-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Chicago White Sox (76-86)
Projected Opening Day Line-up
| No. | Name | Position | Projected 2016 AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adam Eaton | CF | .277/.352/.400 |
| 2 | Brett Lawrie | 2B | .255/.310/.406 |
| 3 | Jose Abreu | 1B | .285/.352/.505 |
| 4 | Todd Frazier | 3B | .255/.318/.449 |
| 5 | Melky Cabrera | DH | .281/.325/.403 |
| 6 | Austin Jackson | LF | .261/.315/.392 |
| 7 | Alex Avila | C | .203/.321/.336 |
| 8 | Avisail Garcia | RF | .265/.311/.394 |
| 9 | Jimmy Rollins | SS | .236/.308/.376 |
Projected Opening Day Rotation
| No. | Name | Projected 2016 Innings/Strikeouts/ERA |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Sale | 196/241/2.99 |
| 2 | Jose Quintana | 196/166/3.73 |
| 3 | Carlos Rodon | 159/169/3.81 |
| 4 | John Danks | 166/114/4.88 |
| 5 | Mat Latos | 132/108/4.65 |
The White Sox sport an entirely revamped infield in 2016, but their primary weakness from 2015 remains: a team-wide inability to get on base with any kind of consistency. Adam Eaton is probably the best hitter on the team not named Jose Abreu, with strong contact and on-base skills that allow him to access his speed on the bases and a bit of power from the left-side. He's a good lead-off man. Brett Lawrie has done nothing but disappoint since his exciting 2011 debut and having been acquired by the White Sox he will be given a chance to showcase his reasonable right-handed power at second base. Ultimately though, he strikes out too much and walks too little. Abreu has been superb in two seasons in the Majors, although he declined almost everywhere last year (which was to be expected after his incredible 2014 campaign).
Frazier was the biggest acquisition of the off-season, in a three-team trade from the Reds, but he fell off the table after starting the season as one of the best third basemen in the league. He rarely walks and so unless he has good luck with BABIP or fly balls it's hard to see him put up an OBP north of .320. Austin Jackson and Alex Avila are both ex-Tigers that appear to be past their peak, but they will at least help out a previously woeful White Sox defense. Garcia is being given one last chance to come through on his top prospect status, but having compiled negative-two wins in his Major League career so far it doesn't look good whilst Jimmy Rollins will stave off retirement for one more season with below league-average offense and declining raw speed and power. There's some upside to this line-up, and big seasons from Cabrera and Frazier would make this line-up more formidable but right now this is not an intimidating offensive group.
Frazier was the biggest acquisition of the off-season, in a three-team trade from the Reds, but he fell off the table after starting the season as one of the best third basemen in the league. He rarely walks and so unless he has good luck with BABIP or fly balls it's hard to see him put up an OBP north of .320. Austin Jackson and Alex Avila are both ex-Tigers that appear to be past their peak, but they will at least help out a previously woeful White Sox defense. Garcia is being given one last chance to come through on his top prospect status, but having compiled negative-two wins in his Major League career so far it doesn't look good whilst Jimmy Rollins will stave off retirement for one more season with below league-average offense and declining raw speed and power. There's some upside to this line-up, and big seasons from Cabrera and Frazier would make this line-up more formidable but right now this is not an intimidating offensive group.
The rotation is left-hand heavy, but that isn't really a problem when the guy leading it is one of the best pitchers in baseball. Chris Sale celebrates his 27th birthday today (Happy Birthday Chris!) and has improved season on season since 2011. His strikeout and walk rates were both stupidly elite in 2015, and an improved defense behind him will push that ERA well below 3. Health concerns continue to fade with every 200-inning season he logs, and at this point the sky is the limit for the talented southpaw. Behind him is the less regarded but extremely effective Jose Quintana who has compiled 13.4 wins above replacement over the past three seasons with 200 innings in each. He strikes hitters out, he doesn't walk many and he keeps the ball in the ballpark, he's a quiet but effective number two for this team.
Carlos Rodon didn't turn heads in the way that other young pitchers did in 2015, but he was absolute death to left-handed hitters and began to make strides with a change-up too. That fastball-slider combo gives him a relatively high floor and if he can harness his control and develop that change-up then he could be a number-one calibre starter. John Danks is boring but useful, in that he eats up innings with painfully average results and peripherals. He's not going to win many games single-handedly but he should quietly be a useful back-end option for the Sox. Mat Latos had a torrid 2015 season, bouncing from Miami to both LA teams with poor results everywhere. The raw stuff remains unchanged though, and on a bargain deal the change in scenery might allow him to get back to his impressive 2013 results. There isn't a lot of depth beyond these starters, but if the front three can stay healthy then this is a top quality staff.
Carlos Rodon didn't turn heads in the way that other young pitchers did in 2015, but he was absolute death to left-handed hitters and began to make strides with a change-up too. That fastball-slider combo gives him a relatively high floor and if he can harness his control and develop that change-up then he could be a number-one calibre starter. John Danks is boring but useful, in that he eats up innings with painfully average results and peripherals. He's not going to win many games single-handedly but he should quietly be a useful back-end option for the Sox. Mat Latos had a torrid 2015 season, bouncing from Miami to both LA teams with poor results everywhere. The raw stuff remains unchanged though, and on a bargain deal the change in scenery might allow him to get back to his impressive 2013 results. There isn't a lot of depth beyond these starters, but if the front three can stay healthy then this is a top quality staff.
David Robertson will lead the pen once again for the White Sox, and though his 2015 performance may look disappointing on the surface, Robertson's underlying stats - particularly strikeout and walk rates - remain elite. He had an issue with home runs which may persevere as a fly ball pitcher in a small ballpark but his leash will be long and he has the pure stuff to be a dominant ninth inning man. Jake Petricka will hope the revamped infield defense helps his cause as a groundball pitcher as his strikeout rate is far from elite, whilst Zach Duke will continue to serve as the primary leftie in the pen after a solid if unspectacular 2014 campaign.
