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Toronto Blue Jays (93-69)
Projected Opening Day Line-up
| No. | Name | Position | Projected 2016 AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Pillar | CF | .271/.306/.406 |
| 2 | Josh Donaldson | 3B | .277/.353/.517 |
| 3 | Jose Bautista | RF | .262/.379/.522 |
| 4 | Edwin Encarnacion | DH | .270/.363/.514 |
| 5 | Troy Tulowitzki | SS | .261/.335/.442 |
| 6 | Chris Colabello | 1B | .254/.308/.440 |
| 7 | Michael Saunders | LF | .246/.322/.418 |
| 8 | Russell Martin | C | .236/.336/.415 |
| 9 | Ryan Goins | 2B | .235/.280/.326 |
Projected Opening Day Rotation
| No. | Name | Projected 2016 Innings/Strikeouts/ERA |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcus Stroman | 105/89/3.80 |
| 2 | R.A. Dickey | 176/116/4.41 |
| 3 | J.A. Happ | 136/114/4.38 |
| 4 | Marco Estrada | 158/123/4.06 |
| 5 | Aaron Sanchez | 108/80/3.92 |
The line-up remains insultingly good, with Kevin Pillar pencilled in to the lead-off spot. Pillar has made a name for himself with freakish defensive ability, but his low strikeout rate and reasonable power/speed combination gives him decent value with the bat. Josh Donaldson is the AL MVP and for good reason too, as he rode his first season in a hitters ball park to some monster numbers including 8.7 wins above replacement. The average may regress as Donaldson got lucky on balls in play in 2015, but with so many balls flying over the wall and solid walk:strikeout numbers he's not going away as an MVP candidate soon. Billy Beane what did you do... Jose Bautista is a freak, a hitting monster with a knack for a clutch home run who has mashed 227 homers since 2010 and has walked more than he struck out in the past two years. Power hitters just don't do that, but Joey Bats is no normal power hitter. At age 35 he doesn't come without downside, but betting against him feels pretty foolish at this point. Edwin Encarnacion continues to hit home runs at an alarming pace, and similarly to Bautista has logic-defying (although not quite to the same extent) walk and strikeout numbers. He'll never hit .300 and can barely play first base but really, who cares, he could probably hit 40 home runs on one leg.
Troy Tulowitzki had his worst offensive season in a while in 2015 as he made the transition from NL to AL and from awful team to best line-up in the Majors. He did, however, stay mostly healthy which has always been his biggest issue, and assuming the skills are still mostly in tact, a 30 home run season doesn't feel out of the realms of possibility. The days of a .300 average are gone but Tulo still supplies elite offense for the shortstop position. Chris Colabello was fantastic in 2015, but only Chris Colabello's mother thinks he could sustain a .411 BABIP. He's a lefty masher who can hit righties pretty well too, but he can't really defend and may find himself in a platoon with Justin Smoak. Michael Saunders and Russell Martin are the major Canadian contributors to the Toronto team, and the former will just be trying to get through one injury free season whilst the latter looks to repeat his power surge from 2015. Ryan Goins will get a chance to make second base his own, but with Devon Travis breathing down his neck from the disabled list it will only take a first half like his 2015 one to see him pulled out of the line-up.
Marcus Stroman is poised to fill his mantle as 'ace of the future', at least in terms of spot in the rotation, and the likeable pint-sized (for a pitcher) right-hander has a lot to look forward to. In 2015 he suffered an unfortunate Spring Training ACL tear which looked like it would end his season, but an aggressive rehab timetable saw him return at the end of the year and pitch well, inducing a sickening number of groundballs and making a couple of key post-season starts. ZiPS seems to expect him to miss time again, but given his arm is healthy and rested this could be the year he becomes a legitimate workhorse ace. The 41 year old R.A. Dickey has seen his knuckleball lose effectiveness in recent years with strikeouts down and home runs up, but he remains a more than serviceable innings eater who induces more weak contact than most. Another apparent patient of the Ray Searage career-changing practice, J.A. Happ saw his stuff tick up and the results to match upon his arrival in Pittsburgh in 2015 and he rode that success to a three year contract with the team that gave up on him the year before. Moving back to the AL will hurt him, but if he can continue the strikeout growth and induce some groundballs he could be a decent return on the Jays' investment.
Marco Estrada had a great 2015 season, somehow living as a fly-ball pitcher in a tiny home stadium, but his peripheral numbers got worse (strikeouts down, walks up) and so he could be in for a rough regression in 2016. His low BABIP-against may be sustainable, as he induces a lot of weak contact, but the home run regression is probably unavoidable, there may be a few ugly starts this season. Aaron Sanchez won a rotation spot on the back of a strong Spring after proving a useful bullpen piece at the end of last season. The former top prospect has the stuff to start with a live fastball and devastating curve, but his slight frame and iffy rotation results in the past point to a bullpen role. As with AL East compatriot Kevin Gausman, the high fastball may be his route to a consistent rotation spot, but if he struggles then Toronto won't hesitate to move him back to the 'pen where is a known commodity with high upside.
2015 closer sensation Roberto Osuna is being given a chance to run with the role once more in 2016, despite being just 21 years old and having precisely 21 innings of experience above rookie ball prior to last season. In Osuna's defence he looked like a fish in water in the Major Leagues, striking out a hitter per inning with three good pitches and ending the year with 20 saves. Ultimately, he may be better served in the rotation, but for 2016 there is no doubt he helps the team more in the bullpen. Big off-season acquisition Drew Storen will fill the eighth-inning void, and he will look to put a 2015 of two halves behind him. He has devastating strikeout stuff - almost 12K/9 in 2015 - but showed an alarming weakness as a set-up man in 2015 and his fly ball tendencies aren't ideal for the Rogers Centre. Keep an eye on his early season success. Brett Cecil had this third straight dominant season in 2015 and is quietly one of the best left-handers in the league. He strikes out right and left-handers alike, induces plenty of groundballs and has even cut the walks of late. He's as reliable as they get in the middle innings. Jesse Chavez, Franklin Morales and Arnold Leon will help close out a pen that has a very solid top three but may be pushed for depth at some point this year.
