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Miami Marlins (71-91)
Projected Opening Day Line-up
| No. | Name | Position | Projected 2016 AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dee Gordon | 2B | .295/.333/.384 |
| 2 | Marcell Ozuna | CF | .260/.308/.414 |
| 3 | Christian Yelich | LF | .278/.355/.409 |
| 4 | Giancarlo Stanton | RF | .270/.367/.566 |
| 5 | Martin Prado | 3B | .282/.329/.393 |
| 6 | Justin Bour | 1B | .265/.326/.439 |
| 7 | J.T. Realmuto | C | .251/.293/.369 |
| 8 | Adeiny Hechavarria | SS | .267/.302/.358 |
Projected Opening Day Rotation
| No. | Name | Projected 2016 Innings/Strikeouts/ERA |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wei-Yin Chen | 170/135/3.36 |
| 2 | Jose Fernandez | 145/173/2.80 |
| 3 | Tom Koehler | 161/120/4.22 |
| 4 | Adam Conley | 122/92/4.05 |
| 5 | Jarred Cosart | 125/94/4.17 |
Dee Gordon had a huge season in 2015, claiming the National League batting title by posting a .333 average and stealing a MLB-high 58 bases atop the Marlins line-up. He has no power but works with that, hitting a huge number of groundballs which fuels a high-BABIP thanks to his elite speed. Another batting crown is unlikely, but a .300 average with tons of steals makes him a valuable top-of-the-line-up presence. Ozuna has always promised huge power potential without tapping into it yet, and in 2016 he'll look to add power to his improved contact rate in 2015. Christian Yelich has strong strikeout and walk rates, 20-steal speed and some line drive power but his tendency to hit ground-balls has stopped him from ever hitting for power which we would expect some of given his body shape. The current iteration of Yelich is a very useful player, but if he could hit more fly balls he could have 20 home run power which would make him a top outfielder. Stanton's raw power is unrivalled in the game today, and in 2015 he mashed 27 home runs in just 74 games. He showed a worrying decline in walks and increase in strikeouts, perhaps selling out for extra power, but if he can return towards his career lines there then health is the only question at this point.
Martin Prado has made a career out of being an excellent contact hitter, who is a fairly safe bet for a .280 average but doesn't have the power or speed that he used to. That still has value, although with free agency impending at the end of the season he may end up trade bait. Justin Bour is the dream platoon candidate, an absolute righty-crusher who has considerable power, but he cannot hit a lick off lefties, so the Marlins should be platooning him with someone. Realmuto had a useful rookie season in 2015, posting an OBP below .300 but stealing 8 bases (most of all catchers), hitting 10 home runs and playing solid defense. He's an athletics back-stop who posted decent enough walk rates in the Minors that a .250 average could still portend a .310ish OBP. At age 25, he's a solid catcher for the Marlins future. Adeiny Hechavarria is a glove-first shortstop who has enough contact skills to hit an empty .280 which will be buoyed by some intentional walks from hitting eighth. He's not an awful hitter, but the Marlins will be relying on his value in the field more than at the plate.
Wei-Yin Chen has been a durable and reliable left-hander for his four year major league career, and his off-season deal with the Marlins reflected that. He doesn't have over-powering stuff but he limits walks, induces pop ups and is especially tough on left-handers. He's not an ace by any means, but he should be a useful innings-eater who could thrive in a spacious home ballpark. Jose Fernandez is maybe the most exciting pitcher to watch in baseball, a strikeout artist who has an electric fastball, knee-buckling curveball and increasingly effective change-up. He is remarkably still just 23 years old, has so much fun and passion on the mound and at this point his health is the only thing holding him back. Even on an innings-limit he is going to be the best starter on this staff by light years.
Tom Koehler has quietly been a useful mid-rotation starter for Miami for a few seasons now, and though he has big home/road splits and middling walk/strikeout rates he is a good bet for 180 solid innings which this rotation sorely needs. Conley was solid in limited big-league action last season, and should get a decent number of starts for this squad in 2016 where he can try to repeat his solid strikeout numbers from 2015. Jarred Cosart has survived with middling stuff and poor strikeout rates for several seasons now but given his control issues it's likely his future is in the bullpen. He gets ground-balls and tends to avoid home runs which works given his home park but this may be his last chance to prove he has the stuff to stick in a big-league rotation.
