I've tried hard not to write any blog posts on fantasy, because I consider it a bit cheap and a bit easy. But then I remember that there are people who's jobs are based on fantasy sports - people I respect and have a lot of time for like Matthew Berry and Eric Karabell. So, I figured that nothing would block out the bitter cold from outside more than compiling a few lists. At each position I'll list the top 10 players and then briefly explain why they are in that order, and go through some notable inclusions or exemptions.
So, first off the board is catcher, arguably the most demanding position in all of sport
1. Buster Posey
2. Carlos Santana
3. Yadier Molina
4. Joe Mauer
5. Matt Wieters
6. Miguel Montero
7. Mike Napoli
8. Salvador Perez
9. Wilin Rosario
10. Jesus Montero
No surprises at number one, as Buster Posey will be a popular draft-day target in fantasy leagues coming off the back of an incredible MVP season. After that, I should point out, there is a significant drop-off. I simply don't feel confident at catcher this season, and not only because the position is so fragile in terms of injuries. Any between 2 and arguably 7 could warrant consideration to be the second catcher off the board. Santana struggled through the first half of 2012, before finishing off the season on a high. Molina was superb, and it's only by virtue of the fact defensive stats are not applicable to fantasy baseball that he is not higher. I'm not a big Joe Mauer fan, because his power is non-existent and he looks like he'll be playing in a weak Minnesota line-up. He should still be a good bet for a .300 average and 80 RBI/runs but temper any 2010 repeat expectations.
Napoli struggled this year, but is still an excellent bet for 20 homers with the Green Monster to aim for. I rate Salvador Perez extremely highly. He had a stonking 88.7% contact rate which means a high average is extremely sustainable and he has hit well over .300 in every year of his minor league career. He is well built so I think the power will come, and a season at the heart of an improving Royals line-up could provide superb mid-round value. Wilin Rosario had a big 2012 for the Rockies, cranking a team rookie record 28 home runs. He's a big boy, and the power is legit, but I'm not as keen on him as some might be. Unlike Perez, he has an extremely high strikeout rate, and if teams start feeding him more breaking pitches the average might plummet. He's still got insane power potential though, so if you need home runs from your back-stop look no further. Montero struggled a bit in 2012 with a new team, but with the walls coming in at Safeco and him being given more time to accommodate to major league pitching I expect a solid season from the young hitter.
First base is a position usually associated with great depth, but that simply isn't the case this year...
1. Joey Votto
2. Prince Fielder
3. Albert Pujols
4. Edwin Encarnacion
5. Billy Butler
6. Adrian Gonzalez
7. Allen Craig
8. Freddie Freeman
9. Paul Goldschmidt
10. Eric Hosmer
Typically a position with superb depth, first base is a weak position in 2013, particularly if you want consistency. The top three are all interchangeable in my opinion, I expect Votto will continue to be dominant, hitting for a high average, drawing walks and knocking out homers at will. Whilst I expect Fielder's power to increase next season, I don't think the .300 average is particularly sustainable although the 30 homers and 100 RBI are exactly what you want from a first baseman. Pujols should put up his usual stat line, but a regression in average seems likely and 30 home runs rather than 40 is what to expect. After the first three there is a significant drop-off in my opinion, and I would place Buster Posey at 4th if I was including catchers with 1B eligibility. Encarnacion's power is legitimate, although a slight regression is probably in order particularly in batting average. A year in that suddenly strong Blue Jays line-up will do no harm though. Butler proved last year that he can hit balls over the fence as well as into them - he might be easier to get than most on this list too due to being criminally underrated because of his DHing in my opinion.
Adrian Gonzalez continues to be an enigma - he continues to hit solidly for .300 every season and the power surges he sometimes has only serves to make the dry streaks more maddening. The Dodgers line-up looks stronger than ever next season, so I expect him to put up solid numbers. Freeman, Goldschmidt and Craig are all guys who have significant upside - Craig crushed the ball when healthy last year, Goldschmidt is primed for a breakout (and he has speed) and Freeman will be playing in a stronger line-up than ever. Hosmer can be placed with guys like Ike Davis, Anthony Rizzo and Adam LaRoche in a group of high-risk, high-reward players. I like Hosmer to bounce back in a big way this year, so he makes my top 10.