2016 Projection
The Blue Jays had the best run differential in baseball last year, and if not for an abysmal record in one-run games could easily have won 100 games. The line-up remains laughably good, just loaded with power threats that don't strike out as much as others as well as increasingly good defense across the diamond. The rotation is maybe lacking one top-end option, but Stroman could make a big stride forward this year whilst Happ and Sanchez have considerable upside. The bullpen should be very solid indeed, with three top-tier options although it lacks quality depth. Overall, this team is going to go as far as the rotation allows it to. It is built to win now, and with the kind of line-up that makes opposing pitchers pray for rain they are going to win most games where the other team scores less than five. In a competitive division though, a few too many starting pitching struggles and a shaky bullpen could see them struggle despite this. It's hard to see a situation where they're not at least in the race come September though.
Troy Tulowitzki had his worst offensive season in a while in 2015 as he made the transition from NL to AL and from awful team to best line-up in the Majors. He did, however, stay mostly healthy which has always been his biggest issue, and assuming the skills are still mostly in tact, a 30 home run season doesn't feel out of the realms of possibility. The days of a .300 average are gone but Tulo still supplies elite offense for the shortstop position. Chris Colabello was fantastic in 2015, but only Chris Colabello's mother thinks he could sustain a .411 BABIP. He's a lefty masher who can hit righties pretty well too, but he can't really defend and may find himself in a platoon with Justin Smoak. Michael Saunders and Russell Martin are the major Canadian contributors to the Toronto team, and the former will just be trying to get through one injury free season whilst the latter looks to repeat his power surge from 2015. Ryan Goins will get a chance to make second base his own, but with Devon Travis breathing down his neck from the disabled list it will only take a first half like his 2015 one to see him pulled out of the line-up.
Marcus Stroman is poised to fill his mantle as 'ace of the future', at least in terms of spot in the rotation, and the likeable pint-sized (for a pitcher) right-hander has a lot to look forward to. In 2015 he suffered an unfortunate Spring Training ACL tear which looked like it would end his season, but an aggressive rehab timetable saw him return at the end of the year and pitch well, inducing a sickening number of groundballs and making a couple of key post-season starts. ZiPS seems to expect him to miss time again, but given his arm is healthy and rested this could be the year he becomes a legitimate workhorse ace. The 41 year old R.A. Dickey has seen his knuckleball lose effectiveness in recent years with strikeouts down and home runs up, but he remains a more than serviceable innings eater who induces more weak contact than most. Another apparent patient of the Ray Searage career-changing practice, J.A. Happ saw his stuff tick up and the results to match upon his arrival in Pittsburgh in 2015 and he rode that success to a three year contract with the team that gave up on him the year before. Moving back to the AL will hurt him, but if he can continue the strikeout growth and induce some groundballs he could be a decent return on the Jays' investment.
Marco Estrada had a great 2015 season, somehow living as a fly-ball pitcher in a tiny home stadium, but his peripheral numbers got worse (strikeouts down, walks up) and so he could be in for a rough regression in 2016. His low BABIP-against may be sustainable, as he induces a lot of weak contact, but the home run regression is probably unavoidable, there may be a few ugly starts this season. Aaron Sanchez won a rotation spot on the back of a strong Spring after proving a useful bullpen piece at the end of last season. The former top prospect has the stuff to start with a live fastball and devastating curve, but his slight frame and iffy rotation results in the past point to a bullpen role. As with AL East compatriot Kevin Gausman, the high fastball may be his route to a consistent rotation spot, but if he struggles then Toronto won't hesitate to move him back to the 'pen where is a known commodity with high upside.
2015 closer sensation Roberto Osuna is being given a chance to run with the role once more in 2016, despite being just 21 years old and having precisely 21 innings of experience above rookie ball prior to last season. In Osuna's defence he looked like a fish in water in the Major Leagues, striking out a hitter per inning with three good pitches and ending the year with 20 saves. Ultimately, he may be better served in the rotation, but for 2016 there is no doubt he helps the team more in the bullpen. Big off-season acquisition Drew Storen will fill the eighth-inning void, and he will look to put a 2015 of two halves behind him. He has devastating strikeout stuff - almost 12K/9 in 2015 - but showed an alarming weakness as a set-up man in 2015 and his fly ball tendencies aren't ideal for the Rogers Centre. Keep an eye on his early season success. Brett Cecil had this third straight dominant season in 2015 and is quietly one of the best left-handers in the league. He strikes out right and left-handers alike, induces plenty of groundballs and has even cut the walks of late. He's as reliable as they get in the middle innings. Jesse Chavez, Franklin Morales and Arnold Leon will help close out a pen that has a very solid top three but may be pushed for depth at some point this year.
2016 Projection
The Blue Jays had the best run differential in baseball last year, and if not for an abysmal record in one-run games could easily have won 100 games. The line-up remains laughably good, just loaded with power threats that don't strike out as much as others as well as increasingly good defense across the diamond. The rotation is maybe lacking one top-end option, but Stroman could make a big stride forward this year whilst Happ and Sanchez have considerable upside. The bullpen should be very solid indeed, with three top-tier options although it lacks quality depth. Overall, this team is going to go as far as the rotation allows it to. It is built to win now, and with the kind of line-up that makes opposing pitchers pray for rain they are going to win most games where the other team scores less than five. In a competitive division though, a few too many starting pitching struggles and a shaky bullpen could see them struggle despite this. It's hard to see a situation where they're not at least in the race come September though.
