The perennial AL Central favourites, the Tigers entered the season as World Series favourites in some peoples eyes, and their mid-season acquisition of David Price seemed to confirm they were the team to beat in the American League. However, things haven't quite gone entirely to plan. The KC Royals have spoiled the party since late July and with just 19 games left in the regular season, they are currently set to miss out on the play-offs altogether. KC has a two game lead in the division, although with a massive series starting today at Comerica that could all change very quickly. Meanwhile, the AL West currently has two wildcard teams in the A's and M's, so the Tigers are no surefire play-off team. Miguel Cabrera has been unable to replicate his MVP form, while Justin Verlander has lost the stuff that made him a top-of-the-rotation starter. Victor Martinez and Max Scherzer are both having monster years, but with both set to hit free agency, it could be a matter of now or never for this group of Tigers.
Major Potential Free Agents
Alex Avila, C
Torii Hunter, OF
Victor Martinez, 1B/DH
Max Scherzer, SP
There are a few major losses for the Tigers to deal with this Winter, with the most notable being AL Cy Young winner Max Scherzer who has followed up his tremendous 2013 performance with a superb 2014 campaign. He should earn himself a huge payday in free agency, and with $168m already guaranteed to Verlander through 2019, it seems unlikely the Tigers will have the resources to retain his services. I'm not really sure what the status of Alex Avila's contract is, as his vesting option for 2015 won't be met but the Tigers may be able to work out a deal as they did before the 2014 season at a decent discount. Both Hunter and Martinez are old players who have lost most of their value in the field, but Martinez has been one of the AL's best hitters this season, and his departure will leave a big void in the Detroit line-up.
Off-Season Plan
Hitting: If the Tigers do indeed allow Avila to walk, that will leave them a hole at catcher. 24 year old James McCann has had two straight good seasons at AA and AAA and is refined enough behind the plate to be given a chance in an everyday role next season, although the Tigers may choose to pursue the likes of David Ross or Geovany Soto as at least an insurance option. Cabrera and Kinsler are both locked up long term, while 2015 will see the return of Jose Iglesias who impressed with his magic glovework in 2013 and will presumably be given a chance once again to start everyday. In the outfield is where the Tigers will need to improve. With Austin Jackson departing via trade and Torii Hunter hitting free agency, the Tigers are more grateful than ever to have profited from the breakout of J.D. Martinez who has had a massive year with the Tigers, slashing .306/.351/.543 and looks like a steal for Detroit. Rajai Davis is under contract for 2015 but would ideally be used in a platoon, whilst the Tigers still need an everyday center fielder and DH.
An intriguing option for the Tigers would be Colby Rasmus, who has never managed to live up to his lofty expectations as a prospect. After a breakout 2013, Rasmus has taken a huge step back this season, striking out in nearly a third of his plate appearances and not even playing great defense in the outfield. B.J. Upton serves as an eerily similar comparison that will scare teams off, but if the Tigers can sign him to a 3 year deal without ridiculous money he's worth a gamble, with 5 WAR upside and platoon with Davis downside. Michael Cuddyer could be a nice option for the Tigers, as he can play right field and first base, and would give them a hitter with similar contact abilities to Torii Hunter. The likes of Jason Kubel, Jonny Gomes and Kendrys Morales all serve as DH options on the market who could play some games in the field too.
Pitching: The Tigers have five top quality starters in their rotation, and arguably they have the worst of the four locked up to the most expensive deal. Verlander will continue in their rotation, hopefully with some improved form as it is presumed he is battling some kind of injury this year. David Price has one more year of arbitration left and will spend it in Detroit unless the Tigers are out of the running by July and choose to deal him. Max Scherzer will depart and Drew Smyly has already moved to Tampa Bay, leaving the Tigers looking a bit more vulnerable for the future than they did to start the season, but if Anibal Sanchez can return to full strength from injury and Rick Porcello continues to improve, there will only be one spot up for grabs in 2015. Robbie Ray has been disappointing between AAA and the Majors so far this season, but Dave Dombrowski gave up Doug Fister to acquire him, so he will presumably be given another next shot in 2015. Alternatively, Kyle Lobstein has impressed in his short stint at the back end of the season. It's unlikely the Tigers will make a big splash in free agency, with extending Price probably a preferred option, but the likes of James Shields and Jon Lester would vault them into the best rotation in baseball conversations should they wish to go in that direction.
The bullpen is seemingly a weakness every season for Detroit, in stark contrast to the incredible success Kansas City has enjoyed. Joe Nathan is under contract for 2015, but hasn't been at his sharpest this season with a 5.04 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. Joba Chamberlain has been strong for Detroit this season but will hit free agency, while Phil Coke will also depart having served as the teams primary left hander for the past two years. The Tigers will have to make a few dips into free agency to bolster the 'pen, and the likes of David Robertson or Casey Janssen would be great additions, albeit at a hefty price. Luke Gregerson and Burke Badenhop represent alternative solutions that may come at a lower price, but I will be shocked if the Tigers don't acquire at least one top-end reliever through free agency.
Trade Possibilities
As he proved last winter by dealing Fielder and Fister, Dave Dombrowski isn't scared of pulling the trigger on big trades, but trying to predict them is an almost impossible task. With the fourth largest payroll in the Majors, there isn't a whole lot of room for salary flexibility, although with $26m leaving the team in the form of Victor Martinez and Torii Hunter, he could yet make a splash in free agency or via trade. The farm system has been somewhat ravaged by a series of trades and free agent signings, and looks set to compete for bottom spot in most team rankings, so Dombrowski doesn't have a lot of young talent to dangle in front of other teams. If they are willing to take on more money then either Matt Kemp or Andre Ethier could be acquired from the Dodgers without giving up much talent, but it's tough to imagine the Tigers would want to cripple the payroll with another large contract.
Overview
The Tigers have one of the most talented rosters in the Majors, and the departures of some key players this Winter isn't likely to change that fact. Dombrowski will be busy in free agency, and another blockbuster trade is never out of the question. However, with a lot of money locked up in older players, the window for the Tigers may be getting smaller, so they will have to be wary of keeping half an eye on the future too, to avoid finding themselves in a similar position to the Phillies three or four years down the line.
No comments:
Post a Comment