First up, the work-horses of a baseball team: the starting pitchers
1. Justin Verlander
2. Clayton Kershaw
3. Stephen Strasburg
4. Felix Hernandez
5. David Price
6. Matt Cain
7. Cliff Lee
8. Cole Hamels
9. Zack Greinke
10. Jered Weaver
A formidable top 10. Any of these guys will serve as an excellent ace of both your fantasy rotation and their respective team's rotation. I've gone with Verlander as number 1 overall because of his insane consistency. He's thrown over 200 innings in each of the past 6 seasons and has just become better and better through those seasons. This years stats were extremely comparable to his 2011 MVP performance, and there is no better bet in baseball for 250 strikeouts, 15 wins, an ERA under 3 and WHIP under 1.1. Draft him with absolute confidence. King Felix, Kershaw and an innings-cap free Strasburg should all be fantastic in 2012, and David Price will have no problem backing up his Cy-Young winning season with another dominant year atop the Tampa Bay rotation.
Matt Cain rightly earns his spot at 6th with a downright dominant year for San Francisco, the ERA and WHIP were minuscule and the increasing strikeouts make him a legitimate fantasy number 1. Cliff Lee had a freakish year in the 'win' column, but otherwise his performances were as good as they always are. Greinke, Hamels and Weaver should continue to be dominant aces for their respective teams, although I do think they are a drop-off in consistency from the top 7.
11. Johnny Cueto
12. Madison Bumgarner
13. R.A. Dickey
14. C.C. Sabathia
15. Yu Darvish
16. Chris Sale
17. Kris Medlen
18. Matt Moore
19. Max Scherzer
20. Adam Wainwright
Cueto had a dominant 2012 season, but pitching in a horrible home park pushes him outside my top 10. Young southpaw Madison Bumgarner had another excellent season for San Francisco, and at the age of just 23 he's still improving. Dickey is likely to regress a little, but as a knuckle-ball pitcher he is as immune to the effects of age as anyone, so don't be scared that last year was a fluke. Sabathia will continue to be a workhorse for the Yankees whilst Matt Moore should put together a fine campaign for Tampa Bay as strike-outs will come easily but he needs to get better at getting ahead in the count - the astronomic .389 BAA on a 0-0 count is cause for concern.
Darvish, Sale and Medlen are all pitchers I expect to push on from excellent 2012 seasons. Darvish and Sale have age and astonishing strikeout rates on their side, whilst Medlen's pinpoint accuracy is arguably the best in the major leagues. Scherzer could be a valuable sleeper in many leagues this year, his post all-star stats were on a par with rotation-mate Verlander, and it was only a horrific April performance that ruined his overall stats. He'll once again challenge for the Major League high in strikeouts.
21. Mat Latos
22. James Shields
23. Yovani Gallardo
24. Jordan Zimmermann
25. Roy Halladay
26. Jake Peavy
27. Aroldis Chapman
28. Hiroki Kuroda
29. Doug Fister
30. Brett Anderson
Latos should find a bit more consistency in the hitter-friendly confines of GABP this season, although his large spike in home runs last season from 16 to 25 is something owners will have to live with as a product of the stadium. Shields will be productive wherever he is playing, whilst Gallardo should be a consistent strikeout producer, even if you do have to live with the occasional shocking outing. Jordan Zimmermann had a quietly excellent season for the Nationals last season meaning he could go unnoticed in drafts. The strike-outs aren't elite, but his astonishing tendency to get out of trouble (.308 batting average against with none on/none out but .165 with men on and 2 outs or .105 with a man on 3rd and less than 2 outs) is a key asset. Finally Roy Halladay struggled at the back end of last season, and his diminished velocity is cause for concern.
I expect Peavy to regress after a sensational 2012 season, but he still obviously holds value. Chapman would be a bit of an enigma if he joins the rotation as expected, but you can be sure he'll strike-out a ton. I think they'll limit his innings if he does start, but if last year is anything to go by then he could have extraordinary numbers. Kuroda and Fister were both quietly excellent in 2012, and could be steals in the draft whilst others go after big name players. Brett Anderson showed glimpses of brilliance after returning from injury, and whilst the injury and lack of strikeouts are cause for concern, his immaculate control should mean cold slumps are a rarity.
31. Brandon Morrow
32. Wade Miley
33. Josh Johnson
34. Ian Kennedy
35. Ryan Vogelsong
36. Dan Haren
37. Anibal Sanchez
38. Derek Holland
39. Jeremy Hellickson
40. Jon Lester
I'm all in on Brandon Morrow next season. After struggles with injury in his first few seasons, then a struggle with consistency, Morrow was putting it all together last year until an injury once again plagued him and kept him out for half the year. The strikeouts are a given with Morrow, and I think his control is greatly increased meaning the ERA should stay at a reasonable level. Miley had a superb season, but I don't expect him to repeat and Josh Johnson should find a modicum of consistency with the Blue Jays. Vogelsong continues to be a revelation in fantasy, with his ERA remaining one of the best in the Major Leagues.
