Following on from my posts earlier this week on early Cy Young candidates and early MVP candidates, the mini series is concluded today with a look at the excelling rookies. Once again, this isn't an exhaustive list and I'll undoubtedly miss a couple of guys, but these are some of the interesting rookies to watch in the second half...
The AL ROTY Race
The front-runner - José Iglesias
After last season's bumper AL rookie crop that included Trout, Darvish, Cespedes and Moore, this year has been a major disappointment. Some early favourites have only just been called up, in the form of Jurickson Profar and Wil Myers, but the best AL rookie so far this season, at least in terms of WAR, has been Jose Iglesias of the Red Sox with 1.6 wins. He's played in just 31 games, and so has an unsustainable .431 average in his 114 plate appearances, boosted by a .494 BABIP. He has little power or speed, and is generally viewed as a glove-first shortstop, who would probably bat 8th on most AL teams. Whilst he has been a nice surprise for the Sox this season, I don't expect him to scoop up the award come October.
Overall verdict: Unsustainable hitting has him leading crop, odds are stacked against him to keep it up.
The top prospect - Jurickson Profar
Profar finally got his much-anticipated season underway a month ago when Kinsler hit the DL, and whilst his stats have been good enough to keep him on the big league roster, they aren't quite ROTY calibre yet. The .269 average is fine, but with just one homer and one steal, he hasn't been providing much other value, and is now being played out of position in the outfield. Profar is good enough to suddenly go on a tear, as he did at AAA, but it hasn't quite been the rookie season that some expected from him so far.
Overall verdict: He may be a future star, but Profar has some way to go to secure ROTY honours.
The pitching stud - Dan Straily
The A's had a rookie-filled rotation last season, and though Straily played a part in it towards the end of the season, he was able to maintain his rookie eligibility and has been very effective so far this year for the A's. The 4.97 ERA isn't particularly impressive, but the 3.56 FIP prove he has been unlucky, whilst the 1.2 WAR leads all AL pitchers. Rangers rookies Nick Tepesch and Justin Grimm both got off to fast starts but have regressed towards the mean in recent weeks.
Overall verdict: There's no Darvish in this year's crop, but maybe a Matt Harvey type will spring from the woodwork.
The dark horse - Nick Franklin
The Mariners have a far from perfect record with young hitting prospects in recent seasons, but so far this season they have been unable to ruin Nick Franklin. The switch-hitting middle infielder has spent most of his time at second base and the .277 average with four homers and three steals have been a nice bonus for the M's. Coming into the season, a big criticism was his poor approach batting right-handed, and it appeared he may become a full-time lefty, but so far this season his .280 average with one home run against lefties suggest he may have made some adjustments. If Franklin can continue to hit around the .280 mark with some power and speed, he could be a good shot at the ROTY award.
Overall verdict: Franklin won't earn much attention in Seattle, but is quietly making up for his lost time.
The NL ROTY Race
The front-runner - Shelby Miller
Miller has been dominant for the Cardinals so far this season, with a ridiculous 2.08 ERA and a K/9 rate of over 10. His fastball has overpowered even the most hardened Major League hitters with his pinpoint control, whilst the breaking ball has drawn comparisons to fellow red-bird Adam Wainwright. The 8-4 record is worthy of a ROTY winner, and if Miller can build on this hot start to win 15 games with a sub-3 ERA, he could well be a shoo-in for the award.
Overall verdict: If Miller can keep this up, he could be in with a shot at the Cy Young, never mind ROTY
The top prospect - José Fernandez
Mike Trout had the greatest age-20 season in baseball history last season on his way to the rookie of the year and second place in MVP balloting. Fernandez is doing his best to provide a solid encore on the mound. Despite having pitched a handful of innings at a level higher than A-ball to enter the season, Fernandez has been superb, with a 3.05 ERA and more than a strikeout per inning. He doesn't have much run support or publicity, pitching on a woeful Marlins roster, but if he continues to dominate every fifth day he may begin to earn some more respect.
Overall verdict: Has been quietly superb, now can he keep it up.
The hitting stud - Evan Gattis
Seeing as the front-runner and top prospect were pitchers, I figured I would provide some balance with a hitter at this point. Gattis got off to a rip-roaring start with the Braves, and though his role has been reduced with the return of McCann and his recent struggles against right-handed pitching, he still leads NL hitters with 1.9 WAR. The .317 OBP isn't particularly impressive, but the 14 homers are, and if he can earn enough at-bats to be productive over the course of the season then he could be in with a good shot at the ROTY title.
Overall verdict: Tough class and lack of playing time may cost Gattis.
The dark horse - Yasiel Puig
Puig has set the league on fire in his first two weeks, hitting .455 with a .773 slugging over his first 17 games, and compiling an extraordinary 1.3 WAR already. He has socked six homers and stolen a pair of bases, all the while enthralling crowds with his all-out style of play. He's already drawn comparisons to Bo Jackson, and some believe he is putting in the 'Mike Trout season' for 2013. It's too early to christen him a hall-of-famer after 17 games of course, and though he has made great strides towards the ROTY title, he will have to deal with some regression (at least we think he will) and needs to stay healthy all year.
Overall verdict: Incredible start has thrown him into contention - can he keep it going?
Eight guys who are in the mix for their respective ROTY titles, and it is of course possible that the award winners aren't even in the Majors yet, with guys like Wil Myers and Oscar Taveras either just up or still in the minors. In a reverse of last season, this year's AL crop is very thin, whilst the NL is bulging with talents beyond those I've outlined, such as Hyun-Jin Ryu and Jedd Gyorko.
No comments:
Post a Comment