The bullpen is once more anchored by 29 year old right-hander A.J. Ramos who rode 11 strikeouts per 9 in 2015 to 32 saves and a 2.30 ERA. A career low walk-rate is a good sign for his future whilst elite strand rates point towards regression but he may have actually been unlucky with home runs so another solid season in the 9th inning role should be on the cards. The unfortunate injury to Carter Capps has him requiring Tommy John surgery which is a real shame given how utterly mesmerising he was in 2015 with a new hop-step delivery. Bryan Morris is a ground-ball specialist who will provide some solid innings for the Marlins bullpen but may find himself higher up the pecking order than he should be given his middling stuff. David Phelps is a useful swing-man who can provide solid long relief or spot starts whilst Edwin Jackson might have some value left as a reliever. The rest of the bullpen is made up of Spring Training invites like Craig Breslow and Dustin McGowan who have no spot on a competing bullpen. Ramos aside, this is an awful bunch of arms and this could be an ugly season for Miami relief pitching.
2016 Projection
The Marlins head into the season with a couple of marquee players in their prime in Stanton and Fernandez as well as the backbone of a reasonable line-up. Gordon, Ozuna, Yelich and Realmuto are all young players who could take steps forward in 2016 to make this a surprisingly strong offense but there's also regression and injury risk abound. The rotation has a few reasonable innings-eaters but very little upside outside Fernandez so there will be a lot of relying on the homer-suppressing ability of Marlins Park. The bullpen is a dumpster fire of awful after Capps' injury which might see Ramos traded if he has another productive season. Despite some good players on this team, it is one that is going to struggle to attain a .500 record as the Marlins continue to show mixed signals about its intentions for winning now or in the future. The Braves and Phillies might help prop this team up a bit but there's a clear gulf in class.
Projected record: 74-88
Washington Nationals (83-79)
Projected Opening Day Line-up
| No. | Name | Position | Projected 2016 AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Taylor | CF | .220/.279/.351 |
| 2 | Anthony Rendon | 3B | .272/.346/.430 |
| 3 | Bryce Harper | RF | .312/.433/.600 |
| 4 | Daniel Murphy | 2B | .288/.332/.431 |
| 5 | Jayson Werth | LF | .240/.330/.396 |
| 6 | Wilson Ramos | C | .249/.283/.385 |
| 7 | Ryan Zimmerman | 1B | .258/.324/.439 |
| 8 | Danny Espinosa | SS | .223/.290/.366 |
Projected Opening Day Rotation
| No. | Name | Projected 2016 Innings/Strikeouts/ERA |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Scherzer | 207/243/2.82 |
| 2 | Stephen Strasburg | 166/189/3.01 |
| 3 | Gio Gonzalez | 166/158/3.71 |
| 4 | Tanner Roark | 139/94/3.77 |
| 5 | Joe Ross | 134/111/3.90 |
The early season injury to Ben Revere means that Michael Taylor is in line for another extended look in center field and the 25 year old had a promising 2015 campaign that included 14 home runs and 16 steals. Unfortunately, he also had a .282 OBP as he struck out at a terrifying 31% rate. His glove is excellent and he has some intriguing tools but until he can make more consistent contact he'll be limited to a fourth outfielder role. Anthony Rendon was wonderful in 2014 but struggled with injuries and inconsistency in 2015 which makes him hard to value this year. When healthy, he makes a ton of hard contact which should ensure a high average and possible 20-homer power whilst he also has elite plate discipline and enough speed to challenge 20 steals. That kind of player is a sleeper MVP candidate. Health is his biggest concern at this point. What is there left to say about Bryce Harper? His 2016 season was as ridiculous as it was incredible: 42 home runs, 124 walks to 131 strikeouts, a .330 average and a Bondsian .460 OBP. He surely can't repeat those exact statistics but there is nothing to suggest he won't be one of the best players in baseball once again. Enjoy Nats fans.Daniel Murphy had already registered his best season with the bat in 2015 before going absolutely berserk in the play-offs and his offensive profile suggests he will age just fine entering his 30's. He's almost impossible to strike out, with a 7.1% mark in 2015 which incredibly coincided with his best power numbers as he hit 14 bombs. A .300 average and 15 home runs is pretty nice at second base.