Zach Putnam took a step back in 2015 after a dominant 2014 season, but the strikeout rate remains high and so an increase in groundballs and a bit of good fortune would make him a solid right-handed option at the back end of games. As with a lot of White Sox relievers though, the home run ball remains a concern. Nate Jones has struggled with injuries over the past two seasons, but flashed overpowering stuff in a short 2015 cameo and could have the best raw stuff outside Robertson in the 'pen, with a high-90's heater and low-90's slider. Overall, the bullpen has decent upside and if it can limit the home run ball it should be a reliable innings eater at the back end of games. There's some volatility in pretty much every arm in this bullpen, but an improved infield defense should help ease some of the pain on balls in play.
Zach Putnam took a step back in 2015 after a dominant 2014 season, but the strikeout rate remains high and so an increase in groundballs and a bit of good fortune would make him a solid right-handed option at the back end of games. As with a lot of White Sox relievers though, the home run ball remains a concern. Nate Jones has struggled with injuries over the past two seasons, but flashed overpowering stuff in a short 2015 cameo and could have the best raw stuff outside Robertson in the 'pen, with a high-90's heater and low-90's slider. Overall, the bullpen has decent upside and if it can limit the home run ball it should be a reliable innings eater at the back end of games. There's some volatility in pretty much every arm in this bullpen, but an improved infield defense should help ease some of the pain on balls in play.
2016 Projection
There are a lot of people who are bullish on the White Sox' chances after an aggressive off-season, but I don't see a team that will be particularly improved from 2015. The line-up remains weak, dependent on the production of Jose Abreu and without guys who can get on base and score runs. The rotation is a real strength, behind Sale, Quintana and Rodon there is a lot of cause for optimism, especially as the latter develops, although the back-end of the group has considerable question marks over effectiveness and clubhouse chemistry. The bullpen is fine, with several bounceback candidates, but unless the likes of Cabrera, Frazier, Lawrie and Garcia can live up to their potential, this is a team that is going to fall behind in a competitive division.
Projected record: 83-79
Minnesota Twins (83-79)
Projected Opening Day Line-up
| No. | Name | Position | Projected 2016 AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Dozier | 2B | .244/.318/.437 |
| 2 | Joe Mauer | 1B | .276/.356/.387 |
| 3 | Miguel Sano | RF | .249/.337/.491 |
| 4 | Trevor Plouffe | 3B | .252/.315/.427 |
| 5 | Eddie Rosario | LF | .256/.287/.415 |
| 6 | Byung-Ho Park | DH | .266/.333/.463 |
| 7 | Eduardo Escobar | SS | .256/.302/.409 |
| 8 | Kurt Suzuki | C | .253/.305/.334 |
| 9 | Byron Buxton | CF | .266/.310/.405 |
Projected Opening Day Rotation
| No. | Name | Projected 2016 Innings/Strikeouts/ERA |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Phil Hughes | 167/129/4.10 |
| 2 | Ervin Santana | 142/104/4.51 |
| 3 | Kyle Gibson | 177/126/4.19 |
| 4 | Tommy Milone | 148/114/4.62 |
| 5 | Ricky Nolasco | 106/81/4.94 |
The Twins line-up will be led off by Brian Dozier who has enjoyed a fascinating career resurgence from non-prospect to all-star since 2010. Last year saw him mash a career-high 28 home runs, although with a drop off in walks and stolen bases his overall value fell slightly. He is far from a prototypical lead-off hitter and the second half decline last season is concerning, but Dozier provides a rare power/speed combination on the middle infield. Joe Mauer is rather a forgotten man, now plying a mediocre trade over at first base, and whilst a .270 average and .340 OBP is fine, the $180m contract looks worse by the year.
Miguel Sano is a big-time prospect with huge power, and he mashed 18 home runs in just 80 games in a scintillating debut last season. His contact issues (35% strikeout rate) are a concern, but he walks a lot which is a promising sign for a rookie and if he can make adjustments to tap into that power more frequently he'll be the cornerstone of this line-up for years. Trevor Plouffe is a solid if unspectacular third baseman who may be shopped this season to make room for Sano at the hot corner, whilst Eddie Rosario has an intriguing power/speed blend but almost no on-base skills. Byung-ho Park projects as an absolute masher in the Majors, with 30 home run power and elite plate discipline that points towards OBPs north of .350. However, all new players to the league tend to require periods of adjustment and 2016 will be a test for the 29 year old first baseman. Eduardo Escobar has surprising pop for a small middle-infielder, but will be under pressure for his job from Danny Santana, a few more walks to go along with the extra-base power would make him a very serviceable shortstop.
Miguel Sano is a big-time prospect with huge power, and he mashed 18 home runs in just 80 games in a scintillating debut last season. His contact issues (35% strikeout rate) are a concern, but he walks a lot which is a promising sign for a rookie and if he can make adjustments to tap into that power more frequently he'll be the cornerstone of this line-up for years. Trevor Plouffe is a solid if unspectacular third baseman who may be shopped this season to make room for Sano at the hot corner, whilst Eddie Rosario has an intriguing power/speed blend but almost no on-base skills. Byung-ho Park projects as an absolute masher in the Majors, with 30 home run power and elite plate discipline that points towards OBPs north of .350. However, all new players to the league tend to require periods of adjustment and 2016 will be a test for the 29 year old first baseman. Eduardo Escobar has surprising pop for a small middle-infielder, but will be under pressure for his job from Danny Santana, a few more walks to go along with the extra-base power would make him a very serviceable shortstop.
Kurt Suzuki offers little to no value at the plate at this point in his career and John Ryan Murphy should steal some playing time, whilst top prospect Byron Buxton comes with considerable expectations and elite defensive skills, but we haven't seen his bat impress since a monster 2013 campaign so this may well be another year of underwhelming performance, although at this stage just a healthy season would be a boost for the 22 year old. There is some upside to this team, with power and speed up the middle of the field and some big time power potential from Park and Sano. There remain considerable question marks though for a young team that strikes out a lot, and so 2016 may prove a season of adjustments and growing pains, although there are a lot of causes for optimism for Minnesota fans.
