There are few honours greater in baseball than being put in the hall of fame. There are 297 members of the hall of fame, ranging from imperious sluggers to nimble base-stealers to inspirational managers to game-changing umpires. In recent seasons, the hall of fame has become slightly farcical, embroiled in the steroid argument that seems destined to define a generation. It's hard to predict who will end up in the hall of fame when Barry Bonds is unable to make the grade, but the hall continues to serve as the ultimate benchmark of a successful career.
So, on to the player at question. David Ortiz has become the face of the Boston Red Sox franchise over the past few seasons, with his heroic post-season antics combining with his charismatic off-field persona to make a lovable veteran. At the age of 37, there is no doubt that Big Papi is in his twilight years, but as he is proving so far in 2013, he has plenty of production left in the tank with a .333 average and four homers. When his career is finally over, how will retrospect treat him? He's been an excellent player - an exceptional one at times - who has made the designated hitter position his own, but is he hall-of-fame worthy?
The Arguments For
Even the most staunch Yankee fan will concede that Ortiz can hit. He can flat out rake. He has a career batting average of .285 and a healthy career OBP of .380. Of course, slugging is the main part of his game, and a .548 slugging percentage and 405 career homers are testament to that. The 405 home runs would place him exactly 50th amongst hall of fame (and active) players, though you'd like to think another 30-60 should be feasible if has another two seasons left in him. Ortiz would rank 26th amongst hall of fame/active players, making him a worthy entrant on the basis of his bat.
Then of course, you have his post-season play. In 2003 he was the Red Sox best slugger in the post-season, as he almost guided them past the Yankees in an epic ALCS. In 2004, he was successful in doing so, taking the Red Sox to their first championship in 86 years on the back of his .409 average and five homers. His walk-off home run won the ALDS for the Red Sox, another walk off blast in game four and finally a walk-off single in game five of the incredible ALCS series, again against the Yankees. In the 2007 post-season he was once again instrumental as part of the Red Sox championship run. There is a reason he has been pronounced 'the greatest clutch hitter in Red Sox history'.
Finally, you have his name and image. Whilst David Ortiz's career stats speak for themselves, Big Papi has made himself into the face of the Red Sox franchise and has become a household name in baseball. He has likely become the most famous DH to play the game, and he is an enormously popular player amongst fans. As I'll discuss later, the PED link from earlier in his career will do him no favours, but he has done an excellent job of shaking off this image and becoming an ambassador for the game of baseball.
The Arguments Against
Although Papi's offensive stats may be comparably to the Hall of Fame, his WAR certainly is not. His career mark of 40.3 WAR would leave him 304th in history, barely above Rafael Furcal. Of course, the main reason for this is the total lack of defense to his game, as his entire career has been restricted to the designated hitter role. On bat alone, Ortiz may be a hall of fame candidate, but the fact that he's not even serviceable enough to play first base for a major league team tells us everything we need to know about his defense. And that's before we get started on his base-running value.
And being the DH doesn't just hold back his WAR and defensive metrics. There is something of a DH stigma amongst hall of fame voters, who have tended to ignore hit-only players. Edgar Martinez, a designated hitter who arguably boasts better offensive stats than David Ortiz is yet to get into the hall of fame, and was able to achieve just 36.5% of the vote in 2012 balloting. It's hard to imagine the voters swaying so much in favour of Ortiz after setting a precedent with Martinez (although voting with their brains is perhaps something the hall of fame voters choose not to do).
Finally, Big Papi's hall of fame case will be hindered by the steroid allegations levied at him earlier in his career. The New York Times revealed in 2009 that Ortiz had failed a drug test in 2003 along with roughly 100 other Major League players. The legitimacy of this claim has since been thrown into doubt, and Ortiz has strongly denied the allegations, but any link to PED's has generally been met with a fairly staunch policy by hall of fame voters (see Bonds, Barry among others). It's possible Ortiz has done enough since these allegations to repair his image, but the mere link will cause some to leave Ortiz off their ballot entirely.
So, what does he need to do?
The way I see it, Ortiz does not get into the hall of fame if he retires today. If he can push up towards and maybe even past 500 career home runs it will be a major step in the right direction, and another excellent post-season or two would do no harm to his case. His bat is still very productive, even if his body is breaking down, so if he can stay on the field he could yet have a few big seasons left in him. Continuing to mould his image as the face of the Red Sox franchise will help too, and it's certainly possible that in five years time we are talking about an almost certain hall of fame candidate.
However, what is really needed is a change in the mindset of hall of fame voters. For as long as the stigma is attached to the designated hitter position and there is a total reluctance to go near players with links to PEDs, Ortiz does not stand a chance. The 2012 voting results highlighted what a farce the hall has become, and it is going to take a change of mindset before players like Ortiz are even considered. His case will be an interesting one to watch when the time comes, but for now we can enjoy watching him tear the leather off the ball in the Red Sox jersey for a few more seasons.
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