Assessing the early rookie of the year candidates

Following on from my posts earlier this week on early Cy Young candidates and early MVP candidates, the mini series is concluded today with a look at the excelling rookies. Once again, this isn't an exhaustive list and I'll undoubtedly miss a couple of guys, but these are some of the interesting rookies to watch in the second half...

The AL ROTY Race

The front-runner - José Iglesias

After last season's bumper AL rookie crop that included Trout, Darvish, Cespedes and Moore, this year has been a major disappointment. Some early favourites have only just been called up, in the form of Jurickson Profar and Wil Myers, but the best AL rookie so far this season, at least in terms of WAR, has been Jose Iglesias of the Red Sox with 1.6 wins. He's played in just 31 games, and so has an unsustainable .431 average in his 114 plate appearances, boosted by a .494 BABIP. He has little power or speed, and is generally viewed as a glove-first shortstop, who would probably bat 8th on most AL teams. Whilst he has been a nice surprise for the Sox this season, I don't expect him to scoop up the award come October.

Overall verdict: Unsustainable hitting has him leading crop, odds are stacked against him to keep it up.

The top prospect - Jurickson Profar

Profar finally got his much-anticipated season underway a month ago when Kinsler hit the DL, and whilst his stats have been good enough to keep him on the big league roster, they aren't quite ROTY calibre yet. The .269 average is fine, but with just one homer and one steal, he hasn't been providing much other value, and is now being played out of position in the outfield. Profar is good enough to suddenly go on a tear, as he did at AAA, but it hasn't quite been the rookie season that some expected from him so far.

Overall verdict: He may be a future star, but Profar has some way to go to secure ROTY honours.

The pitching stud - Dan Straily

The A's had a rookie-filled rotation last season, and though Straily played a part in it towards the end of the season, he was able to maintain his rookie eligibility and has been very effective so far this year for the A's. The 4.97 ERA isn't particularly impressive, but the 3.56 FIP prove he has been unlucky, whilst the 1.2 WAR leads all AL pitchers. Rangers rookies Nick Tepesch and Justin Grimm both got off to fast starts but have regressed towards the mean in recent weeks.

Overall verdict: There's no Darvish in this year's crop, but maybe a Matt Harvey type will spring from the woodwork.

The dark horse - Nick Franklin

The Mariners have a far from perfect record with young hitting prospects in recent seasons, but so far this season they have been unable to ruin Nick Franklin. The switch-hitting middle infielder has spent most of his time at second base and the .277 average with four homers and three steals have been a nice bonus for the M's. Coming into the season, a big criticism was his poor approach batting right-handed, and it appeared he may become a full-time lefty, but so far this season his .280 average with one home run against lefties suggest he may have made some adjustments. If Franklin can continue to hit around the .280 mark with some power and speed, he could be a good shot at the ROTY award.

Overall verdict: Franklin won't earn much attention in Seattle, but is quietly making up for his lost time.

The NL ROTY Race

The front-runner - Shelby Miller

Miller has been dominant for the Cardinals so far this season, with a ridiculous 2.08 ERA and a K/9 rate of over 10. His fastball has overpowered even the most hardened Major League hitters with his pinpoint control, whilst the breaking ball has drawn comparisons to fellow red-bird Adam Wainwright. The 8-4 record is worthy of a ROTY winner, and if Miller can build on this hot start to win 15 games with a sub-3 ERA, he could well be a shoo-in for the award.

Overall verdict: If Miller can keep this up, he could be in with a shot at the Cy Young, never mind ROTY

The top prospect - José Fernandez

Mike Trout had the greatest age-20 season in baseball history last season on his way to the rookie of the year and second place in MVP balloting. Fernandez is doing his best to provide a solid encore on the mound. Despite having pitched a handful of innings at a level higher than A-ball to enter the season, Fernandez has been superb, with a 3.05 ERA and more than a strikeout per inning. He doesn't have much run support or publicity, pitching on a woeful Marlins roster, but if he continues to dominate every fifth day he may begin to earn some more respect.

Overall verdict: Has been quietly superb, now can he keep it up.