Phil Hughes had a historic 2014 campaign, setting a Major League record K-BB percentage, but he suffered for his elite control in 2015 as right-handed hitters especially tore him apart inside the strike zone. He doesn't have the swing-and-miss stuff to be an ace, but his utter disdain for walks means he should at least chew some innings without being dreadful although the outfield defense will need to be improved. Ervin Santana returned from suspension to pitch brilliantly in September after starting his season poorly. He has probably the most upside of anyone on this staff but is frustratingly inconsistent. Kyle Gibson plied an elite groundball rate to a solid 2015 campaign, and whilst his raw stuff suggest he could get strikeouts too he is yet to reflect that in his performances. He won't kill the Twins, but unless he turns that stuff into K's he's unlikely to be much of an impact starter either.
Tommy Milone is a soft-throwing leftie who always appears to be on the verge of a 1.1 inning, 9 earned run disaster but he mitigates the damage with a decent number of strikeouts, stinginess with walks and a spacious home ball park that should help his fly ball tendencies. Pencil him in for 150+ innings of forgettable 4.50 ERA performance. Ricky Nolasco has consistently underperformed his peripheral stats for several seasons now, and at this point he is no longer an improvement candidate. The Twins will likely roll him out for April and see if he can't showcase his 2011 stuff, but he's almost certainly going to be dropped from the rotation at some point in favour of exciting right-hander Jose Berrios. This is a rotation that already bores me before it's thrown a pitch, with journeyman options all-round that may provide innings and stability but won't be winning the Twins many games. Berrios is a huge talent who might become the best pitcher on the staff upon his call-up, but aside from him there is little to look forward to on the bump in Minnesota this year.
Glen Perkins is one of the least sexy closers in the game today, and unlike other southpaws who own ninth inning roles, he doesn't have overpowering stuff. That aside, he has been a surprisingly reliable closer for the Twins since 2013, saving between 32 and 36 games each season with an ERA that isn't too tough to swallow. He has a home run problem, even if a spacious ballpark, but he strikes out a hitter an inning, doesn't walk too many and is pretty much guaranteed the job as long as he doesn't implode. Kevin Jepsen was a nice back-end addition to the pen at the trade deadline last season and he filled in admirably for Perkins in a dominant second-half performance in Minnesota. He has some control issues, but gets strikeouts and will be a useful arm for the Twins.
Trevor May was converted to the bullpen in 2015 and took to the role with aplomb, his raw stuff playing up in short bursts as he struck out more than a hitter per inning. The Twins maintain they want to keep him as a starter in future, but he likely will be a bullpen piece at least in 2016. Casey Fien will be back this season, but his slow decline continued in 2015 with the strikeouts almost disappearing and the lack of ground-balls makes it hard to see where he will reliably get outs from. He's no longer a reliable option for the Twins. Fernando Abad will be the main leftie in the bullpen but he actually struggled with same-handed hitters last season and is far from a shutdown LOOGY. The bullpen has a couple of talented arms at top but little depth, and considering the state of the rotation it is going to be stretched to provide quality innings for the Twins this year.
2016 Projection
After their surprisingly strong 2015 campaign and considering their roster and upper-minors are loaded with talent, the Twins are a popular sleeper pick to have a big 2016 campaign but I think these predictions are premature. A lot of things had to go right for the Twins to even break .500 last year, and guys like Sano, Buxton and Rosario are bound to face some growing pains as Major League pitchers adjust. European-born slugger Max Kepler should make his MLB debut in 2016 which is exciting for baseball fans on this side of the pond, but to expect immediate impact would be naive. The line-up has some talent however, and it is the rotation that is the real Achilles heel of this young team. There is no recognisable ace, or even a number two on this staff, and outside Triple-A pitcher Jose Berrios there is no arm that has any significant upside. Innings-eaters are useful as a number four or five starter, but a rotation full of them is going to struggle, especially in a division as competitive as the Central.
The bullpen doesn't have the talent to win games on its own, and I think the Twins are going to find themselves looking at some ugly pitching ratios unless the likes of Ervin Santana and Tommy Milone had find consistency that they have been lacking for years. The Twins have a great core, and a lot of useful players that will play a part on winning teams but they're a pitcher or two short of the play-offs this season.
Tommy Milone is a soft-throwing leftie who always appears to be on the verge of a 1.1 inning, 9 earned run disaster but he mitigates the damage with a decent number of strikeouts, stinginess with walks and a spacious home ball park that should help his fly ball tendencies. Pencil him in for 150+ innings of forgettable 4.50 ERA performance. Ricky Nolasco has consistently underperformed his peripheral stats for several seasons now, and at this point he is no longer an improvement candidate. The Twins will likely roll him out for April and see if he can't showcase his 2011 stuff, but he's almost certainly going to be dropped from the rotation at some point in favour of exciting right-hander Jose Berrios. This is a rotation that already bores me before it's thrown a pitch, with journeyman options all-round that may provide innings and stability but won't be winning the Twins many games. Berrios is a huge talent who might become the best pitcher on the staff upon his call-up, but aside from him there is little to look forward to on the bump in Minnesota this year.
Glen Perkins is one of the least sexy closers in the game today, and unlike other southpaws who own ninth inning roles, he doesn't have overpowering stuff. That aside, he has been a surprisingly reliable closer for the Twins since 2013, saving between 32 and 36 games each season with an ERA that isn't too tough to swallow. He has a home run problem, even if a spacious ballpark, but he strikes out a hitter an inning, doesn't walk too many and is pretty much guaranteed the job as long as he doesn't implode. Kevin Jepsen was a nice back-end addition to the pen at the trade deadline last season and he filled in admirably for Perkins in a dominant second-half performance in Minnesota. He has some control issues, but gets strikeouts and will be a useful arm for the Twins.
