The 2014 Story
In 2013, Cleveland had a superb season, winning 92 games and earning themselves a spot in the one-and-done wildcard game. With few changes made over the Winter, it wasn't outrageous to expect them to challenge in the AL Central again, but with a month left to go, their chances at the post-season are getting thinner and thinner. Five games back of the wildcard, it would take something like a 15-5 streak over the next few weeks to see the Indians sneak past the Tigers, Blue Jays and Yankees and steal that second wildcard berth. The Indians have enjoyed a monster season from Michael Brantley, who has used his sweet line drive swing to great effect slashing .312/.370/.496 with 18 home runs, and has undoubtedly been the MVP of the team. Jason Kipnis has disappointed after a big 2013 campaign, whilst Carlos Santana has warmed up after an awful start at the plate and a failed project at third base. Corey Kluber has come out of nowhere to be a legitimate Cy Young candidate, striking out a batter an inning on his way to a career best 2.58 ERA. However, with the post-season looking unlikely, this may be another lost season for a franchise on the cusp of competing.
Major Potential Free Agents
Mike Aviles, INF ($3.5m option, $250k buyout)
The Indians roster is actually nicely set up, with a very youthful core and most of it's top players (Brantley, Kipnis, Santana) tied up in long team-friendly deals. Mike Aviles is a useful, versatile player who can play pretty much anywhere on the field but catcher, and with the Indians forced to pay him $250k either way, it wouldn't surprise me if they choose to exercise this option, although $3.5m is expensive for a bench player who hasn't been particularly productive this season.
Off-Season Plan
Pitching: The pitching staff has found it's new ace in the form of 28 year old Kluber, who has come into his own this year with a strong, boring two-seam fastball, a 90mph cutter with ridiculous lateral movement and a low 80's curveball that grades out as one of the nastiest pitches in the Majors. Trevor Bauer has impressed in bursts this season, and if he can refine his command he has legitimate number two starter upside. Danny Salazar struggled mightily to start the season after his impressive 2013 cameo, but has come around more of late and should have a rotation spot provided he can pitch well in Spring. T.J. House has pitched well in his time with the big league club this season, and the team may decide he's worth an extended look next season, especially given that the team is lacking in left-handed starters. Carlos Carrasco has been outstanding in the second half, striking out a batter per inning along with a 2.94 ERA, and if his strides forward are legitimate he'll be a great addition for the Indians heading into 2015. The Indians could maybe do with some depth at the position, but I think they have enough talent to cobble together a usable starting five, assuming House remains a part of their plans. A back-end starter like Kevin Correia or Chris Young would be a decent addition to bolster them in case of injury.
The bullpen has been led this season by the impressive 25 year old Cody Allen, who impressed in the set-up role last year but has not performed the same implosion Vinnie Pestano did when forced into 9th inning duty. Allen has the stuff to close out games for this team until 2019, and it seems likely the Indians will give him every chance to do so. Bryan Shaw has served as his primary set-up man this season and his 2.26 ERA in 67 innings of work will certainly play for the Indians. Mark Rzepczynski will likely continue as Cleveland's primary left-hander, and though the bullpen will need a few additions to stretch it out, it won't need an entire revamp.
Hitting: Yan Gomes has taken to everyday catching duty with vigour, proving himself an above-average defensive asset behind the plate, and continuing to mash to the tune of an .826 OPS with 17 dingers. Gomes was tied up to a long term contract last winter that keeps him an Indian until at least 2019, with two more option years looking like good value assuming he can stick behind the plate as his body ages. Carlos Santana got off to a dreadful start this season, hitting .151 in April and then .169 in May. He looked to have turned it around by hitting over .300 in June and July, but has since started to struggled at the plate again. Fortunately, he is one of the league's most patient hitters, so despite a poor .230 batting average, his .360 OBP is borderline elite, and will continue to keep him in the line-up even when he struggles. His move out from behind the plate has diminished some of his value, but he's gone from a poor defensive catcher to an above average defensive first baseman, which will allow him to be productive at that position despite a peculiar offensive profile.
Kipnis has struggled, but it's tough to see this continuing, and 2015 could be the season he puts it all together and has an MVP campaign. Lonnie Chisenhall had a two week stretch earlier this season where he was almost Bondsian, and though he hasn't kept that up all year, his .821 OPS is beyond the club's wildest dreams entering the season, and though his defensive value is questionable at best, it would surprise me if he isn't the starting third baseman on opening day. The vacant hole at shortstop appears to have arrived at the perfect time for top prospect Francisco Lindor's arrival. Lindor should be an above average player from the moment he steps on the field thanks to his outstanding defense, and his solid line drive swing and approach at the plate suggests he could become a great top of the order hitting for the Indians as soon as 2016. This Indians infield has quietly morphed into one of the best in the game.
In the outfield, Michael Bourn has put up almost identical numbers to his disappointing 2013 campaign as injuries have plagued him again and he has lost a lot of the speed that provided him with his value on the bases and in the field. The Indians have him locked up for two more seasons, so will have to roll him out there in 2015, but they will be hoping he can somehow return to the 6 win player he proved to be in 2012. Michael Brantley's great strides at the plate all seem to be legit, and he'll enter the season as the lynchpin of the Indians line-up with his sweet left-handed swing. The Indians do have a hole to fill in right field however, and with a largely left-handed line-up, a decent right handed bopper would fit the bill nicely. Nelson Cruz represents an expensive but high-upside option, whilst Torii Hunter or Josh Willingham would likely come cheaper but with less offensive profile. The designated hitter is likely to be rotated between the Indians surplus infielders, like recent acquisition Zach Walters and 21 year old second-baseman Jose Ramirez. Victor Martinez would be an enticing option to pursue in free agency however, and would make their line-up one of the more dangerous in the American League
Trade Possibilities
The Indians have a surplus of quality infielders, and could probably look to deal some of that talent (Walters, Ramirez and Aguilar) for a decent right-handed slugger, especially one that could man an outfield corner. Scott Van Slyke of the Dodgers would be a great trade target to be part of a platoon as a righty bat that destroys left-handers. The Dodgers surplus of outfielders means the Indians would probably just have to give up one of their fringy infielders to secure his services. The Indians farm system isn't particularly stacked, especially if they promote Lindor, so acquiring top talent won't be easy, and with their limited payroll the Indians can't afford to take on too much salary.
Overview
The Indians have a balanced and youthful roster, and assuming some of their young players take steps forward next season, it's not hard to imagine them competing in the AL Central once again. Health permitting, there aren't a whole lot of moves the Indians can really make, although a decent outfielder should be their priority entering the winter. If Cleveland can make a couple of shrewd moves, this team is going to generate a lot of buzz entering 2015.
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