Jayson Werth was an elite hitter for so long that his decline in recent years has been as terrifying as it has rapid. At this point however, he is a below-average hitter who relies on walks and the occasional home run for all of his value. He's owed too much money to not be given a chance this season, but could be squeezed for playing time if he struggles. Ramos had a hugely disappointing 2015 season but there are plenty of factors that point towards a bounce-back including LASIK eye surgery in Spring Training that reportedly has helped him pick up the ball at the plate. He's never been an elite offensive performer, but for a catcher he has significant upside. Ryan Zimmerman's consistent battle with injuries has somewhat masked the fact that his offensive production has declined and at age 31 his health issues won't go away soon. Clint Robinson will be stealing some playing time against right-handers too. Danny Espinosa has been a poor Major League hitter for some time now, but inexplicably won the shortstop job out of Spring Training over Trea Turner despite the fact he is a second baseman defensively. If Espinosa tears the cover off the ball he may keep the job but it appears he is merely keeping the position warm for Turner's call-up.
Max Scherzer will enter the second year of his mammoth contract with the Nationals once again atop a strong rotation. His 2015 season was his best yet as he improved the strikeout rate, cut the walk rate and even got a bit unlucky on home runs. If he can control the long ball then he has to be seen as the favourite to dethrone Kershaw in the NL Cy Young race. Strasburg was brutal in the early season showings of 2015 before two disabled list stints seemingly doomed him to a lost season. Upon his return however, Strasburg was absolutely dominant, striking out 37% of hitters over his last 10 starts. Assuming he can stay healthy he will try to build off the talent that has been so enticing since his debut.
Gio Gonzalez remains a valuable pitcher, albeit more for his durability than the stuff that made him one of baseball's premier southpaws in 2010 and 2011. A career-high groundball rate matched a four-year-low strikeout rate but Gio continues to roll along productively. Tanner Roark has the fourth starter spot but his magic 2014 season looks like a major anomaly as he was fairly unproductive in spot starts last year. A decent ground-ball rate limits his floor but the ceiling probably isn't all that high either. Like his brother Tyson, Joe Ross rides an elite slider to a decent strikeout rate as a starter, but he doesn't have the same extended repertoire as his sibling which means it could be a year of adjustments in the rotation for the talented 22 year old.
The closer on the Nationals is Alex Rodriguez's closest competitor for the 'most hated man in baseball' moniker, the constantly-smirking Jonathan Papelbon. Papelbon is no longer one of the best relievers in baseball but even at age 35 he has enough in the tank to be a solid end-game option for the Nats, although it's what he does off the field that is more interesting as his spat with Bryce Harper was an ugly eyesore that summed up a disappointing 2015 campaign. The departure of Drew Storen leaves the Nats bullpen looking revamped, and off-season acquisition Shawn Kelley had a fantastic 2015 on the Padres maintaining his elite strikeout rate whilst reducing the walks. Blake Treinen has a big 97mph fastball that gets him an elite groundball rate and though the strikeouts and walks are fairly average he's a good bet to outperform those stats thanks to the heavy sinker. Oliver Perez is a consistent southpaw who got unlucky in 2015 but is a good bet to bounce back this year whilst Matt Belisle has struggled with injuries but is usually solid when healthy. Overall, the bullpen lacks the dominance it has had in recent years but has enough solid underrated acquisitions to be an asset overall.
2016 Projection
The Nationals have been a popular World Series pick for a couple of seasons now but have consistently disappointed which makes me bearish on their chances for 2016. One look at the roster though and it is easy to see why they receive so much attention as the NL MVP and two clear Cy Young candidates headline this team. The line-up has some impact bats at the heart and even with some declining veterans taking up playing time it should score plenty of runs when Harper is healthy. The rotation has two legitimate aces, a solid number three and two back-end starters with upside, not to mention the upcoming arrival of the game's top pitching prospect Lucas Giolito. The bullpen is solid enough to close out most leads, so ultimately this team will go as far as the health and production of its line-up will allow it. I think they're a good bet for a wildcard spot given the weakness of the rest of the division and could even push the Mets for the division.
Gio Gonzalez remains a valuable pitcher, albeit more for his durability than the stuff that made him one of baseball's premier southpaws in 2010 and 2011. A career-high groundball rate matched a four-year-low strikeout rate but Gio continues to roll along productively. Tanner Roark has the fourth starter spot but his magic 2014 season looks like a major anomaly as he was fairly unproductive in spot starts last year. A decent ground-ball rate limits his floor but the ceiling probably isn't all that high either. Like his brother Tyson, Joe Ross rides an elite slider to a decent strikeout rate as a starter, but he doesn't have the same extended repertoire as his sibling which means it could be a year of adjustments in the rotation for the talented 22 year old.