Trevor May was converted to the bullpen in 2015 and took to the role with aplomb, his raw stuff playing up in short bursts as he struck out more than a hitter per inning. The Twins maintain they want to keep him as a starter in future, but he likely will be a bullpen piece at least in 2016. Casey Fien will be back this season, but his slow decline continued in 2015 with the strikeouts almost disappearing and the lack of ground-balls makes it hard to see where he will reliably get outs from. He's no longer a reliable option for the Twins. Fernando Abad will be the main leftie in the bullpen but he actually struggled with same-handed hitters last season and is far from a shutdown LOOGY. The bullpen has a couple of talented arms at top but little depth, and considering the state of the rotation it is going to be stretched to provide quality innings for the Twins this year.
2016 Projection
After their surprisingly strong 2015 campaign and considering their roster and upper-minors are loaded with talent, the Twins are a popular sleeper pick to have a big 2016 campaign but I think these predictions are premature. A lot of things had to go right for the Twins to even break .500 last year, and guys like Sano, Buxton and Rosario are bound to face some growing pains as Major League pitchers adjust. European-born slugger Max Kepler should make his MLB debut in 2016 which is exciting for baseball fans on this side of the pond, but to expect immediate impact would be naive. The line-up has some talent however, and it is the rotation that is the real Achilles heel of this young team. There is no recognisable ace, or even a number two on this staff, and outside Triple-A pitcher Jose Berrios there is no arm that has any significant upside. Innings-eaters are useful as a number four or five starter, but a rotation full of them is going to struggle, especially in a division as competitive as the Central.
The bullpen doesn't have the talent to win games on its own, and I think the Twins are going to find themselves looking at some ugly pitching ratios unless the likes of Ervin Santana and Tommy Milone had find consistency that they have been lacking for years. The Twins have a great core, and a lot of useful players that will play a part on winning teams but they're a pitcher or two short of the play-offs this season.
Projected record: 78-84
Cleveland Indians (81-80)
Projected Opening Day Line-up
| No. | Name | Position | Projected 2016 AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jason Kipnis | 2B | .275/.346/.415 |
| 2 | Francisco Lindor | SS | .275/.321/.417 |
| 3 | Carlos Santana | DH | .244/.366/.431 |
| 4 | Mike Napoli | 1B | .229/.337/.426 |
| 5 | Marlon Byrd | RF | .250/.292/.413 |
| 6 | Yan Gomes | C | .256/.298/.430 |
| 7 | Tyler Naquin | CF | .229/.285/.349 |
| 8 | Juan Uribe | 3B | .267/.312/.413 |
| 9 | Rajai Davis | LF | .258/.302/.402 |
Projected Opening Day Rotation
| No. | Name | Projected 2016 Innings/Strikeouts/ERA |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Corey Kluber | 202/217/3.21 |
| 2 | Carlos Carrasco | 173/193/3.08 |
| 3 | Danny Salazar | 178/195/3.49 |
| 4 | Cody Anderson | 142/89/4.38 |
| 5 | Trevor Bauer | 165/163/4.33 |
The Indians line-up will be jump-started by second baseman Jason Kipnis who suffered an up-and-down 2015 season but ended the season with strong average and on-base numbers, even if the power and speed was down from seasons past. At this point he is a good bet for a .280 average, .350 OBP and a handful of homers and steals which makes him a more than adequate table-setter on this team. Francisco Lindor set the world alight in 2015 and would have received more recognition if not for another American League rookie shortstop. His offensive numbers were unsustainable but they show an enormous ceiling for a talented defender who, if he can draw a few more walks and fill out into some power, will be a legitimate five-win players at his peak.
Carlos Santana had a down season for power, but his elite plate discipline makes him a good candidate to bounce back. Even with a .250 average, he walks enough to be an above average offensive performer and a return to 30-homer power would make him a middle-of-the-order threat. Mike Napoli is another good bet to bounce back after a rough season in Boston, his strong plate discipline and power threat make him a similar hitter to Santana, albeit with wider platoon splits. Marlon Byrd continues to define his age, providing right-handed power but not much else, and as a defensive liability in right field it's unlikely he'll play more than 80 games in this Indians line-up but a strong season would be a nice way to cap a successful career. Yan Gomes was bitten hard by the regression bug in 2015, and whilst his defensive and pitch framing abilities means he has value even when he's a black hole at the plate, a return to his 2013 and 2014 offensive statistics would be a huge boost for a team lacking in star power.
Carlos Santana had a down season for power, but his elite plate discipline makes him a good candidate to bounce back. Even with a .250 average, he walks enough to be an above average offensive performer and a return to 30-homer power would make him a middle-of-the-order threat. Mike Napoli is another good bet to bounce back after a rough season in Boston, his strong plate discipline and power threat make him a similar hitter to Santana, albeit with wider platoon splits. Marlon Byrd continues to define his age, providing right-handed power but not much else, and as a defensive liability in right field it's unlikely he'll play more than 80 games in this Indians line-up but a strong season would be a nice way to cap a successful career. Yan Gomes was bitten hard by the regression bug in 2015, and whilst his defensive and pitch framing abilities means he has value even when he's a black hole at the plate, a return to his 2013 and 2014 offensive statistics would be a huge boost for a team lacking in star power.
Tyler Naquin is a surprise late addition to the opening day roster, a talented defender who is going to have to make significant adjustments to big league pitching, whilst loveable Juan Uribe will be given a chance to continue his offensive renaissance at third base, at least until Lonnie Chisenhall returns from the DL. Speedy Rajai Davis has seen age take a hit on his one elite skill, but he remains a lefty-killer who should make things happen on the bases. The injury to Michael Brantley leaves this line-up looking a little flat, with very few good bets to hit above .260, but there is some power here and the infield defense will be much improved by a full season of Lindor at shortstop.
Corey Kluber had a somewhat disappointing encore season as the Cy Young winner in 2015, with just nine wins and a 3.49 ERA but much of this regression can be blamed on the uselessness of his team-mates, both at the plate and in the field. His peripheral numbers - especially the walks and strikeouts - remain elite and with some more good luck in the home run department a return to 2014 numbers isn't out of the question. Carlos Carrasco followed up his dominant 2014 second half with a strong 2015 campaign, and there is reason to think he might improve. The strikeout rate continues to climb on the back of that wicked slider, and he suffered from atrocious bad luck on balls in play and home runs in 2015. He's a sleeper Cy Young candidate.
