We'll kick off the series in the AL West, and the current pace-setters both of the West and the American League, the Los Angeles Angels.
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The 2014 Story
After two straight seasons of disappointment in 2012 and 2013 led to a grand total of zero play-off games, the Angels have righted the ship in a major way in 2014. Perennial MVP candidate Mike Trout has once again led the way after signing a six-year, 140 million dollar contract in the off-season, hitting .291/.378/.565 to date and reaching the 30 home run plateau last night. Albert Pujols has quelled any concerns about his sudden and stunning descent into mediocrity by hitting a respectable .276/.333/.469, but the real line-up boost has come from breakout candidate Kole Calhoun who has made the lead-off spot his own to the tune of an .816 OPS. Josh Hamilton has continued to struggle with injuries and form making his contract look increasingly bloated, whilst David Freese has provided few answers for the Halos at the hot corner.
On the rubber, the Angels have seen their biggest revelation, and the one major reason for it is the success of 26 year old flame-thrower Garrett Richards. Having struggled to secure his spot in the rotation ever since his call-up in 2011, Richards had come into his own this season as the ace of the staff with a 2.61 ERA and 8.75 K/9 until a devastating knee injury cut his season short. Hector Santiago and Matt Shoemaker have pitched well above their expected contributions this season, whilst Jered Weaver and CJ Wilson have done their best to combat declining repertoires. Highly touted young left-hander Tyler Skaggs was having a strong second stint with the Angels until an injury to his UCL resigned him to Tommy John surgery and likely ruled him out of the entire 2015 season. In the bullpen, Ernesto Frieri struggled in the closer role, and was then traded, but mid-season acquisition Huston Street has thrived in his place, saving 10 games with a 1.20 ERA since joining the Angels. Joe Smith, Fernando Salas and Mike Morin have also combined to turn a previous weakness into a strength this season.
Major Potential Free Agents
Huston Street, RP ($7m club option)
The Angels don't have many major players hitting free agency this winter, with their only real dilemma coming in the form of Huston Street. Considering the Angels struggles to find a consistent closer and the success of Street in 2014, it would surprise me if they didn't exercise this option given the obvious discount compared to market value. David Freese will be eligible for arbitration for the second year, and after agreeing to a $5m dollar deal this past winter, the Angels might be happy to cut ties this season depending on Freese's demands. Howie Kendrick and Chris Iannetta will both be entering the final years of team-friendly contracts, although how much money will be available for extensions remains to be seen.
Off-Season Plan
Assuming the Angels don't implode down the stretch, they'll make the play-offs, at least as a wildcard, and will have a decent chance to go deep, although the injury to Richards leaves them without a clear ace. After making major free agent splashes in 2011 (Pujols and C.J. Wilson) and 2012 (Hamilton) and given the state of the market this off-season, it's unlikely that they'll be particularly active this winter. However, there are still some holes to fill in the line-up, as well as a bullpen to fortify so they could make a few under the radar moves to boost their 2015 chances.
Pitching: Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson are both signed to long, expensive deals and will presumably retain their spots in the rotation given their diminishing trade value. Garrett Richards is expected to make a full recovery in time for opening day, and will assuredly shoot straight to the top of the pecking order when he does so. Hector Santiago has proven an extremely astute acquisition by the Halos, and will only hit arbitration this winter, so he'll most likely retain his spot. Matt Shoemaker has emerged as not only a viable fifth starter, but a valuable member of the rotation this season, and he'll stay extremely affordable until at least 2017. Assuming none of these starters suffer from injury, I expect the Angels to return the same starting five next year, with Skaggs unlikely to get back on a mound until 2016.
In the bullpen, the Halos will likely exercise their option on Huston Street and he will return to ninth inning duty. Jason Grilli will hit free agency, but given his declining effectiveness, this won't be a major factor for the Angels considering Fernando Salas, Mike Morin, Joe Smith and Kevin Jepsen will all be returning to the Angels 'pen next season. Vinnie Pestano and Cam Bedrosian are both high upside relievers that have disappointed this season but should have impacts in 2015. One area the Angels will need to find an upgrade is in left-handed relief, with Joe Thatcher hitting free agency. With arms like Phil Coke, Tom Gorzelanny and Andrew Miller hitting the market this winter, the Angels will presumably look for a cheap option to bolster their battery.
Hitting: The Angels boast one of the more dangerous line-ups in baseball, at least on paper, and with none of their stars hitting free agency this winter, it's hard to imagine them making much of a splash. David Freese has struggled in his time with the Angels (1.2 WAR this season), but assuming they can get him back at a reasonable discount he's probably their starting third baseman on opening day next season. Should they look for an upgrade, Chase Headley, Pablo Sandoval and ex-Angel Alberto Callaspo will all become available this winter. Other than at third base, the Angels have few areas that need upgrading, so will likely look for a left-handed partner to platoon CJ Cron as designated hitter and act as a bench option. Adam Dunn, Ichiro Suzuki and Nate Schierholtz will all be potential options for the Angels to consider. Other than that, it will be filling out the bench for the Angels, who have most positions locked down for the near future.
Trade Possibilities
The Angels have a depleted farm system after seasons of trading away their best talent as well as poor drafting and developing. Taylor Lindsey and Kaleb Cowart are two infield prospects with upside, but both have a lot of developing left in the minors and are unlikely to demand much attention in trade talks. I'd be surprised if the Angels make anything other than minor moves this off-season, and it's likely to be that way for the foreseeable future given the massive and lengthy contracts they've handed out to Pujols, Hamilton and C.J. Wilson as well as the depleted state of their farm. With several players entering the last season of their contracts, the Angels may look to extend some players, or indeed trade them away, but given how competitive they've been this season, I think the Angels will wait until at least June 2015 to really assess their roster.
Overview
The Angels are unlikely to do much this winter, and in their defense, why should they. The team that's been touted as one of the best in the AL has finally come through on the promises this year, and with a line-up that boasts a lot of potential and a rotation that is finally consistent and productive, it would take a number of injuries or mishaps for the Halos to make much noise this off-season.
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