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Los Angeles Dodgers (92-70)
Projected Opening Day Line-up
| No. | Name | Position | Projected 2016 AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carl Crawford | LF | .270/.311/.401 |
| 2 | Howie Kendrick | 2B | .285/.328/.406 |
| 3 | Justin Turner | 3B | .294/.358/.460 |
| 4 | Adrian Gonzalez | 1B | .270/.330/.450 |
| 5 | Yasiel Puig | RF | .276/.350/.471 |
| 6 | Corey Seager | SS | .266/.311/.447 |
| 8 | Yasmani Grandal | C | .233/.344/.416 |
| 9 | Joc Pederson | CF | .220/.337/.414 |
Projected Opening Day Rotation
| No. | Name | Projected 2016 Innings/Strikeouts/ERA |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clayton Kershaw | 215/265/2.01 |
| 2 | Kenta Maeda | 177/162/3.20 |
| 3 | Scott Kazmir | 168/162/3.38 |
| 4 | Alex Wood | 169/139/3.74 |
| 5 | Mike Bolsinger | 143/134/3.84 |
This is a Dodgers line-up that is deep and full of impact talent. The Spring Training injury to Andre Ethier thrusts Carl Crawford into the spotlight as the everyday left-fielder against right-handed pitching, and Crawford will attempt to turn his miserable form over the past few seasons around. If he can cut down the strikeouts and draw a few more walks, he could at least be a reasonable stand in to start the year whilst Van Slyke handles lefties. Kendrick is reliable if unspectacular at second base, whilst the shocking rise of Justin Turner must be taken seriously after two superb seasons, and the ZiPS projections remain particularly bullish heading into 2016. Adrian Gonzalez is the epitome of consistency at the heart of the Dodger line-up, something that can not be said for right-field enigma Yasiel Puig. Puig struggled with injuries and off-the-field issues in 2015, but his talent on it is unquestionable. If he can focus on baseball he has all-star talent, but reports claim that the Dodgers patience is wearing thin. Corey Seager has drawn a lot of headlines as the number one prospect in baseball heading into this season, and he has a great chance to make a name for himself with the everyday job at shortstop. Joc Pederson flashed signs of brilliance in a tumultuous rookie campaign, but if he can strikeout a bit less then his patience, power and speed could make him a sneaky four-win player. The Dodgers line-up, especially when Ethier returns, boasts impact players from top-to-bottom, and if guys like Seager, Puig and Pederson could take a stride forward this easily has the making of the one of the top hitting teams in the Majors.
What more is there to say about Clayton Kershaw? He is the greatest pitcher on the planet, has been since 2011 really and seems only to be getting better - he posted a career best K/9 over 11 in 2016 on his way to the first 300 strikeout season since 2002. Oh and he just turned 28 last week. Kenta Maeda will be an intriguing pitcher to watch, especially to start the season as most reports don't see his stuff as plus but his command is special, although how quickly he adapts to the Majors will be important if he is going to serve as the number two starter. Scott Kazmir's 2015 season was a tale of two stories in Oakland and Houston, but in the National League I would expect him to bounce back well if he can stay healthy. The back-end of the rotation has been battered about in the pre-season, with Brett Anderson undergoing back surgery, Hyun-Jin Ryu's comeback delayed and Mike Bolsinger suffering a strained oblique, with Brandon McCarthy already out until mid-season on his comeback from Tommy John surgery. Alex Wood is healthy, but had limited success with the Dodgers last year as the hitters got used to his funky delivery, whilst Bolsinger will look to make the most of his rotation chance, as he was impressive in limited action in 2015 despite a sub-90mph fastball. The depth of this rotation will really be tested as the season goes on, although the return of Ryu could be a great shot in the arm at the end of April. Ultimately, the health of one man is all that matters though as Kershaw's brilliance on the mound makes him an ace and a number two starter all wrapped up in one precocious left arm.
The bullpen will be headlined by Kenley Jansen for the fourth straight season, and this consistency is one of the hallmarks of Jansen's game. Oh, along with strikeouts. Tons and tons of strikeouts. After another dominant 2015 campaign, I see no reason why Jansen won't prove one of the top ninth-inning options in the game again this season with his ridiculous mid-90's cutter mowing down line-ups across the National League. Chris Hatcher struggled in the first half of 2015 but was dominant after he returned from injury in August and should be the primary set-up man in the LA bullpen. Pedro Baez had a nice breakout season in 2015, armed with a 97mph fastball and he'll join lefty specialist Luis Avilan as two key pieces in the staff. Yimi Garcia, Carlos Frias and J.P. Howell appear poised to close out the bullpen, and though there are some weak spots beneath Jansen, the dominant right-hander's presence is enough to grade this 'pen out as at least solid, especially given the rotation strength in front of them.