Danny Salazar perhaps has the best raw stuff of the lot, with an upper-90s fastball and devastating split-change up and after logging 185 innings last season he appears set to take another step forward this year. An improved walk rate and continuance of his rising ground-ball rate in front of an improving defense could see him post an ERA close to three. Cody Anderson had a quietly nice debut in 2015, although he relied on some home run and BABIP luck as his minuscule 4.34 K/9 ratio leaves him at the mercy of his usually atrocious defense. He has been a huge name in Spring Training however, showing up with a 96mph fastball which, if it can lead to more strikeouts, would make him a very attractive number four starter. Trevor Bauer has seemingly been a high-upside starter forever, but he's never been able to make it click in a full season. The stuff is there, but he struggles with both control issues and the home run ball. Reign on or both of these issues in and he has number two starter upside given the strikeouts. Overall this is a talented and exciting rotation, loaded with strikeout arms that have enormous ceiling, and Josh Tomlin is a terrific number six arm in case something goes wrong.
Danny Salazar perhaps has the best raw stuff of the lot, with an upper-90s fastball and devastating split-change up and after logging 185 innings last season he appears set to take another step forward this year. An improved walk rate and continuance of his rising ground-ball rate in front of an improving defense could see him post an ERA close to three. Cody Anderson had a quietly nice debut in 2015, although he relied on some home run and BABIP luck as his minuscule 4.34 K/9 ratio leaves him at the mercy of his usually atrocious defense. He has been a huge name in Spring Training however, showing up with a 96mph fastball which, if it can lead to more strikeouts, would make him a very attractive number four starter. Trevor Bauer has seemingly been a high-upside starter forever, but he's never been able to make it click in a full season. The stuff is there, but he struggles with both control issues and the home run ball. Reign on or both of these issues in and he has number two starter upside given the strikeouts. Overall this is a talented and exciting rotation, loaded with strikeout arms that have enormous ceiling, and Josh Tomlin is a terrific number six arm in case something goes wrong.
Cody Allen isn't a name that tends to excite people when it comes to shutdown closers but it should be. For three straight seasons now Allen has posted sub-3 ERA's over more than 69 innings with elite strikeout numbers, setting a career-best in 2015 for punchouts and home run prevention. He suffered a little thanks to a reduced strand rate, but there is no reason to think he won't be anything but dominant once again in 2016. Bryan Shaw is another bullpen workhorse who has racked up innings over the past few years, seemingly to the detriment of his stuff as the velocity ticked down some in 2015, but he has remained effective with enough punchouts and soft contact to work around a higher than usual WHIP. Assuming he can stay healthy, he should provide more of the same this year.
Zach McAllister made the transition from rotation to bullpen last year and made it brilliantly, showcasing plus stuff in short bursts with more than a strikeout per inning. He's a solid member of this group for 2016. Joba Chamberlain and Ross Detwiler are two veterans working with reduced stuff who may be useful in bullpen roles for Cleveland but have no business entering the game in high-leverage situations. Jeff Manship was an awesome fairytale story in 2015, posting an ERA under 1 after several years bouncing around from club to club with awful results. Regression is a given, but he should be a reliable member of the group. Overall, it's a strong bullpen, highlighted by Allen's rise to elite status, and given the outstanding state of the rotation, they should be given plenty of leads to hold.
Zach McAllister made the transition from rotation to bullpen last year and made it brilliantly, showcasing plus stuff in short bursts with more than a strikeout per inning. He's a solid member of this group for 2016. Joba Chamberlain and Ross Detwiler are two veterans working with reduced stuff who may be useful in bullpen roles for Cleveland but have no business entering the game in high-leverage situations. Jeff Manship was an awesome fairytale story in 2015, posting an ERA under 1 after several years bouncing around from club to club with awful results. Regression is a given, but he should be a reliable member of the group. Overall, it's a strong bullpen, highlighted by Allen's rise to elite status, and given the outstanding state of the rotation, they should be given plenty of leads to hold.
2016 Projection
The Indians enter 2016 as a trendy pick to have a big season... which is exactly where they were this time last year. After a disappointing 2015 campaign, you would hope Francona and company have learned some lessons, and although the absence of Brantley is a big blow to this line-up, the improved infield and defense highlighted by Francisco Lindor as well as a couple of veteran acquisitions means the offense should score some runs and make more plays in the field. The rotation is dynamite, led by two legitimate aces in Kluber and Carrasco, and with three huge-upside young arms behind them this is a group that could even take another stride forward in 2016. Guys like Bauer and Salazar are yet to put it all together, but they don't have to particularly as the numbers three and four in the rotation, and if they do this could really be the best rotation in baseball. The bullpen is also solid, largely thanks to some astute rotation-to-pen transformations and the rise of Cody Allen, whilst the improved defense should have an effect on run prevention too.
Overall, the Indians are hard not to be optimistic about, and whilst there are some offensive issues to iron out, with the return of Brantley looking increasingly important, I think the strength of the rotation makes the Indians floor about a .500 team and I'm happy to believe they could challenge for the division.
Overall, the Indians are hard not to be optimistic about, and whilst there are some offensive issues to iron out, with the return of Brantley looking increasingly important, I think the strength of the rotation makes the Indians floor about a .500 team and I'm happy to believe they could challenge for the division.