The closer on the Nationals is Alex Rodriguez's closest competitor for the 'most hated man in baseball' moniker, the constantly-smirking Jonathan Papelbon. Papelbon is no longer one of the best relievers in baseball but even at age 35 he has enough in the tank to be a solid end-game option for the Nats, although it's what he does off the field that is more interesting as his spat with Bryce Harper was an ugly eyesore that summed up a disappointing 2015 campaign. The departure of Drew Storen leaves the Nats bullpen looking revamped, and off-season acquisition Shawn Kelley had a fantastic 2015 on the Padres maintaining his elite strikeout rate whilst reducing the walks. Blake Treinen has a big 97mph fastball that gets him an elite groundball rate and though the strikeouts and walks are fairly average he's a good bet to outperform those stats thanks to the heavy sinker. Oliver Perez is a consistent southpaw who got unlucky in 2015 but is a good bet to bounce back this year whilst Matt Belisle has struggled with injuries but is usually solid when healthy. Overall, the bullpen lacks the dominance it has had in recent years but has enough solid underrated acquisitions to be an asset overall.
2016 Projection
The Nationals have been a popular World Series pick for a couple of seasons now but have consistently disappointed which makes me bearish on their chances for 2016. One look at the roster though and it is easy to see why they receive so much attention as the NL MVP and two clear Cy Young candidates headline this team. The line-up has some impact bats at the heart and even with some declining veterans taking up playing time it should score plenty of runs when Harper is healthy. The rotation has two legitimate aces, a solid number three and two back-end starters with upside, not to mention the upcoming arrival of the game's top pitching prospect Lucas Giolito. The bullpen is solid enough to close out most leads, so ultimately this team will go as far as the health and production of its line-up will allow it. I think they're a good bet for a wildcard spot given the weakness of the rest of the division and could even push the Mets for the division.
Projected record: 91-71
Atlanta Braves (67-95)
Projected Opening Day Line-up
| No. | Name | Position | Projected 2016 AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Erick Aybar | SS | .272/.309/.371 |
| 2 | Nick Markakis | RF | .277/.343/.370 |
| 3 | Freddie Freeman | 1B | .277/.373/.465 |
| 4 | Adonis Garcia | 3B | .253/.285/.385 |
| 5 | Hector Olivera | LF | .257/.328/.383 |
| 6 | Tyler Flowers | C | .232/.291/.368 |
| 7 | Jace Peterson | 2B | .234/.306/.331 |
| 8 | Drew Stubbs | CF | .203/.278/.331 |
Projected Opening Day Rotation
| No. | Name | Projected 2016 Innings/Strikeouts/ERA |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julio Teheran | 193/171/3.83 |
| 2 | Matt Wisler | 152/121/4.55 |
| 3 | Bud Norris | 143/127/4.36 |
| 4 | Williams Perez | 129/93/4.45 |
| 5 | Jhoulys Chacin | 81/62/4.18 |
Erick Aybar will finally don the uniform of a team other than the Angels, and he will attempt to take his remarkably consistent if a little one-dimensional game to Atlanta with him. His batting average is consistently solid and he has 15-steal speed to go along with it, but the rest of his value is derived solely from whatever defensive value he has left as he enters the last year of an extension. Nick Markakis is a solid top-of-the-line-up hitter who has lost his power and speed skills but remains an on-base and doubles machine, walking almost as much as he strikes out. Freddie Freeman is clearly the best hitter in this line-up but may find himself pitched around this season, although a near-.400 OBP and 25 home runs is superb production, even on a rebuilding team like Atlanta. Adonis Garcia hit 10 home runs in just 58 games at the end of 2015 and appears to be the Braves starting third baseman. The power looks like it could be fairly legitimate, but he'll need to cut down on strikeouts and walk more to post an OBP over .300 - hitting behind Freddie Freeman will give him plenty of RBI opportunities though.
At 31 years old, Olivera is very old for a player entering only his second year with Major League playing time, but the Braves seem set to give him every chance to rake at the heart of their line-up. Olivera has some power potential, but like Garcia is unlikely to post a particularly impressive OBP. Flowers has decent pop for a catcher but also strikes out in a terrifying one-third of his plate appearances meaning he hasn't posted an OBP over .300 since 2011. Behind the plate his defensive skills are fairly solid and he'll platoon with A.J. Pierzynski who just won't retire no matter how much we pray. Jace Peterson was fairly average in his first taste of regular big league action in 2015, with little hitting ability but the occasional steal and a good enough walk rate to get by. He'll resume his development in 2016 but the ceiling looks fairly limited at this point. The injury to Ender Inciarte opens up playing time in center field that will be filled by some combination of toolsy journeyman Drew Stubbs and exciting youngster Mallex Smith, with the latter an intriguing speedy prospect who could use some further seasoning.