Projected record: 97-65
Tampa Bay Rays (80-82)
Projected Opening Day Line-up
| No. | Name | Position | Projected 2016 AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Logan Forsythe | 2B | .254/.328/.397 |
| 2 | Kevin Kiermaier | CF | .265/.309/.414 |
| 3 | Evan Longoria | 3B | .260/.325/.436 |
| 4 | Corey Dickerson | LF | .260/.311/.463 |
| 5 | Desmond Jennings | RF | .246/.317/.384 |
| 6 | Logan Morrison | 1B | .241/.315/.391 |
| 7 | Steven Souza | DH | .234/.317/.408 |
| 8 | Hank Conger | C | .225/.298/.369 |
| 9 | Brad Miller | SS | .252/.316/.397 |
Projected Opening Day Rotation
| No. | Name | Projected 2016 Innings/Strikeouts/ERA |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Archer | 196/202/3.23 |
| 2 | Jake Odorizzi | 178/165/3.60 |
| 3 | Drew Smyly | 119/121/3.64 |
| 4 | Matt Moore | 109/103/4.46 |
| 5 | Erasmo Ramirez | 148/111/4.26 |
Logan Forsythe had a breakout season in 2015, putting up a surprising four wins above replacement with 17 home runs and 9 steals. Unfortunately, he is a fairly major regression candidate, as his BABIP was .323 and he had a much increased home run to fly ball rate too. In simply, he got lucky, and whilst his stats likely won't crater in 2016, a repeat season is unlikely. Kevin Keirmaier is a ridiculous defender in center field who makes things happen with his legs but he doesn't walk or hit enough to make the most of that. He has enough power that a slight tweak would make him an 8-win candidate (he put up 5.5 WAR in 2015 despite a sub-.300 OBP!) but even without that his defense makes him a guaranteed starter. Evan Longoria appears to be past his best, as three straight 160-game seasons make any argument about injury holding him back pretty hard to explain. Still, the current iteration of Longo is a pretty damn good player, hitting for a reasonable average, 20 home run power and playing an elite third base. If he can draw some walks and hit the ball with authority again, look out. Dickerson's value takes a hit in the move from Coors to Tropicana, and his ongoing battle with Plantar Fasciitis makes it hard to depend on him for more than 120 games. His production when healthy has been mesmerising however, with big time power that would make him a 30-homer candidate over a full season. The (lack of) walks, strikeouts and move from Coors could see him crate in batting average, but health is his biggest concern at the moment.
Speaking of injuries, Desmond Jennings has never been able to play more than 140 games in a season and his once top-prospect status has slowly turned into a bust. He might still have the patience, power and speed to go 15/15 and put up four wins in a full season, but his knees have become a real issue that will likely plague him again this year. Logan Morrison is pretty much the definition of 'meh', with decent enough peripherals that he could post a .340 OBP with 20 home runs but he has little defensive value and hasn't had a good offensive season... pretty much ever. Steven Souza was a three-true outcome kind of guy in limited playing time in 2015, mashing 16 home runs in 426 at-bats but also striking out 34% of the time. His plate discipline is pretty solid as displayed by his walk rate, but he just struggles to hit good pitches. The power upside is tempting, but he needs to adjust to stay in the Majors. Hank Conger can hit reasonably well for a catcher and has one of the top pitch-framing reputations in the Majors, but he is maybe the worst catcher ever at throwing out runners (1 in 43 last year). Brad Miller is a lottery ticket, a guy without much defensive value who has some power and speed but strikes out too much.
Chris Archer continued to take steps forward in 2015 and is now a legitimate front-of-the-rotation ace. His slider is just filthy, and paired with a mid-90s fastball and slowly improving change-up he has the stuff to compete for the Cy Young award. Signed to a team friendly deal, he is the bright spot of this Rays team. Jake Odorizzi is an intriguing young pitcher who gets a lot of strikeouts on a low-90s fastball and split-change but has yet to find a way to consistently retire right-handers. His command is solid but he struggles with the home run ball and whilst he is surprisingly fun to watch he might not be ready to make the jump to top starter just yet. Drew Smyly is one to watch in 2016, a fantastically effective left-hander who gets tons of strikeouts and can retire left and right-handed hitters but who has consistently battled shoulder woes and other injury problems. He'll likely be capped in 2016, but when healthy he's a legitimate number two with upside.
Matt Moore rose through the Rays system like a steam train, striking out hitters for fun and putting together two fantastic seasons in 2012 and 2013. In his return from Tommy John in 2015 however things fell apart as his never-elite control got worse and he gave up hard contact like never before. He's looked strong in Spring Training and has a number one pedigree, but a bad season in 2016 could derail a once promising career. Erasmo Ramirez has always threatened a breakout season - or at least so it seems - and at age 25 he will probably do so for a few more years. 2015 was the closest he has yet come, with a reduced walk rate and an improved ability to keep the ball in the park along with an easy career high in innings pitched. His stuff is pretty solid and he can get lefties out, so as a number five starter he actually has surprising upside and probably a higher than expected floor. He's about as good a number five as you could hope for.
The departure of Jake McGee clears the way for Brad Boxberger to re-assume his role as Tampa Bay closer, but the right-hander's hip injury means he will be out until May, although the stuff will presumably return unaffected. Alex Colomé appears primed to be given first dibs on the role in his absence, and the right hander has showcased greatly improved stuff out of the bullpen with more punchouts and fewer walks. Danny Farquhar has seen his stuff decline in recent seasons since he exploded onto the scene with a 12.77K/9 in 2013, and though the Rays have a tendency to turn bad relievers good, he is far from a reliable end-game option at this point. Xavier Cedeno will be the team's primary lefty-killer whilst Steve Geltz is a versatile bullpen arm who threw almost 70 quality innings in 2015. It's far from a killer bullpen, especially whilst Boxberger is on the DL but the Rays tend to find ways to use their bullpens craftily and they seem to be especially good at turning 28 year old minor league journeymen into dominant relievers - that being said they might need some of that magic if this bullpen is going to close games out.
2016 Projection
The Rays aren't in rebuilding mode, but they do have probably the weakest roster in the division at this point. The line-up has a lot of holes, with no starters projected to post a .330+ OBP by ZiPS and although they should play good defense you feel this team will find itself struggling to scratch out runs, especially if injuries strike. The rotation is exciting and young, with a legitimate ace, a couple of number two-upside starters and some decent lottery ticket options at the back-end including current AAA starter Blake Snell who was fantastic last season. The bullpen is a bit of a mess, especially with Boxberger out and could find the Rays losing the games it tends to pride itself on - the close/late affairs. That said, the rotation makes the floor of this team reasonably high, although a season not unlike that the Indians had in 2015 feels likely.
