Following on from yesterday's post on MVP candidates, today I'll present the early frontrunners for the Cy Young awards... It's worth pointing out that this is not an exhaustive list of all candidates, but a spotlight on a few of the major ones.
The AL Cy Young Race
The front-runner - Hisashi Iwakuma
It's really tough to pick a front-runner in the AL Cy Young race, because there are so many leading candidates bunched up together. Considering that Iwakuma has three more starts than Buchholz under his belt, he gets the nod, but it could easily have been the Boston ace instead. Iwakuma has been dominant since last season's all-star break, giving him nearly a full season of ace-caliber performances. His 2.06 ERA is insane, his 0.89 WHIP unsurprisingly leads the league, and the 90 strikeouts in 100 innings are very healthy indeed. I'm not sure how long he can sustain this success for, but as he continues to rack up wins, strikeouts and lower that ERA, his Cy Young credentials are only getting better.
Overall verdict: Has been dominant so far, but can he keep it up all season?
The perennial ace - Felix Hernandez
It says something of the quality of your hitting when your team has two of the top pitchers in baseball but is only 32-40. The Mariners certainly don't have the top of their rotation to blame, as Hernandez has been as good as his battery mate Iwakuma this season. It's easy to overlook how good he's been because, well, we expect it of Hernandez now, but a 2.32 ERA with 110 strikeouts in 104 innings is very special indeed. He's throwing his change-up more than ever this season, and despite the fact that it is just 3mph slower than his average fastball, it continues to be one of the most devastating pitches in the Majors. The King continues to go about his work, largely unnoticed, but it would shock nobody to see him atop the major pitching categories at the end of the season, making him a strong contender once again.
Overall verdict: Mariners woes may hold him back, but King is worthy of another Cy Young crown.
The 'where did this guy come from' - Ervin Santana
Yes, the very same Ervin Santana that allowed 39 home runs last year with a 5.16 ERA. Well, this year Santana has been outstanding with the Royals, with a 2.64 ERA and minuscule 0.98 WHIP. The 14 home runs suggest that the fly ball problem is still underlying for Santana, but he is striking out hitters at a solid rate and has dramatically reduced the walk rate from 3 BB/9 to just 1.5 BB/9. The 3.88 FIP suggests regression may be due, but regardless of how he's done it, Santana has genuinely made himself into one of the better pitchers in the AL in the first half of the season, and has earned his place on a list of Cy Young contenders.
Overall verdict: Walk and strikeout rates are promising, but how long will it be until home run problem returns?
The strikeout machine - Yu Darvish
Darvish was my early pick for Cy Young, and he has shown flashes of pure brilliance this season, as evidenced by the other-wordly 137 strikeouts in 101 innings. The 2.84 ERA is still ridiculously good, but walks have plagued him a bit, and the home runs will always be an issue in Arlington. There are few pitchers more likely to throw a no hitter this season, because when Darvish is locating his fastball, the off-speed stuff is just untouchable. If he can begin to develop any kind of consistency, then he'll push himself right to the front of the Cy Young race, although he hasn't won a game in over a month due to poor run support.
Overall verdict: Improved control has Darvish cruising into contention.
The dark horse - Anibal Sanchez
Sanchez had been an effective pitcher with the Marlins, with several seasons of mid-3 ERA's under his belt. This season, however, he has taken his game to the next step, with an outstanding 2.76 ERA and extraordinary 11.13 K/9. Perhaps most impressively, advanced metrics suggest that Sanchez has suffered from bad luck, with a ridiculous 2.06 FIP. Largely unnoticed in a rotation full of aces, Sanchez is putting together an outstanding season with Detroit, and may find himself embroiled in a Cy Young race come September.
Overall verdict: Strikeout dominance taking Sanchez into unknown territories - can he keep it up?
Notable mentions to Chris Sale, Max Scherzer and Alex Cobb who are also having outstanding seasons.
