuban free agent Yoenis Cespedes. He didn't disappoint in his rookie season, and whilst there are still questions over his contact ability (102 strikeouts in 129 games) he has shown signs that the power/speed combination will make him an elite slugger. Coco Crisp will have to contend with Chris Young for the starting center field job, and whilst I expect the latter to win out, Crisp is by no means a poor player. His average has continued on a downward trend (he had a .170 and .182 average on curveballs and change-ups respectively) but he stole 39 bases and flashed a bit of power. Young spent a large part of 2012 on the disabled list, and whilst he has a poor average, he walks enough to be productive and can flash 20-30 home run power with 20 steal speed as well as elite defense.

Jed Lowrie was a recent acquisition from the rebuilding Astros, and he provides the team with infield depth and may even start the season at third base. He has struggled consistently with injuries, playing just 97 games last season, but he hit 16 home runs in that time suggesting he has power potential that few considered of him. He's a bit of an unknown commodity in terms of average, but is worth a flyer for the A's. Having bounced around the minors and different teams for several seasons, Brandon Moss was plunged into the spotlight in Oakland last year and excelled. He hit 21 home runs in 84 games, along with a .291 average and .358 OBP. I doubt he'll be able to repeat that line over the course of an entire season, but he has proven to be a nice surprise for the A's so far. Japanese import Hiroyuki Nakajima will probably get a chance at the shortstop role to start the season, but despite his elite defence he does not have great hitting abilities and may find himself supplanted by Lowrie or Sizemore to make room for Jemile Weeks. Overall, the line-up relies heavily on second-year outfielder Cespedes, and needs players like Reddick and Moss to carry on after a breakout season. It has the potential to hit a lot of home runs, even in the spacious home ball park, but the infield is a clear weakness. Overall grade: 6/10.

Pitching

This team relied heavily on rookies in the rotation last season, and it will be the same core of youngsters heading up the group this year. Brett Anderson made a highly successful return from Tommy John, with a 2.57 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 6 starts. He's not a big strikeout pitcher, but keeps the hitters off balance and uses the cavernous outfield to his advantage. Jarrod Parker was quietly excellent in 2012, garnering little rookie-of-the-year attention (ok, so Mike Trout may have been a little better) despite a 3.47 ERA and 3.7 WAR in 180 innings. He and Tommy Milone made the rookie year look simple, with the latter also using the cavernous ball park to his advantage with an extreme fly ball rate on his way to 13 wins. Bartolo Colon was actually having an excellent year until he was busted for PED usage, and in his age-39 season this may be his last hurrah.

The bullpen will likely be led by Australian fireballer Grant Balfour, who saved 24 games with a 2.53 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 2012. Behind him will be Ryan Cook, who was superb in his first full season out of the bullpen, with a 2.09 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. If he can continue his fine strikeout rate then he could become one of the game's premier set-up men. Completing the back-end trifecta is converted hitter Sean Doolittle, who found he can pitch a bit better than he can hit and subsequently became a superb left-handed option out of the 'pen for the A's. His 3.04 ERA and 1.08 WHIP were both fine marks considering it was his rookie season, and he too has an elite strikeout rate that suggests he is here to stay. Joining those three in the bullpen will be Jerry Blevins, Jordan Norberto, Pat Neshek and long-man Travis Blackley who has a superb pick-off move. The rotation will look to repeat an unlikely 2012 campaign whilst the bullpen looks to be an area of considerable strength. The pitching will certainly give the A's a chance in games, although the loss of McCarthy may prove decisive. Overall grade: 7/10.

Prospects

The farm system took a hit last year with the graduation of Milone and Parker, but the first round pick Addison Russell quickly became one of the steals of the draft as he mightily impressed in short-season ball. He is still several seasons away, and for this year it looks like Dan Straily (who led the minors in strikeouts) and Grant Green who will be ready to fill in at second base in the case of injuries or poor performances will be the main guys to step in. The farm system isn't terrible, but it needs replenishing, and for a small-market team like Oakland, this upcoming draft will be crucial. Overall grade: 3/10.

Overview

The A's were not only good in 2012, but they were unsustainably good. Even if everything goes to plan I don't see them winning 95 games again, although with Billy Beane as GM you would be a fool to bet against them. The rotation has upside, with several good young arms, whilst the line-up has plenty of sluggers who can clear the fence. However, if the sophomore arms regress a little, then the offensive deficiencies may become apparent and a lot of pressure could be on Yoenis Cespedes shoulders. This isn't a bad team, but I think a repeat of last year is out of its reach.

Prediction: 84-78

Gif to Watch

It's always worth including a cannon throw in these GIFs to watch sections, and it's Josh Reddick who provides the thrills on this occasion.


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