Projected record: 88-74
Detroit Tigers (74-87)
Projected Opening Day Line-up
| No. | Name | Position | Projected 2016 AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ian Kinsler | 2B | .277/.324/.411 |
| 2 | Justin Upton | LF | .265/.348/.481 |
| 3 | Miguel Cabrera | 1B | .306/.389/.517 |
| 4 | J.D. Martinez | RF | .282/.340/.535 |
| 5 | Victor Martinez | DH | .279/.338/.451 |
| 6 | Nick Castellanos | 3B | .265/.314/.428 |
| 7 | James McCann | C | .253/.288/.360 |
| 8 | Jose Iglesias | SS | .275/.322/.343 |
| 9 | Anthony Gose | CF | .247/.312/.351 |
Projected Opening Day Rotation
| No. | Name | Projected 2016 Innings/Strikeouts/ERA |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jordan Zimmermann | 182/137/4.02 |
| 2 | Justin Verlander | 165/141/3.89 |
| 3 | Anibal Sanchez | 144/134/3.94 |
| 4 | Mike Pelfrey | 113/60/4.95 |
| 5 | Shane Greene | 127/85/5.24 |
Ian Kinsler is now several years removed from his 30/30 peak, but he remains a consistent lead-off hitter who provides more value than most of the second basemen in the league. He combines wonderful contact skills with a willingness to run deep counts that means he walks almost as much as he strikes out. The speed and power is down, but a 15/15 season feels reachable, and if he can eek out a .330 OBP with it the Tigers will be very happy. Justin Upton was the biggest acquisition of the off-season for the Tigers, and his right-handed power will slot nicely into the line-up. He has made a lot of hard-hit contact in recent years, cutting down on infield pop ups and even stealing 19 bases in 2015 - his most in four years. If he can hit .270 he'll be a real asset with 30 homer power and enough walks to boost that OBP too.
Miguel Cabrera is a joy to watch, an incredibly consistent slugger who dealt with some injury issues last season but when fit is one of the finest pure hitters in baseball. J.D. Martinez laughed in the face of regression in 2015, mashing 38 home runs even when he took a step back in batting average, and at this point we just have to appreciate the incredible adjustments he made to go from failed prospect to one of the most feared sluggers in the American League. Victor Martinez has seen age catch up with him over the past twelve months, dealing with various ailments and putting up a -2 win season in 2015. When healthy, he can still hit for average with 20 home run power, but he is limited to designated hitter only duty and his speed offers little room for optimism when he hasn't got the line drives screaming.
Nick Castellanos is yet to live up to his top prospect hype with two fairly mediocre seasons at the plate to his name. At this point, his upside is .270 with twenty home runs but 2016 will likely be a year of further adjustments for the young third baseman. James McCann has little to no offensive upside, and although his arm grades out as elite his pitch framing skills were the worst in the Majors in 2015. Jose Iglesias' defense needs no justification, and though he doesn't need to hit to be a serviceable Major Leaguer, he has shown an ability to make contact and hit .300 which helps a team that has a few strikeout problems. Anthony Gose could use a little more on-base skills to allow him to access that elite speed although his defense makes him a useful asset in centre field either way.
Miguel Cabrera is a joy to watch, an incredibly consistent slugger who dealt with some injury issues last season but when fit is one of the finest pure hitters in baseball. J.D. Martinez laughed in the face of regression in 2015, mashing 38 home runs even when he took a step back in batting average, and at this point we just have to appreciate the incredible adjustments he made to go from failed prospect to one of the most feared sluggers in the American League. Victor Martinez has seen age catch up with him over the past twelve months, dealing with various ailments and putting up a -2 win season in 2015. When healthy, he can still hit for average with 20 home run power, but he is limited to designated hitter only duty and his speed offers little room for optimism when he hasn't got the line drives screaming.
Nick Castellanos is yet to live up to his top prospect hype with two fairly mediocre seasons at the plate to his name. At this point, his upside is .270 with twenty home runs but 2016 will likely be a year of further adjustments for the young third baseman. James McCann has little to no offensive upside, and although his arm grades out as elite his pitch framing skills were the worst in the Majors in 2015. Jose Iglesias' defense needs no justification, and though he doesn't need to hit to be a serviceable Major Leaguer, he has shown an ability to make contact and hit .300 which helps a team that has a few strikeout problems. Anthony Gose could use a little more on-base skills to allow him to access that elite speed although his defense makes him a useful asset in centre field either way.
The departure of David Price leaves the team without an obvious ace and Jordan Zimmermann was slightly disappointing in a Tigers uniform last year, although his peripheral numbers remain solid. ZiPS doesn't like him to rebound but I do, another season of mid-3's ERA feels about right to me, although he would have to take a significant step forward to be an ace. Justin Verlander's fall from grace was as inexplicable as it was fast, and his 2015 season looked like being another disaster when poor results met injury. However, upon his return he found that blazing fastball that carried him to a Cy Young award with much more dominant performance, and so his early season outings will bear watching as a healthy Verlander is a very useful Verlander.
Anibal Sanchez is in a similar boat, as his talent is unquestioned but non-stop shoulder woes have sidelined him for significant portions of the last two seasons. If he can stay on the field he has number two starter upside. Mike Pelfrey is reliable in that he can eat some innings but he has very little else to be excited about. The Tigers have mentioned moving him to the bullpen where his stuff could play up a la Wade Davis, but for the time being his presence is required in the rotation. Shane Greene completes the staff, and after regression in 2015 back towards his true skills, he will look to use his solid breaking stuff in order to reduce the impact on his fairly average fastball, but he isn't an awful back of the rotation option for a team that feels one starter short. Al Avila could be a busy GM at the trade deadline looking for pitching if this Tigers team is competitive.
Anibal Sanchez is in a similar boat, as his talent is unquestioned but non-stop shoulder woes have sidelined him for significant portions of the last two seasons. If he can stay on the field he has number two starter upside. Mike Pelfrey is reliable in that he can eat some innings but he has very little else to be excited about. The Tigers have mentioned moving him to the bullpen where his stuff could play up a la Wade Davis, but for the time being his presence is required in the rotation. Shane Greene completes the staff, and after regression in 2015 back towards his true skills, he will look to use his solid breaking stuff in order to reduce the impact on his fairly average fastball, but he isn't an awful back of the rotation option for a team that feels one starter short. Al Avila could be a busy GM at the trade deadline looking for pitching if this Tigers team is competitive.