Chris Archer continued to take steps forward in 2015 and is now a legitimate front-of-the-rotation ace. His slider is just filthy, and paired with a mid-90s fastball and slowly improving change-up he has the stuff to compete for the Cy Young award. Signed to a team friendly deal, he is the bright spot of this Rays team. Jake Odorizzi is an intriguing young pitcher who gets a lot of strikeouts on a low-90s fastball and split-change but has yet to find a way to consistently retire right-handers. His command is solid but he struggles with the home run ball and whilst he is surprisingly fun to watch he might not be ready to make the jump to top starter just yet. Drew Smyly is one to watch in 2016, a fantastically effective left-hander who gets tons of strikeouts and can retire left and right-handed hitters but who has consistently battled shoulder woes and other injury problems. He'll likely be capped in 2016, but when healthy he's a legitimate number two with upside.
Matt Moore rose through the Rays system like a steam train, striking out hitters for fun and putting together two fantastic seasons in 2012 and 2013. In his return from Tommy John in 2015 however things fell apart as his never-elite control got worse and he gave up hard contact like never before. He's looked strong in Spring Training and has a number one pedigree, but a bad season in 2016 could derail a once promising career. Erasmo Ramirez has always threatened a breakout season - or at least so it seems - and at age 25 he will probably do so for a few more years. 2015 was the closest he has yet come, with a reduced walk rate and an improved ability to keep the ball in the park along with an easy career high in innings pitched. His stuff is pretty solid and he can get lefties out, so as a number five starter he actually has surprising upside and probably a higher than expected floor. He's about as good a number five as you could hope for.
The departure of Jake McGee clears the way for Brad Boxberger to re-assume his role as Tampa Bay closer, but the right-hander's hip injury means he will be out until May, although the stuff will presumably return unaffected. Alex Colomé appears primed to be given first dibs on the role in his absence, and the right hander has showcased greatly improved stuff out of the bullpen with more punchouts and fewer walks. Danny Farquhar has seen his stuff decline in recent seasons since he exploded onto the scene with a 12.77K/9 in 2013, and though the Rays have a tendency to turn bad relievers good, he is far from a reliable end-game option at this point. Xavier Cedeno will be the team's primary lefty-killer whilst Steve Geltz is a versatile bullpen arm who threw almost 70 quality innings in 2015. It's far from a killer bullpen, especially whilst Boxberger is on the DL but the Rays tend to find ways to use their bullpens craftily and they seem to be especially good at turning 28 year old minor league journeymen into dominant relievers - that being said they might need some of that magic if this bullpen is going to close games out.
2016 Projection
The Rays aren't in rebuilding mode, but they do have probably the weakest roster in the division at this point. The line-up has a lot of holes, with no starters projected to post a .330+ OBP by ZiPS and although they should play good defense you feel this team will find itself struggling to scratch out runs, especially if injuries strike. The rotation is exciting and young, with a legitimate ace, a couple of number two-upside starters and some decent lottery ticket options at the back-end including current AAA starter Blake Snell who was fantastic last season. The bullpen is a bit of a mess, especially with Boxberger out and could find the Rays losing the games it tends to pride itself on - the close/late affairs. That said, the rotation makes the floor of this team reasonably high, although a season not unlike that the Indians had in 2015 feels likely.
Projected record: 78-84
Boston Red Sox (78-84)
Projected Opening Day Line-up
| No. | Name | Position | Projected 2016 AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mookie Betts | RF | .297/.355/.474 |
| 2 | Dustin Pedroia | 2B | .279/.339/.398 |
| 3 | David Ortiz | DH | .264/.350/.523 |
| 4 | Xander Bogaerts | SS | .289/.332/.415 |
| 5 | Hanley Ramirez | 1B | .277/.358/.449 |
| 6 | Travis Shaw | 3B | .238/.305/.393 |
| 7 | Brock Holt | LF | .277/.333/.367 |
| 8 | Blake Swihart | C | .252/.297/.371 |
| 9 | Jackie Bradley | CF | .247/.319/.405 |
Projected Opening Day Rotation
| No. | Name | Projected 2016 Innings/Strikeouts/ERA |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Price | 210/211/3.35 |
| 2 | Clay Buchholz | 127/109/3.91 |
| 3 | Rick Porcello | 188/140/4.18 |
| 4 | Joe Kelly | 127/103/4.26 |
| 5 | Steven Wright | 110/78/4.58 |
In one and one-third Major League seasons, Mookie Betts has been consistently great. He has meagre strike rates and good speed which propels a consistently solid batting average, he walks enough to post .350 OBPs and he has enough power and pace to be an easy 20/20 candidate. At the age of 23 and already a five-win player, there could be MVP-calibre seasons in store for the versatile phenomenon. Indeed, Dustin Pedroia could be a reasonable comparison. Pedroia's days of 20/20 are almost certainly over, but he remains a four-win player over a full season with strong defence, contact excellence and it's just health that is the biggest question mark in his age-32 season. David Ortiz 2016 season is going to be a long, drawn out farewell tour but the 40 year old just won't stop hitting. Another .250/.350/.500 year feels inevitable, even as father time finally catches up to the Red Sox legend. Xander Bogaerts had a shockingly successful 2015 campaign, hitting at a .320 clip but with just seven home runs after he placed a clear emphasis on an all-fields approach, cutting strikeouts by 8%. He was a renowned power bat in the Minors, so if he can find a fair balance between contact and pop he could be a stud at the plate.
Hanley's return to the Red Sox last season was an unmitigated disaster as he scuffled at the plate and suffered through injury, all the while playing one of the most atrocious left fields Fenway has seen. When he's healthy he can hit, and the Red Sox are hoping a move to first base can keep him healthy as well as reduce the damage his glove does in the field. 2015 should be considered the floor, but at this point who knows the ceiling. Travis Shaw acquitted himself well to the Majors in 2015 and outplayed Pablo Sandoval in Spring Training enough to earn the starting third base gig. Never a top prospect, his minor league track record suggests he can hit, and the power (albeit in a short sample) was impressive in the Majors last year. ZiPS is down on his chances for success and as the league adjusts he will have to catch up, but there's no reason he can't hit for a decent average with some pop. Brock Holt is the least sexiest player of all time but that makes him utterly awesome because he plays every position pretty well and hits the ball, nothing more nothing less. Every team wants a Brockstar. Swihart had a reasonably good debut year in Boston but will be fighting for starts with defensive whiz Christian Vazquez, whilst Jackie Bradley Jr. showcased some power in 2015 but needs to improve with the bat to match his gold glove center field.
