Projected statistics all taken from the ZiPS projection system.
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Los Angeles Angels (85-77)
Expected Opening Day Line-up
| No. | Name | Position | Projected 2016 AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yunel Escobar | 3B | .269/.329/.356 |
| 2 | Daniel Nava | LF | .236/.324/.328 |
| 3 | Mike Trout | CF | .294/.401/.575 |
| 4 | Albert Pujols | DH | .265/.321/.473 |
| 5 | Kole Calhoun | RF | .261/.316/.433 |
| 6 | C.J. Cron | 1B | .258/.294/.431 |
| 7 | Andrelton Simmons | SS | .257/.306/.358 |
| 8 | Carlos Perez | C | .226/.275/.329 |
| 9 | Johnny Giavotella | 2B | .257/.307/.353 |
Expected Opening Day Rotation
| No. | Name | Projected 2016 Innings/Strikeouts/ERA |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Garrett Richards | 183/170/3.21 |
| 2 | Andrew Heaney | 177/145/3.76 |
| 3 | C.J. Wilson | 142/119/4.13 |
| 4 | Hector Santiago | 154/134/3.82 |
| 5 | Jered Weaver | 152/103/4.46 |
The Angels line-up continues to be hugely dependent on the brilliance of Mike Trout who put up a fourth straight monster season, proving his elite power was no fluke and cutting down his strikeouts whilst increasing walks. As good as Trout is, however, he needs some help. Kole Calhoun showed some promise in 2015, hitting 26 home runs and playing an elite right field but his low on-base percentage is indicative of a team-wide inability to draw a walk. Pujols had a nice bounce-back season power-wise, but continues to be plagued by foot injuries that will limit him to designated hitter duty and is bound to impact his playing time. C.J. Cron has big power but has been unable to put it all together yet in the Major Leagues whilst Carlos Perez and Johnny Giavotella have little ability with the bat and may be pushed for their spots in the line-up later this season.
The two biggest off-season acquisitions figure to slot into the infield, with the versatile Yunel Escobar figuring to hit in front of Trout and attempt to replicate his .300 average from last season. Andrelton Simmons is an elite defensive shortstop but his offensive numbers to this point in his career have been puzzling, and it will be interesting to see if he returns to his power-hitting 2012 ways or continues to slap the ball. Nava and Gentry should be a fine platoon combination in left field, but the issue remains that this is a line-up devoid of much upside. If Pujols, Calhoun and Escobar can stay healthy and put up big numbers around Trout, this team could outhit enough teams to remain a competitor towards the end of the season, but it's not a line-up that will scare many teams in its current state.
Garrett Richards appears poised to lead the rotation once again with huge upside, but his waywardness and inconsistency in 2015 make it hard to pin him as a stereotypical ace. Andrew Heaney is a left-hander with good stuff who should be given plenty of opportunity to succeed, but he remains young and inexperienced. At the other end of the spectrum, C.J. Wilson's slow decline continues, but assuming health he should have 180 solid innings for the Angels even with his best days behind him. The perennially underrated Hector Santiago will continue to strike guys out, walk guys and give up home runs whilst providing the Angels with 20 quality starts. Jered Weaver's velocity is a massive concern as always, and with reports that he is unable to throw above 80mph his rotation spot will be under huge pressure from the promising Tyler Skaggs and 2014 sensation Matt Shoemaker. This is a rotation with decent depth and a pretty high floor, but unless Richards replicates his 2014 form and turns into a bona-fide ace the upside of this group appears limited.
The bullpen will be anchored by veteran closer Huston Street who continues to combat declining velocity and increasing fly-ball rates with good results thanks to his devastating slider and ability to induce weak contact. In front of him, Joe Smith will continue to be a bullpen workhorse, putting up low home-run rates and high ground-ball rates towards 65 innings of solid relief work. Fernando Salas suffered through a bizarre 2015 campaign, when his career best strikeout and walk rates were let down by bad luck with home runs, balls-in-play and strand rates. His solid stuff perhaps gives him the highest upside of anyone in the pen, but the weakness to fly balls makes him a volatile if exciting option at the back-end of games. Al Albuquerque, Mike Morin and Jose Alvarez are all likely to play roles in the Angels 'pen, whilst Cam Bedrosian has huge strikeout upside but control and home run issues that have stunted his development thus far. The bullpen is fine, but will be dependent on the rotation to make their job easier.
