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Pittsburgh Pirates (98-64)
Expected Opening-Day Line-up
| No. | Name | Position | Projected 2016 AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | John Jaso | 1B | .270/.361/.425 |
| 2 | Andrew McCutchen | CF | .293/.392/.493 |
| 3 | David Freese | 3B | .249/.318/.379 |
| 4 | Starling Marte | LF | .278/.334/.444 |
| 5 | Francisco Cervelli | C | .274/.352/.378 |
| 6 | Gregory Polanco | RF | .254/.317/.389 |
| 7 | Josh Harrison | 2B | .282/.321/.418 |
| 8 | Jordy Mercer | SS | .254/.303/.365 |
Expected Opening Day Rotation
| No. | Name | Projected 2016 Innings/Strikeouts/ERA |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francisco Liriano | 167/175/3.19 |
| 2 | Gerrit Cole | 190/180/3.08 |
| 3 | Jon Niese | 158/105/4.05 |
| 4 | Jeff Locke | 163/123/4.15 |
| 5 | Juan Nicasio | 102/86/3.98 |
The Pirates line-up has a new face leading off this season in converted catcher John Jaso, who has lost all defensive value and would likely be better used as a DH in the AL but remains a consistent masher of right-handers. His walk rate is elite, and he makes enough hard contact to hit .270 or higher. He'll be a great option against right-handers on the fat side of a platoon with Mike Morse. McCutchen took a slight step back in 2015 but remains one of the best outfielders in the Majors, with elite contact skills, great walk rates and some declining but still lethal power/speed skills. David Freese will fill in for the injured Jung-Ho Kang to start the year and he has proven himself an average performer at third base, both offensively and defensively, although number three in the line-up feels about four spots too high. Starling Marte was one of the best players in baseball through two months of the 2015 season but his power regressed and his walk rate remains minuscule which holds him back from being an all-round player. 15 home runs and 30 steals seems likely, but unless he changes approach he might never be the player he looked like last April.
Francisco Cervelli is one of the darlings of the pitch-framing metrics but almost all of his value with the bat is driven by his ability to hit for average, which as a slow runner with average strikeout rates feels unsustainable. He draws enough walks and has just enough pop to be an above average offensive catcher anyway, and with his defense he's a solid option behind the plate for the Bucs. Gregory Polanco hasn't really lived up to his top-prospect status yet in the big leagues, but with a sweet left-handed swing, great defense and blazing speed he wouldn't need to improve his approach much to turn into a four-win player. Josh Harrison is a contact-first option at second base who is as good a bet as any to hit at least .290 and he has enough power and speed to be a solid offensive midle infielder. Jordy Mercer by contrast has shown almost nothing with the bat, and will likely lose playing time upon the return of Kang. Overall, this line-up has some decent upside, especially in the outfield, but relies more on speed than power which could work considering the reasonable contact options they have. It won't lead the Majors in run manufacturing but in the NL it is better than most.
The rotation will be led by a solid 1-2 combination in Liriano and Cole. Liriano's career turnaround is a fantastic story, and yet another incredible reclamation job by fabled Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage. Liriano racks up strikeouts with his devastating slider and also induces groundballs at a solid clip. The walks and hits are generally pretty high, but he has improved his control enough to be a front-of-the-rotation option. Cole is a legitimate ace, and has been pretty much since his first week in the league, with two plus pitches that provide plenty of strikeouts and measly walk rates. He's a stud. Jon Niese struggled in New York last year, and whilst he's a decent workhorse he doesn't offer much upside as his strikeouts continue to decline. Jeff Locke gets tons of groundballs but also strikes almost no-one out, so whilst his floor is reasonably high, his ceiling is not much better. Juan Nicasio had a storming Spring after a solid year in relief with LA last year, and appears to have earned himself a rotation spot at least to start the year. If the strikeout numbers from Spring can hold up, he could be a really nice lottery ticket option for Pittsburgh. ZiPS doesn't project the back three to have big workloads which may be because of the impending return of Jameson Taillon from Tommy John surgery and the meteoric rise through the minor leagues of Tyler Glasnow, both of whom could contribute in the second half of the season.
