Assessing the early MVP candidates

With over two months of baseball already in the books, now would appear to be a good time to take a look at the early season candidates for the MVP, ROTY and Cy Young awards. Of course, a lot will change between today and the end of the season, but seeing which players fizzled out over the second half will be interesting.

The AL MVP Race

Front-runner - Miguel Cabrera

After raking his way to the triple crown and subsequently the MVP award last season, Cabrera has only gone and hit even better this season, with a .358/.451/.638 triple-slash and 19 home runs. He looks like being at the heart of another triple crown race, and whilst his defensive metrics let him down a bit (-6 DRS), his offensive game is so spectacular that he has made himself the early favourite once again. It wouldn't surprise me to see him lead the league in average and RBI once again, although I think he'll be hard-pressed to win the home run crown this season. If he can end the season with a .335/.420/.600 triple-slash, he'll have surely done enough to secure back-to-back MVP awards.

Overall verdict: It's going to take some serious regression or a tough-luck injury to slow down Cabrera.

The break-out guy - Chris Davis

Not many people would have had Chris Davis on their MVP ballot to start the season, but his major-league leading 24 home runs are beginning to turn some heads. The .337 average is boosted by an unsustainable .386 BABIP, but he has reduced his strikeout percentage from 30% to 25% and boosted his walk rate from 6.6% to 11%, suggesting an average in the high .200's could be a distinct possibility. Like Cabrera, Davis doesn't gain any value from his base-running or defense, but his bat is so hot that he will be breathing down Cabrera's neck to the end. If he wants to win the MVP award, he's going to need to lead the league in homers, whilst batting .300 and taking the Orioles to another post-season. I think he's due for some regression, but Davis could yet be in the picture come October.

Overall verdict: The power is legit, but his lack of history might hold him back.

The wily veteran - David Ortiz

I spoke at length earlier in the season about Ortiz, and how I expected him to have a big year. Up until his injury last season, his numbers were on pace with Miguel Cabrera, and so far this season he has not let me down. After missing most of the first month with the lingering achilles problem, Ortiz has been furiously making up the lost ground since then, with a .299 average, .382 OBP and .599 slugging percentage as well as 14 big flies. If he can stay healthy all season, he should be a great producer in every hitting category, and whilst the early injury will hold him back in the counting stats, he will profit from a good storyline if the Red Sox make the play-offs.

Overall verdict: Early injury and lack of position will inhibit his chances.

The 5-tool youngster - Mike Trout

Some people (myself included) believe that Trout should have won the MVP award last season, but Trout has not rested on his laurels and has come back out swinging this year. The .305 average and .382 OBP are behind last season's paces, but a .330 average was never sustainable, and Trout still has time to bump it up with a monster second half. The power is once again on display, with 12 home runs, whilst his 15 steals and elite defense (despite what the defensive metrics say) in the outfield give him an added dimension that the other candidates do not possess. Trout is probably behind in the race for the award so far this season, but a big second half could propel him right back into the running.

Overall verdict: Regression from his 2012 numbers and Angels poor start leave Trout playing catch-up.

The NL MVP Race

Front-runner - Carlos Gonzalez

Unlike in the American League, there is no obvious front-runner in the NL, but largely unnoticed, Carlos Gonzalez has been putting up monster numbers for the Rockies. The .311 average is nothing beyond his capabilities, as he hit .336 in 2010 on his way to the NL batting title and has been around .300 for his whole career at Coors. His K rate is actually up from last season, at 25%, but the walk rate has been bumped up too, to 11.4%, suggesting more patience from a typically aggressive hitter. Where has has excelled this season is in the power department, with an NL leading 20 homers and .640 slugging. This is largely thanks to a titanic increase in fly-ball percentage from 30% to 42%, whilst the HR/FB rate has also increased to 25%, which isn't unsustainable at Coors. The most shocking thing, has perhaps been his road hitting ability, as the one criticism of Gonzalez had always been his inability to hit outside Coors. He's actually hitting much better on the road, with a .348 average and 11 homers, but his frailty has prevented him from playing more than 145 games before in his career. His 13 steals also make him a decent threat for a 30/30 season, although on his current paces a 40/30 season wouldn't be beyond reach.

Overall verdict: Gonzalez isn't getting the credit his season deserves, but if he stays healthy all season that should change.

The break-out guy - Paul Goldschmidt

Goldschmidt's ability to crush lefties is nothing new, but his new-found ability to crush right-handers too has turned him into one of the best sluggers in the National League. The .305/.386/.556 triple-slash is elite, and the 16 home runs put him on pace for close to 35. Goldschmidt is showing more patience than in recent seasons, and his 61 RBI lead the National League. He has cooled off a bit recently, but is still one of the best young hitters in the league and should be on for a monster season at the heart of the D-Backs line-up. He also has surprising speed for a first baseman, and could quietly steal 15 bases, further boosting his resumé.

Overall verdict: If he can guide the D-Backs into the post-season, he becomes MVP favourite.

The wily veteran - Joey Votto

Votto is the most advanced hitter in the Major Leagues, and his incredible understanding of the game combined with ridiculous hitting ability make every at-bat a fascinating spectacle. Despite the fact his walk percentage is down to 16.7%, Votto leads the majors with 53 walks and the .438 OBP is second only to Cabrera. He may never repeat the 37 homer 2010 campaign, but his 12 home runs aren't negligible, and you get the feeling he could hit 15 in a month if he really turns it on at the plate. Greatness is almost expected from Votto now, and he keeps proving that he is one of the finest pure hitters in the game. The lack of power may inhibit his MVP chances, but his ridiculous ability make him a constant candidate.

Overall verdict: Not a slugger in the usual sense, but video game numbers make him perennial candidate.

The 5-tool youngster - Jean Segura/Carlos Gomez

I've bunched these two early-season stars together, because they have comparable skill-sets and both play for the Brewers. Segura has been a revelation at short-stop this season, with a .330 average to go with 10 homers and 19 steals. He doesn't hit enough fly balls to keep up this home run pace, but the average and steals may well be legitimate, whilst his quality defense at short gives him an excellent all-round game. Meanwhile, Gomez is proving there is more than one CarGo in the MVP picture, as his .317 average is backed by 12 homers and 13 steals. He has been ridiculous on defense in center field, and if he can keep up the hot hitting, he could be a real sleeper MVP candidate considering the depth of his production. Both players are limited by the fact that the Brewers are not a competitive team, but they provide a bright future for this franchise up the middle of the field.

Overall verdict: Will need monster second-halfs to put themselves in contention, but their all-round games are very impressive indeed.

So, there you have it. A quick summation of the MVP prospects in both leagues - which guys do you fancy do still be on this list come September?

Notable mention must be given to Troy Tulowitzki, who was putting up MVP numbers until the latest in a series of injuries.