2016 Projection
The Angels were pipped to the post in their hunt for a wildcard spot last season, and their moves over the winter suggest they are ready to make a run for the post-season again. There are some serious issues with this team though, and 2016 might be the season these problems become glaring. Mike Trout is a once-in-a-generation superstar, a genuine reason to watch the Angels every single day, but he can't do it all himself. The line-up is full of walk-averse sluggers and defense-first black-holes, whilst the rotation has ageing veterans and inconsistent youngsters. If everything goes right, this team can win 90 games and postpone the crash for one more year, but I think this team is going to struggle towards a .500 record as another MVP-level season for Trout is wasted. The poor free agent acquisitions of recent seasons (Pujols, Hamilton, Wilson) and barren wasteland of a farm system appear likely to doom the Angels to several seasons of mediocrity, but for Mike Trout's sake I hope I am wrong.
Projected record: 78-84
Oakland Athletics (68-94)
Expected Opening Day Line-up
| No. | Name | Position | Projected 2016 AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Billy Burns | CF | .265/.320/.342 |
| 2 | Jed Lowrie | 2B | .247/.315/.384 |
| 3 | Josh Reddick | RF | .257/.320/.433 |
| 4 | Khris Davis | LF | .235/.307.415 |
| 5 | Stephen Vogt | C | .254/.317/.411 |
| 6 | Danny Valencia | 3B | .263/.305/.436 |
| 7 | Billy Butler | DH | .264/.331/.397 |
| 8 | Yonder Alonso | 1B | .268/.333/.375 |
| 9 | Marcus Semien | SS | .244/.312/.394 |
Expected Opening Day Rotation
| No. | Name | Projected Innings/Strikeouts/ERA |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sonny Gray | 211/179/3.20 |
| 2 | Jesse Hahn | 106/73/4.09 |
| 3 | Rich Hill | 84/81/4.29 |
| 4 | Kendall Graveman | 142/88/4.33 |
| 5 | Henderson Alvarez | 101/55/4.13 |
The Athletics line-up remains a bizarre mix of average veterans and power-only sluggers that exhibits little upside. Billy Burns had a nice first full season in the Majors, putting up 2.3 wins above replacement despite only stealing 26 bases. If he can continue to make elite contact and exhibit walk rates more in line with his minor league performance then he's likely to be a useful lead-off hitter. Khris Davis and Josh Reddick both have great power potential but struggle with strikeouts, although to his credit, Reddick has cut down the K's dramatically over the past few seasons and is the best bet at a five win season on this team. Vogt, Valencia, Butler and Alonso are all fairly well known quantities at this point, likely to contribute something on offense but not enough to be considered anything better than average with the bat. Marcus Semien was horrible defensively at shortstop last season, but remains a young player who will be given every opportunity to succeed. The ZiPS projection system is perhaps too down on some of these hitters, but this remains a weak line-up that will have a tough time scoring runs against some of the better pitchers in the American League.
The rotation will be led by 26 year old Sonny Gray who has now had two impressive seasons at the front of this staff. His development of an elite slider last season offset a decline in fastball effectiveness, and whilst his peripherals suggest he is due a regression he has yet to suffer from any bad luck in the Majors. Behind him, there remain considerable question marks. Jesse Hahn is a talented pitcher but has struggled considerably with arm injuries and would do well to make more than 20 starts this season. Rich Hill was shockingly good in a 40 inning stint at the end of last season with Boston but has a decade of minor league experience that suggests such an uptick in results is unlikely to last. Alvarez, Graveman and Bassitt will compete for spots in the rotation, all with some upside but unlikely to be 30 start workhorses for a team that desperately needs someone to take a big leap forward on the mound. If a few of these younger players can make progressions and Gray can continue to outpitch his peripherals then this is a staff that won't hurt. Unfortunately, given the shaky infield defense and poor line-up helping them out that might not be enough.