Mark Melancon has been worth six wins over the past three years, making him one of the most consistently productive relievers in the Majors, although he has seen a slight decline in effectiveness, especially strikeout-wise. His proclivity towards ground balls means any reduction in results will be limited, and considering how fantastic he has been he would have to fall a long way to lose the closer's job. Tony Watson is the top left-hander and has been an underrated workhorse for this pen, racking up over 220 innings over the previous three seasons with consistently great results. Mid-season acquisition Neftali Feliz has reduced effectiveness than when he burst into the Majors as a flame-throwing rightie but he should be good for some solid innings of relief, whilst Arquimedes Caminero has a devastating fastball to go with his wonderful name. Corey Luebke is a wonderful story after several years out of the game, and so hopefully will be able to stay healthy and productive this season. It's not a lights-out bullpen, but it has several quality workhorses who will provide important late-game innings.
2016 Projection
The Pirates have a talented roster, although the 98 wins from a year ago feels like an anomaly. The line-up is anchored by McCutchen who will receive able support in the outfield and across the diamond, although the return of Kang will be important as the left side of the infield is unlikely to be particularly productive. Big seasons in the development of Marte and Polanco would be very useful, although even in their current iteration they are extremely valuable outfielders. The rotation is ably led by Cole and Liriano, and although the back-end lacks upside the groundball tendency of these starters means they should at least be able spot-fillers until the prodigious talents of Glasnow and Taillon arrive. The bullpen has some quality arms at the top end, and although any group with Ryan Vogelsong in is unlikely to turn many heads, it will be a more than capable squad for the Buccos this season. Overall, this is a team with tons of talent, especially on the mound, and in an easier division it would be hard to see past them. As it is, they are going to have to repeat their success of last season just to confirm a wildcard spot.
Projected record: 93-69
Cincinnati Reds (64-98)
Projected Opening Day Line-up
| No. | Name | Position | Projected 2016 AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zack Cozart | SS | .247/.287/.379 |
| 2 | Eugenio Suarez | 3B | .254/.311/.415 |
| 3 | Joey Votto | 1B | .286/.429/.486 |
| 4 | Brandon Phillips | 2B | .270/.309/.376 |
| 5 | Jay Bruce | RF | .244/.311/.444 |
| 6 | Devin Mesoraco | C | .243/.320/.421 |
| 7 | Adam Duvall | LF | .239/.288/.457 |
| 8 | Billy Hamilton | CF | .250/.299/.340 |
Projected Opening Day Rotation
| No. | Name | Projected 2016 Innings/Strikeouts/ERA |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raisel Iglesias | 133/127/3.79 |
| 2 | Anthony DeSclafani | 178/146/3.79 |
| 3 | Brandon Finnegan | 91/91/3.79 |
| 4 | Alfredo Simon | 156/90/4.91 |
| 5 | Robert Stephenson | 127/127/5.27 |
The rebuilding Reds have a line-up lacking on household names, and their lead-off guy Zack Cozart is unlikely to turn many heads this season. He showed decent power before getting injured in 2015, and if he can sustain that power spike he could at least have some pop from the middle infield but he remains a below-.300 OBP liability. Eugenio Suarez actually has a similar skill set, with some power and speed but poor contact skills and nowhere near enough walks to make up for it. Joey Votto had a monster 2015 campaign and will likely walk his way to a similar stat-line in 2016. Phillips and Bruce are two ageing veterans who have seen a decline in recent seasons, but they still have some value - Phillips through his contact and speed, and Bruce through his raw power, albeit with some considerable strikeout issues. Mesoraco had a breakout 2014 campaign but missed almost all of last season with a hip injury. If he can prove that 2014 was not a fluke he could be in for a monster year. Duvall has huge raw power, mashing 25 home runs in the Minors last year but in limited Major League action he has shown a propensity for striking out too much. Billy Hamilton continues to infuriate, putting the ball in the air far too much for a player with his power but his speed and defense makes him irreplaceable in the line-up; if he could hit a few more ground-balls he could be a real offensive force.
The rotation is led by two exciting young starters in Iglesias and DeSclafani. Both right-handers showcased impressive strikeout stuff over the last few months of 2015 and enter the season with serious breakout potential. Iglesias works several arm slots with different breaking balls and so gets a lot of punchouts despite mediocre velocity whilst DeSclafani has a hard fastball and two plus breaking pitches in a slider and curveball. If they can stay healthy they could be pleasant surprises for this pitching staff. Brandon Finnegan arrived in the Johnny Cueto deal last season and is being used as a starter by Cincinnati where his has plus stuff if not the control to be a refined Major League pitcher yet. As long as his development continues upwards, the results aren't too important at his age. Alfredo Simon struggled in Detroit last season and returns to the spot where he had his magical 2014 campaign, although at this point innings-eating is all that will be required of him by the Reds. Robert Stephenson is a big-time pitching prospect who has strikeout stuff and ace potential if he can improve the command and control Like Finnegan, small steps in the right direction is all that will be required in his first taste of Major League action. It's a rotation with considerable upside, but likely at least two years from it's peak, and so this year will be all about upside with flashes of brilliance likely dampened by maddening inconsistency. For a rebuilding team, this is a nice young staff though.