Julio Teheran took a bit of a step back in 2015 after two great seasons in the Braves rotation, as increased walks, decreased strand rate and ineffectiveness against left-handers contributed to a 4.04 ERA. Some regression should be in store for 2016, although his platoon split remains an issue but at the young age of 25 just having three consecutive 185+ inning seasons under your belt is impressive. Matt Wisler is a talented right-hander who struggled to get many punchouts in limited action in 2015 but was reasonably effective nonetheless. Some refined control and better pitch selection is needed this season but at age 23 a year of adjustments and growth is all that is needed. Bud Norris spent much of 2015 in the bullpen but will have a rotation spot in Atlanta to start the year. He can strike guys out but has always struggled with command and control. At best, he is a reasonable workhorse who has some upside but in likelihood he will be replaced in the rotation by a younger arm at some point and given a more permanent role in the 'pen. Williams Perez is a similar pitcher, with more groundballs and fewer strikeouts who gives up a lot of hits to left-handers but is a useful innings-eater on a rebuilding team. Jhoulys Chacin appears poised to fill the fifth spot in this rotation, and the right-hander was an intriguing pitcher about six years ago but has failed to demonstrate significant progress since then. Once again, he will be relied on to eat some innings but little else.
Flame-throwing 25 year old Arodys Vizcaino appears to be the current choice for ninth inning duty in Atlanta after a successful conversion from a starter last year and on raw stuff he is probably the best choice in this pen. On a fastball/curveball combo he has more than enough stuff to close out games although Atlanta may want to keep his saves down for arbitration. Jason Grilli was fascinatingly dominant in 2015 until his injury, somehow racking up saves and strikeouts at the age of 38 with diminished stuff and he will at least start the season attempting to repeat the trick at the back-end of the Atlanta bullpen although he'll almost certainly be traded at some point. Jim Johnson repaired some of his battered reputation in a quietly solid season for the Braves last year and he'll try to ride groundballs and a smattering of strikeouts to similar effect this year. Alexi Ogando and Eric O'Flaherty provide some veteran arms without much upside whilst Jose Ramirez is a young pitcher with some upside in a bullpen void of much noteworthy talent.
2016 Projection
The Braves are in full-blown, unapologetic rebuild mode. The line-up has almost no-one you could consider an above average regular outside Freeman and Markakis, whilst the rotation contains a couple of exciting young pitchers and three questionable innings-eaters who likely aren't long for the Braves. There's no shame in having a couple of awful seasons in order to plan for the future, and the Braves trades and drafts of late have seen them amass a number of high-upside prospects, some of whom will get a taste of Major League action this year like Mallex Smith, Dansby Swanson and Aaron Blair. For 2016 however, something approaching 100 losses feels inevitable.
Projected record: 60-102
New York Mets (90-72)
Projected Opening Day Line-up
| No. | Name | Position | Projected 2016 AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Curtis Granderson | RF | .232/.330/.416 |
| 2 | David Wright | 3B | .266/.345/.397 |
| 3 | Yoenis Cespedes | CF | .268/.311/.495 |
| 4 | Lucas Duda | 1B | .249/.348/.485 |
| 5 | Neil Walker | 2B | .259/.327/.438 |
| 6 | Michael Conforto | LF | .256/.322/.464 |
| 7 | Asdrubal Cabrera | SS | .258/.315/.419 |
| 8 | Travis D'Arnaud | C | .249/.310/.439 |
Projected Opening Day Rotation
| No. | Name | Projected 2016 Innings/Strikeouts/ERA |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Harvey | 169/156/3.05 |
| 2 | Jacob DeGrom | 172/180/2.86 |
| 3 | Noah Syndegaard | 166/190/3.11 |
| 4 | Steven Matz | 153/151/3.55 |
| 5 | Bartolo Colon | 152/103/4.16 |
Curtis Granderson was fantastic in his second season in a Mets uniform, putting up a .364 OBP and 26 home runs as one of the best lead-off hitters in the game. His ability to draw a walk and greater willingness to take the ball the other way did not come at the expense of power and he should be a very solid table-setter once again in 2016 even at age 35. David Wright really struggled to stay on the field in 2015, as chronic back issues limited him to 38 games and he's unlikely to log a full season in 2016. When on the field, his bat remains fairly potent with good contact and power although the steals and defense has been diminishing for some time. Health is the question mark once again. Yoenis Cespedes enjoyed an MVP-calibre season in 2015 thanks in part to good fortune on balls in play but also due to increased hard contact which manifested in a career-best 35 home runs between the Tigers and Mets. He won't repeat the entire stat-line but the power surge is believable and he remains a legitimate heart of the line-up threat. Lucas Duda continued to mash home runs and walk enough to negate an elevated strikeout rate although at age 30 he is probably past his best days at this point.