After racking up 82 saves over the past two seasons with the Brewers, veteran closer Francisco Rodriguez takes his ever-changing gig to Motown this season, where he is the clear ninth inning option on an ageing relief staff. Rodriguez now has the seventh-most saves in Major League history with 386 and could ostensibly move up as high as fourth with a healthy and productive season. He might not be the flame throwing option he was in his youth but his change-up is a testament to how hard he has worked to change his game. Mark Lowe earned himself a multi-year deal after seeing a dramatic increase in strikeout rate in 2015 to go along with a stingy 1.96 BB/9 rate. An ERA under two is unlikely to repeat given his struggles with lefties, but he might be the second best arm in this Detroit bullpen.
Justin Wilson is a hard-throwing leftie who arrived from New York last season, and he has the stuff and endurance to be the primary southpaw for Ausmus. Expected closer-of-the-future Bruce Rondon suffered through a tumultuous 2015 campaign with on the field struggles and off the field issues contributing to being sent home early by Detroit, and it appears he will start 2016 in the Minors after failing to impress in Spring Training, although his stuff would be a bonus for the Tigers pen assuming he can get his head in the right place. Drew VerHagen and Blaine Hardy appear the likely candidate to close out the relief corps. The acquisitions of Rodriguez and Lowe will help patch up what was one of the worst bullpens in baseball last season, but this remains far from a dominant group.
Justin Wilson is a hard-throwing leftie who arrived from New York last season, and he has the stuff and endurance to be the primary southpaw for Ausmus. Expected closer-of-the-future Bruce Rondon suffered through a tumultuous 2015 campaign with on the field struggles and off the field issues contributing to being sent home early by Detroit, and it appears he will start 2016 in the Minors after failing to impress in Spring Training, although his stuff would be a bonus for the Tigers pen assuming he can get his head in the right place. Drew VerHagen and Blaine Hardy appear the likely candidate to close out the relief corps. The acquisitions of Rodriguez and Lowe will help patch up what was one of the worst bullpens in baseball last season, but this remains far from a dominant group.
2016 Projection
The Tigers have some real firepower in their line-up, and the top half can rival any other in the American League, although the health of guys like Cabrera and Martinez is going to be crucial as a lot of key players enter the decline stage of their careers. Gose and Iglesias are glove-first talents who will be a boost in the field, whilst a big year for Nick Castellanos would be a major bonus for a team that needs to have a big year on offense. The rotation has a few reasonable arms, but Verlander and Sanchez are ageing fast, whilst Greene and Pelfrey offer little upside other than innings-chewing. Young left-hander Daniel Norris will likely get a nod in the rotation at some point this season, and his development will be worth keeping an eye on, but at the moment this group of pitchers remains a weak point for the Tigers.
They're usually a competitive outfit, but I don't see a lot of talent on this team that could take them considerably further than they did in their awful 2015 campaign. A healthy Miggy, the arrival of Upton and a bounceback from the likes of Sanchez and Zimmermann should guarantee a winning record, but the Tigers don't look like a 90 win team and so may have to settle for wildcard chasing.
They're usually a competitive outfit, but I don't see a lot of talent on this team that could take them considerably further than they did in their awful 2015 campaign. A healthy Miggy, the arrival of Upton and a bounceback from the likes of Sanchez and Zimmermann should guarantee a winning record, but the Tigers don't look like a 90 win team and so may have to settle for wildcard chasing.
Projected record: 85-77
Kansas City Royals (95-67)
Projected Opening Day Line-up
| No. | Name | Position | Projected 2016 AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alcides Escobar | SS | .266/.298/.350 |
| 2 | Mike Moustakas | 3B | .256/.313/.426 |
| 3 | Lorenzo Cain | CF | .284/.332/.416 |
| 4 | Eric Hosmer | 1B | .288/.347/.437 |
| 5 | Kendrys Morales | DH | .276/.336/.444 |
| 6 | Salvador Perez | C | .271/.299/.430 |
| 7 | Alex Gordon | LF | .261/.350/.419 |
| 8 | Paulo Orlando | RF | .246/.277/.349 |
| 9 | Omar Infante | 2B | .253/.278/.354 |
Projected Opening Day Rotation
| No. | Name | Projected 2015 Innings/Strikeouts/ERA |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edinson Volquez | 176/131/4.06 |
| 2 | Yordano Ventura | 175/164/3.70 |
| 3 | Ian Kennedy | 160/139/4.80 |
| 4 | Chris Young | 111/73/4.23 |
| 5 | Kris Medlen | 109/76/4.54 |
The Royals return almost an identical starting line-up the one that led them to the World Series several months ago, and it appears likely that Alcides Escobar will remain in the lead-off spot. Although his defense is wonderful, Escobar offers almost no value with the bat, with non-existent power and a total inability to draw walks which means he is a good bet for a sub-.300 OBP which is unacceptable for a lead-off hitter. Moustakas completely changed his game in a breakout 2015 campaign, adopting an all-fields approach which boosted his batting average but didn't diminish the power as he hit a career high 22 home runs. If he can maintain those adjustments there is no reason to think he can't outperform the ZiPS projection.
Cain had a magical 2015 season after a breakout 2014 on his way to top-three MVP honours. The average is likely to take a dive as his reduced strikeout rate has not led to more walks, and the power surge may not be sustained but he remains an offensive force who plays elite center field defense. Hosmer had another solid campaign, hitting line drives, increasing his walk percentages and even knocking 18 home runs. He's a consistent performer who should be in line for a big year at the heart of this line-up.
Kendrys Morales had a revival at the plate in 2015, increasing his walks, decreasing the strikeouts and managing to hit a team-leading 22 home runs. The .290 average feels unsustainable but if he can stay healthy he is a good bet for 20 home runs and a .350 OBP. Salvador Perez has a reputation as an elite offensive catcher but he has precipitously declined in production since 2011 and was horrible at the plate last year despite a career high in home runs. He literally never walks, and his free swinging approach makes him very reliant on BABIP fortune. His defense will keep him in the line-up but unless he hits .300 again the bat isn't helping the team much. Alex Gordon elected to remain in Kansas City over the off-season, and his all-round game is an underrated asset to this team as gold glove defence in left field is matched by a solid contact/patience game at the plate. He won't pile up many home runs or steals but a .350 OBP is not to be sneezed at.