The departure of Aroldis Chapman has opened up the ninth inning job and it appears that to start the season J.J. Hoover will fill that role. Hoover has been a solid reliever for the Reds since 2013 but he remains a fly-ball pitcher who gives up a lot of home runs, especially in the band-box at Great American Ball Park. He doesn't strike many guys out, he walks too many and it would be shocking if he manages to keep the closer's job all season. Jumbo Diaz gives up too many home runs too, but at least strikes guys out with his high-velo fastball so he could be a late-game option whilst starter-turned-reliever Tony Cingrani appears likely to be the primary left-handed hurler armed with a live fastball but poor control. Those guys aside there is little else in the bullpen, Dan Straily and Ross Ohlendorf are reasonable swing-men, but this is a relief corps that has little in the shutdown department and could potentially blow quite a few games this year, assuming Cincinnati has the lead.
2016 Projection
This is a team in rebuild mode, and with a youthful, high upside starting rotation there is cause for optimism for Reds fans. The line-up has a few hard-hitting veterans left in it, notably Votto, Phillips and Bruce, but it is going to struggle to get on base at a decent clip with some OBP-vacuums at the top and bottom of the line-up. Billy Hamilton will be exciting to watch, and Robert Stephenson's starts will be intriguing for any Reds fan, but this is a team that is built with 2018 in mind, and there could be a huge deadline day sale of talent which would see this team go from mediocre to awful. In a tough division, the Reds will be competing with the Brewers to avoid the wooden spoon.
Projected record: 65-97
St. Louis Cardinals (100-62)
Projected Opening Day Line-up
| No. | Name | Position | Projected 2016 AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Carpenter | 3B | .272/.362/.442 |
| 2 | Matt Adams | 1B | .272/.308/.433 |
| 3 | Matt Holliday | LF | .268/.358/.430 |
| 4 | Randal Grichuk | CF | .253/.298/.462 |
| 5 | Stephen Piscotty | RF | .272/.333/.425 |
| 6 | Yadier Molina | C | .279/.323/.382 |
| 7 | Kolten Wong | 2B | .261/.313/.389 |
| 8 | Jedd Gyorko | SS | .251/.305/.409 |
Projected Opening Day Rotation
| No. | Name | Projected 2016 Innings/Strikeouts/ERA |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adam Wainwright | 156/126/3.12 |
| 2 | Michael Wacha | 154/137/3.51 |
| 3 | Carlos Martinez | 173/167/3.34 |
| 4 | Jaime Garcia | 93/72/3.40 |
| 5 | Mike Leake | 177/114/3.77 |
The Cardinals line-up has a slightly different look this season with the departure of Jason Heyward, but Matt Carpenter remains a fixture at the top. His game took on a new dimension last season, as he added power (albeit at the expense of a spike in strikeout rate), but his elite walk rate remains the same and he will be one of the best lead-off men in the Majors once again in 2016. Matt Adams may be running out of chances to prove that his short bursts of power aren't just mirages, as his line last season was disappointing and Piscotty may steal some starts at first base. Holliday was the model of consistency for about 10 years before injuries derailed him in 2014 and 2015, but if he returns to form he'll be a huge boost for this offense. Grichuk and Piscotty are young players with huge upside - Grichuk has 30-homer power whilst Piscotty makes tons of contact and could post a .360 OBP if everything goes well. Molina will look to stave off old age for one more season, whilst Kolten Wong will try to correct the inconsistency from 2015 although he has easy 15/15 ability. Gyorko has a chance to impress at shortstop whilst Peralta is injured, but he is unlikely to play himself into much playing time, despite impressive power.
The rotation is bolstered by the return of Wainwright who suffered a devastating achilles injury in May last year but was able to expedite the rehab process and even pitch for the Cardinals in October. Back as the workhorse now, his stuff was never overpowering but might take another tick down as he heads into his mid-30's, but ZiPS likes a big season assuming he can stay healthy. Wacha stayed healthy in 2015 and put up an impressive season until he collapsed in September, but assuming his shoulder is fine he'll look to ride his change-up to another useful season in the Cards rotation. After struggling to start the season, Martinez exploded in 2015, pitching to a sub 2.20 ERA over his last 25 or so starts, and although being shut down at the end of the year was troubling there is no reason to think he isn't healthy once again to start 2016.