Neil Walker was a consistently solid second baseman for the duration of his tenure in Pittsburgh and there is no reason he can't bring his solid contact, eye and power to the big apple too. He was a shrewd replacement for Daniel Murphy. Considering how much hype the New York Mets generated on their way to the World Series it kind of feels like Michael Conforto's dazzling debut slipped through the cracks a bit. He was wonderful in his first taste of big league action despite being professional for just 13 months at the time of his call-up. If he can continue to make adjustments in 2016 he could end the season as the Mets best hitter. Asdrubal Cabrera is a fairly average shortstop, the occasional highlight reel defensive play aside, but if he can put up a slash-line similar to that he posted in Tampa Bay last season he will represent an upgrade for the Mets with decent power for the middle infield. D'Arnaud was long a top prospect but after three years of middling results I think it is fair to say that he is what he is at this point. Which is an injury-prone backstop that has reasonable average and power statistics for a catcher (.250, 15 homers) as well as reasonable patience to make him an above-average overall package but not a top echelon option. He will likely lose some playing time to Kevin Plawecki this season although he has been equally disappointing in the Majors.
The rotation will be lead by several ace candidates, but the de-facto leader is Matt Harvey, the 27 year old right-hander who made a full recovery from Tommy John Surgery to post another fantastic season in 2015, even recording 217 innings including the post-season which is a huge (and not uncontroversial) figure for his first year back. The elbow held up fine however, and the stuff has never been in doubt so he looks locked in for another great 2016 campaign. Along with one of the most dominant all-star cameos in history, Jacob DeGrom improved his performance all around in 2015, striking out over a hitter per inning and cutting down on his walks over 190 solid innings. There have been some early concerns about his velocity heading into 2016 but assuming his arm is healthy he should be a lock for another great year and lots of ridiculous comments about his hair. Noah Syndegaard has maybe the best raw stuff on this pitching staff which is a laughably ridiculous notion given the absurd stuff of the two men in front of him. But yeah, Thor is just that good. He has the fastest fastball in the Majors among starting pitchers, touching 100mph with ease at times as well as a devastating curveball (Thor's hammer) and two potentially plus pitches in the change-up and slider. At 23 years old he is a frighteningly good pitcher who will be a lot of fun to watch now and in the future.
Oh look, another precociously talented youngster takes the fourth spot in southpaw Steven Matz who was also wonderful in limited 2015 action. The stuff isn't as obviously great as it is for Thor but 94mph from the left-side and two potentially solid off-speed pitches portends well for his future. An innings limit may be on the cards but Mets fans have to be excited about his future as their fourth starter. Who else but Bartolo Colon could close out a rotation like this, the loveable 42 year old entering his 19th season in the Majors but still as effective as ever (kind of). The reduced velocity, the average strikeout rates and the age are all red flags but who really cares because Colon continues to be one of the most entertaining players in baseball and when that two-seamer is working it's a beauty to behold.
Jeurys Familia worked his way into the closer's role in 2015 more through process of elimination than anything but he ended the year as one of baseball's most dominant relievers. An upper-90's fastball, devastating splitter and 58% ground-ball rate tends to do that. He will be a top ninth inning option once again in 2016. Setting him up will be Addison Reed who turned his season around after arriving at Citi Field last year, getting his control back under.. control and striking out guys as he always had. Hansel Robles came out of nowhere to be a valuable component of the Mets pennant-winning bullpen and the raw stuff backs up the results as he easily struck out more than a hitter per inning although he did give up quite a few home runs. Antonio Bastardo is the primary southpaw, a strikeout artist who gives up a lot of fly balls which means his end of season statistics tend to be pretty volatile but on the whole he's an above-average option against right and left-handers alike. Jim Henderson has started off 2016 by inducing 23 swings and 15 misses in his first three innings. Whilst such a rate is obviously unsustainable, if he can rediscover his 2013 form it would be a major coup for the Mets who have a strong bullpen either way.