The hitting stud - Evan Gattis

Seeing as the front-runner and top prospect were pitchers, I figured I would provide some balance with a hitter at this point. Gattis got off to a rip-roaring start with the Braves, and though his role has been reduced with the return of McCann and his recent struggles against right-handed pitching, he still leads NL hitters with 1.9 WAR. The .317 OBP isn't particularly impressive, but the 14 homers are, and if he can earn enough at-bats to be productive over the course of the season then he could be in with a good shot at the ROTY title.

Overall verdict: Tough class and lack of playing time may cost Gattis.

The dark horse - Yasiel Puig

Puig has set the league on fire in his first two weeks, hitting .455 with a .773 slugging over his first 17 games, and compiling an extraordinary 1.3 WAR already. He has socked six homers and stolen a pair of bases, all the while enthralling crowds with his all-out style of play. He's already drawn comparisons to Bo Jackson, and some believe he is putting in the 'Mike Trout season' for 2013. It's too early to christen him a hall-of-famer after 17 games of course, and though he has made great strides towards the ROTY title, he will have to deal with some regression (at least we think he will) and needs to stay healthy all year.

Overall verdict: Incredible start has thrown him into contention - can he keep it going?


Eight guys who are in the mix for their respective ROTY titles, and it is of course possible that the award winners aren't even in the Majors yet, with guys like Wil Myers and Oscar Taveras either just up or still in the minors. In a reverse of last season, this year's AL crop is very thin, whilst the NL is bulging with talents beyond those I've outlined, such as Hyun-Jin Ryu and Jedd Gyorko.

Assessing the early Cy Young candidates

Following on from yesterday's post on MVP candidates, today I'll present the early frontrunners for the Cy Young awards... It's worth pointing out that this is not an exhaustive list of all candidates, but a spotlight on a few of the major ones.

The AL Cy Young Race

The front-runner - Hisashi Iwakuma

It's really tough to pick a front-runner in the AL Cy Young race, because there are so many leading candidates bunched up together. Considering that Iwakuma has three more starts than Buchholz under his belt, he gets the nod, but it could easily have been the Boston ace instead. Iwakuma has been dominant since last season's all-star break, giving him nearly a full season of ace-caliber performances. His 2.06 ERA is insane, his 0.89 WHIP unsurprisingly leads the league, and the 90 strikeouts in 100 innings are very healthy indeed. I'm not sure how long he can sustain this success for, but as he continues to rack up wins, strikeouts and lower that ERA, his Cy Young credentials are only getting better.

Overall verdict: Has been dominant so far, but can he keep it up all season?

The perennial ace - Felix Hernandez

It says something of the quality of your hitting when your team has two of the top pitchers in baseball but is only 32-40. The Mariners certainly don't have the top of their rotation to blame, as Hernandez has been as good as his battery mate Iwakuma this season. It's easy to overlook how good he's been because, well, we expect it of Hernandez now, but a 2.32 ERA with 110 strikeouts in 104 innings is very special indeed. He's throwing his change-up more than ever this season, and despite the fact that it is just 3mph slower than his average fastball, it continues to be one of the most devastating pitches in the Majors. The King continues to go about his work, largely unnoticed, but it would shock nobody to see him atop the major pitching categories at the end of the season, making him a strong contender once again.

Overall verdict: Mariners woes may hold him back, but King is worthy of another Cy Young crown.

The 'where did this guy come from' - Ervin Santana

Yes, the very same Ervin Santana that allowed 39 home runs last year with a 5.16 ERA. Well, this year Santana has been outstanding with the Royals, with a 2.64 ERA and minuscule 0.98 WHIP. The 14 home runs suggest that the fly ball problem is still underlying for Santana, but he is striking out hitters at a solid rate and has dramatically reduced the walk rate from 3 BB/9 to just 1.5 BB/9. The 3.88 FIP suggests regression may be due, but regardless of how he's done it, Santana has genuinely made himself into one of the better pitchers in the AL in the first half of the season, and has earned his place on a list of Cy Young contenders.

Overall verdict: Walk and strikeout rates are promising, but how long will it be until home run problem returns?

