Are the Cleveland Indians for real?

Last season, the Detroit Tigers were hampered all season by a dogged chase from the Chicago White Sox, who stayed with them all the way into September until fading in the final few weeks. Few expected them to face as much trouble this season, but after two months they sit just 0.5 games clear in the AL Central. It's not the White Sox causing them problems this time, but the resurgent Cleveland Indians. Their 29-24 record is keeping pace with the AL front-runners and this is despite going 3-7 in their past 10 games. This is nothing new. At this point last season, the Indians were doing exactly the same thing as their 27-23 record was making them look like a competitive team. Ultimately they were very disappointing in the second half and ended up with an atrocious 68-94 record, barely avoiding the AL Central wooden spoon. What makes anyone think this year will be different?

Well, for starters, Terry Francona is a very, very good manager. After spending a year away from baseball following his sacking as manager of the Red Sox, Francona got back into managing at the helm of the Indians squad. Although their hot start can't be placed solely on the shoulders of the manager, Francona has clearly had some effect on the players, and more noticeably he has been a good in-game tactician. His team has been running wild on the bases, with 39 steals (good for fourth in the AL) despite having few obvious base-stealers outside the speedy Michael Bourn. His team also ranks fourth-last in the league in sacrifice bunts, and second in the league in home runs. The team isn't playing for three one-run innings, but for that one seven-run inning, as they did last night when they put seven two-out runs on the board in the fourth inning against the Reds.

Of course, Francona isn't the man at the dish driving those runs in, and the offense has been the main strong point for this team so far. Michael Bourn has been a sparkplug atop the line-up, hitting .311 with a .359 OBP and eight steals, despite missing two weeks with a hand injury. Heavy hitting catcher Carlos Santana has cooled off a bit after his .350 start, but a .284/.396/.503 triple-slash is heady production. Mark Reynolds has torn the leather off the ball so far in Cleveland, leading the team with 13 jacks and 41 runs batted in whilst fellow free agent acquisition Nick Swisher is doing everything asked of him with a .363 OBP. This is a team that hits for a lot of power, and draws a lot of walks. It also has great depth, with back-up catcher Yan Gomes demanding more playing time to go with his .319 average, and part-time players like Raburn, Stubbs and Aviles all contributing when needed. This might not be the best offense in the American League, but it's probably the most underrated.

And now onto the pitching staff. Justin Masterson has so far been a legitimate ace for the Tribe, going 8-3 with a 3.07 ERA and 83 strikeouts in just 82 innings. His 1.7 WAR is already nearing last seasons 2.0 mark as he has proven more able at keeping the ball in the yard. Left-handers still own a significant platoon advantage, but there's recent to think Masterson can continue being an effective workhorse. After him, however, things get a little more shaky. Zach McAllister has an impressive 3.08 ERA in 61.1 innings, but his xFIP of 4.48 shows he has gotten a little lucky with his strand rate and HR/FB rate. Whilst there's reason to think he can sustain an ERA around 4, I don't think he'll continue to be this effective all season, so regression seems pretty likely. Ubaldo Jimenez has been nothing short of atrocious in his time at Cleveland, and the 5.57 ERA this season is testament to that. His xFIP of 3.82 shows he's actually been unlucky this season, as the 17.8% HR/FB rate seems high, even for an erratic pitcher like Jimenez. The strikeouts are at least improving, as he has 53 K's in 51.2 innings, but even if Jimenez benefits from more luck, it's hard to think he'll ever return to his Rockies form.

In the bullpen, what started as a solid foundation has quickly crumbled in recent weeks, as closer Chris Perez has been sidelined with rotator cuff tendinitis, and his fill-in Vinnie Pestano has been unable to discover his usually dominant form after an injury that kept him sidelined earlier this month. Joe Smith has actually been a superb option, and is slowly earning the trust of his manager, which tends to happen when you own a 1.00 ERA and 19/5 K/BB ratio. The bullpen should improve, especially Pestano and Perez, though I still think the Indians would be wise to trade the latter as soon as they get a decent offer. Intriguing rookie Trevor Bauer has made a few spot-starts for the Indians, contrasting nigh-unhittable stuff with an inability to throw strikes. He should make the jump to the rotation full time at some point this season, but there's not much more impact to come from the minors unfortunately.

So, what can we expect from this point forward? So far the gutsy off-season moves have paid dividends as the hitters have been on fire. Their schedule to begin May is pretty friendly, although the three game set in Detroit should be a good tussle. Towards the end of the month, however, things get a lot trickier, as the Indians play the Tigers, Red Sox, Reds and Rays in consecutive series followed by tough match-ups with the Rangers and Nationals in June. If they can get through those games with first place still in their sights, then it will be time to take them seriously, but the rotation is due for regression and the bullpen is a bit of a mess. Besides, we've seen this script before, and it didn't end well for Indians fans.