2016 Projection
The Dodgers have been a popular World Series pick for several years now and 2016 is no different in that regard. The pieces are there for this team to make a deep pennant run, and it's hard to look past them for the division title although the retooled Giants and D-Backs will certainly have something to say. If the line-up can stay healthy and some of the young hitters make strides then this is a team that will score runs, whilst Kershaw leads a staff that assuming it can avoid more catastrophic injury luck has depth and talent. I think the Dodgers are the best shot at 100 wins in the division given the upside of their roster, but if the likes of Gonzalez, Kershaw and Jansen struggle this is suddenly a team lacking consistent star-power. If we're being honest though, such a scenario is almost impossible to imagine, pencil the Dodgers in for a fourth division title in as many years.
Projected record: 93-69
San Diego Padres (74-88)
Projected Opening Day Line-up
| No. | Name | Position | Projected 2016 AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jon Jay | LF | .254/.331/.334 |
| 2 | Cory Spangenberg | 2B | .260/.312/.399 |
| 3 | Wil Myers | 1B | .259/.330/.431 |
| 4 | Matt Kemp | RF | .261/.317/.421 |
| 5 | Yangervis Solarte | 3B | .262/.313/.388 |
| 6 | Derek Norris | C | .247/.318/.399 |
| 7 | Alexei Ramirez | SS | .260/.290/.370 |
| 8 | Melvin Upton | CF | .215/.287/.362 |
Projected Opening Day Rotation
| No. | Name | Projected 2016 Innings/Strikeouts/ERA |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Shields | 186/181/3.54 |
| 2 | Andrew Cashner | 156/128/3.87 |
| 3 | Tyson Ross | 178/182/3.24 |
| 4 | Robbie Erlin | 125/96/4.92 |
| 5 | Colin Rea | 119/88/4.25 |
The Padres line-up is a weird and wonderful mix of high-upside former top prospects and forgotten journeymen, but you have to really squint to see much to get excited about here. Jon Jay has shown an ability to hit and get on base but not much else - not an awful combination for a lead-off guy provided he is fully over his injuries. Spangenberg is in a similar mould, but without elite contact skills he might be hard pressed to repeat an impressive 2015 campaign. I still believe in Wil Myers raw ability, but his wrist issues make it very hard to trust him to stay on the field, whilst the new first base position poses its own challenges. Matt Kemp is easily the best bat on this team, and health providing could be in line for a monster season as he actually got unlucky on balls in play last year. I think he'll outperform that depressed ZiPS projection. Solarte had a nice year, and will be given every chance to make the third base position his whilst Derek Norris can mash lefties but struggles to get on base against right-handers. Melvin Upton had his best half-season in a while in 2015, but his strikeout woes are well documented whilst Alexei Ramirez appears to be struggling with age-related decline and needs a big season to revitalise his career. This team has some upside, especially in the heart of the line-up, but has a major problem getting on base and Kemp aside really lacks anyone who could remotely be considered a consistent star.
James Shields had a bizarre 2015 campaign, striking out way more hitters than he ever had previously but also walking too many and giving up a surprising number of home runs given his move to spacious Petco Park. Before that, he was one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball, and I think he should be given the benefit of the doubt for another solid year in 2016 - maybe not an ace but about as reliable a number two starter as they come. Andrew Cashner has always promised to put it all together, with a mid-90s fastball and several useable breaking pitches, but he gives up hard contact and struggles with walks and injuries. Maybe it'll click in 2016, but all signs point towards another solid but unspectacular year. Tyson Ross has been on the cusp of ace-hood since 2014, with one of the best sliders in baseball and he's a popular sleeper Cy Young pick early in the pre-season. Ultimately however, his control needs a little tinkering and the fastball/sinker combination doesn't have power to blow hitters away. Nonetheless, he is a fine number three who has considerable upside. After these three, the water is murkier as Erlin, Rea and Pomeranz battle for the final spots in the rotation. All three have some upside, but ultimately look like AAA players who could eat some innings but won't win many games single-handedly for this team. Innings-eating might be enough from the fourth and fifth starters, but on a rotation lacking a true ace there is very little upside at the back of this group. It's a serviceable group, with some quality at the front, but given the weakness of the line-up there could be very few wins spread between these three at the top of the rotation.