The strikeout machine - Yu Darvish

Darvish was my early pick for Cy Young, and he has shown flashes of pure brilliance this season, as evidenced by the other-wordly 137 strikeouts in 101 innings. The 2.84 ERA is still ridiculously good, but walks have plagued him a bit, and the home runs will always be an issue in Arlington. There are few pitchers more likely to throw a no hitter this season, because when Darvish is locating his fastball, the off-speed stuff is just untouchable. If he can begin to develop any kind of consistency, then he'll push himself right to the front of the Cy Young race, although he hasn't won a game in over a month due to poor run support.

Overall verdict: Improved control has Darvish cruising into contention.

The dark horse - Anibal Sanchez

Sanchez had been an effective pitcher with the Marlins, with several seasons of mid-3 ERA's under his belt. This season, however, he has taken his game to the next step, with an outstanding 2.76 ERA and extraordinary 11.13 K/9. Perhaps most impressively, advanced metrics suggest that Sanchez has suffered from bad luck, with a ridiculous 2.06 FIP. Largely unnoticed in a rotation full of aces, Sanchez is putting together an outstanding season with Detroit, and may find himself embroiled in a Cy Young race come September.

Overall verdict: Strikeout dominance taking Sanchez into unknown territories - can he keep it up?

Notable mentions to Chris Sale, Max Scherzer and Alex Cobb who are also having outstanding seasons.

The NL Cy Young Race

The front-runner - Adam Wainwright

Again, there are so many potential front-runners, but Adam Wainwright's 10-4 record swings it, even though pitcher wins and losses are meaningless to everyone but the Cy Young voters. His 2.37 ERA isn't too bad either, and the 1.01 WHIP is fairly outstanding. Perhaps most impressive is the fact he has ceded nine (9) walks in 110 innings, which is an indicator of just how outstanding his command is. He's allowed just four home runs all season, and has struck out 100 hitters - Wainwright is truly at the top of his game as he guides the Cardinals towards a play-off berth.

Overall verdict: A dominant season from Wainwright, I'd be shocked if we weren't discussing his name in October.

The perennial ace - Clayton Kershaw

It's hard to describe just how good Clayton Kershaw is. Somehow, the Dodgers have contrived to give him just a 5-4 record on the season, because Kershaw is turning in some of the finest performances you're ever likely to see. His 1.84 ERA is stupendous, and he's striking out hitters at almost a rate of one per inning. Not only that, but Kershaw has earned a reputation for being a better second-half pitcher - his ERA might be something stupid after the all-star break. If Joey Votto has figured out hitting, then Clayton Kershaw has figured out pitching, as he no longer looks to strike hitters out, but just tries to go deep into games, saving the bullpen and being more efficient. Right now, Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball, and at 25 years of age, he might be getting better.

Overall verdict: He probably won't have a 1.84 ERA all season, but then again...

The 'where did this guy come from' - Shelby Miller

Miller was able to win a tough battle in Spring Training to earn the final spot in the St Louis rotation, and he's looked pretty good since then. The 22 year old rookie has been dominant, with just two pitches, on his way to a 2.08 ERA with 96 strikeouts in 86 innings. The Cardinals are understandably being cautious with Miller, and an innings cap of around 180 innings seems likely, but if Miller can have an ERA around 2 for the rest of the season, he might only need 180. His fastball control is equal to that of a 30 year old veteran, and even though his curveball is really his only other pitch, he has kept hitters floundering away all season.

Overall verdict: Hitters may adjust, but this has been an outstanding debut season for Miller.

The strikeout machine - Matt Harvey

Coming up through the minor leagues, scouts doubted Harvey's ability to pitch in the Majors because of a lack of a good breaking ball. His fastball and change-up were both outstanding, but his slider hadn't really developed and the curveball was a work in progress. Well, fast forward a year, and Harvey has one of the filthiest sliders in the Majors. His fastball runs up to 100mph with great life, and he complements it with a sharp 90mph slider that he throws to both right and left-handed hitters. The change-up has taken somewhat of a back-seat, but it's still a swing and miss pitch, and his 2.16 ERA with 115 strikeouts is testament to his ability. He has lost just one decision all season, although he's only won six, but his filthy stuff looks like it'll keep him in Cy Young discussions all year.