2016 Projection
The Mets enter the 2016 season as division favourites after their surprising run to the World Series last year and they have a good shot at repeating behind one of the most talented rotations in baseball. The biggest question mark, however, is going to be the line-up which could face regression from guys like Granderson, Cespedes and Duda. Regardless, given the strength of the pitching staff the floor for this group is pretty high so it would be shocking to see them not compete for the division or at the very least a wildcard spot given the relative weakness of the rest of the NL East. I think the battle between them and the Nats will go right down to the wire.
Projected record: 92-70
Philadelphia Phillies (63-99)
Projected Opening Day Line-up
| No. | Name | Position | Projected 2016 AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freddy Galvis | SS | .245/.281/.361 |
| 2 | Cesar Hernandez | 2B | .274/.326/.359 |
| 3 | Odubel Herrera | CF | .276/.323/.390 |
| 4 | Maikel Franco | 3B | .274/.318/.475 |
| 5 | Ryan Howard | 1B | .226/.286/.415 |
| 6 | Cameron Rupp | C | .219/.278/.360 |
| 7 | Cedric Hunter | LF | .241/.291/.415 |
| 8 | Peter Bourjos | RF | .223/.293/.356 |
Projected Opening Day Rotation
| No. | Name | Projected 2016 Innings/Strikeouts/ERA |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeremy Hellickson | 130/113/4.52 |
| 2 | Aaron Nola | 171/153/4.18 |
| 3 | Charlie Morton | 129/106/4.55 |
| 4 | Vincent Velasquez | 76/92/3.77 |
| 5 | Jerad Eickhoff | 141/124/4.83 |
Freddy Galvis is a fairly unexciting shortstop who has a short clean hack which allows him to hit for a reasonable average but very little plate discipline or power which limits his OBP or SLG. He would probably be hitting much lower down if the Phillies were competitive but they're not so he's not. Cesar Hernandez was quietly useful in 2015, hitting for a decent average, drawing some walks and stealing 19 bases. At age 25 there may not be much development left, but even his current iteration is a not-terrible second baseman which is useful for the Phillies. Odubel Herrera was a hugely successful Rule 5 investment in 2015 as the converted centre-fielder put up a .297/.344/.418 slash-line and played solid defense for a four-win return on a $50,000 gamble. The luck on balls-in-play is bound to fall but if he can cut the strikeouts and walk some more he can be a similarly useful hitter. Maikel Franco led the league in Spring Training home runs and his intriguing blend of power and contact makes him one of the Phillies best hitters already. More consistently quality at-bats and Franco could sneakily be a stud at third base this season.
Ryan Howard and his gargantuan contract are fairly easy targets as symptoms of this awful Phillies group and entering his age-36 season Howard is basically a one-tool hitter who will occasionally hit a home run but offers negative value everywhere else. He was a great player a few years ago, but now he will simply look to hold some playing time over Darin Ruf. Cameron Rupp will be a reasonable stop-gap option at catcher whilst the Phillies wait for Alfaro to develop in the minor leagues, and he has the same traits as most catchers - 15 home run power but considerable contact struggles. Cedric Hunter is a long-time minor leaguer who has put up some reasonable stat lines at AA but has never really converted it to big-league playing time. This is at least his opportunity, but it's hard to see much upside. A speed-first outfielder who has struggled with injuries and is now 29 years old, Bourjos is exactly the kind of lottery ticket the Phillies should be aiming for. At his peak, he's an elite defensive outfielder who has decent contact skills and bags of speed. He's not that player any more, but if he gets hot he has some trade value.
Ever since his dominant and surprising 2011 rookie campaign with the Rays, Hellickson has been hit hard by regression, and whilst 2011 was an anomaly his true value is probably considerably higher than it has looked over the last couple of seasons. He induces swings and misses, doesn't walk too many guys but has an issue with hard contact, especially home runs. In Philadelphia he will get a chance to rebuild his reputation with little pressure on his rotation spot. Aaron Nola moved quickly through the minor leagues and had a solid taste of Major League action in 2015. He's not an ace, with stuff that doesn't look particularly flashy but he has a solid mix of pitches that give him enough strikeouts to get by and at just 22 years of age, Phillies fans should be exciting about his future. Just don't expect him to dominate in 2016.