Assuming health, Sean Doolittle will return as the Athletics' closer in 2016, although his shoulder woes make him an injury risk and could impact his effectiveness, especially given his success largely rests on a mid-90's fastball that he uses almost in isolation. Ryan Madson was a major off-season acquisition, and though the three-year deal may seem puzzling, his utility to the Royals last season cannot be questioned, and he should be a useful arm at the end of games. Marc Rzepczynski figures to be the primary lefty in the pen, and his peripherals suggest a bounceback is due from his woeful 2015 campaign. John Axford, Liam Hendriks and Felix Doubront all offer significant upside out of the 'pen, which is needed after the awful job the late-inning corps did last season, but considering the state of the line-up and rotation they may not have many leads to defend.
2016 Projection
In a division that is likely to be closely fought, the Athletics stand out as the weakest team by a considerable distance. Unlike the Angels, they don't have a Mike Trout that could carry the team into contention, and though the line-up has some power upside, this is a team that will strike out 15 times in a game with some frequency. The rotation has some high-upside arms, but also considerable health question marks, whilst the farm system appears unlikely to be contributing much this year outside a possible debut for exciting young left-hander Sean Manaea. If everything goes right, this team could fight to a .500 record, but I expect them to be the bottom-dwellers of the division come September. The puzzling decision to trade Josh Donaldson for very little in return looks even worse now. It's time for a rebuild.
Projected record: 69-93
Projected Opening Day Line-up
| No. | Name | Position | Projected 2016 AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Delino DeShields | CF | .272/.359/.360 |
| 2 | Shin-Soo Choo | RF | .264/.372/.415 |
| 3 | Prince Fielder | DH | .271/.355/.422 |
| 4 | Adrian Beltre | 3B | .289/.342/.452 |
| 5 | Mitch Moreland | 1B | .259/.314/.447 |
| 6 | Ian Desmond | LF | .264/.301/.417 |
| 7 | Elvis Andrus | SS | .267/.319/.351 |
| 8 | Rougned Odor | 2B | .273/.324/.465 |
| 9 | Robinson Chirinos | C | .230/.301/.381 |
Projected Opening Day Rotation
| No. | Name | Projected 2016 Innings/Strikeouts/ERA |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cole Hamels | 198/168/3.69 |
| 2 | Colby Lewis | 129/89/4.90 |
| 3 | Martin Perez | 109/71/4.40 |
| 4 | Derek Holland | 101/85/4.29 |
| 5 | Yu Darvish | 132/156/3.41 |
The Rangers line-up is actually surprisingly strong. Delino DeShields was a nice surprise for the Rangers last season, getting on base at a decent clip and showcasing his game-changing speed. If he can hit over .280 and draw a few more walks then he will be a fantastic lead-off hitter for this team. Choo continues to do what he does best, get on base at a prodigious clip against right-handed pitching, whilst Prince Fielder bounced back nicely and appears primed for another big offensive season. The Adrian Beltre decline might finally be upon us, but even the depressed ZiPS projection have him as a useful offensive performer. Desmond and Andrus both have a lot to prove as shortstops who lost considerable stock last season, but should be good bets to bounce back - Andrus with more groundballs, hits and steals - Desmond with increased BABIP luck to go along with 20/20 potential. Odor was fantastic in the second half last year, and the projections like him to keep that up, whilst Chirinos is really the only easy out on this team. Assuming health, this is going to be a line-up that wears pitchers down, with a lot of heavy hitting sluggers and prime bounce-back targets I like the Rangers to be one of the best hitting teams in the American League next season.
On the bump it is a different story. Cole Hamels has been one of the best pitchers in baseball for seven years now, and is almost embarrassingly consistent. The projections look a little harsh if you ask me, expect another four-win season from a pitcher who induced a 47% swing and miss rate on his change-up last season. Colby Lewis had a nice season in Texas in 2015, but at this point he can be considered little more than a dependable innings eater who won't hurt the team but won't help it much either. Once top-prospect Martin Perez has struggled considerably with injury, and whilst he has shown an impressive ability to keep the ball on the ground, his microscopic strikeout rates do not bode well at this stage of his career. Derek Holland is a useful left-hander assuming he can get control of his control, but is another injury risk who has never put the stuff together over a full season. Darvish is likely to start the season on the DL but I have included him in this exercise, as 130 innings from him would be a huge season-changer for the Rangers. Coming back after an almost two-year lay-off will be tough, especially for a pitcher who never had elite control like Darvish, but his pure stuff is second to none and if he can re-find form quickly this rotation goes from below average to plus. Overall, this staff is going to be hugely dependent on the form of Cole Hamels and the arm of Yu Darvish. If one of their innings-eaters can make a step to a number-two starter, this staff could do enough to back the offense up.