Jaime Garcia was a wonderful story in 2015 as years of injury to his shoulder, elbow and just about anything that could require surgery were rolled back as he rode five pitches to a bunch of strikeouts and groundballs. When healthy, his effectiveness is unquestioned but staying on the field has always been tricky. Mike Leake got an $80m contract over the off-season for basically staying healthy and throwing average innings with the Reds. He strikes no-one out, but he doesn't walk many either and generates ground balls which limits the home run tendency his fastball has. He's boring, but he's a perfect number five starter. There is some health concern for this bunch, as you can see from the ZiPS projections, but Marco Gonzales and Tyler Lyons provide depth for a staff that when healthy is one of the best in the league.
The bullpen is punctuated by Trevor Rosenthal, the 25 year old flame thrower who has racked up 93 saves over the past two seasons. Rosenthal's fastball/curveball combination gets him plenty of strikeouts, and he has improved the control since his rookie season. He should be a good bet to lead the league in saves as this is a team that will find itself in a lot of close games once again. Kevin Siegrist is a rare workhorse left-hander, with genuinely dominant stuff that can right and left handed hitters out. His 2014 injury struggles were left in the past as he dominated in 2015, although the 75 innings of work are a lot. Assuming he can stay healthy, expect him to be the most used reliever out of the bullpen in 2016 and the results should match provided he can keep the ball in the park and limit walks. Seung-Hwan Oh was signed from Korea over the off-season where he is the all-time saves leader, and though not a dominant force on the mound at 33 years of age he is a nice lottery ticket in this pen for the Cards. Seth Maness is a groundballing workhorse who should be good for 65+ solid innings of relief, whilst Jonathan Broxton has great stuff and experience at the back-end of ballgames to close out a pretty solid bullpen.
2016 Projection
The Cardinals are one of the best-run organisations in baseball, and seemingly every season they put together a competitive roster. They somehow seem to turn non-prospects into three-win big leaguers consistently, and in 2016 they field another deep line-up, talented pitching staff and lights-out bullpen. The health of guys like Holliday, Molina and Garcia will be vital, and if some of the exciting youngsters like Grichuk, Piscotty, Martinez and Gonzales can take a stride forward there is no reason this team doesn't have the ability to win another 100 games. The loss of Heyward is significant however, and given the competitiveness of the division, the Cards may find themselves forced to compete just for a wildcard spot, but betting against them seems foolish given their consistent brilliance.
Projected record: 96-66
Milwaukee Brewers (68-94)
Projected Opening Day Line-up
| No. | Name | Position | Projected 2016 AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jonathan Villar | SS | .240/.303/.374 |
| 2 | Jonathan Lucroy | C | .276/.340/.415 |
| 3 | Ryan Braun | LF | .280/.345/.480 |
| 4 | Chris Carter | 1B | .237/.333/.506 |
| 5 | Domingo Santana | RF | .252/.337/.467 |
| 6 | Scooter Gennett | 2B | .278/.309/.407 |
| 7 | Aaron Hill | 3B | .256/.310/.406 |
| 8 | Keon Broxton | CF | .215/.283/.376 |
Projected Opening Day Rotation
| No. | Name | Projected 2016 Innings/Strikeouts/ERA |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wily Peralta | 150/106/4.57 |
| 2 | Jimmy Nelson | 162/141/3.90 |
| 3 | Matt Garza | 138/105/4.43 |
| 4 | Taylor Jungmann | 162/149/3.90 |
| 5 | Chase Anderson | 145/122/4.30 |
The Brewers line-up is a bit of a skeleton at the moment, with only two players who have been Brewers for longer than a season in Lucroy and Braun. Villar has plenty of speed and power for the middle infield, and he flashed promising contact skills in 2015, cutting his strikeouts by 5%. If he can prove that was a meaningful change, he could be in for a nice season. Lucroy and Braun have both had struggles in recent seasons but I see no reason why they shouldn't return towards their career lines this year, Braun with more power and speed but Lucroy's elite pitch-framing will be a nice boost for the Brew Crew. Chris Carter has a lot of power but strikes out as much as anyone, whilst fellow ex-Astro Domingo Santana has put up some impressive minor league stat lines but needs to prove he can do that in the Majors. Gennett is a replacement level second baseman who can't hit lefties, whilst Hill has gone downhill faster than anyone in recent seasons and likely isn't long for this Brewers line-up. Keon Broxton steals a lot of bases and has some pop to go with elite center field defense, but he strikes out a whole lot and may be over-matched in his first stint in the Major Leagues. There are a lot of holes and easy outs in this line-up, so unless some of the more promising youngsters (all the ex-Houston hitters) break out this team will struggle to put runs on the board.