Charlie Morton is a ground-ball specialist who doesn't excite and has spent periods of the last few seasons on the disabled list but he has a proven ability to get hitters out and is a nice upside play for the Phillies, especially if he runs into some good luck on balls in play. Vincent Velasquez, or Double-V as I have just affectionately decided to nickname him, has the best stuff in the entire rotation. A rising 94mph fastball, hammer curveball and slider/change-up combination that he didn't use much in 2015 but had devastating results when he did points towards a bright future. He has just 55 innings of experience above Double-A but the Phillies will give him every chance to develop and it looks like it might pay off. Jerad Eickhoff was quietly excellent over 60 innings in 2015, striking out nearly a hitter per inning and working around an elevated fly-ball and hard hit rate to a 2.65 ERA. The aforementioned hard contact is concerning, as his fastball is fairly flat, but intriguingly his slider graded as the best in baseball admittedly over a limited sample size in 2015. Extended usage of that pitch could see him get by as a solid back-of-the-rotation option.
The departure of young closer Ken Giles over the winter opened up the ninth inning role and it appears that it will be filled by veteran reliever David Hernandez. Hernandez doesn't quite have the dazzling strikeout rates that he did a few years ago but his new ground-ball tendency works too if not quite as effectively. Home run prevention has been a problem in recent seasons, so a few ugly early-season outings could see the 30 year old out of the role fairly quickly. Dalier Hinojosa appears to be second-in-line early in the year, after impressive 2015 results that were boosted by a 93.8% strand rate which is pretty unsustainable. Nonetheless, the right-hander has decent enough stuff to be a useful back-end option albeit a fairly volatile one given the control issues. Jeanmar Gomez has been a workhorse reliever for several seasons now with plainly average results that make him a fine option for a bullpen like Philadelphia's although early season whisperings that he will be an option in the ninth inning feel awfully premature. Brett Oberholtzer and James Russell are two left-handers that will excite no-one but be fine middle-relief options whilst Daniel Stumpf is a rule-5 pick with a grade-80 name. It's a pretty awful bullpen, but quite why the Phillies would invest in anything better is hard to see so it makes sense.
2016 Projection
The Phillies are in unashamed rebuild mode and it shows. This is a team that has very little immediate talent as far as the Major League roster is concerned and so will struggle to avoid 100 losses, but at this stage restocking the farm system is the priority. There are some exciting young players on the team now, including Maikel Franco, Odubel Herrera, Vincent Velasquez and Aaron Nola as well as an increasing wealth of talent in the minor league system headlined by top shortstop prospect J.P. Crawford. This is a team that is going to be shut out a lot, and would probably rank pretty highly on any 'most likely to be on the receiving end of a no-hitter' list but there are better times to come Philly fans, I promise.
Projected record: 59-103
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And with that, my divisional previews are finally done! Only one week into the regular season... Suppose that will teach me to take on a huge project that I don't really have the time for! I hope you've enjoyed reading through them, and I truly appreciate any feedback you would be willing to give. Personally, I think that they probably ended up a little too dry and mechanical as I tended to just waffle on about every player on the team which is great if you support that team but a little tedious if you're not that concerned about what stat-line Avisail Garcia is going to put up... Maybe in future I'll try to keep it a little fresher.
As for the tables, I tried to give them a mix in stats between 'old fashioned', traditional metrics and some 'newer' more representative one but again they could probably use some tweaking - especially on the pitcher's side. I think the GIF's worked well again though, I left them plain without comment as they are generally self-explanatory but I would be interested to hear if any of you feel they could have used some context. I'm going to try to produce some more content during the season this year, and if you have any ideas for content then please don't hesitate to tweet at me!
My gratitude is owed to Fangraphs, from whom I stole all of the player statistics and information, to the ZiPS projection system for the player stat-lines, to tablesgenerator.com for the neat tables and to Major League Baseball and its affiliates for the GIF's, none of which are my property.
Thanks for reading!
As for the tables, I tried to give them a mix in stats between 'old fashioned', traditional metrics and some 'newer' more representative one but again they could probably use some tweaking - especially on the pitcher's side. I think the GIF's worked well again though, I left them plain without comment as they are generally self-explanatory but I would be interested to hear if any of you feel they could have used some context. I'm going to try to produce some more content during the season this year, and if you have any ideas for content then please don't hesitate to tweet at me!
My gratitude is owed to Fangraphs, from whom I stole all of the player statistics and information, to the ZiPS projection system for the player stat-lines, to tablesgenerator.com for the neat tables and to Major League Baseball and its affiliates for the GIF's, none of which are my property.
Thanks for reading!
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