Fernando Rodney has something of a history for outrageous comebacks to relevance, with his magical 2012 season standing out like a sore thumb, but even the biggest Rodney believer (most likely Fernando himself) will find it hard to see much upside in the 39 year old this season. He'll start the year with the closer's gig and could ostensibly run away with it, but with reduced velocity diminishing the effectiveness of his hammer change-up, he likely won't replace Craig Kimbrel in terms of results. Kevin Quackenbush, owner of an elite name, is likely first in line should the Fernando Rodney experience prove too much for Padres leadership, and his 2015 season showed he can be at least a serviceable reliever, better home run luck would make him a good one. Brandon Maurer flashed an absurdly effective change-up in 2015, but his strikeout numbers remained pedestrian and despite rumours of his return to the rotation he will start 2016 attempting to turn his good raw stuff into an effective relief arsenal. Brandon Morrow's story is one of incredible promise but inevitable injury heartbreak, and despite some success out of the rotation last season he will likely start in the bullpen and attempt to get one (please, just one) healthy season under his belt. The stuff if there if the injury bug stays away. Nick Vincent is a reliable bullpen arm who will make up part of the late-inning contingency, whilst Cory Luebke, who hasn't thrown meaningful innings since an impressive 2011 season, will attempt to resurrect his career out of the pen. Rodney aside, this is a pen with some injury-prone upside and reasonably reliable right-handed options. It's not the weakest part of the team, but it's hardly a strength.
2016 Projection
A.J. Preller has proven himself a GM who absolutely loves a trade, and if the Padres are going to compete this season he is going to need to work some real magic at the negotiating table. This line-up is weak, likely the weakest in the division, and relies on the upside of players who have battled injuries or inconsistencies for several seasons. The rotation has a promising front three but falls off the table from there, whilst the bullpen has some interesting reclamation projects but lacks the power arms that could earn this team a few wins over the course of the season. The Kimbrel trade bolstered the farm somewhat, but there is little immediate impact to be found in the Minors, and so this is a team that hasn't committed to a rebuild but probably should. If everything goes right, the likes of Myers, Kemp and Upton will show off the potential they flashed in years past, whilst Cashner and Ross make the jump and become legitimate number one starters. Such a scenario is unlikely, and one where injuries plague a team that is full of broken stars and doom it to 100 losses appears just as likely. I'll split the difference, the Padres won't be a pushover but they're not going to contend in a competitive division.
Projected record: 73-89
San Francisco Giants (84-78)
| No. | Name | Position | Projected 2016 AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denard Span | CF | .280/.333/.387 |
| 2 | Joe Panik | 2B | .277/.331/.383 |
| 3 | Matt Duffy | 3B | .275/.322/.403 |
| 4 | Buster Posey | C | .305/.368/.462 |
| 5 | Hunter Pence | RF | .265/.320/.430 |
| 6 | Brandon Crawford | SS | .249/.314/.408 |
| 7 | Brandon Belt | 1B | .265/.340/.450 |
| 8 | Angel Pagan | LF | .267/.311/.358 |
Projected Opening Day Rotation
| No. | Name | Projected 2016 Innings/Strikeouts/ERA |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Madison Bumgarner | 210/216/2.70 |
| 2 | Johnny Cueto | 207/178/2.87 |
| 3 | Jeff Samardzija | 196/180/3.31 |
| 4 | Jake Peavy | 141/112/3.66 |
| 5 | Matt Cain | 102/83/4.25 |
The Giants line-up will be led by off-season acquisition Denard Span who has struggled with injuries in recent seasons, but if healthy is a solid contact hitter who may have some speed left in his legs. Joe Panik was an enormously impressive four-win player in just 100 games last season, and his elite contact skills and defense make him quietly one of the best second basemen in the league, if he can hit .300 with an OBP north of .350 again he could prove one of the biggest assets in the Giants line-up. Matt Duffy had a breakout season, doing a little bit of everything he showcased in 2014 on his way to a solid season with the bat, and whilst perhaps not a prototypical three-hitter, he's a solid option for the Giants. Buster Posey requires no analysis, as his position as the Majors' best catcher is unquestioned at this point. If he can get back to 20+ homer power he could make a run at MVP honors once again. Pence is in line for a big bounceback season assuming he can stay healthy, whilst Crawford is expected to regress from his monster 2015 by ZiPS but the power looked real and his defense has never been in question. Belt should have another solid season as a .280 hitter with 20+ bombs whilst Angel Pagan is really the only weak spot in a line-up that has a lot of impressive contact hitters. This is also a team that prides itself on elite defense, especially on the infield so there's a lot to like for Giants fans heading into this season on the offensive side of the diamond.