Shawn Tolleson had an impressive 2015 campaign and will enter this season as the Rangers closer. If he can keep his strikeout and walk improvements up from last year then he should be a reliable end-game option for the Rangers. Jake Diekman is a big left-hander who throws 95 but has command issues, if he can restrict the walks he should be a great southpaw option out of the pen, whilst new acquisition Tom Wilhelmsen has proven to be a reliable innings-chewer in Seattle over the past few seasons. Keone Kela was one of the most impressive relievers in the Majors in 2015, striking out more than a batter per inning whilst lowering his minor-league walk rates and riding that combination to a 2.39 ERA in 60 innings. Keeping that walk rate down will be his biggest challenge this season, but if he can then he might be the most talented arm in this 'pen. Sam Dyson, Sam Freeman and Nick Martinez all appear to be options out of the bullpen too, and overall this is a relief corps that has several quality options without the shut-down ninth-inning guy they might dream for. If the Rangers are in contention come July, look for them to acquire a bullpen guy to make this a strong late inning group.
2016 Projection
The Texas Rangers have been wildly inconsistent in recent years, and injuries always seem to plague this team making it hard to be optimistic. However, this line-up is one of the strongest in the division, and the AAA affiliate has four elite prospects waiting for their chance on the team in Joey Gallo, Lewis Brinson, Nomar Mazara and Jurickson Profar. If even one or two of those guys can make an impact on this team then look out, because this team is full of hitters with patience, power and speed. On the mound, the fortunes will be closely linked to the production of the two aces, Darvish and Hamels, whilst the strong bullpen of 2015 should be a good bet to repeat this season. The Rangers are by no means a lock to compete in this strong division, but their team is nicely set up to challenge come September, and if Darvish can return strong and the line-up enjoy increased production from the likes of Desmond and Beltre this could be a team that wins 95 games. I'm going to split the difference and peg them to be right in the mix come the end of the year.
Projected record: 89-73
Houston Astros (86-76)
Projected Opening Day Line-up
| No. | Name | Position | Projected 2016 AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jose Altuve | 2B | .309/.346/.432 |
| 2 | George Springer | RF | .248/.341/.459 |
| 3 | Carlos Correa | SS | .273/.340/.492 |
| 4 | Carlos Gomez | CF | .259/.317/.433 |
| 5 | Evan Gattis | DH | .252/.297/.465 |
| 6 | Luis Valbuena | 3B | .238/.330/.425 |
| 7 | Colby Rasmus | LF | .244/.316/.461 |
| 8 | Jonathan Singleton | 1B | .216/.316/.422 |
| 9 | Jason Castro | C | .231/.303/.389 |
Projected Opening Day Rotation
| No. | Name | Projected 2016 Innings/Strikeouts/ERA |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dallas Keuchel | 203/177/3.29 |
| 2 | Collin McHugh | 178/160/3.69 |
| 3 | Mike Fiers | 158/144/4.17 |
| 4 | Doug Fister | 134/95/4.03 |
| 5 | Scott Feldman | 130/87/4.50 |
The Astros line-up is spear-headed by three of the most exciting young players in baseball, but after this there's a fairly precipitous drop-off in the bottom half of the line-up. Jose Altuve is fresh off two straight seasons leading the American League in hits and steals, whilst Carlos Correa just had one of the greatest debut half-seasons baseball has ever seen. George Springer comes into the year loaded with potential, and if he can maintain his reduced strikeout rate from last season whilst tapping into his extreme power/speed potential he could be an eight-win player no problem. The bottom half of the line-up however - Gattis through Castro that is - all suffer from the same problem with contact. All five are decent picks to mash twenty home runs, but to expect any to hit over .250 would be optimistic, and there are going to be games where this line-up produces 15+ strikeouts. A.J. Reed appears likely to replace Jon Singleton at some point assuming Singleton struggles as he has in the past, and his elite bat would be a huge shot in the arm for this line-up, but if the top half clicks they may not need that much help anyway.
