Thursday 31 January 2013

Blind Resumés

Well we're inching ever closer to opening day, and with baseball drawing closer I decided to try something I've not done before on this blog: blind resumés. For those of you unfamiliar with the concept, I will find two players and stat-lines that are perhaps un-befitting of their traditional value or view. Hopefully it'll be a good bit of fun...

All the stats I give are from the 2012 season.

Blind Resumé 1

Player 1: 195.2 IP, 152 K's, 2.94 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 4.4 WAR
Player 2:  188.2 IP, 142 K's, 2.81 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 3.7 WAR

Player 1 has around an extra start worth of IP and subsequently a few more K's. The ERA's are pretty comparable, although Player 2 takes the edge in WHIP. WAR actually sees Player 1 come out on top. Any idea who they are?

How about if I give you their records? 

Player 1 went 12-8 whilst Player 2 went 20-5. Any clue now?

Well, Player 1 is Jordan Zimmermann of the Washington Nationals. Player 2 is Jered Weaver of the Los Angeles Angels who came third in Cy-Young voting. Zimmermann garnered 0 votes. Whilst Jered Weaver did have a better season based on stat-lines (particularly in the 'W' category), Zimmermann was extremely comparable in 2012, and in fact had a better WAR. Of course, if you were asked which was the better pitcher, you'd be considered a fool if you went against Weaver...

Blind Resumé 2

Player 1: 177.1 IP, 175 K's, 3.81 ERA, 1.35 WHIP 1.2 WAR
Player 2:  204 IP, 204 K's, 3.66 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 2.7 WAR

Player 2 has a good chunk more innings pitched, but their strikeout rates are almost identical. Player 2 has the edge in ERA, WHIP and WAR but not by a great distance. Clearly the second player is better, but I don't think it's a stretch to compare the two.

Player 1 is Rays rookie Matt Moore. Player 2 is Brewers ace Yovani Gallardo. Moore was widely considered to have had a disappointing first full season in the rotation, whilst Gallardo had another solid year atop the Brewers rotation. Whilst Moore's stats aren't outstanding, if he can reduce the number of walks issued, then he could cut the WHIP by 0.2 and the ERA by 0.5, which would vault him into the elite range of pitchers.

Blind Resumé 3

Player 1: .234 avg, 9 homers, 27 RBI, 31 runs, 11 steals.
Player 2: .300 avg, 18 homers, 64 RBI, 49 runs, 12 steals.

No contest here. Player 2 crushes Player 1 in every department, hitting for a better average, with more power, production and even speed. Oh, for the record, Player 1 is an all-star who is widely considered one of the best power/speed hitters in the Majors. Player 2 has a career average of .273 and has never made the all-star team.

Both these stat lines are from 2012, but they are both taken from the player's road splits. Player 1 is Carlos Gonzalez. Whilst he absolutely tore the leather off the ball at hitter-friendly Coors, he struggled to adapt on the road. Player 2 is Chase Headley. His break-out 2012 was mostly compiled away from cavernous Petco Park, and his road stats brink on the ridiculous. It's impossible to extrapolate 250 at-bats into an entire season, but were Headley even to play in a 'neutral' venue, he could have put up some memorable stats.

Blind Resumé 4

Player 1: .257 avg, 24 homers, 92 RBI, 79 runs, 21 steals
Player 2: .292 avg, 25 homers, 73 RBI, 72 runs, 21 steals

These players have astonishingly similar numbers in counting categories. Whilst Player 1 has the advantage in runs and RBI, these stats are generally out of the control of the hitter (the strength of the line-up around you usually dictates these better than player ability). They both hit around 25 homers and stole 21 bases. Where Player 2 has the huge advantage is in the average department, where his .292 average blows the measly .257 of his competitor out of the water. Player 2 is the better hitter.

One of these players is a three-time all-star and came second in MVP voting a few years back. The other made his first all-star game this season. Of course, Player 1 is the aforementioned three-time all-star and Player 2 is the newcomer. Player 1 is the inconsistent but highly-touted Hanley Ramirez, and Player 2 is the break-out candidate Ian Desmond.


So, there you go. A few interesting comparisons for you to have a look at (I hope), certainly eye-opening for me. I'll try and produce a few more of these as we get closer to opening day.

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