MadBum will once again lead the rotation, and after setting career bests in strikeout and walk rates it almost looks like he is getting better and better. At the age of just 26, it appears that only an injury could slow one of the most talented pitchers in the Majors. Johnny Cueto had a bizarre 2015 season, performing disastrously after his trade to the Royals before turning in several hit and miss starts in the post-season. He was rewarded with a huge contract by the Giants over the off-season, and his ERA since 2011 remains the second-best in the Majors. ZiPS likes him to rebound, especially in a spacious home-park with NL line-ups to face, but he will certainly be an interesting pitcher to watch in the early season action. Jeff Samardzija also struggled mightily last season, seeing a precipitous drop in strikeout rate whilst he was hit harder than ever before. He has the stuff and durability to be a solid number three starter, but he comes with a degree of volatility that may make Giants fans nervous. Jake Peavy appears to be declining rapidly as a top-flight starter, but if he's healthy he should at least be a solid innings-eater for the Giants and he has impressive results as an NL starter in recent years. Matt Cain has struggled with injuries and inconsistent results in previous seasons, but now fully healthy it will be interesting to see if he can rebound to his pre-2014 levels of performance. ZiPS doesn't like him to do so, and the stuff has almost certainly deteriorated so his rotation spot may come under threat at some point.
Santiago Casilla had a nice 2015 campaign as the Giants closer, increasing his strikeout rate on his way to 38 saves in the regular season. The job will once more be his to lose, but at age 35 and with questionable peripheral stats he will have to perform well right out of the gate to be the Giants ninth-inning man all year. Sergio Romo is perhaps the most recognisable name in the Giants 'pen, and he returned to dominating form in 2015, generating his most swings and misses since 2011 whilst trading some fly-balls for ground-balls and restricting the home runs that had plagued him in 2014. He's probably the most talented arm in this pen, with a wipeout slider that gives right-handed hitters fits, but he'll be the eighth-inning man, at least to start the year. Hunter Strickland is another talented right-hander, possessing a fastball that touches 100mph and at the age of 27 he could be expected to take another stride forward this season and become a reliable late-game option for Bruce Bochy. The retirement of Jeremy Affeldt may push left-hander Javier Lopez into more work as the primary southpaw in the bullpen, but having logged less than 40 innings over the past four years as a one-out guy, Lopez likely won't play a much larger role this year. Chris Heston will be the long-man in the bullpen as well as the first option should the rotation require patching up, and he had a very solid 2015 campaign that should make him a Yusmeiro Petit-esque option for the Giants. Overall, the bullpen is solid, with three quality right-handed options although perhaps a dearth of depth and stuff lower down. If the rotation can find the form it has been missing in Spring, this staff has more than enough quality to close out most leads.
2016 Projection
The Giants seemingly always field a competitive roster, and in Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner they have a superstar on the line-up and on the mound. The line-up is full of contact-first hitters who will be tough to strike out, and if the likes of Span, Pence and Pagan can bounce back it could actually be one of the more potent line-ups in the National League. On the bump, Bumgarner will once again be expected to shoulder a super-human workload, but if anyone can it is the talented leftie. Cueto and Samardzija both have considerable question marks over their performance but both should be poised to rebound from disappointing 2015 campaigns, whilst Peavy/Cain/Heston should be good for 400 solid innings between them, which is really all you can ask for at the back end. A new bullpen piece might be a target come the trade deadline, but in Romo the Giants have one of the best right-handed relief options in the game, so I see no reason why this bullpen can't be an asset for the team. Overall, the Giants have put a very solid team together, and assuming good health I see no reason why they can't push the Dodgers for the division but those rotation question marks mean they may have to settle for a wildcard race.
