Justin Upton to the Braves

Well, it finally happened. Arizona had been touting their fine out-fielder for all of the off-season if not longer, and after interest from the Rangers and Mariners, the Atlanta Braves decided they quite liked creating the finest out-field in baseball and in the process brought both Upton brothers under one roof. The simple maths of the trade is that the Diamondbacks have given up Justin Upton and Chris Johnson for Martin Prado, Randall Delgado and three minor-leaguers - Zeke Spruill, Nick Ahmed and Brandon Drury. But who won the trade?

The Background

Well, first of all it is impossible to say who 'won' this trade at this moment in time, because none of the aforementioned players have swung a bat since the trade. The question for those of you who were not keeping up with the rumours is quite likely - why on earth were the Diamondbacks looking to trade Upton? This is a 25 year old slugger who is widely viewed as one of the best young players in Major League baseball. In 2009 as a 22 year old, Upton hit .300 with 26 homers and 20 steals, and after a down 2010 he truly began to shine in 2011 as he hit 31 homers and stole 21 bases to go along with a .289 average. Although 2012 was a poor year with the bat, he was hampered by a thumb injury all season, which generally saps hitters of their power. He plays excellent defense in the out-field, and as I mentioned, he's just 25 years old, meaning his best years should be ahead of him.

However, he has always been plagued with 'make-up' and 'personality' issues. Expected to be the future leader of the D-Backs clubhouse, Upton has (like his brother) faced issues with attitude, and it has been obvious for some time that Kevin Towers (the Arizona GM) and perhaps Kirk Gibson were not happy with these issues. Whether this combined with an inability to truly 'gel' with the hitting coaches, it has become apparent that Upton was given the cold shoulder by the D-Backs and a trade seemed like the only plausible solution.

Obviously, this isn't a great situation for the D-Backs to be in. If other teams know you want to get rid of a player, that tends to reduce his trade value. The D-Backs appeared to have cemented an excellent deal with the Mariners where they were getting hold of two blue-chip prospects, but the deal fell through as the Mariners were on Upton's no-trade list. Enter the Braves, who took advantage of the low asking price to snap up the younger Upton and propel themselves into possible World Series contention...

The Players

We've already discussed Justin Upton, and the clear second player in this deal is Martin Prado. One of the most loved players in the Braves clubhouse, he is considered to be a fantastic guy to have in the clubhouse, and has the skills to back it up with production. His career average of .295 shows off his best skill, which is the ability to get bat on ball. He also has decent power, with more than 10 home runs in each of his past 4 seasons and a new-found stealing ability by blasting past his career high of 5 steals with a 17-steal 2012 season. He also plays good defense at either left-field or third-base, the latter of which fills a major void in the D-Backs team. He was without a doubt the toughest player to let go for the Braves, and after a 5.4 WAR in 2012, it could easily be argued that his short-term value is greater than that of Upton.

The top prospect in the deal is right-hand pitcher Randall Delgado who got his first taste of regular big league baseball last season, but not a particularly successful one - he went 4-9 with a 4.37 ERA. He still has a good deal of potential, striking out 9.6 batters per nine whilst in the minor leagues, although he's likely not going to be the ace of any rotation. The other three prospects are all fairly poor and have little chance of ever being impact big-league players. Chris Johnson may make up half of a plateau at third base for the Braves, with Juan Francisco likely to play the games where a RHP is on the mound.

Who won?

I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest that Upton and Prado will provide fairly similar value this season, although there is no doubt that Upton has the potential to rip off an MVP calibre season. However, where the value differs is in the future - Prado is set to become a free agent after the 2013 season, so unless the D-Backs can arrange a long-term deal he could play just a single season for Arizona. On the other hand, Upton will be a Brave until 2016 at the earliest. Randall Delgado helps make up for this gap a little with his potential for being a strong middle-of-the-rotation starter, but he is no surefire. Overall, I think Atlanta win this trade. Upton is yet to fulfil his potential, and when/if he does, it's going to be an MVP-calibre season. He certainly has the ability to hit .300 with 35 homers and 25 steals, and perhaps the move to a new club and joining his brother will invigorate him.

What does it mean for everyone else?

Well, there are two players that this has an obvious effect on. The first is free agent Michael Bourn, for whom the number of competing teams with a gap in center-field is diminishing. The Rangers look like the most likely destination for him now. The second is young power-hitting right-fielder Giancarlo Stanton, who has also been touted by the Marlins as they completely revamp their squad. Few players in the game are as valuable as Stanton, and as David Schoenfield pointed out in a 'Sweetspot' post, a player of his calibre has never been traded in Major League baseball. Not many players in baseball history have had Stanton's incredible power at the tender age of 23. This Upton trade sets the market price for someone like Stanton, though I believe if he is going to be traded it would take at least 3 or 4 blue-chip prospects, and few teams have those kind of players.


On a lighter note, not long til pitchers and catchers report now! It's been a long, depressing off-season but Spring is around the corner, and with it we can stop speculating about impossible trades and start talking about everyday action.