The rotation has some interesting young pitchers, including 'ace' Wily Peralta who has always promised stardom with an upper-90's fastball that stays hard late into games and a high groundball rate. However, he has struggled to get left-handers out ever since he joined the Majors and has also given up his fair share of home runs. Some kind of mechanical tweak or new pitch aside, he is likely set for another disappointing season. Jimmy Nelson has the stuff to get a lot of strikeouts, and although control is an issue he is young enough to make strides there. A healthy season will be important for him, as his development may be the closest thing the Brewers currently have to a number one or two starter. Matt Garza was maybe the worst pitcher in baseball in 2015, which is saying something, and although his true talent is undoubtedly better than that, with over $20m owed to him he likely won't be particularly popular with the fans unless he turns his fortunes around fast. Taylor Jungmann and Chase Anderson are two young right-handers who have had some success in the Majors, with the ability to miss some bats and at the very least they will eat some innings for the Brewers, although neither of them have particularly high ceilings.
2016 Projection
The Brewers are in rebuild mode this year, and the roster reflects that. The line-up has few entrenched hitters with a lot of former prospects and a couple of higher upside veterans. The rotation has some youth, and the growth of guys like Nelson, Jungmann and Anderson will be exciting to watch. For the time being though, there are few reasons for optimism in 2016 outside bounce-back seasons for Braun and Lucroy and the possible debut of shortstop prospect Orlando Arcia. Brewers fans should be excited for the future, but part of the plan is being pretty mediocre in 2016.
Projected record: 63-99
Chicago Cubs (97-65)
Projected Opening Day Line-up
| No. | Name | Position | Projected 2016 AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dexter Fowler | CF | .255/.352/.403 |
| 2 | Jason Heyward | RF | .274/.352/.433 |
| 3 | Ben Zobrist | 2B | .273/.356/.439 |
| 4 | Anthony Rizzo | 1B | .271/.369/.502 |
| 5 | Kris Bryant | 3B | .263/.362/.485 |
| 6 | Kyle Schwarber | LF | .250/.337/.496 |
| 7 | Miguel Montero | C | .232/.325/.358 |
| 8 | Addison Russell | SS | .252/.307/.413 |
Projected Opening Day Rotation
| No. | Name | Projected 2016 Innings/Strikeouts/ERA |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jake Arrieta | 187/194/2.56 |
| 2 | Jon Lester | 199/194/2.98 |
| 3 | John Lackey | 183/156/3.34 |
| 4 | Kyle Hendricks | 160/125/3.61 |
| 5 | Jason Hammel | 145/125/3.93 |
The Cubs were the surprise package of 2015 and a major reason for their success was the instant adjustment to the Major Leagues of some young hitters. Dexter Fowler is something of a veteran at this point, a solid defensive centre fielder who draws walks, hits for power, steals some bases and makes enough contact to consistently post .350+ OBP's. He's an ideal lead-off guy for this team. Jason Heyward has never rounded into the 30-homer power scouts expected of him, but he continues to walk at a prolific pace, has cut down the strikeouts and plays right field better than anyone in the Majors. Zobrist is back under the tutelage of Joe Maddon, and he will no doubt be used across the field where his elite on-base skills and decent power/speed will play up, even at the age of 35. Anthony Rizzo has quietly become one of the best first baseman in the game and my sleeper pick for MVP. He has prodigious power, no huge weakness to left-handers and has cut down his strikeouts to the point that he is an easy .300/.400/.500 candidate and the lynchpin of the line-up.
Kris Bryant had a monster first season in the Majors, and though some regression in batting average is to be expected given his huge number of strikeouts, the walks are solid and if he can make adjustments he's a 40-homer threat. Kyle Schwarber got off to a flying start in the Majors, hitting bombs at a 38-homer pace and threatening to spoil the rookie of the year party. He has a big strikeout problem that has stuck with him from AAA, but given his meteoric rise to the Majors he will be given time to adjust and if he does so he is a major asset at the plate for the Cubs, even if he no longer crouches behind it. Miguel Montero is not just the owner of a hilarious twitter account, but he is also a strong veteran presence behind the plate and is perhaps underrated at the dish too where his power and patience off-sets an increasing issue with strikeouts. Addison Russell had a quietly solid season in 2015, playing great defense and showing some flashes at the plate. If he can make adjustments then look out, because this line-up has mashers from 1 through 8.