Projected record: 85-77
Colorado Rockies (68-94)
Projected Opening Day Line-up
| No. | Name | Position | Projected 2016 AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlie Blackmon | CF | .285/.336/.438 |
| 2 | D.J. LeMahieu | 2B | .287/.335/.382 |
| 3 | Carlos Gonzalez | LF | .274/.332/.528 |
| 4 | Nolan Arenado | 3B | .287/.324/.530 |
| 5 | Gerardo Parra | RF | .292/.335/.422 |
| 6 | Ben Paulsen | 1B | .260/.313/.451 |
| 7 | Nick Hundley | C | .274/.316/.427 |
| 8 | Trevor Story | SS | .244/.308/.441 |
Projected Opening Day Rotation
| No. | Name | Projected 2016 Innings/Strikeouts/ERA |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jorge De La Rosa | 143/112/4.22 |
| 2 | Chad Bettis | 139/114/4.55 |
| 3 | Jordan Lyles | 107/69/4.66 |
| 4 | Tyler Chatwood | 53/38/4.61 |
| 5 | Jon Gray | 141/118/4.49 |
The Rockies line-up is always a tough one to judge, as Coors Field can make even the most average of hitter look impressive with the high altitude contributing to impressive home run rates and the spacious outfields almost guaranteeing a high average on balls in play. Charlie Blackmon has been accused of being a product of Coors, but his ability to put the ball in play, get on base and then steal a bag once he is there has stood up over two seasons now. D.J. LeMahieu is an elite defensive second baseman, and his high-contact approach at the plate has also been highly effective in recent seasons, although it's a fairly empty average. Carlos Gonzalez has one of the prettiest swings in baseball, but his increasingly alarming platoon splits should really prevent him from being an everyday player. Arenado is one of the most talented third basemen in the game today, an incredibly gifted defender who was an offensive monster last season, piling up 89 extra-base hits and 130 RBI. He rarely takes a walk, restricting his on-base value, but he's a rare shining beacon of hope in this desolate Rockies team. Parra was a big off-season signing who should provide four wins of value through his above average offense and great defense, but Ben Paulsen and Nick Hundley are both starkly average players who will rely on Coors-inflated stat-lines. Jose Reyes' impending court sentence and possible suspension will likely rule him out at least the start of the season, allowing the Rockies to have a look at long-time prospect Trevor Story who has slowed his production as he gets closer to the Majors but remains the presumed long-term replacement for Troy Tulowitzki.
Jorge De La Rosa is a solid starting pitcher, but a far cry from an ace, and whilst a healthy season from him would be a huge boost for the Rockies, he isn't going to be able to carry this staff. Chad Bettis was a pleasant 2015 surprise for Colorado, piling up a decent number of strikeouts and groundballs which is basically all you can do at Coors, but he is projected to regress by ZiPS this season. Jordan Lyles has seemingly been around for ages, but at age 25 he remains young. Unfortunately, he has never been a particularly good or healthy starter, and whilst the high groundball rate is promising, a full season of work will likely expose some flaws in the young right-handers arsenal. Tyler Chatwood has thrown just 34 innings in professional baseball since 2013, and whilst he was a useful pitcher back then, it remains a massive question mark as to how healthy he can be, how productive his stuff is and how many innings he can offer this team over the course of the season. Young flamethrower Jon Gray is an exciting prospect for Rockies fans, and whilst his 2015 statistics weren't eye-popping, the peripheral strikeout and walk statistics show that he has the stuff to last in the Majors. His development in 2016 will be vitally important for the future of the rotation, especially considering how weak this 2015 version is.
Colorado made a big splash in the off-season trade market by sending talented outfielder Corey Dickerson over to Tampa Bay in exchange for quality lefty reliever Jake McGee. McGee appears poised to start the season as the Rockies closer, and his elite strikeout rate will make him a viable option, even if a few more fly balls leave the park at Coors Field. Jason Motte was another free agent acquisition, and though Motte is no longer the potent strikeout weapon he was several years ago, if he is fully healthy he should be a reliable late-inning option for the Rockies. Chad Qualls was also acquired in the off-season, and is a bog standard reliever who likely will not provide the Rockies with much more than innings-eating skills, although the high ground-ball rate makes him a better fit for Coors than many other pitchers. After a disastrous 2014 campaign, Boone Logan bounced back somewhat in 2015, although in the last year of a three-year deal he would have to have some kind of 2016 season to represent any kind of value on that contract. At this point, he appears to be a lefty specialist in the Rockies' pen assuming he can stay on the field, and whilst that gives him more impressive strikeout rates and reduces the home run bug that struck him two years ago, it gives him limited value in this group. Miguel Castro was one of the key pieces in the Troy Tulowitzki trade and he may be given a chance in relief at some point this season, although Colorado would be wise to at least try and utilise him as a starter considering the elite stuff he flashed in 2014.