The NL Cy Young Race
The front-runner - Adam Wainwright
Again, there are so many potential front-runners, but Adam Wainwright's 10-4 record swings it, even though pitcher wins and losses are meaningless to everyone but the Cy Young voters. His 2.37 ERA isn't too bad either, and the 1.01 WHIP is fairly outstanding. Perhaps most impressive is the fact he has ceded nine (9) walks in 110 innings, which is an indicator of just how outstanding his command is. He's allowed just four home runs all season, and has struck out 100 hitters - Wainwright is truly at the top of his game as he guides the Cardinals towards a play-off berth.
Overall verdict: A dominant season from Wainwright, I'd be shocked if we weren't discussing his name in October.
The perennial ace - Clayton Kershaw
It's hard to describe just how good Clayton Kershaw is. Somehow, the Dodgers have contrived to give him just a 5-4 record on the season, because Kershaw is turning in some of the finest performances you're ever likely to see. His 1.84 ERA is stupendous, and he's striking out hitters at almost a rate of one per inning. Not only that, but Kershaw has earned a reputation for being a better second-half pitcher - his ERA might be something stupid after the all-star break. If Joey Votto has figured out hitting, then Clayton Kershaw has figured out pitching, as he no longer looks to strike hitters out, but just tries to go deep into games, saving the bullpen and being more efficient. Right now, Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball, and at 25 years of age, he might be getting better.
Overall verdict: He probably won't have a 1.84 ERA all season, but then again...
The 'where did this guy come from' - Shelby Miller
Miller was able to win a tough battle in Spring Training to earn the final spot in the St Louis rotation, and he's looked pretty good since then. The 22 year old rookie has been dominant, with just two pitches, on his way to a 2.08 ERA with 96 strikeouts in 86 innings. The Cardinals are understandably being cautious with Miller, and an innings cap of around 180 innings seems likely, but if Miller can have an ERA around 2 for the rest of the season, he might only need 180. His fastball control is equal to that of a 30 year old veteran, and even though his curveball is really his only other pitch, he has kept hitters floundering away all season.
Overall verdict: Hitters may adjust, but this has been an outstanding debut season for Miller.
The strikeout machine - Matt Harvey
Coming up through the minor leagues, scouts doubted Harvey's ability to pitch in the Majors because of a lack of a good breaking ball. His fastball and change-up were both outstanding, but his slider hadn't really developed and the curveball was a work in progress. Well, fast forward a year, and Harvey has one of the filthiest sliders in the Majors. His fastball runs up to 100mph with great life, and he complements it with a sharp 90mph slider that he throws to both right and left-handed hitters. The change-up has taken somewhat of a back-seat, but it's still a swing and miss pitch, and his 2.16 ERA with 115 strikeouts is testament to his ability. He has lost just one decision all season, although he's only won six, but his filthy stuff looks like it'll keep him in Cy Young discussions all year.
Overall verdict: Harvey is a lone bright spark in an otherwise appalling Mets roster - will he get the run support to take home a Cy Young?
The dark horse - Cliff Lee
Cliff Lee has long been one of the most underrated pitchers in the Major Leagues, and it's tough to understand why. His 2.53 ERA is outstanding, and this year he is finally getting run support, with a strong 9-2 record. Like Wainwright, he is stingy with free passes, allowing just 17 in 110 innings, but he also has good strikeout stuff, sitting down 98 hitters. Lee's name is likely to pop up consistently around the trade deadline, and a move to a contending team may boost his Cy Young prospects. With so many pitchers having break-out seasons, it's easy to forget the consistently great pitchers like Lee, but he's a definite dark horse for the Cy Young award.
Overall verdict: He might not win the award, but Lee continues to put up Cy-calibre numbers.
Notable mentions to Patrick Corbin and Jordan Zimmermann.
So, there you have it, a brief overview of the top Cy Young candidates in each league. For the record, I still believe Yu Darvish will take the AL crown, and see Clayton Kershaw taking the title in the NL.
No comments:
Post a Comment