David Price was the marquee off-season signing for the Red Sox, agreeing to a seven year deal after another very solid season at the front of the Tigers then Blue Jays rotations. Price is a legitimate workhorse, logging at least 208 innings every year since 2010 and he hasn't been worth less than 4.2 wins over that period. He seems to be getting better if anything of late, with an elite fastball/change-up combination that plays up thanks to his incredible command. Price just oozes consistency and a move to the AL East is nothing new, pencil him in as one of the Majors best starters once again. Clay Buchholz has been on the periphery of a number two starter for years but has never stayed healthy enough to prove it. When he's fit, he's pretty good, but 200 innings feels a distant possibility at this point.
Rick Porcello had a hugely disappointing first campaign with the Red Sox, struggling to the worst groundball rate of his career as he posted a 4.92 ERA. There are some silver linings though, particularly an improved strikeout rate and some excellent second-half peripherals and at age 27 he has time to turn the ugly contract around - but Red Sox fans will be forgiven for having a short leash this year. Joe Kelly's 95mph fastball has some people just waiting for him to figure it out and become an ace, but in truth he has never been a strikeout artist and his control issues continue to hold him back too. If he can strike out some guys and generate ground balls he can be a reasonable innings-eater but time is running out for him to take a step forward. Steven Wright appears to have a rotation spot to start the year and as a knuckleballer he's always going to be fun to watch but at this point he's nothing but an innings-eater and should be treated as such by the Red Sox. Eduardo Rodriguez will likely slot in at some point too and the young leftie has some upside with a 94mph and solid change-up but could struggle with walks and home runs.
Craig Kimbrel was acquired from the Padres over the winter and is an obvious upgrade to any bullpen, never mind one that struggled in 2015 like the Red Sox. Kimbrel had his 'worst' season yet in the Majors last year, although when your worst season constitutes a 2.58 ERA you realise how high the bar is set. The increasing walks is a concern, but he continues to strike guys out and the home run misfortune should correct itself. He's going to be just fine in the 9th. At 41, Uehara will continue to work at the back end of games with the Sox, and though his effectiveness slipped in 2015, he should be good for one more season of low-velocity, splitter-heavy, high-five slapping brilliance at the back end of games. Junichi Tazawa has been a reliable workhorse for the Red Sox in recent seasons but struggled in 2015, even when thrust into the closer's role for the first time. Assuming his arm is fine, he should be a good bet to bounce back, especially in a lower leverage role. Carson Smith was acquired from the Mariners over the off-season and after striking out nearly a third of hitters in 2015 he provides another elite arm to this bullpen when he gets healthy. Robbie Ross was quietly one of the not-so-awful Boston arms in 2014 and he will return as the primary left-hander, albeit in a lower leverage role. Overall, this bullpen is a huge improvement over the 2015 iteration, and whilst health is vital they should have more than enough to close out leads.
2016 Projection
The Red Sox are always in win-now mode and after coming dead last in the AL East in 2015 their fans will be hungry for success this season. The line-up returns much the same but remains strong - the hitting wasn't a problem in 2015 - and growth from the likes of Betts and Jackie Bradley plus a full season of health from Pedroia and Ramirez could easily make it better. David Price is a huge addition to a staff that really missed Lester in 2015, but the quality of depth behind him remains questionable at best. How the back of the rotation fares will be critically important for the Red Sox success, and if Porcello and Kelly can take even the smallest stride forward it would be a huge bonus for a staff that has struggled hugely in recent years. The bullpen is shut-down, at least on paper, and the Red Sox farm system is loaded with talent that could help later in the season either on the field or through a trade. Dave Dombrowski wants to win and win now, and he's built three-quarters of a winning team. If the patched up rotation that complete the deal, this is a 95 win team waiting to happen. I'll take the under, for now.
Projected record: 92-70
Baltimore Orioles (81-81)
Projected Opening Day Line-up
| No. | Name | Position | Projected 2016 AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manny Machado | 3B | .288/.359/.497 |
| 2 | Adam Jones | CF | .276/.312/.479 |
| 3 | Chris Davis | RF | .265/.350/.556 |
| 4 | Mark Trumbo | 1B | .258/.311/.485 |
| 5 | Matt Wieters | C | .254/.308/.427 |
| 6 | Pedro Alvarez | DH | .237/.312/.454 |
| 7 | J.J. Hardy | SS | .247/.283/.358 |
| 8 | Jonathan Schoop | 2B | .262/.295/.442 |
| 9 | Joey Rickard | LF | .231/.307/.310 |
Projected Opening Day Rotation
| No. | Name | Projected 2016 Innings/Strikeouts/ERA |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yovani Gallardo | 166/108/4.28 |
| 2 | Ubaldo Jimenez | 158/143/4.29 |
| 3 | Chris Tillman | 175/133/4.38 |
| 4 | Mike Wright | 131/88/4.82 |
| 5 | Kevin Gausman | 153/126/4.14 |
Manny Machado came out of (kind of) nowhere in 2015, living up to his former top-prospect pedigree and then some as he mashed 35 home runs, improving his walk, strikeout and batted ball distance rates. Put simply, it wasn't a fluke, and if he continues to improve then we're watching a perennial MVP candidate. The 23 year old is a special player. Adam Jones has been a consistent middle-of-the-order slugger for Baltimore for several years now, and whilst his walk rates remain laughably low, his high contact and power skills make up for mediocre OBPs. Now 30, the decline is coming but Jones should be good for another 30-homer season. Chris Davis bounced back from a miserable 2014 campaign to post an MLB-leading 47 homer year in 2015 and resigned with the O's as he will look to continue to crush dingers and walk enough to offset 30% strikeout rates. Mark Trumbo is a similar hitter, without the elite walk rate but with a few less strikeouts, and after a miserable couple of injury-plagued seasons in 2014 and 2015 he will try to get back on course in Baltimore. 30 home runs doesn't feel out of the question at all.