2016 Projection
The Rockies have a few exciting players in their line-up, most notably in the form of young third baseman Nolan Arenado who is must-watch TV at the plate and in the field. Unfortunately, the line-up also contains several overpaid veterans with limited ceilings, and although the return of Reyes will ensure this is a high-scoring offense, it doesn't appear that it will be enough to carry this team to many victories. The rotation is, as always, a mess, with a couple of solid innings-eaters attempting to lead the way and a lot of ground-ball first guys who are set to struggle considerably in the unforgiving Colorado climate, as well as a number of injury risks. Jon Gray has a bright future, and the Rockies need to prioritise his development this season, although guys like De La Rosa and Bettis could generate some trade value with strong first-halves. The bullpen is hardly lights out, but in McGee they at least have a solid ninth-inning arm, although at Coors any fly ball pitcher is at risk of imploding. Simply put, this is a team in need of a rebuild, and the pitiful return for Troy Tulowitzki was not a good way to go about achieving that. Guys like Gonzalez, Blackmon and De La Rosa are going to be heavily shopped come the deadline, and whilst some exciting action is sure to come out of Coors this season it could be a while until Denver gets to see post-season baseball once again.
Projected record: 69-93
Arizona Diamondbacks (79-83)
Projected Opening Day Line-up
| No. | Name | Position | Projected 2016 AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jean Segura | 2B | .267/.300/.361 |
| 2 | A.J. Pollock | CF | .293/.345/.461 |
| 3 | Paul Goldschmidt | 1B | .288/.397/.523 |
| 4 | David Peralta | RF | .293/.347/.485 |
| 5 | Welington Castillo | C | .249/.314/.418 |
| 6 | Jake Lamb | 3B | .247/.314/.390 |
| 7 | Socrates Brito | LF | .259/.287/.382 |
| 8 | Nick Ahmed | SS | .243/.287/.354 |
Projected Opening Day Rotation
| No. | Name | Projected 2016 Innings/Strikeouts/ERA |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zack Greinke | 191/174/2.78 |
| 2 | Shelby Miller | 185/156/3.65 |
| 3 | Patrick Corbin | 129/105/3.71 |
| 4 | Robbie Ray | 152/143/3.86 |
| 5 | Rubby De La Rosa | 163/132/4.36 |
The D-Backs line-up stands out as a real stars and scrubs project, with some incredible talent at the heart of it but some real black holes lower down. Jean Segura appears set to start the season as the lead-off hitter, although Chris Owings will be breathing down his neck. Segura has been awful with the bat ever since his amazing half-a-season in 2013, unable to sustain a high average and totally averse to drawing even a single walk. With his speed also on the decline, he really shouldn't be in with a shot at the lead-off job but brainless decisions are nothing new for the Diamondbacks. A.J. Pollock was simply fantastic last season, mashing 19 home runs and stealing 40 bases, and ZiPS likes him to put up a fairly similar season in 2016. Paul Goldschmidt is maybe the most consistent hitter in baseball, an incredible study in offense who is sure to have another MVP calibre season as the league's best first baseman. David Peralta's meteoric rise has continued unabated with a fantastic 2015 campaign, and ZiPS is extremely bullish on his projection for the coming season. After these three superstars, things begin to fall apart. Castillo has good right-handed pop but little else, Lamb and Brito are both promising youngsters that will likely face a year of development and adjustments, whilst Nick Ahmed is a glove-first shortstop who appears to face an uphill battle to post an OBP north of .300. There is of course some upside to these players - this is a young line-up entering its peak in the next few years - but considering the talent at the heart of the team, the supporting cast feel like a bit of a let down.