The rotation will be led by Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel, who rode his superb control and ground-ball skills to a wonderful season in 2015. Expecting an exact repeat is naive, but there is no reason to think he can't put up similar numbers this year and is a bona fide ace. McHugh struggled in 2015, but ZiPS expects a decent bounce-back, whilst mid-season acquisition Mike Fiers will likely struggle to control the home run ball in cosy Minute Maid Park but has plenty of strikeout potential. Doug Fister is a soft throwing ground-baller, who is a decent lottery ticket for the Astros but after his woes last season, he represents poor value at the back of this rotation, where Scott Feldman is always on the verge of a disaster start. Lance McCullers will be pushing hard for a rotation spot and based on his stuff would be an upgrade, whilst the Astros farm remains loaded with pitching talent should they decide to dip into it.
The bullpen will be anchored by off-season addition Ken Giles who has an electric arm but has struggled with control and velocity issues in his short major league career. At 25 he is undoubtedly the closer of the future with the Astros, but doesn't appear to be the elite option that his statistics to this point may suggest. Luke Gregerson is about as solid and reliable as veteran relievers come, and should be able to ride his slider to another solid season in the bullpen for Houston. Will Harris, Josh Fields and Pat Neshek are all fairly consistent right-handed options to back these two up, whilst Tony Sipp has made a name for himself as one of the best left-handed options in the game. Overall, this is a pretty strong bullpen which will probably find itself bolstered by some minor league prospect additions throughout the season which will only make it stronger. If the rotation can take a lead into the sixth or seventh inning, this is a squad that will make that lead safe on most occasions.
2016 Projection
The Houston Astros came out of nowhere to contend in 2015, and in Correa, Altuve and Springer they have a fantastic young core of players up the middle of the diamond. Outside the top of the line-up however, are considerable question marks, and the Astros may find themselves promoting several of their top prospects sooner rather than later in order to shore up some of these holes. Keuchel will lead a strong rotation, but again the back-side of the staff is going to be a weakness, and guys like Lance McCullers should fight their way in before long. This is a team that is going to be competitive more than it's not over the next few seasons, although 2015 should remain an outlier on the team's projections. If everything goes right, they will be right in there with a chance in September, but a few crucial injuries could see them struggling to break .500, especially if some of the more strikeout prone players in the line-up continue to struggle. I'm going to take an optimistic view of this top-heavy team, not least because I think they constitute one of the most likeable teams in the Majors.
Projected record: 88-74
Seattle Mariners (76-86)
Projected 2016 Opening Day Line-up
| No. | Name | Position | Projected 2016 AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Norichika Aoki | RF | .269/.332/.353 |
| 2 | Ketel Marte | SS | .267/.308/.367 |
| 3 | Robinson Cano | 2B | .292/.349/.439 |
| 4 | Nelson Cruz | DH | .265/.328/.494 |
| 5 | Kyle Seager | 3B | .262/.327/.443 |
| 6 | Adam Lind | 1B | .259/.334/.403 |
| 7 | Seth Smith | LF | .244/.331/.413 |
| 8 | Chris Iannetta | C | .214/.329/.358 |
| 9 | Leonys Martin | CF | .247/.295/.367 |
Projected 2016 Opening Day Rotation
| No. | Name | Projected 2016 Innings/Strikeouts/ERA |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Felix Hernandez | 201/203/3.14 |
| 2 | Taijuan Walker | 146/135/4.33 |
| 3 | Wade Miley | 180/146/4.27 |
| 4 | Hisashi Iwakuma | 148/126/3.72 |
| 5 | Nate Karns | 140/136/4.39 |
The Seattle Mariners had an active off-season, making no major splashes but they enter 2016 with a much revamped line-up from the one that started the 2015 season. Nori Aoki and Ketel Marte are both fast players who should offer some speed and average at the top of the line-up although neither is an elite OBP guy. Behind them, Robinson Cano will look to stay healthy and add to his growing resumé as the best second baseman over the past ten years. Nelson Cruz had a monster 2015 season and is due for some regression, especially at age 36 but he will undoubtedly remain one of the best right-handed power hitters in the game. Kyle Seager might be losing attention to his younger brother but remains a fantastically consistent third-sacker, whilst Adam Lind is a righty-masher who will hit if nothing else in Seattle. The bottom third of the line-up has weaknesses, although Smith and Gutierrez make up a fine left-field platoon whilst Leonys Martin has considerable upside and provides much improved center field defense.