Orlando will get the majority of starts in right field whilst Dyson returns from injury but he is an offensive black hole who may only outperform Omar Infante, the veteran second baseman who has fallen off a cliff in the last couple of years and could see his line-up spot poached by Christian Colon. Overall, the line-up has much of the same ability that took it to the World Series title in 2015, although several players are likely in line for some regression. In Escobar, Perez, Orlando and Infante they also have four very likely candidates to post OBP's below .300 so ignore commentators when they claim that this line-up has no weaknesses.
The rotation will be led by Edinson Volquez who carried his Pittsburgh-fuelled magic over to Kansas City last season and will be remembered for his heroic post-season performances under the most difficult of circumstances. At this point he remains a bit of an enigma, but after two straight solid seasons he should be a good bet for 200 innings that won't hurt KC with the occasional disaster start countered by spells of brilliance. Yordano Ventura had a disappointing first half for the Royals last year, and was ultimately demoted to AAA at one point, but he rediscovered his elite velocity and devastating breaking ball and was arguably their biggest asset on the mound in the post-season. The Royals will need him to make that step towards an ace this year.
Ian Kennedy was the biggest off-season acquisition, and despite a disastrous 2015 campaign there is reason for optimism as his home run problem was unsustainable and he retains decent strikeout stuff that should play up in front of the Royals elite defense. Chris Young continues to post the worst ground-ball percentage in the Majors but continues to make it work, and with Gordon, Cain and Dyson behind him there is no reason to think he won't see more fly balls hitting gloves than ever before. Kris Medlen appears to have beaten out Dillon Gee for the final rotation spot, but after two Tommy John surgeries he is an injury risk and his performances in the starting role have been inconsistent to say the least. It's a rotation that won't kill the Royals, but there is no clear ace unless Ventura makes an almighty leap forward and hoping for bounce-back years for Kennedy and Medlen feels wildly optimistic.
Wade Davis has proven himself as one of the best relievers in the business over the past two years, putting up video game numbers in 2015 on his way to 17 saves and a 0.94 ERA. The strikeouts actually fell off a bit from his ludicrous 2014 campaign and he gave up more fly balls and even the occasional home run but at this point it's simply nit-picking. Yes, Davis will likely regress from an ERA under one but he remains one of the best closers in the game. Joakim Soria returns to the Royals after a post-injury renaissance in recent years, and after an uptick in velocity last season he should be a more-than-capable eighth inning man who strikes hitters out and doesn't give up many walks. Kelvin Herrera has been a bullpen workhorse for the Royals in recent seasons, armed with a 100mph fastball that doesn't get him as many strikeouts as you would expect, his ability to keep the ball in the park works to the strength of his defense - he should be a useful asset again in 2016.
Luke Hochevar's return from Tommy John surgery in 2015 was a little disappointing as the dominant stuff he had showcased in 2013 did not repeat itself, with a decline in strikeouts and some control issues. He remains a useful bullpen asset, but if he can find the magic of 2013 once again he would be one of the top relievers in the pen. Danny Duffy has been a serviceable starter for a while, but appears ready to be a part of the bullpen in 2016 where his stuff should play up as the primary left-hander and he could be in line for a huge season. Overall, the bullpen has an elite arm up top, depth in quality and considerable upside. It will once again be a strength for the Royals in 2016.
2016 Projection
There is not a lot different about this Royals team compared to the one that won 95 games in the regular season and then went on to be World Champs in 2015. Yet it's hard to buy into them repeating that success. The line-up has strength, but no elite slugger unless Lorenzo Cain repeats his fantastic 2015, and there are several below replacement level hitters who are going to damage this team's run scoring ability. The pitching staff isn't great, there's no clear number one, there are injury risks and there's not a lot of depth if guys struggle or get hurt. But all these things have been true of the Royals for three years now and they keep winning games. The small-ball tactics on offense where they steal bases, string hits together and put pressure on the opposition defence has continued to work well and guys like Hosmer, Moustakas and Gordon are underrated performers.
The defense is absurdly good, all across the infield but especially in the outfield and there is undoubted value in Salvador Perez's super-human ability to catch 145 games a season. The bullpen looks likely to continue to be a real asset, Wade Davis is one of the best late-inning options in baseball and Soria, Herrera, Duffy and Hochevar round out one of the deepest groups in the American League. When I look at the roster in isolation it's hard to see them winning more than 81 games, but they've proven they can win despite not loading up the roster with conventional talent. And who am I to bet against the Royals Devil Magic? With Ned Yost at the helm, anything is possible.
Projected record: 90-72
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The AL Central will once again be a tough division to predict. All five teams have competitive rosters that should keep this division close deep into the season. Although the White Sox have one of the best rotations in baseball there are some real line-up weaknesses that could prevent this team from fulfilling its potential, although if Sale, Quintana and Rodon are as good as they can be it might not matter. The Twins have exciting young players, especially in Sano, Buxton and Berrios but 2016 feels a year too soon, even after their promising 2015 campaign. The Tigers have a potent line-up but there are question marks in the rotation with regards to health and in the bullpen with regards to effectiveness. They could blow away my projection and win 95 games but they could come last in the division for the second year in a row. The Indians rotation is loaded with high-upside arms that should strike out a whole bunch of hitters, but the line-up has question marks and the absence of Brantley could prove costly in early season contests.
The Royals enter the year as champions and are hard to bet against, but on paper that line-up has a lot of weak spots and the rotation is paper thin. I think ultimately we're going to see a really close September division battle, and with two wildcard spots available too we may see teams missing out by one or two games. Predicting a winner is nearly impossible, but after their 2015 magic it would seem foolish to give the Royals any other mantle but favourite.
No comments:
Post a Comment