And now moving on to the traditionally weak second base
1. Robinson Cano
2. Ian Kinsler
3. Dustin Pedroia
4. Brandon Phillips
5. Aaron Hill
6. Ben Zobrist
7. Jason Kipnis
8. Jose Altuve
9. Rickie Weeks
10. Chase Utley
Again, there is a clear division at this position. Robinson Cano is number 1 here - and it's not even close. Despite getting off to a poor start, Cano soon picked up and once again became the most consistent second base in the Major Leagues - oh and did I mention he's missed just 12 games over the last 6 seasons combined. Preference really determines who you pick next. Although Kinsler struggled in 2012 I've gone for him because of his power/speed potential. The poor average appears to be something you'll have to live with. Pedroia struggled with injuries a bit this year, but the average is just so reliable around .300 and his 20 homer/20 steal potential never hurts. After that it's a bit of a gamble. Phillips was fantastic for the Reds when Votto went down injured and he provided help in every fantasy category meaning he garners 4th spot. Aaron Hill was actually 2nd in fantasy points at 2B this year, and the only reason he isn't higher is because this is the first time power and average have combined for him.
Zobrist is another reliable fantasy performer, although he's been unable to match his breakout 2009. He won't hit more than 20 homers, steal more than 20 bases or hit for an average higher than .300. But at the same time there is no surer bet in baseball for 15 homers, 15 steals and a .280 average and his positional eligibility makes him attractive too. Kipnis is someone I'd avoid if possible. He provides great stats in the stolen base department, but hit just .257 with 3 homers combined in July, August and September. Altuve has great speed, but he's literally the only major league quality hitter in that line-up. Weeks has significant bounce back potential but that average could be an absolute killer. Utley might be primed for one more big season as the Phillies look to defy the age barrier.
So, on to another position of typical scarcity: shortstop
1. Troy Tulowitzki
2. Jose Reyes
3. Hanley Ramirez
4. Starlin Castro
5. Ian Desmond
6. Elvis Andrus
7. Asdrubal Cabrera
8. Alcides Escobar
9. Jimmy Rollins
10. Derek Jeter
Tulowitzki only played 47 games this year and he didn't set the world alight in the limited time he had. I know, this is a big risk, but in my opinion it is a risk well worth taking. I still wouldn't take Tulowitzki until the second round, but I think he could be underrated because of this year. Across the three seasons before his low in average was .297 and in home runs was 27. Very few players, never mind short-stops in baseball can match that, so if Tulo can stay on the field for 150 games (not a given) he'll finish as the number 1 short-stop no doubt. That upside is so big, I'm willing to take the injury risk. The next 4 are pretty obvious, Castro is set for a big year and I think Desmond is another potentially underrated player - the power is completely legitimate although I don't know if he'll be so consistent.
As I've said, I think the Rangers would be wise to trade Andrus, although from a fantasy viewpoint staying at the top of their line-up is critical because steals and runs are pretty much his only commodities. I've never been a big Asdrubal Cabrera believer and I think last seasons 16 home runs are what to expect, not the freakish 25 from the year before. Escobar basically provides the same stats as Andrus but at a far cheaper price and both Rollins and Jeter are likely to regress but not enough to take them out of fantasy relevance assuming they stay injury free.
And, to complete the infield we head over to third base
1. Miguel Cabrera
2. Evan Longoria
3. Adrian Beltre
4. David Wright
5. Ryan Zimmerman
6. Chase Headley
7. Hanley Ramirez
8. Brett Lawire
9. Pablo Sandoval
10. Aramis Ramirez
Unlike the other infield positions, third base is once again very deep this year. Of course a repeat of his triple crown season is unlikely for Cabrera, but the fact remains that he is the best pure hitter in baseball. He will hit for a .300 average, 35 home runs, 115 RBI and he'll probably have change to spare too. Have no qualms drafting him number 1. I'm taking Longoria 2 despite the injury concerns, because I think he has an MVP season in him somewhere along the line and I'm going to want to ride it when it happens. Beltre is as consistent as they get at the hot corner, and Wright gets the nod over Zimmerman because of his consistency and surprising stolen base production.