Felix Hernandez will continue to lead the rotation as one of the most consistent right handers in the Majors. ZiPS likes him to rebound from a slight dip in 2015 and so do I, especially given the improved defense and line-up that will be helping him out. Taijuan Walker will look to continue his improvement in 2015 and remains an enticing prospect, whilst Wade Miley is in a park that suits his skill-set well and should be a reliable innings eater. Iwakuma almost left the Mariners, but a failed physical sees him returning to Seattle where he has always been a quality starter when he can stay on the field. Nate Karns made great strides with Tampa Bay last season, punching out a considerable number of hitters thanks to an improved change-up. Left-hander James Paxton will fight for a rotation spot but appears destined to at least start the season in the bullpen where his mid-90s fastball and hard-breaking curveball will play up as he looks to stay healthy for a full season. If they can stay on the field, this pitching corps is a useful group that can strike hitters out and will enjoy an improved defense from last season. In a division that struggles with rotation depth, this group stands out as one with considerable upside.
Steve Cishek appears poised to lead the Mariners bullpen in 2016 despite struggling through the worst season of his career last year. If he can cut down the walks and revert back to his 2011-14 strikeout levels, his signing could prove shrewd for the M's, but for those expecting a relaxed ninth inning experience he likely won't provide (although after Fernando Rodney, Mariners fans would be overwhelmed anyway). The ageless Joaquin Benoit is a consistent eighth-inning option who gives up very few hits and is a great insurance option if Cishek struggles. Tony Zych finished the season strongly in the M's 'pen and appears poised for a chance to repeat that success in 2016 whilst Vidal Nuno and 2015 sensation Mike Montgomery are both useful left-handed/long relief options out of the bullpen. There's no dominant arms in this 'pen, but considering the friendly confines of Safeco if a reliever can limit walks and strike out a few hitters they can be successful for this team. As with the rotation, a lot of the success of this group will depend on the M's revamped outfield defense and ability to avoid injuries. If both of those things work out well, this group can be useful in 2016.
2016 Projection
It feels like the Mariners start every season with an impressive roster that has elite talent and considerable depth. Somehow they always find a way to throw it away though, whether through poor injury luck, awful bullpens or simple underachievement. In 2016 they have a line-up that has star power in the middle and some useful tools at either end, whilst their defense should at least be better than the ragtag group patrolling the field in 2015. King Felix, Iwakuma and Walker have a lot of upside at the front of this rotation, and in Miley, Karns and Paxton there are strikeouts and solid innings that will contributed towards the back. The bullpen isn't shutdown, but has some high-upside guys who should at least not kill the team, so overall I like the M's to be competitive this season. If Cano can revert to MVP form, Cruz continue his massive 2015 campaign and King Felix turn in another ace season, this is a team that could take the AL West title. Things rarely work out like that however, especially for the Mariners. I think they'll be competitive, and hope they can turn that into at least a fun September run.
Projected record: 87-75
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So there you have it. In the Rangers, Astros and Mariners I think we can see three clearly stronger teams atop the division, although admittedly if everything goes right for the Angels they have the talent to compete. Ultimately, health will play a big role in a division that always seems to spring surprises, but I would be surprised to see any team run away with the title. The Athletics are clearly the weakest team, but have some pitching talent that will make them far from a laughing stock, whilst the Astros' core of young players will make them must-watch TV almost any time they take to the field. Overall, the quality of farm system and return of Yu Darvish makes the Rangers the team to beat in this division in my opinion, but my opinion is almost always wrong so make of that what you will! If we can have a September of baseball that comes anywhere near the excitement of 2015 then the AL West will be a great division to watch once again this year.
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