2012 Season
The Padres got off to an awful start in 2012, compiling a 20-41 record through the first 61 games, worst in the Major Leagues. However, they rebounded, and despite going 5-10 in their last 15 games, they were 42-33 after the all-star break on their way to a 76-86 record. The bright spot of the year was undoubtedly the production of third baseman Chase Headley. He finished 5th in MVP voting and won a gold-glove as part of a break-out season in which he led the NL in runs batted in. Everth Cabrera also led the NL in stolen bases, and rookie catcher Yasmani Grandal made a promising start but has since been suspended for PED usage. The rotation was a problem all season for the Padres, as they used 15 different starting pitchers, and were never able to really get any sort of consistency going.
Off-Season Moves
IN: Freddy Garcia, Tyson Ross, Cody Ransom, the Petco Park fences
OUT: Andy Parrino, Andrew Werner, Ross Ohlendorf
Overview: Overall, it was an extremely quiet off-season for the Padres. The year before they traded away star pitcher Mat Latos for a number of prospects, but this season they made few changes to the roster. Perhaps the biggest off-season move was bringing in the fences at Petco Park. The stadium had generated a reputation as an extreme pitcher park, so making it slightly smaller should allow for a bit more offensive production. Overall grade: 2/10.
| Expected Opening Day Line-up | ||
|---|---|---|
| Position | Player | Projected stat line (OBP/SLG/WAR) |
| SS | Everth Cabrera | .329/.340/1.1 |
| 2B | Logan Forsythe | .352/.376/0.7 |
| 3B | Chase Headley | .365/.454/3.9 |
| LF | Carlos Quentin | .350/.495/1.9 |
| 1B | Yonder Alonso | .360/.438/0.9 |
| RF | Will Venable | .324/.405/1.4 |
| CF | Cameron Maybin | .333/.397/2.4 |
| C | Nick Hundley | .299/.373/0.8 |
| Expected rotation | ||
|---|---|---|
| Starter | Player | Projected stat line (IP/ERA/WAR) |
| 1 | Clayton Richard | 212/3.78/1.7 |
| 2 | Edinson Volquez | 165/3.98/1.9 |
| 3 | Eric Stults | 78/3.92/0.9 |
| 4 | Anthony Bass | 132/3.61/1.0 |
| 5 | Casey Kelly | 127/4.25/1.5 |
Position Players
Chase Headley will once more be relied upon to lead this offense, and the projections seem to suggest he has a good chance to do this, even if regression is due. If he is able to get off to a hot-start I think the Padres should cash in and trade him to a contender in return for a healthy haul of prospects. Behind him Carlos Quentin will try to take advantage of the smaller dimensions and he could be an underrated player this season assuming the skills are intact. Atop the line-up, Everth Cabrera didn't have a great OBP last season (.324) but the Padres will likely take their chances that he could improve considering his elite speed.
Yonder Alonso was the top prospect the Padres received in the Mat Latos deal, but was underwhelming in his first full season, hitting 9 home runs, although the OBP gives reason for optimism (.348). If he can turn some of his 39 doubles into big flies then he could find himself with a more balanced stat line at the end of the season. Young catcher Yasmani Grandal will spend the first 50 games suspended, so Nick Hundley gets a chance to prove he's anything better than replacement level. Cameron Maybin plays elite defense out in cavernous center-field, but the bat is yet to truly arrive and he'll need to make better contact to tap in to that 40-steal potential. Overall this is a line-up of bit-part players, that has some toolsy guys but lacking an elite slugger if Headley can't repeat. There is some upside here, but it may be a few seasons until the younger guys progress when this line-up can truly excel. Overall grade: 4/10
Pitching
Richard has kept his ERA below 4 for each of the past three seasons, and last seasons 218 innings suggest he can be the workhorse the rotation needs. He gave up a worrying 228 hits, however, and whilst the walk rate was low the lack of swing-and-miss stuff suggests he may be a product of cavernous Petco Park. Eric Stults was the surprise 2012 package, as his second half performances made him the best pitcher in the San Diego rotation with an ERA under 3, although he may find himself replaced when Luebke returns. Anthony Bass was superb in the early part of the season for the Padres, with an ERA at 2.30 through the first month. However, he struggled from then onward and may be forced into the bullpen rather than rotation in 2013. Finally Casey Kelly is a high-end prospect who wasn't particularly impressive in his small taste of big league action last season, but will be hoping a full-time role in the rotation will allow him to get into a groove. He is also reportedly one of the finest fielding pitching prospects ever to play in the Major Leagues, so the athleticism on the mound may be something to look out for in the highlights.
Jason Marquis and Freddy Garcia give rotation depth, but two guys to watch will be Cory Luebke and Andrew Cashner. The former is recovering from Tommy John surgery, but is expected to play a part in the second half of the season and his performances so far in the big leagues suggest he could become a top-of-the-rotation guy for San Diego. Cashner has outstanding raw stuff, fuelled mostly by a fastball that runs into the upper-90s and beyond but has struggled with command issues and may start the season in the bullpen.
The bullpen is led by three elite relievers. Huston Street can be a dominant reliever on his day, as his 0.72 WHIP and 1.85 ERA last season attest to. His problem has always been staying healthy, which he struggled with in 2012, but if he can stay on the mound he is an elite option at the back end of games. He is ably backed up by Luke Gregerson, who shaved his ERA down to 2.39 as the eighth-inning man with a strikeout per inning and impressive 1.8 WAR tribute to his increasing success. Finally, the 32 year-old Dale Thayer was strong in his first season as a Padre, and is another good option at the end of games. Brad Boxberger was superb in his small taste of action last season, and Tom Layne will need to step up as the lefty specialist. Overall I think the rotation lacks an ace at the moment, but has a lot of depth, and if everything goes to plan it could be a strong point for the Padres. The bullpen was superb last season and will look to keep that work going in the competitive NL West. Overall grade: 6/10.
Prospects
The team has a stacked farm system, although a lot of its stars made the jump to the big leagues last season. The aforementioned Casey Kelly will get a chance to be a Major League starter and a hot Spring from Jedd Gyorko could have him forced in at second base, although there are questions surrounding his glove at that position. Other than that it is likely to be bullpen help and September call-ups for this talented system, so whilst the future is bright, it may be a few years until the young players come to fruition. Overall grade: 7/10.
Overview
There is a clear gulf in class between the Padres and the Giants/Dodgers, particularly in the line-up, and if they are out of contention in August then it would make sense for them to trade Headley and take the prospects. I like their rotation and bullpen a lot, even if the most promising players are not bookmarked to start the year in the rotation at the moment. The second half of 2012 showed what this team can do, and whilst I think they are a few seasons away from true contention, they should easily be good enough to stay above the Rockies.
Prediction: 78-84
Gif to Watch
Everth Cabrera will be given a chance at short-stop everyday because of his electric speed and plus defense. This gutsy steal of home when Kenley Jansen was napping led to a pair of San Diego runs and shows the impact he can have when on the bases (also check the umpire calling him out).
The other play to watch is this remarkable defensive effort to rob Justin Upton. Unfortunately I couldn't find the GIF!
Gif to Watch
Everth Cabrera will be given a chance at short-stop everyday because of his electric speed and plus defense. This gutsy steal of home when Kenley Jansen was napping led to a pair of San Diego runs and shows the impact he can have when on the bases (also check the umpire calling him out).
The other play to watch is this remarkable defensive effort to rob Justin Upton. Unfortunately I couldn't find the GIF!
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