Overall verdict: Harvey is a lone bright spark in an otherwise appalling Mets roster - will he get the run support to take home a Cy Young?

The dark horse - Cliff Lee

Cliff Lee has long been one of the most underrated pitchers in the Major Leagues, and it's tough to understand why. His 2.53 ERA is outstanding, and this year he is finally getting run support, with a strong 9-2 record. Like Wainwright, he is stingy with free passes, allowing just 17 in 110 innings, but he also has good strikeout stuff, sitting down 98 hitters. Lee's name is likely to pop up consistently around the trade deadline, and a move to a contending team may boost his Cy Young prospects. With so many pitchers having break-out seasons, it's easy to forget the consistently great pitchers like Lee, but he's a definite dark horse for the Cy Young award.

Overall verdict: He might not win the award, but Lee continues to put up Cy-calibre numbers.

Notable mentions to Patrick Corbin and Jordan Zimmermann.


So, there you have it, a brief overview of the top Cy Young candidates in each league. For the record, I still believe Yu Darvish will take the AL crown, and see Clayton Kershaw taking the title in the NL.

Assessing the early MVP candidates

With over two months of baseball already in the books, now would appear to be a good time to take a look at the early season candidates for the MVP, ROTY and Cy Young awards. Of course, a lot will change between today and the end of the season, but seeing which players fizzled out over the second half will be interesting.

The AL MVP Race

Front-runner - Miguel Cabrera

After raking his way to the triple crown and subsequently the MVP award last season, Cabrera has only gone and hit even better this season, with a .358/.451/.638 triple-slash and 19 home runs. He looks like being at the heart of another triple crown race, and whilst his defensive metrics let him down a bit (-6 DRS), his offensive game is so spectacular that he has made himself the early favourite once again. It wouldn't surprise me to see him lead the league in average and RBI once again, although I think he'll be hard-pressed to win the home run crown this season. If he can end the season with a .335/.420/.600 triple-slash, he'll have surely done enough to secure back-to-back MVP awards.

Overall verdict: It's going to take some serious regression or a tough-luck injury to slow down Cabrera.

The break-out guy - Chris Davis

Not many people would have had Chris Davis on their MVP ballot to start the season, but his major-league leading 24 home runs are beginning to turn some heads. The .337 average is boosted by an unsustainable .386 BABIP, but he has reduced his strikeout percentage from 30% to 25% and boosted his walk rate from 6.6% to 11%, suggesting an average in the high .200's could be a distinct possibility. Like Cabrera, Davis doesn't gain any value from his base-running or defense, but his bat is so hot that he will be breathing down Cabrera's neck to the end. If he wants to win the MVP award, he's going to need to lead the league in homers, whilst batting .300 and taking the Orioles to another post-season. I think he's due for some regression, but Davis could yet be in the picture come October.

Overall verdict: The power is legit, but his lack of history might hold him back.

The wily veteran - David Ortiz

I spoke at length earlier in the season about Ortiz, and how I expected him to have a big year. Up until his injury last season, his numbers were on pace with Miguel Cabrera, and so far this season he has not let me down. After missing most of the first month with the lingering achilles problem, Ortiz has been furiously making up the lost ground since then, with a .299 average, .382 OBP and .599 slugging percentage as well as 14 big flies. If he can stay healthy all season, he should be a great producer in every hitting category, and whilst the early injury will hold him back in the counting stats, he will profit from a good storyline if the Red Sox make the play-offs.

Overall verdict: Early injury and lack of position will inhibit his chances.

The 5-tool youngster - Mike Trout

Some people (myself included) believe that Trout should have won the MVP award last season, but Trout has not rested on his laurels and has come back out swinging this year. The .305 average and .382 OBP are behind last season's paces, but a .330 average was never sustainable, and Trout still has time to bump it up with a monster second half. The power is once again on display, with 12 home runs, whilst his 15 steals and elite defense (despite what the defensive metrics say) in the outfield give him an added dimension that the other candidates do not possess. Trout is probably behind in the race for the award so far this season, but a big second half could propel him right back into the running.