Haren should bounce back with the Nationals this year, although if you're expecting a repeat of 2011 you may be disappointed. Sanchez had an excellent stretch with the Tigers, but he is still erratic and as such will struggle with some poor performances that dampen the brilliance of others. Holland and Hellickson are both talented young pitchers who should win as many games as they lose and help you out with ERA and WHIP. Hellickson is a bit of a gamble, because he has no strikeouts to fall back on if hitters start picking the change-up. Lester can't do much worse than last season, although his seemingly nonchalant attitude to his poor performances last season leave a lot to be desired.
41. Jarrod Parker
42. C.J. Wilson
43. Jonathon Niese
44. Matt Harrison
45. Tim Lincecum
46. Edwin Jackson
47. Jeff Samardzija
48. Trevor Cahill
49. Tommy Hanson
50. James McDonald
Parker was superb despite being given the pressure of the no.1 spot in a rookie-filled Oakland rotation, and he should be able to carry that success into 2013. C.J. Wilson had a season to forget in 2012, and whilst I don't think the inconsistency problems will be easy to shake off he could be a late-round sleeper. Matt Harrison's upside is limited due to the lack of strikeouts, but he continues to be extremely efficient for the Rangers and is a good late pick. Lincecum continues to be someone I'd stay away from despite his post-season success from the bullpen. He just isn't the same pitcher as he was three years ago, and two seasons of woeful performances have persuaded me he is nothing more than a gamble this year.
Jackson and Samardzija are both heavy on strikeouts but have little consistency, and whilst they may be worth a gamble they are far from reliable. Cahill and Hanson should have solid seasons, but as always they are liable to a bad performance or two. James McDonald had a disastrous second half, but makes my list by virtue of his pre all-star break performances - if he can reconjure some of that magic he could yet be fantasy relevant.
And with a long list of starters out of the way, we can move on to relievers
1. Craig Kimbrel
2. Aroldis Chapman
3. Jonathan Papelbon
4. Fernando Rodney
5. Sergio Romo
6. Rafael Soriano
7. Joel Hanrahan
8. Greg Holland
9. Huston Street
10. Casey Janssen
11. Addison Reed
12. Jason Grilli
13. Brandon League
14. Mariano Rivera
15. Ryan Madson
16. Jason Motte
17. J.J. Putz
18. Brian Wilson
19. John Axford
20. Carlos Marmol
Craig Kimbrel is the clear number 1, but after his massive 2012 campaign and recent reinstatement in the closer role, Chapman has just as much upside. Papelbon earns number 3 on my chart because of his history, but last season was a big disappointment for him. Fernando Rodney will regress but still be a shutdown closer in my opinion. Sergio Romo has the potential to be an absolute stud with that deadly slider, although the rumours about an innings limit are slightly worrying.
Rafael Soriano will get plenty of opportunities in Washington, although he has two quality relievers breathing down his neck. Joel Hanrahan has struggled with command in recent seasons, but should have a reasonably tight grip on the job in Boston. Greg Holland proved he has the stuff and the mettle to be an efficient 9th inning man for the Royals whilst Huston Street looks dominant every time he avoids the DL - maybe this year he avoids it completely. Casey Janssen was superb as the fill-in closer last year, and seems to have the job in front of Sergio Santos.
Addison Reed should improve with experience, and Jason Grilli will finally get a chance at the ninth inning after making himself a dominant set-up man. Brandon League is a good reliever, but one slip-up may see him replaced by the much more effective Kenley Jansen. Rivera is a high risk pick after the injury this year, but I would love to see him back on the mound baffling hitters in what will likely be his final season. The new Angel Ryan Madson closes out the top 15, although with Ernesto Frieri waiting in the wings his leash may be extremely short in Anaheim.
Motte may have ranked in the top five on this list were it not for a pre-season injury that has him possibly thinking about season-ending surgery. Putz always seems one blown save away from losing his job before pulling it all back together, although he undoubtedly has the stuff to get a lot of strikeouts. Wilson needs to find a job before becoming fantasy relevant again, and after a full season with no work he is a definite risk. One year removed from being one of the top closers in baseball, Axford was simply horrible this year as he blew save after save for the Brewers. His stuff suggests he should turn that around. Marmol closes out my list because he currently has the job in Chicago, but he may be traded to a team with a better closer or dropped in favour of Fujikawa at any moment.
So, there you have it. Looking back I may have got some of the placements wrong, but hopefully you get an idea of which kind of guys I like more than usual and which I would stay well away from. Some similar articles to come in the new year I hope, and if anything big happens from a free agent or trade standpoint then I'll be sure to post my opinions. As always, comments are welcome!
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