Jake Arrieta leads the rotation, and whilst some regression must be expected from his obscene 1.77 ERA a year ago, the skill-set is there for him to once again challenge for the Cy Young award. He has dominant stuff, especially a hard slider that kills right-handers, gets tons of ground-balls and has less mileage on his arm than most 30 year olds. He's going to be a stud. Jon Lester is perhaps the most underrated member of this Cubs team, as he has consistently put up ace numbers for several years now and will likely continue to roll with a strikeout an inning, measly walk numbers and no troubling platoon splits. Lackey had a nice season in St. Louis last year, although he did ride the second-best strand rate in the Majors to get there. He continues to be stingy with walks and get a good deal of strikeouts and groundballs, so even as age catches up to him he should be a solid performer for the Cubs assuming his arm causes him no trouble.
Kyle Hendricks showcased a strikeout potential we hadn't seen in the Majors before in 2015 whilst keeping his walk rate down. He struggles with home runs thanks to his reduced velocity, but where he looked before like a fringy number five starter he is now a reasonable number four with upside. Similarly, Jason Hammel was surprisingly solid, riding heavy slider usage to a strikeout per inning which allows him to give up hard contact without a huge dent to results. He should be a reasonable back-end starter again in 2016. Overall, it's a rotation with two legitimate aces and some useful innings-eating starters with upside at the back end.
Hector Rondon appears poised to start the 2016 season as closer after racking up 59 saves in the past two seasons on the north side of Chicago and although he doesn't stand out as a shutdown option his strikeout, walk and groundball numbers make him a fantastic end-game pitcher. Pedro Strop has always struggled with command issues but when he has at least a solid grasp of the strike zone (as he has in the past few seasons) he can use one of the best sliders in baseball to devastating effect, holding right-handers to a .216 wOBA. Trevor Cahill successfully made the transition to the bullpen last season, adding a couple of ticks of velocity and maintaining his elite groundball numbers from his starting days, often pitching in high-leverage spots at the end of the year and in the play-offs. The Cubs may view him as a spot-starter or long relief option but he has the stuff to be a useful bullpen arm. Travis Wood was another to enjoy a rotation-to-bullpen velocity boost, and he and Clayton Richard will be the Cubs lefties this season. Overall, it's a pen with decent top level quality if not a lot of depth, but given the ability of the rotation it may not need it.
2016 Projection
The Cubs are building a dynasty, and in this team there is a core that will be productive for many years to come. The line-up is fearsome, pretty much from top to bottom with incredible power and some quality on-base guys that will ensure this is one of the top scoring teams in the Majors. They also have more talent coming through the farm system in Jorge Soler and Javy Baez who will get at-bats from the start of the season, as well as Gleyber Torres, Willson Contreras and Billy McKinney who may make debuts at some point. There might be a few games where this team strikes out 15 times and guys like Bryant, Russell and Schwarber will have to deal with growing pains but there is no denying it is a stacked line-up. The rotation has quality at the front in the National League Cy Young award winner, with some quality arms behind Arrieta too. Hendricks and Hammel are possible weaknesses if they struggle with home runs and lose the strikeout gains they have made, but this team has the depth to recover from poor performance or injury. The bullpen is solid if unspectacular, so it is hard to see this team not competing for the NL Central title and at least earning a wildcard spot. I don't think they're a lock to win the division as some people do, but they should be in the race the whole way.
Projected record: 96-66
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The NL Central lines up to be a tight division with three fantastically constructed teams all of which could conceivably run away with the title if the other two slip up. Pittsburgh is loaded with young pitching talent and has a great bullpen to go with a line-up that could get even better if some of the young guys take steps forward. The Cardinals are an ever-present threat in the Central, with a lights-out rotation and a line-up full of high-OBP hitters who will work a count but have the pop to punish a mistake. And the Cubs have a laughably talented system, just brimming with tools across the diamond and in Arrieta/Lester they have a 1-2 that compares favourably to any team in baseball. I think all three teams are a good bet for 90 wins and would not be surprised to see the title go down to the final few games once more. As for the Brewers and Reds, this will be a rebuilding season. Both teams have some exciting players but both also have enough inexperience and roster imbalance to lose 100 games which might not be the worst thing when prospects are the name of the game.
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