Overall verdict: Regression from his 2012 numbers and Angels poor start leave Trout playing catch-up.

The NL MVP Race

Front-runner - Carlos Gonzalez

Unlike in the American League, there is no obvious front-runner in the NL, but largely unnoticed, Carlos Gonzalez has been putting up monster numbers for the Rockies. The .311 average is nothing beyond his capabilities, as he hit .336 in 2010 on his way to the NL batting title and has been around .300 for his whole career at Coors. His K rate is actually up from last season, at 25%, but the walk rate has been bumped up too, to 11.4%, suggesting more patience from a typically aggressive hitter. Where has has excelled this season is in the power department, with an NL leading 20 homers and .640 slugging. This is largely thanks to a titanic increase in fly-ball percentage from 30% to 42%, whilst the HR/FB rate has also increased to 25%, which isn't unsustainable at Coors. The most shocking thing, has perhaps been his road hitting ability, as the one criticism of Gonzalez had always been his inability to hit outside Coors. He's actually hitting much better on the road, with a .348 average and 11 homers, but his frailty has prevented him from playing more than 145 games before in his career. His 13 steals also make him a decent threat for a 30/30 season, although on his current paces a 40/30 season wouldn't be beyond reach.

Overall verdict: Gonzalez isn't getting the credit his season deserves, but if he stays healthy all season that should change.

The break-out guy - Paul Goldschmidt

Goldschmidt's ability to crush lefties is nothing new, but his new-found ability to crush right-handers too has turned him into one of the best sluggers in the National League. The .305/.386/.556 triple-slash is elite, and the 16 home runs put him on pace for close to 35. Goldschmidt is showing more patience than in recent seasons, and his 61 RBI lead the National League. He has cooled off a bit recently, but is still one of the best young hitters in the league and should be on for a monster season at the heart of the D-Backs line-up. He also has surprising speed for a first baseman, and could quietly steal 15 bases, further boosting his resumé.

Overall verdict: If he can guide the D-Backs into the post-season, he becomes MVP favourite.

The wily veteran - Joey Votto

Votto is the most advanced hitter in the Major Leagues, and his incredible understanding of the game combined with ridiculous hitting ability make every at-bat a fascinating spectacle. Despite the fact his walk percentage is down to 16.7%, Votto leads the majors with 53 walks and the .438 OBP is second only to Cabrera. He may never repeat the 37 homer 2010 campaign, but his 12 home runs aren't negligible, and you get the feeling he could hit 15 in a month if he really turns it on at the plate. Greatness is almost expected from Votto now, and he keeps proving that he is one of the finest pure hitters in the game. The lack of power may inhibit his MVP chances, but his ridiculous ability make him a constant candidate.

Overall verdict: Not a slugger in the usual sense, but video game numbers make him perennial candidate.

The 5-tool youngster - Jean Segura/Carlos Gomez

I've bunched these two early-season stars together, because they have comparable skill-sets and both play for the Brewers. Segura has been a revelation at short-stop this season, with a .330 average to go with 10 homers and 19 steals. He doesn't hit enough fly balls to keep up this home run pace, but the average and steals may well be legitimate, whilst his quality defense at short gives him an excellent all-round game. Meanwhile, Gomez is proving there is more than one CarGo in the MVP picture, as his .317 average is backed by 12 homers and 13 steals. He has been ridiculous on defense in center field, and if he can keep up the hot hitting, he could be a real sleeper MVP candidate considering the depth of his production. Both players are limited by the fact that the Brewers are not a competitive team, but they provide a bright future for this franchise up the middle of the field.

Overall verdict: Will need monster second-halfs to put themselves in contention, but their all-round games are very impressive indeed.

So, there you have it. A quick summation of the MVP prospects in both leagues - which guys do you fancy do still be on this list come September?

Notable mention must be given to Troy Tulowitzki, who was putting up MVP numbers until the latest in a series of injuries.