Zack Greinke was the biggest name to move this off-season after an unbelievable 2015 campaign, and it was something of a shock when he landed on the Diamondbacks. Regression from the ERA well under 2 is to be expected, but 200 more ace-like innings seems guaranteed for the consistent right-hander. Shelby Miller appears poised for some regression of his own, especially considering the homer-prone Chase Field he now starts half of his games at. A newly developed change-up and increased strikeout rates provide cause for optimism however, and the D-Backs will be hoping for another big year for the young righty. Patrick Corbin provided just about the dream return from Tommy John surgery, with increased fastball velocity and even improved command. His innings will almost certainly be limited, but if he can stay healthy he has number one starter upside and will be a fascinating pitcher to watch in the early season proceedings. Robbie Ray had a nice 2015 campaign, and enters 2016 aged just 24. If he can cut the walk rate, he could be in for a huge season as his platoon splits are off-set by his plus changeup. Rubby De La Rosa has been a very hyped and very disappointing starter for several seasons now, and though the 95mph fastball and hard breaking slider provide reasons for optimism, I would have to see a full season of results from him before I believe it. As the number five starter though, he has undoubted upside. Zack Godley and Archie Bradley provide depth, although the latter's 2015 struggles have rather tampered his upside from his top prospect status several seasons ago.
Brad Ziegler had a fantastic 2015 season, saving 30 games with a 1.85 ERA, all despite striking out just 36 in 68 innings. The reason was his superb groundball rate of 73% thanks to his hard sinking submarine action which limits fly-balls and encourages double plays. He'll lead the D-Backs bullpen once again, and though the low rate of strikeouts suggests regression, if he can continue his knack for inducing ground balls then there is no reason he can't be successful. Tyler Clippard is almost the polar opposite of Ziegler - his pitiful 2015 groundball rate of 21.2% was worst in the Majors - but he is a similarly effective reliever thanks to a devastating change-up. Although not quite as good in 2015 as he was the year before, he remains a top option at the back end of games, and even if a few more fly balls leave the yard in cosy Chase Field, his strikeout propensity makes him a consistent performer regardless of the team. Daniel Hudson made a wonderful return from three years of injuries in 2015 as an elite relief option in the Arizona 'pen and he looks set to continue that role in 2016. A few less walks and more BABIP/home run luck could see him make the jump to elite relief option. Andrew Chafin will be the primary lefty in the pen, whilst Josh Collmenter and Randall Delgado are more than capable long-relief/spot start options for the D-Backs. The bullpen isn't elite, but it has depth and talented arms, which assuming the rotation is improved from last season is all that will be required.
2016 Projection
I'm quietly optimistic about this Diamondbacks team. In Goldschmidt they have a legitimate MVP candidate, whilst Pollock and Peralta are both good bets to put up quiet four-win seasons or more in the outfield. The rest of the line-up has question marks, but if one or more of the likes of Segura, Owings, Ahmed, Lamb and Brito can make the step-up and outperform expectations this has the making of a team that can score a lot of runs. Quietly, they outscored the Dodgers in 2015. The rotation was a bit of a mess last season (Collmenter was opening day starter) but in the front office's defense they have gone out and changed that with the Greinke and Miller acquisitions whilst the dominating return of Corbin bodes very well for both his and the team's future. If the front five in that squad can stay healthy, that could be a strong rotation in a division that boasts considerable pitching depth. Chip Hale hasn't proved himself a particularly talented manager, and the D-Backs have a weird obsession with making terrible personnel decisions but the talent on this roster is adequate to compete for the division. With the Dodgers and Giants also at full strength, it's almost certain that one of the three teams will disappoint but Arizona has the talent to compete all the way into September. I think they'll have a big year.
Projected record: 89-73
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The NL West is lining up to be a fascinating and competitive division in 2016 with at least three teams in line for a record above .500. The Dodgers remain the team to beat, with a potent line-up and shockingly deep pitching staff but the Giants have a loaded roster and the D-Backs have some star players who could take this team to their first playoff berth since 2011. The Rockies look set for another season at the bottom of the division, and if the team struggles in the first half expect a real clearance of the talent on the roster around the trade deadline. At this point, the team may as well go into full rebuild mode and retool with some high draft picks as they did in 2015. The Padres continue to insist on a pretence of competitiveness, but a line-up stuffed with high-risk players and a rotation with very little depth leaves much to be desired. Ultimately, any of the top three teams could run away with this division making it very hard to predict, but the Dodgers just have too much talent on both sides of the field not to be favourites. I think the Giants rotation could be its undoing, although Cueto and Samardzija are both not long removed from four-win seasons. The D-Backs are a real enigma - they could win anything between 75 and 95 games - but ultimately I think this is the beginning of the window for a young team with a lot of upside. It could be one year too early for a group of players that are still learning on the go. Here's hoping for some crucial September tilts, a narrative where Kershaw, Greinke and Bumgarner are leading their respective teams to the division crown would be some kind of story to follow.
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