Once top-prospect Matt Wieters is now 29 years old and is 18 months removed from Tommy John Surgery, making him more volatile than we have come to expect in 2016. He has great power for a catcher, with three straight 20 homer seasons from 2011-2013 but in limited time last season the strikeouts increased and the power did not. Now fully healthy and rust shaken off, he'll look to recover his pre-surgery form. Pedro Alvarez is another huge power, huge strikeouts slugger (bit of a theme there) in this line-up, with 111 home runs over the past four years despite never hitting over .244. In Baltimore the power prospect is enticing but he'll need to improve walk rates if he wants to avoid being another OBP black hole in this line-up. J.J. Hardy remains a solid defensive shortstop but his bat has cratered in recent seasons as he posted a pathetic .253 OBP in 2015. He should regress, if only because it's impossible to hit any worse, but the 25 home run seasons are a thing of the past. Jonathan Schoop may only draw a walk once a month, but the power is legit for a middle infielder and he showed signs of an all-fields approach in 2015 which could make him a break-out candidate for 2016, whilst Joey Rickard is a rule 5 pick who did well to make the team out of Spring Training but is unlikely to provide a whole lot of value over the course of the season.
The rotation will be led by Yovani Gallardo who was team-less heading into Spring Training as the qualifying offer compensation put teams off and depressed his market. Signed to a two-year deal which impressed no-one, he remains a consistent rotation arm having logged at least 180 innings and an ERA between 3.40 and 4.18 every year since 2009. The depressed strikeout rate version we saw in 2015 was concerning, but he draws enough groundballs and restricts home runs enough to at least chew some innings in Baltimore. Ubaldo Jimenez is probably the first guy in history to go from ace to number three starter after leaving Coors Field, but the 2015 iteration was the best he has done since his Rockies days. The walks were at their lowest ever mark (though still not low) and the strikeouts remained steady making him a... dare I say... reliable option for the O's this season? He is durable and actually has room for upside after last season so I'm going to go out and say it, the O's can rely on Ubaldo this year... ugh.
Chris Tillman is another name that makes you wince when you see he is the starting pitcher that night, but he has reasonable strikeout rates, has shown as ability to suppress BABIP and will hope for a bounce-back from a disappointing 2015. Reportedly flashing renewed velocity early this season, a throwback to 2012 season for Tillman would be pretty useful for the O's this year. Mike Wright had given up zero earned runs through his first 14 innings of Major League action which makes his 6.04 ERA after 44 innings rather impressive. He has no real right on a contending team's rotation, but yet there he is, plugged in as the fourth starter on the Orioles. Kevin Gausman is injured to start the season but he is more interesting to write about than the dumpster fire of a fifth starter candidate-pool behind him and should be back in a couple of weeks. Gausman has been messed around with since 2014, spending time in the Majors and in AAA, in the rotation and in the bullpen but despite never really having a solid role he has shown steady improvements in strikeout and walk rates which bodes well for 2016. An electric fastball and devastating splitter give him two-thirds of an ace's repertoire, so if he can work another breaking ball in there then he could have the highest upside in the whole rotation. As it is, another season of steady progression would be a good sign for the 25 year old.
Zach Britton's sinker is the kind of pitch that makes hitters wake up in a cold sweat and his infield defence write love poems. It's a sickening pitch, a 96mph offering that generates (I swear this is real) an 82% groundball rate and 15% swinging strike rate. I bet you thought all sinkers were boring. Zach Britton's sinker is not boring. I could tell you more about his elite slider to go with it but you don't care, you've already started frantically checking your internet history to delete any mention of Zach Britton's sinker because Zach Britton's sinker is so filthy. Speaking of elite groundball rates, Darren O'Day does some of that sinker stuff too, albeit not to the same degree. His 'rising' fastball generates enough swings and misses to make him a genuine strikeout threat too, and although he has an issue with left-handers his results have only gotten better in recent seasons so I'm not concerned. T.J. MacFarland is yet another groundball machine, this time from the left-side who should operated as the primary southpaw (Britton aside) in the Baltimore pen whilst Mychal Givens was one of the best relievers in baseball in a limited 2015 stint and should be similarly fantastic in a full time role in 2016. All these options are to say nothing for leftie-killer Brian Matusz who starts 2016 on the DL but will return soon as well as former top prospect Dylan Bundy who will try to put a sickening injury history behind him from the pen. It might not get the fanfare of the Yankee bullpen but this relief corps is stacked.
2016 Projection
The Orioles line-up contains a potential MVP candidate and four good bets for 30-homer production as well as a solid infield defence. Unfortunately, it could also lead the Majors in strikeouts (they were 5th in 2015) and there are some serious OBP holes that could see this team hitting a few too many solo home runs. The rotation also has serious question marks with three journeymen leading the charge (albeit with some upside) and a back-end that relies heavily on some genuine progress from promising young right-hander Kevin Gausman. There are some exciting young arms in the system, particularly Hunter Harvey and the excellence of the bullpen should take some pressure off the rotation to throw over 1,000 innings this year. Ultimately, there are some exciting pieces for this Baltimore team, but they haven't improved drastically from last year's version except in the power department and so could be looking at another 'not quite' season.
Chris Tillman is another name that makes you wince when you see he is the starting pitcher that night, but he has reasonable strikeout rates, has shown as ability to suppress BABIP and will hope for a bounce-back from a disappointing 2015. Reportedly flashing renewed velocity early this season, a throwback to 2012 season for Tillman would be pretty useful for the O's this year. Mike Wright had given up zero earned runs through his first 14 innings of Major League action which makes his 6.04 ERA after 44 innings rather impressive. He has no real right on a contending team's rotation, but yet there he is, plugged in as the fourth starter on the Orioles. Kevin Gausman is injured to start the season but he is more interesting to write about than the dumpster fire of a fifth starter candidate-pool behind him and should be back in a couple of weeks. Gausman has been messed around with since 2014, spending time in the Majors and in AAA, in the rotation and in the bullpen but despite never really having a solid role he has shown steady improvements in strikeout and walk rates which bodes well for 2016. An electric fastball and devastating splitter give him two-thirds of an ace's repertoire, so if he can work another breaking ball in there then he could have the highest upside in the whole rotation. As it is, another season of steady progression would be a good sign for the 25 year old.