This is where you know third base is deep, because MVP candidate Chase Headley is still on the board. Another criminally overrated player, I would have no hesitation before taking him over a big name like Ramirez. Spacious Petco limits his production, and I think 31 homers are unlikely to repeat, but Headley's performance this year was no fluke. Ramirez is another player I'd be happy to leave alone. His work rate is poor meaning he doesn't beat out ground balls he should, and he tends to get into frustrating slumps. He'll probably end up with 20 homers and 20 steals, but the average is going down and his temperament is not good. Lawrie is someone I preferred to leave alone with all the hype this season, but his speed/power combo contains a lot of upside so go after him this year. Don't overpay because of Sandoval's post-season performances, but if he can stay healthy all year he could turn a lot of heads.
So, now we turn it over to the outfield, which is obviously a lot deeper so I'll give you my top 30.
1. Mike Trout
2. Ryan Braun
3. Matt Kemp
4. Andrew McCutchen
5. Carlos Gonzalez
6. Giancarlo Stanton
7. Jose Bautista
8. Jason Heyward
9. Josh Hamilton
10. Justin Upton
11. Adam Jones
12. Matt Holliday
13. Austin Jackson
14. B.J. Upton
15. Yoenis Cespedes
16. Michael Bourn
17. Jay Bruce
18. Curtis Granderson
19. Jacoby Ellsbury
20. Bryce Harper
21. Shin-Soo Choo
22. Carlos Gomez
23. Josh Willingham
24. Alex Rios
25. Andre Ethier
26. Carlos Beltran
27. Nelson Cruz
28. Michael Morse
29. Josh Reddick
30. Melky Cabrera
Numbers 1 and 2 are clearly interchangeable on this list, I've gone with Trout because of the incredible power/speed/average potential although if you're expecting a 2012 repeat you may be a little disappointed. Don't be tempted to choose a sexy pick like McCutchen or Heyward over Braun - Braun is as consistent a player as they come and has proven he can hit 40 homers with or without Prince Fielder. Stanton is one to watch for me, his power potential is simply staggering. I expect Carlos Gonzalez to bounce back from a bit of a power drop in 2012 with the return of Troy Tulowitzki and he might drop down a few draft boards. Despite an injury-plagued season, Jose Bautista remains a top option, so again don't be scared to draft him. Temper expectations on Hamilton - in fact avoid if possible regardless of where he ends up. The way he ended the season left a sour taste in my mouth, although as always if he can stay on the field he will hit 30+ homers - just be prepared for icy cold droughts.
The second tier is a mix of high-upside and reliable guys. Again, Matt Holliday is not a popular pick that will have fellow draftees crowing in your genius, but he can win fantasy leagues with his reliability. The average is always above .290 and the home run totals always catch you by surprise. He'll be criminally underrated on draft day, don't miss out on him. I expect Justin Upton to bounce back, although I won't be spending a really early pick on him. Cespedes, B.J. Upton and Austin Jackson are all guys who could easily finish the season in the top 10, so are potentially bargains if you manage to predict which one has a monster season. Two guys I would avoid if possible are in the low teens - Ellsbury and Granderson. Ellsbury was dire even when on the field last season, and rumours the Red Sox are trying to sell him doesn't inspire confidence. Granderson is an astonishing beneficiary of the right field porch at Yankee Stadium, but his strikeout rate just continues to rise (195 this year) so the average could be a killer. Don't like that the steals have dropped off the table either.
Bryce Harper probably stands out at 20, but as he showed in glimpses this year he's simply a phenomenal talent. I think it'll take a couple of years for the average to come round and the strike-outs to fall, but his power is undoubtedly an asset and he's a risk worth taking if you want some pop. Choo is another 'boring' pick, someone from the Ben Zobrist school of baseball with reliability in the steals, power and average department but the distinct lack of upside. Rios will not repeat his 2012 season, but still provides a lot of value, as does Carlos Beltran who's skills may be fading but his 32 homers this year are certainly not to be sniffed at. Cruz and Ethier offer upside as bounce-back candidates, whilst I've begrudgingly included Melky Cabrera on this list because I think he'll help you out in a lot of categories atop a suddenly strong Blue Jays line-up.
So, there you have it. My 7th December hitters rankings and early thoughts. Not a whole lot that is off-the-wall, but probably a few areas to dispute over, so obviously comment below if you disagree or heck, maybe even agree!
Pitchers to come at some stage over the weekend I hope.
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