After remaining competitive for most of 2013 before fading down the stretch, the Royals were wary of making the same mistake this season. And thus far, they've done everything in their power to avoid it. They went on a magical run in late July and early August, winning 15 of 20 and storming from a .500 record on July 23rd, seven games back of the AL Central lead to a 72-56 record on August 23rd and a three game lead in the Central. They also played host to one of the great stories in baseball this season, and now have playoff odds rated at greater than 80% by the ESPN odds tracker. Alex Gordon has been the team's MVP, with his resurgent bat and mind-boggling defense in left field, but the most noticeable contribution has come from the bullpen. Their top three arms - Greg Holland, Wade Davis and Kelvin Herrera - have combined for a 1.21 ERA in 178 innings with 224 strikeouts. For comparison sake, Clayton Kershaw's numbers in the same categories are 1.70/169/202. This is a ridiculously good 'pen.
Major Potential Free Agents
Billy Butler, 1B/DH ($12.5m option, $1m buyout)
Norichika Aoki, OF
James Shields, SP
Wade Davis, RP ($7m team option)
Luke Hochevar, RP
The Royals see a few pretty major departures from the big league club this off-season, and face a couple of tough decisions. The Wil Myers/James Shields trade has been analysed ad finitum, but it's safe to say it hasn't backfired as spectacularly as some experts expected. Shields has been everything KC could have wanted in his two seasons with them, and should earn himself a decent payday. Aoki has been a useful left-handed outfielder who will be tough to replace, and Luke Hochevar was unfortunate to suffer a second torn ACL this pre-season after dominating out of the bullpen in 2013. The Wade Davis decision has been made tricky after his spectacular 2014 campaign, but $7m for an 80 inning reliever isn't good value for money so it would shock me if KC exercised their option. Billy Butler has declined at the plate and never really grown into the power we expected, and with no value in the field I expect KC to let him hit free agency too.
Off-Season Plan
Hitting: The Royals signed young backstop Salvador Perez to a long, cheap deal in the off-season, and based on his performances in the Majors so far they got incredible value. They may need to sign a back-up as Kratz will be arbitration eligible, but with plenty of options on the market that shouldn't be hard to do. Hosmer and Moustakas have struggled with injuries and inconsistency in equal measures, but will presumably be given further chances to reach their potential next season. The middle infield will once again be covered by Infante and Escobar, with Christian Colon likely serving a utility role. Gordon and Cain will cover left and center field, with Dyson serving as an excellent platoon option and pinch runner, but the new right field hole will need filling, preferably with a right-handed bat. Nelson Cruz is an expensive option, whilst someone like Delmon Young represents a cheaper but less skilled choice. With the DH role also open, the Royals could chase an option like Kendrys Morales, Victor Martinez or Corey Hart to help bolster the line-up, but they will have to pay accordingly.
Pitching: The Royals are stacked with quality young arms, both at the Major League level and in the minors. The loss of Shields will leave them without an ace, and though I'd love to see them chase a frontline starter like Shields, Lester or Scherzer in free agency it seems unlikely they would have the salary flexibility to do so. Brandon McCarthy, Ryan Vogelsong or a reunion with Ervin Santana are cheaper right-handed options they could turn to. Jason Vargas is signed for 2015, and will join youngsters Yordano Ventura and Danny Duffy who have impressed mightily so far this year. Jeremy Guthrie isn't a great option, but as the number five he's a solid choice who can chew some innings and throw a quality start when needed. Kyle Zimmer would have been ready to enter the rotation, but having struggled with injury for almost all of this season he'll need further seasoning in the Minors, at least to start 2015. If the Royals decide he's close then they may not make such an expensive dip into free agency, as he has huge number one starter upside. The Royals will need a few new bullpen options to support Holland, but they seem to have a knack for churning out great relief arms so that shouldn't be tough for Dayton Moore and co.
Trade Possibilities
With a fairly loaded minor league system, the Royals do have the option to trade for help. The Reds will likely look to shop a starter like Cueto or Latos, and the Royals could choose to pursue that option rather than free agency although they may have to give up Zimmer or Mondesi. To fill the spare outfield spot they could look into a trade with the Dodgers, whilst Alcides Escobar may be dealt at some point in 2015 to make room for Raul Mondesi who has impressed in the minors.
Overview
The Royals have a roster devoid of superstars but full of players that can help make a championship team. If Alex Gordon continues to perform at his MVP level, Eric Hosmer takes the jump we all expected and the young rotation continues to improve this could be a sleeper team for 2015 and beyond. With a significant amount of money leaving the payroll this winter, it would shock me if the Royals weren't active in the free agent market, and as he showed in the James Shields trade, Dayton Moore isn't afraid to give up young talent in order to win now.
No comments:
Post a Comment