Zach Britton's sinker is the kind of pitch that makes hitters wake up in a cold sweat and his infield defence write love poems. It's a sickening pitch, a 96mph offering that generates (I swear this is real) an 82% groundball rate and 15% swinging strike rate. I bet you thought all sinkers were boring. Zach Britton's sinker is not boring. I could tell you more about his elite slider to go with it but you don't care, you've already started frantically checking your internet history to delete any mention of Zach Britton's sinker because Zach Britton's sinker is so filthy. Speaking of elite groundball rates, Darren O'Day does some of that sinker stuff too, albeit not to the same degree. His 'rising' fastball generates enough swings and misses to make him a genuine strikeout threat too, and although he has an issue with left-handers his results have only gotten better in recent seasons so I'm not concerned. T.J. MacFarland is yet another groundball machine, this time from the left-side who should operated as the primary southpaw (Britton aside) in the Baltimore pen whilst Mychal Givens was one of the best relievers in baseball in a limited 2015 stint and should be similarly fantastic in a full time role in 2016. All these options are to say nothing for leftie-killer Brian Matusz who starts 2016 on the DL but will return soon as well as former top prospect Dylan Bundy who will try to put a sickening injury history behind him from the pen. It might not get the fanfare of the Yankee bullpen but this relief corps is stacked.
2016 Projection
The Orioles line-up contains a potential MVP candidate and four good bets for 30-homer production as well as a solid infield defence. Unfortunately, it could also lead the Majors in strikeouts (they were 5th in 2015) and there are some serious OBP holes that could see this team hitting a few too many solo home runs. The rotation also has serious question marks with three journeymen leading the charge (albeit with some upside) and a back-end that relies heavily on some genuine progress from promising young right-hander Kevin Gausman. There are some exciting young arms in the system, particularly Hunter Harvey and the excellence of the bullpen should take some pressure off the rotation to throw over 1,000 innings this year. Ultimately, there are some exciting pieces for this Baltimore team, but they haven't improved drastically from last year's version except in the power department and so could be looking at another 'not quite' season.
Projected record: 87-75
New York Yankees (87-75)
Projected Opening Day Line-up
| No. | Name | Position | Projected 2016 AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacoby Ellsbury | CF | .269/.324/.383 |
| 2 | Brett Gardner | LF | .256/.330/.405 |
| 3 | Carlos Beltran | RF | .252/.311/.429 |
| 4 | Mark Teixeira | 1B | .238/.331/.464 |
| 5 | Alex Rodriguez | DH | .237/.331/.449 |
| 6 | Brian McCann | C | .245/.317/.432 |
| 7 | Chase Headley | 3B | .251/.329/.398 |
| 8 | Starlin Castro | 2B | .274/.310/.405 |
| 9 | Didi Gregorius | SS | .257/.317/.379 |
Projected Opening Day Rotation
| No. | Name | Projected 2016 Innings/Strikeouts/ERA |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Masahiro Tanaka | 158/147/3.82 |
| 2 | Michael Pineda | 122/109/3.86 |
| 3 | Luis Severino | 154/147/3.80 |
| 4 | Nathan Eovaldi | 147/127/4.24 |
| 5 | CC Sabathia | 125/104/4.98 |
I'll be honest, I never really registered how remarkably good Jacoby Ellsbury's 2011 season was - 32 home runs, 39 steals and 9.4 wins above replacement. That's nuts! The bad news is, he won't be doing that again any time soon, but the good news is 2016 Ellsbury should be better than 2015 Ellsbury. Last year, Ellsbury struggled with injuries through a woeful second half, and although in his age-31 season injuries are going to be more prevalent, I think his skill-set remains that of a .330 OBP guy with 15 homer power and 30 steal speed. Another poor season would set alarm bells off though. Gardner too will begin to feel the effects of old age on a speed-reliant player, and though he now has decent pop to go with his legs, the strikeouts remain a concern and he could be squeezed for playing time in a crowded outfield. "And they thought they were old", croaks a weary Carlos Beltran, now nearly 39 years of age but still with enough life in his bat to warrant a middle-of-the-order spot after pinging 19 home runs last season. He might be forced into a platoon or even dropped from the line-up altogether if top prospect Aaron Judge continues to rake in the Minors but in what may be the final hurrah of a glittering career Beltran at least has the incumbency.
Teixeira turns 36 in a few days but his impressive power performance in 2015 shows there is still something left in the tank. His health and defense aren't what they used to be but his bat remains very potent indeed. A-Rod continues to lead the league in boo's per at-bat and is maybe the most universally hated player in the league, but considering he put up 9.2 wins above replacement exactly twenty years ago you can't help but respect the guy. He's old, strikes out a lot and can't play the field but as long as he hits home runs he's an asset. Brian McCann has solidified his position as one of the top power-hitting catchers in the game since his move to the Bronx with 49 home runs over the past two years and another season of 25ish home runs seems likely. The shift will erode at his batting average but he did walk (and strike out) a bit more in 2015 which gives him some on-base value too. Chase Headley is about as unsexy as third basemen get and whilst he didn't hurt the Yankees last year he isn't much of an asset for them at this point, whilst Castro and Gregorius are two younger-than-you-think middle infielders that can hit for average with a bit of power/speed but are allergic to the walk.
Masahiro Tanaka has had Yankee fans watching his starts through their fingers ever since he turned down Tommy John surgery in favour of rehab on his partially torn UCL in 2014 but to his credit he pitched almost as effectively for 154 innings in 2015. He still has a deadly splitter, doesn't walk anyone and has not suffered a drop in velocity in spite of his injury so whilst his arm stays in tact he should be productive. He remains a fairly scary TJ surgery risk though. Michael Pineda took a huge step forward in 2015, staying healthy all year and returning results just as productive as his breakout 2011 season. He has tremendous control which limits the damage that the high number of hits he allows does and gets enough strikeouts to point towards even more upside. Health remains his biggest question mark. Considering his tremendous results in a big-league taster at age 21 last season, Yankee fans can be forgiven for feeling giddy about the future of Luis Severino. A bit of adjustments with control is required, and his innings will almost certainly be capped but Severino has the stuff to be a future ace and a very solid number three this year.
Nathan Eovaldi had the second highest average fastball velocity in the Majors last season, and his second half development of a splitter as well as his tender age of 26 points towards huge upside. We've heard this story before though, and a repeat of 2015 would be far from a disaster for a guy who generates a lot of groundballs and has proven particularly durable on a rotation that could use an innings-eater. C.C. Sabathia's decline has been in full force since 2013 and his current effectiveness is particularly low as he gives up hard contact both on line drives and fly balls over the fence, doesn't strike many people out and has dealt with knee and shoulder issues in recent seasons. His contract remains a fairly horrific eyesore, but given his off-the-field issues with alcoholism and years of previous exceptional performance it would take a real baseball grinch to do anything but root for Sabathia in what may end up his final season in the Majors.
The Yankees bullpen was a thing of legend before it had even thrown a pitch in 2016, and it is not hard to see why. The off-season acquisition of Aroldis Chapman was marred slightly by his domestic abuse charges and subsequent 30 game suspension, but Chapman remains one of the best relievers in the game thanks to a K/9 that hovers somewhere around 16 which might have something to do with the fastball that hovers somewhere around 101. 'Demoted' to a set-up role, but closing to start the season, will be Andrew Miller the second best left-handed reliever both on his team and in the Majors. Over the last two seasons, Miller has racked up 203 strikeouts in 124 innings along with a 2.03 ERA and 1.83 FIP. He'll probably be just fine in the closer's role once again. Dellin Betances is another ridiculous freak of a relief pitcher, with a 100mph fastball and the best curveball in baseball but perhaps most valuably to the Yankees he has been a bullpen workhorse, throwing 174 innings over the past two seasons, frequently in multi-inning bursts. In case the three best relievers in baseball need an inning of rest, the Yanks also have top left-handed option Chasen Shreve as well as Ivan Nova in a long-relief role. It's a loaded pen to start the year and it just gets laughably good when Chapman returns, so this could be a record-breaking year for the Yankees relief bunch.
2016 Projection
The Yankees line-up has some decent power sluggers as well as a couple of bounce-back candidates at the top of the line-up but it remains an ageing team without a clear MVP-calibre player. The acquisition of Castro was shrewd, and the Yankees have some impact bats ready to slot in on the farm but if some of the older players struggle with injuries or inconsistency this line-up will lack the pop of the Red Sox or Blue Jays. The rotation has some starters with real upside, especially Pineda and Severino, although again there are some health question marks and the right arm of Tanaka will be extremely important to the success of the staff. Fortunately, they are being ably supported by the best bullpen in baseball who are going to shut out a lot of games and strike out a lot of hitters so the margin for error is a big bigger than on most teams. The Yankees have enough on the roster to be a wildcard threat once again, but the productivity of its line-up and health of the rotation will dictate just how far they go in the division.
Nathan Eovaldi had the second highest average fastball velocity in the Majors last season, and his second half development of a splitter as well as his tender age of 26 points towards huge upside. We've heard this story before though, and a repeat of 2015 would be far from a disaster for a guy who generates a lot of groundballs and has proven particularly durable on a rotation that could use an innings-eater. C.C. Sabathia's decline has been in full force since 2013 and his current effectiveness is particularly low as he gives up hard contact both on line drives and fly balls over the fence, doesn't strike many people out and has dealt with knee and shoulder issues in recent seasons. His contract remains a fairly horrific eyesore, but given his off-the-field issues with alcoholism and years of previous exceptional performance it would take a real baseball grinch to do anything but root for Sabathia in what may end up his final season in the Majors.
The Yankees bullpen was a thing of legend before it had even thrown a pitch in 2016, and it is not hard to see why. The off-season acquisition of Aroldis Chapman was marred slightly by his domestic abuse charges and subsequent 30 game suspension, but Chapman remains one of the best relievers in the game thanks to a K/9 that hovers somewhere around 16 which might have something to do with the fastball that hovers somewhere around 101. 'Demoted' to a set-up role, but closing to start the season, will be Andrew Miller the second best left-handed reliever both on his team and in the Majors. Over the last two seasons, Miller has racked up 203 strikeouts in 124 innings along with a 2.03 ERA and 1.83 FIP. He'll probably be just fine in the closer's role once again. Dellin Betances is another ridiculous freak of a relief pitcher, with a 100mph fastball and the best curveball in baseball but perhaps most valuably to the Yankees he has been a bullpen workhorse, throwing 174 innings over the past two seasons, frequently in multi-inning bursts. In case the three best relievers in baseball need an inning of rest, the Yanks also have top left-handed option Chasen Shreve as well as Ivan Nova in a long-relief role. It's a loaded pen to start the year and it just gets laughably good when Chapman returns, so this could be a record-breaking year for the Yankees relief bunch.
2016 Projection
The Yankees line-up has some decent power sluggers as well as a couple of bounce-back candidates at the top of the line-up but it remains an ageing team without a clear MVP-calibre player. The acquisition of Castro was shrewd, and the Yankees have some impact bats ready to slot in on the farm but if some of the older players struggle with injuries or inconsistency this line-up will lack the pop of the Red Sox or Blue Jays. The rotation has some starters with real upside, especially Pineda and Severino, although again there are some health question marks and the right arm of Tanaka will be extremely important to the success of the staff. Fortunately, they are being ably supported by the best bullpen in baseball who are going to shut out a lot of games and strike out a lot of hitters so the margin for error is a big bigger than on most teams. The Yankees have enough on the roster to be a wildcard threat once again, but the productivity of its line-up and health of the rotation will dictate just how far they go in the division.
Projected record: 84-78
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The AL East is set to be a competitive division once again in 2016, although I think the Blue Jays have the best line-up and enough pitching depth to be favourites to win back-to-back titles. The Red Sox look great on paper, but it wouldn't be the first time they have failed to live up to expectations. Behind Price and a loaded line-up it would shock me if they weren't at least in with a shot at a wildcard spot in September. The Yankees have a ridiculous bullpen and a pretty solid rotation, but the line-up is old and largely on the decline whilst injuries look like they could derail any division hunt. That said, they could easily win 90 games. The O's have a lot of power but not much else outside an underrated bullpen and so could be in for another season around .500, whilst the Rays are the only team I feel confident to predict will finish with a losing record. As long as we get some more outrageous Jose Bautista bat flips, David Ortiz hyperbole and Yankee bullpen insanity it should be a good season to be an AL East fan.
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